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reds44
05-22-2006, 08:31 PM
Marlins gauging interest for Willis
Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks all interested in acquiring left-hander

The Florida Marlins are reportedly shopping Dontrelle Willis, and the New York Yankees, New York Mets and Arizona Diamondbacks are among teams that are interested, published reports say.

A Yankees scout watched the left-hander pitch Sunday against the Devil Rays, the New York Post reported Monday.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have talked with the Marlins about acquiring Willis (1-5) to bolster their rotation, the Arizona Republic reported on its website Monday. Arizona doesn't expect anything to happen soon, the newspaper reported.

The Marlins, who cut their payroll from $60 million to $15 million this offseason, are expected to seek prospects instead of major leaguers in any deal for Willis, who finished second in the NL Cy Young voting last season.

Willis, 24, will make $4.35 million this season.

MLB.com reported that most in the Marlins clubhouse don't expect the team to trade Willis, however.

The trading deadline is July 31.
2006 NBC Sports.com


http://msnbc.msn.com/id/12917997/

SeeinRed
05-22-2006, 08:57 PM
Although I would love to see something happen to get a pitcher like Willis, there is a reason the Reds aren't named in the article... Its just not going to happen. The Marlins will want too much for him.

Newman4
05-22-2006, 09:03 PM
He'll be overpriced to begin with and the Reds can't match prospects with the Mets and DBacks. Forget it.

Red Heeler
05-22-2006, 09:09 PM
The Reds would have to gut an already skim milk thin farm system to get a guy like Willis. The Reds should be sellers rather than buyers come July.

Matt700wlw
05-22-2006, 09:10 PM
The Reds would have to gut an already skim milk thin farm system to get a guy like Willis. The Reds should be sellers rather than buyers come July.

Not if they're contenders...

IslandRed
05-22-2006, 09:18 PM
The Marlins have already cut payroll to the point where the whole thing is probably covered by what they get in revenue sharing. I think they are, pardon the pun, fishing -- trying to create a market where a talent-rich team like the Diamondbacks will overpay for him. And if it doesn't happen, they'll keep him.

deltachi8
05-22-2006, 09:23 PM
Not if they're contenders...

I agree with your argument, Matt, but dont think it will be the case. Just not enough pitching.

Matt700wlw
05-22-2006, 09:24 PM
I agree with your argument, Matt, but dont think it will be the case. Just not enough pitching.

I hope you're wrong, but we have been down this road before...

reds44
05-22-2006, 09:30 PM
I agree with your argument, Matt, but dont think it will be the case. Just not enough pitching.
So then why is trading for Willis a bad idea?

M2
05-22-2006, 09:35 PM
The Reds would have to gut an already skim milk thin farm system to get a guy like Willis. The Reds should be sellers rather than buyers come July.

Dontrelle's 24 years-old. IMO, he'd be worth the gutting.

IslandRed
05-22-2006, 09:50 PM
So then why is trading for Willis a bad idea?

We're talking about gutting the farm system for one guy. That's something an organization does when it's Our Year and you need that guy to get over the top and the heck with the future. Is that where we are? I don't think so. Can you honestly look at our club and say Dontrelle Willis is going to put us in the World Series?

Edit to speak to M2's post: Well, I guess it depends on exactly which players we're talking about. And how good the June draft looks. If I have confidence that there'll be more good prospects where they came from, I'd be less reluctant to turn loose of what we have.

Spitball
05-22-2006, 09:52 PM
Dontrelle's 24 years-old. IMO, he'd be worth the gutting.

Exactly. It has been how long since the Reds produced a Willis type pitcher? Maybe Don Gullett in 1970? Take a chance, as the Reds did in 1999 when they went after Neagle and Vaughn, and try to generate interest in the team. Willis would also pack the house every time he'd pitch. Extra money could help the organization from top to bottom.

And, if the Reds are out of it in July, Willis could be dangled for an impressive package, though I'd rather keep him.

BoCcc2832
05-22-2006, 09:54 PM
Notice which teams are asking for Willis: both NY teams and the Arizona D'Backs. Notice as well which teams are asking for Roger Clemens: both NY teams, Boston and Texas. My point? They can all write the big paycheck for Dontrelle. The Reds can't. That's another reason they won't pursue Willis.

KronoRed
05-22-2006, 10:13 PM
We don't have the chips for that game

Highlifeman21
05-22-2006, 10:19 PM
We don't have the chips for that game

Even if we did, I don't think Willis is honestly worth it. His mechanics, or lack thereof scare the bejesus out of me, and he's more of the parlor trick or circus act variety at this point in time.

If we were to trade away the farm for him, what kind of ridiculous pressure would we put on this kid to be our savior? I don't think he'd be able to handle that kind of treatment.

Red Heeler
05-22-2006, 10:38 PM
Dontrelle's 24 years-old. IMO, he'd be worth the gutting.

If you are talking about only players not on the major league roster, then I agree with you. However, I believe that it would take EdE, Deno, and Homer to get the Fish to sniff at a deal. That is simply too high of a price, IMO. If they would take something along the lines of Deno, Homer, Travis Chick, and BJ Syzalphabet, then I'd jump all over that deal.

Spitball
05-22-2006, 10:46 PM
Even if we did, I don't think Willis is honestly worth it. His mechanics, or lack thereof scare the bejesus out of me, and he's more of the parlor trick or circus act variety at this point in time.

I so disagree. This guy is the most athletic pitcher in the league. He has four top notch pitches he can throw for strikes.


If we were to trade away the farm for him, what kind of ridiculous pressure would we put on this kid to be our savior? I don't think he'd be able to handle that kind of treatment.

Huh!?!? He pitches for the Marlins. He won 26.5 percent of his team's wins last year.

reds44
05-22-2006, 11:24 PM
If you are talking about only players not on the major league roster, then I agree with you. However, I believe that it would take EdE, Deno, and Homer to get the Fish to sniff at a deal. That is simply too high of a price, IMO. If they would take something along the lines of Deno, Homer, Travis Chick, and BJ Syzalphabet, then I'd jump all over that deal.
Deno and Homer I could deal with, EE would be tougher. It would be nice not have to give up EE in any deal. I am willing to give up more then Deno and homer, but I don't know about EE.

edabbs44
05-22-2006, 11:31 PM
For there to be any talk about a deal involving Willis, there would have to be buy in from ownership about a long term contract. He will get $10 mil per when FA comes a-knockin.

RedsMan3203
05-22-2006, 11:36 PM
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

TheBigLebowski
05-22-2006, 11:41 PM
Chris Denorfia would void this deal in a second. He'd use his Superman powers to spin the world backwards until the date when this trade was consummated and take his name off, replacing it with that of MIKE FREAKING BURNS.

Also, he'd give Mike Burns gonorrhea.

TheBigLebowski
05-22-2006, 11:43 PM
In all seriousness...any trade idea involving Homer Bailey on our end that results in us getting a guy like Dontrelle Willis in return is LUDICROUS. INSANE. D.U.M.B.

Furthermore, Chris Denorfia just hit a 3 that put the Spurs up by 3. Bad trade all around.

reds44
05-22-2006, 11:49 PM
Furthermore, Chris Denorfia just hit a 3 that put the Spurs up by 3. Bad trade all around.
:laugh:

traderumor
05-23-2006, 12:00 AM
Willis worries me with the Pro Player effect that shines up their pitcher's numbers. His low K numbers...I dunno.

M2
05-23-2006, 12:10 AM
In all seriousness...any trade idea involving Homer Bailey on our end that results in us getting a guy like Dontrelle Willis in return is LUDICROUS. INSANE. D.U.M.B.

Well, for the Marlins sure, but I'm not interested in protecting their interests.


If you are talking about only players not on the major league roster, then I agree with you. However, I believe that it would take EdE, Deno, and Homer to get the Fish to sniff at a deal. That is simply too high of a price, IMO. If they would take something along the lines of Deno, Homer, Travis Chick, and BJ Syzalphabet, then I'd jump all over that deal.

IMO, to capitalize on the Dontrelle window (were the Reds to trade for him) the team would have to keep EdE in the fold. They'd need that kind of discount offensive production to offset the cost of keeping a premium pitcher.

Perhaps Brandon Claussen and/or Elizardo Ramirez would interest the Fish. Joey Votto is another guy who might draw some attention from that franchise. If only Miguel Perez weren't seemingly making a legal application to change his name to Mendoza.

I'd be willing to talk about Brandon Phillips as well.

IslandRed, with a #8 pick and lots of college arms on the table, this draft strikes me as an opportune time for the team to reload if it deals a kid like Bailey away. BA had the Reds landing Brandon Morrow in its first mock draft. Man, I'd do flips if that happened.

TheBigLebowski
05-23-2006, 12:17 AM
Well, for the Marlins sure, but I'm not interested in protecting their interests.



IMO, to capitalize on the Dontrelle window (were the Reds to trade for him) the team would have to keep EdE in the fold. They'd need that kind of discount offensive production to offset the cost of keeping a premium pitcher.

Perhaps Brandon Claussen and/or Elizardo Ramirez would interest the Fish. Joey Votto is another guy who might draw some attention from that franchise. If only Miguel Perez weren't seemingly making a legal application to change his name to Mendoza.

I'd be willing to talk about Brandon Phillips as well.

IslandRed, with a #8 pick and lots of college arms on the table, this draft strikes me as an opportune time for the team to reload if it deals a kid like Bailey away. BA had the Reds landing Brandon Morrow in its first mock draft. Man, I'd do flips if that happened.


Are you f'ing kidding me? You want us to take on Dontrelle Willis' salary and give up 2 of our best minor league prospects? Outrageous.

IMO, Homer Bailey is off the table. Chris Denorfia is not going to be dealt unless he wants to be. Trust me on that. He's behind me with a shank as I type this.

AFA as your second part of the post..."Perhaps Brandon Claussen and/or Elizardo Ramirez would interest the Fish." Sure...they'd interest the fish...if we're using those guys as chum while fishing for Cobia. As far as the MLB Fish, aka the Florida Marlins, those guys' names on a trade proposal for Dontrelle Willis would merely provide comic relief.

reds44
05-23-2006, 12:22 AM
Are you f'ing kidding me? You want us to take on Dontrelle Willis' salary and give up 2 of our best minor league prospects? Outrageous.

IMO, Homer Bailey is off the table. Chris Denorfia is not going to be dealt unless he wants to be. Trust me on that. He's behind me with a shank as I type this.

AFA as your second part of the post..."Perhaps Brandon Claussen and/or Elizardo Ramirez would interest the Fish." Sure...they'd interest the fish...if we're using those guys as chum while fishing for Cobia. As far as the MLB Fish, aka the Florida Marlins, those guys' names on a trade proposal for Dontrelle Willis would merely provide comic relief.
Yeah because the Reds have shown the ability to develop pitchers. :rolleyes:

Good players are going to cost money. You aren't going to get around that.

Bailey I would be willing to part with, Denorfia isn't a big thing either. I would have 0 problem getting rid of both of those guys to get a stud pitcher in his mid 20s.

The Marlins need a Center Fielder (Deno), a stud prospect (Homer), and a cathcer (Perez). I am not giving up Deno, Homer, and EE to get Willis however. If I have to give up more then Deno, Homer, and Perez it better be Ryan Wagner, or an average prospect at best.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 12:28 AM
Yeah because the Reds have shown the ability to develop pitchers. :rolleyes:

Good players are going to cost money. You aren't going to get around that.

Bailey I would be willing to part with, Denorfia isn't a big thing either. I would have 0 problem getting rid of both of those guys to get a stud pitcher in his mid 20s.

The Marlins need a Center Fielder (Deno), a stud prospect (Homer), and a cathcer (Perez). I am not giving up Deno, Homer, and EE to get Willis however. If I have to give up more then Deno, Homer, and Perez it better be Ryan Wagner, or an average prospect at best.
Florida has an absolute ton of pitching prospects and I think they would need some bats to deal Willis. So Bruce's name would have to be there at the deadline for a conversation to even begin. If Zona is in contention I could see Willis headed there since they have no young pitching in the minors and tons of bats.

reds44
05-23-2006, 12:32 AM
Florida has an absolute ton of pitching prospects and I think they would need some bats to deal Willis. So Bruce's name would have to be there at the deadline for a conversation to even begin. If Zona is in contention I could see Willis headed there since they have no young pitching in the minors and tons of bats.
Look at that teams ERA compared to its offensive numbers. They need pitching. Outside of Olsen, they really don't have an "ace" prospect like Bailey would bring them. Especially since they are dealing Willis. Deno would fill an immediate need in an inexpensive, young way.

TheBigLebowski
05-23-2006, 12:34 AM
Yeah because the Reds have shown the ability to develop pitchers. :rolleyes:

Good players are going to cost money. You aren't going to get around that.

Bailey I would be willing to part with, Denorfia isn't a big thing either. I would have 0 problem getting rid of both of those guys to get a stud pitcher in his mid 20s.

The Marlins need a Center Fielder (Deno), a stud prospect (Homer), and a cathcer (Perez). I am not giving up Deno, Homer, and EE to get Willis however. If I have to give up more then Deno, Homer, and Perez it better be Ryan Wagner, or an average prospect at best.

You're right that we haven't developed many good pitchers recently, but does that mean you punt every promising prospect at the first sign of interest?

Our farm system is depleted, to say the least. Makes no sense to become the Yankees without the multi-billion dollar payroll. Does Dontrelle make this team that much better? He may add 4-6 wins if we acquired him today, and even that estimation might be generous. Bear in mind that we're a team that won more games with Dave "Launching Pad" Williams than we lost. Dontrelle will expand our payroll considerably, and the dollars will not match the results. Let's remember that this is a guy who got ABUSED in the WBC's (not talking about the Women's Boxing Championships, BTW) and currently carries a 5.12 ERA on the year with one win. Homey's on my fantasy team. He's killing me.

Understand that I definitely realize that Dontrelle will make this team a little better than it is without him. I'd love to have him, if he'd come with Bronson's price tag and without having to part with perhaps our best minor league prospect. Deal won't happen without the aforementioned. Therefore, it makes no sense to me.

Lastly, please comprehend the consequences involved with trading Deno. This is a guy who walks with two balls, and it takes a man with four to strike him out.

Cedric
05-23-2006, 12:35 AM
Yeah because the Reds have shown the ability to develop pitchers. :rolleyes:

Good players are going to cost money. You aren't going to get around that.

Bailey I would be willing to part with, Denorfia isn't a big thing either. I would have 0 problem getting rid of both of those guys to get a stud pitcher in his mid 20s.

The Marlins need a Center Fielder (Deno), a stud prospect (Homer), and a cathcer (Perez). I am not giving up Deno, Homer, and EE to get Willis however. If I have to give up more then Deno, Homer, and Perez it better be Ryan Wagner, or an average prospect at best.

99.9% of the time I'm willing to deal Homer Bailey or any other low minor pitcher. I know this goes against everything reasonable, but after watching his delivery I wouldn't move him. I repeat again that it's probably gonna bite me in the butt one day in the future, but I wouldn't move him because of pure stuff and his comparably low risk of injury with his delivery.

I just see something with my own eyes that is outweighing my brain right now.

Falls City Beer
05-23-2006, 12:40 AM
The thought of waiting for Homer Bailey to make his Reds debut in 2009, only to grab his elbow on the third pitch of the game, makes me sleepy.

M2
05-23-2006, 12:41 AM
Are you f'ing kidding me? You want us to take on Dontrelle Willis' salary and give up 2 of our best minor league prospects? Outrageous.

IMO, Homer Bailey is off the table. Chris Denorfia is not going to be dealt unless he wants to be. Trust me on that. He's behind me with a shank as I type this.

So you'd rather have some big maybe in Sarasota than one of the best young pitchers in majors? Not me. Plus, I've had this same argument when the prospect in question was named Ty Howington. The idea is to win in the majors, not in the FSL. Kids like Bailey come and go. Most never amount to anything. What you'd want from him, ideally, is that someday he grows up to be as good a pitcher as Willis. Make the trade and you get all the return with none of the mystery.

As for Deno, I'd like to keep him around mainly because I'd like to see the Reds deal away Kearns and/or Jr. to help round out the club and Deno's a quality discount replacement option. He's a good sleeper and smaller market teams can use guys like that. Honestly, I doubt many teams value him nearly as much as Reds fans do.


AFA as your second part of the post..."Perhaps Brandon Claussen and/or Elizardo Ramirez would interest the Fish." Sure...they'd interest the fish...if we're using those guys as chum while fishing for Cobia. As far as the MLB Fish, aka the Florida Marlins, those guys' names on a trade proposal for Dontrelle Willis would merely provide comic relief.

Who knows what the Fish want. They're after 110 loses near as I can tell. If they get all googly-eyed about that Homer Bailey behind curtain #1, then they might want an arm or two to fill in the rotation while they wait for some kids to grow up. Got to build that bridge to tomorrow. If you give up your top-rated prospect the key is act like that's such a huge concession on your part that you get the other club looking at filler instead of at talent you want to keep.


You're right that we haven't developed many good pitchers recently, but does that mean you punt every promising prospect at the first sign of interest?

No, but you do trade him for a 24-year-old stud in the majors. Look at the effect that Arroyo's had. Add a pitcher in front of him and Harang and you've got the makings of something.

Cedric
05-23-2006, 12:45 AM
The thought of waiting for Homer Bailey to make his Reds debut in 2009, only to grab his elbow on the third pitch of the game, makes me sleepy.

Obviously it's much more likely that he burns out and never pitches in the bigs. Just being a Reds fan and watching Homer pitch is different than Gruler or Howington.

Trust me, I was around for those guys and I have no doubts a Homer flameout is possible. I just like his delivery and I think he's a lower risk than those guys of hurting himself. I never believed the crap about Gruler being durable, I thought his delivery was pretty violent for a kid that hyped.

Falls City Beer
05-23-2006, 12:49 AM
You make the moves that help you, and you never look back. A MLB GM's job, first and foremost, is to put a MLB team on the field. We Reds' fans have forgotten this I think.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2006, 01:03 AM
Obviously it's much more likely that he burns out and never pitches in the bigs. Just being a Reds fan and watching Homer pitch is different than Gruler or Howington.

