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View Full Version : How Much Would You Pay To Win the NL CentraL?



Krusty
05-09-2006, 09:28 AM
The NL Central could be the toughest and deepest division of all the divisions in baseball. And while the Reds have been a feel good story the first quarter of the season, it remains to be seen in the starting pitching, bullpen and Griffey can hold up an entire season.

Okay, let's say the Reds are in contention come the July trading deadline. How much should Krvisky give up to upgrade the roster for the stretch run? How much of the future does he give up to aquire a arm or two among the likes of Barry Zito, Dontrelle Willis, Livan Hernandez, Odalis Perez and others?

With new ownership committed to turning things around and bring winning baseball back in Cincinnati and hopefully bring more fans back to the ballpark, how far should they go to acquire additional talent without the longterm sacrifices?

kyle1976
05-09-2006, 11:51 AM
Hopefully, we'll find out what they'll do. The Reds should have some left over money from Casey for Williams debacle. Plus, ownership has already stated they will spend if we're in contention. They obviously need another reliever, preferbly a closer. Another starter would be nice too, but I think that depends how the health of the staff is in July. I highly doubt Paul Wilson will be effective enough to make a playoff run. It's also obvious that Dave Williams and Elizardo aren't going to get it done all season too. Getting Zito is not going to happen. Too much money, plus the Mets want him. Dontrelle would be great, but what would the Marlins want in return. Who knows what will happen.....atleast we're talking about it positively for a change.

Hoosier Red
05-09-2006, 11:55 AM
The problem becomes not so much spending money, but rather whom would you trade. While I think most people are willing to trade anyone in the farm system, who do we have that others really want?
Would you be willing to trade Bailey, Wood, etc for a chance at one year in contention?

OldXOhio
05-09-2006, 12:05 PM
in the fwiw category, the guys on XM MLB radio this morning were speculating that the Reds would actively pursue Zito.

Falls City Beer
05-09-2006, 12:11 PM
in the fwiw category, the guys on XM MLB radio this morning were speculating that the Reds would actively pursue Zito.

They should. Provided they could work on an extension.

vaticanplum
05-09-2006, 12:17 PM
The Mets' injuries are scaring me. I actually don't think that a Zito-type pitcher is out of the question for this front office provided the team is still performing in June and July. But it's going to be hard to match a Mets offer if they're desperate to fill out their starting rotation, plus they play in a canyon while we play in a cave and which is going to be more appealing to a pitcher.

westofyou
05-09-2006, 12:17 PM
I'd be careful "paying" anything outrageous.

Historically teams that make a huge upswing one year (after being bad for many years) fall to earth the following year.

Part of the growth process this year should also include knowledge of the teams limitations, 20% of the season can give you hints of that as well as fan the flames that your teams has no limitations.

I wouldn't want to rob Peter to pay Paul at the expense of future early on in the game, nor would I want the Reds to dabble in highly paid free agents to be so they can get toasted in the playoffs.

Falls City Beer
05-09-2006, 12:24 PM
I'd be careful "paying" anything outrageous.

Historically teams that make a huge upswing one year (after being bad for many years) fall to earth the following year.

Part of the growth process this year should also include knowledge of the teams limitations, 20% of the season can give you hints of that as well as fan the flames that your teams has no limitations.

I wouldn't want to rob Peter to pay Paul at the expense of future early on in the game, nor would I want the Reds to dabble in highly paid free agents to be so they can get toasted in the playoffs.

The only things that can be shed on the Reds of particular value are Kearns and Lopez. I would be deeply against trading Enc. for Zito, but either one of the first two guys above, I'd be fine with trading for Zito. But, as far as I'm concerned, the A's can raid the minors if they want.

westofyou
05-09-2006, 12:30 PM
But, as far as I'm concerned, the A's can raid the minors if they want. The Reds minor leagues is the equivalent of a Lennon Band album, there's some gems in there and then there are those Yoko songs.

dougdirt
05-09-2006, 12:34 PM
Personally, for a half season rental of any pitcherr, which is the likelihood of all we will get (really what pitcher entering FA wants to pitch in this park?), I would not trade Bailey, Bruce or Wood in the minors or Edwin in the majors. Anyone else, would just be a "who are we getting in return" question as to who to give up.

edabbs44
05-09-2006, 12:43 PM
Personally, for a half season rental of any pitcherr, which is the likelihood of all we will get (really what pitcher entering FA wants to pitch in this park?), I would not trade Bailey, Bruce or Wood in the minors or Edwin in the majors. Anyone else, would just be a "who are we getting in return" question as to who to give up.

