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indyred
05-19-2006, 12:44 PM
Got the new Sports Illustrated and the have the PECOTA projection system for what the 2020 all-time HR leaders board will look like.......
765 Bonds
755 Hank
714 Babe
678 AROD
660 Mays
638 Dunn
637 Griffey
620 Pujols
589 Manny Ramirez
588 Sosa

If Arod was in a better HR friendley park, he would have a great shot for all-time leader.....IF he stayed in Texas, he would get to 800 easy...He was hitting over 50 every year he played there......I don't see JR getting that high...Dunn should do well long term, especially if he stays in GABP for a long time.....I don't see Bonds playing another year and topping out at around 725...

Safe at Home
05-19-2006, 12:46 PM
Just think how far Dunn would be without all the S/Os.....

BrooklynRedz
05-19-2006, 12:48 PM
Just think how far Dunn would be without all the S/Os.....

I'm assuming you're talking about Super Oranges. Well, it's been discussed and discounted by just about every expert that Dunn only eats tangerines. So there.

:evil:

beb30
05-19-2006, 12:50 PM
just think how far Griffey would be without all the injuries......

pedro
05-19-2006, 12:51 PM
I'm assuming you're talking about Super Oranges. Well, it's been discussed and discounted by just about every expert that Dunn only eats tangerines. So there.

:evil:

I thought he was talking about Strange Orangutans. We all know how Dunn hangs out with the wrong sort of folks.

billy117
05-19-2006, 01:07 PM
honestly i think that jr. will be higher than that and bonds will be lower like some else said around 725 and jr. i think will pass mays

RichRed
05-19-2006, 02:04 PM
Just think how far Dunn would be without all the S/Os.....

I really don't see what Stargazing Ocelots have to do with Dunn's home run prowess. Frankly, it sounds made up.

(Would make a pretty cool band name though.) ;)

redsfanfalcon
05-19-2006, 02:19 PM
Bonds over Aaron? I don't think so, what do you all think?

beb30
05-19-2006, 02:21 PM
Bonds over Aaron? I don't think so, what do you all think?

He can barely walk down the first base line, let alone in left field.......no way

Caveat Emperor
05-19-2006, 02:30 PM
Just think how far Dunn would be without all the S/Os.....

I know -- standing ovations make it difficult to concentrate when you're at the plate.

savafan
05-19-2006, 02:35 PM
I've seen Adam's Myspace.com page. When you have that many significant others, who cares about homeruns?

indyred
05-19-2006, 05:02 PM
One guy I might put in the 600 club is Jim Thome. I think he is 35 and right around 450 total homers. He may have 4-6 more good years as a DH if he stays healthy. Plays in a very friendley home run park......

pedro
05-19-2006, 05:13 PM
One guy I might put in the 600 club is Jim Thome. I think he is 35 and right around 450 total homers. He may have 4-6 more good years as a DH if he stays healthy. Plays in a very friendley home run park......

He has 446. I think he'll fall short, but not by much.

klw
05-19-2006, 05:13 PM
[QUOTE=indyred]Got the new Sports Illustrated and the have the PECOTA projection system for what the 2020 all-time HR leaders board will look like.......
765 Bonds
755 Hank
714 Babe
678 AROD
660 Mays
638 Dunn
637 Griffey
620 Pujols
589 Manny Ramirez
588 Sosa

QUOTE]

Where's Ray Olmedo?

pedro
05-19-2006, 05:16 PM
[QUOTE=indyred]Got the new Sports Illustrated and the have the PECOTA projection system for what the 2020 all-time HR leaders board will look like.......
765 Bonds
755 Hank
714 Babe
678 AROD
660 Mays
638 Dunn
637 Griffey
620 Pujols
589 Manny Ramirez
588 Sosa


Where's Ray Olmedo?

in Louisville where he belongs.

fisch11
05-19-2006, 05:20 PM
Pujols at 620....wow. SI not very generous. My opinion, he tops it all. Pujols and ARod go 1,2 either order. Of course, Jr. was "the guy" to break it all until his injuries piled up. So I say Pujols and ARod based on consistency and health of course. If they don't suffer too many injuries they'll average their HRs high enough to get it.

