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WVRed
05-07-2006, 08:53 AM
Any idea who we could be taking this year? I'd love to get Ian Kennedy, but I doubt he would drop to us. Maybe Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain?

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2006, 09:37 AM
I was a huge Ian Kennedy fan coming into this year, but considering that his velocity has dropped a little bit this season and his overall numbers aren't that great, I would be disappointed if the Reds drafted him with the 8th pick. Right now I would be happy with one of the following: LHP Andrew Miller(UNC), RHP Daniel Bard(UNC), RHP Brandon Morrow(Cal), RHP Max Scherzer(Missouri), or RHP Joba Chamberlain(Nebraska). Only two college hitters are even remotely worth taking with the 8th pick, and they are SS/3B Evan Longoria from Long Beach State and 1B Matt LaPorta from Florida. LaPorta has had a down season this year because of an injury but the potential is there for to take a Mark Teixeira path to the majors and eventually become a very good hitter.

Below are the 2006 stats for each pitcher I'm interested in with the 8th overall pick.

Andrew Miller-75.1 IP, 58 H, 1 HR, 21 BB, 79 K, 1.05 WHIP, 1.91 ERA

Daniel Bard-67.1 IP, 51 H, 4 HR, 26 BB, 73 K, 1.15 WHIP, 3.61 ERA

Brandon Morrow-93.1 IP, 65 H, 5 HR, 36 BB, 96 K, 1.09 WHIP, 1.74 ERA

Max Scherzer-45.2 IP, 32 H, 2 HR, 16 BB, 54 K, 1.06 WHIP, 2.36 ERA

Joba Chamberlain-62.1 IP, 52 H, 3 HR, 27 BB, 71 K, 1.27 WHIP, 3.61 ERA

Daniel Bard is the best and most realistic pick for the Reds. I obviously want Andrew Miller the most, but he will likely go No. 1 or 2 overall. Bard possesses the typical power pitcher frame at 6'4" and 205 pounds. Bard and fellow North Carolina left-hander Andrew Miller were rated the top two prospects in the Cape Cod League. He features a mid-90's fastball, a plus slider, and an improving changeup that he uses to get out lefthanded hitters. Bard is very comparable to Detroit pitcher Justin Verlander in both size and stuff wise.

The two hitters:

Evan Longoria-.355/.485/.625 36 bb/25 k

Matt LaPorta-.246/.386/.514 12 HR 21 bb/28 k

Player Bio's

Andrew Miller (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/miller_andrew00.html)
Daniel Bard (http://tarheelblue.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/bard_daniel00.html)
Brandon Morrow (http://calbears.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/morrow_brandon00.html)
Max Scherzer (http://mutigers.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/mtt/scherzer_max00.html)
Joba Chamberlain (http://www.huskers.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=104&SPID=33&DB_OEM_ID=100&ATCLID=107702&Q_SEASON=2005)
Evan Longoria (http://www.longbeachstate.com/bbo/bbc/BIO/biobbclongoria05.htm)
Matt LaPorta (http://gatorzone.com/baseball/bios.php?year=2006&bio=laporta.html)

edabbs44
05-07-2006, 10:38 AM
I want the top college pitcher on the board. Anythin else would be a huge disappointment.

lollipopcurve
05-07-2006, 12:01 PM
I'd put Drew Stubbs right there with Longoria and Laporta as the top college position player. Plus-plus defensive centerfielder with great speed and power potential at the plate. If the bat doesn't come around all that well, you still have a very good defensive CF who probably is not far from the majors.

edabbs44
05-07-2006, 12:41 PM
I'd put Drew Stubbs right there with Longoria and Laporta as the top college position player. Plus-plus defensive centerfielder with great speed and power potential at the plate. If the bat doesn't come around all that well, you still have a very good defensive CF who probably is not far from the majors.

Not sure I agree here. Using last year's top choice on Bruce would lead me to believe, best case scenario, with a long-term OF of Dunn, Kearns and Bruce. Close to the majors pitching is badly needed.

dougdirt
05-07-2006, 12:47 PM
edabbs, it is a notion of most scouts that Jay will outgrow the CF position by the time he is ready for the majors and will eventually play a corner spot. So a CF wouldnt be a bad idea, but I do agree the Reds should go pitching at #8.

Mario-Rijo
05-07-2006, 02:12 PM
I like Joba Chamberlain. I read an article on him somewhere about him having great make-up to go along with his good stuff. He did have some tri-ceps tendinitis this past season but I don't know of any pitchers these days that don't have some issues with their arms.

After a quick search here is the article.


Article on Joba Chamberlain:

CHARLESTON, S.C.--After his team's spirited ninth-inning comeback attempt against Nebraska fell short, North Carolina State coach Elliott Avent wanted to speak to one player immediately. Getting up from his stance in the third-base coaching box, Avent looked over the Nebraska players coming out of their dugout and walked right up to Joba Chamberlain.

"You can say what you want about his stuff, but his makeup is off the charts. And he has great stuff," Avent said. "That's what I told him."

Chamberlain held Avent's team, which had scored 105 runs in its first six games, without a run on four hits for 7 1/3 innings in his first start of the year. That same Wolfpack team hung three quick runs on Nebraska's bullpen before that game finished with a 4-3 score, and then posted 18 more runs over its next two games.

N.C. State's offense was good; Chamberlain simply was better. He fired 92-96 mph fastballs with pinpoint accuracy, felt the confidence to throw curveballs and sliders for strikes in 3-1 and 3-2 counts and mixed in his changeup as he threw 100 pitches in his season debut.

"In different counts, he'll do things normal pitchers don't do," said N.C. State third baseman Matt Mangini, who's batting .730-3-21 on the year. "He's a pitcher who pitches and doesn’t give in."

As impressive as a repertoire that includes four pitches that are at least average is, one National League scouting director in attendance came away with a feeling similar to Avent's.

"His fastball got to 96 three times in the first inning, he showed two good breaking balls and his changeup wasn't too shabby, either," the veteran scout said. "But he really competed out there. He knew all of us were here and he knew that team could hit, and he really showed me something the way he competed his first time out. He was so poised."

Chamberlain's success against N.C. State shouldn't have proven much of a surprise to anyone who remembered his 2005 season. The 6-foot-3 righthander developed as Nebraska's ace with a 10-2, 2.81 record and 130 strikeouts in 119 innings to lead the Cornhuskers to a Big 12 regular season title and their third trip to the College World Series in five years. The Lincoln, Neb., native even started the CWS opener and pitched Nebraska to its first Omaha victory in school history.

His first big win came at Rice in his second start of the season. He held the Owls to an unearned run on four hits over 6 1/3 innings while recording nine strikeouts. He faces Rice again Saturday as Nebraska travels to Houston for the Coca-Cola Classic.

Chamberlain's emergence as that type of ace--one that figures to be a first-round pick this June--was one of the season's biggest surprises. It was also a success story that even the pitcher himself wouldn't have believed just three years earlier, when he was playing first and third base at Lincoln's Northeast High.

"If you had told me that (I'd start in the CWS for Nebraska), I would have said 'Can I buy that dream from you? What future planet are you living on?' " Chamberlain said. "As a kid growing up in Nebraska, you can't help but watch college baseball and dream about playing in the College World Series."

Chamberlain's path to fulfilling that dream didn't follow a natural course, though Chamberlain feels his unconventional roots, in baseball and in life, have played a major role in helping him develop the poise and competitive nature scouts, coaches and teammates rave about.

Anyone who attended a Nebraska game, or watched one on TV, has seen Chamberlain's father Harlan, clad in Nebraska gear and cheering his son on from his scooter. Harlan has been in the scooter since 1991 because of post-polio syndrome. He raised Joba and his older sister Trish as a single parent with an income so limited he often sold his own possessions to provide his children the toys and clothes they wanted.

"I didn't have a lot of things other people had, and my dad gave up a lot for us," Chamberlain said. "My dad has never once complained about anything. I admire that about him. How you're raised is how you become. I'm very thankful and very blessed to be in this situation. I've learned that things in life and in baseball don't come easy."

That's why a pitcher who went 3-2, 3.35 in 31 innings as a high school senior--the most he'd ever pitched in his life--and then 3-6, 5.23 at Division II Nebraska-Kearney never gave up his dream of pitching for Nebraska. Sure, he was curious why former Nebraska pitching coach Rob Childress left after two innings the first time Childress came to watch him at Kearney, but Childress eventually saw enough and brought Chamberlain in.

Chamberlain dropped 20 pounds during his first year at Nebraska, and the results were dramatic. He continued reshaping his body following his sophomore season, taming his eating habits and making better choices to trim 15 more pounds (and now is listed at 225 pounds) and reduce his body fat. He finished fourth on the Huskers team during fall agility drills. He also worked with new pitching coach Dave Bingham (Childress became Texas A&M’s head coach after 2005) to tweak his mechanics, instructions not every pitcher coming off an all-conference season might have wanted to follow.

Chamberlain now lands softer on his front side, which puts less stress on his legs and arm. His arm stroke feels freer, and, combined with the weight loss, he said he can better feel his body to detect mechanical flaws and then self-correct them. The results have been increased velocity and better command of his entire repertoire.

"I saw him throwing on the side one day in the fall, and it looked like he was 84-85 (mph) and it turned out he was 94," Nebraska coach Mike Anderson said. "He's just so much freer and looser."

Just like his persona on the mound. Chamberlain knows that if he shows his teammates he's in control, they'll feel more comfortable behind him. "I'll still show a fist pump every now and then," he said, but he's always working to keep things at an even keel. That extends off the field as well, where he's become something of a local celebrity. He appreciates all the attention he gets from media and fans. He'll sit for any interview and sign autographs for as many kids as approach him, though he admits he doesn't like to be bothered while he's eating.

Chamberlain's mindset is encapsulated in a tattoo on his right side that starts just below his armpit and runs down his side, a Bible verse from Galations 3:28. "There is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither bond nor free, there is neither male nor female, for ye are all one in Christ Jesus."

Chamberlain said there wasn't a long thought process into the inscription's placement. Thinking about it, however, maybe there is some irony in that a verse he said reminds him no one is better than anyone else is written directly below his powerful right arm. One that sets him apart from most other pitchers in the nation.

Not that'd he'd see it that way.

"All offseason it was Joba this and Joba that," Anderson said. "All the fans are talking about him and scouts have come to see him. I've seen too many kids get caught up in the hype and blow up. But he wasn't trying to blow up the (radar) gun, he just pitches his game."

Kc61
05-07-2006, 04:19 PM
At number 8 the Reds may well take the best high school pitcher on the board. In recent years they seem to be following the philosophy of taking them young. New GM now, but don't know if that will change the philosophy.

The problem with taking a college pitcher is that the best of them will likely be off the board by number 8. Reds may well prefer the top high school arm over the fifth or sixth top college arm.

Guy named Krenshaw is BA's top high school pitcher. If he's around at 8, don't be surprised if Reds take him.

KronoRed
05-07-2006, 04:26 PM
I want the top college pitcher on the board. Anythin else would be a huge disappointment.
I agree, I'd like someone who might be helping in 2-3 years not 5-6

dougdirt
05-07-2006, 05:03 PM
At number 8 the Reds may well take the best high school pitcher on the board. In recent years they seem to be following the philosophy of taking them young. New GM now, but don't know if that will change the philosophy.

The problem with taking a college pitcher is that the best of them will likely be off the board by number 8. Reds may well prefer the top high school arm over the fifth or sixth top college arm.

Guy named Krenshaw is BA's top high school pitcher. If he's around at 8, don't be surprised if Reds take him.

I have seen that talked about slightly in a few little "mock drafts". Thing is, I dont know how Krivsky and his team feel about drafting philosphy, so it is real hard to know what they will do. It seems Krenshaw has seperated himself from the rest of the HS arms this year after coming into the year as a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Draft is still a little bit away, but I cant wait.

Aronchis
05-07-2006, 05:18 PM
You may want to look into Buckley's drafts rather than Krivsky's. Matter of fact, I am not sure Krivsky has been on the "drafting/scouting/developmental" side of things much in his FO time through the years.

While I feel O'brien moved Renyolds to draft Bailey/Bruce because of a possible big resume payoff down the road, Krivsky may completely leave the top pick to Buckley(yeah, O'brien said the same thing, but I can't see Renyolds taking Bailey).

The_jbh
05-07-2006, 05:52 PM
I like that the nebraska guy throws 4 pitches for strikes... screams quality major league pitcher to me

New Fever
05-07-2006, 06:27 PM
Will Joba Chamberlain already be gone when the Reds pick 8th is the question? We know that Andrew Miller, Brandon Morrow, and Max Scherzer will be gone and the Dodgers usuually pick high schoolers, so Krenshaw will most likely be gone. Lincuem will probably go first and a couple hitters will probably go in the first seven as well.
So the Reds will probably be picking between Daniel Bard and Joba Chamberlain. I woud be happy with either. I hope they don't pick another high school pitcher.

edabbs44
05-07-2006, 07:44 PM
edabbs, it is a notion of most scouts that Jay will outgrow the CF position by the time he is ready for the majors and will eventually play a corner spot. So a CF wouldnt be a bad idea, but I do agree the Reds should go pitching at #8.

I've seen that as well but why would they have drafted him then? The old regime was probably banking on not signing Dunn and/or Kearns long term. But everything I've read on Stubbs is that he will not hit. If so, that will be a tough sell to the fans.

dougdirt
05-07-2006, 08:55 PM
Becuase you draft the best player available in my opinion, and he was the best guy available. He is pretty much tearing the cover off the ball in Dayton right now.

edabbs44
05-07-2006, 09:10 PM
Becuase you draft the best player available in my opinion, and he was the best guy available. He is pretty much tearing the cover off the ball in Dayton right now.

Best guy in our price range or best guy available? I think there were a few college pitchers (Pelfrey and Hansen, to name two) who were better.

Aronchis
05-07-2006, 09:10 PM
Amazing that Maybin and Bruce could be found in the same draft. I don't think there is a talent even close to them in this draft from HS.

Superdude
05-07-2006, 09:11 PM
I was a huge Ian Kennedy fan coming into this year, but considering that his velocity has dropped a little bit this season and his overall numbers aren't that great, I would be disappointed if the Reds drafted him with the 8th pick

I agree about Kennedy. Most of his stock was put into his great stats before, and a good year could have put him into Jered Weaver like category, but it sounds like both his stuff and stats have left him this year.

I like Bard, Scherzer, or Lincoln at #8. One of those 3 is bound to drop and would give us a potential ace with college exerience. If not though, Clayton Kershaw would be a prep pick with huge upside that might still be their.

I like the prep talent that could be available in the second round. Betances or Kiker would be awesome!

Superdude
05-07-2006, 09:12 PM
I was a huge Ian Kennedy fan coming into this year, but considering that his velocity has dropped a little bit this season and his overall numbers aren't that great, I would be disappointed if the Reds drafted him with the 8th pick

I agree about Kennedy. Most of his stock was put into his great stats before, and a good year could have put him into Jered Weaver like category, but it sounds like both his stuff and stats have left him this year.

I like Bard, Scherzer, or Lincoln at #8. One of those 3 is bound to drop and would give us a potential ace with college exerience. If not though, Clayton Kershaw would be a prep pick with huge upside that might still be their.

I like the prep talent that could be available in the second round. Betances or Kiker would be awesome. I'm so excited for the draft! :birthday:

dougdirt
05-07-2006, 09:32 PM
Amazing that Maybin and Bruce could be found in the same draft. I don't think there is a talent even close to them in this draft from HS.
Lets not forget that McCutchen and Upton also from HS were in that draft too. As for the HS talent this year, truthfully we wont know for a few years if there is comparable talent, well at least as far as 3 out of the 4 listed (there is no Justin Upton in this years draft). As far as percieved talent coming into the draft, like you say there isnt anyone in this draft that is comparable, hitting wise. I usually get ripped for this around here, but if the Reds took Kershaw I wouldnt be too disappointed if the right college pitcher werent there.

edabbs44
05-07-2006, 11:10 PM
Lets not forget that McCutchen and Upton also from HS were in that draft too. As for the HS talent this year, truthfully we wont know for a few years if there is comparable talent, well at least as far as 3 out of the 4 listed (there is no Justin Upton in this years draft). As far as percieved talent coming into the draft, like you say there isnt anyone in this draft that is comparable, hitting wise. I usually get ripped for this around here, but if the Reds took Kershaw I wouldnt be too disappointed if the right college pitcher werent there.

Can't argue there, but it seems like there will be at least one or two top college SPs around when they pick. Then go HS in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.

Superdude
05-08-2006, 12:02 AM
The positional talent in this draft sucks. Laporta, Stubbs, and Longoria are the best college hitters and none of them are all that great. Parmalee, Sapp, and Cody Johnson is about it when it comes to the prep ranks.

The pitching is where it's at this year. I think the college pitchers of this draft, although some are underachieving, have a good chance of matching the '04 college crop talent wise. It sounds like Hochever is coming back also. Kershaw is the superstud high school arm, followed by Willems, Jeffress, Walden, Anderson, Betances, Latos, Kiker...so the depth of high school arms makes for an interesting second round.

flyer85
05-08-2006, 12:13 AM
I really like Bard and he could fall to the Reds

lollipopcurve
05-08-2006, 09:27 AM
followed by Willems, Jeffress, Walden, Anderson, Betances, Latos, Kiker...so the depth of high school arms makes for an interesting second round.

With all the supplemental picks between the first and second rounds, it's unlikely any of these guys will see round two.

edabbs44
05-08-2006, 09:34 AM
With all the supplemental picks between the first and second rounds, it's unlikely any of these guys will see round two.

Speaking of which, can anyone remember the last time Cincinnati had a supplemental pick? I think it was Moseley. My point is that Cincy is typically panic stricken at the deadline and seemingly makes trades for the sake of it. Minny and Oakland are the pros of this...either keep your pending FAs or trade for a pending FA at the deadline and let them walk. Collect supplemental picks for a few months of salary. Load up your system. Hopefully Krivsky brought this philosophy over with him, b/c it is a quick way to boost up your farm system.

OnBaseMachine
05-08-2006, 10:30 AM
I really like Bard and he could fall to the Reds

Agreed. I will be incredibly ticked off if he falls to the Reds and they pass on him. He reminds me of Justin Verlander in terms of stuff and size. I think he has the stuff to be a No. 1 o 2 starter, plus he could move fast through the system. Bard, Wood, and Bailey could make for a tough top three someday if they pan out.

flyer85
05-08-2006, 12:45 PM
He reminds me of Justin Verlander in terms of stuff and size. and also the way his collegiate career has gone is similar to Verlander.

ochre
05-08-2006, 12:56 PM
Speaking of which, can anyone remember the last time Cincinnati had a supplemental pick? I think it was Moseley. My point is that Cincy is typically panic stricken at the deadline and seemingly makes trades for the sake of it. Minny and Oakland are the pros of this...either keep your pending FAs or trade for a pending FA at the deadline and let them walk. Collect supplemental picks for a few months of salary. Load up your system. Hopefully Krivsky brought this philosophy over with him, b/c it is a quick way to boost up your farm system.
I think Schramek was a supplemental pick.

The real pressing question is, or course, what round will the Reds take Loo this year?

dougdirt
05-08-2006, 01:14 PM
Ochre, Im leaning toward the 4th on Milton. hopefully they can avoid all this crap and sign him though.

edabbs44
05-08-2006, 01:16 PM
I think Schramek was a supplemental pick.

The real pressing question is, or course, what round will the Reds take Loo this year?

Forgot about that beauty of a pick...

flyer85
05-08-2006, 01:46 PM
Forgot about that beauty of a pick...the only reason they took Scramek was because they knew he would have to accept a lowball offer. He ended up getting around getting about 70% less than those drafted around him.

edabbs44
05-08-2006, 02:02 PM
the only reason they took Scramek was because they knew he would have to accept a lowball offer. He ended up getting around getting about 70% less than those drafted around him.

Too common of a tale when talking about Cincinnati drafts.

flyer85
05-08-2006, 02:08 PM
Too common of a tale when talking about Cincinnati drafts.actually there is no other good Reds example of a player like Schramek in recent years. It was a case where Bowden had a limited budget, a top pick and the sandwich pick which meant somebody was going to get a lowball offer.

Have the Reds drafted guys for signability reasons? Sure but not with serious lowball offers.

If the Reds had put up an extra 250K they could have signed Markakis.