I would be open to dealing any of those guys if the pitcher in return has youth (i.e., Willis).

wolfboy
05-09-2006, 01:25 PM
I'd be careful "paying" anything outrageous.

Historically teams that make a huge upswing one year (after being bad for many years) fall to earth the following year.

Part of the growth process this year should also include knowledge of the teams limitations, 20% of the season can give you hints of that as well as fan the flames that your teams has no limitations.

I wouldn't want to rob Peter to pay Paul at the expense of future early on in the game, nor would I want the Reds to dabble in highly paid free agents to be so they can get toasted in the playoffs.

This is a great post WOY. I want to see the new ownership prepare this organization to succeed consistently going forward.

We are not going to be a larger payroll type of team. If we accept that reality, then we have to understand that the best way to bring consistent success to the Reds is to build from within. Perhaps this team can stay in contention through July. At the deadline, we ship Bailey and Wood for Zito. The team flames in August/September, and then what do we have? No playoff appearance. A limited payroll to bring in FA talent. A minor league system that has lost the few chips it had left. In this scenario, we aren't a playoff team and would not be one for the forseeable future.

I will enjoy the ride while it lasts. It is incredibly fun to watch this team win. If they can keep it up for a while, that just might be enough to bring back some of the fans. I still do not believe they are a World Series (or even playoff) contender at this time. With that in mind, I think it would be very damaging to bet the few chips we have on an incredible long shot.

OldXOhio
05-09-2006, 01:31 PM
The only things that can be shed on the Reds of particular value are Kearns and Lopez. I would be deeply against trading Enc. for Zito, but either one of the first two guys above, I'd be fine with trading for Zito. But, as far as I'm concerned, the A's can raid the minors if they want.

I would argue in the right package, Larue could also return something of value. Not a pitcher the caliber of Zito, but certainly someone useful. And while Kearns is the popular choice by many, exactly why would be interested in shedding Felipe?

Redsnake
05-09-2006, 01:39 PM
The Reds won't give much talent up, so they won't get much in a return. I can see a Radke, Westbrook, Joe Mays, Silva, Livan, Lilly, type player. At the very best it might be a Jason Schmidt. He's a free agent after this year.

LincolnparkRed
05-09-2006, 01:44 PM
exactly why would be interested in shedding Felipe?

Quite a few chalk this up to the "Boras factor" and how it would be to keep him, the problem being even if you move phillips over, then who plays 2B? A richie/Hattie platoon at 1B and a Richie/Freel at 2b might be manageable

15fan
05-09-2006, 01:44 PM
I believe that some regulars around here have made the observation that the team doesn't pick the year...the year picks the team.

If the Reds are in it and can bag a front line player at the trade deadline, then go for it. The worst case scenario is that the player doesn't get the Reds over the hump, then the guy walks as a FA.

That translates into comp picks. Those are a great way to restock the minors.

Or maybe the guy likes it in Cincy, making it possible to bag a front-line player for 2007 & beyond without having to outbid the likes of the Yankees or Dodgers. That's a win-win situation, too.

Finally, and most importantly, making a move shows a committment to the team and the fans that the Reds are serious about winning. Can't go wrong there, either.

Think back to all of the valuable pieces that the Reds have given away to contenders over the past couple of years. Maybe this is the year that the Reds have someone in charge who's actually smart enough to buy for pennies on the dollar instead of selling for pennies on the dollar.

oneupper
05-09-2006, 01:44 PM
I thought you guys meant like the red sox Mastercard commercial...when they come after Dennis Leary.

http://www.redsoxconnection.com/soxmastercard.wmv

6-4-3
05-09-2006, 02:03 PM
I believe that some regulars around here have made the observation that the team doesn't pick the year...the year picks the team.


I couldn't agree more. If the Reds are in this thing, come July 31 you have to make a run at it. Now i'm not talking throwing away the teams whole future...but I am talking making smart baseball moves. You don't know when a chance like this could come again.

wolfboy
05-09-2006, 02:21 PM
I believe that some regulars around here have made the observation that the team doesn't pick the year...the year picks the team.

If the Reds are in it and can bag a front line player at the trade deadline, then go for it. The worst case scenario is that the player doesn't get the Reds over the hump, then the guy walks as a FA.

That translates into comp picks. Those are a great way to restock the minors.

Or maybe the guy likes it in Cincy, making it possible to bag a front-line player for 2007 & beyond without having to outbid the likes of the Yankees or Dodgers. That's a win-win situation, too.

Finally, and most importantly, making a move shows a committment to the team and the fans that the Reds are serious about winning. Can't go wrong there, either.

