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View Full Version : Does anyone shed a tear whenever they see the pitching line for Scott Kazmir?



jfleur87
05-21-2006, 08:22 PM
Cry, or shed a tear, or punch a wall whenever they are watching espn and then see on the bottom line the pitching line of Scott Kazmir

He went 7 innings, struck out 11, and got his 7th win of the year. I wasn't too concerned at the time of the draft when the reds didn't go after him. I forget who they got that year (Gruler?). But now, thinking that the reds passed on him is almost gut wrenching.

Come on Homer, I hope he pans out

Phhhl
05-21-2006, 08:46 PM
Under that ownership, the Reds had virtually no chance of signing Kazmir. Boras was his agent, and a vulture like Boras would have approached negotiations with this club with a redder butt than normal. Everybody knew the Reds were cheap.

Who knows what Chris Grueler could have been. Without the injury, maybe he's here right now with Arroyo and Harang. I can't isolate that particular decision as a coulda/woulda. It was just the byproduct of a seriously flawed organization.

kyred14
05-21-2006, 08:50 PM
Heck no, he's on all 3 of my fantasy teams. :D

Aronchis
05-21-2006, 08:52 PM
Under that ownership, the Reds had virtually no chance of signing Kazmir. Boras was his agent, and a vulture like Boras would have approached negotiations with this club with a redder a** than normal. Everybody knew the Reds were cheap.

Who knows what Chris Grueler could have been. Without the injury, maybe he's here right now with Arroyo and Harang. I can't isolate that particular decision as a coulda/woulda. It was just the byproduct of a seriously flawed organization.

It wasn't money however, the Reds legitly considered Kazmir, he wasn't going to school either, Adam Dunn knew him personally and said he would help with negotiations. He would have been in house by 2003. Gruler was just THAT loved and Jimbo broke the tie. There was also Prince Fielder, Hamels and Francis as well.

That Kazmir fell to 15 was a laugher as his polish and stuff were top 3 good. The Pirates taint looking to good either.

jfleur87
05-21-2006, 08:52 PM
nice call w/ kazmir on your team, i'm sittin pretty with brandon webb and pedro on mine, plus my closers of lidge, k-rod, and izzy. you winning your league?

Yachtzee
05-21-2006, 09:06 PM
Under that ownership, the Reds had virtually no chance of signing Kazmir. Boras was his agent, and a vulture like Boras would have approached negotiations with this club with a redder a** than normal. Everybody knew the Reds were cheap.

Who knows what Chris Grueler could have been. Without the injury, maybe he's here right now with Arroyo and Harang. I can't isolate that particular decision as a coulda/woulda. It was just the byproduct of a seriously flawed organization.

I don't think the Reds have ever had a problem dealing with Boras. In fact, I believe they have signed Boras clients in the past. Unfortunately, it has sometimes involved creative solutions that end up biting them in the behind in the past (See Espinosa, David and Sardinha, Dane).

KronoRed
05-21-2006, 09:08 PM
Nope, if we'd drafted him he'd be on arm surgery 3 by now.

edabbs44
05-21-2006, 10:19 PM
Nope, if we'd drafted him he'd be on arm surgery 3 by now.
That's something I think about all the time. Do the Reds draft people who are on the brink of arm surgery or do they run them into the ground when they get to the pros?
The Reds have had "bad luck" with HS pitchers (Gruler and Howington) and college pitchers (Gardner and Pauly).
The one thing I did read b/f the draft was that Gruler was a big righty who was better built for the long haul and Kazmir was a small lefty who was predicted to break down. Guess that couldn't have been more ironic.

flyer85
05-21-2006, 10:44 PM
I'm pretty sure Kazmir was not a Boras client.

Cedric
05-21-2006, 10:50 PM
No, he was. He would have been the first pick without a doubt.

edabbs44
05-21-2006, 10:55 PM
No, he was. He would have been the first pick without a doubt.
I don't think so...Upton went 2 and he was a much better prospect than Kazmir. The Pirates has $ issues and went with Bullington #1.

cincinnati chili
05-21-2006, 11:45 PM
Kazmir would have gone top 5 for sure, if MLB had slotted signing bonuses like the NBA. Most teams would have taken Upton that year (2002).

cincinnati chili
05-21-2006, 11:48 PM
Here are Jim Callis and Allan Simpson's top 100 for Baseball America, finalized days before the draft:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/top100index.html

Top 100 Prospects
Compiled by Allan Simpson and Jim Callis.

Baseball America's top 100 list identifies the top draft-eligible prospects in the country. It is not intended to represent the actual order in which players will be selected.