Javy Pornstache
05-10-2006, 04:45 PM
I saw a mock draft, and I am not sure if it was very dated, but in it, the Reds were selecting LHP Brett Anderson out of high school. On this draft, only Andrew Miller and Max Scherzer were off the board among the most intriguing college arms. The other five picks besides these two and before the Reds at 8 were high schoolers and a college position player or two (Drew Stubbs was one, Longoria may have been there). Could have been from a few months ago, I didn't see a date on it. I also saw a note on Ian Kennedy that suggested his stock has fallen enough that he may no longer be a first round pick.....that'd be quite interesting.

OnBaseMachine
05-10-2006, 06:55 PM
I'd take Kennedy in the 2nd round if he falls to us.

edabbs44
05-10-2006, 06:57 PM
actually there is no other good Reds example of a player like Schramek in recent years. It was a case where Bowden had a limited budget, a top pick and the sandwich pick which meant somebody was going to get a lowball offer.

Have the Reds drafted guys for signability reasons? Sure but not with serious lowball offers.

If the Reds had put up an extra 250K they could have signed Markakis.

I think the Sowers situation was an embarrassment and a lowball offer when everyone knew he wasn't signing.

NC Reds
05-11-2006, 12:50 AM
Max Scherzer would be my first choice if available. Personally, I would like to see college starting pitchers taken with each of the first three picks. In the past, we reached badly on position players in the second/third (or supplemental) rounds; Dunn being the notable exception.

Superdude
05-11-2006, 01:14 AM
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20060509&content_id=1444921&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp

Here's a link to mlb.com's mock draft. They've got the Reds taking Drew Stubbs with Bard and Scherzer still on the board. :thumbdown

New Fever
05-11-2006, 02:26 AM
This Draft is going to be crazy, some of those picks aren't even in the Top 20 in Baseball America Draft List. I hope the Reds don't pick a high school 3rd baseman with the 8th pick.

edabbs44
05-11-2006, 09:10 AM
This Draft is going to be crazy, some of those picks aren't even in the Top 20 in Baseball America Draft List. I hope the Reds don't pick a high school 3rd baseman with the 8th pick.

Nothing less than college pitching. Anything else and I will :cry: .

redsmetz
05-11-2006, 10:10 AM
I took a minute to look at Minnesota's drafts since Krivskey went there and they've had some good picks, including a number of pitchers who have made it up to the majors - most significantly Aaron Heilman (now with the Mets). Of course, Joe Mauer was durig that time (since 1999).

I think Minnesota's ability to keep the minors system stocked (whether for the ML club or for trades) was one reason Krivskey was attractive.

uk red
05-11-2006, 01:54 PM
BA said that Hochevar had a nice outing in an independent league game. I wouldn't mind grabbing him. He won't have much leverage after sitting out for a year and should sign for a fair amount. Of course the Dogers may still sign him?

dougdirt
05-11-2006, 02:24 PM
After nearly a year of negotiations with Hochever, I doubt he signs with the Dodgers.

Aronchis
05-11-2006, 04:33 PM
I took a minute to look at Minnesota's drafts since Krivskey went there and they've had some good picks, including a number of pitchers who have made it up to the majors - most significantly Aaron Heilman (now with the Mets). Of course, Joe Mauer was durig that time (since 1999).

I think Minnesota's ability to keep the minors system stocked (whether for the ML club or for trades) was one reason Krivskey was attractive.

I would look at Chris Buckley's work rather than the Twins. Krivsky wasn't much into the prep scouting/drafting/development side of things. Buckley worked for the Blue Jays. His drafts have a tendency to be top heavy looking for franchise talent, not overly different than O'brien era drafts.

Superdude
05-12-2006, 12:40 AM
I hope the Reds don't pick a high school 3rd baseman with the 8th pick.

I'd never even heard of Bill Rowell before. I guess a 6'5"/195 frame is always nice, but I agree that a high school third basemen would be a dissappointment with somebody like Bard available.

Clemson
05-12-2006, 02:35 AM
I have heard that the reds are very high on rowell. he's a kinda cocky kid, but he ahs a sweet lefty swing from what i've seen. most of his experience this far is at ss though

edabbs44
05-12-2006, 01:31 PM
From Gammons yesterday...would anyone have a problem with Hochevar?

Independent proving groundposted: Thursday, May 11, 2006

More than 50 scouts were in Fort Worth to watch Luke Hochevar on Monday night in an independent American Association exhibition game.
Oh yes. Mopping up in relief was Matt Harrington, beginning his fourth season as a Fort Worth Cat.

Hochevar could be back in the June 6 draft if the Dodgers do not get him signed before June 4. While L.A. scouting director Logan White was in attendance, there seems to be industry-wide doubt that the Dodgers will be able to sign Hochevar. Which, since this may be the weakest draft since 2000, could put Hochevar up in the top 10 picks.

You may or may not know the story. Hochevar, a junior at the University of Tennessee, was considered a tough sign because of Scott Boras and lasted until the 40th selection, in the sandwich round. The Dodgers originally could not get him signed, but when Hochevar switched agents from Boras to Matt Sosnick, a deal was worked out for $2.98 million.

Only Hochevar jumped back to Boras, the deal was off the table, and the 22-year-old right-handed pitcher is a Fort Worth Cat. Like the 24-year-old Harrington.

"Hochevar was pretty impressive," says one major league executive. "He was 92 to 97, and sat regularly at 94-95. He's healthy, which everyone wanted to see. He does tend to spin at the end of his delivery which makes it tough for him to get in on right-handed batters, but he's a quality prospect in a year when there aren't many quality arms."

The question in most scouting directors' minds is what it will take to sign Hochevar, and whether he is willing to risk sitting around for another year and becoming a repeat Cat.

If $2.98 million is not enough ...

Maybe he should ask Harrington how he enjoys his day job. Matt was a top-10 pick once, the seventh pick in the 2000 draft. He turned down $4.1 million from the Colorado Rockies, but had no school to attend and had to get a day job.

After the Colorado fiasco, Harrington switched agents from Tommy Tanzer to Boras, and in 2001 was drafted in the second round by the San Diego Padres. At the advice of Boras, he turned down more than $1 million.

In 2002, Harrington was drafted in the 13th round by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In 2003, he was drafted in the 24th round by the Cincinnati Reds. In 2004, he was drafted in the 36th round by the Yankees.

In 2005, he finally went undrafted and was -- and still is -- free to sign with any major-league team.

That hasn't happened. He is entering his fourth season with Fort Worth, for whom he has pitched in 62 games with a 10-11 record and 4.00 ERA.

"Harrington was throwing 84-85," said the executive. "His stuff wasn't close to what it was six years ago. It was very sad."

Hochevar pitches in a regular-season game on Saturday night. Harrington might mop up, or he might not. Hochevar is trying to prove that $2.5 million or $2.98 million -- or whatever -- was not enough, and if someone drafts him and sticks to a slotted number, maybe he will stick to his principle and bring the scouts back to Fort Worth next year at this time.

Harrington was advised to stick to his principles. He lost $4.1 million and then $1 million, but he's got 10 wins as a Fort Worth Cat.

jbonireland
05-12-2006, 04:13 PM
I don't know if anyone saw the artiicle by Jonathon Mayo, but he projects the Reds picking 8th and taking Drew Stubbs CF from the University of Texas. Beleves the Reds will take best player available. He believes top pitchers will be gone by that pick. Anyone have any thoughts on Stubbs?

edabbs44
05-12-2006, 04:16 PM
I don't know if anyone saw the artiicle by Jonathon Mayo, but he projects the Reds picking 8th and taking Drew Stubbs CF from the University of Texas. Beleves the Reds will take best player available. He believes top pitchers will be gone by that pick. Anyone have any thoughts on Stubbs?


:barf:

Javy Pornstache
05-12-2006, 04:53 PM
The farm system is certainly devoid of positional players now, although that was the one thing people always hung their hat on about the Reds system (when FORCED to say something nice about it). I liked the Jay Bruce pick last year, but I can't say I wouldn't be disappointed if they selected another position player first. I DO like Stubbs and LaPorta, but with the college pitchers at the top of this draft, it's almost a certainty at least a couple of the better ones mentioned in this thread will be there at 8. It'd be a shame if the Reds didn't get one this time.

Aronchis
05-12-2006, 05:02 PM
The farm system is certainly devoid of positional players now, although that was the one thing people always hung their hat on about the Reds system (when FORCED to say something nice about it). I liked the Jay Bruce pick last year, but I can't say I wouldn't be disappointed if they selected another position player first. I DO like Stubbs and LaPorta, but with the college pitchers at the top of this draft, it's almost a certainty at least a couple of the better ones mentioned in this thread will be there at 8. It'd be a shame if the Reds didn't get one this time.

I agree. Votto and Bruce are the only "real" prospect bats we have that are functioning. Rosales has hit the injury bug and the other college talent usually isn't that good.

lollipopcurve
05-12-2006, 05:03 PM
I like the fact Stubbs is considered a top notch defensive CF with great speed. College hitters have projected well, so I think he'd make a relatively safe pick.

No guarantee on any of these pitchers, college or HS.

edabbs44
05-12-2006, 05:09 PM
The one thing people value more than most is young pitching. When deals need to be made, it's always nice to have a surplus there for trading purposes.

lollipopcurve
05-12-2006, 05:16 PM
The one thing people value more than most is young pitching. When deals need to be made, it's always nice to have a surplus there for trading purposes.

This may be true, but outstanding position player prospects can be nice chips too (see Hanley Ramirez, the centerpeice of the Beckett deal, and Daric Barton, the main piece in the Mulder deal).

edabbs44
05-12-2006, 05:27 PM
This may be true, but outstanding position player prospects can be nice chips too (see Hanley Ramirez, the centerpeice of the Beckett deal, and Daric Barton, the main piece in the Mulder deal).

Agreed. But Anibel Sanchez and Danny Haren were involved as well. Basically any successful prospect will be key, but I think arms are more coveted than bats.

flyer85
05-12-2006, 05:28 PM
After nearly a year of negotiations with Hochever, I doubt he signs with the Dodgers.he likely won't get more money by going back into the draft. Two Boras clients held out and signed at the 11th hour last year, I'd say there is a good chance he does the same this year.

flyer85
05-12-2006, 05:30 PM
I like the fact Stubbs is considered a top notch defensive CF with great speed. College hitters have projected well, so I think he'd make a relatively safe pick.although I have read a lot on him that he does not project as a good hitter. Great athlete and great CF with a questionable bat. We already have one of those in BJ.

IslandRed
05-12-2006, 06:03 PM
I like the fact Stubbs is considered a top notch defensive CF with great speed. College hitters have projected well, so I think he'd make a relatively safe pick.

I've heard the opposite on Stubbs, actually... his speed and defense are unquestioned, but people are wondering if he'll hit. He's anything but safe. His overall production is good but not earth-shaking for the aluminum-bat world, and he whiffs a lot. A high strikeout rate is not necessarily a bad thing if it comes attached to a proven power hitter (and let's leave Adam Dunn and the like out of this thread) but it's a concern for an alleged Top-10 prospect to have trouble making contact against college pitching swinging a metal bat.

I'm paraphrasing, but one of the BP guys quoted a scout saying Stubbs was the type of player you hoped was gone when your pick came around. You didn't necessarily want to pick him, but you might look really stupid passing on him.

Superdude
05-12-2006, 07:31 PM
If we're gonna take an outfielder with Bard still available, he better be a sure thing, and like Flyer85 said, Stubbs just looks like a slight upgrade to Szymanski right now. Here's his numbers compared to some other picks...

Drew Stubbs: 198AB .338/.438/.606 11HR 20SB
Ryan Braun: 219AB .388/.471/.726 18HR 23SB
Alex Gordon 211AB .365/.493/.754 18HR 12SB
B.J. Szymanski 177AB .362/.433/.610 6HR 11SB

BuckeyeRedleg
05-12-2006, 07:52 PM
I agree. Votto and Bruce are the only "real" prospect bats we have that are functioning. Rosales has hit the injury bug and the other college talent usually isn't that good.

Drew Anderson (a Buckeye) is absolutely tearing up the FSL right now. And B.J. and Janish are finally raking in Dayton. If I had to rate them by position, I'd probably go with

C- PEREZ (high A)
1B- VOTTO (AA)
2B- ANDERSON (high A)
SS- JANISH (low A), ROSALES (high A)
3B- HERR? (AA)

OF- BRUCE (low A)
OF- SZYMANSKI (low A)
OF- STRAIT (high A)
OF- DICKERSON (high A)

In order:

1. Bruce
2. Votto
3. Szymanski
4. Janish
5. Rosales
6. Strait
7. Anderson
8. Dickerson
9. Herr

Does this order look about right for position prospects?

Superdude
05-12-2006, 08:35 PM
And B.J. and Janish are finally raking in Dayton.

Szymanski's powr has been impressive, but isn't he still batting like .240?

edabbs44
05-12-2006, 08:55 PM
.

Szymanski's powr has been impressive, but isn't he still batting like .240?

In a league he is much too old for.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-12-2006, 09:10 PM
.

Szymanski's powr has been impressive, but isn't he still batting like .240?

He does have a .496 SLG% (12th in MWL) and 8 HR's (2nd in MWL) and has come along way since his huge slump out of the gate. Let's not forget that he's coming back from a season-ending injury last year and he's not been out of college even two years yet. Take away last year's injury and he may be playing at Hi A or AA right now. I'm sure he and Janish will be promoted soon anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him at AA sometime this year.

Superdude
05-12-2006, 09:43 PM
Janish has been great, but even with Szymanski's recent turn-around, he's gonna have to prove he can do more than just survive low-A pitching at 22-23 year old.

mound_patrol
05-18-2006, 12:00 PM
Our closer at Indiana State had lunch with a D-backs scout yesturday and the D-backs want and think they will be getting Bard for their first pick. You can take that for what it's worth. I'd rather pass on him and take a college arm.

dougdirt
05-18-2006, 12:38 PM
MLB.com has the Reds taking Drew Stubbs in their latest Mock Draft.

edabbs44
05-18-2006, 07:04 PM
MLB.com has the Reds taking Drew Stubbs in their latest Mock Draft.
:barf:

We need pitching.

WVRed
05-18-2006, 07:22 PM
:barf:

We need pitching.

I'll take anything at this point. With a farm system ranked dead last, BPA sounds fine to me.

Superdude
05-19-2006, 12:03 AM
With a farm system ranked dead last, BPA sounds fine to me.

I agree. I just hope Stubbs isn't the BPA.

Outshined_One
05-19-2006, 01:36 AM
*Cracks knuckles*

This is one of my favorite times of the year. :D

To start out, I really hate to be a Debbie Downer, but...I have a list of Scott Boras' college clients:

Luke Hochevar
Max Scherzer
Ian Kennedy
Matt LaPorta
Jason Donald
Colin Curtis

Overall, this is a bad year for position players. In college, Stubbs has terrific potential, but he's been having production problems lately. SS Evan Longoria, arguably the most hilarious name in the draft, is probably the top college position player...yet only projects to be decent as a position player. LaPorta has awesome power, but has struggled. Chad Tracy is supposedly Mike Piazza without the power. After that, it gets bleak...

HS is not that good, either. 3B Chris Marrero has great tools, but hasn't performed well. 3B/OF Billy Rowell is really athletic, 6'5 with a good frame and speed, but reminds me a little too much of Cubs bust-turned mediocre OF Luis Montanez. Everyone else either doesn't have the tools or doesn't have the performance record to really get hopes up about them. Guys like Conger and Parmelee have been slipping because of that.

The pitchers are a little better. College-wise...Andrew Miller will probably go #1 overall. If not him, then likely Tim Lincecum. Brandon Morrow out of California is probably the most intriguing guy out there, as he's finally managed to harness his incredible stuff with a productive season. Scherzer is terrific, but his injuries are a matter of concern. Ditto Joba Chamberlain. Ian Kennedy's velocity has taken a dive.

In HS, Clayton Kershaw has been flying up the charts. He's committed to Texas and might be hard to pry away, though. Kyle Drabek is incredibly talented, but apparently needs to work on maturity issues. Chris Tillman is a project, albeit a tantalizing one. Jeremy Jeffress is on the smaller side, but apparently has touched 100 mph this spring and has a nice delivery.

Most people don't sound too thrilled with this draft in terms of its overall talent. That said, this isn't a good draft to be looking at position players, from all accounts.

lollipopcurve
05-19-2006, 10:40 AM
Most people don't sound too thrilled with this draft in terms of its overall talent. That said, this isn't a good draft to be looking at position players, from all accounts.

Seems to be lacking in top-top shelf talent. But there are always players to be found. Will be interesting to see how the first Buckley-led draft goes. I'm guessing heavy college.

flyer85
05-19-2006, 12:18 PM
If the Reds pass on Bard they should be shot

dougdirt
05-19-2006, 12:29 PM
If the Reds pass on Bard they should be shot

You say that now, but you have no idea what the future holds for him, or for whoever the Reds will end up taking if its not Bard.

lollipopcurve
05-19-2006, 12:46 PM
If the Reds pass on Bard they should be shot

Interesting. I like when folks really get behind a player. Makes it fun to see how the guy pans out.

On the other hand, it annoys me when a player gets trashed the moment he's drafted. That's draftnickery, I guess.

edabbs44
05-19-2006, 01:09 PM
Please do not post premium content from Baseball America. We have been contacted by their attorneys regarding this matter. Thank you. -GIK (5.31.06)

flyer85
05-19-2006, 02:17 PM
You say that now, but you have no idea what the future holds for him, or for whoever the Reds will end up taking if its not Bard.career and stuff reminds of Verlander and if he was pitching to his stuff he would be the 1st or 2nd player picked. He has a huge upside, of course with pitchers you never really know.

dougdirt
05-19-2006, 02:31 PM
career and stuff reminds of Verlander and if he was pitching to his stuff he would be the 1st or 2nd player picked. He has a huge upside, of course with pitchers you never really know.

Ok, maybe I am missing something here, but you seem to know about him while I can just look at his stats. What in his career reminds you of Verlander? Look at both of their stats for their first 2 years in college.



Justin Verlander
Year W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO h9 hr9 w9 k9 whip
2002 7 6 1.91 113.0 83 34 24 2 43 137 6.61 0.16 3.42 10.91 1.12
2003 7 6 2.40 116.1 94 44 31 2 43 139 7.27 0.15 3.33 10.75 1.18

Daniel Bard
Year W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO h9 hr9 w9 k9 whip
2004 8 4 3.88 95.0 94 49 41 7 31 68 8.91 0.66 2.94 6.44 1.32
2005 7 5 4.22 89.2 73 53 42 8 43 77 7.33 0.80 4.32 7.73 1.29


Verlander had an ERA a ton better, pitched more innings, allowed fewer hits per 9, fewer walks per 9, fewer HR per 9, a ton more walks per 9, and a whip lower by a bit.

Aronchis
05-19-2006, 02:35 PM
Brad Morrow has the best pure stuff in this draft. Bard is just a thrower. If the Reds landed Morrow, that would be a major coo.

15fan
05-19-2006, 02:46 PM
I guess it's about time for me to start stumping for Matt Antonelli.

(I'll also get on the record & say that in '08, I'll be stumping for Allan Dykstra.)

Here's another name for the '06 draft:

Danny Almonte

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/draft2006/news/story?id=2450606

flyer85
05-19-2006, 03:24 PM
Ok, maybe I am missing something here, but you seem to know about him while I can just look at his stats. What in his career reminds you of Verlander? Look at both of their stats for their first 2 years in college.

Verlander had an ERA a ton better, pitched more innings, allowed fewer hits per 9, fewer walks per 9, fewer HR per 9, a ton more walks per 9, and a whip lower by a bit.Verlander was pitching in the CAA. The CAA and ACC use the same letters but the level of competition is nowhere close.

dougdirt
05-19-2006, 03:33 PM
Yeah there is a dropoff in talent...I dunno, I am just not sold on Bard. I havent seen him pitch, but nothing about his numbers tell me he is that good. Miller, the ace of the staff has an ERA half that of him. If we were to take Bard, it would be only 6 or 7 spots apart from Miller, and Miller clearly is a much better pitcher, facing the same competition.
With all of that said, what the heck do I know? I am no scout, nor have I ever seen him pitch.

flyer85
05-19-2006, 03:43 PM
Yeah there is a dropoff in talent...I dunno, I am just not sold on Bard. I havent seen him pitch, but nothing about his numbers tell me he is that good. Miller, the ace of the staff has an ERA half that of him. If we were to take Bard, it would be only 6 or 7 spots apart from Miller, and Miller clearly is a much better pitcher, facing the same competition.
With all of that said, what the heck do I know? I am no scout, nor have I ever seen him pitch.not many were sold on Verlander before the draft and for most of the time until the final week BA had him being available when the Reds picked. There was quite a discussion on whether the Reds should take Verlander if he was to be available.

