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westofyou
05-26-2005, 01:10 PM
At 5'11 Danny Graves has already beaten conventional baseball wisdom in the expansion era.

He's short for a pitcher, he pretty much has been riding a big wave.

It is possible that his board is broken.

If we were to look at all the relief pitchers since the divisional format was created in 1969 who were under six feet tall and age thirty and younger (with less than 35 starts) Graves would be the leader in innings pitched, batters faced and hits allowed. He also is the leader in Saves (by a RH) by more than 50, but only 5th in Runs Saved Above Average.

Saves.... that's another debate for another time.

Anyway, Graves at 5'11 accomplished this workload with the burden of striking out less than league average every season of his career. A pitcher like Graves is a work inducer for the fielders, he demands that the plays be made since he won't be getting many outs alone.

The diminutive (in relation to some of the trees throwing out there these days) relief pitcher is really a rarity.



INNINGS PITCHED IP ERA BFP H SV GS
1 Danny Graves 755.2 3.89 3225 780 172 30
2 Gene Garber 685.1 3.24 2815 621 85 9
T3 Al Hrabosky 651 3.07 2759 554 93 1
T3 John Franco 651 2.53 2730 587 211 0
5 Mel Rojas 595 3.27 2489 501 124 0
6 Jeff Brantley 570.2 3.15 2421 503 57 18
7 Eddie Guardado 564.2 4.89 2446 559 30 25
8 Mike Marshall 564 3.34 2386 508 75 19
9 Bill Castro 546.1 3.33 2320 564 45 9
10 Bryce Florie 485 4.34 2142 488 2 29
11 Bob McClure 477.2 3.54 2060 427 31 31
12 Antonio Osuna 449.2 3.58 1911 391 21 0
13 Jeff Montgomery 441 2.57 1832 370 115 1
14 Tom House 420 3.56 1763 386 33 12
15 Byung-Hyun Kim 419.2 3.37 1770 315 86 16
16 Billy Wagner 418.1 2.69 1692 281 181 0
T17 Frank DiPino 413.2 3.68 1757 376 47 6
T17 Al Holland 413.2 2.52 1736 343 44 10
19 Tippy Martinez 397 3.15 1689 343 45 2
20 Jamie Easterly 394 4.89 1783 440 12 28
21 Salome Barojas 381.1 3.85 1628 367 35 18
22 Tom Burgmeier 367.2 3.52 1579 369 32 0
23 Bob Apodaca 362 2.86 1505 312 26 11
24 Steve Farr 354 3.86 1503 327 11 19
25 J.C. Romero 350.2 4.49 1539 345 2 22
26 Ken Sanders 320 2.22 1293 263 61 0
27 Guy Hoffman 316.2 4.18 1361 334 3 31
28 Cliff Politte 314 4.50 1362 304 14 16
29 Max Leon 311 3.70 1346 315 13 13
T30 Rich Rodriguez 294.2 3.05 1236 268 4 2
T30 Marc Wilkins 294.2 4.28 1292 278 3 2
32 Doug Capilla 292.1 4.34 1287 273 0 31
33 Shigetoshi Hasegawa 291 3.93 1231 284 7 8
34 Phil Hennigan 280 4.28 1216 267 25 2
35 Dick Lange 277 4.45 1242 298 1 31
36 Luis Vizcaino 274.2 4.52 1164 246 7 0
37 John Riedling 274.1 4.13 1222 269 3 8
38 Victor Cruz 271 3.09 1144 218 37 0
39 Steve Mingori 269 2.94 1164 237 18 1
40 Richie Lewis 264.1 4.32 1206 251 2 3
41 Mike Venafro 249.2 4.11 1092 261 5 0
42 Steve Frey 241.1 3.69 1063 233 27 0
43 Gene Harris 241 4.71 1093 246 26 7
44 Mike Holtz 238.1 4.68 1078 242 3 0
45 Michael Tejera 236.1 5.06 1047 251 3 27
46 Scott Strickland 236 3.28 1012 197 20 0
47 Francisco Oliveras 235 3.71 965 221 5 18
48 Pablo Torrealba 234 3.31 1054 270 5 13
49 Enrique Romo 221.2 3.25 906 181 26 3
50 Vic Darensbourg 216.1 4.74 943 215 2 0
51 Britt Reames 205 5.00 920 205 0 26
52 Dave Giusti 203 3.33 852 194 26 13
53 Juan Rincon 202 3.70 860 177 2 3
54 Tony Castillo 201.2 3.97 877 218 2 6
55 Tom Dixon 199.2 4.33 876 225 1 24
56 Rudy Seanez 188.2 4.63 836 176 8 0
57 Cy Acosta 187 2.65 768 143 27 0
58 Dave Leonhard 176.1 3.01 742 161 3 9
59 Carlos Hernandez 170.2 4.54 765 173 0 33
60 Jose Parra 167.2 6.33 779 211 0 19
61 Eddie Bane 167 4.69 753 182 2 25
62 Eddie Watt 166.1 2.22 679 132 39 0
63 John Parrish 160 4.44 733 147 1 10
64 Fred Beene 158 2.05 637 132 4 5
65 Oscar Zamora 155 4.01 651 166 20 0
66 Chuck Hartenstein 152 4.97 651 154 12 0
67 Kip Young 150 3.84 621 154 0 20
68 Bill Atkinson 147.1 3.42 625 129 11 0
69 Julio Machado 147 3.12 623 115 6 0
70 Dave Sells 138 3.91 623 146 12 0
71 Mike Ignasiak 137 4.80 596 141 0 6
72 Dick Kelley 136 3.57 572 113 0 23
73 Larry Hardy 127 5.24 592 171 5 1
74 Joe Klink 124.2 4.04 547 131 3 0
75 Tim Davis 122.2 4.62 560 136 2 6
76 Len Whitehouse 115.2 4.67 516 119 4 1
77 Bill Wilkinson 113.1 4.13 469 97 12 2
78 Danny Murphy 112 4.66 493 110 9 0
79 Pete Richert 111.2 2.10 441 78 25 0
80 Barry Manuel 107.2 3.01 443 83 0 0
81 Rigo Beltran 105.2 4.34 465 109 1 5
82 Brandon Villafuerte 102.2 4.12 471 109 3 0

