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View Full Version : Odds in Griffey's Favor for Tomorrow?



edabbs44
05-08-2006, 10:12 PM
From Marc's blog:

Just figured I should throw a post up here to make sure everyone has somewhere to congregate. Long travel day back home from Phoenix today, with the Aurilia family also returning on the same flight. I'm taking tomorrow off, so Griffey-watch will be in the able hands of C. Trent.

Don't have anything to base this on, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say 60-40 that Junior is activated tomorrow. OK, maybe 55-45. It just feels like it's about time. But I guess we'll see.

REDSEER
05-08-2006, 10:16 PM
I know that many don't want him back with our recent success, but our lineup becomes that much stronger with Junior in the middle of it.

edabbs44
05-08-2006, 10:18 PM
I know that many don't want him back with our recent success, but our lineup becomes that much stronger with Junior in the middle of it.

I'd like to see him go to LF, but I know that's a pipe dream.

redsfan30
05-08-2006, 10:54 PM
The offense has struggled badly over the past week. They need him.

flyer85
05-08-2006, 10:56 PM
I'm not buyin

markymark69
05-08-2006, 11:11 PM
The offense has struggled badly over the past week. They need him.

Couldn't agree w/you more. Hope No. 3 is back.

harangatang
05-08-2006, 11:14 PM
I hate to see the much improved defense go down the drain when Jr and his horrible range go back to CF.

reds44
05-08-2006, 11:16 PM
I hate to see the much improved defense go down the drain when Jr and his horrible range go back to CF.
You don't want him back?

George Foster
05-08-2006, 11:21 PM
Back for how long?

harangatang
05-08-2006, 11:25 PM
You don't want him back?Nope. I would much rather have a defensive CF at this point than having Griffey and his awful range. We don't need more offense, they went through a little funk in AZ but they'll be fine. What we do is someone younger who can field the position with good range. I would much rather have Chris Denorfia in CF than KGJ because he plays much better defense. Denorfia's offense would be a little less than KGJ but again we don't need more offense.

reds44
05-08-2006, 11:27 PM
Denorfia's offense would be a little less then KGJ

Understatement of the year.

harangatang
05-08-2006, 11:43 PM
Understatement of the year.
You act like that Denofia can't hit at all but that notion is one that is very untrue. Last year in AAA alone Denorfia batted .323 and had an OBP of .391 in which he had 100 hits, 41 BB's in 323 AB's. Not to mention he had 61 RBIs and he had 13 HR's which shows he has some pop in his bat too. Plus his defensive skills are so much better than KGJ.

Nugget
05-08-2006, 11:43 PM
Lonnie Wheeler had a good point of view on the Griffey thing. I don't think Junior himself contributed to the bad defensive stats for the REDS in April. Think about the errors committed by EE who has subsequently improved. A new 1B and Dunn's calamities which have also gotten better.

harangatang
05-08-2006, 11:50 PM
Lonnie Wheeler had a good point of view on the Griffey thing. I don't think Junior himself contributed to the bad defensive stats for the REDS in April. Think about the errors committed by EE who has subsequently improved. A new 1B and Dunn's calamities which have also gotten better.
I don't think it's errors that KGJ commits that make the Reds bad, it's the fact he can't get to all the balls he should be able to catch. KGJ is the opposite of Rafael Furcal when he was playing for the Braves. Furcal had alot of errors because he could get to balls alot of SS couldn't catch. KGJ doesn't have as many errors because he doesn't get to as many balls as he should and therefore he isn't charged with an error because he isn't as close as he should be.

Jr's Boy
05-09-2006, 12:55 AM
Last year in AAA alone Denorfia batted .323 and had an OBP of .391 in which he had 100 hits, 41 BB's in 323 AB's. Not to mention he had 61 RBIs and he had 13 HR's which shows he has some pop in his bat too. Plus his defensive skills are so much better than KGJ.

You said it,AAA,thats exactly what those numbers were in.

membengal
05-09-2006, 07:23 AM
You said it,AAA,thats exactly what those numbers were in.

Right. So, OBVIOUSLY he should never get a chance to see what he can do at this level.

Yeesh.

EKURed
05-09-2006, 08:38 AM
The lineup needs Griffey in it. He makes everybody better offensively. He is the guy that opposing pitchers are most afraid of, regardless of how many home runs Dunn has.

redsmetz
05-09-2006, 08:41 AM
Quote:


Denorfia's offense would be a little less then KGJ

Understatement of the year.

Took the words right out of my mouth. I think we gain much more offensively with Griffey than we lose defensively.

UPRedsFan
05-09-2006, 08:57 AM
The perfect solution: convince Griffey to play 1B.

Replace Hatteberg with Griffey in the lineup, greatly reduces chance of recurring injury since he won't be chasing balls into the gaps. Solidifies defense in center and 2B by getting Freel and Denorfia in center and keeping Phillips at 2B. Only two questions, can he dig out throws from EE and Felipe when they bounce them in there? and Can Narron and Krivsky convince Jr. that this is the best move to lengthen his career?

redsmetz
05-09-2006, 09:30 AM
The perfect solution: convince Griffey to play 1B.