Trust me, I was around for those guys and I have no doubts a Homer flameout is possible. I just like his delivery and I think he's a lower risk than those guys of hurting himself. I never believed the crap about Gruler being durable, I thought his delivery was pretty violent for a kid that hyped.

Mark Prior was the poster child for "brilliant mechanics" and it hasn't kept him off the DL.

By refusing to flip Bailey for Willis -- assuming the deal would work -- you're basically placing all your eggs in Homer's basket and stating you believe that not only will Bailey make the majors in one piece, but that he'll match the effectiveness of a guy who, at age 24, was a serious cy young contender last year.

Me? I've seen way too many Homer Baileys flame out in the minors after being can't miss at A and AA levels to put any faith in his ever seeing a GABP mound.

TheBigLebowski
05-23-2006, 01:05 AM
So you'd rather have some big maybe in Sarasota than one of the best young pitchers in majors? Not me. Plus, I've had this same argument when the prospect in question was named Ty Howington. The idea is to win in the majors, not in the FSL. Kids like Bailey come and go. Most never amount to anything. What you'd want from him, ideally, is that someday he grows up to be as good a pitcher as Willis. Make the trade and you get all the return with none of the mystery.

If I was to agree with this, then the draft is basically a waste of time. Hell, the entire concept of a "farm system" is a waste of time. Better to trade off all the nuisances otherwise known as "first round draft picks" for expensive current major leaguers. Does every highly touted 1st round pick pay off? Two names: Chad Mottola and Jeremy Sowers. Mottola never amounted to squat. We knew when we picked Sowers that we'd never sign him and we wanted the compensation. End result? A paltry farm system that does not produce major league players. Homer Bailey is our best prospect; quite possibly one pick that we got right under the evil hand of DanO. You never refuted my point that Dontrelle does not make us THAT much better - he would be, at best, a 4-6 win improvement. Do you really think those 4-6 wins make us a playoff team this year? If not, then we need to consider what D'Train will cost us long term. Hint - it's a price we will not be able to afford. To sum - we deal our best prospect for a couple of meaningless wins. I'm not willing to do it, and I hope our front office echoes my thoughts.


As for Deno, I'd like to keep him around mainly because I'd like to see the Reds deal away Kearns and/or Jr. to help round out the club and Deno's a quality discount replacement option. He's a good sleeper and smaller market teams can use guys like that. Honestly, I doubt many teams value him nearly as much as Reds fans do.

I don't want the Reds to deal Kearns. Why deal him now? Because he's finally playing like we all hoped he would? This small-market mentality oftentimes borders on insanity. BTW - insanity can be loosely definited as doing the same thing over and over again, hoping to produce different results. If we keep dealing off the fruits of our struggling farm system for more minor leaguers, we're not going to change our plight. Even if we were to find a buyer for Kearns that was willing to part with a latter-half-of-the-rotation starter, we'd still likely lose. Kearns can be a cornerstone of this franchise for years. The mildly talented pitcher we'd gain in return would either fizzle out (aka Dave Williams) or be dealt himself for more prospects (the idea many RZ'ers champion for Bronson Arroyo) if he pitches successfully here. The prospects we'd receive in return would then thusly be dealt for another overpriced, overrated, "established" major leaguer. Therein ...lies the Reds.




Who knows what the Fish want. They're after 110 loses near as I can tell. If they get all googly-eyed about that Homer Bailey behind curtain #1, then they might want an arm or two to fill in the rotation while they wait for some kids to grow up. Got to build that bridge to tomorrow. If you give up your top-rated prospect the key is act like that's such a huge concession on your part that you get the other club looking at filler instead of at talent you want to keep.

You act like we're really that far ahead of the Marlins. We're another 2-8 10 game split from seeking the same thing for which they're looking. Furthermore, Do you REALLY think we are going to outbid the Yanks and 'Stros of the world for Dontrelle?




No, but you do trade him for a 24-year-old stud in the majors. Look at the effect that Arroyo's had. Add a pitcher in front of him and Harang and you've got the makings of something.

You may be right....Of course, Harang may not end this season with an ERA less than 5.00, Arroyo could regress to the mean, and Dontrelle could continue upon his current path towards mediocrity. While we're speculating, Homer Bailey could become Johan Santana, and Chris Denorfia could cure AIDS, cancer, and win the peace in Iraq.

Cedric
05-23-2006, 01:13 AM
Mark Prior was the poster child for "brilliant mechanics" and it hasn't kept him off the DL.

By refusing to flip Bailey for Willis -- assuming the deal would work -- you're basically placing all your eggs in Homer's basket and stating you believe that not only will Bailey make the majors in one piece, but that he'll match the effectiveness of a guy who, at age 24, was a serious cy young contender last year.

Me? I've seen way too many Homer Baileys flame out in the minors after being can't miss at A and AA levels to put any faith in his ever seeing a GABP mound.

I've seen it. I said that earlier. I'm just going totally against everything I know and going with the ol gut here.

Hell, sometimes you gotta go the fun way and say to hell with everything you know.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2006, 01:19 AM
I've seen it. I said that earlier. I'm just going totally against everything I know and going with the ol gut here.

Hell, sometimes you gotta go the fun way and say to hell with everything you know.

Admittedly, it'd be more "fun" to watch the Reds bring a kid out of their own farm system that is an untouchable fireballer and then watch the rest of America all, at the same time, do the "Who the hell is that?" double-take.

Been a while since Reds fans have been able to smile smugly about a pitcher fanning double-digits during games in his rookie year.

TheBigLebowski
05-23-2006, 01:34 AM
Admittedly, it'd be more "fun" to watch the Reds bring a kid out of their own farm system that is an untouchable fireballer and then watch the rest of America all, at the same time, do the "Who the hell is that?" double-take.

Been a while since Reds fans have been able to smile smugly about a pitcher fanning double-digits during games in his rookie year.

If our current administration listens to some of the fans around here, the scenario you referenced will never happen.

KronoRed
05-23-2006, 01:42 AM
The thought of waiting for Homer Bailey to make his Reds debut in 2009, only to grab his elbow on the third pitch of the game, makes me sleepy.
It would take a few innings at least

M2
05-23-2006, 02:01 AM
If I was to agree with this, then the draft is basically a waste of time. Hell, the entire concept of a "farm system" is a waste of time.

No, but there does come a time when you have to pull your head out of your bum and realize you can trade a maybe for the exact thing you'd like that maybe to be.


You never refuted my point that Dontrelle does not make us THAT much better - he would be, at best, a 4-6 win improvement. Do you really think those 4-6 wins make us a playoff team this year? If not, then we need to consider what D'Train will cost us long term. Hint - it's a price we will not be able to afford. To sum - we deal our best prospect for a couple of meaningless wins. I'm not willing to do it, and I hope our front office echoes my thoughts.

Actually I did refute it. Though no one player makes the team THAT much better. Wait around four years until Homer Bailey maybe shows up and he won't make the team THAT much better either. It's a team game after all. Yet we're seeing the effect consistently well-pitched games can have in conjunction with this offense thanks to Arroyo and Harang. Arroyo's effect has been larger than even supporters of the Pena for Arroyo trade imagined. Quality major league starters are what the Reds need. My recommendation is get what you need and let the wins sort themselves out.

Anyway, 2006 isn't the year you should to be aiming for. The Reds are still a work in progress. The bullpen still needs to be cobbled together even if the team gets a quality threesome fronting the rotation. Yet Willis would be team property at least through 2008 and (with Eric Milton coming off the books after 2007 and MLB revenues on a consistent rise) it's not hard to imagine the team could work a two-year extension beyond that. Jr. comes off the books in that time frame too. Why not take that money and give it to a staff leader?

You deal your top prospect for the kind of pitcher you'll need to make an honest run before this decade closes out, the kind of pitcher your system isn't going to produce inside that window.


I don't want the Reds to deal Kearns. Why deal him now?

Because there's probably a healthy market for his services for the first time in a while. Because you can replace him. Because you only hold his rights through 2007.


This small-market mentality oftentimes borders on insanity. BTW - insanity can be loosely definited as doing the same thing over and over again, hoping to produce different results. If we keep dealing off the fruits of our struggling farm system for more minor leaguers, we're not going to change our plight.

You're the guy insisting the team can't pay for a frontline starter who won't hit free agency until after 2008, not me. So just point that "small-market mentality" gun at yourself. I've never lived in a small market. The entire concept's alien to me.

And when have the Reds ever traded a hot prospect for a pitcher coming off Cy Young contention? Last time I remember it being done was in 1977 and the pitcher was named Tom Seaver. The insanity the Reds keep repeating is obsessively hanging onto the wisps of hope in the minors and thinking that in four or five years the club will have some pitching rather than doing something about the problem today. You're the one advocating repeating the steps that have landed the club in the pitching equivalent of the Black Hole of Calcutta. I'm the one suggesting the team try something different and seize the day rather than continue to wait for Godot.


Kearns can be a cornerstone of this franchise for years.

Not if he's gone after next year he can't be. Seeing that he hasn't been a cornerstone of anything yet and that he's getting close to free agency, I'm not taking it for granted that he's going to pay big dividends inside that small window.

I'd rather deal Jr. and keep Kearns around, but if someone's willing to trade me some talent I think can be brought to bear for a 2007-8 push, then I'd move Austin.


The mildly talented pitcher we'd gain in return would either fizzle out (aka Dave Williams) or be dealt himself for more prospects (the idea many RZ'ers champion for Bronson Arroyo) if he pitches successfully here. The prospects we'd receive in return would then thusly be dealt for another overpriced, overrated, "established" major leaguer. Therein ...lies the Reds.

Dave Williams didn't fizzle out. Dave Williams sucked and it was idiot GM who dealt for him. I don't advocate trading Arroyo, it goes back to him being what the club most needs. Why would you deal away what it's taken you so long to acquire? With Arroyo and Harang under the team's control through 2008 the Reds can, for the first time in ages, look to build a team around a solid foundation in the rotation. Get a guy to go in front of them, like Willis, and, by George, you've got it.


You act like we're really that far ahead of the Marlins. We're another 2-8 10 game split from seeking the same thing for which they're looking. Furthermore, Do you REALLY think we are going to outbid the Yanks and 'Stros of the world for this guy?

This has nothing to do with market size and everything to do with what you can offer the Marlins. What can the Yankees and Astros offer the Marlins? You seem to think Homer Bailey is the answer to life, the universe and everything. Surely the Marlins would like to put their hands on that. Have the Yankees and Astros got corresponding talents that they're willing to deal? The Diamondbacks are the problematic entrant in the sweepstakes at the moment because they've got a pile of highly-rated hitting prospects at their disposal. Though they've got financial problems and that may keep them from making a serious bid. Cheap kids might ultimately be what they have to rely upon.


You may be right....Of course, Harang may not end this season with an ERA less than 5.00, Arroyo could regress to the mean, and Dontrelle could continue upon his current path towards mediocrity. While we're speculating, Homer Bailey could become Johan Santana, and Chris Denorfia could cure AIDS, cancer, and win the peace in Iraq.

Harang threw 212.2 IP with a 3.83 ERA last year and he's on pace to repeat it this year and you're speculating that he's headed for 5.00+ ERA? Yeah, anything could happen I suppose, but I see no indication as to why anyone should worry about that scenario. Arroyo will regress and probably wind up around 200+ IP with a 3.50-4.00 ERA. And the problem with that is? Willis nearly won a Cy Young last year. I know he's had an awful month, but that's an awfully big baby you're tossing away with that tiny amount of bathwater. He's stuck in the existential hell of playing for a team that's going nowhere for a long time. The Fish, optimistically, are working on a five-year plan and Dontrelle's a three-year player. I imagine that whoever liberates him will have a highly-motivated, extremely-thankful pitcher on their hands.

cincinnati chili
05-23-2006, 02:13 AM
This is all very interesting (I'm not being sarcastic), but it's academic. The Marlins are going to get a lot more than the likes of Bailey, a guy who has clearly gotten better, but is yet to average much more than 5 innings per start, and who's never pitched to a Double A batter.

I count three guys on Arizona's 40-man roster (plus one guy in triple A - Quentin - not on the 40-man) who are capable of putting up rookie-of-the-year seasons THIS year. Right now. The D'Backs, just don't have room for all of them. If they can fit Willis' salary in the budget, I think they get him.

The question should be, how badly do teams WITH THE PROSPECTS want him.

Like M2, I would GUESS that Dontrelle's going to work through his bad stretch. But considering this guy is going to cost probably $7 mil. in arbitration next year and $10 mil. the year after that, I'd like to be 95% certain. He looked awful in the WBC and spring. It's not just the regular season.

Aronchis
05-23-2006, 02:18 AM
I agree. The Fish will want hitting for Willis. They already are stocked with young pitching. Bailey? Sure, any power pitcher that drives with his legs rather than a arm thrower has value beyond his developement, but not for the Marlins.

I would be asking for Denorfia,Votto and Bruce. After that, the Reds have nothing to offer.

Not a good match. Matter of fact, the Reds need to find the undervalued arm by dealing a overrated talent like Kearns.

Javy Pornstache
05-23-2006, 02:32 AM
I think it's pretty much been touched upon in the last few posts, but the Diamondbacks are the team that will land Willis if Florida does trade him (and I am not convinced they will in the end, it could be just trying to drive up an insane seller's market in the early season seeing as how only three or four teams seem truly out of it).

Florida has a decent depth of young pitching, but I am sure they wouldn't turn down a quality arm from Arizona in a potential deal. But when talking the likes of Justin Upton and Stephen Drew, both shortstops, and Conor Jackson and Carlos Quentin and the likes, Arizona has a lot, and what's more, they have a lot of guys that are either young and at the major league level, or just on the cusp. They can afford to part with some of them. IF he's dealt, I think Arizona stands as the clear favorite to land him, but that doesn't mean anything really in late May.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 02:40 AM
No, but there does come a time when you have to pull your head out of your bum and realize you can trade a maybe for the exact thing you'd like that maybe to be.


For some reason I picture Homer Bailey (the maybe in your example) being a little better than 5.12 ERA, 5.12 k/9 and a 1.47 WHIP (the exact thing youd like the maybe to be in your example).
Willis doesnt even post a 2/1 k/bb ratio this season.

For some reason I dont get excited about being able to land him....much less giving up a few of our top prospects.

M2
05-23-2006, 03:00 AM
For some reason I picture Homer Bailey (the maybe in your example) being a little better than 5.12 ERA, 5.12 k/9 and a 1.47 WHIP (the exact thing youd like the maybe to be in your example).
Willis doesnt even post a 2/1 k/bb ratio this season.

For some reason I dont get excited about being able to land him....much less giving up a few of our top prospects.

Yeah, because that's the intelligent way to judge a player. Let's only pay attention to May 2006. I would never advocate taking the broader view that Willis is 24 with a 3.45 career MAJOR LEAGUE ERA in 657.1 IP with a 6.67 K/9, 2.49 K/BB, 1.36 G/F, 0.64 HR/9 and .697 OPS against. That would be irresponsible.

I would also never advocate comparing his minor league stats where he posted a 2.03 ERA in 222 IP to Homer Bailey who has a 4.07 ERA in 161.1 IP. Clearly there's nothing to learn there.

TheBigLebowski
05-23-2006, 03:02 AM
Actually I did refute it. Though no one player makes the team THAT much better. Wait around four years until Homer Bailey maybe shows up and he won't make the team THAT much better either. It's a team game after all. Yet we're seeing the effect consistently well-pitched games can have in conjunction with this offense thanks to Arroyo and Harang. Arroyo's effect has been larger than even supporters of the Pena for Arroyo trade imagined. Quality major league starters are what the Reds need. My recommendation is get what you need and let the wins sort themselves out.

I am not foreign to the "team" concept. Therein partially lies my objection. I do not know that Dontrelle makes us a much better "team." Again, in the small sample from which we have to draw known as the 2006 Reds, Dave Williams makes us a better "team" because we have won more of his starts than we have lost. Dontrelle's ERA is only slightly better than that of Disco Dave's. Do I know that Homer Bailey is our Johan Santana? Of course not. It is clear that the guy has talent. It is clear that our farm system does not have ANY other guys with his upside. Why is this important? I'll tell you. When a franchise's farm system is well-stocked and productive, finding that next starter or bullpen pitcher is not such a daunting task. Maybe Homer Bailey falls victim to his nickname and surrenders too many round-trippers. Would be nice to have a farm system that does not boast of only ONE guy.


Anyway, 2006 isn't the year you should to be aiming for. The Reds are still a work in progress. The bullpen still needs to be cobbled together even if the team gets a quality threesome fronting the rotation. Yet Willis would be team property at least through 2008 and (with Eric Milton coming off the books after 2007 and MLB revenues on a consistent rise) it's not hard to imagine the team could work a two-year extension beyond that. Jr. comes off the books in that time frame too. Why not take that money and give it to a staff leader?

Are we even sure Dontrelle is a "staff leader?" Moreso than Harang and Arroyo? Look at the "staff leaders" our division boasts. Chris Carpenter, Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte, possibly another year of Roger Clemens, Ben Sheets, and I will mention the oft-injured Cubs' boys (Prior and Wood) in addition to Zambrano. Fact is, Dontrelle does NOT make us that much more competitive. The focus needs to be to build our farm system. Again, Dontrelle will add to our payroll while not adding any definitive value to our starting staff.

BTW - your argument that JR's salary comes off the books in the same time frame does more to hurt your stance than to help it. We could use JR's $$$$$ then to sign an established starter and still keep Homer, rather than dealing him away and taking on salary that we really can't afford. I think we all agree that roster moves should not be done with this year's benefit in mind.


You deal your top prospect for the kind of pitcher you'll need to make an honest run before this decade closes out, the kind of pitcher your system isn't going to produce inside that window.

Again......Dontrelle Willis is not the bridge between where the Reds are to division champs.




Because there's probably a healthy market for his services for the first time in a while. Because you can replace him. Because you only hold his rights through 2007.

There's a bigger market for Dunn and JR. We can replace Dunn and JR. We don't hold JR's rights that much longer, and Dunn is quite attractive at his current salary.