1. B.J. Upton, ss Video Clip

2. Scott Kazmir, lhp Video Clip

3. Bryan Bullington, rhp

4. Adam Loewen, lhp

5. Jason Neighborgall, rhp

6. Bobby Brownlie, rhp

7. Chris Gruler, rhp Video Clip

8. John Mayberry Jr., 1b Video Clip

9. Cole Hamels, lhp

10. Zack Greinke, rhp Video Clip

11. Jeremy Guthrie, rhp

12. Scott Moore, ss Video Clip

13. Jeremy Hermida, of

14. Jeff Baker, 3b

15. Jeff Francis, lhp

16. Clint Everts, rhp-ss Video Clip

17. Joe Saunders, lhp

18. Joseph Blanton, rhp

19. Russ Adams, ss-2b

20. Denard Span, of Video Clip

21. Matt Whitney, 3b

22. Jeff Francoeur, of

23. Mark McCormick, rhp Video Clip

24. Prince Fielder, 1b Video Clip

25. Luke Hagerty, lhp

26. Royce Ring, lhp

27. Drew Meyer, ss

28. Sergio Santos, ss Video Clip

29. Kevin Jepsen, rhp

30. Darrell Rasner, rhp

31. Anthony Reyes, rhp

32. Jon Lester, lhp

33. Brent Clevlen, of

34. Nick Swisher, 1b-of

35. Khalil Greene, ss

36. Brian Dopirak, 1b Video Clip

37. Dave Bush, rhp

38. Matt Cain, rhp

39. Jeff Clement, c Video Clip

40. Brian Slocum, rhp

41. Blair Johnson, rhp

42. Micah Owings, rhp Video Clip

43. Brian McCann, c Video Clip

44. Adam Donachie, c Video Clip

45. John McCurdy, ss

46. James Loney, lhp

47. Greg Miller, lhp

48. Derick Grigsby, rhp

49. Eric Thomas, rhp

50. Micah Schilling, 2b Video Clip

51. Wardell Starling, rhp-of Video Clip

52. Zach Hammes, rhp Video Clip

53. Ben Fritz, rhp-c

54. Zach Segovia, rhp

55. Jason Pridie, of

56. Jake Blalock, ss

57. Travis Ishikawa, 1b-of

58. Nick Bourgeois, lhp

59. Trevor Hutchinson, rhp

60. Mike Esposito, rhp

61. Steve Doetsch, of

62. Jonathan Broxton, rhp Video Clip

63. Michael Johnson, 1b

64. Tyler Parker, c

65. Robbie Sovie, of

66. Bill Murphy, lhp

67. Rich Hill, lhp

68. Jason Cooper, of

69. Romelio Lopez, rhp

70. Chris Snyder, c

71. Brandon Weeden, rhp Video Clip

72. Steven White, rhp

73. Chadd Blasko, rhp

74. Kris Harvey, rhp

75. Justin Jones, lhp

76. Christian Madson, rhp Video Clip

77. Taber Lee, ss

78. Mark Romanczuk, lhp Video Clip

79. Larry Broadway, 1b

80. Jesse Crain, rhp

81. Matt Farnum, rhp

82. Rory Shortell, rhp

83. Dan Meyer, lhp

84. Cory Shafer, 1b Video Clip

85. Jesse English, lhp

86. Xavier Arroyo, of

87. Sean White, rhp

88. Curtis Granderson, of

89. Brandon Jones, 3b-of

90. Alex Hart, rhp

91. Brett Nyquist, lhp

92. Forrest Beverly, lhp

93. Aaron Coonrod, rhp

94. Tom Wilhelmsen, rhp Video Clip

95. Clay Dirks, lhp

96. Elijah Dukes, of Video Clip

97. Justin Maureau, lhp

98. O.J. King, rhp

99. Charlie Morton, rhp

100. David Jensen, 1b

jfleur87
05-22-2006, 01:24 AM
that list makes me sick to my stomach

Royals Fan
05-22-2006, 02:28 AM
Wow that list is full of young players that are up right now.

dougdirt
05-22-2006, 02:30 AM
I see that list and notice Jason Neighborgall....boy did he have an interesting statline last year in his first year as a pro....
22.2 innings pitched.
45 walks.
29 strikeouts.
That is 17.87 bb/9 and 11.51 k/9

cincinnati chili
05-23-2006, 02:05 AM
Neighborgall is an interesting story.

First of all, Baseball America was waaaaaaaay off. He was not drafted fifth in 2002. He was drafted 208th (7th round).

I know he was a Boras client, so maybe that scared some people off. But maybe teams actually figured out that the guy had zero control. He was pretty awful at Georgia tech (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/N/jason-neighborgall.shtml) and I think he should consider himself lucky that the DBacks took him in the third round in 2005.

