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Guacarock
05-08-2006, 05:34 AM
We've now played 32 games, one-fifth of this summer's schedule. Here are the team leaders for major offense and pitching categories, along with their extrapolated seasonal projections should these players continue to perform at the same clip.

Please comment on who you're surprised to see here and who you think has the best chances to maintain their current levels of production.

OFFENSE
Hits: Kearns, 39 (195); Lopez, 37 (185); Dunn, 32 (160)
Runs: Dunn, 29 (145); Lopez, 23 (115); Kearns, 22 (110)
RBI: Encarnacion, 26 (130); Dunn, 24 (120); Phillips, 23 (115)
Doubles: Kearns, 11 (55); Encarnacion, 11 (55), four players tied with 6 apiece.
Triples: Three players (Encarnacion, Valentin, Milton!) tied with 1 apiece.
Home Runs: Dunn, 12 (60); Kearns, 6 (30); Aurilia and Encarnacion, 5 (25)
Stolen Bases: Lopez, 11 (55); Freel, 8 (40); Phillips, 5 (25)
BBs: Dunn, 29 (145); Freel, 20 (100); Hatteberg, 17 (85)

PITCHING
Innings Pitched: Arroyo, 49.2 (248.1); Harang, 47.2 (238.1), Claussen, 32 (160)
Games Started: Arroyo and Harang, 7 (35); Claussen and Williams, 6 (30)
Games Pitched: Coffey and Weathers, 15 (75); White, 13 (65); Mercker, 11 (55)
Wins: Arroyo and Harang, 5 (25), 4 pitchers tied with 2 wins apiece.
Saves: Weathers, 9 (45), Mercker and White, 1 (5)
Holds: Coffey, 7 (35), Mercker, 3 (15)
Strikeouts: Harang, 45 (225); Arroyo, 35 (175); Claussen, 25 (125)

Highlifeman21
05-08-2006, 09:03 AM
Surprises:

Hits - Kearns... I'd say he cools off to around 175 by end of year

RBI - EE... I think he'll break 100, but it'll be close

SB - Lopez... he doesn't have the speed to be a legitimate basestealer... so far, IMO, he's swiped bags off smart leads and jumps, not off overall speed

Wins - Arroyo and Harang... I only see either of them in the 15-18 range, but not over 20.

Saves - Weathers... I don't see him over 40, the bullpen is bound to blow up and give up leads

Best chances to maintain

Hits - Lopez... he's a batman, not a glove man, take what you get from him

Runs - Kearns... he's easily a 100 run guy... I'd like to see the other two maintain, but realistically I don't see it happening over the long haul

RBI - Dunn... pretty easy here

HR - Kearns will probably maintain, but Dunn will also put up big numbers. He won't put up 60, but he should easily be in the 40s with his current pace

SB - Freel... he's our only legitimate SB threat with baserunning smarts and speed

BB - Dunn will be over 100 walks, If the Pickin Machine keeps getting PAs, then he'll continue to walk as well

IP - Arroyo and Harang are both 200 IP guys, but I don't know that I'd put them much over 225

K - While I'd love to see Harang and Arroyo continue to fan batters, I think Harang will fall below 200 but have continued success... Arroyo should maintain

TeamBoone
05-08-2006, 12:14 PM
Thanks for putting all that together... but please add CGs... the Reds don't usually have two so early in the season. Heck, I'm not sure if they have had two in one season in recent years!

Big Klu
05-08-2006, 02:00 PM
Thanks for putting all that together... but please add CGs... the Reds don't usually have two so early in the season. Heck, I'm not sure if they have had two in one season in recent years!

Complete games in the last 20 years (ShO denotes shutout):

2006 (2):
Aaron Harang (ShO), Bronson Arroyo

2005 (2):
Aaron Harang, Ramon Ortiz

2004 (5):
Cory Lidle 3 (1 ShO), Aaron Harang (ShO), Paul Wilson

2003 (4):
Danny Graves 2 (1 ShO), Jose Acevedo, Jimmy Haynes

2002 (2):
Chris Reitsma (ShO), Ryan Dempster

2001 (2):
Elmer Dessens (ShO), Lance Davis

2000 (8):
Pete Harnisch 3 (1 ShO), Ron Villone 2, Rob Bell, Elmer Dessens, Osvaldo Fernandez

1999 (6):
Pete Harnisch 2 (2 ShO), Steve Parris 2 (1 ShO), Juan Guzman, Brett Tomko