You're the guy insisting the team can't pay for a frontline starter who won't hit free agency until after 2008, not me. So just point that "small-market mentality" gun at yourself. I've never lived in a small market. The entire concept's alien to me.

Large-market teams like the Yanks don't seek to deal a guy like Kearns simply because he is finally beginning to produce. Large market teams like the Yanks don't even entertain the idea of dealing a guy like Bronson Arroyo simply because he is finally living up to expectations. Fans who suggest moves like these are exhibiting the symptoms of living in a "small market." This is the universe we occupy, like it or love it. Arroyo is costing us NOTHING when one considers his production. Same for Kearns. Small market fans see a vet producing and realize that we are likely not long for the pennant race, so they hypothesize what we may be able to gain in trade for our proven players.

I've pointed the aforementioned "small market gun" at my head several times and pulled the trigger. I'm just sick of doing it because I've realized the error of that philosophy. Even Krivs himself recently decried it.

CAN this team pay for a Dontrelle Willis? Probably. We found a way to pay Eric Milton 9 mil/year. Doesn't mean it is a smart investment, and it didn't cost us our best prospect. FWIW, I will knock the Straw Man over for you contrarians - NO, Eric Milton is not Dontrelle Willis. However, Dontrelle does not look like the most solid of propositions at this point. If you can't see that, you're not looking.


And when have the Reds ever traded a hot prospect for a pitcher coming off Cy Young contention? Last time I remember it being done was in 1977 and the pitcher was named Tom Seaver. The insanity the Reds keep repeating is obsessively hanging onto the wisps of hope in the minors and thinking that in four or five years the club will have some pitching rather than doing something about the problem today. You're the one advocating repeating the steps that have landed the club in the pitching equivalent of the Black Hole of Calcutta. I'm the one suggesting the team try something different and seize the day rather than continue to wait for Godot.

Red Herring. The Reds don't trade great prospects for Cy Young winners or close contenders for two reasons.

1. The Reds farm system generally does not have the caliber of prospect that would entice the owner of said Cy Young winner or contender to make a deal, or;

2. The Reds could not afford the salary of this Cy Young winner or contender.

Next issue.




This has nothing to do with market size and everything to do with what you can offer the Marlins. What can the Yankees and Astros offer the Marlins? You seem to think Homer Bailey is the answer to life, the universe and everything. Surely the Marlins would like to put their hands on that. Have the Yankees and Astros got corresponding talents that they're willing to deal? The Diamondbacks are the problematic entrant in the sweepstakes at the moment because they've got a pile of highly-rated hitting prospects at their disposal. Though they've got financial problems and that may keep them from making a serious bid. Cheap kids might ultimately be what they have to rely upon.

As far as the sensationalistic quote that I think that Bailey is the "answer to life, the universe, and everything" - please show me where that sort of hyperbole is justified. I acknowledge what he is worth to this franchise and, if you dispute that, then you are an idiot for thinking he could be used in a deal to bring big-time pitching this way. Hoisted on your own petard.

My main argument is not that the Yanks and Astros can offer better minor league talent. They probably can't. My point is that we'd be idiots for outbidding them with the best our system has to offer for an expensive pitcher that will not necessarily make our team THAT much better.




that[/i] scenario. Arroyo will regress and probably wind up around 200+ IP with a 3.50-4.00 ERA. And the problem with that is? Willis nearly won a Cy Young last year. I know he's had an awful month, but that's an awfully big baby you're tossing away with that tiny amount of bathwater. He's stuck in the existential hell of playing for a team that's going nowhere for a long time. The Fish, optimistically, are working on a five-year plan and Dontrelle's a three-year player. I imagine that whoever liberates him will have a highly-motivated, extremely-thankful pitcher on their hands.

Albert Pujols is on pace to shatter Barry Roids' single-season HR record. Way too early to start using projections as a firm argument.

On that same vein, Arroyo having a 3.50-4.00 era would be a statistical outlier, when one considers he's NEVER had an era in that range after an entire season's work. Awfully big assumption.

Another big assumption is that Dontrelle is a 3 year player. Even though I am clearly against acquiring him due to the expected cost, the franchise that lands him should surely expect more than 3 good years out of a guy his age. Furthermore, if you cannot tell that Dontrelle is motivated to win even in his current environment, then your personal scouting report has missed badly. Again, this is a guy who pitched for his country before the season started, and got rocked.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 03:26 AM
Yeah, because that's the intelligent way to judge a player. Let's only pay attention to May 2006. I would never advocate taking the broader view that Willis is 24 with a 3.45 career MAJOR LEAGUE ERA in 657.1 IP with a 6.67 K/9, 2.49 K/BB, 1.36 G/F, 0.64 HR/9 and .697 OPS against. That would be irresponsible.

I would also never advocate comparing his minor league stats where he posted a 2.03 ERA in 222 IP to Homer Bailey who has a 4.07 ERA in 161.1 IP. Clearly there's nothing to learn there.

If we were only paying attention to May, I would be talking about a 7.71 ERA and not a 5.12 ERA. He is striking out 2.5 fewer batters per 9 innings than he did just 3 years ago. His walk rate is also up over his past numbers. So, his ERA is up, his WHIP is up, his walks are up, his hits per 9 rate is up 2 hits per 9, his strikeouts are down....His OPS against is also sitting at a nice .845.

Yeah, I can totally see where you are coming from in giving up our system for this guy....If this guys name were Marty Johnson and not Dontrelle Willis you would be laughing at the thought of trading for him, much less trading your best prospects for him.

M2
05-23-2006, 04:07 AM
Would be nice to have a farm system that does not boast of only ONE guy.

It'd be better to have a major league staff capable of competing for October baseball. The point of the minor league operation is to deliver talent to the major league operation. Trading Bailey for Willis accomplishes that goal.


Are we even sure Dontrelle is a "staff leader?"

2003 NL Rookie of the Year, runner up for the 2005 NL Cy Young, career 3.45 ERA. Yeah, I'll take that for a staff leader.


Fact is, Dontrelle does NOT make us that much more competitive.

You keep saying that like it means something when it's nothing more than some empty mantra you've decided to spout. He gives the team what it most needs. I'm for the team getting that. Apparently you don't think the team should get what it most needs. This is a point on which you'll find I have no give.


The focus needs to be to build our farm system. Again, Dontrelle will add to our payroll while not adding any definitive value to our starting staff.

Yes, let's make the folks in Sarasota and Chattanooga happy. That's what the franchise most needs. Winning in the majors is a sucker's bet. And who'd care if they did?

And once again, if you don't see the definitive value of adding a 24-year-old starter with a 3.45 ERA then I'll suggest you familiarize yourself with what's made the Reds so bad in this century.


BTW - your argument that JR's salary comes off the books in the same time frame does more to hurt your stance than to help it. We could use JR's $$$$$ then to sign an established starter and still keep Homer, rather than dealing him away and taking on salary that we really can't afford. I think we all agree that roster moves should not be done with this year's benefit in mind.

Let's see, Paul Wilson comes off the books after this season. That would cover any raise Willis is likely to get. Eric Milton comes off the year after, once again, covering any raise he'd be likely to get. Small market mentality indeed.

And if you want to hold off on making the sorts of bold moves necessary to turn the current cast of players into a contender, then when Jr. comes off the books you can probably forget about having Dunn, Kearns, Lopez, Harang or Arroyo around. Basically you'll be left with EdE and maybe Homer Bailey ready to break into the majors and take his lumps. I'm sure free agents will be knocking down the door to join a club on an eight-year slide without much in the way of established talent.


Again......Dontrelle Willis is not the bridge between where the Reds are to division champs.

Yes, clearly players finding their way in Sarasota are much more help when it comes to building a contender than major league pitchers with 650 quality innings under their belts.


There's a bigger market for Dunn and JR. We can replace Dunn and JR. We don't hold JR's rights that much longer, and Dunn is quite attractive at his current salary.

You'll get no argument from me on Jr. He'd be at the top my hit list. As for Dunn, he's been wildly more productive than Kearns to date. Sturdier too. Dunn's the kind of player who can elevate the offense around him. Kearns, to date, has not been that sort of player. Keeping Dunn allow you to take greater risks with the rest of your offense. Keeping Kearns limits your options on that front.


Large-market teams like the Yanks don't seek to deal a guy like Kearns simply because he is finally beginning to produce.

Large market teams trade from depth to fill holes. At least that's what I've noticed having spent my entire life living in large markets.


Large market teams like the Yanks don't even entertain the idea of dealing a guy like Bronson Arroyo simply because he is finally living up to expectations.

And that's something you'll surely want to bring up with someone who now wants to trade Bronson Arroyo. I, however, am not such a person and I think I made that abundantly clear.


Fans who suggest moves like these are exhibiting the symptoms of living in a "small market." This is the universe we occupy, like it or love it. Arroyo is costing us NOTHING when one considers his production. Same for Kearns. Small market fans see a vet producing and realize that we are likely not long for the pennant race, so they hypothesize what we may be able to gain in trade for our proven players.

I'm sure this would be an interesting thing to say to someone who is from or who currently lives in a small market. As I've explained to you, neither apply to me. I'm as northeast corridor as it gets. I'm suggesting moving Kearns because he's underperformed in his career to date and he's not signed to be around for the window at which I'd be shooting. I'd keep Arroyo because he's exactly what the team needs and he will be around for that window.


I've pointed the aforementioned "small market gun" at my head several times and pulled the trigger. I'm just sick of doing it because I've realized the error of that philosophy.

So trade some kid who may never amount to anything for an ace and pay for the guy already.


CAN this team pay for a Dontrelle Willis? Probably. We found a way to pay Eric Milton 9 mil/year. Doesn't mean it is a smart investment, and it didn't cost us our best prospect. FWIW, I will knock the Straw Man over for you contrarians - NO, Eric Milton is not Dontrelle Willis. However, Dontrelle does not look like the most solid of propositions at this point. If you can't see that, you're not looking.

I remember hearing a chorus of folks make the same case when it came to trading Pena for Arroyo. Honestly worrying overly much about Dontrelle Willis being able to deliver some good pitching strikes me as nothing more than a predilection for needless consternation.


Red Herring. The Reds don't trade great prospects for Cy Young winners or close contenders for two reasons.

1. The Reds farm system generally does not have the caliber of prospect that would entice the owner of said Cy Young winner or contender to make a deal, or;

2. The Reds could not afford the salary of this Cy Young winner or contender.

3. The franchise never thinks to trade a prospect until his trade value is shot.

4. The Reds have been stuck in a small market loop where they spend all of their time worrying about what they can't do instead of figuring out what they can do. Hopefully that's changed with the Castellini/Krivsky regime.


As far as the sensationalistic quote that I think that Bailey is the "answer to life, the universe, and everything" - please show me where that sort of hyperbole is justified. I acknowledge what he is worth to this franchise and, if you dispute that, then you are an idiot for thinking he could be used in a deal to bring big-time pitching this way. Hoisted on your own petard.

Well, there's a literary reference that went right over your head. Nothing to be done about that. At least I'm a well-read idiot.

And apparently you've missed me acknowledging Homer's value to the franchise throughout this thread. He's big-time trade bait. And when the Marlins trade Dontrelle Willis, they're going to want at least one Bailey-level prospect for him. I'm not the one claiming Homer's incredibly valuable yet somehow no one would want to trade for him. That would be silly.


My main argument is not that the Yanks and Astros can offer better minor league talent. They probably can't. My point is that we'd be idiots for outbidding them with the best our system has to offer for an expensive pitcher that will not necessarily make our team THAT much better.

Do you even know who the Yankees and Astros have in their systems? I'm guessing you don't because neither of those franchises abounds with big-name prospects.

And again, would you like to see the Reds fix the epidemically bad starting this decade or not? You seem fairly adamantly in the not camp, but I keep hoping your attic light will flip on.


Albert Pujols is on pace to shatter Barry Roids' single-season HR record. Way too early to start using projections as a firm argument.

So taking Harang's last 278 IP as evidence that maybe he's all right doesn't work for you yet you'll fret over Willis' last 31.2 IP? Is there a point in this conversation where you'll begin to place apples next to apples or are you just going to keep bouncing between random and often contrary points?


On that same vein, Arroyo having a 3.50-4.00 era would be a statistical outlier, when one considers he's NEVER had an era in that range after an entire season's work. Awfully big assumption.

This would be the same Bronson Arroyo you were saying above the Reds shouldn't be looking to trade? If you don't think he can pitch that well then why on earth would you be looking to hold onto him? It seems that you're current position is that you're going to disagree with everything I say even when it undercuts your own prior arguments. As for how big an assumption it is, Arroyo posted a 4.27 ERA over his last 385 IP with the Red Sox. League adjustment alone (no DH in the NL) should get him close to a sub-4.00 ERA.


Another big assumption is that Dontrelle is a 3 year player. Even though I am clearly against acquiring him due to the expected cost, the franchise that lands him should surely expect more than 3 good years out of a guy his age.

He's a three-year player because after 2008 he's a free agent. The Marlins can't expect him to be around for the next time the franchise can put a quality team around him. Though if a team traded for him and said team had its biggest contract coming off the books after 2008, it could probably work out an extension.


Furthermore, if you cannot tell that Dontrelle is motivated to win even in his current environment, then your personal scouting report has missed badly. Again, this is a guy who pitched for his country before the season started, and got rocked.

I'm sure Dontrelle theoretically wants to win, but it's hard to get yourself geared up to pitch for an awful club. Randy Johnson hit that wall with the Mariners and he rebounded nicely from it. Not everyone does well marking time until they're inevitably traded away. If you're going to hold that against him then someone else will be the victor who gets the spoils. Me, I recognize that humans play this game.

As for having gotten rocked in the WBC, I don't care what happened there. It's as valid as looking at preseason stats, which is to say it's got no validity at all.

M2
05-23-2006, 04:16 AM
If we were only paying attention to May, I would be talking about a 7.71 ERA and not a 5.12 ERA. He is striking out 2.5 fewer batters per 9 innings than he did just 3 years ago. His walk rate is also up over his past numbers. So, his ERA is up, his WHIP is up, his walks are up, his hits per 9 rate is up 2 hits per 9, his strikeouts are down....His OPS against is also sitting at a nice .845.

Except he had a 3.13 ERA with a 5.97 K/9, 1.23 WHIP (below his career average) and .593 OPS against in April. So we are just taking about his five starts in May which has caused his numbers to temporarily slide.

And his career stats, which you continue to ignore, remain very good. I'll stick by what I said. You focus on his May 2006 all you want and I'll focus on the numerous years during which he's pitched well. There isn't a spot of doubt in my mind as to which set of figures is more relevant.


Yeah, I can totally see where you are coming from in giving up our system for this guy....If this guys name were Marty Johnson and not Dontrelle Willis you would be laughing at the thought of trading for him, much less trading your best prospects for him.

If Marty Johnson had won the 2003 ROY, was the runner up for last year's Cy Young and sported a career 3.45 ERA you'd better believe I'd be advocating dealing some nebulous prospects for him.

SteelSD
05-23-2006, 04:16 AM
If we were only paying attention to May, I would be talking about a 7.71 ERA and not a 5.12 ERA. He is striking out 2.5 fewer batters per 9 innings than he did just 3 years ago. His walk rate is also up over his past numbers. So, his ERA is up, his WHIP is up, his walks are up, his hits per 9 rate is up 2 hits per 9, his strikeouts are down....His OPS against is also sitting at a nice .845.

Yeah, I can totally see where you are coming from in giving up our system for this guy....If this guys name were Marty Johnson and not Dontrelle Willis you would be laughing at the thought of trading for him, much less trading your best prospects for him.

Dontrelle Willis 2006:

ERA: 5.12
DIPS: 4.02
DIPS Rate: 79%
BABIP: .329
OPS Against: .751
Marlins Team Defensive Efficiency: .685 (26th in MLB)

Hmn...so far all I see is a guy who's been pitching with a bad team in front of a bad defense while getting significantly Hit and ERA unlucky while still posting a very respectable .751 OPSA and DIPS.

When a pitcher goes through a bad 3-game stretch (and Willis hits one of those every season) but still ends up with numbers like that after his next two starts, it's called "failing well". When coupled with back to back starts of 9 Innings and 8 Innings while allowing four ER combined, I'd say that nothing's wrong with Dontrelle Willis that won't fix itself if he's healthy. And I dare say that a pitcher who's tossed 17 Innings over his past two Starts is most likely healthy.

Oh, and that'd also be my take if his name were Marty Johnson.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 07:40 AM
Look at that teams ERA compared to its offensive numbers. They need pitching. Outside of Olsen, they really don't have an "ace" prospect like Bailey would bring them. Especially since they are dealing Willis. Deno would fill an immediate need in an inexpensive, young way.
I don't think they care about what the ML team does this year, so ERA doesn't matter. And they have a lot more than Olsen. Johnson and Volstad are two very good prospects among others (Tankersley, Petit, etc). I think any Willis deal would have to involve Kearns and/or Bruce. And I'm not sure I want him bad enough.

redsfan4445
05-23-2006, 09:27 AM
per prosportsdaily.com

"Teams eyeing Willis
May 23
Palm Beach Post (scroll down): " Scouts for the New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals attended Sunday's game at Tropicana Field when Willis allowed three runs in a complete-game loss to the Devil Rays. The Arizona Republic reported Monday that the Diamondbacks have had discussions with the Marlins about acquiring Willis to form a solid 1-2 punch with Brandon Webb.""

Krusty
05-23-2006, 09:27 AM
As mentioned, any deal for Willis will probably involved Homer Bailey. And with Krivsky's first amateur draft approaching, I think you'll see alot of garbage from the Bowden and O'Brien ERAs will get kicked to the curb shortly.

But if the hangup to a Willis deal is Homer Bailey, then the Reds aren't interested in winning immediately. I think Krivsky knows it will take two or three drafts to restock the farm system with quality arms that are along the same lines of the Minnesota Twins organization. But to acquire a 24-year old Willis that will be around for five or more years if the Reds sign him to a contract extension, it might be worth trading Homer Bailey and hope that Krivsky can have three solid staffs to stock the farm system.

Safe at Home
05-23-2006, 09:40 AM
Well you know theres 3 teams that will get him its NY, NY OR BOSTON (and maybe St. Louis the Yankees of the NL).

dabvu2498
05-23-2006, 09:42 AM
We're missing one thing here... I think someone may have mentioned it earlier...