Think back to all of the valuable pieces that the Reds have given away to contenders over the past couple of years. Maybe this is the year that the Reds have someone in charge who's actually smart enough to buy for pennies on the dollar instead of selling for pennies on the dollar.


Good points to show the other side of the coin. I suppose there are a few unknowns at this point. How well can this regime draft? If they show an ability to find and groom talent, then it won't be so tragic if they trade the little minor league talent they have. Another question is whether BCast is willing to pay for someone like Zito long term.

vaticanplum
05-09-2006, 03:00 PM
I believe that some regulars around here have made the observation that the team doesn't pick the year...the year picks the team.

If the Reds are in it and can bag a front line player at the trade deadline, then go for it. The worst case scenario is that the player doesn't get the Reds over the hump, then the guy walks as a FA.

That translates into comp picks. Those are a great way to restock the minors.

Or maybe the guy likes it in Cincy, making it possible to bag a front-line player for 2007 & beyond without having to outbid the likes of the Yankees or Dodgers. That's a win-win situation, too.

Finally, and most importantly, making a move shows a committment to the team and the fans that the Reds are serious about winning. Can't go wrong there, either.

Think back to all of the valuable pieces that the Reds have given away to contenders over the past couple of years. Maybe this is the year that the Reds have someone in charge who's actually smart enough to buy for pennies on the dollar instead of selling for pennies on the dollar.

I agree.

I am all for building up the farm system, and a dynasty would be nice. But if the guys are winning this year, they should be given every opportunity to win this year.

Obviously, this doesn't mean giving up our young stars-to-be who are under our control for awhile at low cost for a Roger Clemens type. That just doesn't make sense. But some combination of Kearns, LaRue, Freel et al. for a Dontrelle Willis seems acceptable to me.

This team cannot contend for/in the postseason with its current pitching staff. Period. But IF they are still hanging in there come July 31, then to not do what we can to help them get further, when they are doing well against all odds in the first place, does the team and the fans a disservice. If I was a talented player who's locked up in Cincinnati for the next few years, like (I hope, I hope) Dunn, I'd be pretty upset if the team were where it is now in July and no moves were made. And truly, with this front office, I really don't think that would be the case.

RedsManRick
05-09-2006, 03:29 PM
For what it's worth, the sale of the Nats provides ~15 Mil in revenue to each team. Of course, this means everybody has the money to spend, but they still can choose how to spend it.

Krusty
05-09-2006, 04:15 PM
I don't think money is really a question here with the new ownership regime. They want to win and are willing to spend the money under the right circumstances. Now being in contention come July should mean more fannies in the seat. You go out and acquire two or three ballplayers for the stretch run and suddenly you'll see excitement for Cincinnati Reds baseball that hasn't been seen since 1999.

And if you look at the farm system, how many real gems are there? How would Bailey and Wood rank with teams' that have strong farm systems? Are we going to let Homer Bailey be the hangup to possibly acquiring someone like Dontrelle Willis? Maybe Bailey turns out to be the next Josh Beckett. But for every Beckett and Clemens, you have the likes of Scott Scudder and Jack Armstrong. And if a farm system rides on just two or three prospects (like Bailey and Wood), well that doesn't say much about the team's farm system.

Resurrecting the farm system is in Krivsky's hands now. Bowden talked a good story but the results were never there. O'Brien didn't have a clue and his two years show in regards to legitimate prospects coming through the system. Now it's Krivsky's turn and I'm quite sure there are players in the system that he might not think as highly as O'Brien did. Now if he goes and trades them for a starting pitcher while revamping the farm system to his liking, more power to him.

Aronchis
05-09-2006, 04:37 PM
Wood has less value than you may think. 19 year old lefties still adapting to pro-ball are not rare, he has great stuff in that change, but he is legitly 3 years away at least and being a lefty could slow him down as he moves up.

The Reds big 2 are Bailey and Bruce. But we don't have to trade either to get what you want(though is somebody offers a "developed Bailey" on the MLB level, he is packing his bags quickly). Getting what you need vs. what you want are two different things.

I Figure between the AA prospects and the 05 college pitchers,there is enough to throw in along with some fluff like Germano, to get what you need.

OldXOhio
05-09-2006, 05:11 PM
I Figure between the AA prospects and the 05 college pitchers,there is enough to throw in along with some fluff like Germano, to get what you need.

Only if the 2-3 that Krusty are mentioning are middle relievers. Enter the sweepstakes for a #1/#2 starter or a closer and there's no way that even sniffs getting a deal done.