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dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 10:14 AM
I know everything looks better when you score 22 runs in two games, but I think I like BP hitting #2.

Here's my logic: he's clearly not a patience-at-the-plate, walks kinda guy. Seems to do better hitting early in the count. Now, with Jr. and Aurilia back and hitting 3-4, Phillips should get pitches to hit in the 2 hole.

Plus, he's a capable bunter, keeps good speed near the top of the lineup and seems to handle the bat decently.

Thoughts?

redsfan30
05-24-2006, 10:31 AM
It might not be a horrible fit. As you mentioned, he's perfectly capable of moving a runner over if need be. He also sees pleanty of nice pitches with Griffey hitting behind him.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 10:32 AM
I'd say he looks good at #2 when he's "on", which he clearly is right now. But he won't look nearly as good there when he tanks for a couple of weeks and his OBP plummets. He's a very streaky hitter--at least, he has been thus far.

But it's clearly working now, so I say stay with it as long as you can. His speed is a definite plus, 10 for 10 in the SB category now.

PickOff
05-24-2006, 11:02 AM
I'd rather see EE get the extra at bat and see more pitches and reach base more often. That said, Phillips is a pretty good second choice.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 11:09 AM
I'm thoroughly impressed with the way he hit line drives to opposite field the past two games. If he can keep that up, he'd be a decent 2-hitter.

However, to be a very good 2-hitter, he needs to take more pitches and give the leadoff hitter a better chance to steal. There's also that "walk allergy" that he needs to fix. I'd rather have Freel leading off and Lopez hitting second -- that's the Reds' best lineup. And Edwin is still a better option than Phillips.

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 11:10 AM
Personally, Freel is not in the Reds best lineup.

savafan
05-24-2006, 11:13 AM
Personally, Freel is not in the Reds best lineup.

I'm tending to agree.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 11:45 AM
I'm tending to agree.

I disagree stongly. Even with his .240 BA, Freel is still on base more often than Phillips. The guy works the count like crazy, draws a ton of walks, and is a high-percentage base stealer. What more do you want from a leadoff hitter? With Freel and Lopez hitting 1-2, the table is almost always set for Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, and Encarnacion.

Phillips isn't on base enough to warrant a permanent spot in the 2-hole.

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 11:51 AM
Freel's OBP in May: .250, Walks in May: 3

I'd like to know how many times in May he swung at 1st pitches as well.

savafan
05-24-2006, 12:00 PM
Freel's solid coming off the bench and maybe starting three times a week, but I don't believe he can hold up playing every day. There's a reason he's been a career utility guy.

smith288
05-24-2006, 12:02 PM
Im more and more convinced Freel is nothing more than fools gold. Very nice from a distance but the more you look, the more flawed he is.

Good bench guy though.

Reds1
05-24-2006, 12:04 PM
I don't really know for sure. I like Phillip up there while he's hot, but I also think he's done a good job in the 7-8 spot knocking in everyone in front of him before we get to the pitchers spot. The big thing is I'm sold on him starting every day. He can pick it and what he can do at the plate is just a super bonus.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 12:10 PM
Freel's OBP in May: .250, Walks in May: 3

I'd like to know how many times in May he swung at 1st pitches as well.

So you're going to ignore the previous three years based on three bad weeks in May?

OK. Let me cherry-pick some stats, too.

Freel's OBP in April: .434 Walks in April: 20.

Phillips' OBP in May: .308 Walks in May 3.

harangatang
05-24-2006, 12:13 PM
Im more and more convinced Freel is nothing more than fools gold. Very nice from a distance but the more you look, the more flawed he is.

Good bench guy though.Good analogy. I was on the Freel bandwagon for a long time and then he showed that the Reds were using him in the correct role. Maybe if something positive come from Junior's latest injury, it's the fact that the entire world who pays attention knows Freel can't be succesful offensively in an every day role.

pedro
05-24-2006, 12:13 PM
I just don't like Freel as an everyday player. I think he wears out when he plays every day.

As for Phillips in the #2 hole? I'm not sure that's a very good idea. I like him down at the bottom of the order myself.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 12:18 PM
Don't want to start Freel bashing...but personally I like a leadoff hitter with some RBI capability. Reasoning? The lineup turns around.

