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View Full Version : D Ross the unherald Krivsky aquisition?



The_jbh
05-07-2006, 05:29 PM
Phillips and Arroyo have gotten a lot of praise but Ross was one of those questionable at the time aquisitions and he is now my favorite catcher on the team. I'd like to see LaRue dealt for a reliever and Ross and Javy rotate.

Not only does Arroyo say he is the catcher hes most comfortable in his whole career. I think he is the only above average defensive catcher on this team and he handles the staff real well. He calls great games. we've seen Jason and Javy blow plays at the plate like Kearns' throw last night plenty of time the past few years. By the way hes hitting .258 with a 351 OBP and has 3 HRs in 31 at bats

DunnFan44
05-07-2006, 06:20 PM
Ross is a lifetime .220 hitter. I dont think that is by mistake. No doubt he is a better defensive catcher. But Valentine hits the ball better. Dont get me wrong Larue has been a steady presence behind the plate. But the Reds have not had a good catcher in years.

TC81190
05-07-2006, 06:44 PM
But the Reds have not had a good catcher in years.

2005 LaRue and Valentin? LaRue has always been a good offensive catcher.

MWM
05-07-2006, 07:13 PM
Jaon Larue has been one of the better catchers in the league for over 5 years now. We've been lucky to have him.

redsfanmia
05-07-2006, 09:30 PM
Jaon Larue has been one of the better catchers in the league for over 5 years now. We've been lucky to have him.
But now we would be lucky to be rid of him and his overpriced contract, thanks DanO.

DunnFan44
05-07-2006, 09:53 PM
Jason Larue
Pro Service: in his 8th season.
Lifetime AVG .243
OBP .314
SLG .420
HRS 77
RBIS 286

Reasonable stats besides the OBP, average could be a tad higher, but he does have a good arm and he calls a good game.

And yes he is overpriced...!!!:)

The_jbh
05-07-2006, 10:09 PM
I'm way more worried about handling the pitching staffand defense when it comes to our catcher. Ross said it best today, when he was talking about how he didnt care if he went 0-4 as long as he calls a good game and they get the W.

captainmorgan07
05-07-2006, 10:15 PM
i've always liked david ross he played well in pittsburgh when he was there and everywhere he's been good defensive catch he and arroyo have worked well together the 3 catcher combo might have to be broken up

TOBTTReds
05-08-2006, 12:21 AM
and he calls a good game.


I tend to disagree. I think he calls an awful game. There are some pitches that you would think he is clueless. As far as his defensive skills, he has a great arm, and makes good plays in front of the plate. I think he is a below average receiver and continually loses strikes for our pitchers with his inability to catch some pitches. I'll go look for it now, but I believe our pitchers ERA's are worse with him in there in the last couple years.

KronoRed
05-08-2006, 12:33 AM
plate. But the Reds have not had a good catcher in years.
By what standerd? Johnny Bench? well then I think we're going to be waiting awhile.

I like Ross as a 2nd catcher 1-2 starts a week, trade Valentin.

TOBTTReds
05-08-2006, 12:39 AM
By what standerd? Johnny Bench? well then I think we're going to be waiting awhile.

I like Ross as a 2nd catcher 1-2 starts a week, trade Valentin.

I agree with trading one of the two (LaRue or Val), but I'm afraid with this 3-headed monster, they have both lost major trade value. At times Larue has been the 3rd string it seems just bc of matchups. I think we missed out on trading LaRue once we got Ross.

Patrick Bateman
05-08-2006, 02:00 AM
And yes he is overpriced...!!!:)

LaRue is an absolute bargain IMO.

Look at the contracts of the other catchers with new contracts:

Ramon Hernandez 4 years, 28M
Bengie Molina 1 year, 5M
Mike Matheny 3 year, 15M
Brad Ausmus 2 year, 8M


LaRue has a 2 year 8M contract, and I would take him over all of those players. His stats may not blow you away, but for the most part catchers don't hit. If you can find a catcher who can OPS around 750, you are doing great.