Willis will be much more valuable in July, closer to the deadline. He's not going anywhere for a couple months. So all those wonderful stats will change with 10-12 more starts.

Red Heeler
05-23-2006, 09:48 AM
I don't think they care about what the ML team does this year, so ERA doesn't matter. And they have a lot more than Olsen. Johnson and Volstad are two very good prospects among others (Tankersley, Petit, etc). I think any Willis deal would have to involve Kearns and/or Bruce. And I'm not sure I want him bad enough.

If the Reds could get Willis for Kearns and Bailey, I would be doing cartwheels.

GoReds
05-23-2006, 09:52 AM
If the Marlins get the package they want, I don't doubt that they would move on it now. Waiting till the trade deadline won't yield that much more in a package than what they could get now. It also increases the odds that Willis could either get hurt or continue to get poor support behind him, thereby weakening their position.

I love the promise of Bailey, but Wood is putting up comparable numbers without the hype.

If Castellini wants to really prove how much he wants the Reds to win and win now, it won't be because of the message received in dealing Pena for Arroyo - it would be in dealing for someone of Willis' ilk. So far, there has been some positive vibes exuded by the Castellini regime. Now's the time to follow that up with a bold statement. Dealing for Willis is pretty bold.

Highlifeman21
05-23-2006, 10:38 AM
I so disagree. This guy is the most athletic pitcher in the league. He has four top notch pitches he can throw for strikes.



Huh!?!? He pitches for the Marlins. He won 26.5 percent of his team's wins last year.


If he has 4 top notch pitches that he can throw for strikes, then why the struggle this year? He's getting knocked around the yard like a kid getting held up for his lunch money.

The Marlins stunk last year, and they stink this year, so him winning 26.5% of their games last year just tells me that he had some wins on a bad team, and he had a chunk of them. Dave Williams won 10 games for the Pirates last year, what do we know about him?

My whole point was that if you do ship away the farm for 1 guy, there will be unreasonable (or maybe reasonable, depending how you view the trade) pressure on that 1 guy to be superhuman since you most likely gave away a ton of players for the 1 guy.

While Willis might be athletic, his mechanics are far from conventional, and when something is going wrong in his motion (like it is now), there are too many moving parts to try and sort out and fix.

Let the Yankees have him and be done with this topic.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 10:42 AM
I have no problems at all with the Reds pursuing Willis--if you have the opportunity to snag a pitcher like him, you do it.

Problem is, the Reds just don't have the prospects the Marlins will be looking for. Particularly when you're talking about talent-laden teams such as the Mets and D-Backs (the Yanks system doesn't impress me at all, I'd be surprised if Dontrelle ends up there.)

In short, trading for Willis = good idea. Reds having the chips to trade for Willis = not a chance.

lollipopcurve
05-23-2006, 11:26 AM
It would take Bailey and Bruce, at least, I think. As others have noted, the Reds can't compete with Arizona, or in my opinion, with the Mets (Milledge plus others) if those teams are bent on acquiring Willis. Still, it's a discussion the Reds should be in on, though I think I'm of the mind the price would be too high. Very tough call.

traderumor
05-23-2006, 11:32 AM
Thanks, Steel for the stats I was just wondering about. The downside to Willis talk is that he is a put the ball in play pitcher, and our defense is as bad as the Marlins. It is good to see that part of the problem has been luck and defense.

Willis is due a payday at a young age, but he has performed at a young age, at the major league level. We have no one in the minors ready to step up for the next 2-3 years. Help is going to have to come from the outside and we are likely going to have to either pay for it or try the failed approach of throwing crap at the wall and hope that it turns into a pearl. Krivsky and Cast seem willing to do the former, just a matter of finding the right target at the right price.

As for giving up Bailey and Bruce, sure, they are just as likely (actually more) to flame as they are to ever help the Cincinnati Reds.

lollipopcurve
05-23-2006, 11:38 AM
As for giving up Bailey and Bruce, sure, they are just as likely (actually more) to flame as they are to ever help the Cincinnati Reds.

I disagree. If these players aren't rushed, I think they have an excellent chance of helping the Reds for several years at a reasonable cost. That's why I wouldn't make the deal... but, as I said, it isn't an easy call by any means.

WVRed
05-23-2006, 11:40 AM
I have no problems at all with the Reds pursuing Willis--if you have the opportunity to snag a pitcher like him, you do it.

Problem is, the Reds just don't have the prospects the Marlins will be looking for. Particularly when you're talking about talent-laden teams such as the Mets and D-Backs (the Yanks system doesn't impress me at all, I'd be surprised if Dontrelle ends up there.)

In short, trading for Willis = good idea. Reds having the chips to trade for Willis = not a chance.

The Mets farm system outside of Lastings Milledge is just as barren as the Yankees or even the Reds. They shouldn't even be mentioned in the same category as Arizona.

Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Connor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, and Chris Young all in Baseball America's top 25. This system is flat out filthy, and if the Snakes pony up the dough, Dontrelle is all theirs.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 11:42 AM
It would take Bailey and Bruce, at least, I think. As others have noted, the Reds can't compete with Arizona, or in my opinion, with the Mets (Milledge plus others) if those teams are bent on acquiring Willis. Still, it's a discussion the Reds should be in on, though I think I'm of the mind the price would be too high. Very tough call.
Personally, if the Reds have to give up Bruce and Bailey then I think they would be wise to look elsewhere. The Reds have the makings of a very nice future and I have a feeling this draft could be good for them. The core of this team is in their early to mid 20s and have their best years ahead of them. Willis would look great in Red, but is that all they would need to make a run at this thing? Maybe if Willis goes 8 or 9 every night. The BP is still a horror show. So more pieces would have to be moved to make a legitimate run. I think they can make some deals to get some solid BP arms (note: multiple) and that would help this year more than Willis by himself would.
BA just issued their Top 200 for the upcoming draft and the one thing that struck me is that, even devoid of top tier talent, it is still a deep draft. Ian Kennedy is ranked 40th. A little while back people on this board wanted him at 8. So it is plausible for Cincy to get 2 top college arms in this draft. So if they were to get stud at 8 and (humor me) Kennedy in the 2nd, how does Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and 2 2006 college draftees look in 2-3 years? That's not even mentioning Wood, who would probably be 1 year away. So before we trade the farm for Willis, I would like to reserve judgement on what they need to until after the draft.
Then again, if we could score Willis and Cabrera for Deno, I'd be all over it. Though it would kill a lot of the material on the board.:)

lollipopcurve
05-23-2006, 12:19 PM
how does Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and 2 2006 college draftees look in 2-3 years?

Tenuous. Harang is not locked up, Arroyo will be heading to FA, and everybody else is unproven. That's what makes the acquisition of Willis now look so tempting.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 12:30 PM
Tenuous. Harang is not locked up, Arroyo will be heading to FA, and everybody else is unproven. That's what makes the acquisition of Willis now look so tempting.
Who's to say Willis would be locked up long-term?

M2
05-23-2006, 12:41 PM
Who's to say Willis would be locked up long-term?

No one, but he'd share the 2006-2008 window into which Harang and Arroyo currently fit.

Odds are that Bailey won't even arrive in the majors and be a decent pitcher until after that window closes. That's not a knock on Bailey, it's just the reality of pitching development.

So do you try to strike inside the 2006-2008 that's currently presenting itself or is 2009 and beyond your target? IMO, if you aim for the former you've got plenty of time to build for the latter (and that will require near constant adjustment anyway).

If you aim for the latter then you're almost sure to miss the former and there's a significantly high chance of having the entire 2009 plan unravel on you well before you get there. It's what happened to the Reds in 2003 when Ty Howington, Ricardo Aramboles and Dustin Moseley failed to materialize. In retrospect we can see it was a bad plan, but back in 2001 I remember a lot of folks insisting it was a brilliant design.

lollipopcurve
05-23-2006, 12:51 PM
Who's to say Willis would be locked up long-term?

Not saying that -- the argument for getting him now is to make a run in 2006-2008, I think. The downside, obviously, is that he'd get hurt or pitch poorly, all the while carrying a sizeable salary, the team wouldn't compete, and the top prospect pool would be severely diminished.

I prefer that the team build the middle/back of the roster, lock up core players from the current group, and keep what appears to be its best future talent around. But I tend to be quite loyal/conservative in that regard. The arguments made to acquire Willis are certainly reasonable.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 12:52 PM
No one, but he'd share the 2006-2008 window into which Harang and Arroyo currently fit.

Odds are that Bailey won't even arrive in the majors and be a decent pitcher until after that window closes. That's not a knock on Bailey, it's just the reality of pitching development.

So do you try to strike inside the 2006-2008 that's currently presenting itself or is 2009 and beyond your target? IMO, if you aim for the former you've got plenty of time to build for the latter (and that will require near constant adjustment anyway).

If you aim for the latter then you're almost sure to miss the former and there's a significantly high chance of having the entire 2009 plan unravel on you well before you get there. It's what happened to the Reds in 2003 when Ty Howington, Ricardo Aramboles and Dustin Moseley failed to materialize. In retrospect we can see it was a bad plan, but back in 2001 I remember a lot of folks insisting it was a brilliant design.
It is difficult for anyone outside of the FO to know what the plan is. But my personal opinion is that getting Willis will not help this ballclub until other changes are made. If the FO sees BP upgrades on the horizon, I would be more accepting of a Willis deal. If that's the only move that will help the club, then absolutely not. It won't be worth trading the cream of the thin crop for an SP when the BP is in the state it is currently in.
But again, I can't predict the future. What if the new FO plans on dumping FLo, Kearns and/or Dunn in the next 2 years? Then everything would be thrown out of whack and a Willis deal would be out of the question. If they plan on keeping them all in Cincy long-term, then the window becomes much larger and waiting for Bailey, Wood, Bruce and (hopefully) college pitchers drafted this year isn't out of the question. I guess I was assuming in my last post that they will be here long-term. Good point, since I didn't look at the short-term part of it.

saboforthird
05-23-2006, 12:57 PM
What would you rank Willis as right now, a #2-#3 pitcher? Just curious, I know his status would automatically be elevated for the Reds, just by sitting on the bench. :D

registerthis
05-23-2006, 12:59 PM
What would you rank Willis as right now, a #2-#3 pitcher? Just curious, I know his status would automatically be elevated for the Reds, just by sitting on the bench. :D

When Willis is on, he's a #1, no question about it. There are some legitimate questions about his mechanics, however, and he's had a rough start to the season. By no means does that mean he should be written off, but he should be approached cautiously.

Worth the risk, though, IMO.

Jr's Boy
05-23-2006, 01:00 PM
Harang,Arroyo,Willis,=contender.:thumbup:

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 01:22 PM
Harang,Arroyo,Willis,=contender.:thumbup:
Hopefully they go at least 8 every night.

Willis to me is a #1 on most teams. Obviously a #1 in Cincy.

reds44
05-23-2006, 01:24 PM
I really don't think you would have to trade Homer and Bruce to get Willis. You would have to trade one along with some other prospect, IMO.

M2
05-23-2006, 01:29 PM
Harang,Arroyo,Willis,=contender.:thumbup:

gm trotted out a nifty little piece of info prior to the season where he noted that teams that get three starters who can pitch 200 IP tend to win bunches of games (90+ in most cases if memory serves).

REDREAD
05-23-2006, 01:58 PM
Dontrelle's 24 years-old. IMO, he'd be worth the gutting.

I totally agree. It's not as if there's a lot of meat to gut.. Maybe 3-4 legit prospects in the entire minor league system, and they're at the lower levels.

I've got to think though that the Reds would have to be willing to give up Edwin Encarcion as part of the package to even get the Marlins talking. And I'd do it, because we need pitching more than anything, even though I really like EdE.

Spitball
05-23-2006, 02:05 PM
If he has 4 top notch pitches that he can throw for strikes, then why the struggle this year? He's getting knocked around the yard like a kid getting held up for his lunch money.

There are lots of guys out there with great mechanics that are getting kicked around, also. As has been said, the guy has been ROY and runner-up to the Cy Young Award with the same mechanics.


The Marlins stunk last year, and they stink this year, so him winning 26.5% of their games last year just tells me that he had some wins on a bad team, and he had a chunk of them.

The Marlins won 83 games last year. That isn't stinking. Willis's 26.5% is the largest percent of wins by one pitcher for a winning team in more than 30 years.


My whole point was that if you do ship away the farm for 1 guy, there will be unreasonable (or maybe reasonable, depending how you view the trade) pressure on that 1 guy to be superhuman since you most likely gave away a ton of players for the 1 guy.

While Willis might be athletic, his mechanics are far from conventional, and when something is going wrong in his motion (like it is now), there are too many moving parts to try and sort out and fix.

Let the Yankees have him and be done with this topic.

There have been lots of successful pitchers with funky mechanics. This guy has proven he can pitch. Why worry that he might feel pressure? He would be on a team with names like Griffey and Dunn. I doubt he is that sensitive.

osuceltic
05-23-2006, 02:19 PM
Coming in a little late to this, but if he's out there, you have to go all-out to get him. Encarnacion? Gone. Bailey? Gone. Bruce? Gone. Kearns? Gone.

Willis is a 24-year-old ace. A legitimate Cy Young candidate year after year. He makes everyone better. Arroyo is your No. 2, Harang your No. 3 ... that's a contending starting staff. You get Willilis and you lock him up. It's the kind of move the Red Sox made with Pedro -- maybe you overpay, but he makes you a contender year after year.

Let's say it takes Encarnacion, Bailey, Bruce and Kearns ... So what? You stick Aurilia or Freel at third. Bailey and Bruce? Who knows? What are the chances Homer Bailey ever becomes Dontrelle Willis? 1 in 1,000? 1 in 10,000? Kearns is just the cost of doing business. Substitute Lopez for Kearns and I still do it.

You can't overestimate the impact a guy like Willis would have. If he's out there, you have to do everything you can to get him.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 02:23 PM
Coming in a little late to this, but if he's out there, you have to go all-out to get him. Encarnacion? Gone. Bailey? Gone. Bruce? Gone. Kearns? Gone.

Willis is a 24-year-old ace. A legitimate Cy Young candidate year after year. He makes everyone better. Arroyo is your No. 2, Harang your No. 3 ... that's a contending starting staff. You get Willilis and you lock him up. It's the kind of move the Red Sox made with Pedro -- maybe you overpay, but he makes you a contender year after year.

Let's say it takes Encarnacion, Bailey, Bruce and Kearns ... So what? You stick Aurilia or Freel at third. Bailey and Bruce? Who knows? What are the chances Homer Bailey ever becomes Dontrelle Willis? 1 in 1,000? 1 in 10,000? Kearns is just the cost of doing business. Substitute Lopez for Kearns and I still do it.

You can't overestimate the impact a guy like Willis would have. If he's out there, you have to do everything you can to get him.
The Red Sox didn't nearly give up as much for Pedro as what is being proposed here. Pavano and Armas? You are saying EdE, Bailey, Bruce and Kearns/Lopez? Come on, that is ludicrous. I'd rather them go out and get someone on the free agent market than making that ridiculous deal.

Highlifeman21
05-23-2006, 02:24 PM
There are lots of guys out there with great mechanics that are getting kicked around, also. As has been said, the guy has been ROY and runner-up to the Cy Young Award with the same mechanics.



The Marlins won 83 games last year. That isn't stinking. Willis's 26.5% is the largest percent of wins by one pitcher for a winning team in more than 30 years.



There have been lots of successful pitchers with funky mechanics. This guy has proven he can pitch. Why worry that he might feel pressure? He would be on a team with names like Griffey and Dunn. I doubt he is that sensitive.

I strongly feel "what have you done for me lately", and in 2006, the answer is crap. Law of averages says over the big picture, Willis' mechanics won't get any better and I think he'll have an average career at best. I shudder to think that he's already peaked and currently on the wrong side of the mountain.


Ok, he won 26.5% of their games. That's a cute stat, but doesn't tell me much except that he won 22 games. Will he ever do that again? He was their only good arm last year, he's their only good arm this year. None of his stats this year suggest he'll turn it around. He doesn't look to fool and or overpower people this year.

Again, small sample size. He's proven he's had 1 lights out year (last year), a solid rookie season (2003), a season to forget about (2004) and this year he's currently sporting a robust 5.12 ERA and is below a 2:1 K:BB. Less than 700 career IP, small sample size. Remind me again why I'm supposed to be excited about this kid?

As for feeling the pressure if he was added to our staff, he'd be the "biggest name" pitcher, and I guarantee everyone on this board, all the other fans, as well as the FO would demand results for the money he makes, as well as what ridiculous deal we'd have to make to obtain him.

REDREAD
05-23-2006, 02:27 PM
As for Deno, I'd like to keep him around mainly because I'd like to see the Reds deal away Kearns and/or Jr. to help round out the club and Deno's a quality discount replacement option. He's a good sleeper and smaller market teams can use guys like that. Honestly, I doubt many teams value him nearly as much as Reds fans do.


Exactly. My guess is that Deno gets a big YAWN from most teams and their fans. He can't even keep a roster spot on the Reds, yet some posters treat him like the next Carlos Beltran.




No, but you do trade him for a 24-year-old stud in the majors. Look at the effect that Arroyo's had. Add a pitcher in front of him and Harang and you've got the makings of something.

Exactly, if you trade for Willis (even if it costs EdE) and somehow get another .500 pitcher for the #4 slot (possibly Claussen), and beef up the pen, you've got a bona fide contender.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 02:35 PM
Willis is a 24-year-old ace. A legitimate Cy Young candidate year after year. He makes everyone better. Arroyo is your No. 2, Harang your No. 3 ... that's a contending starting staff. You get Willilis and you lock him up. It's the kind of move the Red Sox made with Pedro -- maybe you overpay, but he makes you a contender year after year.
He isnt showing anything "ACE" like this year. Nothing close to it.
As for the comparison to Pedro...please dont do that. Pedro was coming off a year where he had a 1.90 ERA, 305 strikeouts, an 11.5/2.5 k/bb ratio, and was allowing just 5.89 hits per 9 innings the year before. Dontrelle on the otherhand was nowhere near those numbers last year....or any year of his career for that matter. Dontrelle is no Pedro, that was a very bad comparison.