Outshined_One
05-19-2006, 05:06 PM
not many were sold on Verlander before the draft and for most of the time until the final week BA had him being available when the Reds picked. There was quite a discussion on whether the Reds should take Verlander if he was to be available.

Verlander was pretty much guaranteed to be a top 5 pick in that draft, which featured some pretty darn good pitching (Jered Weaver, the Rice trio, Mark Rogers, Bailey, etc). He had incredible stuff, but was inconsistent because he had trouble repeating his delivery. The Tigers knew that it was easily correctable and acted on his availability accordingly. It's really hard to pass up on a guy who throws a high 90s fastball with good movement, a plus curve, and a deceptive change.

I don't see that with Bard, though. If anything, I see it more with Morrow. Incredibly talented on the mound, but inconsistent mechanics have been problematic for him in the past (although he seems to have worked those issues out). Morrow is different from Verlander in that his fastball doesn't have comparable movement, he throws a plus splitter, and that he's had a bit of injury history (shoulder tendinitis due to mechanics).

Then again, I'm not very high on Bard...so, *shrugs*

Aronchis
05-19-2006, 05:17 PM
If the Tigers go with Stubbs, The Dodgers are high on Kiker(a Travis Wood type pitcher lol)....that leaves Kershaw and Morrow as the best bets. Morrow as the previous poster mentioned is the most "Verlander" like while Kershaw has the smoothest delivery of the prep class, a great frame, though his overall stuff probably isn't as good as Kiker's.

OnBaseMachine
05-19-2006, 06:42 PM
I would be more than pleased to land a guy like Brandon Morrow with the 8th overall pick. Morrow or Daniel Bard is fine by me. Just give me a college pitcher with great stuff and clean delivery and I'm happy. If they do draft Morrow, I hope they sign him quick and send him to the FSL and let him get a few starts in there.

OnBaseMachine
05-19-2006, 06:47 PM
Morrow had the best fastball on the Cape during the summer of 2005, frequently working in the 96-99 range, maintaing that velocity during his inning of work at the Cape All-Star Game. He complements his fastball with a wicked split-fingered fastball which may be the single best trick-pitch of anyone available for the 2006 draft. He pitched much better on the Cape than he did at Cal, and it's unsure whether his future lies as a starter or in the bullpen. His lively 1-2 punch would make him a potentially dominant closer if he can't sustain the workload of pitching every five days. He has a good pitchers frame and a live arm in which the ball explodes out of his hand. He is a diabetic, and has worked hard to manage his lifestyle and well-being since being diagnosed. He was named the Cape Cod League's #5 prospect during the summer of 2005 according to Baseball America.

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=510&draftId=4

Aronchis
05-19-2006, 07:50 PM
That is a problem, Morrow's delivery isn't always clean. He also has had some shoulder weakness in the past which has caused some concern about a fraying rotator cuff/labrum.

Verlander had the same(even better really) electric stuff and bad control because of up and down mechanics. The key was, Verlander got corrected, Morrow may not.

Superdude
05-19-2006, 10:43 PM
I'd be thrilled with Morrow. If he avoids injury, late innings reliver is a worst case scenario with his stuff.

Aronchis
05-19-2006, 10:56 PM
Another thing with Morrow, if he gets the bugs out of his mechanics, he will be a quick rise, much like Verlander.............if he doesn't, shoulder surgury.

I can't believe the Dodgers are seriously gonna take Kiker at 7, mercy, he throws across his body.

Outshined_One
05-20-2006, 12:02 AM
I can't believe the Dodgers are seriously gonna take Kiker at 7, mercy, he throws across his body.

AND he apparently has had off the field problems that a number of scouts refuse to disclose. :eek:

edabbs44
05-20-2006, 12:43 PM
From BA's draft chat yesterday...and I asked the question, even though I am from Jersey.

Q: Ohioman from Ohio asks:
Are the Reds really looking at another HS pitcher? They have to step it up to the college ranks.

A: Alan Matthews: Why? Their last two first-round picks have been high school players Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey and both players are developing nicely in the minors. That said, they figure to opt for the best player available at 8, and that might be Drew Stubbs from Texas or Brandon Morrow from Cal, if he's healthy.

dougdirt
05-20-2006, 12:51 PM
Not exactly Reds draft news, but I guess it could be.
Clayton Kershaw went 5 perfect innings yesterday, striking out all 15 batters he faced.



By DAVID HINOJOSA / The Dallas Morning News

UNIVERSITY PARK – He's back. Highland Park's hard throwing senior left-hander, Clayton Kershaw, answered any concerns about his fitness by striking out each of the 15 batters he faced in a 10-0 perfect-game victory against Justin Northwest to sweep their Class 4A regional quarterfinal series. The game was ended in five innings on the 10-run rule.

It was Kershaw's first pitching performance in three weeks after he sat out with a strained right oblique. With more than a dozen pro scouts sitting among the capacity crowd of about 1,000 at Scotland Yard Friday, Kershaw overwhelmed Northwest (20-16) by mixing his fastball with a superb change-up and curve.

"I was a little nervous at first," said Kershaw, a Texas A&M recruit who is Baseball America's top-ranked senior prospect. "Once I got it going, I felt good...It was a great night, especially because we got to advance. That was the most important thing."
Only two batters managed full counts in Kershaw's 73-pitch performance. A handful fouled off pitches. He caught five of his victims looking.

"I liked the way he worked ahead in the count," Highland Park coach Lew Kennedy said. "It made it a lot easier on him. There were a lot of question marks with him, and I think he answered them all."

The Highland Park faithful gave Kershaw (11-0) a standing ovation after he struck out the side in the fifth inning. One well-wisher told Kershaw as he asked him to autograph his scorecard: "That was unbelievable."

Catcher Sam Gadd knew early that Kershaw was due for a tremendous game. Kershaw's fastball snapped into Gadd glove.

"That is something that I'll probably never forget," Gadd said. "I thought he was nervous at first, but once he realized he could throw without pain, it was lights out. They didn't have a chance. It was the kind of night when you can hear the ball coming. It kinda hisses at you."

Kershaw capped the performance with a solo home run to right field that highlighted a five-run fourth inning for Highland Park (29-5). Joey Hainsfurther had a two-run blast in the fourth. Justin Walker hit a solo homer in the four-run fifth. Hainsfurther, who was 3-for-4 ended the game when his single to center scored Ryan O'Dwyer for the tenth run.

E-mail dhinojosa@dallasnews.com


www.dallasnews.com (http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/highschools/baseball/stories/052006dnspohsbasehp.2e7824c.html)


Not sure of the talent he was facing, but it was in the state playoffs so it wasnt an absolutely horrible team... Might put him a little higher on some boards.

cincinnati chili
05-21-2006, 12:58 PM
General manager Wayne Krivsky does not plan to scout top amateurs. The Reds picks eighth in the June draft. "That's not my thing," Krivsky said. "I'll leave that to Terry Reynolds and his people. I'm not going to try to see the top 10 players or anything."

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/features/261308.html

5/19/06

Kc61
05-22-2006, 07:41 PM
Right now, if he is available, I'd guess that the Reds will draft Stubbs, the Texas outfielder.

Centerfield is a tough position to fill. The Reds may not see Denorfia as a regular centerfielder. They probably view Deno as a fourth outfielder type.

Stubbs is apparently a great athlete, who can hit for power and has all the tools except it is unclear if he will hit for average. He has a high OBP in college.

Stubbs is not a sure thing, but the Reds' outfield surely needs to become faster and more athletic. I know pitching is usually the top priority, but if this guy is available, he's my guess. For now.

If Stubbs is unavailable, they go pitching.

corkedbat
05-22-2006, 09:02 PM
Drew Anderson (a Buckeye) is absolutely tearing up the FSL right now. And B.J. and Janish are finally raking in Dayton. If I had to rate them by position, I'd probably go with

C- PEREZ (high A)
1B- VOTTO (AA)
2B- ANDERSON (high A)
SS- JANISH (low A), ROSALES (high A)
3B- HERR? (AA)

OF- BRUCE (low A)
OF- SZYMANSKI (low A)
OF- STRAIT (high A)
OF- DICKERSON (high A)

In order:

1. Bruce
2. Votto
3. Szymanski
4. Janish
5. Rosales
6. Strait
7. Anderson
8. Dickerson
9. Herr

Does this order look about right for position prospects?

I like Bruce, Votto and Rosales, but for a best of the organization list that is frighteningly pathetic. I trust Krivsky and company to come up with solid #1 pick - hopefully a college pitcher like Chamberlain or Bard or post-college like Hochevar). What I really am interested in seeing though is how they fare in the later rounds uncovering gems (especially position players).

I'd like to see them sign Loo (something about what I've heard of him makes me think of Youloulis (sp?) with maybe more power. Two local kids (for me) that I wouldn't mind seeing in later rounds are Ryan Strieby (1B) and John Shelby (2b) from UK.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-22-2006, 09:53 PM
Sign Loo and draft Morrow and that will give us two to add to Bailey, Bruce, Wood, and Cueto and all of a sudden we'll have 6 prospects that will rival many organizations.

tbball10
05-22-2006, 10:16 PM
Is Loo that good?

edabbs44
05-22-2006, 10:23 PM
I have a feeling that there are going to be some large names dropping to the 2nd round.

flyer85
05-23-2006, 04:57 PM
Should the Reds consider Lincecum if he is available?

His numbers are incredible and his stuff is seriously nasty. The only mark against him is that he is a short RH pitcher. Maybe he is one of those special guys that can defy the odds because he stuff is so nasty. He is considered to have the best fastball and best breaking ball of all the college pitchers. In addition he is considered to be the closest to the majors of any player in the draft. His lack of height seems to be the only thing that makes him less "projectable".

lollipopcurve
05-23-2006, 05:09 PM
Should the Reds consider Lincecum if he is available?

His numbers are incredible and his stuff is seriously nasty. The only mark against him is that he is a short RH pitcher. Maybe he is one of those special guys that can defy the odds because he stuff is so nasty. He is considered to have the best fastball and best breaking ball of all the college pitchers. In addition he is considered to be the closest to the majors of any player in the draft. His lack of height seems to be the only thing that makes him less "projectable".

Absolutely they should consider him. The very nasty stuff and lack of health issues are plusses over some of the top college arms. Don't care about his height.

jmcclain19
05-23-2006, 05:10 PM
MLB.com updated their predictions

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20060516&content_id=1456105&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp

And the wheels keep spinning.

We're now just three weeks away from the draft and all 30 teams are slowly starting to whittle down their lists and hone in on the players they hope will be there when it comes to be their time to pick in the first round.

Last week, I unveiled my first projection of the top 10 picks of this year's draft. Now I'm ready with an update on that 10 as well as taking a stab at picks 11-20. Ever heard of a fool's errand?

Things are still looking fairly muddled in the top third -- starting with the Royals at No. 1 overall -- making the second third even less clear than usual at this stage of the game.

The wild card in all of this is Luke Hochevar. The former University of Tennessee standout was taken last year in the supplemental first round by the Dodgers, but has not signed. He's technically still under the Dodgers' control until a week before draft day, but scouts have swarmed to watch the right-hander pitch for the Fort Worth Cats in case he re-enters the draft, a distinct possibility. Hochever made his first start on Saturday, giving up two runs and striking out nine (against three walks) in five innings. He reportedly was throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s. His re-entrance, along with the tepid reviews for this overall draft class, has Hochevar's name being mentioned all over the first round. I'll slot him in somewhere in this projection, with the hopes of pinpointing where he'll go the more he throws and the more the picture clears up nationwide.

1. Kansas City Royals: Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington

Lincecum wasn't thrilling on Friday, losing to Stanford's Greg Reynolds (more on him later) and allowing 10 hits and four runs (three earned) while striking out just five. He also threw over 130 pitches, following up a 140-plus pitch performance the previous Friday and a one-batter relief outing mid-week. It's the kind of college abuse a scouting director has to cringe at. That being said, if you liked Lincecum before, nothing happened that made you change your mind, so he's definitely still in the mix. The Royals are down to three candidates for this spot: Lincecum, Andrew Miller and Brad Lincoln, with Lincoln throwing the best of the three of late. If the Royals don't take Lincecum, he could slide quite a bit.
Last week's projection: Lincecum

2. Colorado Rockies: Andrew Miller, LHP, University of North Carolina

Miller was OK, not great, against Virginia on Friday, getting his first loss of the season. He gave up three runs, one earned, and struck out eight in 6 1/3 IP. The Rockies are covering their bases, sending important people to the Lincecum-Reynolds matchup on Friday, as well as to see Miller and their favorite position player in the draft, Evan Longoria. Assuming the Royals stay with Lincecum, though, the Rockies will not pass up the tall left-hander.
Last week's projection: Miller

3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach State

They'd still love Miller to slip to them, and they're looking at the college pitchers being mentioned at the top -- Lincoln and Brandon Morrow -- but if Nos. 1 and 2 stay the same, they'll stick with Longoria. He's upped his average this season to .364 to go along with a .491 on-base percentage and .613 slugging after going 5-for-12 over the weekend against UC-Santa Barbara. There is some debate over who the top college position player in the draft is, between Longoria and Texas OF Drew Stubbs. But the Rays are stacked in the outfield, so if all else is equal, Longora at third is their man.
Last week's projection: Longoria

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal-Berkley

There appeared to be some debate with the Pirates over who the right pitcher to take is: Morrow or Lincoln (If Longoria were to fall to them, they could still go in that direction). Now Reynolds, who has beaten Morrow and Lincecum in back-to-back weeks, has entered into the picture, and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the Pirates went with him here. Morrow hasn't pitched since he threw well in defeat against Reynolds and will likely start on Friday against Arizona State.
Last week's projection: Morrow

5. Seattle Mariners: Brad Lincoln, RHP, University of Houston

If Lincoln keeps pitching the way he has of late, he won't be here for the Mariners at No. 5. On Friday, he beat No. 1 Rice -- on the road -- with a complete-game shutout, yielding five hits and striking out nine. He's now 11-1 with a 1.67 ERA, 26 walks and 141 strikeouts in 113 IP. Imagine what he could do if he wasn't hitting and DHing when he wasn't pitching. This is the first place where the wild card's name -- Hochevar -- has come up.
Last week's projection: Lincoln

6. Detroit Tigers: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Highland Park HS, Dallas, Texas

Finally, a prepster. Kershaw has risen to the top of a relatively weak high school class, though a recent oblique problem may make some pause. At 6-foot-4 and 210 pounds, he is the epitome of the projectable high school lefty. He hasn't pitched since the injury, but it's not the kind of thing that would stop a team from taking him, especially considering he went 10-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 104 strikeouts before going down.
Last week's projection: Kershaw

7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford

And you thought I wasn't going to make any changes to the top 10. This might be the biggest changeup to the draft, as the Dodgers are notorious for taking high schoolers. They could stick with that if the Tigers don't take Kershaw, but this could be a year in which they go college in the first round. In this scenario, Reynolds would be the best one on the board, but the Dodgers would love it if Lincoln somehow came down to them. Another possibility: If the higher-ups all go arms, the Dodgers would not let Longoria go by.
Last week's projection: Jeremy Jeffress

8. Cincinnati Reds: Drew Stubbs, OF, University of Texas

As mentioned last week, Stubbs was considered the top position player in the class heading into the season. According to some, he's been passed by Longoria. But Stubbs certainly isn't without skills. Most feel he can play center field defensively in the big leagues right now and he has hit .337 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs and, a 1.031 OPS and 21 steals. He's also struck out 52 times in 53 games, the main knock on his game. Once upon a time, the Reds thought Lincoln could be here, but that doesn't seem realistic now. If Stubbs goes earlier and they still go position player, the guy they might go with is the one I've got listed going next.
Last week's projection: Stubbs.

9. Baltimore Orioles: Bill Rowell, 3B, Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, N.J.

The shortstop at his New Jersey high school, most see the 6-foot-5, 195-pounder sliding over to third as a pro. He could make a nice complement in the O's system with last year's first-rounder Brandon Snyder, unless of course the Reds nab him first.
Last week's projection: Rowell.

10. San Francisco Giants: Daniel Bard, RHP, University of North Carolina

It remains to be seen how Bard's latest bump in the road will hurt his draft status. The right-hander didn't make it out of the fourth inning in his Sunday start against Virginia, giving up five hits and three walks in 3 2/3 IP. But there's still no denying that when he's on, he's got a tantalizing combination of stuff and smooth delivery. If Reynolds somehow slides, the Giants would be a likely suitor, but that now seems unlikely. They could go the position player route, and Wake Forest's Matt Antonelli is still on the radar.
Last week's projection: Bard.

11. Arizona Diamondbacks: Luke Hochevar, RHP, no school

I know it might seem crazy to think the Diamondbacks would go down this road after waiting almost the full year to sign their 2004 first-round pick, Stephen Drew, who is also represented by Scott Boras. But that's worked out well and they're not afraid to take a chance. This might be the right draft for it, with Hochevar being the best advanced arm on the board if he's back in.

2006 MLB Draft
Complete coverage >

12. Texas Rangers: Kyle Drabek, RHP, The Woodlands HS, Texas

The Rangers would love to add a position player to the fold here and if Stubbs somehow fell to them, they would be ecstatic. That, however, is unlikely to happen. They have designs on using Texas for a draft stomping ground much like the Braves do in Georgia. There's been some noise they like Kyle McCulloch, the right-handed pitching teammate of Stubbs at Texas. But perhaps they'll stay at home and take a shot with Drabek, Doug's kid. He may have the best arm and ceiling of any high schooler in the draft, but there has been some talk of makeup issues that could cloud his future.

13. Chicago Cubs: Travis Snider, OF, Jackson HS, Mill Creek, Wash.

This might seem like a bit of a stretch, but if teams are willing to take a shot in this first round, why don't I? The Cubs do like Snider's power potential and despite his "bad body" -- 6-foot, 230 pounds -- think he could be a prototypical right fielder, but it's just a question whether they like him at No. 13. Keep in mind the Cubs don't pick again for several rounds, so they want to make this count. Assuming they want to go high school, names like third baseman Chris Marrero, catcher Hank Conger or 1B/OF Chris Parmalee could sneak into the conversation. One sleeper: Kyler Burke from Tennessee.

14. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Antonelli, 3B, Wake Forest

As confusing as it gets at this point in the first round, one thing several people have told me is that the Jays like Antonelli. And there's a lot to like. He's hit .335 this year with some power (.605 SLG) and patience (.446 OBP) to go along with pretty good speed (15 steals). Of course, it wouldn't be shocking if Toronto decided to their usual thing and go the college pitching route.

15. Washington Nationals: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Halifax County HS, Va.

The Nationals have stayed in the area the last two drafts with Bill Bray and Ryan Zimmerman, so going with the high schooler from Virginia would make a lot of sense. Jeffress has as much arm strength as anyone in the draft and has been clocked in triple-digits this season. If the Nats want to stray from their own region, they're interested in Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain, if he proves he's healthy. They also could be looking at San Diego starter Josh Butler. A sleeper to watch: Sean Black, from Lenape High School in New Jersey.

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Brooks Brown, RHP, University of Georgia

Brown is on the rise, largely because he's in stark contrast to some of the "undersized" righties higher on the list. Brown is 6-foot-3 and weighs 205 pounds and also throws in the mid-90s with regularity. He's Georgia's Saturday starter, but he leads the team in innings (81 2/3) and strikeouts (94) while holding hitters to a .234 average.

17. San Diego Padres: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska

Chamberlain put himself on the map last year in leading Nebraska's charge to the College World Series. He'll have to prove some nagging injuries aren't an issue and that he can keep down his weight (listed at 225), but the Padres love the college arms and Chamberlain is the type who, when 100 percent, can move quickly. So could Missouri's Max Scherzer, who could've been a top five pick if biceps tendinitis hadn't kept him out of several starts.