A pitcher's bunt will normally put some runners in scoring position, frequently with 2 outs. An IF hit won't score them from 2nd.
Pitchers and PH will also frequently leave players on the bases, very often with 2 outs.
An effective leadoff hitter can keep that inning going.

Freel has a lifetime OPS of .679 with RISP. (.601 this year). Felipe Lopez is approximately .800.

Freel's OBP makes him a fine leadoff hitter...when he's leading off. After the first inning...not so effective.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 12:28 PM
Freel's OBP makes him a fine leadoff hitter...when he's leading off. After the first inning...not so effective.

His OBP makes him a tough out regardless of the situation. That makes him an asset on offense.

The pitcher's spot really doesn't get on base all that often. Having a slugging leadoff hitter is more important in the AL, but in the NL, I'll take the guy who can get on base ahead of the big hitters.

pedro
05-24-2006, 12:33 PM
His OBP makes him a tough out regardless of the situation. That makes him an asset on offense.


I'm just not sure he can maintain that high level of performance playing every day.

Falls City Beer
05-24-2006, 12:38 PM
I'll repeat for the 90th time: Freel put up his best numbers in the season in which he played every day.

He's not getting the playing time he should and deserves to be traded to a team that can use him. And I think he'd have a number of suitors: both stats guys like Beane and whoever that putz is in LA(NL) who likes to talk about scrappiness and swinging the bat.

Outside of Dunn, there are few players who have served this team more admirably than Freel the last several years on offense. Maybe it's time to cut ties with Freel, but I wouldn't confuse Freel's output with what Phillips' output will look like if he gets a full season of ABs because Phillips won't touch Freel's OBP of the last two seasons.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 12:38 PM
I'm just not sure he can maintain that high level of performance playing every day.

True, he hasn't proven he can sustain production over 600 ABs. But I'm willing to give him that chance.

BTW - Phillips hasn't proven he can sustain production over 200 ABs.

pedro
05-24-2006, 12:40 PM
I'll repeat for the 90th time: Freel put up his best numbers in the season in which he played every day.

He's not getting the playing time he should and deserves to be traded to a team that can use him. And I think he'd have a number of suitors: both stats guys like Beane and whoever that putz is in LA(NL) who likes to talk about scrappiness and swinging the bat.

Outside of Dunn, there are few players who have served this team more admirably than Freel the last several years on offense. Maybe it's time to cut ties with Freel, but I wouldn't confuse Freel's output with what Phillips' output will look like if he gets a full season of ABs because Phillips won't touch Freel's OBP of the last two seasons.


You like to talk about trends and black holes well I just watched Freel play every day for a month while Griffey was out and frankly he didn't look so good. Maybe it was just a slump, maybe not, but to me he sure looked gassed.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 12:41 PM
You like to talk about trends and black holes well I just watched Freel play every day for a month while Griffey was out and frankly he didn't look so good. Maybe it was just a slump, maybe not, but to me he sure looked gassed.

That month couldn't have been April, 2006.

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 12:42 PM
I'll repeat for the 90th time: Freel put up his best numbers in the season in which he played every day.

He's not getting the playing time he should and deserves to be traded to a team that can use him. And I think he'd have a number of suitors: both stats guys like Beane and whoever that putz is in LA(NL) who likes to talk about scrappiness and swinging the bat.

Outside of Dunn, there are few players who have served this team more admirably than Freel the last several years on offense. Maybe it's time to cut ties with Freel, but I wouldn't confuse Freel's output with what Phillips' output will look like if he gets a full season of ABs because Phillips won't touch Freel's OBP of the last two seasons.

Freel's 2004=Fool's Gold (Rick Helling won 20 games one year)

Billy Beane would never take him because he gets thrown out on the bases too often.

Phillips OBP is touching Freel's .250 for May.

Falls City Beer
05-24-2006, 12:42 PM
You like to talk about trends and black holes well I just watched Freel play every day for a month while Griffey was out and frankly he didn't look so good. Maybe it was just a slump, maybe not, but to me he sure looked gassed.

.368 OBP in 2006

.375 OBP in 505 AB in 2004.

If that's gassed, gas him some more.

pedro
05-24-2006, 12:47 PM
Look at his game log and draw your own conclusions. I like Freel, I really do, but when he plays everyday I think he gets tired.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=4629

OTOH, in 2004, the only year Freel did play pretty much everyday, he did have a very nice september.