Let's say it takes Encarnacion, Bailey, Bruce and Kearns ... So what? You stick Aurilia or Freel at third. Bailey and Bruce? Who knows? What are the chances Homer Bailey ever becomes Dontrelle Willis? 1 in 1,000? 1 in 10,000? Kearns is just the cost of doing business. Substitute Lopez for Kearns and I still do it.
Well as a 19 year old, Jay Bruce has 2 fewer home runs already than Adam Dunn did in the Midwest League and 4 fewer than Kearns did. He is also slugging .559. I would take my chances with Bruce. Encarnacion is proving right now that he can play. Kearns is doing the same thing. Bailey on the otherhand is on the right track. So you get rid of 2 guys who are producing very well for you, who are both young, then two of the best prospects you have seen in a long time in the system for a guy with an ERA that looks like a slugging percentage of an all star?



You can't overestimate the impact a guy like Willis would have. If he's out there, you have to do everything you can to get him.
Yeah...he is really impacting Florida this year. In the loss column.

M2
05-23-2006, 02:39 PM
Exactly, if you trade for Willis (even if it costs EdE) and somehow get another .500 pitcher for the #4 slot (possibly Claussen), and beef up the pen, you've got a bona fide contender.

Well, I'd draw a line at EdE and hold it (IMO the club is going to need him in order to capitalize on a 2007-8 window), but Willis to front the rotation sure does line up the pitching ducks, doesn't he?

osuceltic
05-23-2006, 02:42 PM
The Red Sox didn't nearly give up as much for Pedro as what is being proposed here. Pavano and Armas? You are saying EdE, Bailey, Bruce and Kearns/Lopez? Come on, that is ludicrous. I'd rather them go out and get someone on the free agent market than making that ridiculous deal.
Pavano and Armas were advanced pitching prospects, considered (hyped) among the best in the game. The truth is, the Marlins probably don't trade Willis unless they get similar pitching prospects in return -- and the Reds don't have them.

There is a tendency to really, really overrate Reds players and prospects here. The only guy in this group who really looks like a possible star to me is Encarnacion. Bailey is so far away, you can't consider him anything more than a wish at this point. Same for Bruce. Kearns has yet to put together a good full season. Lopez is a good hitter for a middle infielder, but a poor fielder.

There is nothing ridiculous about that deal. Willis is going to cost a lot. He should. As for going out and getting someone on the free agent market ... good luck. Guys like Willis sign with the Yankees or the Red Sox. Guys like Milton sign with the Reds.

M2
05-23-2006, 02:46 PM
Again, small sample size. He's proven he's had 1 lights out year (last year), a solid rookie season (2003), a season to forget about (2004) and this year he's currently sporting a robust 5.12 ERA and is below a 2:1 K:BB. Less than 700 career IP, small sample size. Remind me again why I'm supposed to be excited about this kid?

You complain about his career being a small sample size and then you base your entire take on the guy on a handful of starts this month?

Note to self: Don't seek pitcher evaluations from Highlifeman21.

He's 24 with career stats that are off the charts compared to anything the Reds have been able to stick in the rotation over past decade. If you can't get excited about that, I suggest an MAOI.

osuceltic
05-23-2006, 02:49 PM
He isnt showing anything "ACE" like this year. Nothing close to it.
As for the comparison to Pedro...please dont do that. Pedro was coming off a year where he had a 1.90 ERA, 305 strikeouts, an 11.5/2.5 k/bb ratio, and was allowing just 5.89 hits per 9 innings the year before. Dontrelle on the otherhand was nowhere near those numbers last year....or any year of his career for that matter. Dontrelle is no Pedro, that was a very bad comparison.


Well as a 19 year old, Jay Bruce has 2 fewer home runs already than Adam Dunn did in the Midwest League and 4 fewer than Kearns did. He is also slugging .559. I would take my chances with Bruce. Encarnacion is proving right now that he can play. Kearns is doing the same thing. Bailey on the otherhand is on the right track. So you get rid of 2 guys who are producing very well for you, who are both young, then two of the best prospects you have seen in a long time in the system for a guy with an ERA that looks like a slugging percentage of an all star?


Yeah...he is really impacting Florida this year. In the loss column.

Pedro ... I wasn't saying Willis is Pedro. I'm saying he'd be the same kind of acquisition -- a legitimate ace, in his prime, who makes you a contender every year.

Bailey and Bruce are the best prospects we've had since ... Ty Howington and Joey Votto. Or is it Chris Gruler and Mark Schramkek? Where does Bobby Basham fit in? And I haven't even mentioned Ricardo Aramboles.

You make the deal I'm proposing and you stick Freel at third, FeLo at short (or Phillips if you trade FeLo instead of Kearns), Aurilia at second (or Phillips ... ), and Denorfia in right. And you add Willis to your rotation. You're telling me that Willis with that lineup isn't a better foundation than we have right now? You still have Dunn, Junior, Phillips, Denorfia, either FeLo or Kearns, the catchers, Hatteberg, Freel, Aurilia ... and you add Dontrelle Willis.

You have to do that. Unfortunately, I don't think the Marlins go for it.

Chip R
05-23-2006, 02:56 PM
The thought of waiting for Homer Bailey to make his Reds debut in 2009, only to grab his elbow on the third pitch of the game, makes me sleepy.

You misspelled 2007.

OldXOhio
05-23-2006, 02:56 PM
The Cardinals in recent years have been a model for this sort of thing (Mulder, Rolen, etc) and I wouldn't say they've had a noteworthy minor league system. Relinquish a few major league level serviceable parts along with some strong minor league talent and players the caliber of Willis can be had. All the while you keep the core of your team intact.

And if we've learned anything from the past 5+ seasons, waiting on future all stars to develop in the minors often leaves you doing just that....waiting. This team is not the far from contending, even in its current form. Adding a Willis would have a multiple rippling effect on this organization and very few of them are not positive.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 02:57 PM
Pedro ... I wasn't saying Willis is Pedro. I'm saying he'd be the same kind of acquisition -- a legitimate ace, in his prime, who makes you a contender every year.

Bailey and Bruce are the best prospects we've had since ... Ty Howington and Joey Votto. Or is it Chris Gruler and Mark Schramkek? Where does Bobby Basham fit in? And I haven't even mentioned Ricardo Aramboles.

You make the deal I'm proposing and you stick Freel at third, FeLo at short (or Phillips if you trade FeLo instead of Kearns), Aurilia at second (or Phillips ... ), and Denorfia in right. And you add Willis to your rotation. You're telling me that Willis with that lineup isn't a better foundation than we have right now? You still have Dunn, Junior, Phillips, Denorfia, either FeLo or Kearns, the catchers, Hatteberg, Freel, Aurilia ... and you add Dontrelle Willis.

You have to do that. Unfortunately, I don't think the Marlins go for it.
And in 3 years, when Willis walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to pitch in NY, we then have nothing.

And the Marlins would do that trade in a second. It would be the heist of the century.

Two top 10 picks in the last two years, EdE who is playing like a top 10 pick and Kearns. I can't remember a deal where one player got as much as you are proposing.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 02:58 PM
The Cardinals in recent years have been a model for this sort of thing (Mulder, Rolen, etc) and I wouldn't say they've had a noteworthy minor league system. Relinquish a few major league level serviceable parts along with some strong minor league talent and players the caliber of Willis can be had.

And if we've learned anything from the past 5+ seasons, waiting on future all stars to develop in the minors often leaves you doing just that....waiting. This team is not the far from contending, even in its current form. Adding a Willis would have a multiple rippling effect on this team, this organization and very few of them are not positive.
The Cards also have a bigger payroll than Cincy. That means a lot when you have FA around the corner for some of these guys.

M2
05-23-2006, 03:01 PM
You misspelled 2007.

Let's hope he doesn't get a Reithing like that.

Chip R
05-23-2006, 03:03 PM
Let's hope he doesn't get a Reithing like that.

From your lips to God's ears. BTW, welcome back. :)

REDREAD
05-23-2006, 03:04 PM
The Red Sox didn't nearly give up as much for Pedro as what is being proposed here. Pavano and Armas? You are saying EdE, Bailey, Bruce and Kearns/Lopez? Come on, that is ludicrous. I'd rather them go out and get someone on the free agent market than making that ridiculous deal.

Actually, I'd say at the time that Armas and Pavano were at least as highly though of by the experts as Homer is now. I remember reading how people said that the Expos got a great haul for Pedro, because they were forced to trade him, how they got the Red Sox to bid against themselves, etc.

Of course, a little hindsight shows that the Red Sox handily won the deal.

Remember the four players that Arizonia traded for Schilling? Not many people do :laugh: . I don't remember many people at the time thinking that Philly got robbed.

The only risk for trading for Willis is if he gets hurt. It's almost impossible to lose that trade. Give them the entire Reds farm system. The odds say that the Marlins would get (at most) two average players.

I'm like osuceltic, I'd be hard pressed to turn down any offer the Marlins made.

GoReds
05-23-2006, 03:04 PM
Has the payroll for future years already been established? News to me if true.

We have a new owner who wants a winning team and needs to do something to energize the fan base. Let's face it, the fans aren't totally stupid - they know that the Reds have questionable pitching.

IMO, this is an IDEAL situation for the new ownership to reach the masses. It's not an opportunity that will present itself often.

Let's worry about the signing of these guys when we see how the moves play out and the payroll and expectations are set.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 03:07 PM
Actually, I'd say at the time that Armas and Pavano were at least as highly though of by the experts as Homer is now. I remember reading how people said that the Expos got a great haul for Pedro, because they were forced to trade him, how they got the Red Sox to bid against themselves, etc.

Of course, a little hindsight shows that the Red Sox handily won the deal.

Remember the four players that Arizonia traded for Schilling? Not many people do :laugh: . I don't remember many people at the time thinking that Philly got robbed.

The only risk for trading for Willis is if he gets hurt. It's almost impossible to lose that trade. Give them the entire Reds farm system. The odds say that the Marlins would get (at most) two average players.

I'm like osuceltic, I'd be hard pressed to turn down any offer the Marlins made.
OK, now say Homer is Pavano. Does that mean Armas equates to Kearns, EdE and Bruce?

And don't forget, Boston has the $ where they don't have to worry about losing people down the road. We are still talking about the Reds, the same team who draws 18-20k on a weekend when they are in first.

REDREAD
05-23-2006, 03:07 PM
Well, I'd draw a line at EdE and hold it (IMO the club is going to need him in order to capitalize on a 2007-8 window), but Willis to front the rotation sure does line up the pitching ducks, doesn't he?

I'd like to keep EdE too, but I think it's the only chip that would get the Marlins even remotely interested.

Homer, Votto, Denoforia, and the other names thrown out here aren't going to get them that interested. They aren't going to want Kearns, as he's going to be too expensive for them next year (whether he produces or not). I doubt they'd want Lopez either, since he's on the cusp of a big payday.

Florida is going to want at least one sure thing in the deal. EdE is the only guy we have that fits that profile.

I grab the ace and worry about filling the whole at 3b later, as much as I'd hate to see EdE go.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 03:09 PM
Has the payroll for future years already been established? News to me if true.

We have a new owner who wants a winning team and needs to do something to energize the fan base. Let's face it, the fans aren't totally stupid - they know that the Reds have questionable pitching.

IMO, this is an IDEAL situation for the new ownership to reach the masses. It's not an opportunity that will present itself often.

Let's worry about the signing of these guys when we see how the moves play out and the payroll and expectations are set.
I'd be very worried about trading 4 legitimate prospects/players for a guy we might not be able to sign in 2-3 years. And if the fans want the new owner to go for it, maybe there should be some more people showing up. Someone has to help pay for Willis.:)

Newman4
05-23-2006, 03:10 PM
I vote for EdE, Homer, Kearns and Bruce being too much for Willis.

traderumor
05-23-2006, 03:11 PM
OK, now say Homer is Pavano. Does that mean Armas equates to Kearns, EdE and Bruce?

And don't forget, Boston has the $ where they don't have to worry about losing people down the road. We are still talking about the Reds, the same team who draws 18-20k on a weekend when they are in first.Yet, they let Pedro walk....

REDREAD
05-23-2006, 03:13 PM
And in 3 years, when Willis walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to pitch in NY, we then have nothing.
.

But the dilemma is that if we don't add an ace pitcher, we're going to have nothing in 3 years anyhow. We've got a big black hole in our minors. The former good Bowden position players are going to be expensive and/or gone in 3 years. With the exception of EdE and a couple kids in the pen, isn't the whole team going to be FA eligible in 3 years or less?

That's the timebomb we are faced with. I have faith in Wayne, but it's going to be just about impossible to rebuild the farm system fast enough to even replace the losses we may have to absorb, because Wayne inherited a bare system.

REDREAD
05-23-2006, 03:20 PM
OK, now say Homer is Pavano. Does that mean Armas equates to Kearns, EdE and Bruce?

And don't forget, Boston has the $ where they don't have to worry about losing people down the road. We are still talking about the Reds, the same team who draws 18-20k on a weekend when they are in first.

Well, I don't think the Marlins would want Kearns.

Yes, I'd say that at the time, you could say that Homer, EdE, Kearns, and Bruce is roughly equal to Pavano and Armas. Pavano and Armas were among the top 2 prospects in the game, and they were a lot closer to the majors than Homer. IIRC, both Pavano and Armas were in the majors in less than a year after that trade was made.

Homer and Bruce are a long way off. Kearns has had an erratic career and is getting expensive. DanO wasted a big opportunity to trade Kearns. Frankly, I think Kearns value has really dropped. The perception (I imagine) is that teams would rather sign a Reggie Sanders/Guillen type guy in the free agent market for 3-4 million than to give up what the Reds would ask for Kearns.
I wish Kearns the best, but his star has clearly faded each year.

Not to sidetrack the thread, but if the Reds needed a rightfielder, would you be that anxiouis to give up quality cheap pitching for Kearns? I don't think many people on this board would.

OldXOhio
05-23-2006, 03:23 PM
And in 3 years, when Willis walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to pitch in NY, we then have nothing.



And in 3 years when Dunn walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to play in HOU....

And in 2 years when Arroyo walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to play in BOS....

And....

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 03:25 PM
And in 3 years when Dunn walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to play in HOU....

And in 2 years when Arroyo walks b/c he wants too much money and wants to play in BOS....

And....
At least we'd have Willis, since we traded everyone else in the system to get him.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 03:25 PM
Yet, they let Pedro walk....
That was more about what they perceived his value to be at that time They're not really struggling w/o him.

OldXOhio
05-23-2006, 03:26 PM
I wish Kearns the best, but his star has clearly faded each year.



Just out of curiousity, if 26 year old Austin Kearns holds up this year and fullfills his .290-33-105 projection, what is his star doing then?

Falls City Beer
05-23-2006, 03:27 PM
Just out of curiousity, if 26 year old Austin Kearns holds up this year and fullfills his .290-33-105 projection, what is his star doing then?

Then he becomes the most expensive paper tiger on earth.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 03:28 PM
In 1997 Pavano was the 17th rated prospect by BA and Armas wasn't ranked.

pedro
05-23-2006, 03:32 PM
Then he becomes the most expensive paper tiger on earth.

I prefer Paper Lions

http://static.flickr.com/19/22964100_ba7f973eb8.jpg

Joseph
05-23-2006, 03:32 PM
In 1997 Pavano was the 17th rated prospect by BA and Armas wasn't ranked.

Let's not cloud memory with statistics. ;)

I would not give up those four for Willis. Peavy maybe, not the D-Train.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 03:35 PM
Pedro ... I wasn't saying Willis is Pedro. I'm saying he'd be the same kind of acquisition -- a legitimate ace, in his prime, who makes you a contender every year.

How would he be the same kind of acquisition? Pedro was far better than Willis in every aspect of his game.



Bailey and Bruce are the best prospects we've had since ... Ty Howington and Joey Votto. Or is it Chris Gruler and Mark Schramkek? Where does Bobby Basham fit in? And I haven't even mentioned Ricardo Aramboles.

Ty Howington was in BA top 100 one time. Joey Votto Never.
Chris Gruler never topped #77, and was only on the list once. Schramrek wasnt even close to being anywhere near a top 100 list. Basham cracked into the 60s in 2003 and that was it. Aramboles also never cracked a top 100 list.
On the otherhand Homer Bailey has cracked the top 50 twice, and Jay Bruce debuted at #76. With the way he is tearing it up this season, I wouldnt be suprised to see him in the top 50 at the end of the season as well. So they are probably the best prospects we have had since Ty Howington and Austin Kearns in 2002. 4 years isnt that long of a time, but Homer Bailey is a much better prospect than Ty Howington was IMO.



You make the deal I'm proposing and you stick Freel at third, FeLo at short (or Phillips if you trade FeLo instead of Kearns), Aurilia at second (or Phillips ... ), and Denorfia in right. And you add Willis to your rotation. You're telling me that Willis with that lineup isn't a better foundation than we have right now? You still have Dunn, Junior, Phillips, Denorfia, either FeLo or Kearns, the catchers, Hatteberg, Freel, Aurilia ... and you add Dontrelle Willis.

You have to do that. Unfortunately, I don't think the Marlins go for it.
So you downgrade offensively and defensively at third base, second base and rid your system of the two best prospects you have had in years to get a guy with a current 5.12 ERA, who isnt striking out anyone and cant even strike out twice as many guys as he walks?
Why do I not see how this is supposed to be a good idea?

registerthis
05-23-2006, 03:38 PM
He isnt showing anything "ACE" like this year. Nothing close to it.
As for the comparison to Pedro...please dont do that. Pedro was coming off a year where he had a 1.90 ERA, 305 strikeouts, an 11.5/2.5 k/bb ratio, and was allowing just 5.89 hits per 9 innings the year before. Dontrelle on the otherhand was nowhere near those numbers last year....or any year of his career for that matter. Dontrelle is no Pedro, that was a very bad comparison.

Not as much as you might think.

In his first three seasons full seasons as a starter, Martinez went 38-25, with a 3.54 cumulative ERA, 538 strikeouts and a K/9 of 8.7

Willis, in his first three full seasons, went 46-27, with a 3.27 cumulative ERA, 451 Ks and a K/9 of 6.92.