1998 (6):
Pete Harnisch 2 (1 ShO), Steve Parris (ShO), Mike Remlinger (ShO), Brett Tomko, Scott Winchester

1997 (5):
Dave Burba 2, Mike Remlinger 2, Mike Morgan

1996 (6):
John Smiley 2 (2 ShO), Kevin Jarvis 2 (1 ShO), Mark Portugal (ShO), Roger Salkeld (ShO)

1995 (8):
David Wells 3, Pete Schourek 2, Dave Burba (ShO), Kevin Jarvis (ShO), John Smiley

1994 (6):
Tom Browning 2 (1 ShO), Jose Rijo 2, John Smiley (ShO), Tim Pugh

1993 (11):
Tim Belcher 4 (2 ShO), Tim Pugh 3 (1 ShO), Jose Rijo 2 (1 ShO), John Smiley 2

1992 (9):
Greg Swindell 5 (3 ShO), Tim Belcher 2 (1 ShO), Jose Rijo 2

1991 (7):
Jose Rijo 3 (1 ShO), Jack Armstrong, Tom Browning, Kip Gross, Randy Myers

1990 (14):
Jose Rijo 7 (1 ShO), Jack Armstrong 2 (1 ShO), Tom Browning 2 (1 ShO), Rick Mahler 2 (1 ShO), Norm Charlton (ShO)

1989 (16):
Tom Browning 9 (2 ShO), Rick Mahler 5 (2 ShO), Jose Rijo (ShO), Danny Jackson

1988 (24):
Danny Jackson 15 (6 ShO), Tom Browning 5 (2 ShO*), Mario Soto 3 (1 ShO), Dennis Rasmussen (ShO)
*includes perfect game

1987 (7):
Bill Gullickson 3 (1 ShO), Ted Power 2 (1 ShO), Tom Browning 2

TeamBoone
05-08-2006, 03:22 PM
Ooops! My bad.

Why did I think they were so deficient in complete games?

Guacarock
05-18-2006, 05:35 AM
We've now played 32 games, one-fifth of this summer's schedule. Here are the team leaders for major offense and pitching categories, along with their extrapolated seasonal projections should these players continue to perform at the same clip.

Please comment on who you're surprised to see here and who you think has the best chances to maintain their current levels of production.

OFFENSE
Hits: Kearns, 39 (195); Lopez, 37 (185); Dunn, 32 (160)
Runs: Dunn, 29 (145); Lopez, 23 (115); Kearns, 22 (110)
RBI: Encarnacion, 26 (130); Dunn, 24 (120); Phillips, 23 (115)
Doubles: Kearns, 11 (55); Encarnacion, 11 (55), four players tied with 6 apiece.
Triples: Three players (Encarnacion, Valentin, Milton!) tied with 1 apiece.
Home Runs: Dunn, 12 (60); Kearns, 6 (30); Aurilia and Encarnacion, 5 (25)
Stolen Bases: Lopez, 11 (55); Freel, 8 (40); Phillips, 5 (25)
BBs: Dunn, 29 (145); Freel, 20 (100); Hatteberg, 17 (85)

PITCHING
Innings Pitched: Arroyo, 49.2 (248.1); Harang, 47.2 (238.1), Claussen, 32 (160)
Games Started: Arroyo and Harang, 7 (35); Claussen and Williams, 6 (30)
Games Pitched: Coffey and Weathers, 15 (75); White, 13 (65); Mercker, 11 (55)
Wins: Arroyo and Harang, 5 (25), 4 pitchers tied with 2 wins apiece.
Saves: Weathers, 9 (45), Mercker and White, 1 (5)
Holds: Coffey, 7 (35), Mercker, 3 (15)
Strikeouts: Harang, 45 (225); Arroyo, 35 (175); Claussen, 25 (125)

Now, we're up to 40 games, or one-fourth of the schedule. The sample size is starting to get significant enough to be meaningful, and to separate the men from the boys. Since my last report, Lopez has turned on the juice, the rest of the offense has stumbled. Arroyo and Harang are hanging strong, while the bullpen, minus Coffey, is imploding. Here's the revised leader board at the one-quarter milepost, along with projections for each player assuming they perform for the balance of the season up to the same levels they have to date.