18. Philadelphia Phillies: Chris Tillman, RHP, Fountain Valley HS, Calif.

Tillman didn't pitch all that well in a marquee matchup against catcher Hank Conger recently, and his slide could easily continue past the Phillies. But he does have a little more polish than some of the other high school arms, a commodity the Phillies have interest in. A distinct possibility is Sean Black (mentioned above), the Lenape High School ace who has come seemingly out of nowhere and into the first-round picture. He's been cranking it up to 94 mph of late and there aren't that many live arms like that out there.

19. Florida Marlins: Chris Marrero, 3B, Monsignor Pace HS, Opa Locka, Fla.

The Marlins certainly haven't shied away from taking high school arms (Volstad, Thompson last year, for instance) and pitchers like Jeffress or Black could intrigue them with their arm strength. So could Tillman if he slips this far. Suffice it to say the Marlins haven't crossed too many names off their list at this point, and they've been able to see Marrero in their home state plenty of times. Once considered to be the top high school position player in this class, Marrero's performance has disappointed some, but not enough to slide out of the first round.

20. Minnesota Twins: Hank Conger, C, Huntington Beach HS, Calif.

Rounding out the top 20, the Twins seem to be headed in the high school direction. They've obviously shown a willingness to do either depending on what a particular draft looks like, and they may think a young bat is the way to go. Conger has been moving up of late because of his bat, not just because he's a catcher. Obviously, the Twins are set with Joe Mauer for quite a while, so they could afford to let a teen-aged backstop like Conger develop slowly before having to decide if they need to move him.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 05:12 PM
Kill me if the pick is Stubbs.

Aronchis
05-23-2006, 05:17 PM
Lincecum can pitch for the Reds right now as closer......literally. His stuff is the legit deal, complete killer. Makes Wagner's "stuff" look like 50th round material.

He may fall because of just not his height, but because he projects as a elite closer, may lead for some teams to pass.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 05:47 PM
Absolutely they should consider him. The very nasty stuff and lack of health issues are plusses over some of the top college arms. Don't care about his height.
They should, but from what I have read, they are showing no interest in him if he falls to them. I dont remember where I read it....I wish I could.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 06:01 PM
They should, but from what I have read, they are showing no interest in him if he falls to them. I dont remember where I read it....I wish I could.
The pick should be pitching...pitching and more pitching.

Aronchis
05-23-2006, 06:08 PM
The pick should be pitching...pitching and more pitching.

Why? The Reds argueably have more pitching in the lower minors than hitting, I mean after Votto and Bruce, it REALLY thins out. When you have a system as thin as the Reds, going BPA is the best solution.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 06:26 PM
The pick should be pitching...pitching and more pitching.
Which is fine, but just because they arent interested in Lincecum doesnt mean they arent interested in pitching. They just might not want something with him for whatever reason it is.

Like Aronchis said, the position player depth of talent is well, not much at all.
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
then you have a bunch of guys who are hitting ok but are at levels they are a little old for.
I wouldnt mind getting a guy who isnt a pitcher, but that guy is probably going to be Stubbs who I am not sure of.

Kc61
05-23-2006, 06:29 PM
Why? The Reds argueably have more pitching in the lower minors than hitting, I mean after Votto and Bruce, it REALLY thins out. When you have a system as thin as the Reds, going BPA is the best solution.

I agree. The Reds need athletic players. Having athletes has really bolstered the infield. They need them in the outfield too. Catching in the system is thin. The only first base prospect is Votto, and some people don't think that highly of him.

A lot depends on how the draft goes. I do not want to see them reaching for a pitcher who is not top 10 quality. I would rather see a position player, particularly an athlete like Stubbs (if he is worthy, which seems open to some question).

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 06:31 PM
Which is fine, but just because they arent interested in Lincecum doesnt mean they arent interested in pitching. They just might not want something with him for whatever reason it is.

Like Aronchis said, the position player depth of talent is well, not much at all.
Jay Bruce
Joey Votto
then you have a bunch of guys who are hitting ok but are at levels they are a little old for.
I wouldnt mind getting a guy who isnt a pitcher, but that guy is probably going to be Stubbs who I am not sure of.
I agree with you...I was talking about pitching b/c of the Stubbs prediction. I want college pitchers b/c our lineup is made up mostly of younger players right now and Kriv can keep at least most of them, we'll need some pitchers who will be ready quick. But if there was a bat there worthy of the pick, I wouldn't shy away from it. 2nd round could bring someone like Wes Hodges, who I would have no problem taking a shot on.

icehole3
05-23-2006, 06:37 PM
I agree with edabbs44. We can get position guys from our South American facility. I want dominate pitching at every level. When we bring up a pitcher from the minors he should be a ready and able starter thats at least a 1, 2, or number 3 type starter. Then I would worry about position players.

mound_patrol
05-23-2006, 06:46 PM
The Reds need to draft pitching. It's a lot easier to replace major league hitters then major league arms. Lets stock the system with arms and hope a few pan out for us.

OnBaseMachine
05-23-2006, 07:37 PM
College pitcher in the first round(Bard, Morrow, Linecum) and then maybe a high school bat in the second round.

I wish they would change it to where you can trade draft picks. Hopefully they approve that before long.

Outshined_One
05-23-2006, 07:39 PM
BA has their Top 100 Prospects (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/features/261380.html) list up for those of you who subscribe. Along with that, scouting reports (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/features/261389.html) for each of those guys.

jmcclain19
05-23-2006, 08:22 PM
Please do not post premium content from Baseball America. We have been contacted by their attorneys regarding this matter. Thank you. -GIK (5.31.06)

Javy Pornstache
05-23-2006, 08:33 PM
I've wondered what happened to the slipping stock of Dallas Buck, the decreased velocity explains a lot. Still wouldn't be too depressed at all if one of the falling arms of Buck or Ian Kennedy could still be had with a second round pick for the Reds after a great first round choice.

Betterread
05-23-2006, 11:55 PM
College pitcher in the first round(Bard, Morrow, Linecum) and then maybe a high school bat in the second round.

I wish they would change it to where you can trade draft picks. Hopefully they approve that before long.

I like Linecum and Morrow first, then Stubbs and Georgia Tech 3B Wes Hodges, whose stock has dropped but is a bigtime ballplayer who is just having an off year, and then Bard (who has disappointed me this year, sort of like Mark McCormick (Baylor) last year).
That means the Reds probably end up with Stubbs - maybe in the second round they can get a live arm.

Outshined_One
05-24-2006, 02:15 AM
Toolsy OFs with K/BB issues worry me...especially when there are questions about how well they'll handle the transition to wood bats.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 01:25 PM
Does anyone have any feelings about globalizing the draft? I can't figure out why baseball wouldn't do this...if it isn't going to happen, Cincy has to get more involved in international signings. It is a quick fix for the almost barren farm system and gives great trading chips to active teams in the mkt. Look at the Yankees, how many joke prospects have they dealt to other teams that they signed? I know they gave us two of the worst, Aramboles and Melian. Here's one story out today...

This year's most significant amateur signing may not come from what many consider a weak draft.

Among the biggest prizes is a 16-year-old Dominican prospect with an attractive baseball pedigree.

The Marlins are among the teams in the mix for Francisco Pena, the son of former Royals manager and Yankees coach Tony Pena. Like his former all-star father, Francisco is a catcher who already has drawn the attention of deep-pocketed teams like the Yankees and Mets.

According to a source that has spoken with the Marlins, how long they stay in the running will depend on whether the bidding gets out of hand. The younger Pena is expected to command a seven-figure signing bonus.

One Marlins player believes it's a reasonable price. Catcher Miguel Olivo is from the same province as the Pena family and knows Francisco well. When Olivo was in the American League and Pena managed the Royals, Olivo would run into Francisco in Kansas City.

"I think he's worth more than [$1 million]," Olivo said. "If he was eligible for the draft here, for me he would be a first-rounder. Good arm. He throws almost as good as me, and he has good size. I knew from seeing him he would be a professional. His father would work him out. Tony Pena has baseball in his blood, and his kids are the same."

Pena already has one son in pro ball. Tony Pena Jr. is a shortstop in the Braves system and made his major league debut earlier this season.

If money doesn't eliminate the Marlins from contention, family ties might. The Braves may be a sleeper to land the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Pena, who some believe wants to play with his older brother.

The Marlins, who are thin at the upper levels of the organization at catcher, do have one factor going for them. Albert Gonzalez, their new director of international operations, spent the previous 13 seasons in the Royals organization and has relationships with Pena and his son.

The signing period for international players begins July 2.

"If it turns into a bidding war, the smart thing to do is get out," said one baseball official who is following the situation. "He's a good kid and has got some ability. When the Yankees and Mets get in it ... you know how it is."

jmcclain19
05-24-2006, 04:58 PM
Does anyone have any feelings about globalizing the draft? I can't figure out why baseball wouldn't do this...if it isn't going to happen, Cincy has to get more involved in international signings. It is a quick fix for the almost barren farm system and gives great trading chips to active teams in the mkt. Look at the Yankees, how many joke prospects have they dealt to other teams that they signed? I know they gave us two of the worst, Aramboles and Melian. Here's one story out today...

During the last Labor talks this was one of the big issues. MLB and the players union studied it, realized the complications and burdens of it would be so widespread and cumbersome that they both dropped it, never to be brought up again. You won't see it happen in our lifetime.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 04:59 PM
During the last Labor talks this was one of the big issues. MLB and the players union studied it, realized the complications and burdens of it would be so widespread and cumbersome that they both dropped it, never to be brought up again. You won't see it happen in our lifetime.
I never understood why it would be such a big deal...the NBA has no problems.

jmcclain19
05-24-2006, 05:09 PM
MLB.com has readjusted their draft picks today

Apparently, the Reds have invited Rowell in for a Private workout

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20060523&content_id=1467640&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp


OK, take a deep breath. You're about to embark on a wild ride.

The following is my first stab at a complete projection of the first round's 30 picks. There are many, many updates to the Top 20 that appeared here a week ago, with guesses ... ummm, prognostications for picks Nos. 21-30 after that.

There is still a great deal still up in the air, starting with the first pick in the draft. The lack of clarity filters all the way down, with teams in the lower third of the draft often giving me a "We really don't have any idea who will get down to us" response when I ask. I've been told that if I can project the back end of the first round correctly this year, I'll be taken on the first plane to Vegas or asked repeatedly for lottery number suggestions.

Let's just say I'm not booking my flight just yet. Remember, what follows is a work in progress that I will continue to update leading up to the June 6 draft. So happy reading.

1. Kansas City Royals: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina

You can call me reactionary, or just wanting the challenge of re-casting the draft by making a change at the top. Truth be told, the Royals haven't made up their mind and are still considering Washington right-hander Tim Lincecum and Houston's Brad Lincoln along with Miller. Around baseball, most feel Miller is the obvious choice for who should go here talent-wise, and it was a question of whether the Royals wanted to pay the bonus out for him at No. 1 overall. In the end, just like with Alex Gordon last year, I think they'll sign the check and bring Miller into the fold.
Last week's projection: Lincecum

2. Colorado Rockies: Evan Longoria, 3B, Long Beach State

The Rockies have been following Longoria hard all year, and while they might rather have Miller, if he goes to the Royals, they'll likely pass on the other pitchers being mentioned near the top. Lincoln's name has been mentioned in this spot some, but we'll stick with Longoria for now. With the third basemen already in the Rockies system, Longoria likely would have to move over to second where he could eventually form a double-play combination with college teammate Troy Tulowitzki.
Last week's projection: Miller

3. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Brad Lincoln, RHP, University of Houston

It's now pretty clear that Miller won't get to them here, so they'll focus attention on the other top pitchers in the draft (Longoria would be a consideration if the Rockies decide on Lincoln). That means a choice among Lincoln, Cal's Brandon Morrow and Lincecum. Right now, I think Lincecum and Morrow start the ol' first-round slide when the Rays go with Lincoln.
Last week's projection: Longoria

4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Brandon Morrow, RHP, Cal Berkeley

For a while, it looked like Stanford's Greg Reynolds was moving his way up to the top of the Pirates' board. His clunker on Friday didn't help him, and while he may still be in the mix, he's no longer the front-runner. That would leave Morrow and Lincecum as the top choices. It could come down to who shows what down the stretch here, but in terms of potential as a starter, Morrow has the edge.
Last week's projection: Morrow

5. Seattle Mariners: Luke Hochevar, RHP, No school

Last week, I had him at No. 11. Assuming he goes back into the draft -- and there are those who actually think the Dodgers will end up signing their 2005 draftee -- he'll go much higher than that. He could be a good fit as high as No. 2. The Mariners will be looking for the top college arm here; if Morrow or Lincoln dropped, they'd be all over that. Lincecum, as a local pick, would be a good PR move, but doesn't seem likely at this point.
Last week's projection: Lincoln

6. Detroit Tigers: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Highland Park HS, Dallas, Texas

Just when it seemed like the Tigers might turn attention elsewhere because they hadn't been able to see Kershaw pitch in weeks, the top prep arm in the draft returned to action after dealing with an oblique issue and was about as good as a pitcher can be. How does this line work for you: 5 IP, 15 batters faced, 15 Ks. Detroit does have interest in University of Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs, so if a decision-maker decides they want a toolsy outfielder, they could go that route. But they've been on Kershaw for a long time, and it's hard to see them jumping off now.
Last week's projection: Kershaw

7. Los Angeles Dodgers: Tim Lincecum, RHP, University of Washington

At last, he comes home to rest. The Dodgers have the reputation of being fond of high schoolers and would be thrilled if Kershaw dropped to them. The next high school arm talent-wise is Kyle Drabek -- some would say he should be at the top, based on talent -- but there are some makeup issues there. The Dodgers could throw people some for a loop and go college arm. Lincecum has electric stuff and could get to LA in a hurry as a reliever.
Last week's projection: Greg Reynolds

8. Cincinnati Reds: Bill Rowell, 3B, Bishop Eustace Prep, Pennsauken, N.J.

For a while, it loooked like the Reds were all over Stubbs, but I now have reason to believe that won't happen. Some say that Rowell, a high school shortstop who profiles as a power-hitting third baseman, might be sliding because of a poor playoff performance, but word on the street is that the Reds were bringing Rowell in for a private workout. If he puts on a show, the Reds will be tempted to take him here.
Last week's projection: Stubbs.

9. Baltimore Orioles: Drew Stubbs, OF, University of Texas

There are still debates about Stubbs' bat, even though he went 6-for-11 over the weekend with a bunch of walks and has been red-hot in the second half of the season. There is no question about his glove, which is Gold Glove-caliber right now, and he's got plus speed as well. If Baltimore thinks he'll make enough contact, he could look very good in Camden Yards.
Last week's projection: Rowell.

10. San Francisco Giants: Daniel Bard, RHP, University of North Carolina

The roller-coaster that is Bard's junior season continued last weekend with a pretty strong start. Whoever takes him will have to believe they can take his projectable body and plus stuff and make him consistently like the pitcher who was dominant in the Cape last summer. The Giants could be that team. If they decide they're not, this is a team that has been hot on Drabek's trail.
Last week's projection: Bard.

11. Arizona Diamondbacks: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford

Reynolds' rough outing last week could work to the Diamondbacks' advantage. Prior to that start, he beat Morrow and Lincecum in back-to-back starts and was heading up the charts. Arizona is almost certainly looking at a college pitcher and top flight arms with injury questions, like Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain and Missouri's Max Scherzer, could sneak in here if they answer all health-related questions down the stretch.
Last week's projection: Hochevar.

12. Texas Rangers: Kyle Drabek, RHP, The Woodlands HS, Texas

The names still most closely attached to the Rangers live in Texas, with a new wrinkle or two. If Stubbs drops here, he won't go any further. There's also been some noise about Longhorns ace Kyle McCulloch going here, with the local ties playing a huge part in the decision. They've also supposedly brought Alabama high school lefty Kasey Kiker in for a private workout, but if they're going to go high school, they'll stay in the Lone Star State with Drabek, Doug's kid. His arm and ceiling are unquestioned.
Last week's projection: Drabek.

13. Chicago Cubs: Chris Marrero, 3B, Monsignor Pace HS, Opa Locka, Fla.

The Cubs are looking for a high school bat here, and while they like Travis Snider, my projection last week, it now seems unlikely that they'll take him here. Marrero was once considered to be the top position player from the high school ranks but hasn't separated himself as hoped this season. Still, he's got power and knowledge of the strike zone and the ability to stay at third. It could be enough for the Cubs to bite, with catcher Hank Conger still on the radar.
Last week's projection: Snider.

14. Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Antonelli, 3B, Wake Forest

Nothing has changed with the Blue Jays, it seems. They still like Antonelli, the athletic third baseman from Wake Forest. He hits for average, some power, terrific plate discipline and some speed. He could play a number of positions as a pro, even in the outfield.
Last week's projection: Antonelli

15. Washington Nationals: Josh Butler, RHP, University of San Diego

The Nats like local high school product Jeremy Jeffress, but they're hoping he's still around with their second pick at No. 22. If Rowell slid here, it's pretty clear Washington would take him and they have some interest -- and some questions -- about Kent State speedy middle infielder Emmanuel Burriss. In the end, though, I think they go the advanced pitcher route, and perhaps with one they can make a pre-draft deal with. Butler, who started off the season as hot as anyone in the nation, has been a little inconsistent since, but has a projectable body and a plus fastball with a changeup and slider.
Last week's projection: Jeffress.

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Joba Chamberlain, RHP, Nebraska

The Brewers may have an interesting choice to make. A college pitcher might make the most sense, and there could be some intriguing arms available, including Chamberlain, Scherzer and last week's projection, Brooks Brown from Georgia. Brown, it seems, has become secondary and the Brewers will probably be all over the Big 12 tournament next week to see both formerly injured starters mentioned above. They're not afraid to go the high school route, either, and they do like Kasey Kiker's arm.
Last week's projection: Brown

17. San Diego Padres: Andrew Carpenter, Long Beach State

Chamberlain might be a good fit if he were to slide here; Scherzer probably would not. Most people think of Jared Hughes when they think of Long Beach pitchers. But Carpenter's name has cropped up in first-round conversations of late. A transfer, Carpenter is 6-foot-3, 225 pounds, and he has three usable pitches. The Padres love college pitchers and they've been able to see plenty of Carpenter (7-3, 2.93 ERA), the Dirtbags' Saturday starter, in Southern California.
Last week's projection: Chamberlain.

18. Philadelphia Phillies: Kasey Kiker, Russell County HS, Phenix City, Ala.

It's looking like the Phillies will either go high-ceiling athlete or high-ceiling arm with this pick. I don't see the athlete who should go here, though they could reach for some of athletic high school bats out there. So I'll stick with the high school arm. It does seem that Chris Tillman will slide on by. Kiker, a lefty with a mid-90s fastball, could be a very good fit. Yes, there have been some makeup concerns here, but the Phillies could get those questions answered by draft time. There was some word of them trying to bring Kiker in for a private workout.
Last week's projection: Tillman

19. Florida Marlins: Hank Conger, C, Huntington Beach HS, Calif.

We know the Marlins like high school players (though they've taken some college guys high in the past), and with so many teams keying in on college arms, there might be some players of interest for them here. Last week's projection, Marrero, could be gone by this pick. Conger is the next best bat. A switch-hitter with power from both sides, there's some debate whether he can stick behind the plate. But the Marlins have the kind of system that would be willing to wait that out. If they want to go with the strong prep arm, Jeffress could be a possibility here.
Last week's projection: Marrero

20. Minnesota Twins: Brett Anderson, LHP, Stillwater HS, Stillwater, Okla.

Think Glen Perkins, but in high school. Anderson is the most polished pitcher in the high school draft, and scouts say it's like scouting a college player. Part of that is because his father, Frank, is the head coach at Oklahoma State. He's got a four-pitch aresenal and can throw all of them for strikes. The Twins don't shy away from high schoolers and they don't rule out college guys. Anderson seems to be the perfect fit for them as a result. There are some high school bats available, with Snider or Kyler Burke possibly figuring into the mix.
Last week's projection: Conger

2006 MLB Draft
Complete coverage >

21. New York Yankees: Max Scherzer, RHP, Missouri

When all is said and done, Scherzer probably pitches his way into the upper part of this round. But for now, I'll slot him here for two reasons: 1. Injury: He's just coming back from a biceps issue that kept him off the mound for a while. His last start -- against Texas -- started to answer the health question, but scouts may want to see more before using a top half pick on him; 2. Advisor: Whatever your thoughts on Scott Boras, he usually has an impact. If Scherzer continues to pitch well down the stretch, it won't matter as much as some team will take him based on his obvious talent. But injury concerns plus advisor concerns equals a slide in this projection.