He is anything except for overpaid. One of the things DanO actually did right.

tripleaaaron
05-08-2006, 02:01 AM
i've always liked david ross he played well in pittsburgh when he was there and everywhere he's been good defensive catch he and arroyo have worked well together the 3 catcher combo might have to be broken up
Exactly, with the offense we already have, and with everyone wanting an improvement to our pitching staff, wouldn't it make sense to have the best game-calling catcher in the game, our ballpark creates enough of a "head-case syndrome", so why have a catcher out their who is only going to add to the pitchers woes. Dave Ross calls a fantastic game and is a "field general", our defense is bad enough and the catcher position is quite possibly the most important defensive position, unless you have a rotation full of aces who will pitch great no matter, and although our rotation is much improved, we dont have that luxury, Arroyo has been awesome, and harang great at times as well, but we still dont have a true ace.
Defense wins championships. Reducing the runs scored by the other team would greatly outweigh the offensive production of the catcher position.

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 02:28 AM
Jason Larue
Pro Service: in his 8th season.
Lifetime AVG .243
OBP .314
SLG .420
HRS 77
RBIS 286

Reasonable stats besides the OBP, average could be a tad higher, but he does have a good arm and he calls a good game.

And yes he is overpriced...!!!:)

He calls a good game!? What good games has he called on the WORST performing pitching staff in the NL over the last several years? His game calling is the major thing about his game that's been in question...I say he's way overpriced and the Reds could probably get a good reliever for him, which they should do yesterday...

Also Ross is 29--who he is as a hitter will be defined in the next couple years--I wouldn't write him off as an all-glove-no-stick catcher yet...

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 02:39 AM
LaRue is an absolute bargain IMO.

Look at the contracts of the other catchers with new contracts:

Ramon Hernandez 4 years, 28M
Bengie Molina 1 year, 5M
Mike Matheny 3 year, 15M
Brad Ausmus 2 year, 8M


LaRue has a 2 year 8M contract, and I would take him over all of those players. His stats may not blow you away, but for the most part catchers don't hit. If you can find a catcher who can OPS around 750, you are doing great.

He is anything except for overpaid. One of the things DanO actually did right.

Nope--OPS meaningless here. Your catcher is the captain of your pitching staff, and how he handles them has far reaching implications on the success of your team--much more than how he hits in the 8-hole. Preferring LaRue to the catchers you mentioned for OPS, and that on a team packed with big sticks, is severely misguided thinking IMO...

Patrick Bateman
05-08-2006, 03:23 AM
Nope--OPS meaningless here. Your catcher is the captain of your pitching staff, and how he handles them has far reaching implications on the success of your team--much more than how he hits in the 8-hole. Preferring LaRue to the catchers you mentioned for OPS, and that on a team packed with big sticks, is severely misguided thinking IMO...

Other than your opinion, do you have any actual facts to back up your point that those catchers are better than LaRue in those areas?

Dunner44
05-08-2006, 11:05 AM
Other than your opinion, do you have any actual facts to back up your point that those catchers are better than LaRue in those areas?

I agree that D Ross is a better game caller... I'll go look at ERAs with each catcher after I get back from my exam... I can even discount the last few starts for Bronson if you want, and just look at the early season numbers when Ross caught for other pitchers.... to be continued sometime around 12:30

ochre
05-08-2006, 11:15 AM
Some time pitchers are just bad.

westofyou
05-08-2006, 11:26 AM
What good games has he called on the WORST performing pitching staff in the NL over the last several years? Johnny Bench couldn't fix those staffs.

Blaming LaRue for the pitching the past few years is severely misguided thinking.

It's akin to blaming your skin for getting burnt by the sun.

traderumor
05-08-2006, 11:38 AM
Johnny Bench couldn't fix those staffs.

Blaming LaRue for the pitching the past few years is severely misguided thinking.

It's akin to blaming your skin for getting burnt by the sun.I'll add that catcher's "ERA" is about as meaningful a stat as BA with RISP.