But last year, he was not good in August & September.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 01:06 PM
But last year, he was not good in August & September.

If we count ST...that would make 4 out of 5 sub par months for Freel.
He's 30...not on an upside trend. You have to consider the possibilty that his peak WAS 2004.

I don't think it's him being tired or not, he was minor league filler, we got some mileage out of him and that's it.

Let's not forget the guy has some personal issues also.

I'm not sure I like Phillips in the two hole (actually with Dunn it went well also)...but I prefer Felipe leading off than Ryan.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 01:14 PM
I just can't believe how quickly you're willing to close the book on Freel. That seems very bizarre.

And I guarantee you wouldn't have said it three weeks ago.

Falls City Beer
05-24-2006, 01:17 PM
I just can't believe how quickly you're willing to close the book on Freel. That seems very bizarre.

And I guarantee you wouldn't have said it three weeks ago.

Me neither.

I suspect the quickness of the aboutface has more to do with his personal issues and baserunning blunders than his statistics. That's the only way I can figure such a violent abandoning.

pedro
05-24-2006, 01:18 PM
Me neither.

I suspect the quickness of the aboutface has more to do with his personal issues and baserunning blunders than his statistics. That's the only way I can figure such a violent abandoning.

I guarantee you that my reticence has nothing to do with his drinking.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 01:19 PM
I just can't believe how quickly you're willing to close the book on Freel. That seems very bizarre.

And I guarantee you wouldn't have said it three weeks ago.

Seems that some players are permitted to go through slumps and work their way out of them. Others have a much shorter leash and aren't given the benefit of the doubt when their production falls off.

Freel falls into the latter category, unfortunately. I was really hoping that Griffey would shift over to left, Dunn would go to first, and Freel would stay in CF when Junior returned, but it hasn't worked out that way. I maintain that that lineup would provide the Reds with their greatest likelihood of success.

Oh, and for the record, keeping Aurilia's bat in the lineup should NEVER become a factor in these discussions. Aurilia's been OK, but no way does his production merit consideration when discussing position switches and whatnot.

pedro
05-24-2006, 01:22 PM
With everything I've said, if Freel is in CF I feel differently about him playing everyday.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 01:31 PM
I just can't believe how quickly you're willing to close the book on Freel. That seems very bizarre.

And I guarantee you wouldn't have said it three weeks ago.

Well, like Al Smith said...let's look at the record.

I like Freel. But I also like Jimenez at one point (because of the same things). On base skills are great...but once they come at you and figure out you can't hit...you're doomed. Freel can't hit.

Check his minor league record. Is there anything there that supports him even being in the big leagues? Let's face it. We were all won over by his hustle and electricity on the bases. The OBP and plate patience are great.
The OPS is not. And even his baserunning % isn't all that.

You want to trade him. I'm for it.
You want to keep him around to hit those lefties we always have trouble with? Yep.

Don't play him everyday. He is still a good backup. He doesn't have the game to be a starter.

my 2 cents.

savafan
05-24-2006, 01:39 PM
Ryan Freel

Similar Batters through Age 29
Compare Stats

1. Kevin Sefcik (959)
2. Kevin Jordan (953)
3. Billy Taylor (952)
4. Jack Gleason (948)
5. Clarence Huber (948)
6. Al Spangler (947)
7. Pinky May (946)
8. Earl Smith (944)
9. F.P. Santangelo (944)
10. Al Wickland (944)


Who?

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 01:43 PM
Jackie Gleason... he was funny.

HotCorner
05-24-2006, 01:59 PM
My ideal lineup would be ...

1. Freel
2. Phillips
3. Lopez
4. Griffey
5. Kearns
6. Dunn
7. Encarnacion
8. Catcher du jour
9. Pitcher du jour

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 02:03 PM
If Aurillia could catch... maybe.

TOBTTReds
05-24-2006, 02:03 PM
I'll repeat for the 90th time: Freel put up his best numbers in the season in which he played every day.

He's not getting the playing time he should and deserves to be traded to a team that can use him. And I think he'd have a number of suitors: both stats guys like Beane and whoever that putz is in LA(NL) who likes to talk about scrappiness and swinging the bat.

Outside of Dunn, there are few players who have served this team more admirably than Freel the last several years on offense. Maybe it's time to cut ties with Freel, but I wouldn't confuse Freel's output with what Phillips' output will look like if he gets a full season of ABs because Phillips won't touch Freel's OBP of the last two seasons.