Replace Hatteberg with Griffey in the lineup, greatly reduces chance of recurring injury since he won't be chasing balls into the gaps. Solidifies defense in center and 2B by getting Freel and Denorfia in center and keeping Phillips at 2B. Only two questions, can he dig out throws from EE and Felipe when they bounce them in there? and Can Narron and Krivsky convince Jr. that this is the best move to lengthen his career?

I've resisted this line of thought, but decided today to look at baseball-reference.com to see what other comparable players did in their careers.

Of those listed, I went with those I knew to be outfielders at some point in their careers to see what they did.

Mickey Mantle, with similar legs to Griffey, moved to 1st base at age 35 and played his final two years there. Had the DH existed, he probably would have moved there.

Willie Stargell moved to 1st base at age 35 also and played a total of 8 years there, until age 42. I was surprised by this because I assumed he had been a 1st baseman for most of his career. In fact it was only about 40% of his career.

Duke Snider played his entire career in the Outfield, playing until he was 37 years old. In truth, he did not exceed 130 games after age 30, although I don't know enough about Snider to know if that was due to injuries or just moving an "old" player out as he played out the string. His last really productive season was when he was 30 in 1957 and was probably an example of a player being "old" at 30 that led the Reds to trade Frank Robinson some years later. [Note: I'm inferring that management may have taken him to be old, although I don't know].

One other player who surprised me, although not an outfielder, was Mike Schmidt who primarily was a 3rd baseman, but actually played some 1st base. In 1985, at age 35 also, he played 106 games at 1st, but then moved back to 3rd when he played.

Perhaps they can talk Griffey into making that move. I think Hatteberg still gets some time there on days to rest Griffey, as well as Interleague games when Griffey can DH.

Far East
05-09-2006, 09:32 AM
First off, I'm a Ryan Freel and Chris Denorfia fan, who wouldn't be?

Granted, Freel and Denorfia may have more speed than Griffey in CF, but IMHO Jr. is a far better defender. He still gets an excellent first step, rarely misjudges the depth of a drive (unlike the other two), takes the shortest route to the ball, and tracks and gloves the ball better than any Red OFer -- although I confess that I have not seen enough of McCracken to give an opinion on him yet -- and his arm is second only to Kearns.

I fear that we have fallen into a habit of quoting someone who was quoting someone else who quoted still someone else, etc., etc. .... who (rightly or wrongly) perceived a lack of range by Griffey.

And there's always the assumption (again rightly or wrongly) that range is surely going to deteriorate with age ... along with hearing, vision, muscle tone, etc. that may influence our opinions about a specific veteran.

I'm not claiming that my opinion is better than anyone else's; it certainly may be far worse than most. But, aside from the "Individual Game Analysis: Pitching, Defense, Arroyo/Harang Effect and Griffey Effect" thread, there is little that's quantative about the Reds' CF defense with or without Griffey; what we mostly hear is all subjective -- including this post of mine.

Speaking of subjectivity, I would love to see ESPN's scouting report on Junior's defense -- I don't subscribe any more.

But I'm just wondering if other factors like hearsay from other fans, our views about the expected aging process, or even what we think of Junior's salary may creep into our evaluation of his playing abilities.

membengal
05-09-2006, 09:54 AM
No. Jr. is a bad CF. There is no perception problem. I can see with with my own eyes. His legs are shot, he has no first step, he has no second gear, he cannot dive for balls (balls that a better CF would catch on the fly anyway), he is simply atrocious.

It is not 1996 anymore. It is time to stop living in the past. Let it go. Jr. is a massive liability in CF, a run allowing machine.

Boston Red
05-09-2006, 09:59 AM
The perfect solution: convince Griffey to play 1B.

Replace Hatteberg with Griffey in the lineup, greatly reduces chance of recurring injury since he won't be chasing balls into the gaps. Solidifies defense in center and 2B by getting Freel and Denorfia in center and keeping Phillips at 2B. Only two questions, can he dig out throws from EE and Felipe when they bounce them in there? and Can Narron and Krivsky convince Jr. that this is the best move to lengthen his career?

Why on earth would you want Hatteberg out of the lineup? His OBP of .404 is tied with Dunn for the club lead among regulars. And isn't reaching base without making an out the whole point?

UPRedsFan
05-09-2006, 10:19 AM
I don't want him out of the lineup per se. But I think it's safe to say that Griffey will OPS higher and improve the offense. And Hatteberg does not have a career .400 on base average either. I expect he'll slip a little over time.

danforsman
05-09-2006, 10:41 AM
If the Reds had Denorfia/Freel in LF rather than Dunn, maybe they could afford less range in CF with Junior. Dunn/Griffey in LF/CF is a pretty sub-standard defensive alignment. That said, I want Junior back ASAP, even if it's in CF.

Falls City Beer
05-09-2006, 10:44 AM
With all the flyballs Claussen gives up, tonight is not the night to start Griffey in center.