OFFENSE
Hits: Lopez, 51 (204); Kearns, 45 (180); Encarnacion, 37 (148)
Runs: Dunn, 31 (124); Lopez, 30 (120); Kearns, 25 (100)
RBI: Encarnacion, 28 (112); Kearns and Dunn, 26 (104)
Doubles: Kearns, 12 (48); Encarnacion, 11 (44); Hatteberg, 8 (32)
Triples: No change, three players tied with 1 apiece
Home Runs: Dunn, 13 (52); Kearns, 7 (28); Encarnacion, 6 (24)
Stolen Bases: Lopez, 16 (64); Freel, 10 (40); Phillips, 8 (32)
BBs: Dunn, 36 (144); Freel, 22 (88); Hatteberg, 20 (80)

PITCHING
Innings Pitched: Arroyo, 63.2 (254.2); Harang, 58 (232); Claussen, 45.1 (181.1)
Games Started: Arroyo and Harang, 9 (36); Claussen, 8 (32)
Games Pitched: Coffey, 20 (80); Weathers, 18 (72); White, 17 (68)
Wins: Arroyo and Harang, 5 (20); 4 Pitchers Tied with 2 apiece.
Saves: Weathers, 9 (36); White and Mercker, 1 apiece (4).
Holds: Coffey, 9 (36); Mercker, 4 (16); White and Shackelford, 2 apiece (8).
Strikeouts: Harang, 58 (232); Arroyo, 47 (188); Claussen, 36 (144)

redsmetz
05-18-2006, 06:49 AM
1988 (24):
Danny Jackson 15 (6 ShO), Tom Browning 5 (2 ShO*), Mario Soto 3 (1 ShO), Dennis Rasmussen (ShO)
*includes perfect game

Danny Jackson had 15 complete games? Wow - not to mention Browning and Soto have another 8 total.

Guacarock
06-03-2006, 01:17 AM
OK gang. We've now played 54 games -- one-third of the schedule. Time to update the team leader board, as well as seasonal projections, which are now starting to be more meaningful, owing to the larger sample size. Feel free to comment on the leaders, any surprises, disappointments, and interlopers you expect to break into the pack before 2006 draws to a close. Next update: the halfway, 81-game milepost.

OFFENSE
Hits: Lopez, 62 (186); Kearns, 58 (174); Encarnacion and Phillips, 48 apiece (144)
Runs: Dunn, 41 (123); Lopez, 38 (114); Kearns, 34 (102)
RBI: Kearns and Encarnacion, 36 apiece (108); Dunn and Phillips, 32 apiece (96); Griffey, 29 (87)
Doubles: Encarnacion, 17 (51); Kearns, 15 (45); Dunn and Hatteberg, 10 apiece (30)
Triples: Five players tied with one apiece
Home Runs: Dunn, 17 (51); Kearns, 10 (30); Griffey, 7 (21)
Stolen Bases: Lopez, 16 (48); Phillips and Freel, 11 apiece (33)
BB: Dunn, 45 (135); Lopez, 29 (87); Hatteberg, 25 (75)

PITCHING
Innings pitched: Harang, 79 (237); Arroyo, 76.2 (230); Claussen, 63.1 (190)
Games started: Harang, 12 (36); Arroyo and Claussen, 11 apiece (33)
Games pitched: Coffey, 25 (75); Weathers, 23 (69); White, 21 (63)
Wins: Harang and Arroyo, 6 apiece (18); Claussen and Milton, 3 apiece (9)
Saves: Weathers, 9 (27); Coffey, 2 (6); White and Mercker, 1 apiece (3)
Holds: Coffey, 9 (27); Mercker, 4 (12); 4 tied with 2 apiece.
Strikeouts: Harang, 80 (240); Arroyo, 59 (177); Claussen, 46 (138)

Guacarock
07-02-2006, 01:51 AM
We've now reached the halfway milepost -- 81 games. As promised, here is the corresponding update listing the team offense and pitching leaders, along with the projections of where they'll end the season if they maintain their current pace of production.

OFFENSE
Hits: Lopez, 87 (174); Kearns and Phillips, tied with 80 apiece (160).
Runs: Dunn, 57 (114); Lopez, 51 (102); Kearns, 46 (92).
RBI: Dunn, 52 (104); Griffey and Kearns, tied with 47 apiece (94).
Doubles: Encarnacion and Kearns, tied with 19 apiece (38), Hatteberg, 17 (34).
Triples: Seven players tied with 1 apiece.
Home Runs: Dunn, 26 (52); Griffey, 17 (34); Kearns, 15 (30).
Stolen Bases: Lopez, 22 (44); Freel, 17 (34); Phillips, 16 (32).
Walks: Dunn, 63 (126); Lopez, 42 (84); Hatteberg, 36 (72).