He can't play everyday when he is hurt!!!! This is driving me crazy. He has a pulled groin so he hasn't played a lot the last two weeks. What is so wrong with that? Not only that, he completely hit a wall about 4 weeks into the season and just flat out stopped hitting and getting on base bc he was dead. He needs days off guys. Please understand this. And he is nursing an injury!

He played almost a full month of all-out ball in april and is now slugging .226 in may. He took 2 days off last week then hit well when he came back. I think he needs that rest.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 02:04 PM
If Aurillia could catch... maybe.

What this hang-up with Aurillia?

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 02:11 PM
What this hang-up with Aurillia?

If my choice is between playing Aurilia and Freel, I'm playing Aurillia.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 03:02 PM
If my choice is between playing Aurilia and Freel, I'm playing Aurillia.

I'm glad you're not running the Reds, then.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 03:05 PM
Well, like Al Smith said...let's look at the record.

I like Freel. But I also like Jimenez at one point (because of the same things). On base skills are great...but once they come at you and figure out you can't hit...you're doomed. Freel can't hit.

Check his minor league record. Is there anything there that supports him even being in the big leagues? Let's face it. We were all won over by his hustle and electricity on the bases. The OBP and plate patience are great.
The OPS is not. And even his baserunning % isn't all that.

You want to trade him. I'm for it.
You want to keep him around to hit those lefties we always have trouble with? Yep.

Don't play him everyday. He is still a good backup. He doesn't have the game to be a starter.

my 2 cents.

Why check his minor league record? He hasn't played in the minors in 4 years.

Why not look at the major league stats he's compiled since then? His record pretty much speaks for itself.

Freel is a .270 hitter with no power, great speed, and mad OB skills. Juan Pierre with a much better OBP.

You'd be crazy not to want that at the top of the lineup.

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 03:08 PM
I'm glad you're not running the Reds, then.
You've got me there. But since Aurillia's come back from the DL, the people who are running the Reds seem to be agreeing with me.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 03:32 PM
Why check his minor league record? He hasn't played in the minors in 4 years.

Why not look at the major league stats he's compiled since then? His record pretty much speaks for itself.

Freel is a .270 hitter with no power, great speed, and mad OB skills. Juan Pierre with a much better OBP.

You'd be crazy not to want that at the top of the lineup.

Call me crazy then...just think we can do better.

The stats you are citing are Freel 2004/05, I see it going downhill from there.

I prefer a guy with a .350 OBP and a .800 OPS over guy with a .370 OBP adn a .650 OPS. Anywhere in the lineup.

KronoRed
05-24-2006, 03:50 PM
As long as he's hot leave him there, he cools off like he did after his first hot streak then move him down..fast.

KronoRed
05-24-2006, 03:51 PM
You've got me there. But since Aurillia's come back from the DL, the people who are running the Reds seem to be agreeing with me.
That doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Rich is a nice backup, not a cleanup hitter and should never start over a healthy Freel.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 04:09 PM
The stats you are citing are Freel 2004/05, I see it going downhill from there.

Based on 1 1/2 months of 2006? Such fickle fans we are.

CORRECTION: half a month. In April, Freel was on fire.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 04:10 PM
That doesn't mean it's a good idea.

If I was accumulating support for an idea that i had, about the last thing I would put out there is that the Reds are currently doing it. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, IMO.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 04:11 PM
That doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Rich is a nice backup, not a cleanup hitter and should never start over a healthy Freel.

Aurilia/Hatteberg make a cheap two headed first baseman.
Aurilia is not a cleanup hitter.
I don't think Freel and Aurilia are really competing for PT anymore.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 04:13 PM
Based on 1 1/2 months of 2006? Such fickle fans we are.

Plus ST...Plus August September 2005.

For some players decline comes quickly, you have to consider that possibility.
Look at Jimenez..Danny Graves, etc.

registerthis
05-24-2006, 04:30 PM
Plus ST...Plus August September 2005.

For some players decline comes quickly, you have to consider that possibility.
Look at Jimenez..Danny Graves, etc.

Yes, but someone like Graves was sucking LONG before the axe finally fell.