NastyBoy
05-23-2006, 02:57 AM
Cry, or shed a tear, or punch a wall whenever they are watching espn and then see on the bottom line the pitching line of Scott Kazmir

He went 7 innings, struck out 11, and got his 7th win of the year. I wasn't too concerned at the time of the draft when the reds didn't go after him. I forget who they got that year (Gruler?). But now, thinking that the reds passed on him is almost gut wrenching.

Come on Homer, I hope he pans out

That really does not upset me... what does upset me is the fact that the NY Mets were willing to trade their number one pitching prospect Kazmir for a mediocre starting pitcher. Could we have traded Corey Lidle for Kazmir? Thats what pisses me off.

KronoRed
05-23-2006, 03:00 AM
Could we have traded Corey Lidle for Kazmir? Thats what pisses me off.
That would assume Dan O would even ask for Kazmir ;)

NastyBoy
05-23-2006, 03:18 AM
That would assume Dan O would even ask for Kazmir ;)

:obrien: I could have traded for a number one starter and maybe saved my job? DOOHHH!:bang:

Outshined_One
05-23-2006, 04:21 AM
Neighborgall is an interesting story.

First of all, Baseball America was waaaaaaaay off. He was not drafted fifth in 2002. He was drafted 208th (7th round).

I know he was a Boras client, so maybe that scared some people off. But maybe teams actually figured out that the guy had zero control. He was pretty awful at Georgia tech (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/N/jason-neighborgall.shtml) and I think he should consider himself lucky that the DBacks took him in the third round in 2005.

It's a ranking, not an overall draft order.

Neighborgall and McCormick both ended up in the 2005 draft, as memory serves. Both guys were pretty comparable at the time.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 08:29 AM
It's a ranking, not an overall draft order.

Neighborgall and McCormick both ended up in the 2005 draft, as memory serves. Both guys were pretty comparable at the time.
I think Neighborgall had arm issues, if I remember correctly.

cincinnati chili
05-25-2006, 01:51 AM
It's a ranking, not an overall draft order.



LOL. I know THAT. I'm saying their projection was way off. This was right before the draft, and I find it amusing a guy they projected to go in the top 5 fell out of the top 200.

TOBTTReds
05-25-2006, 02:27 AM
LOL. I know THAT. I'm saying their projection was way off. This was right before the draft, and I find it amusing a guy they projected to go in the top 5 fell out of the top 200.

Chili, I see what you are saying, but the BA list was not a projection either. Those were rankings of best players available, period. Not a predicted draft order or anything like that. They were saying he was in the top 5 players in the country, not going in the top 5 picks, let alone first round, but he was that good is what they are saying. If they were to project where he was going, I'm sure they would have had him dropped lower due to all the factors listed above.

Outshined_One
05-25-2006, 04:01 AM
Chili, I see what you are saying, but the BA list was not a projection either. Those were rankings of best players available, period. Not a predicted draft order or anything like that. They were saying he was in the top 5 players in the country, not going in the top 5 picks, let alone first round, but he was that good is what they are saying. If they were to project where he was going, I'm sure they would have had him dropped lower due to all the factors listed above.

Correct you are sir. Here's their final Mock Draft (http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/handicap060302.html) from 2002.

1. Pirates: Bryan Bullington.
2. Devil Rays: B.J. Upton.
3. Reds: Scott Kazmir.
4. Orioles: Adam Loewen.
5. Expos: Clint Everts.
6. Royals: Zack Greinke.
7. Brewers: Chris Gruler.
8. Tigers: Scott Moore.
9. Rockies: Denard Span.
10. Rangers: Jeremy Guthrie.
11. Marlins: Jeremy Hermida.
12. Angels: Joe Saunders.
13. Padres: Khalil Greene.
14. Blue Jays: Jeff Francis.
15. Mets: Nick Swisher.
16. Athletics: Russ Adams.
17. Phillies: Matt Whitney.
18. White Sox: Joe Blanton.
19. Dodgers: John Mayberry Jr.
20. Twins: Cole Hamels.
21. Cubs: Bobby Brownlie.
22. Indians: Prince Fielder.
23. Braves: Luke Hagerty.
24. Athletics: Darrell Rasner.
25. Giants: Ben Fritz.
26. Athletics: Royce Ring.
27. Diamondbacks: Drew Meyer.
28. Mariners: Jon Lester.
29. Astros: James Loney.
30. Athletics: Chris Snyder.

