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View Full Version : Thoughts from tonights game



reds44
05-12-2006, 10:47 PM
Felipe Lopez
Edwin Encarnacion
Austin Kearns
Really good players

FEAR

The 3 of them are the only ones doing anything with the bats. All 3 have been good basically the entire year (outside of FeLo's slump). Keep it up boys

Elizardo Ramirez

Maybe we have found something here. Yes he is 1-3, but that ain't his fault. He has an ERA around 3. If he keeps that up wins will come. At 23, maybe he is coming into his own.

The Bullpen
Sucks

Adam Dunn
Does he know that he is playing baseball? He is in a slump (a long one at that) and it doesn't seem to matter where you play him, he is going to make key errors.

Ryan Freel
Keep him away from the field. Whenever he plays, bad things happen. Maybe if he goes on the DL he can get some 'rest' and not be worn out.

Saturday's lineup should be
Felipe
EE
Griffey
Kearns
Dunn
Hatte
Phillips
LaRue

CTA513
05-12-2006, 11:05 PM
Dave Williams is pitching tomorrow... :help:

KoryMac5
05-12-2006, 11:06 PM
I agree we definitely need the bullpen to be shored up. We can't keep going on with the guys we have. Mercker, Hammond, and White all have had very bad outings and Shack caught the bug tonight it's time for Wayne to evaluate the bullpen if we are to continue at the pace we are at.

Kc61
05-13-2006, 12:28 AM
Reds pitching and defense gradually reverting to its old form. Last 7 games have allowed the following run totals: 7, 3, 8, 7, 6, 4, 8. Average is over 6 per game.

TeamBoone
05-13-2006, 12:59 AM
Tonight, I'd say the BP pitch (or lack thereof) was the Reds' worst problem.

kyle1976
05-13-2006, 09:20 AM
I agree with you Reds44. Ramirez is raw, but it appears he knows to pitch. He's gotta stay over Dave (batting practice) Williams when Milton returns. Freel needs a vacation. The bullpen needs a complete overhaul. And Dunn, does he know football doesn't start until September? He's a football player in a Reds uni. On the bright side, I think he could be a great tight end for the Bengals. Speaking of football, the Reds will need to score two touchdowns tonight to win with Williams starting. :help: :help: :help:

joshnky
05-13-2006, 10:07 AM
I'm hoping that bullpen help is coming when Milton returns to the rotation and a starter can be bumped to the bp. Maybe it will help turn around DWs year to only pitch one inning at a time. It has to improve his velocity.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 11:40 AM
Felipe Lopez
Edwin Encarnacion
Austin Kearns
Really good players

FEAR

The 3 of them are the only ones doing anything with the bats. All 3 have been good basically the entire year (outside of FeLo's slump). Keep it up boys



If your discounting Felo's slump, wouldn't you say that basically Dunn has been really good the entire year outside of his slump?

kyle1976
05-13-2006, 11:51 AM
I would word it differently.....Dunn has been really bad the entire year outside of 13 dingers and a few other hits.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 12:03 PM
I would word it differently.....Dunn has been really bad the entire year outside of 13 dingers and a few other hits.

What I'm really saying is that nothing should be discounted. Overall both Lopez and Dunn have been very good. In fact, Dunn has been our best hitter so far this season (albeit by a close margin over EE and Kearns).

Dunn has been excellent this year as usual, and there is absolutely no need to be worried over his hitting.

reds44
05-13-2006, 12:37 PM
What I'm really saying is that nothing should be discounted. Overall both Lopez and Dunn have been very good. In fact, Dunn has been our best hitter so far this season (albeit by a close margin over EE and Kearns).

Dunn has been excellent this year as usual, and there is absolutely no need to be worried over his hitting.
Dunn has been our 4th best hitter at best. Felipe, Kearns, and EE have all been better.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 12:58 PM
Dunn has been our 4th best hitter at best. Felipe, Kearns, and EE have all been better.

Based on what?