KronoRed
05-19-2006, 05:22 PM
I thought he was talking about Strange Orangutans. We all know how Dunn hangs out with the wrong sort of folks.
His drinking buddies.
http://www.rimbalodge.com/orangutan_lodge_images/orangutans.jpg

savafan
05-19-2006, 05:31 PM
Of course, there are always more variables that could come into play. Contraction, further expansion (hopefully not, but you never know), larger ballparks (cold happen someday), abolishing the DH (a dream), some of these guys spending time in a federal penitentiary (also a dream).

OnBaseMachine
05-19-2006, 05:31 PM
Pujols at 620....wow. SI not very generous. My opinion, he tops it all. Pujols and ARod go 1,2 either order. Of course, Jr. was "the guy" to break it all until his injuries piled up. So I say Pujols and ARod based on consistency and health of course. If they don't suffer too many injuries they'll average their HRs high enough to get it.

I guess they figure he is actually older than he is. I agree with it.

I could see Dunn reaching 650.

I agree with the top 10 except for one...I don't think Barroid will reach 765.

RedLegSuperStar
05-19-2006, 05:39 PM
Got the new Sports Illustrated and the have the PECOTA projection system for what the 2020 all-time HR leaders board will look like.......
765 Bonds
755 Hank
714 Babe
678 AROD
660 Mays
638 Dunn
637 Griffey
620 Pujols
589 Manny Ramirez
588 Sosa

If Arod was in a better HR friendley park, he would have a great shot for all-time leader.....IF he stayed in Texas, he would get to 800 easy...He was hitting over 50 every year he played there......I don't see JR getting that high...Dunn should do well long term, especially if he stays in GABP for a long time.....I don't see Bonds playing another year and topping out at around 725...

I'll take that list if only there's an astric by Bonds name. Personally I believe Pujols will be higher than Dunn.. Just for the simple fact that Pujols has so much command at the plate and hits for average.. while Dunn is more of a free swinger and bats around .100 less then Pujols.

OnBaseMachine
05-19-2006, 05:44 PM
I'll take that list if only there's an astric by Bonds name. Personally I believe Pujols will be higher than Dunn.. Just for the simple fact that Pujols has so much command at the plate and hits for average.. while Dunn is more of a free swinger and bats around .100 less then Pujols.

Free swingers don't walk 100+ times a year.

Adam Dunn is no where near a free swinger.

Cyclone792
05-19-2006, 05:46 PM
Pujols at 620....wow. SI not very generous. My opinion, he tops it all. Pujols and ARod go 1,2 either order. Of course, Jr. was "the guy" to break it all until his injuries piled up. So I say Pujols and ARod based on consistency and health of course. If they don't suffer too many injuries they'll average their HRs high enough to get it.

Pujols is only low because he's still too young and far away, and the projection system is trying to account for that. There's just a lot of time for any number of variables to kick in, such as injuries or whatever else that could diminish his playing time and/or erode his skills. If Pujols finishes the 2010 season with 400+ home runs, then I imagine the same projections run at that point would put him up near the 700 mark with ARod.

BTW, I agree with ARod and Pujols going 1 and 2, either order. They're by far the two best players in the game today, and so long as neither suffers a major injury or loses the desire to continue playing, they'll always have a starting spot in a lineup somewhere and should retain their hitting skills long enough to reach 755 or whatever number they'll need to reach.

ThatPitchIsDunn
05-19-2006, 05:53 PM
If Arod was in a better HR friendley park, he would have a great shot for all-time leader...


While Yankee Stadium isn't exactly Coors Field, Pay-rod is getting the luxury of facing some pretty horrid pitching year in and year out in the AL East. I think he tops 700 no problem and ends up DHing his way to the all time mark.