Further, how a game gets called from a pitching standpoint is a team effort between scouts, the manager, the pitching coach, the catcher and the pitchers. If you watch carefully, pitchers primarily give up hard hit balls when they do not hit their spots. Rarely do you see a catcher call for fastball down the middle of the plate, yet those are the types of pitches our boys have been delivering over Jason's career. That is why bad pitchers are bad pitchers and good pitchers are good pitchers.

Regardless, there is always plenty of credit to spread around for a well-pitched game and plenty of blame to pass out in a poorly pitched game.

Dunner44
05-08-2006, 01:45 PM
Okay, so I started looking at past games, and the starter's ERA with Ross vs. Javy. Anything after 4/19 when LaRue came back would have to be thrown out, because after that the catchers become specialized to each pitcher.

However, I found as I was looking back that they were specialized early in the year as well. Narron didn't play righty/lefty matchups with ther catchers, but rather had them going based on who was pitching. Javy did AH, DW and BC and Ross has BA and Milton. So you can't really tell anything from the stats because the pitchers are a confounding factor.

Because of that, it comes down to opinion. I like the way Ross calls the game, and he has recieved many compliments from the pitchers he has caught for. No one else on the staff has said things about Javy or LaRue in regards to their game calling.... I'll let y'all decide, however.


I'd like to add, that I like Narron's decision to play catcher with pitcher, and not with their bat matchups. I think its important the pitcher and catcher develop a good rapport and the only way to do that is to have them play together consistently. Play matchups with pinch hitters, but not with who the pitcher is throwing to.

TeamBoone
05-08-2006, 01:51 PM
How about last year? Just Valentin and LaRue.

Dunner44
05-08-2006, 02:56 PM
How about last year? Just Valentin and LaRue.

Ok, here are the numbers. Turns out ESPN tracks catcher's ERA as a fielding stat.

For 2006, here are the numbers so far:
Ross: 3.95
LaRue: 4.54
Javier: 4.71
2006 Catcher's ERA (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlbhist/stats/fielding?seasonType=2&sortOrder=true&split=78&groupId=8&season=2006&qualified=0&sortColumn=catcherERA)

For 2005, here are the season numbers:
Ross (split time between Pitt and SD): 4.14
Javier: 4.92
LaRue: 5.26
Just for reference, I'll throw in Kelly Stinnett in as well (haven't heard his name in a while). He finished slightly worse than LaRue at 5.33.
Dane also had one start in the bigs, went 8 innings and had a fat 7.78 CERA, highest ESPN had listed for 2005. But small sample size and all... probably a Milton start :evil:
2005 Catcher's ERA (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?seasonType=2&sortOrder=true&split=78&groupId=8&season=2005&qualified=0&sortColumn=catcherERA)

2006 stats you have to take w/ a grain of salt because of pitcher selectivity... that can skew numbers to the pitcher's performance. 2005, Ross clearly looks better, but this could also be because he is working with better pitchers in SD and Pitt. If LaRue or Javy gets traded, then we will be best able to see the difference, but it sure looks like Ross is the better game caller at the moment. LaRue's 5.26 last year is astronomically high, but he also caught for Eric Milton, so what are you going to do?

DoogMinAmo
05-08-2006, 03:20 PM
Johnny Bench couldn't fix those staffs.

Blaming LaRue for the pitching the past few years is severely misguided thinking.

It's akin to blaming your skin for getting burnt by the sun.
So blame the sun instead? :evil:

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 07:26 PM
Other than your opinion, do you have any actual facts to back up your point that those catchers are better than LaRue in those areas?
Yes. The results of the pitching staffs they've handled.

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 07:39 PM
Johnny Bench couldn't fix those staffs.

Blaming LaRue for the pitching the past few years is severely misguided thinking.

It's akin to blaming your skin for getting burnt by the sun.

I'm not blaming LaRue in total for the pitching. Game calling does have an effect on a pitchers performance, and LaRue's game calling ain't great. What stats can I give you for that other than ERA when he's catching? Or WHIP when he's catching? He's been the worst the Reds have had in years. Do you want an individual instance(s) where I've seen him make a terrible pitch call?Oh, and, Bench would have done better with those staffs. Why isn't LaRue catching Arroyo? Caprice on Narron's part? Just cause Ross likes Brandon's music? Arroyo knows where he's gonna get the better game.