OPS OBP SLG RC27
Dunn: .963 .386 .577 7.96
Kearns: .954 .388 .566 7.49
EE: .943 .393 .550 7.60
Lopez: .808 .376 .432 6.83

Dunn, Kearns, and EE have all been very good, and there is an argument for each of them, but IMO Dunn is gets the nod because he is the leader in RC/27.

Lopez isn't even in the argument. He is easily last in all of the metrics above.

reds44
05-13-2006, 01:00 PM
Based on what?


OPS OBP SLG RC27
Dunn: .963 .386 .577 7.96
Kearns: .954 .388 .566 7.49
EE: .943 .393 .550 7.60
Lopez: .808 .376 .432 6.83

Dunn, Kearns, and EE have all been very good, and there is an argument for each of them, but IMO Dunn is gets the nod because he is the leader in RC/27.

Lopez isn't even in the argument. He is easily last in all of the metrics above.
Batting Average, OBP, RBIs.

Maybe 4th best was exxagerated, but he certainly hasn't been the best. AK and EE have both veen better.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 01:09 PM
Batting Average, OBP, RBIs.

Maybe 4th best was exxagerated, but he certainly hasn't been the best. AK and EE have both veen better.

Batting average and RBI's aren't the best way to judge hitters. Batting average treats as if all hits are the same (ie. HR=single). That's not a very good way to judge a hitter.

RBI's are too dependent on a number of things (ie. at-bats w/runners in on base) and don't judge how well a player gets on base.

When it comes doen to OBP, SLG, and OPS, the numbers are very close and you could pretty much call all 3 even, but Dunn is actually slightly better overall (but based on the sample size there's not much difference). I see no reason to believe that Dunn can be considered clearly behind either EE or Kearns without a doubt.

And just for the record, Dunn is 2nd on the team in RBI's with 26. 2 behind EE, and 1 ahead of Kearns, despite his poor BA. RBI's can't be used against Dunn here.

paintmered
05-13-2006, 01:09 PM
I dunno....a .386 OBP is a nice problem to have if you ask me.

Casey_21
05-13-2006, 01:16 PM
The only reason Dunns OBP even comes close to the other three is because he takes walks. I also agree that Dunn's bat hasn't made near as much noise as AK and EE. The only stats that would be usefull comparing these guys at this point, if you want to see whose doing better, is the good ole Hits stat, compared to Games.. Which they have all pretty much been in all of them. You can't go wrong with that.. I aint worried about Dunner though. He is in a hell of a slump, but we all know Dunner will pull through, just as he always does. Low BA, high OBP and SLG, thats Dunn, and thats what we expect of Dunn.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 01:20 PM
The only reason Dunns OBP even comes close to the other three is because he takes walks. I also agree that Dunn's bat hasn't made near as much noise as AK and EE. The only stats that would be usefull comparing these guys at this point, if you want to see whose doing better, is the good ole Hits stat, compared to Games.. Which they have all pretty much been in all of them. You can't go wrong with that.. I aint worried about Dunner though. He is in a hell of a slump, but we all know Dunner will pull through, just as he always does. Low BA, high OBP and SLG, thats Dunn, and thats what we expect of Dunn.

Hits is not a good stat to use. Too much of it is dependent on luck. Walks are not a bad thing, and in no way should Dunn's OBP be counted as less because it is heavily walk dependant.

WVRedsFan
05-13-2006, 01:24 PM
Felipe Lopez
Edwin Encarnacion
Austin Kearns
Really good players

FEAR

The 3 of them are the only ones doing anything with the bats. All 3 have been good basically the entire year (outside of FeLo's slump). Keep it up boys

Elizardo Ramirez

Maybe we have found something here. Yes he is 1-3, but that ain't his fault. He has an ERA around 3. If he keeps that up wins will come. At 23, maybe he is coming into his own.

The Bullpen
Sucks

Adam Dunn
Does he know that he is playing baseball? He is in a slump (a long one at that) and it doesn't seem to matter where you play him, he is going to make key errors.

Ryan Freel
Keep him away from the field. Whenever he plays, bad things happen. Maybe if he goes on the DL he can get some 'rest' and not be worn out.