Just to put this in perspective how huge these numbers are, I looked up David Ortiz on a whim. Here's a guy a lot of people think as a big time masher with years ahead of him. He and Rodriguez are the same age. Ortiz has 190 homers and Arod has about 440. A 250 differential. I know Ortiz didn't come into his own until more recently, but it's mind-blowing stuff the numbers guys like Arod and Pujols are putting up.

pedro
05-19-2006, 06:01 PM
I wouldn't bet on Dunn having more HR's than Pujols.

terminator
05-19-2006, 09:12 PM
765 Bonds
755 Hank
714 Babe
678 AROD
660 Mays
638 Dunn
637 Griffey
620 Pujols
589 Manny Ramirez
588 Sosa


I think those estimates are a bit high for all the current players. Pujols and A-Rod are amazing players, but there are just too many variables (mostly negative to the hitter) that could hold their totals back. There's a reason that only four guys in the history of baseball have hit 660+. It requires top talent, right place & right time, good health, etc.

I don't think Bonds will get to Aaron. His knee and health are deteriorating too rapidly.

JEA
05-19-2006, 10:38 PM
I like to think a dark-horse candidate for the list would be Eric Chavez - if for no other reason because of his age. He's been a consistent 30-HR guy since he was 22. At 28, his next 3-4 years are key. If he can inch up to a 40-HR guy, he's got a great shot at 600. With his 10 homers this year, he has exactly 200.

And what about Andruw Jones? He's only 29 and his more than 300. After last season's total of 51 and a nice start this season, he too could be a surprise when all is said and done.

Pujols and A-Rod are locks as far as I'm concerned. In fact, I truly believe A-Rod will be the all-time leader when he's finished.

Dunn is gonna be fun to watch, too. Hopefully, we see him breaking Bench's club record on his way to 600.

NastyBoy
05-20-2006, 04:20 AM
Two factors that will come into play are the ballparks. It seems that the new Busch Stadium is hitter friendly which will help Pujols numbers. I am curious how the New Yankee Stadium will affect ARods numbers.

RedLegSuperStar
05-20-2006, 09:08 AM
Free swingers don't walk 100+ times a year.

Adam Dunn is no where near a free swinger.

I guess free swingers don't lead the league in strikeouts every year either?

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2006, 09:14 AM
I guess free swingers don't lead the league in strikeouts every year either?

Free swinger is a hitter who swings at a ton of bad pitches and rarely walks. Adam Dunn doesn't swing at too many bad pitches, and of course walks around 120 times a year.

BTW, who gives a crap about strikeouts? I don't and you shouldn't.

RedLegSuperStar
05-20-2006, 09:44 AM
Free swinger is a hitter who swings at a ton of bad pitches and rarely walks. Adam Dunn doesn't swing at too many bad pitches, and of course walks around 120 times a year.

BTW, who gives a crap about strikeouts? I don't and you shouldn't.

I was comparing him and Pujols

Hoosier Red
05-20-2006, 09:51 AM
What I liked was Dunn being one ahead of JR.
I could see Dunn finishing a season tied with JR. Then coming back for one HR the next season so he could needle him for the rest of their retirements.

Benny-Distefano
05-20-2006, 10:38 AM
I really don't see what Stargazing Ocelots have to do with Dunn's home run prowess. Frankly, it sounds made up.

(Would make a pretty cool band name though.) ;)



Actually, I believe he is refering to Dunn's Scathing Odor. He has now seen a doctor about it and is on the road to "full olefactory recovery."

smith288
05-21-2006, 10:12 AM
How many of these homeruns would have been productive out Sacrifice flies??? Thats the question that needs to be answered in order to justify him being labeled as a great ballplayer. You know, the little things.

paintmered
05-21-2006, 10:14 AM
Indeed he would have more homers without all those Sacrafice Outs. :D

I guess we can start calling him Abraham Dunn...

redsfan30
05-21-2006, 11:33 AM
No way Dunn or Junior are ahead of Pujols when it's all over with.

Mario-Rijo
05-21-2006, 12:31 PM
No way Dunn or Junior are ahead of Pujols when it's all over with.


Don't bet on it, with the assorted nagging injuries Albert has had in his short time he may be a guy that simply fizzles out in his 30's. Power wise. Right now I think he is battling a back issue, bad backs will completely rob you of power.