Patrick Bateman
05-08-2006, 08:02 PM
Yes. The results of the pitching staffs they've handled.

That stat is incredibly flawed IMO. It does not take into account how well the pitcher is throwing. All it counts is the runs against which relies completely on the pitcher.

If the pitcher doesn't like the call, he shakes him off. It's really the pitcher's decision on what he's throwing for the most part. Catchers and pitchers practise together all the time so they know what pitches the pitcher likes. The catcher has little control over how the game is really going to be called.

Blaming LaRue for horrible picthers is completely unfair. Unless I see statistics that actually prove that LaRue has had a detriment on the pitching staff, I'm going to assume he's doing just fine. If you want to look at a catcher's worth, hitting is one of the biggest factors, and using OPS is not flawed. Other things to look at are his fielding and the ability to throw out baserunners. LaRue is acceptable at both.

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 08:10 PM
That stat is incredibly flawed IMO. It does not take into account how well the pitcher is throwing. All it counts is the runs against which relies completely on the pitcher.

If the pitcher doesn't like the call, he shakes him off. It's really the pitcher's decision on what he's throwing for the most part. Catchers and pitchers practise together all the time so they know what pitches the pitcher likes. The catcher has little control over how the game is really going to be called.

Blaming LaRue for horrible picthers is completely unfair. Unless I see statistics that actually prove that LaRue has had a detriment on the pitching staff, I'm going to assume he's doing just fine. If you want to look at a catcher's worth, hitting is one of the biggest factors, and using OPS is not flawed. Other things to look at are his fielding and the ability to throw out baserunners. LaRue is acceptable at both.

This kind of a response is a beautiful example of one of the weaknesses of statistical analysis; this poster would never acquire a catcher for his ability to handle pitching staffs because he can't find an acceptable stat for it. His team would be weakened by this.

Dunner44
05-08-2006, 08:11 PM
That stat is incredibly flawed IMO. It does not take into account how well the pitcher is throwing. All it counts is the runs against which relies completely on the pitcher.

If the pitcher doesn't like the call, he shakes him off. It's really the pitcher's decision on what he's throwing for the most part. Catchers and pitchers practise together all the time so they know what pitches the pitcher likes. The catcher has little control over how the game is really going to be called.

Blaming LaRue for horrible picthers is completely unfair. Unless I see statistics that actually prove that LaRue has had a detriment on the pitching staff, I'm going to assume he's doing just fine. If you want to look at a catcher's worth, hitting is one of the biggest factors, and using OPS is not flawed. Other things to look at are his fielding and the ability to throw out baserunners. LaRue is acceptable at both.


I posted this higher up.... Look at the CERAs for LaRue and Javy last year. Yes, we had the worst ERA in the majors last year, but the difference between Javy and LaRue for last year is almost 40 points.... Yes it is somewhat dependant on the pitchers but with a large enough sample some of that washes out. This year, not so much, but last year Javy and Jason were used as situational batters for their starts, not matched with pitchers, so you can see the difference each makes. You also have the bullpen, which contributes to diversifying the sample...

LaRue is not a very good game caller, plain and simple. I agree part of the stat is the pitchers, but all the same, some of the stat rests on him!

DunnFan44
05-08-2006, 08:30 PM
Maybe I was carried away with stating Larue calls a good game. He is average at best with that. Also please take in fact that he is a slow starter with the Bat. His numbers seem to be higher after the all-star break.
"Boy this turned into a long thread".

UKFlounder
05-08-2006, 08:49 PM
Do catchers really call games now, or does the dugout control that?

westofyou
05-08-2006, 09:19 PM
What stats can I give you for that other than ERA when he's catching? Or WHIP when he's catching? He's been the worst the Reds have had in years.None, it's really something you'd have to ask the pitchers about... that said you pimped Ed Baily the other day in a 56 Reds thread, he's been slammed for being a bully to the young guys and a 50's version of Eddie Taubensee.

Whom BTW says 'ello on your assertion that LARue has been the worst catcher for the Reds in some time.