And yes, this was the infamous Moneyball draft.

dabvu2498
05-25-2006, 09:25 AM
Joe Blanton would be nice to have right now too.

cincinnati chili
05-25-2006, 09:37 AM
Chili, I see what you are saying, but the BA list was not a projection either. Those were rankings of best players available, period. Not a predicted draft order or anything like that. They were saying he was in the top 5 players in the country, not going in the top 5 picks, let alone first round, but he was that good is what they are saying. If they were to project where he was going, I'm sure they would have had him dropped lower due to all the factors listed above.

my bad.

REDREAD
05-25-2006, 10:26 AM
Under that ownership, the Reds had virtually no chance of signing Kazmir. Boras was his agent, and a vulture like Boras would have approached negotiations with this club with a redder butt than normal. Everybody knew the Reds were cheap.


Actually, Kazmir ended up signing for less than Gruler did.
Now it's true that Kazmir slid some slots in the draft because of the Boras connection, but that's pretty good evidence that Kazmir would've eventually caved in and taken slot money (what we gave Gruler). It's not as if Kazmir held out or threatened to pull a JD Drew with the Mets. IIRC, Kazmir signed fairly quickly.

REDREAD
05-25-2006, 10:29 AM
Nope, if we'd drafted him he'd be on arm surgery 3 by now.

Well, if you're going to have that defeatist attitude, why even bother drafting any pitchers? :) I find it hard to believe that our coaching or workload in the minors is that different from every other team. Now, I believe there may be a problem that the people running the Reds draft may pick higher injury risks, but it's a bit silly to assume Kazmir would've gotten hurt.

REDREAD
05-25-2006, 10:31 AM
:obrien: I could have traded for a number one starter and maybe saved my job? DOOHHH!:bang:

:obrien: "What are you complaining about, I got you two number one starters: Milton and Dave Williams" [see my sig] :laugh:

edabbs44
05-25-2006, 03:24 PM
How about Sowers?

AAA stats:
6-1 with a 0.94 ERA and a .220 BAA in 10 games.

What could have been.

paulrichjr
05-25-2006, 03:34 PM
I remember being very ill about that draft choice that day because I had expected it to be Kazmir. Then I heard his interview on MLB.com and got even sicker. He was interviewed a few hours later and stated that he couldn't wait to pitch against the Reds and show them how they had messed up not drafting him. The only team that I remember him mentioning was the Reds because he seemed to think that they were going to draft him based upon his conversations with them.

I think about that everytime I see another W for him...

Z-Fly
05-25-2006, 04:05 PM
Yes, I cry every night about the 1st round picks of the past.

princeton
05-25-2006, 04:11 PM
Rick Peterson. Jim Duquette. all Mets' fans.

cincyinco
05-25-2006, 04:17 PM
I don't shed a tear..

I do get fairly enraged though. Imagine the Reds with Kazmir and Sowers in their systems..

cincinnati chili
05-26-2006, 09:10 AM
How about Sowers?

AAA stats:
6-1 with a 0.94 ERA and a .220 BAA in 10 games.

What could have been.

I don't believe that one can necessarily assume Sowers (or any high school pitcher) would have been the same guy in pro ball, if he'd skipped college. Even if Jeremy is unique, which he clearly is, he has to have learned something pitching 3 years in the Southeastern Conference, and multiple summers against wood bats in the Cape Cod League. He wouldn't have gotten that if he signed with the Reds right out of high school.

For all we know, the Reds would have thrown that "pitch to contact" garbage at him in short season ball, then rushed him to the big leagues after two good starts in Double A - a la Lance Davis.

blumj
05-26-2006, 09:24 AM
I probably will tonight, but that's not what you're talking about. Damn those stupid Mets.

Chip R
05-26-2006, 01:52 PM
Rick Peterson. Jim Duquette. all Mets' fans.

Yep. In this case tis worse to have loved and lost than to ever have loved at all.

TeamBoone
05-28-2006, 04:32 PM
Sunday, May 28, 2006

'02 decision haunts club
E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

In hindsight, Kazmir - not Gruler - became prized starter
It was about this time four years ago when the Reds gathered their baseball brain trust in Cincinnati to do a little comparison shopping.

They held the third pick in the 2002 draft. They were going to pick a pitcher - one who hopefully could develop into the No. 1 starter the franchise so desperately needed.

They zeroed in on two high school pitchers: right-hander Chris Gruler and left-hander Scott Kazmir.

The decision they made - to pick Gruler over Kazmir - was arguably the worst the franchise has made in the last five, or maybe the last 10, years.

Kazmir is the ace of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays' staff. He is 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA. He has pitched 691/3 innings this season.