Additionally, Martinez had a K/BB ratio of 2.99, whereas Willis's was 2.60, during their respective first three years as a starter. They were each pitch-efficient, throwing just over 100/PPS, with Martinez averaging 6.49 IPS and Willis a virtually identical 6.39 IPS.

So the comparison isn't "very bad", they were actually not that far off from each other at the same point in their respective careers. (Willis, for the record, was a year younger than Pedro at the completion of his 3rd season.)

And while Willis is off to a disappointing start in 2006, I'd hardly let 1.5 months of sub-par pitching erase three years of dominance, particularly since Willis is only 24 years old.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 03:44 PM
Not as much as you might think.

In his first three seasons full seasons as a starter, Martinez went 38-25, with a 3.54 cumulative ERA, 538 strikeouts and a K/9 of 8.7

Willis, in his first three full seasons, went 46-27, with a 3.27 cumulative ERA, 451 Ks and a K/9 of 6.92.

Additionally, Martinez had a K/BB ratio of 2.99, whereas Willis's was 2.60, during their respective first three years as a starter. They were each pitch-efficient, throwing just over 100/PPS, with Martinez averaging 6.49 IPS and Willis a virtually identical 6.39 IPS.

So the comparison isn't "very bad", they were actually not that far off from each other at the same point in their respective careers. (Willis, for the record, was a year younger than Pedro at the completion of his 3rd season.)

And while Willis is off to a disappointing start in 2006, I'd hardly let 1.5 months of sub-par pitching erase three years of dominance, particularly since Willis is only 24 years old.

I wasnt comparing ages, I was comparing at the time the trade was made, and at the time, Pedro was completely dominate in every stat comparably to what Willis has done to this point except for walks, which is nearly a wash. Add in the fact he was striking out more than 2.5 more per 9 and its even more of a bad thing for Willis.

Falls City Beer
05-23-2006, 03:46 PM
Why is it a demerit to be somewhat less of a pitcher than Pedro Martinez?

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 03:48 PM
Its not, becuase Pedro in his prime was one of the best ever. It is however bad to say the two are comparable as far as what they bring to a teams rotation, because they werent even close.

BRM
05-23-2006, 03:49 PM
Why is it a demerit to be somewhat less of a pitcher than Pedro Martinez?

For the same reason it is a demerit for Adam Dunn that he's not Albert Pujols.

flyer85
05-23-2006, 03:59 PM
For the same reason it is a demerit for Adam Dunn that he's not Albert Pujols.the people that dislike Dunn only do so because the real Dunn doesn't match their caricature of Dunn. They want him to be Pujols and he is not, thus they miss the fact that Dunn is a very good player. In the end the problem is all they can focus on are a couple of warts.

OldXOhio
05-23-2006, 04:00 PM
Its not, becuase Pedro in his prime was one of the best ever. It is however bad to say the two are comparable as far as what they bring to a teams rotation, because they werent even close.

Now why you wanna go make a statement like that again? Someone just showed you that Pedro's and Dontrelle's early career numbers were in fact comparable.

Don't make the mistake of comparing 24 year old DW w/ the Red Sox version of Pedro Martinez.

MartyFan
05-23-2006, 04:03 PM
PASS...Why?

His motion is so herky jerky that he is an injury waiting to happen...his ERA is up this year and while he has flashed signs of what he did the last couple of years I believe his body is wearing out.

I do not bllame hiis era on his team.

Also, curious to know what the Yanks would have that the Marlins would want?

flyer85
05-23-2006, 04:05 PM
Now why you wanna go make a statement like that again? Someone just showed you that Pedro's and Dontrelle's early career numbers were in fact comparable.

Don't make the mistake of comparing 24 year old DW w/ the Red Sox version of Pedro Martinez.The differnce between the two is that while numbers are comparable the stuff is not. Willis has very good stuff but not the nasty and often untouchable stuff that the young Pedro had. There was a time that he had the best fastball, curveball and changeup in all of baseball. I am not sure there has ever been another pitcher that you could say that about.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 04:11 PM
Now why you wanna go make a statement like that again? Someone just showed you that Pedro's and Dontrelle's early career numbers were in fact comparable.

Don't make the mistake of comparing 24 year old DW w/ the Red Sox version of Pedro Martinez.

When Dontrelle has a season of a 1.90 ERA and 305 strikeouts while allowing fewer than 6 hits per 9 innings and striking out 11+ per 9...then talk to me about trading away all of those players. That is what Pedro put up in his final season for the Expos.

Doc. Scott
05-23-2006, 04:12 PM
I would do Kearns, Bailey and a second Reds Top 10 prospect like a Paul Janish or Miguel Perez for Willis. I might even do Kearns, Votto, and Bailey if I have a long-term deal with Dontrelle set up beforehand.

I would not give up both Bailey and Bruce. Bruce can't be traded until after the 2006 draft, anyway, except as a PTBNL.

If I have to make it Lopez and Bailey, fine. Lopez, Bailey and someone else of significance is too much. The Marlins don't really need Felipe at this point, anyway, with Ramirez and Uggla in the MI. It's one of the few solid spots on the team. They'll want outfielders or catchers much more, although I think Kearns is an iffy proposition given that he's already set to make several million in 2007 and then head to FA.

osuceltic
05-23-2006, 04:18 PM
When Dontrelle has a season of a 1.90 ERA and 305 strikeouts while allowing fewer than 6 hits per 9 innings and striking out 11+ per 9...then talk to me about trading away all of those players. That is what Pedro put up in his final season for the Expos.

You'll probably be very happy, because I doubt the Marlins accept my proposed deal anyway. So we can keep this burgeoning powerhouse together.

Falls City Beer
05-23-2006, 04:19 PM
I think Bailey, Bruce, and Votto might do it. I don't think the Marlins are looking to add red meat (such as a recognizable MLB face) to the deal--since presumably, they may not be in Florida much longer. They can think longer term in these deals. The offensive players (Bruce and Votto) are considerably closer to the majors than Bailey, and offense is what the Marlins do need more of.

flyer85
05-23-2006, 04:23 PM
I think Bailey, Bruce, and Votto might do it. I don't think the Marlins are looking to add red meat (such as a recognizable MLB face) to the deal--since presumably, they may not be in Florida much longer. They can think longer term in these deals. The offensive players (Bruce and Votto) are considerably closer to the majors than Bailey, and offense is what the Marlins do need more of.1B is not really a position of need for the Fish but OF certainly is. I would think the Snakes could be much closer to a deal if they were willing to part with 2 of Young/Quentin/Gonzalez and another prospect. The Fish could solve their serious OF problems with one deal and they are already overflowing with young arms.

OldXOhio
05-23-2006, 04:44 PM
When Dontrelle has a season of a 1.90 ERA and 305 strikeouts while allowing fewer than 6 hits per 9 innings and striking out 11+ per 9...then talk to me about trading away all of those players. That is what Pedro put up in his final season for the Expos.

You're barking up the wrong tree here. I never advocated trading all those players away. I simply found fault in your "bad comparison" comment re: DW and PM.

Spitball
05-23-2006, 05:02 PM
I strongly feel "what have you done for me lately", and in 2006, the answer is crap. Law of averages says over the big picture, Willis' mechanics won't get any better and I think he'll have an average career at best. I shudder to think that he's already peaked and currently on the wrong side of the mountain.

I'd love to hear your scouting reports on Juan Marichal, Louis Tiant, Fernando Valenzuela, Jim Bunning, Rob Nen, and Dan Quissenberry.



Ok, he won 26.5% of their games. That's a cute stat, but doesn't tell me much except that he won 22 games. Will he ever do that again? He was their only good arm last year, he's their only good arm this year. None of his stats this year suggest he'll turn it around. He doesn't look to fool and or overpower people this year.

I think my "cute stat" and 22 wins say volumes more than what you are saying. So, you have a feeling based on a slow start?



Again, small sample size. He's proven he's had 1 lights out year (last year), a solid rookie season (2003), a season to forget about (2004) and this year he's currently sporting a robust 5.12 ERA and is below a 2:1 K:BB. Less than 700 career IP, small sample size. Remind me again why I'm supposed to be excited about this kid?

Remind you? I don't think you'd listen. You talk about his career success as a small sample size yet use five starts as the foundation of your argument.

So what do you have to get excited about? I don't have any idea from your post what excites you. This guy just won 22 games over a full season. If that doesn't excite you, I don't know what will.




As for feeling the pressure if he was added to our staff, he'd be the "biggest name" pitcher, and I guarantee everyone on this board, all the other fans, as well as the FO would demand results for the money he makes, as well as what ridiculous deal we'd have to make to obtain him.

We wouldn't want that. Let's stay away from anyone who might be the "biggest name" on our staff. It would be too much pressure.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 05:06 PM
A couple of months in playoff contention can turn any fans into Yankee fans.

That's what I am getting out of this thread. Willis will not bring a trophy to Cincinnati unless he brings 4 relievers with him. Look at what some of these posts are willing to give up. One post had Bruce, Homer, EdE and Kearns or Lopez. Are you kidding me? Let's all look towards the future and try not to turn into a pack of Brian Cashmans, dumping our future for one pitcher. This thread is slowly spiraling out of control.

Puffy
05-23-2006, 05:26 PM
A couple of months in playoff contention can turn any fans into Yankee fans.

That's what I am getting out of this thread. Willis will not bring a trophy to Cincinnati unless he brings 4 relievers with him. Look at what some of these posts are willing to give up. One post had Bruce, Homer, EdE and Kearns or Lopez. Are you kidding me? Let's all look towards the future and try not to turn into a pack of Brian Cashmans, dumping our future for one pitcher. This thread is slowly spiraling out of control.

Dontrelle Willis is 24 years old!!! Getting him would bring in a true number 1 pitcher to add to the core of young players (Lopez, Dunn, Kearns, Phillips, Encarnacion). Even if you subtract one of them to add Willis its still of value for the future. I don't think you understand that. 24 years old, already established ACE. He is exactly what the Reds need.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 05:27 PM
I wasnt comparing ages, I was comparing at the time the trade was made, and at the time, Pedro was completely dominate in every stat comparably to what Willis has done to this point except for walks, which is nearly a wash. Add in the fact he was striking out more than 2.5 more per 9 and its even more of a bad thing for Willis.

My point, evidently missed, was that while Willis isn't exactly the pitcher Martinez was at 24, he's close. And the Reds would be trading for that pitcher 3 years before Martinez had his banner year in 1997.

In other words, essentially the same arguments used against trading for Willis now could have been made about Martinez in 1996.

If you want to compare pitchers, go right ahead. But at least make the comparison fair.

Cigar2
05-23-2006, 05:27 PM
Should we go after Dontrelle? Yes we should at least make a play for him but should we nuke are thin minor league staff to get him?
No, but we should at least try to get Dontrelle. Let's takes the British SAS motto Who Dares Wins in making a play for Dontrelle.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 05:32 PM
Its not, becuase Pedro in his prime was one of the best ever. It is however bad to say the two are comparable as far as what they bring to a teams rotation, because they werent even close.

You may believe that, but the numbers don't support that contention. Willis hasn't been THE best pitcher in the NL for the past 3 seasons, but he's been close. Martinez has been one of the most dominating pitchers the game has ever seen and Willis, at 24, is not far behind him. You speak of the two as if they are miles apart from each other, when the fact is that at respective stages in their careers they compare quite favorably.

As FCB said, there's nothing wrong with being a slightly worse pitcher than Pedro Martinez--which is exactly what Willis is.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 05:34 PM
Should we go after Dontrelle? Yes we should at least make a play for him but should we nuke are thin minor league staff to get him?

The minor league system is essentially nuked anyway, I don't see how trading away a handful of prospects that may or may not ever do anything for this club for a proven 24 year old ace is damaging to the team's long term health.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 05:40 PM
My point, evidently missed, was that while Willis isn't exactly the pitcher Martinez was at 24, he's close. And the Reds would be trading for that pitcher 3 years before Martinez had his banner year in 1997.

In other words, essentially the same arguments used against trading for Willis now could have been made about Martinez in 1996.

If you want to compare pitchers, go right ahead. But at least make the comparison fair.

Maybe you didnt look, but Pedro was 25 in 1997 when he put up a 1.90 ERA and struck out 305 guys for 11.5/9. Of course Martinez struck out over 9 per 9 innings at the age of 24 while posting a 3/1 k/bb ratio. Dontrelle isnt close to that.

danwl
05-23-2006, 05:42 PM
Strategically, the Marlins have more than two months before the trading deadline. I am not very sophisticated in this type of thinking; however, does it make sense for them to be putting the word out on Willis this early? My impression is that in a typical year, a lot of teams still in contention, but not dominating, at this time of the year will look to hang around the race until near the trading deadline; if they are still in contention, trade for a starter, a setup guy, a lefthanded bat, etc. for the stretch run.

To be dangling Willis at this point seems to me to signal something. Maybe it doesn't; maybe this type of "news" is typical when you are prepping for a trade deadline move of a big name. Maybe it just says they are serious about it and want to get the best deal possible; give other teams a chance to shift stuff around to make it work come July 31. OOORRR ... maybe it means they don't think Willis is going to have a solid next couple of months and trade value will actually fall; OOORRR ... maybe it means they feel like they can't make his mechanics work no matter how much they tinker, and are tired of dealing with it. It don't smell right to me.

He's supposed to be a heckuva athlete, though; I say we package Deno and Griff for him and make him play CF.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 05:45 PM
The minor league system is essentially nuked anyway, I don't see how trading away a handful of prospects that may or may not ever do anything for this club for a proven 24 year old ace is damaging to the team's long term health.

Becuase you are essentially trading away the future at 3 or 4 different positions for 1 guy. Who are you going to have to step in in the OF, 3B, SP or 1B over the next 6 years? All of those positions have now been offered up for Dontrelle now. Ok, Dontrelle replaces Bailey as a pitcher....until he walks. Who replaces Bruce? He is the guy who will be ready in 2-3 years to take over when Griffey, Dunn and Kearns are all either gone or on the verge of leaving. There is no one even remotely close to being close to taking over at 3rd base for Edwin in the minors, and we dont have a real option on the club now to take over for him. So we are looking at 2 1/2 years of Dontrelle Willis for our future at 3B, 1B and the outfiled for the next 7-10 years? Again, everyone keeps saying he is proven....it may be early this year and you can scream small sample size all you want, but he is proving that he is getting shelled this year, not that he is an ACE.

reds44
05-23-2006, 05:45 PM
It seems as if I opend a can of worms here. The thing that makes dealing with the Marlins tougher is they won't want Lopez or Dunn because they make too much cash.

Bailey or Bruce and Deno would be a must in any deal. And it would probably take 2 more decent to good prospects to get him.

reds44
05-23-2006, 05:46 PM
Becuase you are essentially trading away the future at 3 or 4 different positions for 1 guy. Who are you going to have to step in in the OF, 3B, SP or 1B over the next 6 years? All of those positions have now been offered up for Dontrelle now. Ok, Dontrelle replaces Bailey as a pitcher....until he walks. Who replaces Bruce? He is the guy who will be ready in 2-3 years to take over when Griffey, Dunn and Kearns are all either gone or on the verge of leaving. There is no one even remotely close to being close to taking over at 3rd base for Edwin in the minors, and we dont have a real option on the club now to take over for him. So we are looking at 2 1/2 years of Dontrelle Willis for our future at 3B, 1B and the outfiled for the next 7-10 years? Again, everyone keeps saying he is proven....it may be early this year and you can scream small sample size all you want, but he is proving that he is getting shelled this year, not that he is an ACE.
You don't know if they are the future because they are hit or miss guys.

And please Dontrelle had a bad first month of the season, he has been pitching much much better as of late. Willis is 24, he would be part of the future of the Reds.

dougdirt
05-23-2006, 05:54 PM
reds44, you really need to check the splits. His ERA this month is 7.71.

As for the future of the Reds, Edwin is the future of the Reds.
I will also put my faith in Jay Bruce who currently in 170 at bats is slugging .559 and has 9 home runs in the Midwest league as a 19 year old when Adam Dunn had just 11 home runs at the same age in the same league and slugged .476.
I will also take Joey Votto who is hitting .305 in AA currently at 22.

I think the only guy who is "hit or miss" in the group is Bailey, and he has the most talent out of all of them. The way he misses is if he gets hurt. Which to this point, he hasnt shown. Yes, he is just in Adv-A and has a ways to go, but dont be suprised if he sees Chattanooga this year.

Not quite hit or miss.

OldXOhio
05-23-2006, 05:55 PM
Strategically, the Marlins have more than two months before the trading deadline. I am not very sophisticated in this type of thinking; however, does it make sense for them to be putting the word out on Willis this early? My impression is that in a typical year, a lot of teams still in contention, but not dominating, at this time of the year will look to hang around the race until near the trading deadline; if they are still in contention, trade for a starter, a setup guy, a lefthanded bat, etc. for the stretch run.



We're talking about an organization that willingly firesales itself every 3-5 years, divisional races and fan attendance be damned.

reds44
05-23-2006, 05:59 PM
reds44, you really need to check the splits. His ERA this month is 7.71.

As for the future of the Reds, Edwin is the future of the Reds.
I will also put my faith in Jay Bruce who currently in 170 at bats is slugging .559 and has 9 home runs in the Midwest league as a 19 year old when Adam Dunn had just 11 home runs at the same age in the same league and slugged .476.
I will also take Joey Votto who is hitting .305 in AA currently at 22.

I think the only guy who is "hit or miss" in the group is Bailey, and he has the most talent out of all of them. The way he misses is if he gets hurt. Which to this point, he hasnt shown. Yes, he is just in Adv-A and has a ways to go, but dont be suprised if he sees Chattanooga this year.

Not quite hit or miss.
Ok and I agree if we had to give up Bruce, Bailey, EE, and Votto I wouldn't do the deal.

I really don't think we would have to give that much up though.