PITCHING
Innings pitched: Arroyo, 118.2 (237.1); Harang, 112.1 (224.2); Ramirez, 78.1 (156.2).
Games started: Arroyo and Harang, tied at 17 apiece (34); Claussen, 14 (28); Ramirez, 13 (26).
Games pitched: Coffey, 37 (74); Weathers, 34 (68); Mercker, 25 (50). I have removed both Hammond (29 games) and White (26 games), owing to their release.
Wins: Harang and Arroyo, tied with 9 apiece (18); Milton, 4 (8); Ramirez, Claussen, Coffey and Weathers, tied with 3 apiece (6).
Saves: Weathers, 9 (18); Coffey, 7 (14); Mercker, 1 (2).
Holds: Coffey, 9 (18); Mercker, 4 (8); Weathers, 3 (6).
Strikeouts: Harang, 109 (218); Arroyo, 89 (178); Claussen, 57 (114).

Some trends, emerging stories that bear watching:

1. Can all three of our outfielders (Dunn, Griffey and Kearns) pop 30 or more home runs? Should be easy for Dunn. But Griffey will have to stay healthy the rest of the season to do so, and Kearns is right on the cusp.

2. Can Lopez, Freel and Phillips all collect 30 or more stolen bases, or will they slow down as the season progresses?

3. We have two starting pitchers (Harang, Arroyo) almost certain to reach double-digits in the win column. Can a third Reds starter join them, or is 10 wins beyond the reach of Claussen, Ramirez or Milton?

4. Will the bullpen ever stabilize and turn more productive, or will it remain as ineffective the second half as it has been through our first 81 games?

TOBTTReds
07-02-2006, 02:13 AM
We've now reached the halfway milepost -- 81 games. As promised, here is the corresponding update listing the team offense and pitching leaders, along with the projections of where they'll end the season if they maintain their current pace of production.

OFFENSE
Hits: Lopez, 87 (174); Kearns and Phillips, tied with 80 apiece (160).
Runs: Dunn, 57 (114); Lopez, 51 (102); Kearns, 46 (92).
RBI: Dunn, 52 (104); Griffey and Kearns, tied with 47 apiece (94).
Doubles: Encarnacion and Kearns, tied with 19 apiece (38), Hatteberg, 17 (34).
Triples: Seven players tied with 1 apiece.
Home Runs: Dunn, 26 (52); Griffey, 17 (34); Kearns, 15 (30).
Stolen Bases: Lopez, 22 (44); Freel, 17 (34); Phillips, 16 (32).
Walks: Dunn, 63 (126); Lopez, 42 (84); Hatteberg, 36 (72).

PITCHING
Innings pitched: Arroyo, 118.2 (237.1); Harang, 112.1 (224.2); Ramirez, 78.1 (156.2).
Games started: Arroyo and Harang, tied at 17 apiece (34); Claussen, 14 (28); Ramirez, 13 (26).
Games pitched: Coffey, 37 (74); Weathers, 34 (68); Mercker, 25 (50). I have removed both Hammond (29 games) and White (26 games), owing to their release.
Wins: Harang and Arroyo, tied with 9 apiece (18); Milton, 4 (8); Ramirez, Claussen, Coffey and Weathers, tied with 3 apiece (6).
Saves: Weathers, 9 (18); Coffey, 7 (14); Mercker, 1 (2).
Holds: Coffey, 9 (18); Mercker, 4 (8); Weathers, 3 (6).
Strikeouts: Harang, 109 (218); Arroyo, 89 (178); Claussen, 57 (114).

Some trends, emerging stories that bear watching:

1. Can all three of our outfielders (Dunn, Griffey and Kearns) pop 30 or more home runs? Should be easy for Dunn. But Griffey will have to stay healthy the rest of the season to do so, and Kearns is right on the cusp.

2. Can Lopez, Freel and Phillips all collect 30 or more stolen bases, or will they slow down as the season progresses?

3. We have two starting pitchers (Harang, Arroyo) almost certain to reach double-digits in the win column. Can a third Reds starter join them, or is 10 wins beyond the reach of Claussen, Ramirez or Milton?

4. Will the bullpen ever stabilize and turn more productive, or will it remain as ineffective the second half as it has been through our first 81 games?


One thing to keep in mind for Griffey is that his projected numbers you have are just based on the idea that he got those playing 81 games. He has 17 HR's in 52 games, almost exactly 1 every 3 games. So say he plays the rest of the 81 games, at that pace he hits 27 more HR's and finishes with 44 HR's and 120 RBI (has had .9 rbi per game equals 73 RBI in the remaining 81 games). That would be a heck of a year.