Gruler has pitched 77 innings total in his four years in the Reds' minor leagues. He's currently in extended spring training trying to rehab from shoulder problems. He threw a two-inning stint the other day is Sarasota, Fla. His fastball topped out at 86 mph.

The decision to pick Gruler ultimately was made by then-general manager Jim Bowden.

Bowden, as was his style, made a show of the decision. He brought both Gruler and Kazmir in to throw. And he brought a crowd to watch them.

"There must have been 20 people out there watching," said Mark Berry, then the bullpen catcher, now the third base coach. "Johnny Bench, Jim Bowden, Bob Boone. All the big scouts."

Berry caught Kazmir and Gruler.

Both were impressive.

"You couldn't go wrong with either one," Berry said. "Gruler was a big, strong kid, a live arm."

Bench said Gruler's changeup and curveball were better than Tom Seaver's.

"Kazmir had a quick, electric arm," Berry said. "He was a smaller guy. I remember somebody saying if he doesn't work out as a starter, at worst he's a Billy Wagner type."

Grant Griesser, the assistant director of player development, saw Kazmir but not Gruler.

"He was impressive," Griesser said. "Great arm."

Both Berry and Griesser remember the split being about 50-50.

"Guys I respect were mad we weren't taking Kazmir," Griesser said. "It was split. Jim made the final decision."

Adam Dunn was shocked when the Reds didn't pick Kazmir. Kazmir, like Dunn, grew up in the Houston area. Kazmir's father, in fact, worked for Dunn's dad.

"I thought we were going to take him," Dunn said. "When you get a lefty that throws 95, 96 ... From a player's standpoint, I couldn't see how they could pass him up."

The Reds took Gruler, and Kazmir slipped all the way to 14th. Money issues were part of that.

Gruler signed quickly for $2.5 million - still a Reds record.

"We felt Gruler and Kazmir were the two best pitchers in the draft," Bowden said at the time. "We were split as an organization on who to take."

Bowden went on to say the Reds took Gruler because they thought he had a higher "ceiling," baseball talk for long-range potential.

"A philosophy I've had in the draft is that we want the player with the highest ceiling, biggest reward: Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Chris Gruler," Bowden said. "This guy has a chance to be a No. 1. And it's so hard to get a No. 1 in this game."

The Mets ended up trading Kazmir to Tampa Bay.

He seems destined to be a No. 1 for a long time. His name and the Cy Young Award have been mentioned in the same sentence.

Gruler is a long way from even pitching in the minors again. There are a lot of people in the Reds' organization who think he was hurt when they drafted him, although his first year in the system was the only one when he was reasonably healthy.

He made 11 starts in 2002, the year he was drafted. He has made only nine since. He had major shoulder surgery in 2003 and had another shoulder surgery last year.

He has been on perpetual rehab the last four years.

If he finishes the season with Single-A Dayton, it will be considered a victory.

Would things be different if Gruler hadn't gotten hurt? Sure. But it's impossible to say if he would have been as good as Kazmir.

But you can say with a great deal of certainty that if the Reds had picked Kazmir, they wouldn't still be searching for a No. 1 starter.


http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060528/COL09/605280362/1082/SPT0102

Hondo
05-29-2006, 05:03 PM
Why not trade for him now? Any ideas? Are the D-Rays looking to move him?

JaredRoberts.com

vaticanplum
05-31-2006, 10:34 AM
We're not the only ones with regrets...very interesting article here I thought:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/31/sports/baseball/31kazmir.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

NastyBoy
06-01-2006, 02:47 AM
:obrien: "What are you complaining about, I got you two number one starters: Milton and Dave Williams" [see my sig] :laugh:

N1

:obrien: And they are the cornerstones of the rotation.:confused:

princeton
06-01-2006, 10:19 AM
I like how Duquette shifts the blame to nine other guys, and makes it look like he had no say whatsoever. Nice try.

I've worked (very past tense) in places where guys were terrified to say no. I'm sure that part was true, but guys like Duquette create that atmosphere. I'd never hire a guy from a place like that. Which means that I would never hire myself, which is darned unfair since I did say no, but it's just such a great rule of thumb that I'd have to deny myself.

EddieMilner
06-01-2006, 02:54 PM
Does anyone else feel that the baseball draft would be a better way to get prospects if the players had to declare, and once they did they lost their amateur status? It seems that doing so, the teams would ensure that all drafted prospects would do absolutely NOTHING for a year, instead of running to college. Any thoughts on this?

FoReel
06-01-2006, 04:41 PM
You really can't be mad when u see a star pitch, when u could of got him in the draft, because stars are not always out of the first round, because if i rembere right mike piazza was the last pick of the draft and he got drafted as a favor hate him or love him, he has been one of the best hitting catchers in the game.