Btw in his last 2 games Willis has pitched 17 innings and has given up 4 runs.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 06:01 PM
Dontrelle Willis is 24 years old!!! Getting him would bring in a true number 1 pitcher to add to the core of young players (Lopez, Dunn, Kearns, Phillips, Encarnacion). Even if you subtract one of them to add Willis its still of value for the future. I don't think you understand that. 24 years old, already established ACE. He is exactly what the Reds need.
From some of the earlier posts, a lot of that core would be gone in the trade. But it is a moot point anyway.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 06:04 PM
Maybe you didnt look, but Pedro was 25 in 1997 when he put up a 1.90 ERA and struck out 305 guys for 11.5/9. Of course Martinez struck out over 9 per 9 innings at the age of 24 while posting a 3/1 k/bb ratio. Dontrelle isnt close to that.

I looked, and I saw your original post as well--there's nothing new here, Doug. In his 5th full year in the majors, Martinez put up his banner stats. This is Willis's fourth. I'm not saying Willis is a Martinez clone, but he's not as far off as you are imagining him to be either. His K rate is lower than Martinez's, but the GB/FB ratio is close, and he has a lower ERA than Martinez did at this point in his career.

Will Willis have a season identical to Martinez in 1997? Not likely--hardly any pitcher will do that. But that doesn't mean Willis can't also be extraordinarily successful, and would be well worth the investment by the Reds.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 06:07 PM
I will also put my faith in Jay Bruce who currently in 170 at bats is slugging .559 and has 9 home runs in the Midwest league as a 19 year old when Adam Dunn had just 11 home runs at the same age in the same league and slugged .476.
I will also take Joey Votto who is hitting .305 in AA currently at 22.

And I will always take established, major league top-quality talent over unproven minor league potential any day of the week. Bruce and Votto are nothing particularly special.

If it comes down to a question of trading prospects for Willis, I'd do it in a heartbeat. if we start throwing in EE and Lopez and whatnot, that's when I balk.

Puffy
05-23-2006, 06:10 PM
And I will always take established, major league top-quality talent over unproven minor league potential any day of the week. Bruce and Votto are nothing particularly special.

If it comes down to a question of trading prospects for Willis, I'd do it in a heartbeat. if we start throwing in EE and Lopez and whatnot, that's when I balk.

Exactly. If all it takes is prospects then sign me up. Besides that, isn't our hope that Krivsky restocks the farm system - and if he has to give up the Reds only good prospects, so be. He already has to built it from the ground up - better to have to do that from scratch with an established ace under your control.

reds44
05-23-2006, 06:13 PM
And I will always take established, major league top-quality talent over unproven minor league potential any day of the week. Bruce and Votto are nothing particularly special.

If it comes down to a question of trading prospects for Willis, I'd do it in a heartbeat. if we start throwing in EE and Lopez and whatnot, that's when I balk.
They wouldn't want Lopez he makes too much money for them, plus they have Hanley Ramirez as their SS who has been nothing shy of amazing this year. Unless are trying to trade Cabrerra (which is entirely possible) they don't have a need for EE.

reds44
05-23-2006, 06:13 PM
Exactly. If all it takes is prospects then sign me up. Besides that, isn't our hope that Krivsky restocks the farm system - and if he has to give up the Reds only good prospects, so be. He already has to built it from the ground up - better to have to do that from scratch with an established ace under your control.
It's the Marlins; all it would take is prospects.

Aronchis
05-23-2006, 06:15 PM
Exactly. If all it takes is prospects then sign me up. Besides that, isn't our hope that Krivsky restocks the farm system - and if he has to give up the Reds only good prospects, so be. He already has to built it from the ground up - better to have to do that from scratch with an established ace under your control.

He is a ace? Not pitching like one this year, not one in 2004 or 2003. Other than 2005, Dontrelle has never pitched "like a ace", because he isn't one.

If Krivsky needs to "rebuild the farm system from stratch"(which I doubt he actually will), then we don't have the fire power to trade for Willis.

Thus why are we talking about him? You people are creating myths.

reds44
05-23-2006, 06:18 PM
He is a ace? Not pitching like one this year, not one in 2004 or 2003. Other than 2005, Dontrelle has never pitched "like a ace", because he isn't one.

If Krivsky needs to "rebuild the farm system from stratch"(which I doubt he actually will), then we don't have the fire power to trade for Willis.

Thus why are we talking about him? You people are creating myths.
2003- 14-6 3.30 ERA = Reds' Ace (21 years old)
2004- 10-11 4.02 ERA = ok, but he did throw 200 innings(22 years old)
2005- 22-10 2.63 ERA (23 years old)
2006- Give him more time, he will come around. Sorry a bad month doesn't mean you suck.

Dontrelle outside of 04 has been nothing shy of amazing as a youngster.

Aronchis
05-23-2006, 06:21 PM
2003- 14-6 3.30 ERA = Reds' Ace (21 years old)
2004- 10-11 4.02 ERA = ok, but he did throw 200 innings(22 years old)
2005- 22-10 2.63 ERA (23 years old)
2006- Give him more time, he will come around. Sorry a bad month doesn't mean you suck.

Dontrelle outside of 04 has been nothing shy of amazing as a youngster.

Like he is alone over history and oh, that arm must be getting nice and tired at this point. Doesn't matter what Dontrelle does now or in the future, he is reaching his pricey time and decaying ability increases every year.

He simply isn't a match for us right now. One, his price and bust potential doesn't match Cincy's need for a firm foundation, neither can the Reds outbid other franchises. In otherwords, we aren't in that game.

reds44
05-23-2006, 06:24 PM
Like he is alone over history and oh, that arm must be getting nice and tired at this point. Doesn't matter what Dontrelle does now or in the future, he is reaching his pricey time and decaying ability increases every year.

He simply isn't a match for us right now. One, his price and bust potential doesn't match Cincy's need for a firm foundation, neither can the Reds outbid other franchises. In otherwords, we aren't in that game.
Cool who wants a pitcher just entering their prime? Well his "decaying" ability increases every year so why would we? Sorry, but that statement makes no sense.

To get good players, you are going to have to pay money. These are facts of life.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 06:30 PM
Like he is alone over history and oh, that arm must be getting nice and tired at this point. Doesn't matter what Dontrelle does now or in the future, he is reaching his pricey time and decaying ability increases every year.

Yep, once you hit the ripe old age of 24, it's all downhill from there.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 06:32 PM
They wouldn't want Lopez he makes too much money for them, plus they have Hanley Ramirez as their SS who has been nothing shy of amazing this year. Unless are trying to trade Cabrerra (which is entirely possible) they don't have a need for EE.

Well, they may or may not need any of the players I mentioned. I just brought them up as an example of major league talent, which I would be much more reticent to give up. I'll give up the Baileys, Bruces and Vottos of our system any day to bring in a pitcher like Willis.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2006, 06:39 PM
He is a ace? Not pitching like one this year, not one in 2004 or 2003. Other than 2005, Dontrelle has never pitched "like a ace", because he isn't one.

If the worst thing you can say about a 24 year old who was a runner up for the Cy Young award last year is that he's "Never pitched like an Ace before," then he's someone worth looking hard at. Assuming he stays healthy (and thus far, there's no reason to assume otherwise), he's at an age where he can get even better than he has been. He's not even into the prime years of his career yet, and he's already done amazing things. How can you knock that?

I don't feel like I'm going out on a limb by saying that his 2006 year, even at the point it's at right now, is going to end up being a better year than anything Homer Bailey ever produces in the major leagues. You can disagree with me on that, but the odds are on my side with this, IMO. With the history this team has had of developing nothing but clients for Tim Kremcheck, I honestly don't see how any sane Reds fan can be against selling off prep arms in A ball to get a guy like Dontrelle Willis.

reds44
05-23-2006, 06:41 PM
If the worst thing you can say about a 24 year old who was a runner up for the Cy Young award last year is that he's "Never pitched like an Ace before," then he's someone worth looking hard at. Assuming he stays healthy (and thus far, there's no reason to assume otherwise), he's at an age where he can get even better than he has been. He's not even into the prime years of his career yet, and he's already done amazing things. How can you knock that?

I don't feel like I'm going out on a limb by saying that his 2006 year, even at the point it's at right now, is going to end up being a better year than anything Homer Bailey ever produces in the major leagues. With the history this team has had of developing nothing but clients for Tim Kremcheck, I honestly don't see how any sane Reds fan can be against selling off prep arms in A ball to get a guy like Dontrelle Willis.
Yep I agree 100%. Just to add to say he hasn't pitched like an Ace is flat out wrong also.

I posted this a few posts up:

2003- 14-6 3.30 ERA = Reds' Ace (21 years old)
2004- 10-11 4.02 ERA = ok, but he did throw 200 innings(22 years old)
2005- 22-10 2.63 ERA (23 years old)
2006- Give him more time, he will come around. Sorry a bad month doesn't mean you suck.

Dontrelle outside of 04 has been nothing shy of amazing as a youngster.

registerthis
05-23-2006, 06:55 PM
I honestly don't see how any sane Reds fan can be against selling off prep arms in A ball to get a guy like Dontrelle Willis.

yep, it's very perplexing.

Puffy
05-23-2006, 06:56 PM
He is a ace? Not pitching like one this year, not one in 2004 or 2003. Other than 2005, Dontrelle has never pitched "like a ace", because he isn't one.

If Krivsky needs to "rebuild the farm system from stratch"(which I doubt he actually will), then we don't have the fire power to trade for Willis.

Thus why are we talking about him? You people are creating myths.

First, no where have I made any trade proposals, trade myths, trade anythings - beyond agreeing w/ register that if its only prospects then the Reds need to get on the horn.

Second, if you think that a 24 year old who has already been rookie of the year and a runner up Cy Young candidate is not an ace - and even funnier that at 24 he is on the "decaying ability" - then I don't know what to say.

Also, its pretty funny that you say outside of 2005 he has never pitched like an ace - gee, only one year before his 24th birthday has he ever pitched like an ace. Dude must suck to not have pitched like an ace at least 4 or 5 times before his 24 birthday.

reds44
05-23-2006, 07:07 PM
Well for now we can put this one to bed.

Gammons was just on a local Miami radio show and had this to say:

"3 teams called yesterday for D'train and were told No."


"Nobody has ever had a name for Dtrain"

"They havent ever shopped him"


http://www.marlinbaseball.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=62034&st=0&#entry1157869

Ltlabner
05-23-2006, 07:10 PM
I agree with the other posters who have said if we are giving up prospects, one of the utility guys or a catcher then by all means go for it. It would be great to bring him to town.

If you are talking about giving up one of what I would call the "core" young guys (Lopez, EE, Philips, Kearns, Herrang, etc). Then I would have to think long and hard. We finally have a group of guys that show the promise of being real contenders. I mean, here we are less than 6 months out from the "reign of DanO" and the hope is alive that we can compete and maybe for the big prize in the very near future. I'd be very cautious about giving up a key guy just to be part of "Willis Fever" along with the Yanks, Boston, Et Al.

Am I saying don't ever trade one of these guys, No. You sometimes have to take risks, and trades for good players always involve giving up something of value. I'm just saying that they show some real promise of being a contender and I'd like to see them work together for more than a few months before shipping them off willy nilly.

danwl
05-23-2006, 07:44 PM
We're talking about an organization that willingly firesales itself every 3-5 years, divisional races and fan attendance be damned.

Well, right, but they do it in a way which results in them being better afterwards, so they can be competitive. My point being that if they ARE shopping Willis now (above threads suggest not so much), maybe they have a good reason.

reds44
05-23-2006, 09:44 PM
Anybody hear Marty tonight during the game?

He said the is a rumor running wild that we might trade EE to the Marlins for Willis.

I swear to God that is waht he said.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 10:14 PM
Anybody hear Marty tonight during the game?

He said the is a rumor running wild that we might trade EE to the Marlins for Willis.

I swear to God that is waht he said.
That I would do in a second. No hesitation.

Redhook
05-23-2006, 10:22 PM
Anybody hear Marty tonight during the game?

He said the is a rumor running wild that we might trade EE to the Marlins for Willis.

I swear to God that is waht he said.

If this happens, Krivsky should have a street named after him, given a key to the city, and inducted to the Reds Hall-of-Fame effective immediately after the papers are signed.

If it sounds too good to be true, then it's probably not true.

KronoRed
05-23-2006, 10:25 PM
Who plays 3rd?

Oh wait...I know the answer, and he's not near a long term solution :help:

reds44
05-23-2006, 10:29 PM
Who plays 3rd?

Oh wait...I know the answer, and he's not near a long term solution :help:
Freel and RA would get time there.

KronoRed
05-23-2006, 10:33 PM
I'd really hate to trade EE with this organizations history of not having anyone over at 3rd base...tempting though.

edabbs44
05-23-2006, 10:38 PM
I'd really hate to trade EE with this organizations history of not having anyone over at 3rd base...tempting though.
EE is definitely a reason to smile, but if that rumor is anywhere near true where it would cost us EE and little more, I would have no problems.

Redhook
05-23-2006, 10:38 PM
I'd really hate to trade EE with this organizations history of not having anyone over at 3rd base...tempting though.

I agree about 3rd, but it's much harder to get a legit #1 starter, which I think is more important too. Plus, Aurilia could probably start at third for atleast a couple of more years. By that time I would hope that we would have a prospect ready.

This is a trade we'd have to make. Could you imagine our starting rotation in 2008 including Willis, Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey? That's a 'real nice start Clark'.

reds44
05-23-2006, 10:41 PM
I agree about 3rd, but it's much harder to get a legit #1 starter, which I think is more important too. Plus, Aurilia could probably start at third for atleast a couple of more years. By that time I would hope that we would have a prospect ready.

This is a trade we'd have to make. Could you imagine our starting rotation in 2008 including Willis, Harang, Arroyo, and Bailey? That's a 'real nice start Clark'.
:laugh:

Who is Clark?

KronoRed
05-23-2006, 10:50 PM
:laugh:

Who is Clark?
A mild mannered reporter in Metropolis?

TheBigLebowski
05-23-2006, 11:08 PM
Think he is referring to Clark from the Nat'l Lampoon's "Vacation" movies.

reds44
05-24-2006, 02:22 AM
Ok from the information I have gathered from researching and talking to various Marlin and Reds fans, this isn't this first time this has been brought up.

Apparently it has been being talked about (or at-least it has been rumored being talked about) since mid-April. I will let you know if I found out anything else.

Jr's Boy
05-24-2006, 02:34 AM
So this could mean the fish are shopping Cabrera too?Not to the Reds per say,but why carry two 3rd baseman when one wil be commanding a boatload soon.

reds44
05-24-2006, 02:35 AM
So this could mean the fish are shopping Cabrera too?Not to the Reds per say,but why carry two 3rd baseman when one wil be commanding a boatload soon.
I'd be willing to bet if they are shopping Willis then are shopping Cabrera also.

johngalt
05-24-2006, 02:50 AM
I'm not willing to give up an anchor at 3B and one of our brightest prospects in some time in order to get a pitcher who's on a surgery clock.

Highlifeman21
05-24-2006, 03:13 AM
You complain about his career being a small sample size and then you base your entire take on the guy on a handful of starts this month?

Note to self: Don't seek pitcher evaluations from Highlifeman21.

He's 24 with career stats that are off the charts compared to anything the Reds have been able to stick in the rotation over past decade. If you can't get excited about that, I suggest an MAOI.


Love that you've discounted anything I have to say about pitchers....

He's pitched 3.5 seasons, 1 of which being out of this world, 1 of which being acceptible, 1 of which being forgettable, and the 1/2 of this year being down right horrid....

His career IS a small sample size.

I'm basing my take on this guy on 3.5 years worth of body or work, 1 of which being highly inflated....

He's 24 with a small sample size, take it as it's worth.

KronoRed
05-24-2006, 03:14 AM
I still hope they Marlins would want Bruce/Votto/Bailey

I'd do that sort of deal.

RedsMan3203
05-24-2006, 03:17 AM
There are very few pitchers i'd trade for with EE. I'm sorry, but Willis isn't one of them. After a smoking hott start last year.... What the hell happend to him in the 2nd half of the year? He was gone, along with the Marlins. What happend with him at the WBC? He got smashed. What has he done this year? Nothing!

The only way you trade EE, for Willis is if you had another 3rd basemen in your system ready to come up to the bigs. We don't we bearly have a farm system.

Keep EE, Keep Kearns, Keep Dunn, Keep FeLo, Keep Phillips. Trade away the rest of the offensive players if you get the right deal.

This team is SO YOUNG. They are going to be a good team for years if we can get a few decent pitchers to go along with Harrang and Arroyo.

Don't waste a few years of rebuilding for a one time ace.

RedsMan3203
05-24-2006, 03:19 AM
Krono - I wouldn't add Bailey in that list. I want to see this kid come into this true as a Red.

Highlifeman21
05-24-2006, 03:23 AM
I'd love to hear your scouting reports on Juan Marichal, Louis Tiant, Fernando Valenzuela, Jim Bunning, Rob Nen, and Dan Quissenberry.




I think my "cute stat" and 22 wins say volumes more than what you are saying. So, you have a feeling based on a slow start?




Remind you? I don't think you'd listen. You talk about his career success as a small sample size yet use five starts as the foundation of your argument.

So what do you have to get excited about? I don't have any idea from your post what excites you. This guy just won 22 games over a full season. If that doesn't excite you, I don't know what will.





We wouldn't want that. Let's stay away from anyone who might be the "biggest name" on our staff. It would be too much pressure.

Bunning, Nenn, Marichal... Ok.... the rest of them, no good.... couple of good seasons here and there, but no HOF.

22 wins 1 year. 1 goddamn year. Hasn't come close to it any other years. Next.

I'm using 3.5 years of sample size as judgement, and you're using last year. Look at his whole body of work for christ sake. 1 year of 22 wins doesn't tell me squat. I'm not gonna trade away a farm for 1 22 win year. Would you? I think you would.

Arroyo should be the biggest name on our staff right now. Give us until the offseason to establish some pressure and some bank roll.

Patrick Bateman
05-24-2006, 03:28 AM
He's pitched 3.5 seasons, 1 of which being out of this world, 1 of which being acceptible, 1 of which being forgettable, and the 1/2 of this year being down right horrid....




I wish the Reds could get 5 guys with the so called "forgettable" numbers posted by Willis in 2004. You know a 4.02 ERA. We wouldn't want any of that.