22. Washington Nationals: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Halifax County HS, South Boston, Va.

If the first round plays out like this, I think the Nats would be ecstatic. I had Jeffress going to them at No. 15, but since have found out they might not be ready to pull the trigger for him there. But at No. 22? It's a no-brainer. Jeffress has hit triple-digits on the gun, is extremely athletic and has drawn comparisons to Dwight Gooden. Of course, his secondary pitches are extremely inconsistent and he's very raw as a pitcher, leading some to compare him to Colt Griffin. But it's hard to pass up an arm like that here, especially one in the Nats' new backyard.

23. Houston Astros: Kyle McCulloch, RHP, University of Texas

It's likely that the Astros will go with the best college arm on the board, and there could be a lenghty debate over who that might be. A Scherzer or Chamberlain sure would be intriguing, but if they slide this far, you start to wonder why. Houston likes Missouri State's Brett Sinkbeil, but an oblique injury kept him out of action for a month and he just got back on the mounnd for 40 or so pitches last weekend. If he can come back and resemble the pitcher he was prior to this year, he may not be here for the Astros to consider. With all those questions, I felt the Astros would go with a home-state product in McCulloch, who despite his earlier struggles, is a fairly proven commodity.

24. Atlanta Braves: Chris Tillman, RHP, Fountain Valley HS

If you don't know the Braves like high school arms (and position players, for that matter), you don't pay attention to the draft each year. Tillman's name was one that was at one time mentioned up closer to the top of this list, but some lackluster performances late have hurt his stock. But he's big at 6-foot-5 and very projectable with a good fastball and a big curve. The Braves love taking guys like this and moving them along in their farm system, turning them into big leaguers.

25. Los Angeles Angels: Travis Snider, OF/1B, Jackson HS, Everett, Wash.

The Angels like taking high schoolers (and the occasional risk-pick college guy). Suffice to say, they seldom do what's expected. They could go high school arm here with choices from Florida like Colton Willems or Matt Latos. But for now, I'll say they'll try to add to their coffer of good, young hitting talent and go with whichever high ceiling bat is left. In this exercise, it's Snider, who's not a toolsy athlete, but can flat out swing the stick.

26. Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Latos, RHP, Cocunut Creek HS, Margate, Fla.

The two LA teams might battle it out for which prepster goes in these two picks. If the Dodgers go the surprsing college route at No. 7, there's no way they pass on a high schooler here. If they want to go offense, Chris Parmalee could be the guy. If they want to go pitcher, they can choose between Latos or Willems in Florida if they desire.

27. Boston Red Sox: Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri State

The Sox proved last year they are not beholden to any one philosophy, taking three college players and two high schoolers with their five first-round picks. They've got back-to-back ones here, so we'll split it accordingly here. Let's start with the college arm. Sinkbeil's got one of the better ones and could very well pitch his way up if he can show he's healthy in his last couple of starts. If not, the Sox are kind of team who might be willing to take a risk and think the Sinkbeil of 2005 is the guy they're actually getting.

28. Boston Red Sox: Chris Parmalee, OF/1B, Chino Hills HS, Chiino Hills, Calif

And now the high school bat (I figured, why not do the opposite of last year, when -- with the notable exception of Craig Hansen -- they took two college bats and two high school arms). Parmelee could be a good fit because of a sound hitting approach -- and good left-handed power potential -- and a lot of poise. He profiles as a corner outfielder with a strong arm or a good defensive first baseman. If the Sox, by the way, wanted to repeat last year and take a college closer, the top guy right now appears to be Miami's Chris Perez.

29. Chicago White Sox: David Huff, LHP, UCLA

At this stage of the draft, the White Sox could go anywhere, and chances are, whoever is atop their board when it's their turn -- be it high school or college -- is who they'll pursue. But if the strength of this draft is college arms (it is), some will undoubtedly slip to this spot. Thus the Huff pick. UCLA is his third amateur stop in the college ranks and he was drafted last year in the 19th round by the Phillies. He throws a fastball, curve, changeup and slider, and he throws them all for strikes. Can you say "pitchability?"

30. St. Louis Cardinals: Brooks Brown, RHP, University of Georgia

I first mentioned Brown as a possibility up at No. 16. He's done nothing to warrant such a slide; such is the nature of projections, I guess. He's a big, strong right-hander with a plus fastball. Some see him as a reliever in the future, a role he held in the past. Others think he's shown enough as a Saturday starter to have a future there.

jmcclain19
05-24-2006, 05:11 PM
Please do not post premium content from Baseball America. We have been contacted by their attorneys regarding this matter. Thank you. -GIK (5.31.06)

Aronchis
05-24-2006, 05:12 PM
Private workouts? Not a indicator of a pick. No way the Reds take Rowell.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 05:16 PM
The sad thing is that MLB thinks the compensation picks favor the little guys. I haven't seen that at all.

flyer85
05-24-2006, 05:17 PM
Private workouts? Not a indicator of a pick. No way the Reds take Rowell.I think I will be ill if the Reds take Rowell or Stubbs.

Kc61
05-24-2006, 05:18 PM
If some of the college arms drop, as BA says, wonder if the Reds would take Drabek. Whatever his flaws, seems to have a great arm.

flyer85
05-24-2006, 05:20 PM
If some of the college arms drop, as BA says, wonder if the Reds would take Drabek. Whatever his flaws, seems to have a great arm.Reds seem to have plenty of arms in the low minors. I wouldn't mind see another one that would allow 3-4 guys hitting the majors around the same time (like the A's did with Zito/Hudson/Mulder).

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 06:05 PM
I think I will be ill if the Reds take Rowell or Stubbs.
I'll be in the hospital room next to yours.

One of the many things that kill me each year is how some of the bigger names fall b/c of contract concerns and the Reds fail to take advantage. Like last year, Pelfrey fell to the Mets at 9. If the Reds had the 8th pick, would they have drafted him? I couldn't see that happening. Hochevar fell all the way to the comp picks. Hansen went to the BoSox in the 20s. The Reds could have had either and took Bruce, who I felt was less of a need pick than the college pitchers. Could you imagine if, for whatever reason, Miller was still available and Cincy took someone else? Then I might actually end up in the hospital.

Outshined_One
05-24-2006, 08:26 PM
Turns out GT 3B Wes Hodges has a stress fracture in his lower leg, which would go a long way in explaining why he's been regressing so badly this year.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 08:41 PM
Private workouts? Not a indicator of a pick. No way the Reds take Rowell.
It did when the Reds took Gruler over Kazmir.

Rowell is listed as a SS/3b. Not promising.

IslandRed
05-24-2006, 09:53 PM
Here's a thought I had. Seems like everyone wants the Reds to take one of the college arms and are puzzled at the talk of taking a position player. But we don't get to draft a generic College Arm, we have to draft a specific player. What if the Reds' new scouting people -- giving them the benefit of the doubt that they're good at their jobs -- don't agree with the consensus rankings? Maybe they're not impressed with the college arms they expect to be there at eight? Should they overdraft (in their opinion) a college arm they're not that impressed with, just because, or should they go with the proverbial best player available (in their opinion) even if it doesn't come out of the category making the most sense?

Seems likely they'd do the latter, but I'm just thinking that if they don't take a college arm, they'll probably take shots for "not understanding the draft" or "not understanding what the Reds need" when it may be a simple disagreement over player evaluation.

Aronchis
05-24-2006, 09:56 PM
Here's a thought I had. Seems like everyone wants the Reds to take one of the college arms and are puzzled at the talk of taking a position player. But we don't get to draft a generic College Arm, we have to draft a specific player. What if the Reds' new scouting people -- giving them the benefit of the doubt that they're good at their jobs -- don't agree with the consensus rankings? Maybe they're not impressed with the college arms they expect to be there at eight? Should they overdraft (in their opinion) a college arm they're not that impressed with, just because, or should they go with the proverbial best player available even if it doesn't come out of the category making the most sense?

The Reds don't have new scouting people yet, Krivsky brought in Buckley to oversee the refit, but that is it at this point. Due to the timing of his hiring, Buckley is still dealing with DanO era scouts in that regard.

Krivsky doesn't even bother with this part of the operation.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 10:05 PM
Here's a thought I had. Seems like everyone wants the Reds to take one of the college arms and are puzzled at the talk of taking a position player. But we don't get to draft a generic College Arm, we have to draft a specific player. What if the Reds' new scouting people -- giving them the benefit of the doubt that they're good at their jobs -- don't agree with the consensus rankings? Maybe they're not impressed with the college arms they expect to be there at eight? Should they overdraft (in their opinion) a college arm they're not that impressed with, just because, or should they go with the proverbial best player available even if it doesn't come out of the category making the most sense?
My thoughts on that are this:
The Reds right now have young positional players at 2b, SS, 3b, LF, RF. Bruce in the minors. Pitching is sketchy, at best. Now with all these younger guys already in the majors, the staff needs pitchers who can get to the show quickly when these guys are all still in their prime.
You bring up a good point though. If a positional player is out there who the scouts think is a can't miss all-star and the college pitchers don't do much for them, it is a different story. I would have no problem with them going with the positional player. Then one of the other guys can get dealt for pitching when the time comes.
The only caveat I have there, though, is for the FO to tell the fans that after the draft. I would be so angry seeing them grab a HS third baseman w/o hearing that side of the story. A college SP is such a slam dunk this year I would be shocked to see anything else.

Outshined_One
05-24-2006, 11:31 PM
It did when the Reds took Gruler over Kazmir.

Rowell is listed as a SS/3b. Not promising.

He projects as a 3B because he's a big body. However, thanks to the success of guys like Crosby and Tulowitzki, a team might think enough of him to stick him and keep him at SS.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 11:32 PM
He projects as a 3B because he's a big body. However, thanks to the success of guys like Crosby and Tulowitzki, a team might think enough of him to stick him and keep him at SS.
The only reason why I said "not promising" is b/c we have EdE and Lpez there already and both are YOUNG. Unless they are expected to be goners in 4 years, then let's try to get some pitching to help the club soon.

dougdirt
05-25-2006, 12:39 AM
Who says College pitching is a slam dunk this year? There may be a lot of pitchers available because the position players suck this year, but that doesnt mean that the pitchers are all that much better. How many of these guys projected in the top 5 would even go in the top 10 in a normal draft? 2? This draft class is weak, and when I say weak I mean very weak. You need to take the best player available to you when you draft. Regardless of if its a HS pitcher, HS position player, College pitcher or college position player. In a weak draft like this you grab the best guy you can and pray you can get another guy in the draft that can help you out one day.
I have read where one scout said if you dont have a top 15 pick you are in trouble because there isnt much talent and you are going to be severely overpaying for someone who isnt that good.
The Reds do have a top 10 pick, so their best bet is to take the best player available. If it isnt a pitcher, I am sure some of you will throw fits... come back and look at the draft in 5-6 years, heck even 7 or 8 before making to big of a judgement on it.

edabbs44
05-25-2006, 09:08 AM
I am saying slam dunk b/c of how the Reds are currently structured. Young position players in the majors with a serious lack of young pitching throughout the system. I don't want them to take a college pitcher for the sake of taking one, but it seems like there are enough solid college pitchers where they won't have to reach.

M2
05-25-2006, 12:42 PM
Morrow or Bard. I'd be fine with either one.

OnBaseMachine
05-25-2006, 12:48 PM
I agree with M2.

Although I wouldn't go on suicide watch if the Reds did take Bill Rowell. The more I read on him the more I like him, but I still prefer a college pitcher like a Morrow, Bard, or Lincoln. Rowell supposedly has the second best power and strikezone judgement of high school hitters in the draft. His body frame and left handed hit/RH throwing will remind you of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He wouldn't be a terrible pick, but with the pitching available I would probably go that route.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2006, 01:38 PM
Going back to the dawn of GABP, it seems the Reds have put a premium on finding LH power via the draft (Votto, Szymanski, Bruce). I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue the search with Rowell. I like the fact he's been athletic enough to be at SS.

M2
05-25-2006, 01:51 PM
I agree with M2.

Although I wouldn't go on suicide watch if the Reds did take Bill Rowell. The more I read on him the more I like him, but I still prefer a college pitcher like a Morrow, Bard, or Lincoln. Rowell supposedly has the second best power and strikezone judgement of high school hitters in the draft. His body frame and left handed hit/RH throwing will remind you of a poor man's Adam Dunn. He wouldn't be a terrible pick, but with the pitching available I would probably go that route.

As long as it's not Kershaw, Drabek, Jeffress or some other HS arm, I'm cool with it. BA ranks 16 college arms in the top 30 prospects. Surely, if the Reds are going to draft a pitcher, they can find one from among that crowd.

jmcclain19
05-25-2006, 01:53 PM
Baseball Prospectus did a look at the draft 1st round this morning, and also said the Reds are looking hard at Rowell, as well as Stanford pitcher Greg Reynolds.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5117


8. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are high on Reynolds and University of Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs, but it's hard to imagine a Cincinnati/Scott Boras (who is advising Stubbs) negotiation going well. Enter Billy Rowell. The New Jersey high school shortstop will end up moving to third base or even further down the defensive spectrum, but he's drawing Troy Glaus comparisons for his size, approach, natural loft and incredible leverage. He's almost certainly going to be the first high school position player off the board, and while Rowell didn't even enter the year as a first-round pick, there are whispers that the three teams ahead of the Reds have him in the back of their minds as well.

M2
05-25-2006, 02:03 PM
Reynolds certainly has the right frame - 6'7", 225 lbs

edabbs44
05-25-2006, 02:17 PM
I just hope $ doesn't play a part in their decision. I can understand if someone is demanding an obscene amt of $, but let's not overdraft someone b/c they agreed to a undermarket deal.

Javy Pornstache
05-25-2006, 02:39 PM
I like Reynolds, he's certainly shot up the boards as of late with head-to-head wins over Ian Kennedy, Dallas Buck and Brandon Morrow. He has a pretty good fastball and a good pitcher's frame as M2 suggested. I still think if Morrow's stock hasn't risen to the top five as some believe, he's the guy I'd want at 8, otherwise Daniel Bard will do for me as well. I still like him, regardless of what some scouts say of his consistency. If they are going position player (and there is certainly an abyss-like dearth of that in the Reds system to be too picky about not getting a position player), Rowell looks fine to me. I'd rather have him than Stubbs.

OnBaseMachine
05-25-2006, 03:16 PM
As long as it's not Kershaw, Drabek, Jeffress or some other HS arm, I'm cool with it. BA ranks 16 college arms in the top 30 prospects. Surely, if the Reds are going to draft a pitcher, they can find one from among that crowd.

Yep. I think I would rather stick my package in a blender rather than see the Reds draft a high school arm in the first round of this draft. There are plenty of advanced college arms available to draft a high school arm in the first round.

I would go with one of those following: Bard, Morrow, Lincoln, Max Scherzer, Linecum, Rowell or even Reynolds with the 8th overall pick, and then scoop up an Ian Kennedy or Dallas Buck in the second round if they fall that far.

A high school bat could be another option for the second round.

Aronchis
05-25-2006, 03:59 PM
If Morrow fell to the Reds, they would probably be doing what WMH's did in Major League after finding out he made the team. Morrow's stock has risen quite a bit. Supposedly his delivery was always good, but he didn't have the consistancy in it to this year. The main downside is, he is diabetic, which may turn teams off.

I would love to see Morrow and Bailey in the FSL come summer.

OnBaseMachine
05-25-2006, 04:16 PM
Three men and a maybe
Royals will draft Miller, Lincecum or Lincoln with first overall pick
By Dick Kaegel / MLB.com

KANSAS CITY -- Call them the Big Three.

They are the three most prominent names in the Royals' search for the No. 1 overall choice in the First-Year Player Draft. They have one thing in common.

"I want the best available guy," general manager Allard Baird said. "In this case, it's going to be the best available pitcher."

All three are pitchers -- college pitchers.

They are left-hander Andrew Miller of the University of North Carolina, right-hander Brad Lincoln of the University of Houston and right-hander Tim Lincecum of the University of Washington.

All three are hard throwers who, the Royals hope, could make a rapid trip to the Major Leagues.

This is the first time in franchise history that the Royals will have the first selection and they want to get it right. It's a big challenge in a year where Baird sees the talent as rather thin, with no single player dominating the scene.

Miller was forecast as the top choice by Baseball America as long ago as last winter. The Royals have paid close attention to the 6-foot-7 North Carolina lefty but have made no commitment.

"Size, leverage, quality breaking ball, good fastball with life," Baird said. "His fastball is up to 96."

However, his location and command seem to be a source of concern.

Miller has an 11-1 record and 1.71 ERA in 13 games. In 89 2/3 innings, he has 53 strikeouts and 17 walks. Opponents are hitting .206 against him.

Lincoln also has an 11-1 record with a 1.67 ERA in 15 games for Houston.

"Lincoln is strong-bodied, six-foot, 195 or 200 pounds. Above-average fastball, changeup. At times, he can be average. His strikeout pitch is his curveball," said Deric Ladnier, the Royals' senior director of scouting. "His fastball velocity fluctuated this year."

In 113 innings, Lincoln has 141 strikeouts and 26 walks. Opponents have a .197 average.

Up in Washington, Lincecum has a 12-3 record and 2.01 ERA plus three saves in 21 games. He has 185 strikeouts and 61 walks in 116 1/3 innings, holding opponents to a .168 mark.

"He doesn't use his changeup as much as he probably should. An above-average breaking ball, curveball and slider -- both of them have power and depth," Ladnier said.

"The only mark is the workload he's taken on this year. He's thrown a lot of innings, but he's maintained his stuff and we'll watch him down to the wire."

From 1997 through 2002, each of the Royals' first picks were pitchers -- Dan Reichert, Jeff Austin, Kyle Snyder, Mike Stodolka, Colt Griffin and Zack Greinke. Only Greinke, currently on disabled list, has made a significant mark in the Majors.

Their last three first choices were outfielder Chris Lubanski and third basemen Billy Butler and Alex Gordon.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060524&content_id=1469708&vkey=draft2006&fext=.jsp

cincyinco
05-25-2006, 05:54 PM
Would anyone take a chance on Hochevar?

edabbs44
05-25-2006, 06:39 PM
Would anyone take a chance on Hochevar?
Sure...if he looks good in the Indy league (which I heard he did). He was one of the highest rated pitchers last year.

One caveat...they have to be 100% sure they can sign him.

dougdirt
05-25-2006, 07:18 PM
I would take a chance at Hochever if he fell to the Reds, but I dont think he will fall that far if he makes it back into the draft.

edabbs44
05-25-2006, 11:29 PM
Jim Callis had a draft chat on Espn.com yesterday...here are the questions I found interesting.

Alex (Seattle, WA): Where do you see the Mariners going at #5? Do they pick the local kid Lincecum if he is availible?

Jim Callis: It's still early, so there's a lot more speculation than concrete info in projecting the first round at this point. (I have a mock first round from last week up at baseballamerica.com.) The Mariners probably will take a college pitcher, the strength of this draft. The name I've heard associated with them the most at this point is Luke Hochevar, who's pitching for an indy team in Fort Worth. He's showing plus stuff and so-so command, all in all been pretty impressive.

Dave (Chandler): I hear high school pitchers Kyle Drabek and Kasey Kiker have good stuff but character questions. What are the concerns? And how good is Kiker's stuff, and does he fall into the 2nd round or further?

Jim Callis: That's as much as we've felt comfortable as saying in print, and I'm not going to elaborate here. But the concerns are serious enough that Drabek could fall into the mid- to late first round, and Kiker could drop into the second. On talent alone, Drabek would be a top five or 10 pick and Kiker would go in the second half of the first round.

Jeff (Barrie, ON): Where do you think Tim Lincecum will go in the draft? Any chance he falls to the Jays?

Jim Callis: Not everyone is sold on Lincecum because of his size and delivery, and he's looking a little tired after a long season. If he doesn't go No. 1 to the Royals, and the Mariners go after Hochevar, Lincecum could drop farther than expected. But I don't think he gets to the Jays at No. 14.

Jeff (Grand Rapids, MI): Any idea who the Tigers would like to see when it's their turn to pick? I've heard that this is going to be a pretty weak draft, so are there any easy picks?