I don't see the same trends with Freel. In August '05 he got a grand total of 7 starts--hardly a reasonable sample size. In September '05, he posted a very respectable .355 OBP, and scored 18 runs--the second most for any month for him in 2005. So it doesn't seem that he was wearing out.

We all know what he did in April of this year. So, we have one bad month (May 06), and one month where his stats were down, but he barely played (Aug. 05). Beyond that he's produced just fine.

So, again, your assessment that he's "losing it" appears to be based on tenuous evidence, at best.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 04:48 PM
Based on 1 1/2 months of 2006? Such fickle fans we are.

CORRECTION: half a month. In April, Freel was on fire.


Be fair: it's three weeks. ;)

oneupper
05-24-2006, 04:58 PM
OK...Ryan Freel since June 1, 2005 (basically a full year) and I'm not counting ST (where he was awful).

BA: .243
OBP: .344
SLG .307
OPS: .651

That's 362 AB...

Sample large enough?

Those numbers are NOT good.


Someone mentioned Juan Pierre. I don't like Juan Pierre. But he's a lifetime .301 BA/ .350 OBP guy who fields better than Freel.
I'll take Pierre over Freel.

dabvu2498
05-24-2006, 08:18 PM
Freel plays hard, he steals bases, he does all those cool things that make us like him. He had a good 2004, a decent (injury-plagued 2005), a great April. Some guys... that's all they got.

Johnny Footstool
05-24-2006, 10:12 PM
OK...Ryan Freel since June 1, 2005 (basically a full year) and I'm not counting ST (where he was awful).

BA: .243
OBP: .344
SLG .307
OPS: .651

That's 362 AB...

Sample large enough?

Those numbers are NOT good.


Someone mentioned Juan Pierre. I don't like Juan Pierre. But he's a lifetime .301 BA/ .350 OBP guy who fields better than Freel.
I'll take Pierre over Freel.

You're really digging to find reasons not to like Freel.

362 ABs is half a season, and Freel was recovering from leg injuries pretty much the whole time. Plus you ignore the .809 OPS (driven by a .406 OBP) he put up in the first half of 2005.

BTW - You brought up Juan Pierre's lifetime numbers and compared them to a half-season from Freel. FYI, Pierre posted a .326 OPB and a .680 OPS in 656 ABs in 2005. He's been even worse for the Cubs.


Freel plays hard, he steals bases, he does all those cool things that make us like him. He had a good 2004, a decent (injury-plagued 2005), a great April. Some guys... that's all they got.

I don't give two craps about how hard he plays or how scrappy he is. He's got outstanding OB skills, and he works the pitcher like crazy. To me, those are the "cool" things he does.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 10:33 PM
362 ABs is half a season, and Freel was recovering from leg injuries pretty much the whole time. Plus you ignore the .809 OPS (driven by a .406 OBP) he put up in the first half of 2005.



I didn't ignore anything. Those stats are from June on... June, July August September, October 05 plus April and May 06. We could do the last 50, 100 or 200 AB, if I had a database.

The issue was whether Freel is going downhill or not. For that issue, his more recent stats become more important than his earlier ones. His recents stats are poor...period.

For Freel to be productive for the REDS he has to do better. That's where we can agree to disagree, IMO. In my opinion, he's seen his best and this is REAL Freel...in yours he can revert to 2004 form and hit .270/.370 and OPS .750.

It's probably moot anyway because I believe Narron and Krivsky think more like me and he won't get the playing time to prove either of us wrong.

edabbs44
05-24-2006, 10:35 PM
You can throw out OPS when you talk about Freel. The one stat that matters with him is OBP. His legs are 85% of his value (the other 15 going to versatility) and he isn't an EBH machine. As long as he gets on first base, nothing else matters.

oneupper
05-24-2006, 10:58 PM
OPS always matters. Sure OBP is more important if you are leading off an inning, but after the first inning, the lead off batter may not do that again.
And what's better? A leadoff single or a leadoff double or HR?

I've been here at RZ long enough to have the OPS mantra battered into my head.

The issue is if Freel can be an .370 or more OBP guy from HERE on. I don't think so. So I don't want him as my regular leadoff guy.