And since when is a 3.32 ERA simply "acceptable"? Acceptable in my books is somewhere arounf league average. 3.32 is very, very good.

And Willis hasn't been down right horrid this season. He hasn't been up to par with last season, but he has a DERA of 4.02. Not what you want from Willis, but he has been unlucky this season, and his 5.00 ERA likely wont last.

I think your analysis of Willis is heavily misguided.

Highlifeman21
05-24-2006, 03:38 AM
I wish the Reds could get 5 guys with the so called "forgettable" numbers posted by Willis in 2004. You know a 4.02 ERA. We wouldn't want any of that.

And since when is a 3.32 ERA simply "acceptable"? Acceptable in my books is somewhere arounf league average. 3.32 is very, very good.

And Willis hasn't been down right horrid this season. He hasn't been up to par with last season, but he has a DERA of 4.02. Not what you want from Willis, but he has been unlucky this season, and his 5.00 ERA likely wont last.

I think your analysis of Willis is heavily misguided.


If you look at the sheer volume of accrued stats from last year, that's what largely shapes Willis' career numbers.

Seriously, last year he was lights out, had a very solid ROY season, and the season inbetween was putrid. This season? No good. Someone PLEASE defend this year's stats for him, I'm begging you.

I think my analysis of Willis is cordial, at worst.

KronoRed
05-24-2006, 03:38 AM
Krono - I wouldn't add Bailey in that list. I want to see this kid come into this true as a Red.
If he were in AA dominating I might agree, but he's years away and can tear anything at anytime.

Patrick Bateman
05-24-2006, 03:48 AM
Seriously, last year he was lights out, had a very solid ROY season, and the season inbetween was putrid.

We must have different definitions of putrid.

I call what Dave Williams displayed on the field this season putrid. Pitching above the league averages are IMO, something other than putrid.

Willis has been unlucky this season. He has pitched better than his numbers indicate. With average luck his ERA would be roughly 4.00. That's not bad. More is expected of Willis, but that's still above average. If he starts getting some luck he'll be back to being an above average pitcher.

Highlifeman21
05-24-2006, 03:58 AM
We must have different definitions of putrid.

I call what Dave Williams displayed on the field this season putrid. Pitching above the league averages are IMO, something other than putrid.

Willis has been unlucky this season. He has pitched better than his numbers indicate. With average luck his ERA would be roughly 4.00. That's not bad. You expect more from Willis, but that's still above average. If he starts getting some luck he'll be back to being an above average pitcher.

Willis' ROY, good season.

Last year, freakin lights out.

Season inbetween, forget about it, it never happened, no good.

Willis this season, downright horrible. It has NOTHING to do with unlucky, he's seriously been beaten around the yard like a kid getting held up for his lunch money. His ERA is over 5. That's all on him, has nothing to do with luch, not to mention his K:BB is LESS THAN 2:1. Tell ya what, sign me up for some of that. Might as well send EE, Kearns, Freel, Denorfia, Bailey, Wood, whoever else for 1 guy, since clearly he's worth all that and a bag of chips.

Patrick Bateman
05-24-2006, 04:02 AM
Willis this season, downright horrible. It has NOTHING to do with unlucky, he's seriously been beaten around the yard like a kid getting held up for his lunch money. His ERA is over 5. That's all on him, has nothing to do with luch, not to mention his K:BB is LESS THAN 2:1. Tell ya what, sign me up for some of that. Might as well send EE, Kearns, Freel, Denorfia, Bailey, Wood, whoever else for 1 guy, since clearly he's worth all that and a bag of chips.

No, he's been unlucky. Being beat around the yard is partially due to luck because of a BAPIP above the average. That's due to luck, and Willis has no control over it. His K:BB is not very good, but his HR rate is also very low which can help make up for the poor K:BB. He really hasn't been that bad. Obviously he's not at last year's level, but it's not nearly as bad as you think.

GoReds
05-24-2006, 09:04 AM
Willis' ROY, good season.

Last year, freakin lights out.

Season inbetween, forget about it, it never happened, no good.


Let's get his career stats listed here, so we'll no what you refer to as 'putrid' and 'no good'



Year Team W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO
2003 FLA 14 6 3.30 27 27 2 2 0 0 160.2 148 61 59 13 58 142
2004 FLA 10 11 4.02 32 32 2 0 0 0 197.0 210 99 88 20 61 139
2005 FLA 22 10 2.63 34 34 7 5 0 0 236.1 213 79 69 11 55 170

Would it help you to know that the 4.02 ERA (102 ERA+) for that year beats EVERY starter the Reds tossed out there in 2003 and 2004 and everyone except Harang last year?

So, in essence, his WORST year is better than every starting pitcher the Reds have had for the last 3+ years, with the exception of Harang last year.

That's putrid.

Think of it this way. The Reds would strengthen EVERY starting pitching spot in the rotation with addition of Willis. No more talk of Dave Williams or some scrub like him every five days. The Reds could even explore the option of sending Milton to the pen (which wouldn't be a bad idea, IMO).

registerthis
05-24-2006, 09:41 AM
Willis' ROY, good season.

Last year, freakin lights out.

Season inbetween, forget about it, it never happened, no good.

So, before the age of 24, he's had a "good" ROY season (a 3.31 ERA, 142 K and 13 HR in 162 IP is more than good, it's great--particularly for a 21 year old), a "freakin lights out" season, and one merely average one (make no mistake, a 4.02 ERA is quite good.) And yet he sucks.

To say I don't understand that sentiment is a colossal understatement.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 09:43 AM
No, he's been unlucky. Being beat around the yard is partially due to luck because of a BAPIP above the average. That's due to luck, and Willis has no control over it. His K:BB is not very good, but his HR rate is also very low which can help make up for the poor K:BB. He really hasn't been that bad. Obviously he's not at last year's level, but it's not nearly as bad as you think.

...and he's 24, so there's no reason to think that his early-2006 problems are indicative of anything larger than an unlucky slump.

Dan
05-24-2006, 09:54 AM
Dontrelle's 24 years-old. IMO, he'd be worth the gutting.

Steve Avery anyone?

flyer85
05-24-2006, 10:04 AM
Steve Avery anyone?No, he's Pedro Martinez :D

billy117
05-24-2006, 10:16 AM
I think that bailey will be a good big league pitcher maybe even a great pitcher and would love to see him make his debut in a reds uni, and i think that he could probably win the roy........but having said all that i think if we could get willis this year bailey shouldn't be a deal killer. i think something along the lines of bailey, deno and EE would be acceptable, even though deno is a border line super here to some people and i love him too, but he's not going to pitch 200+ innings and win 15-20 games.....well maybe he can?

as far as EE i don't really know why so many people would be reluctant to give him up. who knows if the marlins will even want him they have cabrera, but maybe they want to unload him as well. but EE's on pace for over 40errors this year, now i realize he probably won't reach that number and his defense will probably improve, but how much?

willis' poor start this year i think can be attributed to frustration and the feeling of being sold out. let's look at his attitude at the beginning of the season he posted a sign on his locker that read: "who will win more games: the Heat or Marlins?" i believe that if you put him on a team that is committed to winning his pitching will greatly improve.......it's just a theory, it's probably wrong.

main thing is that bailey could turn out to be a great pitcher and deno could end up ridding the world of evil, but i think this is one time when we should take a shot. but it krivsky doesn't go after willis then i'd understand why and if he does i'd admire him for having the balls to pull the trigger. not that my or anyone else's opinion on here matters anyway.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 10:19 AM
Willis' ROY, good season.

Last year, freakin lights out.

Season inbetween, forget about it, it never happened, no good.

Willis this season, downright horrible. It has NOTHING to do with unlucky, he's seriously been beaten around the yard like a kid getting held up for his lunch money. His ERA is over 5. That's all on him, has nothing to do with luch, not to mention his K:BB is LESS THAN 2:1. Tell ya what, sign me up for some of that. Might as well send EE, Kearns, Freel, Denorfia, Bailey, Wood, whoever else for 1 guy, since clearly he's worth all that and a bag of chips.

Willis had a couple of bad starts this season and has looked great in the others. Last year he had a stretch in July where he looked like Dave Williams and he still put up outstanding numbers overall. Since it is early in the season, a few bad starts are going to make your ERA skyrocket. He has thrown well in the last couple of games...his ERA will be in the 3s by year end. Give it time.

M2
05-24-2006, 12:01 PM
Love that you've discounted anything I have to say about pitchers....

He's pitched 3.5 seasons, 1 of which being out of this world, 1 of which being acceptible, 1 of which being forgettable, and the 1/2 of this year being down right horrid....

His career IS a small sample size.

I'm basing my take on this guy on 3.5 years worth of body or work, 1 of which being highly inflated....

He's 24 with a small sample size, take it as it's worth.

If you're basing your take on on his work to date then he's got a 3.45 ERA in 657.1 IP with a 6.67 K/9, 2.49 K/BB, 1.36 G/F, 0.64 HR/9 and .697 OPS against. His ERA+ is probably about 120 right now (it was 124 entering the season). The Reds haven't had anything like that for ages.

It doesn't matter how much smoke and mirrors you want to throw into the discussion, that's what he's done to date and it's a pretty healthy sample size.

M2
05-24-2006, 12:03 PM
Steve Avery anyone?

Only if he gets a debilitating injury. Otherwise I'd say you're trading for something akin to a modern Vida Blue.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bluevi01.shtml

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 01:18 PM
From Olney's blog today:

Talked to several GMs the last couple of days about Dontrelle Willis' availability, and they say the situation hasn't changed since early April: They have not been told he's on the market. "I don't think they're going to trade him this summer," said one executive. "In the winter, but not this summer." The Arizona Diamondbacks have asked about Willis, just as other teams have asked, and they've been rebuffed, without exchanging any names. However, if Arizona decides it wants Willis, the D-Backs probably would be able to match up with Florida's needs better than any other team -- they're loaded with prospects, including outfielders.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 02:12 PM
However, if Arizona decides it wants Willis, the D-Backs probably would be able to match up with Florida's needs better than any other team -- they're loaded with prospects, including outfielders.

That's it right there. We can speculate all we want abotu what Willis would bring to this team, but it's not going to matter because teh Reds simply can't match up with the D-backs in tradeable commodities.

M2
05-24-2006, 03:34 PM
That's it right there. We can speculate all we want abotu what Willis would bring to this team, but it's not going to matter because teh Reds simply can't match up with the D-backs in tradeable commodities.

I agree, but the D-Backs might not have the scratch to pay him.

Spitball
05-24-2006, 06:53 PM
Bunning, Nenn, Marichal... Ok.... the rest of them, no good.... couple of good seasons here and there, but no HOF.

This, by itself, speaks volumes of your knowledge. Tiant wins 229 games and he is no good!? He had a couple of good seasons!? He was a twenty game winner four times and one season had an ERA of 1.60 in 258 innings. Valenzuela wins 173 and he is no good!? He had a couple of good seasons!? He pitched 31 shutouts in his career. Couple of good season!? Discussion over. I don't have time for this kind of foolishness. I really don't think it is fair nor is it honest to dismiss a posters remarks with such inaccurate comments.

reds44
05-24-2006, 07:19 PM
That's it right there. We can speculate all we want abotu what Willis would bring to this team, but it's not going to matter because teh Reds simply can't match up with the D-backs in tradeable commodities.
Maybe maybe not. Reds can offer EE, I don't think the D'Backs will offer anyone that good with that price.

Matt700wlw
05-24-2006, 07:23 PM
If EE can get the Reds Willis, one, it means the Fish are dumping salary (which they very well could be), and two, the Reds would HAVE to do it, in my opinion.

I would think it would take more than that to get Willis, however -- and the Reds probably don't have the prospects in their system right now.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 08:39 PM
Maybe maybe not. Reds can offer EE, I don't think the D'Backs will offer anyone that good with that price.
If the Reds can why wouldn't Zona? Zona has the prospects that the Reds don't. I'm sure Florida would eat some $ if they can get more talent in return.

reds44
05-24-2006, 08:46 PM
If the Reds can why wouldn't Zona? Zona has the prospects that the Reds don't. I'm sure Florida would eat some $ if they can get more talent in return.
Have you paid attention to the Marlins at all? They won't eat ANY Cash. They want to get rid of as much of it as possible.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 08:51 PM
Have you paid attention to the Marlins at all? They won't eat ANY Cash. They want to get rid of as much of it as possible.
Yes I have. Have you?

MIAMI -- The cost-cutting Florida Marlins finalized their big trade with the Mets on Thursday, sending slugger Carlos Delgado to New York for first baseman Mike Jacobs and two minor leaguers.

Just hours later, the Marlins completed the other big deal they struck this week by shipping ace Josh Beckett, third baseman Mike Lowell and reliever Guillermo Mota to the Boston Red Sox for four prospects.

The Mets will also receive $7 million from the Marlins to help cover the $48 million Delgado is owed over the next three seasons. The minor leaguers going to Florida in that deal are pitcher Yusmeiro Petit and infielder Grant Psomas.

"One of our goals this offseason was to acquire a big bat for the middle of our lineup," Mets general manager Omar Minaya said. "Carlos Delgado certainly fits that description. He'll be a superb fit for our lineup."

The Mets and Marlins reached a preliminary agreement on their deal Wednesday, but it needed to be approved by the commissioner's office because more than $1 million is changing hands.

Matt700wlw
05-24-2006, 08:51 PM
Looks like Florida still saying they aren't trading D-train




CBS Sportsline

The Miami Herald reports one persistent (and un-named) general manager has contacted the Marlins every week to see if Dontrelle Willis is available. Florida continues to reiterate it has no plans to trade the ace. ...

reds44
05-24-2006, 08:53 PM
Yes I have. Have you?

MIAMI -- The cost-cutting Florida Marlins finalized their big trade with the Mets on Thursday, sending slugger Carlos Delgado to New York for first baseman Mike Jacobs and two minor leaguers.

Just hours later, the Marlins completed the other big deal they struck this week by shipping ace Josh Beckett, third baseman Mike Lowell and reliever Guillermo Mota to the Boston Red Sox for four prospects.

The Mets will also receive $7 million from the Marlins to help cover the $48 million Delgado is owed over the next three seasons. The minor leaguers going to Florida in that deal are pitcher Yusmeiro Petit and infielder Grant Psomas.

"One of our goals this offseason was to acquire a big bat for the middle of our lineup," Mets general manager Omar Minaya said. "Carlos Delgado certainly fits that description. He'll be a superb fit for our lineup."

The Mets and Marlins reached a preliminary agreement on their deal Wednesday, but it needed to be approved by the commissioner's office because more than $1 million is changing hands.
Ok.

Look at how much money Delgado makes compared to the D-Train.

reds44
05-24-2006, 08:53 PM
Looks like Florida still saying they aren't trading D-train
Keep calling them Wayne, its only a time before the dangle Willis out there.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 08:58 PM
Ok.

Look at how much money Delgado makes compared to the D-Train.
So why would Zona be scared of Willis' $? Their team payroll is around $60 million. I would guess there is a little room.

And Green's salary comes off the books after 2007, which would give them some breathing room for an extension.

reds44
05-24-2006, 09:10 PM
So why would Zona be scared of Willis' $? Their team payroll is around $60 million. I would guess there is a little room.

And Green's salary comes off the books after 2007, which would give them some breathing room for an extension.
It isn't in fear of his money now, it would be in fear of his contrat in a couple years when he can be a free agent.

Highlifeman21
05-24-2006, 09:12 PM
If you're basing your take on on his work to date then he's got a 3.45 ERA in 657.1 IP with a 6.67 K/9, 2.49 K/BB, 1.36 G/F, 0.64 HR/9 and .697 OPS against. His ERA+ is probably about 120 right now (it was 124 entering the season). The Reds haven't had anything like that for ages.

It doesn't matter how much smoke and mirrors you want to throw into the discussion, that's what he's done to date and it's a pretty healthy sample size.

I'm not throwing smoke and mirrors into this discussion at all. I'm simply looking at his stats and making observation.

I don't think luck has anything to do with his struggles this year, I think it's largely due to the NL figuring him out, and that his K:BB is down from his career mark.

Compared to what we have on our staff, yes, he's better. I'm not disputing that. I'm disputing the fact that I don't think he's worth the perceived price we'd have to pay to obtain him. That's my whole premise.

He's a good pitcher, I'm not saying he's Dave Williams-esque, I'm just saying that for what we'd have to give up to get him, I'd rather stick with the status quo.

reds44
05-24-2006, 09:14 PM
He had a bad month. His last 2 starts have been back to form. Also there have been a couple of starts where he was left in too long.

Highlifeman21
05-24-2006, 09:14 PM
This, by itself, speaks volumes of your knowledge. Tiant wins 229 games and he is no good!? He had a couple of good seasons!? He was a twenty game winner four times and one season had an ERA of 1.60 in 258 innings. Valenzuela wins 173 and he is no good!? He had a couple of good seasons!? He pitched 31 shutouts in his career. Couple of good season!? Discussion over. I don't have time for this kind of foolishness. I really don't think it is fair nor is it honest to dismiss a posters remarks with such inaccurate comments.

Touche.

I guess your own advice does not apply to yourself.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 09:23 PM
It isn't in fear of his money now, it would be in fear of his contrat in a couple years when he can be a free agent.
Not sure I agree, as I posted earlier that Green is gone after 2007 and his $ can go to Willis. Plus they have a ton of youngsters in AAA that will save them $ when they get to the show.

Oh, and another $10 mil leaves the building after Luis Gonzalez is gone after this year. Money will be free flowing in Arizona.;)

I do agree that Willis is better than his stats show. He went through a few rough starts last July and still had a monster year. He's had 2 or 3 really awful showings this year that really skewed his stats. The guy is a great pitcher...anyone who says otherwise should take another look.

BTW, Unit is getting absolutely pounded in Boston.:) :) :thumbup: :thumbup:

cincyinco
05-24-2006, 09:52 PM
The thought of waiting for Homer Bailey to make his Reds debut in 2009, only to grab his elbow on the third pitch of the game, makes me sleepy.

Posts about Homer Bailey debuting in 2009 and his elbow snapping or shoulder tearing makes me sleepy... ;)