Personally IMO LaRue is the best catcher the Reds have had since Bench.

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 09:20 PM
On the Reds, the catcher calls the game.

Wheelhouse
05-08-2006, 09:24 PM
Didn't know anything about Bailey w/pitchers. That post really came from how surprised I was that the '56 Reds were that good with the stick. I don't know anything about the 1950's Reds, and had no "pimping" in mind.

ochre
05-08-2006, 09:38 PM
This kind of a response is a beautiful example of one of the weaknesses of statistical analysis; this poster would never acquire a catcher for his ability to handle pitching staffs because he can't find an acceptable stat for it. His team would be weakened by this.
who do you think is providing the scouting reports on how to pitch to these hitters? I can pretty well guarantee it's not one of the catchers. So, assuming the manager would address it if the catcher wasn't working to the scouting report in his call of the game, it would seem that it's either the pitcher's execution, or poor scouting reports that have a larger impact on cera than the catcher.

kyred14
05-08-2006, 09:46 PM
This thread is flat halirious. We are blaming Jason Larue for Ramon Ortiz, Eric Milton, and Dave Williams? Think about that.

Dunner44
05-08-2006, 09:53 PM
This thread is flat halirious. We are blaming Jason Larue for Ramon Ortiz, Eric Milton, and Dave Williams? Think about that.

Look at the difference between Javy and LaRue in CERA last year. As previously stated, last year they were not pitcher specific, the were used as left or right handed hitters to play matchups. LaRue's is almost 40 points higher with the same pitching staff than Javy's CERA. Thats what you need to look at...

ochre
05-08-2006, 10:24 PM
Look at the difference between Javy and LaRue in CERA last year. As previously stated, last year they were not pitcher specific, the were used as left or right handed hitters to play matchups. LaRue's is almost 40 points higher with the same pitching staff than Javy's CERA. Thats what you need to look at...
that's ~7% higher by the way. What's the margin of error?

Dunner44
05-08-2006, 11:38 PM
Catcher ERA is just the ERA of the pitching staff when a catcher is behind the plate. As for the margin of error, I don't know.

Patrick Bateman
05-09-2006, 12:43 AM
This kind of a response is a beautiful example of one of the weaknesses of statistical analysis; this poster would never acquire a catcher for his ability to handle pitching staffs because he can't find an acceptable stat for it. His team would be weakened by this.

Okay let's use your analysis instead of my "flawed" statistical analysis:

OPS doesn't matter for catchers.
Only fielding/game calling is apparently important.

I know the man for the job. Lets get Dane Sardinha to start. His low OPS wont matter because of his great fielding attributes and ability to call a game.

The fact I don't think there is an acceptable stat for the catcher's ability to handle a pitching staff is not the reason I wouldn't acquire a catcher with that ability. The reason is I don't believe there is a noticable skill in calling a game.

You can show me the catcher's ERA when different catcher's start, but I think that's irrelevant. The pitcher is still throwing the ball. The catcher is not solely responsible for calling the game. Starters and catchers look over the scouting reports and develop a game plan together to decide on how to call a game. They don't just wing it.

If you acquired a catcher based on their strengths of handling a pitching staff, your team would be hugely weakened and would likely be left with a no-hit catcher because you were mislead on some skill they had that is non-existent IMO. Why blame LaRue when you can blame the picthers? After all they are the ones throwing the pitches.

Patrick Bateman
05-09-2006, 12:46 AM
Look at the difference between Javy and LaRue in CERA last year. As previously stated, last year they were not pitcher specific, the were used as left or right handed hitters to play matchups. LaRue's is almost 40 points higher with the same pitching staff than Javy's CERA. Thats what you need to look at...

The stat tells nothing. It doesn't distinguish who was throwing the ball.

For all we know Milton, Ortiz, and Hudson were all LaRue's pitchers, while Valentin was catching for Harang/Claussen or vice versa.