It doesn't mean I don't like him in some other role.

griffeyfreak4
05-24-2006, 11:27 PM
Ozzie Guillen once said that he loved Tadihito Iguchi in the 2 spot because he knew his responsibility: To be patient, take pitches, allow speedsters to run, and then move them over via bunt or slap hit to right side. (Ozzie also said if he batted Guch in the 4 hole he would hit 600 HR but that's another story ;))

I don't see BP being able to do all of these things, therefore, I don't like him in the 2 hole all the time. When he's hot, I don't have a problem with his hack-first, think-later mentality, or batting him second. But so far he has proved to be a streaky hitter, so we'll see.

rdiersin
05-25-2006, 09:21 AM
You're really digging to find reasons not to like Freel.

362 ABs is half a season, and Freel was recovering from leg injuries pretty much the whole time. Plus you ignore the .809 OPS (driven by a .406 OBP) he put up in the first half of 2005.

BTW - You brought up Juan Pierre's lifetime numbers and compared them to a half-season from Freel. FYI, Pierre posted a .326 OPB and a .680 OPS in 656 ABs in 2005. He's been even worse for the Cubs.



Allright, then what about his PECOTA projection, .259/.344/.351/.695. That seems pretty on target from the numbers oneupper posted. Freel is a 30 year old player that relies on his speed. He's going to start declining, its just a matter of when.

cincinnati chili
05-25-2006, 09:31 AM
Someone mentioned Juan Pierre. I don't like Juan Pierre. But he's a lifetime .301 BA/ .350 OBP guy who fields better than Freel.
I'll take Pierre over Freel.

I agree. I think Juan is overrated too, but he's more valuable than Freel, particularly if you consider all the runs he takes away on defense. Haven't seen a lot of Freel's defense in CF this year, but have in previous years. It's not good.

Secondly, I don't think that Freel's baserunning blunders have been minor. He's singlehanded blown or nearly blown 2-3 games this year with mistakes that would cause a high school player to get benched (picked off on second base, trying to reach an extra base when down by 2 runs, etc).

I also am not ready to jump on the Brandon Phillips bandwagon, but I'm getting to the point where I don't trust Freel either.

Johnny Footstool
05-25-2006, 09:34 AM
OPS always matters. Sure OBP is more important if you are leading off an inning, but after the first inning, the lead off batter may not do that again.
And what's better? A leadoff single or a leadoff double or HR?

Then why not bat Junior leadoff?

The answer is because you want OBP guys batting ahead of SLG guys. I'd rather have Lopez batting second behind Freel's high OBP than batting leadoff behind the pitcher's .220 OBP.


The issue is if Freel can be an .370 or more OBP guy from HERE on. I don't think so. So I don't want him as my regular leadoff guy.


That is a legitimate concern.

Personally, I don't think he's done. He was on fire in April, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

registerthis
05-25-2006, 09:44 AM
I didn't ignore anything. Those stats are from June on...

Well, according to Johnny you ignored the first half of the '05 season--you included June but not April or may. So maybe we won't use the term "ignore". How about "didn't use?"


The issue was whether Freel is going downhill or not. For that issue, his more recent stats become more important than his earlier ones. His recents stats are poor...period.

Really? In September 2005 he posted an OBP of .355, stole 7 bases and scored 18 runs. That's not "poor". In April '06, he had an OBP of .434, scored 16 runs and stole 8 bases. That's not "poor" either. In July '05, he had an OBP of .409, scored 15 runs and stole 8 bases. That's not "poor" either. So, he had a good second half of '05 (escept August, when he was injured and barely played), and an excellent April 2006. It appears that his recent stats have, in fact, NOT been poor...period.


For Freel to be productive for the REDS he has to do better. That's where we can agree to disagree, IMO. In my opinion, he's seen his best and this is REAL Freel...in yours he can revert to 2004 form and hit .270/.370 and OPS .750.

A .368 OBP, 11 SB and 20 R is the real Freel? Playing quality, above-average defense in CF is the real Freel? Then I'm fine with that. If you have a leadoff hitter who can get on base 37% of the time, can steal 35 bases, and plays good defense in a difficult position, you have yourself a quality leadoff hitter.

dabvu2498
05-25-2006, 09:51 AM
It appears that his recent stats have, in fact, NOT been poor...period.

.250 OBP in May is poor. 3 walks in May... poor.

Johnny Footstool
05-25-2006, 09:57 AM
.250 OBP in May is poor. 3 walks in May... poor.