Jim Callis: The Tigers pick sixth, and I keep hearing the same two names: Texas HS LHP Clayton Kershaw and Texas Longhorns OF Drew Stubbs. They should have a chance at at least one of the two.

Bob ((Grand Rapids, MI)): Who, in your mind, in the top prospects, has the biggest chance to be a major bust and why?

Jim Callis: Three names jump out among the first 15 prospects on our Top 200 list, not necessarily as busts but as possible disappointments. Stanford RHP Greg Reynolds (No. 5) has all the ingredients scouts look for in a pitcher, but the sum is less than the total of the parts. Texas OF Drew Stubbs (No. 11) has great tools but there are a lot of questions on his bat. If he disappointed with the bat in the majors, it wouldn't be a shock. And North Carolina RHP Daniel Bard (No. 15) never has dominated consistently as much as his stuff would indicate he should.

Scott (Durham, NC): Hey Jim, Drew Stubbs seems to have fans and critics who shout equally loud. I know that BA has him ranked highly for defense and with the bat (power). Is the concern that he won't make consistent contact?

Jim Callis: Yes, that's it in a nutshell. No one doubts that he'll be a Gold Glove center fielder. He can run, he has power and he has makeup. But I have yet to talk to a scouting director who's fully convinced he'll hit.

Jeff (Iowa): Is Jaba Chamberlain still a first round pick?

Jim Callis: Yes, Nebraska RHP Joba Chamberlain is still a first-rounder despite a mild bout with triceps tendinitis this spring. He should go in the first 10-15 picks, which would make him the highest-drafted Native American ever.

JT (Lynchburg, VA): Jeremy Jeffress in our area is lighting up the guns. First round pick? Where?

Jim Callis: Definite first-round pick who has shown great velocity every time out this spring. I think he could go as high as seven (Dodgers) and as low as 19 (Marlins).

a.n. (nyc): Win shares or VORP?

Jim Callis: Plusses and minuses to both . . . I think Win Shares are more accessible to the common fan.

Superdude
05-26-2006, 12:30 AM
Kiker could drop into the second.

I sure hope these make up issues are big enough for Kiker to drop to us. Holy crap that'd be sweet!

Outshined_One
05-26-2006, 01:36 AM
See, normally makeup issues and that sort of thing make it to print. Remember when Milledge had that alleged run-in with a minor that dogged him prior to the '03 draft?

What's worrisome is that everyone is being tight-lipped about Drabek's and Kiker's issues. It's like these guys might have ties to organized crime or something.

dougdirt
05-26-2006, 02:02 AM
See, normally makeup issues and that sort of thing make it to print. Remember when Milledge had that alleged run-in with a minor that dogged him prior to the '03 draft?

What's worrisome is that everyone is being tight-lipped about Drabek's and Kiker's issues. It's like these guys might have ties to organized crime or something.

You better watch what you say or you might be enjoying some cement shoes soon :)

I do find it really odd that it is acknowledged that they have these "issues" but no one will say what that they are....it makes you wonder even more.

Outshined_One
05-26-2006, 02:22 AM
You better watch what you say or you might be enjoying some cement shoes soon :)

Don't worry, I know people who owe me favors.

They know people. :D

M2
05-26-2006, 10:10 AM
I sure hope these make up issues are big enough for Kiker to drop to us. Holy crap that'd be sweet!

I'd stay away from him. He's snapped off too many curves in his young life and he's got a reliever's build. My guess is he's already seen his best days on the baseball diamond.

cincinnati chili
05-26-2006, 10:28 AM
I wonder if some of you draft mavens can tell me about a few guys, beyond what might be obtained from Baseball America:

1. Steven Holmes - RHP at Univ. of Rhode Island
2. Chad Huffman - 2B at Texas Christian

Also, does anyone know how "committed" Torre Langley (catcher from a Georgia High school) is to Georgia Tech? I know he's not a big guy, but I don't understand why he's projected so late in te mock drafts. At the very least, he hasn't proven that he throw out runners.

jmcclain19
05-26-2006, 12:39 PM
BA's Draft Tracker -

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/features/261330.html


Here's a look at which prospects' draft stock is on the rise, and which ones are sliding down lists. One important caveat: This list is based on talent, not a prediction of the order in which the players will be selected. Players move up and down the list based on what we hear about their draft status, not based on their results.

1. Andrew Miller, lhp, North Carolina
North Carolina's all-time strikeout leader struggled in a start Wednesday against North Carolina State, coughing up an early three-run lead and yielding seven runs in six innings.

2. Tim Lincecum, rhp, Washington
No one doubts his electric stuff and everyone thinks he's a freak of nature (in a good way). But who will draft him? It's hard to find a fit two weeks out.
3. Brad Lincoln, rhp, Houston
Consistent. Plus. Stuff. And he can hit, clubbing his 12th homer Wednesday in Houston's Conference USA tournament victory.

4. Evan Longoria, 3b/2b, Long Beach State
He probably would have lasted into the 11-15 range had he been eligible in 2005, but he's a cinch to be the first college hitter drafted this year.
5. Greg Reynolds, rhp, Stanford
No draft prospect has improved his stock as much in April and May as Reynolds, whose frame and late rise remind us some of Bryan Bullington. However, Reynolds had his worst outing in a month on Friday, losing to UCLA and giving up a season-worst 11 hits.
6. Clayton Kershaw, lhp, Highland Park HS, Dallas
Coming back from a strained oblique muscle, Kershaw showed he was healthy with a truly perfect game: 15 batters faced, 15 strikeouts. He's still the top prep player on the board.
7. Joba Chamberlain, rhp, Nebraska
While he's thrown well of late, Chamberlain had to work hard to get 5 1/3 innings in his last start as the Cornhuskers continue a late-season fade.
8. Max Scherzer, rhp, Missouri
The hard-throwing Scherzer had his best results of the year at the right time, shutting down the best team he's faced all year, Texas, on three hits over seven innings.
9. Luke Hochevar, rhp, Fort Worth Cats (independent American Association)
The Dodgers still control his rights while he auditions in independent ball, and so far, he's flashed plus pitches while also showing some rust.
10. Brandon Morrow, rhp, California
He's shown improved secondary stuff and improved results (1.74 ERA) to go with his above-average velocity.
11. Drew Stubbs, of, Texas
Went 6-for-11 against Missouri with four walks over the weekend, but scouts continue to wonder about his bat.
12. Kyle Drabek, rhp/ss, The Woodlands (Texas) HS
Homered and went the distance to help lead The Woodlands into the next round of Texas' state playoffs. Even though he may be the nation's top prep position player, he has more pro value on the mound.
13. Pedro Beato, rhp, St. Petersburg (Fla.) JC
The Mets don't have a first-round pick, but they have a first-round talent under their control. Everyone expects them to sign the 17th-round 2005 draft-and-follow.
14. Jeremy Jeffress, rhp, Halifax County HS, South Boston, Va.
Big stuff in a small package. If his breaking ball were more consistent, he'd be in the top 10.
15. Daniel Bard, rhp, North Carolina
Sort of this year's version of Justin Verlander: big stuff with vexing college results. The caveat on that comparison is that Bard has never shown the kind of breaking ball Verlander had as an amateur.
16. Kyle McCulloch, rhp, Texas
Great changeup, a knack for pitching and big-game experience. Some organizations really go for that sort of thing.
17. Bill Rowell, 3b, Bishop Eustace Prep, Sewell, N.J.
Struggled in his matchup with the best pitcher in New Jersey, but he has big lefthanded power and some polish and will go good.
18. Travis Snider, of/1b, Jackson HS, Everett, Wash.
Big-bodied former football player would go higher if he were closer to 225 pounds than his current 240.
19. Brett Anderson, lhp, Stillwater (Okla.) HS
Son of OK State coach Frank Anderson has the knack for pitching usually found with college or pro pitchers.
20. Hank Conger, c, Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS
Switch-hitter with legitimate power, and his improved catching skills have impressed scouts.
21. Brett Sinkbeil, rhp, Missouri State

Made his first appearance since April with two innings out of the bullpen against Indiana State and should get a sterner test in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament.

22. David Huff, lhp, UCLA
Three schools in three years, lefty with a plus secondary pitch (a changeup) out of the Pacific-10 Conference . . . sounds a little like Barry Zito.
23. Chris Marrero, 3b, Monsignor Pace HS, Miami
Top prep bat in the preseason, he was outshined by his teammate, Adrian Cardenas, all season and saw his stock slip.
24. Justin Masterson, rhp, San Diego State
Giant (6-foot-6, 245 pounds) righthander was roughed up by Utah in the Mountain West tournament (five innings, six runs), likely his last college start.

25. Jordan Walden, rhp, Mansfield (Texas) HS
Preseason No. 1 prep talent hasn't shown the 99 mph gas he showed last summer to earn his former lofty status.
26. Chris Parmelee, of/1b, Chino Hills (Calif.) HS
Not the best prep hitter in the West (that's Snider) or the most powerful (Conger), but could be the best combination of the two.
27. Matt Antonelli, 3b/2b, Wake Forest
Athletic, patient, projectable college bat considered the second-safest pick after Longoria, probably will get drafted considerably higher than 27th.
28. Kasey Kiker, lhp, Russell County HS, Seale, Ala.
Significant track record for a prep lefty, and he has good stuff, but the makeup makes teams antsy to pop him in the first round.
29. Bryan Morris, rhp, Motlow State (Tenn.) CC
Couldn't work things out with the Devil Rays last spring but remains under control, and with his stuff (94-96 mph fastball, big, hard curve), he's not likely to re-enter the draft.
30. Kevin Mulvey, rhp, Villanova
Ignore his 3-8 record, and focus instead on Mulvey's sound mechanics, plus stuff and control (23 BB, 88 SO in 92 IP). His season is done, as 'Nova failed to qualify for the Big East tournament.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2006, 08:48 AM
Quick update from Friday's game on the three primary college players being mentioned as a possible Reds pick:

Drew Stubbs: 4-for-5 with a HR, three singles, walk

Brandon Morrow: 3.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Greg Reynolds: 9 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 9 K

cincyinco
05-27-2006, 11:57 PM
I think its entirely possible that if KC and the Mariners dont take Lincecum that he could fall to us... I'd take him, make him sit until next year as he's had a long year.. I would be ecstatic if we landed him.

edabbs44
05-31-2006, 01:57 PM
I think its entirely possible that if KC and the Mariners dont take Lincecum that he could fall to us... I'd take him, make him sit until next year as he's had a long year.. I would be ecstatic if we landed him.
I just want one of the top college pitchers available in the 1st. That will make me happy. :) A HS pitcher would make me sad. :(

But the 2nd round looks pretty good also...there are a lot of big names trickling into the 40 or 50 range. Two I have seen are Kennedy and LaPorta. Landing either of those 2 in the 2nd would be great.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 03:29 PM
I just want one of the top college pitchers available in the 1st. That will make me happy. :) A HS pitcher would make me sad. :(

sigh.....
Who is to say that some "college pitcher" is a better bet than Kershaw? Becuase he came from a college draft with hardly any talent that is pitching heavy only becuase it is hitting empty?

cincyinco
05-31-2006, 04:42 PM
I personally agree w/you Dougdirt. We've had this debate before plenty of times on this board, so lets not rehash it here. I've been given evidence to show that college ptichers is the way to go, and I've also GIVEN OTHERS evidence that shows that its really not true as a whole and is completely overblown.

That said, I too would be dissapointed if this year, we took a HS arm. The reason is because I think if we could get a college arm that is close to ready(i.e. a Jared Weaver type), then we could have a small window of 2007/2008/2009 that we could legitemittly contend for the playoffs with.

And sorry for my attrocious spelling..

M2
05-31-2006, 05:11 PM
sigh.....
Who is to say that some "college pitcher" is a better bet than Kershaw? Becuase he came from a college draft with hardly any talent that is pitching heavy only becuase it is hitting empty?

The enitre history of the draft where kids like Kershaw have NEVER made it.

Besides that, the Reds have already put too many eggs in the HS pitching basket. It's time the organization went out and got a more mature arm in a draft filled with more mature arms to choose from.

Outshined_One
05-31-2006, 05:43 PM
That said, I too would be dissapointed if this year, we took a HS arm. The reason is because I think if we could get a college arm that is close to ready(i.e. a Jared Weaver type), then we could have a small window of 2007/2008/2009 that we could legitemittly contend for the playoffs with.

Problem is, there aren't any pitchers like that in this year's draft. Weaver would have most likely gone #1 overall in his draft two years ago had it not been for Scott Boras (although Stephen Drew was also in that draft...and advised by Boras). No one in this draft has a comparable combination of size, stuff, ceiling, production in college, and likelihood of making an immediate impact in the majors, as far as I can tell.

gonelong
05-31-2006, 05:46 PM
I personally agree w/you Dougdirt. We've had this debate before plenty of times on this board, so lets not rehash it here. I've been given evidence to show that college ptichers is the way to go, and I've also GIVEN OTHERS evidence that shows that its really not true as a whole and is completely overblown.

You keep saying this, but I don't recall the thread off the top of my head. If you could post the link I'd like to go back and read the thread to consider your argument.

Thanks in advance.

GL

M2
05-31-2006, 06:08 PM
Problem is, there aren't any pitchers like that in this year's draft. Weaver would have most likely gone #1 overall in his draft two years ago had it not been for Scott Boras (although Stephen Drew was also in that draft...and advised by Boras). No one in this draft has a comparable combination of size, stuff, ceiling, production in college, and likelihood of making an immediate impact in the majors, as far as I can tell.

No, but there are a lot of pitching fish in the collegiate waters this year. That's where I'd be sending my fleet in the hopes of a big score.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 07:08 PM
The enitre history of the draft where kids like Kershaw have NEVER made it.

Besides that, the Reds have already put too many eggs in the HS pitching basket. It's time the organization went out and got a more mature arm in a draft filled with more mature arms to choose from.

Kerry Wood.
John Patterson.
Josh Beckett.
Adam Wainwright.
Jeremy Bonderman.
Zach Grienke (minus his illness)
CC Sabathia
Scott Kazmir
Matt Cain
Cole Hamels (despite injuries, still one of the better pitchers around)

They all will disagree that guys like Kershaw have never made it. They made it, and those were just the ones off the top of my head who made it.

While I will agree that the Reds probably need a HS arm if they are going for pitching in the first round this year, I dont think that its an absolute must of not drafting high school pitchers in the first round simply because "you put too many eggs in that basket".

M2
05-31-2006, 07:54 PM
Kerry Wood.
John Patterson.
Josh Beckett.
Adam Wainwright.
Jeremy Bonderman.
Zach Grienke (minus his illness)
CC Sabathia
Scott Kazmir
Matt Cain
Cole Hamels (despite injuries, still one of the better pitchers around)

They all will disagree that guys like Kershaw have never made it. They made it, and those were just the ones off the top of my head who made it.

While I will agree that the Reds probably need a HS arm if they are going for pitching in the first round this year, I dont think that its an absolute must of not drafting high school pitchers in the first round simply because "you put too many eggs in that basket".

Don't even mention Wood, Kazmir and Beckett in the same sentence with Kershaw. They were heads and shoulders the best pitchers in the draft in their respective years. Kershaw's nowhere near that. Patterson never delivered a thing for the D-Backs, the team that raised him from a puppy and he's right now residing in the one-hit wonder file. So unless your goal is to spend a lot money on a guy who delivers for someone else, I don't see why he'd be something you'd want to emulate.

Bonderman's in his fourth season and has never put together a good year (and seems to be in no danger of it in 2006). He's also not working for the team that drafted him. Greinke washed out last season and who knows if you'll ever see him again. So no thanks on drafting that.

Hamels seems unlikely to keep his arm attached to his body long enough to ever make a difference.

Sabathia, Cain and Wainwright were all picked in the 20s. If you've got a twentysomething pick, be my guest to take a HS arm if there's one you really love on the board. They're not really much more a crapshoot than anyone else at that point (though I don't particulary like Cain's chances).

Yet if you've got the #8 pick and Kershaw's there and he isn't the class of the pitching field? Man, that just never works. I mean never. It's the Dead Zone.

As for the Reds, the organization is still paper thin in upper level pitching. DanO added no stock in that regard. The best pitching prospects from his regime are working on cycles that still have four and five years remaining. Getting a more advanced arm who could make the majors inside a three-year cycle would partially address the gaping hole in the organization's farm system.

Aside from that, diversifying your portfolio is usually a solid notion.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 08:03 PM
Yet if you've got the #8 pick and Kershaw's there and he isn't the class of the pitching field? Man, that just never works. I mean never. It's the Dead Zone.


M2, I love how you always twist things to prove your point. If you have the #8 pick, no pitcher is going to be the class of the pitching field, because Andrew Miller is going #1 or #2. After him, there is quite a drop off. Usually thats how it is. I think I just need to quit responding to anything you say. We usually are polar opposites on our opinions and I think it will just save the both of us time.

Patrick Bateman
05-31-2006, 08:07 PM
Bonderman's in his fourth season and has never put together a good year (and seems to be in no danger of it in 2006).

The only thing I disagree with is Bonderman. His ERA is quite high (4.61), but his peripherals suggest that he is pitching much better than his ERA indicates.

HR/9: 0.64
K/9: 7.42
BB/9: 2.44
K/BB: 3.05

He's pitching a lot better than it looks. He's an improved pitcher from last season. This may indeed be the breakout year he's been looking for.

Larkin411
05-31-2006, 08:07 PM
I think I read a whole series of articles on Baseball Prospectus discussing the HS vs. College player question. The conclusion was the statistical advantage of a college player has decreased greatly. Some assume it is related to higher signing bonus that encourages HS star players to forgo college. The main advantage now is a pitcher from college might spend more time in the majors before free agency rather than they're intrinsically more talented or a safer bet. It's not a huge advantage but worth considering, in some cases, since the Reds aren't exactly the Yankees.

Btw, if anyone is interested I could post the relevant BP articles.

M2
05-31-2006, 08:18 PM
M2, I love how you always twist things to prove your point. If you have the #8 pick, no pitcher is going to be the class of the pitching field, because Andrew Miller is going #1 or #2. After him, there is quite a drop off. Usually thats how it is. I think I just need to quit responding to anything you say. We usually are polar opposites on our opinions and I think it will just save the both of us time.

While I agree that you usually can't get the class of the pitching field at #8, you could have gotten Kazmir or Jered Weaver there.

Anyway, I'm not twisting anything. I'm being quite clear on this. So pay attention, because I'm about to say it again: If a prep arm isn't the clear class of the overall pitching field, then don't draft him in the top 15 because it almost never works out (1 for 26 in the 90s).

As for the rest, I agree that you need to quit doing something. That's for sure.

M2
05-31-2006, 08:22 PM
I think I read a whole series of articles on Baseball Prospectus discussing the HS vs. College player question. The conclusion was the statistical advantage of a college player has decreased greatly. Some assume it is related to higher signing bonus that encourages HS star players to forgo college. The main advantage now is a pitcher from college might spend more time in the majors before free agency rather than they're intrinsically more talented or a safer bet. It's not a huge advantage but worth considering, in some cases, since the Reds aren't exactly the Yankees.

Btw, if anyone is interested I could post the relevant BP articles.

Those were mildly interesting. Though the problem I've found with all studies like that is they're too broad to provide any real insight. If you're spending $2.5M on a high pick, you don't need to know about general trends reflecting (largely) the odds of later rounds, you need to know how to best invest that big chunk of cash.

Outshined_One
05-31-2006, 08:22 PM
While I agree that you usually can't get the class of the pitching field at #8, you could have gotten Kazmir or Jered Weaver there.

Scott Boras saw to that with Weaver. Otherwise, he would have been gone in the first three picks.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 08:24 PM
While I agree that you usually can't get the class of the pitching field at #8, you could have gotten Kazmir or Jered Weaver there.

Anyway, I"m not twisting anything. I'm being quite clear on this. So pay attention, because I'm about to say it again: If a prep arm isn't the clear class of the overall pitching field, then don't draft in the top 15 because it almost never works out (1 for 26 in the 90s).

As for the rest, I agree that you need to quit doing something. That's for sure.

So Kazmir,a high school pitcher, who now has proven to be a successful major league pitcher would have been ok to take in 2003 at #8, but another high school pitcher isnt because they are too much of a risk?

See, this is why I cant talk to you about this.
I am done with it.

ochre
05-31-2006, 08:26 PM
talent-wise Kazmir was among the elite pitchers that year. Scott Boras scared people away.