Only 82 guys (5'11" or less) since 1969 have pitched at least 100 innings before the age of 31.

49 of them were RH Pitchers like Graves.

Moving the age to older than 30 the list cuts almost in half and the total number falls to 44



INNINGS PITCHED IP ERA BFP H SV GS
1 Gene Garber 824.2 3.42 3512 843 133 0
2 Tom Burgmeier 818.1 3.00 3398 797 65 1
3 Mike Marshall 763.2 3.09 3212 722 103 5
4 Juan Berenguer 634 3.65 2699 539 31 13
5 Dave Giusti 601 3.05 2526 550 114 2
6 John Franco 579.2 3.18 2505 556 213 0
7 Steve Farr 470.1 2.79 1984 424 121 9
8 Tippy Martinez 437 3.73 1855 389 70 0
9 Jeff Montgomery 427.2 4.00 1805 415 189 0
10 Ray Sadecki 421.1 3.52 1825 428 3 28
11 Rheal Cormier 408.2 3.70 1715 369 2 0
12 Enrique Romo 381.1 3.56 1603 367 26 0
13 Shigetoshi Hasegawa 362.2 3.45 1521 341 26 0
14 Ramon Hernandez 358.2 2.79 1502 320 37 0
15 Rich Rodriguez 346 4.45 1514 374 4 0
16 Juan Pizarro 326.2 3.77 1420 298 9 28
17 Tony Castillo 325 3.90 1399 337 20 0
18 Steve Mingori 315 3.11 1327 307 24 1
19 Jeff Brantley 288.2 3.87 1223 251 115 0
20 Frank DiPino 286.1 4.05 1224 297 9 0
21 Tom Gordon 269.1 3.07 1102 204 54 0
22 Bob Shirley 255.2 4.22 1089 257 5 15
23 Al Holland 232.1 3.80 973 205 34 1
24 Orlando Pena 226 3.03 931 214 13 2
25 Jamie Easterly 217.1 4.14 961 223 2 8
26 Salomon Torres 213 3.85 898 215 2 16
27 Claude Raymond 207 4.65 908 234 25 0
28 Doug Creek 192.2 4.76 875 171 1 0
29 Lee Stange 186.2 4.15 836 199 5 15
30 Ken Sanders 185.1 3.69 788 175 21 0
31 Eddie Guardado 178.1 2.88 706 134 104 0
32 Mike Hampton 172.1 4.28 760 198 0 29
33 Pete Richert 170.2 2.79 716 137 18 0
34 Eddie Watt 161 3.52 695 145 18 0
35 Jack Lazorko 155.1 4.29 652 145 0 14
36 Jose Alvarez 152.2 2.95 653 132 5 0
37 Rudy Seanez 144.2 4.04 626 116 3 0
38 Ricky Bones 141.1 4.78 640 165 0 0
39 Pat Jarvis 138 3.85 591 131 2 6
40 Billy Wagner 134.1 2.01 517 83 65 0
41 Bob Humphreys 132.1 2.99 568 110 8 1
42 Fred Beene 130 5.47 575 140 4 1
43 Brian Shouse 120 3.15 508 113 1 0
44 Tom House 116 4.66 506 130 0 9


23 of the above pitchers were RH like Graves.

On August 7th Danny Graves turns 32 years old, as he gets older his comps come from a smaller pool.

The majority of Relievers have the ability to strike out players, Graves had the second worst strikeout vs the league average for all the relievers under the age of 30.