I'm not getting into the Adam Dunn debate. He is what he is and when they quit playing with his hitting philosophy, he'll be fine. but...

You may be onto something with Ramirez. He seems to get into trouble often, but apparently has a couple of "out pitches" that serve him well (I didn't get to see last night's game or any of his other starts). He certainly looks better than Williams. Maybe Williams should go to the pen and leave Lizard in the rotation? Nah, that's too logical.

As for Freel, he continues to prove he's not an everyday player. If I remember correctly (and that's open to debate), when he played a lot two years ago he would slump badly and make horrible decisions when he got tired. Well, he's been doing the same thing this year. I also question his baseball judgement (we won't get into his judgement in other areas). He can do some wonderful things with his speed and hustle, but he also does some really boneheaded things. When playing sparingly, it seems he's more focused. I have watched him over the last ten games and he's constantly taking three strikes in a row or making boneheaded running decisions. Let him be a bench player. That's what he's suited for and nothing more.

The bullpen will get fixed in good time. WayneK will make good moves to shore up this problem. My biggest fear is that we'll lose some cogs on the club that we don't want to lose, but then again that's the tradeoff and the chance we have to take. Last night's game at 2-2 was a golden opportunity. Their bullpen responded and ours fell flat.

WVRedsFan
05-13-2006, 01:26 PM
Hits is not a good stat to use. Too much of it is dependent on luck. Walks are not a bad thing, and in no way should Dunn's OBP be counted as less because it is heavily walk dependant.

Having said that, wouldn't you have to agree that Albert P. must be the luckiest guy in the world??

BCubb2003
05-13-2006, 01:31 PM
Wednesday's game against the Nats is a classic example of Dunn's dilemma. The Reds won by three runs, and Dunn played a role in three runs. He drove in two with a home run, and scored the go-ahead run after he got on base with a walk. Yet he struck out twice, once with the bases loaded, and left four men on base. And that's what people will remember, even though he played a key role in winning the game.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 01:32 PM
Having said that, wouldn't you have to agree that Albert P. must be the luckiest guy in the world??

Not at all. Pujols is the rare kind of guy that can go deep in the count without striking out, meaning he is able to take walks while also putting the ball in play.

When putting the ball in play, and it's not a HR the average BAPIP is roughly .300. For most guys when you go deep in the count it will lead to both BB's and K's. This is not neccessarily a bad thing like in Dunn's case, but Pujols is able to do it all.

Hits are too dependent on luck and for the most part is just a meaningless stat. Because Dunn walks, he wont get as many hits, and should not be punished for it which makes hits a bad indicator of his success, and the fact that Dunn has been unlucky based on BAPIP this season further shows that hits do not determine how good a player Dunn is.

Pujols hits lots of HR's and does not strikeout which in turn results in a high batting average/amount of hits for Pujols.

Patrick Bateman
05-13-2006, 01:33 PM
and scored the go-ahead run after he got on base with a walk.

I think that's what a lot of people are missing here. Good point.

forfreelin04
05-13-2006, 02:45 PM
Not at all. Pujols is the rare kind of guy that can go deep in the count without striking out, meaning he is able to take walks while also putting the ball in play.

When putting the ball in play, and it's not a HR the average BAPIP is roughly .300. For most guys when you go deep in the count it will lead to both BB's and K's. This is not neccessarily a bad thing like in Dunn's case, but Pujols is able to do it all.

Hits are too dependent on luck and for the most part is just a meaningless stat. Because Dunn walks, he wont get as many hits, and should not be punished for it which makes hits a bad indicator of his success, and the fact that Dunn has been unlucky based on BAPIP this season further shows that hits do not determine how good a player Dunn is.

Pujols hits lots of HR's and does not strikeout which in turn results in a high batting average/amount of hits for Pujols.

Good post. This could be used as a great example as to why Albert should not be placed in the same category as Dunn. I like Adam. I used to whine about his lack of avg with RISP and his strikeouts but not as much anymore. He is still the most feared hitter on this team. Whether or not his value supercedes the value of another pitcher who could bring similar numbers as Arroyo has is another story.