Patrick Bateman
05-31-2006, 08:27 PM
So Kazmir,a high school pitcher, who now has proven to be a successful major league pitcher would have been ok to take in 2003 at #8, but another high school pitcher isnt because they are too much of a risk?


At the time though, there weren't many great college arms. Kazmir was the top pitcher available for that reason. He was still a risk because of injury/not developing, but he still had the best combination of upside and chance of making the majors. That's what put him ahead of the other pitchers. The other pitchers such as Gruler, Greinke were not considered as good of prospects at the time.

M2
05-31-2006, 08:29 PM
So Kazmir,a high school pitcher, who now has proven to be a successful major league pitcher would have been ok to take in 2003 at #8, but another high school pitcher isnt because they are too much of a risk?

See, this is why I cant talk to you about this.
I am done with it.

It's not really a hard concept to grasp. Baseball professionals have a historical inability to identify the true best talents from the prep arm ranks. It's only when there's a prep arm who ranks as the consensus best pitcher in the draft (e.g. it's so obvious that nearly everyone recognizes it) that the risk becomes one worth taking. Kazmir was that kind of pitcher. Kershaw isn't.

NewEraReds
05-31-2006, 08:52 PM
I just want one of the top college pitchers available in the 1st. That will make me happy. :) A HS pitcher would make me sad. :(

But the 2nd round looks pretty good also...there are a lot of big names trickling into the 40 or 50 range. Two I have seen are Kennedy and LaPorta. Landing either of those 2 in the 2nd would be great.
i wouldnt want kennedy in the first 5 rounds. he is highly over rated. laporta and dallessio are 2 2nd/4th round guys i hope we have a shot at

NewEraReds
05-31-2006, 08:53 PM
I personally agree w/you Dougdirt. We've had this debate before plenty of times on this board, so lets not rehash it here. I've been given evidence to show that college ptichers is the way to go, and I've also GIVEN OTHERS evidence that shows that its really not true as a whole and is completely overblown.

That said, I too would be dissapointed if this year, we took a HS arm. The reason is because I think if we could get a college arm that is close to ready(i.e. a Jared Weaver type), then we could have a small window of 2007/2008/2009 that we could legitemittly contend for the playoffs with.

And sorry for my attrocious spelling..
yea, thats quality thinking right there, insert RYAN WAGNER

edabbs44
05-31-2006, 09:29 PM
Kerry Wood.
John Patterson.
Josh Beckett.
Adam Wainwright.
Jeremy Bonderman.
Zach Grienke (minus his illness)
CC Sabathia
Scott Kazmir
Matt Cain
Cole Hamels (despite injuries, still one of the better pitchers around)

They all will disagree that guys like Kershaw have never made it. They made it, and those were just the ones off the top of my head who made it.

While I will agree that the Reds probably need a HS arm if they are going for pitching in the first round this year, I dont think that its an absolute must of not drafting high school pitchers in the first round simply because "you put too many eggs in that basket".
I am for the college pitcher this year b/c they are, most likely, closer to the majors than a high school pitcher. I think the Reds have the hitting in place and by the time a few HS pitchers get to the majors, Dunn and Co. will be headed for NY or another big market. I don't think it is college ranks at all costs, but I think there are enough college pitchers to take one in the 1st and possibly the 2nd.

Outshined_One
05-31-2006, 09:41 PM
It's not really a hard concept to grasp. Baseball professionals have a historical inability to identify the true best talents from the prep arm ranks. It's only when there's a prep arm who ranks as the consensus best pitcher in the draft (e.g. it's so obvious that nearly everyone recognizes it) that the risk becomes one worth taking. Kazmir was that kind of pitcher. Kershaw isn't.

See, I think that's a bit of a misnomer. Clearly there are a number of guys drafted out of high school who pitch in the majors today; if there weren't, clearly people would stop drafting those guys. In a lot of cases, guys in high school who otherwise would be high round picks drop because of signability issues. If a guy has a strong commitment to a certain college, he will be much harder to sign. Even if the guy is shooting up the boards and could be the top HS pitcher taken, he could turn teams down. Boras HS clients are notorious for this; he wants his guys to go through college.

Also, it's not just high school pitchers who scouts have trouble identifying as possible top talents. How about high school hitters? Junior college pitchers? College hitters? In fact, it seems more like that unless a guy is a sure thing, there's a likelihood that the guy won't be worth taking, as it were. And even in a number of cases, those sure things could still bust. Injuries happen to everyone in baseball, no matter how talented, in shape, and mechanically sound they may be. Look at how many busts there have been in every draft, it's almost as if scouts have a historical inability to identify the true best talents in any draft, period!

Finally, Kazmir was not a Boras client. Moorad represented him in that draft, according to BA. One of the reasons why he dropped to the Mutts was because rumors were flying about his contract demands.

M2
05-31-2006, 09:50 PM
See, I think that's a bit of a misnomer. Clearly there are a number of guys drafted out of high school who pitch in the majors today; if there weren't, clearly people would stop drafting those guys.

Well sure. Though I'm not saying don't draft HS arms. All I'm saying is MLB scouting departments have yet to figure out to pick them with the higher degrees of accuracy you see with the best college arms, HS players and college players.

It's a weird blind spot. You'd expect some sort random luck to hit, but it almost never does. With the guys I'm talking about (top 15 picks, not the best overall pitcher on the board) you're talking about Kent Mercker, Scott Garrelts, Steve Trout and the Blue Jays model of Chris Carpenter as the best overall returns on prep arms for the teams that picked them (that's over the last 30 drafts).

That just screams electrified third rail to me.

Superdude
05-31-2006, 09:53 PM
laporta and dallessio are 2 2nd/4th round guys i hope we have a shot at

Has Laporta dropped that far? It'd be awesome to get the most power potential in the draft with our second round pick. If somebody takes him though, I'd look for Max Sapp or possibly Kasey Kiker in the second.

Is it a possibility that Dallas Buck could be available in the second round? He hasn't had a great year with control, but he's supposed to have a fastball around 90MPH and a nasty slider.

cincyinco
06-01-2006, 12:10 AM
yea, thats quality thinking right there, insert RYAN WAGNER

Oh please, save the drama. Ryan Wagner is a relief pitcher.

And Jared Weaver is in the bigs. I dont think Marrow/Lincecum/Lincoln are that far off personally. A year or two at most.

Javy Pornstache
06-01-2006, 01:36 AM
Has Laporta dropped that far? It'd be awesome to get the most power potential in the draft with our second round pick. If somebody takes him though, I'd look for Max Sapp or possibly Kasey Kiker in the second.

Is it a possibility that Dallas Buck could be available in the second round? He hasn't had a great year with control, but he's supposed to have a fastball around 90MPH and a nasty slider.

I am not sure about LaPorta, I have seen a few people suggesting he's a second rounder now but he could still very well go in the first or at least supplemental round between first and second.

Buck is a guy I've been paying attention to myself as a guy who's fallen off into a second round guy now along with conference mate Ian Kennedy. From most accounts, he will be available in the second, and I don't think it would hurt to take him in the second even if we have a college pitcher in the first as I am definitely hoping for (Morrow or Bard are my preferences; I like Lincoln a lot also but doubt he'll be there at 8). Postion players are certainly lacking but to get two potentially good college arms in the first couple rounds to help stock upper-level minors in a short time would seem more important in the interim. The control problems Buck has suffered some of the year are definitely attention-grabbing, but from what I've read of scouts, at least at last check, it isn't anything too alarming and is still considered a second round talent.

Outshined_One
06-01-2006, 02:46 AM
Buck's had the same problems as Kennedy in that he's lost his velocity this season, iirc.

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2006, 08:38 AM
MLB.com has updated their mock draft. I like this pick.

8. Cincinnati Reds: Tim Lincecum, University of Washington

It'll be a decision between a high school bat (New Jersey's Bill Rowell) and a college arm. Rowell was being brought in for a private workout, and if he wowed the Reds brass, they could still go with the future third baseman. Cincy's interest in Lincecum is relatively new news to me, but he is a guy who, if he goes into the 'pen, could be up by August. He's got electric stuff and a rubber arm, but the questions about his size (5-foot-10) and durability remain -- the reason he will likely slip down this far after being talked about in the top spot.
Last week's projection: Bill Rowell

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article_perspectives.jsp?ymd=20060531&content_id=1481230&vkey=perspectives&fext=.jsp

LoganBuck
06-01-2006, 08:42 AM
Is Lincecum a closer candidate?

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2006, 08:52 AM
Is Lincecum a closer candidate?

I like him more as a starter. I've heard him compared to Roy Oswalt.

ochre
06-01-2006, 10:53 AM
I'm not a fan of drafting relief pitchers of any ilk in the first round. If you don't project them to be a reasonably ceilinged starter, then just pick someone else. That was what I thought about Wagner when he was picked. Hopefully they'll give Lincecum a chance to start, but he sounds to be of similar stature as Medlock, so if they take him they'll likely make him a reliever at some point, regardless of how he performs starting.

M2
06-01-2006, 11:45 AM
I agree that if the Reds will be taking a pitcher their intention had better be to make that pitcher a starter. IMO, that was the major sin with Wagner. He had electric stuff and JimBo and Co. got it in their heads they could rush that to the majors in the pen at a time when a primo closer wasn't going to make much of a difference for the club.

Meanwhile, had the plan for Wagner been to do the more involved work of training him to be a starter (and the crucial question for the scouts should have been CAN he be an effective starter?), then he might be on the doorstep of the majors right now. He doesn't turn 24 until July. Imagine having a big hoss starter to add to Harang and Arroyo in the near future. Pretty tasty scenario, IMO.

As for the Linecum speculation, I'd be amazed if he's there for the Reds and thrilled if the club takes him. In general BA has been all over where players are falling in the draft in recent years and they still seem to think he's going inside the top 5.

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 01:21 PM
there is just 2 things i dont want to see, and they go hand in hand kind of. that is drafting....

....a player you plan to move to the pen
....a player just cause he is most ready


if you turn a starter into a closer/reliever later on okay, but dont draft a guy at 8 overall planning to do this. and please, please dont draft on most ready. that will having you losing now and in the future. you need to draft the best players possible. i dont want a guy who is ready now, i want the best players. now if best and most ready are one in the same, then that is GREAT. i dont care about hs, college, pitcher, positional, i just want who we feel is the best

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 01:23 PM
I'm not a fan of drafting relief pitchers of any ilk in the first round. If you don't project them to be a reasonably ceilinged starter, then just pick someone else. That was what I thought about Wagner when he was picked. Hopefully they'll give Lincecum a chance to start, but he sounds to be of similar stature as Medlock, so if they take him they'll likely make him a reliever at some point, regardless of how he performs starting.
i just cant see how you can draft that way in the top 10. with all the talent that is out there, how can you be drafting a guy who you plan to use 80-100 innings a year at most

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 01:24 PM
I agree that if the Reds will be taking a pitcher their intention had better be to make that pitcher a starter. IMO, that was the major sin with Wagner. He had electric stuff and JimBo and Co. got it in their heads they could rush that to the majors in the pen at a time when a primo closer wasn't going to make much of a difference for the club.

Meanwhile, had the plan for Wagner been to do the more involved work of training him to be a starter (and the crucial question for the scouts should have been CAN he be an effective starter?), then he might be on the doorstep of the majors right now. He doesn't turn 24 until July. Imagine having a big hoss starter to add to Harang and Arroyo in the near future. Pretty tasty scenario, IMO.

As for the Linecum speculation, I'd be amazed if he's there for the Reds and thrilled if the club takes him. In general BA has been all over where players are falling in the draft in recent years and they still seem to think he's going inside the top 5.which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neither

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 01:26 PM
Oh please, save the drama. Ryan Wagner is a relief pitcher.

And Jared Weaver is in the bigs. I dont think Marrow/Lincecum/Lincoln are that far off personally. A year or two at most.
im not questioning picking those guys, if they are the BEST player. im questioning your logic and others of taking the most ready. who cares if the guy is most ready if he isnt the best. if they are most ready and the best, then great.

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 01:27 PM
Has Laporta dropped that far? It'd be awesome to get the most power potential in the draft with our second round pick. If somebody takes him though, I'd look for Max Sapp or possibly Kasey Kiker in the second.

Is it a possibility that Dallas Buck could be available in the second round? He hasn't had a great year with control, but he's supposed to have a fastball around 90MPH and a nasty slider.
he may still go in the first do to what he did before and if scouts feel he will regain it. i personally think he got out of whack after the injury he had and just didnt come back well. the entire team had a horrible year.

M2
06-01-2006, 01:33 PM
which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neither

Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well.

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 01:38 PM
Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well. never, come on dude, quit making yourself look like an :mooner: :) :)

seriously, man what the heck did kershaw have to do with my post anyway. just cause you like to bash hs pitchers doesnt mean you have to hijack every post

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 01:47 PM
Sure, draft the best, but realize that HS arms like Kershaw never turn out to be the best. It's like fishing in a dry well.
M2 I have shown you HS pitchers that have come along and been just fine. Just because you hate the idea of a HS pitcher doesnt mean you have to dog it every time it is brought up.

edabbs44
06-01-2006, 01:53 PM
which is why you draft by who is best, not who is most ready, imo. 3 years ago we drafted for who will be here quickest. if we would have drafted and developed the best, we may have that starter now. as it turns out, we for the most part, got neither
Don't use Wagner as an example, b/c Howington and Gruler damaged the Reds system more than Wagner did. At least Wagner reached the majors and had success ,though very limited success, in the bigs and still has the potential to help. Gruler and Ty are either gone (TH) or years, if ever, away (CG).

edabbs44
06-01-2006, 02:05 PM
Supposedly the Reds are thinking about Drabek in the 1st round...

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 02:10 PM
Where did you read/hear that at edabbs44?

edabbs44
06-01-2006, 02:18 PM
Where did you read/hear that at edabbs44?
Yesterday's chat on BA with Callis...they said they'll have an article coming out soon that might shed some light on the character issue rumors going around. They also said they can't see the Reds going over slot $ to pick/sign Hochevar. Premium content info.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/majors/features/261533.html

M2
06-01-2006, 03:07 PM
M2 I have shown you HS pitchers that have come along and been just fine. Just because you hate the idea of a HS pitcher doesnt mean you have to dog it every time it is brought up.

No, you haven't. You haven't shown me a single top 15 HS arm selection who wasn't the best overall pitcher in the draft who's been able to deliver big for the team that drafted him.

The reason why is simple. That pitcher doesn't exist (at least not in the past 35 years). I've never once said HS arms never pan out or anything like it. What I have said is the industry has been uniformly horrible at identifying the ones who will. Unless you've got a talent that no one in all of modern professional baseball scouting has ever demonstrated then I'm going to consider Kershaw just another flavor-of-the-day HS arm not worth the millions he'd be due to get on a #8 pick.

Will some HS arm from this draft go on to have a really good career as a starter? Probably. Yet neither you, nor I, nor Baseball America, nor any one person in any major league scouting department has a real good guess as to who it will be. The top drafted HS arm usually turns out to be a J.M. Gold-level bust. Kershaw probably won't even be considered the top prep arm from this year's prep ranks by the end of August. He certainly wasn't considered anything close to it three months ago. Kids like him come and go.

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 03:15 PM
M2, I refuse to believe that simply because someone was drafted at #15 instead of #16 has anything whatsoever to do with the chances that they will succeed as a pitcher. It makes absolutely no sense and is simply a thing of dumb luck that it has worked out that way.
I mean of all the #1 overall picks, more often than not, they fail to live up to it. I mean really, you have Griffey, Arod, Chipper Jones and who? Darryl Strawberry . Thats it. So what 4 out of 40? The entire draft is a crapshoot. No one is a sure thing.

M2
06-01-2006, 03:27 PM
M2, I refuse to believe that simply because someone was drafted at #15 instead of #16 has anything whatsoever to do with the chances that they will succeed as a pitcher. It makes absolutely no sense and is simply a thing of dumb luck that it has worked out that way.
I mean of all the #1 overall picks, more often than not, they fail to live up to it. I mean really, you have Griffey, Arod, Chipper Jones and who? Darryl Strawberry . Thats it. So what 4 out of 40? The entire draft is a crapshoot. No one is a sure thing.

Prices start to drop in the latter of the draft and I've said before, when they do and your overall odds on landing something from the college arm ranks falls down to where it is in the HS arm ranks, then feel free to draft pitcher.

You've got this all backwards. Where the guy is selected has nothing to do with whether he'll make it. The problem with HS arms, and this is 35 years and running, is that no one reallly knows which ones to pick up high. Unless you're convinced you're smarter than everybody else who's been screwing it up for the last 35 years, then I'd say stay away from HS arms on high first round picks. Sheer random luck would suggest someday somebody's got to get it right, but I wouldn't want to spend $2.5M in the hopes that sheer random luck smiles upon me.

Meanwhile, you've got a about a 32% chance of having a college arm turn out if he goes in the top 15 picks and it's probably higher than that if you weed out finesse/pitchability guys. So, while the draft may be full of risk, some risks have proven clearly better than others.

Red Heeler
06-01-2006, 04:51 PM
im not questioning picking those guys, if they are the BEST player. im questioning your logic and others of taking the most ready. who cares if the guy is most ready if he isnt the best. if they are most ready and the best, then great.

Player A has a 40% chance of being a #3 starter within 3 years.
Player B has a 20% chance of being a #1 starter within 5 years.

Who do you take?

I take A every single time. Small market teams can only afford to have a few really good players on their team for any length of time. The key to being able to afford the really good players is to be able to fill in around them with inexpensive talent from the minors on a regular basis. The Braves have won their division for umpteen years running based on a higher priced version of this system.

cincyinco
06-01-2006, 05:00 PM
I think Hochevar goes to the Mariners. Rumors are also out there that the Royals are looking at Luke.

Its just a hunch, but I have a feeling Lincecum could fall to us. Its a gut feeling. KC will not pick Lincecum. The Rockies will pick Longoria. The M's may take Lincecum, but reportedly are enamored with Hochevar. After that I think some of the teams before us prefer guys like Lincoln or Marrow over Lincecum. The one kink in my theory may be the Dodgers, but I'm banking on them picking a prep star. Logan White loves the highschool kids.

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 05:04 PM
I have seen several places that have either the Dodgers or Tigers taking Kershaw. He will go to one of them. I think the Tigers will end up taking him. They have the pitching that they wont have to rush him and can give him the time he needs to develop.

M2
06-01-2006, 05:04 PM
Logan White loves the highschool kids.

He'd best be careful that he doesn't get caught in a Dateline NBC sting.

NewEraReds
06-01-2006, 05:05 PM
Player A has a 40% chance of being a #3 starter within 3 years.
Player B has a 20% chance of being a #1 starter within 5 years.

Who do you take?

I take A every single time. Small market teams can only afford to have a few really good players on their team for any length of time. The key to being able to afford the really good players is to be able to fill in around them with inexpensive talent from the minors on a regular basis. The Braves have won their division for umpteen years running based on a higher priced version of this system.
B every time, by your theory, after 5 drafts, you will have either

a - 2 number 3 starters
b - 1 number 1 starter

ill take 1 no.1 over 2 no. 3s everytime. you can get a no. 3 through trade or free agency. reds cant get a no. 1 through those 2 outlets

cincyinco
06-01-2006, 05:29 PM
He'd best be careful that he doesn't get caught in a Dateline NBC sting.

haha.. good one :)

Here's how I see round 1 going until our pick

Royals - Miller
Rockies - Longoria
Devil Rays - Lincoln
Pirates - Reynolds
Mariners - Hochevar
Tigers - Stubbs
Dodgers - Kershaw
Reds - LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or Marrow!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading the Reds haven't expressed much interest in Lincecum, but he'd be hard to ignore I think. Krivs wants clean delivery pitcher, and Lincecum is not that, he's also short and righthanded. A little unconventional. But this guy reminds me of Oswalt. I'd take him.

That said, I dont think you can go wrong with Marrow either. We should be able to land a very good college pitcher with our pick.

M2
06-01-2006, 05:35 PM
haha.. good one :)

Here's how I see round 1 going until our pick

Royals - Miller
Rockies - Longoria
Devil Rays - Lincoln
Pirates - Reynolds
Mariners - Hochevar
Tigers - Stubbs
Dodgers - Kershaw
Reds - LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or Marrow!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading the Reds haven't expressed much interest in Lincecum, but he'd be hard to ignore I think. Krivs wants clean delivery pitcher, and Lincecum is not that, he's also short and righthanded. A little unconventional. But this guy reminds me of Oswalt. I'd take him.

