View Full Version : Is Reds pitching that much better?

05-17-2006, 10:10 AM
Reds have team ERA of 4.34 which is much better than last couple of seasons. But this may overstate the level of improvement.

Team OPS against is .798, second worst in NL.

Team BA against is .275, third worst.

56 HRs allowed, most in NL.

Where the Reds have improved is strikeouts (4th most in NL) and walks (fewest in NL).

Team ERA is somewhat misleading in Reds case because team makes so many errors that many runs allowed are declared "unearned." While team ERA is in top half of league, total runs allowed is well into the bottom half (6th worst).

We've seen a number of pitchers give up unearned runs (Harang last night, for example) where bad pitching contributed. Yet ERA reflects no runs allowed.

I think pitching is better, but perhaps not by that much.

05-17-2006, 10:23 AM
The bullpen is once again awful and all they did was exchange the jetsam for flotsam.

05-17-2006, 10:36 AM
Some rate stats:

ERA 06: 4.34
ERA 05: 5.15

K/9 06: 6.91
k/9 05: 6.00

BB/9 06: 2.95
BB/9 05: 3.09

HR/9 06: 1.45
HR/9 05: 1.34

I didn't realize that our BB rate was as low as it was last year. Given all those components, it's hard to see where the difference in ERA is coming from. But then...

Unearned runs/9 06: .67
Unearned runs/9 05: .43

Hello! We're allowing 50% more unearned runs this year. Given the sample sizes, that's pretty much explainable by variability -- but it's still a troubling trend. That said, we allowed nearly 5.6 runs/9 last year and we're allowing 5.1 runs/9 this year; so there is marked improvement, even including the defensive issues.

I'm guessing it really goes back to those walks. We're still allowing a ton of homers, but with fewer guys walked, those homers hurt less. Because we allow so many homers, a high percentage of the guys who reach base against us score. Therefore, reducing the number who reach base at all has a significant impact on the total runs scored.

05-17-2006, 01:45 PM
I think our staff is more intrested in "minimizing the damage" this season.

Less walks so that when they do give up a HR its minamal damage and overcomeable for the offense to get the runs back.

Falls City Beer
05-17-2006, 02:00 PM
Most of the bullpen and 60% of the rotation is either already awful (Williams) or setting himself up to be awful (Claussen, Ramirez). That 4.24 ERA is a fata morgana.

05-17-2006, 04:22 PM
Harang and Arroyo have made it look nice, but it's almost the same as last year..junk heap.

05-17-2006, 04:59 PM
One positive sign is that the pitching staff got off to a horrible start, so the 4.34 ERA has been the result of a downward trend. Or, just the opposite of our hitting.

05-17-2006, 05:36 PM
it seems like when are bullpen is decent our startin pitching stinks when our starting pitchign is good are bullpen stinks