Or perhaps the picthers simply picthed better for Valentin simply out of luck and a higher BAPIP when LaRue was catching. There are too many flaws in the statistic to make it valid in proving whether the catchers have the skill of calling a game.

ochre
05-09-2006, 12:53 AM
Larue caught roughly 80% more innings than Valentin, yet you contend their pitcher draw was ostensibly random. On a crappy staff like the Reds, the pitching volatility would tend to penalize the catcher with significantly more 'opportunities'.

Even in your espn fielding stats link, there are only two national league catchers between Larue and Valentin in cera, one with 262 innings, the other with 11. The 34 point difference is fairly insignificant, and closer to 30 than the 40 you cited. Check out the difference between Henry Blanco (3.58 in 422 inn) and Michael Barrett (4.45 in 1018 inn).

Basically, the problem with cera is that there are still too many loose end variables that can not be directly pinned on the catcher. The veracity of scouting reports and pitchers that can actually accomplish said pitching effectively being the two big ones.

TeamBoone
05-09-2006, 12:58 AM
I think the main reason LaRue isn't catching Arroyo is because he started with Ross in ST... and then LaRue got hurt so the opportunity never presented itself. By the time LaRue got back in the game, Ross was who he was comfortable with.

I don't think LaRue has EVER caught for Arroyo, has he?

Dunner44
05-09-2006, 01:37 AM
Larue caught roughly 80% more innings than Valentin, yet you contend their pitcher draw was ostensibly random. On a crappy staff like the Reds, the pitching volatility would tend to penalize the catcher with significantly more 'opportunities'.

Even in your espn fielding stats link, there are only two national league catchers between Larue and Valentin in cera, one with 262 innings, the other with 11. The 34 point difference is fairly insignificant, and closer to 30 than the 40 you cited. Check out the difference between Henry Blanco (3.58 in 422 inn) and Michael Barrett (4.45 in 1018 inn).

Basically, the problem with cera is that there are still too many loose end variables that can not be directly pinned on the catcher. The veracity of scouting reports and pitchers that can actually accomplish said pitching effectively being the two big ones.

All valid points. Just proving that stats by themselves are worthless unless you unpackage them. I should have known better. So, no, CERA is not going to tell you by itself who is better at calling games. It is merely one tool. Another tool is reports from pitchers, scouts and managers. Kriv said he likes how Ross catches, and he has excellent defense. While having a light hiting catcher does weaken your offense by nearly eliminating production from the 8 AND 9 holes, if they do a good job with the pitching staff, the catcher will stay on, ala Brad Asmus who in the past tow years has had OPS of .631 and .682. Yes it hurts the offense, but it also helps the defense. And with an offense as potent as the Reds, and with the pitchers hitting well, I would be fine with taking a defensive oriented catcher.

remdog
05-09-2006, 06:19 AM
Ross better be a very good defensive catcher 'cause with lifetime numbers such as a .219 BA, a .292 OBA and a .711 OPS he's closing in on Dane Sardinha territiory. The saving grace in that comparison is that, at $500k he's not much more expensive than Dane.

Rem

danwl
05-09-2006, 04:25 PM
I think everybody would agree that the catcher has some impact on a pitcher's performance. Clearly any of the three would be better for a pitcher than I would, for example. But, the point is that it is difficult to quantify. Catcher ERA might be one measure and is probably relevant, but it is a fair point that 7% difference could be margin of error, could be catching Milton one more game. :)

But just because we don't have an accurate metric doesn't mean that the effect is not there. One suggestion made in this thread was that we'd have to ask the pitchers; again, an important input, perhaps not definitive either, but still important. One way to get to that information is to look at Narron's use of the three catchers with his staff.

To me, Narron's decision to use only Ross to catch Arroyo and then Valentin to catch Lizard, LaRue to catch everybody else says something. Why is that? Is it a language issue with Valentin/Lizard? I don't buy that Arroyo just "got comfortable" with Ross in spring training, so Ross catches him. Must be some reason. But if Ross is good for Arroyo, why not for the rest of the staff? It could just be random; they just hit it off, I suppose. Seems at least equally likely that Arroyo has a reputation of being uneven, stellar and horrible starts, so Narron is trying to use his best "handler" with Arroyo to even him out, even at the expense (in theory) of offensive production.