That said, I dont think you can go wrong with Marrow either. We should be able to land a very good college pitcher with our pick.

I couldn't be happier than if that's how it played out.

cincyinco
06-01-2006, 05:37 PM
I couldn't be happier than if that's how it played out.

Man, I'm getting stoked for draft day.. haha. I love the draft.

I defenitely think either Marrow or Lincecum will be there. I will be super happy with either one, but Lincecum reminds me of Oswalt for some reason.. I hope Krivsky would consider taking a chance on him, even if he is a short right hander.

He looks durable to me.. and led the NCAA in K's eh? He might not have Marrows heat, but its not like he's sitting at 89 like Scherzer either. Reports say he gained a notch on an already plus fastball, and adding muscle to his frame has enabled him to reach 98mph. Thats plenty fast. Lincecum also sports one of the best curves in the country. Also sports a slider and change up.

edabbs44
06-01-2006, 05:41 PM
We should get a fresh draft thread going next week...this one has reached 11 pages already.

jmcclain19
06-01-2006, 05:42 PM
I could see the draft panning out like that, although I highly doubt the Tigers would let Kershaw slip by. That guy has Detroit Pitching MO written all over him.

And if the Dodgers take another HS bat - a Rowell for example, that would fit into what scares me the most, the Reds picking with Drew Stubbs available. I'm thinking this guy is BJ Syzmanski Part II and the Reds would be all over that with arms like Linecum, Morrow and Bard still available.

I'm hoping the teams picking 1 thru 7 save the Reds scouting dept from themselves and take Stubbs & Kershaw off the table before it gets to pick No. 8

cincyinco
06-01-2006, 05:49 PM
If Marrow is there, I dont think Krivsky will hesitate to take him - unless Lincecum is there. But Marrow seems to be just what Krivsky ordered.

1) a pitcher
2) a pitcher with a clean delivery
3) a pitcher with a classic pitcher's frame

There are still questions regarding marrow, but I like Krivsky's ability to judge talent. Marrow kind of reminds me of Verlander before heading into the draft. Questions surrounding their command of the zone. Verlander turned out to be great. Marrow may turn out to be along the same lines.

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 05:50 PM
Drew Stubbs is the last guy I want with our pick....well at least for who will go between 1-15

cincyinco
06-01-2006, 05:53 PM
Drew Stubbs is the last guy I want with our pick....well at least for who will go between 1-15

Agreed..

To many questions about his bat.

Though his other tools are impressive. With Krivsky liking defense, he may factor that into his pick. But I just can't see, with the glaring need for pitching and this draft being so heavy with college pitching, Krivsky taking a positional player.

I think I'll be dissapointed if that were to happen. I believe in drafting best talent and not for need for sure.. but beyond Miller and Longoria, I think everyone has their question marks. The concensus best talent can be heavily debated.

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 06:10 PM
Well, if we believe what Krivsky has said, he isnt going to have much to say at all on the draft picks, he said he is leaving that up to his scouts. I just pray they were the same scouts who saw the holes in his swing that everyone is saying he has.

Red Heeler
06-01-2006, 07:13 PM
B every time, by your theory, after 5 drafts, you will have either

a - 2 number 3 starters
b - 1 number 1 starter

ill take 1 no.1 over 2 no. 3s everytime. you can get a no. 3 through trade or free agency. reds cant get a no. 1 through those 2 outlets

Best case scenario you have a #1 after 5 drafts. Worst case, you have a guy who will be a #1 in another 4 years.

And why can't the Reds get a #1 through trade or free agency? Other teams manage to do it all the time. It is simply a matter of arranging the budget accordingly and having a steady enough supply of inexpensive replacements to fill out the roster.

Javy Pornstache
06-01-2006, 08:06 PM
haha.. good one :)

Here's how I see round 1 going until our pick

Royals - Miller
Rockies - Longoria
Devil Rays - Lincoln
Pirates - Reynolds
Mariners - Hochevar
Tigers - Stubbs
Dodgers - Kershaw
Reds - LINCECUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Or Marrow!!!!!!!!!!

I keep reading the Reds haven't expressed much interest in Lincecum, but he'd be hard to ignore I think. Krivs wants clean delivery pitcher, and Lincecum is not that, he's also short and righthanded. A little unconventional. But this guy reminds me of Oswalt. I'd take him.

That said, I dont think you can go wrong with Marrow either. We should be able to land a very good college pitcher with our pick.

That would be fantastic if that's how it turned out, I am really hoping. However, I think Greg Reynolds' hype has faded a little, and he might not be selected till the teens now... I don't think Pittsburgh takes him at #4 over Morrow at this point. But even if so, Lincecum and Bard should be there at 8 and I would love the Reds to get either. Morrow is the one I like the most, but I'd be happy with Lincecum or Bard, that's for sure. The rest of it looks quite plausible, and could still happen the way cincyinco listed; just going by what I recently have gathered on Reynolds.

Betterread
06-01-2006, 11:47 PM
[QUOTE=cincyinco]Agreed..

To many questions about his bat.
QUOTE]

Questions about his bat?- in 58 games his ObP+SLP was 1.050+
He started every game and while he Struck out 53 times in 58 games, he walked 40 times. Sounds a lot like a budding Adam Dunn to me. If he drops to the Reds, I really hope they select him.

edabbs44
06-02-2006, 12:01 AM
Question: After Moneyball hit the stands, everybody was infatuated with drafting college pitchers and realizing the risk of drafting HS pitchers. I believe there was also a quote in the book saying that if a pitcher throws 95 when he is 18 he will throw 85 when he is 21.

Now, there is a pitcher you may :) have heard of before, Danny Almonte, in the draft. Tops out in the mid 80s but supposedly knows how to pitch. He is supposed to go late in the draft. He is already committed to a JC if he doesn't get enough $. Would it make sense to take someone like him in a little earlier than expected, if available? If most hard throwing HS pitchers (as the saying goes) lose their velocity as they get older, wouldn't Almonte have a shot to be the reverse of that? And wouldn't it be worth taking a shot and giving him a year in JUCO as a draft and follow?

It reminds me of a guy you all may have heard of, CJ Nitkowski. I played with him in HS and he was a great pitcher then. Threw mid 80s but knew how to pitch. All of a sudden, he is in the mid 90s in college and goes top 10 overall to Cincy.

I only used Almonte as an example b/c I read an article about him in the paper this week and am not advocating over-drafting him. But I think it is a valid thought process. Looking at BA's pre-season top 25 college prospects this year, there are 16 pitchers. Here are where they were drafted last time they were draft eligible:

1) Miller (3)
3) Scherzer (43)
4) Bard (20)
5) Kennedy (14)
9) Morrow (40)
10) Buck (19)
11) McCulloch (18)
12) Chamberlain (ND)
13) Lincoln (28)
14) Melancon (30)
15) Hughes (16)
16) Reynolds (41)
18) Erickson (28)
22) Perez (ND)
23) Masterson (ND)
24) Daley (ND)

Now, admittedly, some of these guys (like Bard) slipped in the draft b/c of different reasons and some probably wouldn't sign after they were drafted after the 25th round anyway. But some of these guys (like Scherzer and Daley, to name 2) were in the 80s in HS and were drafted late or not at all. And since most late round draftees have little chance of panning out (excluding Todd Coffey and SuperDeno), wouldn't pitchers like this be worth a shot?

I guess my thought is that teams should be able to find a way to project who will gain velocity as they get older. You always hear scouts saying "So and so has gap power now, he will develop into a 30 HR hitter as he gets older." Where is the scout who says "So and so hits 88 on the gun, but will develop into a mid 90s pitcher in a few years"? What could the factors be? Height? Arm speed? Who knows...but if there are pitchers out there who want to get to the pros no matter where they are drafted, can't someone find them before they get to college and explode on the scene?

dougdirt
06-02-2006, 04:15 AM
Questions about his bat?- in 58 games his ObP+SLP was 1.050+
He started every game and while he Struck out 53 times in 58 games, he walked 40 times. Sounds a lot like a budding Adam Dunn to me. If he drops to the Reds, I really hope they select him.
Lots of scouts question if Stubbs will ever hit at a major league level. BJ Szymanski struck out just 28 times his junior year....he is being torn apart in single A right now... Stubbs might hit college pitchers, but the holes in his swing will come to the front when he faces professional pitchers.

IslandRed
06-02-2006, 12:40 PM
Yep. Context matters. A 1.050 OPS swinging an aluminum bat against college pitching is a very good, but not great, mark. Nearly every team I spot-checked, all major-conference schools, had a guy above 1.000.

NewEraReds
06-02-2006, 03:20 PM
Watching Joba right now on cstv. painting the outside corner at the knees with fastballs and throwing a nasty curve. 2 ks in the first. only problem ive seen is he hasnt thrown 1 pitch inside the outside corner, let alone inside ;) or change eye level. but its just been 1 inning. wish they had a gun going so i could see the velocity

NewEraReds
06-02-2006, 03:24 PM
i think they figured he wasnt gonna come in. back to back hr's to lead off the 2nd. one hanging breaking ball at the belt another fastball at the belt right over the plate

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2006, 08:35 PM
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Here are some players to watch as likely top 10 picks in the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft, which gets underway June 6.

1) ANDREW MILLER, LHP, NORTH CAROLINA

Expected to be the first Tar Heel to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick since B.J. Surhoff in 1985...He has been favored to be the first pick for the '06 draft since stepping on UNC's campus...2006 ACC Pitcher of the Year and earned first-team All-ACC honors...North Carolina's all-time strikeout leader with 290 and is fourth with 25 victories...This season he has won 11 of his 13 starts with four shutouts...Miller allowed just four extra-base hits all year (only one home run) and was 5-1 with a 1.27 ERA in six starts against nationally-ranked opponents...Against the ACC he was 8-1 with a 1.94 ERA...He works comfortably in the 93-95 range, and tops out around 99 mph...Also has a devastating slider that gives him two legitimate strikeout pitches...At times is a bit wild, but his command has improved each season...Has drawn many comparisons to Randy Johnson.

2) TIM LINCECUM, RHP, WASHINGTON

This season Lincecum broke the Huskies' single-season wins record and is the all-time strikeouts leader at Washington...As a freshman in 2004 he became the first player ever to be names Pac-10 Freshman of the Year and Pitcher of the Year. Was the first Washington player to win either award...Control has been an issue, as Lincecum uncorked 11 wild pitches and hit 10 batters...Despite his small size, Lincecum goes after hitters and tries to strike them out instead of relying on finesse...Has been compared to Roy Oswalt, but his future may lie in the bullpen as a closer.

3) BRAD LINCOLN, RHP, HOUSTON

Was an All-Star pitcher at the Cap Cod League last summer for the Bourne Braves, posting a 1.32 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 54 innings...Has carried that success from Cape Cod over into his junior season at Houston. He is 11-1 with a 1.67 ERA in 15 starts with the Cougars this year...Has 141 strikeouts and just 26 walks over 113 innings this season...Lincoln frequently throws his fastball in the 93-mph range, but has been clocked in the high-90s...Also throws an excellent curve ball and is developing a changeup...Lincoln is also used as a first baseman/designated hitter for Houston and is hitting .288 with 11 home runs and a team-high 50 RBI this season...Was selected out of high school by the Texas Rangers in the 28th round of the 2003 draft.

4) EVAN LONGORIA, 3B/2B, LONG BEACH STATE

Was named the Most Valuable Player last summer at the prestigious Cape Cod Baseball League and is expected to be the first position player selected in this year's draft...Played for Chatham in the CCBL and led the league with eight homers, 35 RBI and a .500 slugging percentage...Was listed as the third- best major league prospect to play in Cape Cod last year, falling in behind pitchers Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard...Has had an excellent junior season at Long Beach State so far, hitting .364 with nine home runs and 39 RBI...Longoria's biggest asset is his ability to hit with power to all field...Is not related to actress Eva Longoria.

5) GREG REYNOLDS, RHP, STANFORD

No player has helped himself more in recent weeks than Reynolds, who outpitched two likely top 10 selections in California's Brendan Morrow and Washington's Tim Lincecum in back-to-back May starts. A late first-round possibility heading into this season, the towering righty now could go as high as the No. 4 overall pick to Pittsburgh.

With very good command of three pitches -- a fastball that can reach the mid-90's plus a curve and change, Reynolds is considered one of the safest picks in this year's class. He is also intelligent, has good mound presence, and a solid athlete who was recruited to play quarterback by a number of Division I schools.

Reynolds was considered a possible second-round selection as a high-schooler in 2003, but his strong commitment to Stanford kept him available until the Phillies took a flyer near the end of the draft.

6) LUKE HOCHEVAR, RHP, FORT WORTH (Independent)

Right-hander Luke Hochevar had a solid 2005 campaign with the University of Tennessee and helped the Vols to the College World Series. Hochevar was slated to be the No. 1 overall pick by Arizona, but fell to the Dodgers at No. 40. His agent, Scott Boras, talked him out of his original deal signed with LA and the prospect landed with the Fort Worth Cats of the independent American Association. The Fowler, CO native, who was rated the best college pitcher in last year's draft, had his fastball clocked around 90-97 mph, while hurling a nice off-speed slider.

7) CLAYTON KERSHAW, LHP, HIGHLAND PARK HIGH SCHOOL (DALLAS, TEXAS)

Top prep player on the board...Throws consistently in the low 90s, but can get to the mid-90s when he has to...Throws the best curveball of all the Texas prep prospects...Needs to work on control...Oblique strain hurt him late in the season. However he was 10-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 104 strikeouts before the injury. After the injury tossed a truly perfect game - 15 batters, 15 strikeouts...Has committed to play for Texas A&M, but will likely land in the first round of draft.

8) DREW STUBBS, OF, TEXAS

Helped Texas win the 2005 College World Series Championship by hitting .311 with 11 homers and 46 RBI...Was also a member of the USA National Team that earned a gold medal at the 2004 FISU World University Championships in Taipei, Taiwan...Is a five-tool player and is widely considered to be the best athlete in college baseball...Is enjoying an excellent junior season at Texas with a .337 batting average, 11 home runs, 48 RBI and 21 stolen bases...Stubbs was selected out of high school by the Houston Astros in the 2003 draft.

9) BRANDON MORROW, RHP, CALIFORNIA

With one start remaining Morrow was 7-3 as a starter with a 1.74 ERA for Cal this past season...Dominated the Cape Cod League last summer, as his fastball regularly approached the high-90s...Pitched to a 6.07 ERA as a freshman and a 9.36 ERA as a sophomore...Complements his fastball with a wicked split- fingered fastball which may be the single best trick-pitch of anyone available for the 2006 draft...The fastball-split finger combo could make him a potentially dominant closer one day...Was drafted in the 40th round by the Anaheim Angles in the 2003 Major League Amateur Draft...Controls his Type 1 diabetes with an insulin pump.

10) DANIEL BARD, RHP, NORTH CAROLINA

Bard played an instrumental role in North Carolina's Coastal Division title and will be an even bigger piece of the puzzle in the upcoming ACC Tournament...In his last start on May 20 against Boston College, Bard hurled seven innings of one-run ball for the win, while allowing five hits with two walks and four K's...Bard, who played in the shadows of UNC ace Andrew Miller, compiled a 7-3 record this season with a 3.53 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) and 79 innings...He also notched a pair of complete games...A member of team USA, Bard will most likely be a No. 1 or No. 2 pitcher in the majors...He does not have a Roger Clemens-type fastball, but the mechanics to go the distance and fool batters with junk.

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/scorecard/mlbnews.asp?articleID=103289

jmcclain19
06-03-2006, 11:27 PM
I am now officially ready for the Draft.

I took the day off work (All I do on draft day is surf the net anyway, I might as well be honest about it) and got it approved yesterday. Got my Baseball America Draft Preview in the mail this afternoon, I picked up some Frozen Pizzas for Tuesday at the store - Bring on Draft day.

Gallen5862
06-03-2006, 11:46 PM
I will be at home for draft day as well trying to listen to it on the internet and chatting in the draft thread.

dougdirt
06-03-2006, 11:49 PM
This year will be my second year of following the draft live the day of. However it is my first year where I have taken in a lot of information on the players. I secretly have a guy I hope the Reds take in the first round, but I will keep it to myself.

edabbs44
06-03-2006, 11:56 PM
This year will be my second year of following the draft live the day of. However it is my first year where I have taken in a lot of information on the players. I secretly have a guy I hope the Reds take in the first round, but I will keep it to myself.
What a tease. :)

dougdirt
06-04-2006, 12:04 AM
Oh I know, but I think everyone here will tar and feather me for it, so its staying with me until the day of the draft, when then I can hope people are following the draft too much to worry about getting the tar long enough for me to run and hide.

NewEraReds
06-04-2006, 12:10 AM
Oh I know, but I think everyone here will tar and feather me for it, so its staying with me until the day of the draft, when then I can hope people are following the draft too much to worry about getting the tar long enough for me to run and hide.
ill bring it out, especially if we pick the guy ;)

NewEraReds
06-04-2006, 12:11 AM
i have been working with a top 10, will knock it down to 5 tom and 2 or 3 on monday, stay tuned ;)

Outshined_One
06-04-2006, 01:49 AM
Just heard from one of my sources in Wisconsin that the Reds are high on HS lefty Anthony Butler. Apparently he's been hitting 95 on the gun, but has a strong commitment to Arkansas and his delivery is cause for concern since it requires some effort and strain on his shoulders.

edabbs44
06-04-2006, 01:53 AM
Just heard from one of my sources in Wisconsin that the Reds are high on HS lefty Anthony Butler. Apparently he's been hitting 95 on the gun, but has a strong commitment to Arkansas and his delivery is cause for concern since it requires some effort and strain on his shoulders.
How high? He isn't even in BA's top 200.

NewEraReds
06-04-2006, 02:04 AM
How high? He isn't even in BA's top 200.
he may not be in ba's top 200 cause they believe he is a lock to go to college. or maybe he just came on recently. who knows, but i dont like what i read in that one paragraph about him

NewEraReds
06-04-2006, 02:05 AM
Just heard from one of my sources in Wisconsin that the Reds are high on HS lefty Anthony Butler. Apparently he's been hitting 95 on the gun, but has a strong commitment to Arkansas and his delivery is cause for concern since it requires some effort and strain on his shoulders.
wow, must be really bad to cause strain on his right shoulder too:D

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2006, 02:07 AM
I think outshined may be trying to make a joke because his description of Butler sounds exactly like Travis Wood from last year, including the strong commitment to Arkansas part.

Outshined_One
06-04-2006, 02:09 AM
How high? He isn't even in BA's top 200.

Brewerfan (http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewAmateurPlayerProfile.do?playerId=611&draftId=4) has him at #121. BA said that he works in the high 80s and touches 90 on occasion, but my friend who saw him said he was hitting 95 on some scouts' guns in the 5th inning. He had 19 Ks in that game, by the way.

He'll probably go between rounds 5-10, but if his stock continues to rise, he might be taken higher than that. Depends on how strong his commitment is.

Outshined_One
06-04-2006, 02:10 AM
wow, must be really bad to cause strain on his right shoulder too:D

Funny. ;) I just meant his left shoulder.

jmcclain19
06-04-2006, 02:29 AM
last year I listened in at home using XM Radio - which has continuing coverage of the confernce call all day both days.

If you have XM, I found it to be much more reliable and easy to use over the MLB.com feed.

jmcclain19
06-04-2006, 02:30 AM
Oh I know, but I think everyone here will tar and feather me for it, so its staying with me until the day of the draft, when then I can hope people are following the draft too much to worry about getting the tar long enough for me to run and hide.

We'll see if the Reds pony up and pick C_______ K_______ and make you happy ;)

dougdirt
06-04-2006, 02:34 AM
We'll see if the Reds pony up and pick C_______ K_______ and make you happy ;)

Nope. He wont be on the board when the Reds pick anyways. He will go to 1 of the 2 teams right before the Reds. The guy I would like to see, would probably be "over drafted" at #8....of course, what is overdrafting on draft day when in 5 years he might be the best player out of the draft?

dougdirt
06-04-2006, 02:35 AM
In reality though, as long as the Reds arent taking Drew Stubbs, I wont be disappointed.