TeamBoone
05-09-2006, 01:04 PM
Publication date: 05-09-2006

Glaring hole in lineup
Others suffer when Junior's out
By Marc Lancaster / Post staff reporter

Ken Griffey Jr. could be back in the lineup as early as tonight when the Reds host the Washington Nationals at Great American Ball Park. Griffey has been on the disabled list for almost a month.

Austin Kearns' point Sunday afternoon was well-taken.

"When you're going good," he said, "you're usually not missing mistakes."

But the key to success in the majors, as Reds manager Jerry Narron is fond of saying, is the ability to get the job done when conditions aren't ideal.

The Reds have enough good hitters to do that most days, especially when feasting on those mistakes Kearns mentioned. Every once in a while, though, they run into a pitcher who has everything working. They have to hit his pitches, and they have to find a way to do something with them.

Those are the days the Reds most need Ken Griffey Jr. in the lineup.

"He's a guy that's able to hit good pitching," said Narron. "And the biggest thing is, just having him in the lineup, there's a presence there. I think it affects everything, I really do."

The Reds are 16-8 since Griffey strained a tendon behind his right knee April 12, the team's eighth game of the season. That run of .667 baseball - better than anyone had a right to expect - has sparked suggestions from some talk-show callers and Internet posters that the team might be better off without the future Hall of Famer.

To those in the Reds' clubhouse, it's difficult to imagine a more ridiculous assertion.

Setting aside the defensive component, which breaks down as a choice between Ryan Freel's expanded range and Griffey's superior instincts and experience, the Reds' batting order really isn't the same without its No. 3 hitter.

The men who generally bracket Griffey on the lineup card, Felipe Lopez in the second spot and Adam Dunn hitting cleanup, have suffered in his absence.

Before April 13, Dunn was hitting .370, had a 1.309 OPS (on-base average plus slugging percentage). Since, he's hitting .207 with a .924 OPS. Lopez was at .324 with a .924 OPS before Griffey's injury, and even after collecting four hits Sunday he's batting .265 with a .705 OPS.

With the Reds now missing the services of another professional hitter, Rich Aurilia, for at least another week and a half, the need for Griffey to return is accentuated.

"We've got guys who were swinging a hot bat for a while, but it's very tough to keep that pace," said Dunn. "There's probably only one guy on the team that can keep the pace they were going at, and that's him. That's because he's done it."

No one will argue Griffey is the same player he was a decade ago, but he can still change a game with his bat. He demonstrated that in the World Baseball Classic this spring, just as he did in the middle four months of last season when he was healthy.

Griffey's Comeback Player of the Year campaign, in which he hit .301 with 35 homers and 92 RBIs, seems to have faded from the memories of some. Narron is not among them.

"I think some people have forgotten what kind of year Junior had last year," said the manager. "He drove in 90-something runs and he missed almost all of September. Griff's one of the best hitters in baseball, but we've been winning games without him here, so people aren't talking about him not being here. I know when I write out that lineup every day, I sure miss putting him in that three spot."

The hope is that Griffey will be back in there tonight when the Reds and Washington Nationals open a three-game series at Great American Ball Park, but no one can be sure until his name shows up in blue felt-tip marker on the card.

"It'll be good to get him back in the lineup," said Dunn. "He just changes our lineup."

http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060509/SPT05/605090328/1027

Publication date: 05-09-2006

Adam's in a slump (hopefully, coming out of it), but I don't buy that his performance has suffered because he hits behind Griffey in the lineup this year. Last year he rarely followed Griffey... instead he more often hit lower in the order.

But I do think his bat is missed.

VR
05-09-2006, 01:09 PM
If Griff was going to be activated, they most likely would have announced by now to help walk up ticket sales. If not, they'll wait til game time, if even then, to make a non-announcement.

Every time I hear about Griff, I can't help but visualize M2's comment about the Red's organization......a chicken with it's head cut off trying to stuff cash down it's neck. (it may have been a bit more graphic than that ;) )

The may be honest and frank this time, who knows. But their credibility has been shot with the history of Griff's injuries.....all in the name of ticket sales, or so it seems.

Being honest with your shareholders is always the best way to do business in the long run, even if it's painful in the short haul.

danwl
05-09-2006, 03:02 PM
Agreed we'd all appreciate having a decent idea of what is actually going on. Mgmt has appeared to cry wolf a few too many times to have any credibility with respect to Griffey's medical situation. We all now assume that the one scenario that CANT be true is the story we are told, which unfortunately seems pretty much true.

Maybe Jr is pulling a Clemens. Jr played (well) at the WBC, but didn't want to take the heat from the Reds management or fans for taking time off right afterwards, so he waits a few weeks, and takes a break for a minor twinge in his (already bad) legs. Could be, he's saving himself for the division race, just like Clemens is sitting out saving himself for the playoffs. 'Course Jr. is collecting a paycheck at the same time, so we have to play this injury game.

Cooper
05-09-2006, 07:13 PM
I'm gonna guess Griffey ain't coming back this year and will need more surgery.