Are you talking about Phillips or Freel? Because they've both been pretty poor in May.

dabvu2498
05-25-2006, 09:59 AM
Are you talking about Phillips or Freel? Because they've both been pretty poor in May.

Phillips is .317 OBP with 4 walks in May.

registerthis
05-25-2006, 10:00 AM
.250 OBP in May is poor. 3 walks in May... poor.

So we're limiting "recent" to only the past 3 weeks? OK.

I guess we should get rid of Adam Dunn, because he's clearly terrible and definitely on the downward slope of his career.

oneupper
05-25-2006, 10:02 AM
Well, according to Johnny you ignored the first half of the '05 season--you included June but not April or may. So maybe we won't use the term "ignore". How about "didn't use?"


Calendar year...June 1, 2005 thru May 24, 2006 (as close as I could get). I'm not omitting anything there. If you want, we can do a "rolling" number from here on as in "last 12 months".

I excluded ST, which may not mean much to many...but IMO confirms a trend.

I'll defer to rsdlin with his Pecota projections which BTW are looking high.

Otherwise, I won't continue to bash this issue to death.

And for the other issue Johnny brought up OPS vs. OBP and batting Jr leadoff.

Well, if I had 8 guys with .376 OBP and .937 OPS I would play them everyday.
One of them would have to bat leadoff.

The guy with the .380 OPB .750 OPS would sit. So would the guy with the ..420 OPB .750 OPS and the guy with the .450 OPB .750 OPS.

Sure, there's a point where there's a tradeoff. But I won't trade 100 OPS points for 20 OBP points anywhere in the lineup.

dabvu2498
05-25-2006, 10:05 AM
Did I "say get rid of"?

I would just argue that Freel's outstanding stats of the past are more of an abberration than the norm. I think he can have a very positive role with this team. I just don't think it's hitting leadoff and playing CF (or 2b or 3b) everyday.

registerthis
05-25-2006, 10:28 AM
Did I "say get rid of"?

I would just argue that Freel's outstanding stats of the past are more of an abberration than the norm. I think he can have a very positive role with this team. I just don't think it's hitting leadoff and playing CF (or 2b or 3b) everyday.

Show me tangible evidence of that, beyond your mere suppositions. Everything I have seen indicates that when Freel gets regular playing time and is not injured, he produces quite well. He had a very good 2004. His 2005 was good, too, when he was healthy. His 2006 started off exceptionally well, and he has struggled in May.

There is a persistent myth about Freel that he somehow "breaks down" or ceases to be effective the more he plays, but the numbers simply don't support that. If you find something which does, please do post it, and I will reconsider my position.

dabvu2498
05-25-2006, 10:37 AM
Show me tangible evidence of that, beyond your mere suppositions. Everything I have seen indicates that when Freel gets regular playing time and is not injured, he produces quite well. He had a very good 2004. His 2005 was good, too, when he was healthy. His 2006 started off exceptionally well, and he has struggled in May.

There is a persistent myth about Freel that he somehow "breaks down" or ceases to be effective the more he plays, but the numbers simply don't support that. If you find something which does, please do post it, and I will reconsider my position.

My point is, I'd rather have Phillips (while he's still relatively hot), Aurilia, EE, or any of the 3 outfielders in on a day-to-day, everyday basis than Freel. That's it.

Johnny Footstool
05-25-2006, 11:07 AM
And for the other issue Johnny brought up OPS vs. OBP and batting Jr leadoff.

Well, if I had 8 guys with .376 OBP and .937 OPS I would play them everyday.
One of them would have to bat leadoff.

The guy with the .380 OPB .750 OPS would sit. So would the guy with the ..420 OPB .750 OPS and the guy with the .450 OPB .750 OPS.

Sure, there's a point where there's a tradeoff. But I won't trade 100 OPS points for 20 OBP points anywhere in the lineup.

In a hypothetical situation, that works. In reality, when you *have* to play a guy with mad OB skills and little power, you put him at the top of the lineup in front of players with good OB skills and good power. Power in the leadoff spot is far less important than power in the 2-3-4-5 spots.

I wish Freel was Rickey Henderson, but he's not. Still, when he plays, he adds the most to the lineup as the leadoff hitter.

thatcoolguy_22
05-25-2006, 11:36 AM
What do you guys think of this lineup...