All relievers with below average strikeout rates 1969-2004

STRIKEOUTS/9 IP DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE GS
1 Dave Leonhard -2.02 3.52 5.54 9
2 Danny Graves -1.89 4.84 6.73 30
3 Dave Sells -1.88 3.20 5.08 0
4 Mike Venafro -1.66 4.65 6.31 0
5 Bill Castro -1.42 3.34 4.76 9
6 Tom Burgmeier -1.30 4.06 5.36 0
7 Chuck Hartenstein -1.27 4.68 5.94 0
8 Oscar Zamora -1.26 3.83 5.09 0
9 Danny Murphy -.97 4.66 5.63 0
10 Tom Dixon -.95 4.24 5.18 24
11 Steve Frey -.92 4.89 5.81 0
12 Salome Barojas -.85 4.15 5.01 18
13 Francisco Oliveras -.79 4.98 5.77 18
14 John Riedling -.77 5.97 6.74 8
15 Jose Parra -.75 5.53 6.28 19
16 Rich Rodriguez -.71 5.16 5.87 2
17 Joe Klink -.69 5.05 5.75 0
18 Guy Hoffman -.63 5.06 5.69 31
19 Eddie Bane -.58 4.31 4.89 25
20 Pablo Torrealba -.57 4.31 4.88 13
21 Dick Lange -.52 4.45 4.98 31
22 Kip Young -.27 4.26 4.53 20
23 Max Leon -.26 4.92 5.18 13
24 Michael Tejera -.24 6.47 6.72 27
25 Bob Apodaca -.23 4.90 5.13 11
26 Barry Manuel -.18 6.35 6.54 0
27 Shigetoshi Hasegawa -.18 6.19 6.37 8
28 Mike Ignasiak -.18 5.78 5.96 6
29 Fred Beene -.15 5.13 5.27 5
30 Tom House -.14 4.97 5.11 12
31 Marc Wilkins -.14 6.66 6.80 2
32 Larry Hardy -.14 4.96 5.10 1
33 Ken Sanders -.03 5.48 5.51 0



One thing that I found was that the RH reliever is less likely to be the reliever with the high K rate in both groups.
Representing 19.4% in the under 30 crowd and 14% in the over 30 crowd.

From where I sit it looks like Graves is on his way towards a career curve that his peers have already layed out for him. At best he might end up with a few years like Dave Giusti had in the late 70's. Past the age of 32 the list whittles down to 18 RH relievers with 100 IP. Advance that age to 35 then the list pares down to 9.

The leaders on both lists for mid 30 releivers in innings pitched are both 1970's workhorses. Garber and Marshall compiled their innings in an era that utilized relievers in a different manner, however both had around 100 less innings pitched than Graves by the age of 31. But they K'd more people than Graves and thus were able to help themseves out

In short I don't Graves problem is medical, it's natural and as much part of the game as diminishing bat speed.

Hoosier Red
05-26-2005, 01:16 PM
Stupid question.
How do the pitchers above 6'0'' compare?
How many of them were there before age 30, how many after 30.

I know it's a lot, but I'd like to hear how many more.

princeton
05-26-2005, 01:22 PM
I supported Danny's contract (princeton at his most astute), though I pointed out at the time the risk of the short RHPer. Since he was pitching well at the time, I thought that we'd get two more good years, but he faded faster

but I also figure that there's a physical cause, though it may not be one that is either medically detectable or solvable

westofyou
05-26-2005, 01:26 PM
Stupid question.
How do the pitchers above 6'0'' compare?
How many of them were there before age 30, how many after 30.

I know it's a lot, but I'd like to hear how many more.

Under age 30, 537 pitchers over 6 foot with 100 IP as a reliever.

Older than 30, 236 pitchers.

TRF
05-26-2005, 01:44 PM
woy, please write a book. i mean really, you have a flair.

KronoRed
05-26-2005, 01:47 PM
If he writes a book we might lose him around here..we don't want that :)

BuckU
05-26-2005, 02:37 PM
...just when I think I have heard every stat possible...



;)

Intersting info WOY

M2
05-26-2005, 02:57 PM
Reds defensive efficiency during Danny's years on the team, with Danny's corresponding ERA:

1998 - .701 (4th in NL), 3.32
1999 - .726 (1st in NL, best NL rating of the past decade), 3.08
2000 - .705 (1st in NL), 2.56
2001 - .686 (15th in NL), 4.15
2002 - .693 (10th in NL), 3.19
2003 - .689 (14th in NL), 5.33
2004 - .690 (12th in NL), 3.95
2005 - .672 (16th in NL), 7.36

So not only has Danny's stuff been decomposing, but he's been a defense dependent pitcher on a club that can't field. Great defense was a big part of what made his star rise in the first place.

GoReds
05-26-2005, 03:15 PM
Garber was more of a sidearm pitcher, IIRC. Was Marshall 3/4 or over the top?

IMO, if a pitcher throws sidearm, it really negates the effect that height plays. It would be interesting to know if sidearm relievers under 6'0 had longer careers.

westofyou
05-26-2005, 03:27 PM
Garber was more of a sidearm pitcher, IIRC. Was Marshall 3/4 or over the top?

IMO, if a pitcher throws sidearm, it really negates the effect that height plays. It would be interesting to know if sidearm relievers under 6'0 had longer careers.

Marshall was a screwball pitcher during his heyday, the earlier organizations he was in didn't want him to throw it, that probably helped extend his longevity and in turn introduced him as a different pitcher in his 30's. The same holds true for Fred Norman, who was a screwball pitcher that was not allowed to throw ith (Padres) when he came to the Reds Sparky encouraged it.

Juan Berenguer learned the split finger from Roger Craig and prolonged his career.