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View Full Version : Will Dunn break Foster's home run record this year?



OnBaseMachine
05-09-2006, 06:15 PM
George Foster owns the Reds single-season home run record with 52 HR back in 1977. He finished that year with a statline of .320/.382/.631.

Adam Dunn is currently on pace to hit 61 home runs this years, which would easily break George Foster's record. Now the question is, can he keep it up? I doubt he will hit 61 but 52 is very much within reach. Dunn came with six HR in 2004 when he hit 46. In that 2004 season I can remember Dunn being robbed of two HR(one by Edmonds, another in Houston), plus he went through two very long streaks(18 days from May 11-May 29 and 16 days Sept. 11-Sept. 27) where he didn't hit a HR, which ruined his chance at breaking the record. If he can avoid a long HR drought this year - then I could defineatly see him challenging the record.

Dunn hit his eighth HR in April of 2004 and only four in May. He didn't hit his 13th HR of that year until the first day on June when he hit two down in Miami against Brad Penny and the Marlins. Dunn at this moment has 12 HR in the 2006 season, which puts him well above his 2004 pace. Again, if he avoids the long HR droughts then the record could be his.

I was just looking at some old boxscores on retrosheet. George Foster only had 4 home runs on this date(May 9) in 1977. He didn't hit his 12th home run of that year until June 8th in Shea Stadium. So, Dunn is well above Foster's pace in 1977.

George Foster-1977 Breakdown of month-by-month


Month G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
April 19 70 9 23 3 1 3 20 6 1 9 1 0 3 0 0 2 1 2 .329 .375 .529
May 25 92 14 26 5 0 8 11 11 2 26 2 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 .283 .371 .598
June 28 114 30 38 8 0 9 38 10 1 18 2 0 1 0 1 4 1 0 .333 .394 .640
July 29 118 24 37 5 0 12 29 10 2 21 0 0 2 0 2 5 1 1 .314 .362 .661
August 29 116 26 34 5 0 12 28 8 1 22 0 0 1 0 3 4 0 0 .293 .336 .647
September 26 97 20 38 5 1 8 22 16 3 10 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 .392 .474 .711
October 2 8 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .125 .125 .125

I'll go with a yes. I think he will have a huge June and July to help boost him past Foster.

BTW, Ted Kluszewski holds the Reds all-time record for most homers in a season by a lefthanded hitter, with 49 in 1954. He followed that up with 47 more in 1955. Dunn sits third with his 46 in 2004.

Dunn also has a chance a few more Reds records this year, including most walks(132 by Joe Morgan), runs(139 by Bid McPhee), and AB/HR(11.7 by Ted Kluszewski).

RichRed
05-09-2006, 06:25 PM
George Foster was my first favorite player as a kid and part of me wants him to hold on to the record (52-149-.320 were more magical to me than 755, 56 or 2130), but I think Adam will do it. But is it ok if I root for him to tie it? :)

I know that for several years, Foster was the last guy in the majors to hit 50 HRs; I think it was Cecil Fielder who finally came along and hit 51 one year.

KronoRed
05-09-2006, 06:26 PM
Yes, and he'll beat it by about 5

Mario-Rijo
05-09-2006, 06:28 PM
I think he may fall just short of it. 49 is my guess at this point, Just a gut instinct. However before his career is over i am guessing he will eventually hit 55-57 in a single season and perhaps another 50 hr. season somewhwere along the line.

Heath
05-09-2006, 06:28 PM
I think 50 is about right.

52 would be cool though.

15fan
05-09-2006, 08:32 PM
I know that for several years, Foster was the last guy in the majors to hit 50 HRs; I think it was Cecil Fielder who finally came along and hit 51 one year.

Mays broke the 50 barrier with 52 in 1965.

Foster mashed 52 in 1977.

Cecil Fielder hit 51 in 1990.

George was the only guy in a quarter century to go for 50.

That's something that will never happen again.

indyred
05-09-2006, 10:18 PM
I think he will. The right field porch at GAB is perfect for him. We have seen the ball is flying out of at record pace now. Should only get better for the home run hitter's in the summer heat.........

Highlifeman21
05-10-2006, 12:56 AM
Watch Dunn's BB to increase and his HR to decrease

NastyBoy
05-10-2006, 02:02 AM
I think that Adam Dunn will go down as the most prolific HR hitter in Reds history if management decides to make him a career Red. Foster clubbed his 52 enroute to a career high in BA, HRs and RBIs which earned him an MVP.

So, in my reasoning, if Dunn clubs 53 HRs in a single season, it will be an MVP type year.

The only other current Red to club more than 52 HRs is Ken Griffey Jr. He hit 56 in back to back years in 1997 and 1998. In 1997 he won the MVP. In 1998 he came in 4th in MVP voting.

So, in my thinking, if Dunn breaks the Reds single season record, it will be part of an MVP type season... which so far this season he has not had.

BTW... when Ted Kluszewski clubbed 49, he came in second to Willie Mays for MVP.

macro
05-10-2006, 07:48 AM
Mays broke the 50 barrier with 52 in 1965.

Foster mashed 52 in 1977.

Cecil Fielder hit 51 in 1990.

George was the only guy in a quarter century to go for 50.

That's something that will never happen again.

I think this post bears repeating, and this is the reason that Foster's 52 in 1977 will remain the most impressive HR season in Reds history, regardless of how many Dunn hits in a single season.

buckeyenut
05-10-2006, 07:00 PM
Dunn might not do it this year (although I voted he would), but he will break the Reds HR and BB records before he retires.

The scary thing about this year is his 12 HR include a huge HR drought in the middle of it, longer than he has had in a while.