Freel
Lopez
Griffey
Kearns
Dunn
Phillips
Encarnacion
Valentin
xx

We need Freel in the top of this order. Baseball is full of slumps and streaks. Freel has proven himself throughout his career... He is only in the middle of a slump. Freely and Lopez both have the baserunning ability and speed needed at the top to keep men in scoring posistion for our sluggers. Also with phillips a little lower in the lineup he can act as a late game rally starter with protection from Encarnacion and Valentin. Also Dunn's .226 BA is a wee bit depressing... Dunn with or without protection does not receive many pitches to hit...

registerthis
05-25-2006, 12:04 PM
What do you guys think of this lineup...

Freel
Lopez
Griffey
Kearns
Dunn
Phillips
Encarnacion
Valentin
xx


I wouldn't have any problems with that, but it's not going ot happen so long as Juniro as adamant about staying in CF.

BTW, when did the Reds sign XX? I think he has great potential.

KronoRed
05-25-2006, 04:16 PM
XX is talented but doesn't hit with RISP

oneupper
05-25-2006, 04:24 PM
XX is talented but doesn't hit with RISP

XX is really Jim Coombs.

registerthis
05-25-2006, 04:29 PM
I wouldn't have any problems with that, but it's not going ot happen so long as Juniro as adamant about staying in CF.

BTW, for those wondering, the Reds pulled off a secret trade with the Hiroshima Carp. They sent them Ken Griffey Jr., and the Carp sent the Reds their best player, a homerun-hitting phenom named "Juniro."

gonelong
05-25-2006, 04:32 PM
XX is really Jim Coombs.

No way, Coombs hits in all situations. I once saw a 3B wet himself when Coombs came to the plate, faked a bunt to draw him in, and then rifled a swinging-bunt down the 3B line.

That run scored from 3B.

GL

RAS
05-25-2006, 04:34 PM
Thus far, I haven't seen any sign that Jr in front of Dunn provides him with the protection everyone was saying he was lacking and was the reason for his slumping. No matter who bats in front or behind him, Dunn either walks or strikeouts 60% of the time. Move him to 7th or even 8th and admit he can't drive in runs. I know he had 100 last year. I think if you install just about any starter in the 3-4-5 slot on this offense, 100 rbis' is very possible and even likely

oneupper
05-25-2006, 04:39 PM
No way, Coombs hits in all situations. I once saw a 3B wet himself when Coombs came to the plate, faked a bunt to draw him in, and then rifled a swinging-bunt down the 3B line.

That run scored from 3B.

GL

That's nothing. I saw him hit a 5-run homer...from the on-deck circle.

Johnny Footstool
05-25-2006, 04:58 PM
That's nothing. I saw him hit a 5-run homer...from the on-deck circle.

I heard he hit a 3-run job in Los Angeles while he and his teammates were on a plane to New York.

dabvu2498
05-25-2006, 07:54 PM
His bases-empty grand slam is my favorite. (And I don't even know who we're talking about.)

GAC
05-25-2006, 08:42 PM
He has a career .262 OB%. Not saying that can't/won't get better with some maturity and solid coaching (Chambliss).

He will see better pitches in the #2 spot, and has terrific bat speed.... so we'll see.

GAC
05-25-2006, 08:44 PM
What do you guys think of this lineup...

Freel
Lopez
Griffey
Kearns
Dunn
Phillips
Encarnacion
Valentin
xx

We need Freel in the top of this order. Baseball is full of slumps and streaks. Freel has proven himself throughout his career

He has?

Not a knock on Ryan, because I like him. But he hasn't proven over his brief ML career that he is an everyday player. And he's 30 yrs old. ;)

KronoRed
05-25-2006, 09:16 PM
XX is really Jim Coombs.
I thought he was Jack Bauer?

reds44
05-25-2006, 09:19 PM
Freel isn't an everyday player.

Do you notice how little PT he has been getting lately? There are reasons for that.

KronoRed
05-25-2006, 09:20 PM
Do you notice how little PT he has been getting lately? There are reasons for that.
We need to get at bats for Q and Ross? ;)

registerthis
05-26-2006, 09:46 AM
Do you notice how little PT he has been getting lately? There are reasons for that.

Ineptitude by Reds management?

Redhook
05-26-2006, 10:25 AM
I say we ride Phillips out in the 2 spot as long as he stays hot. The great thing about the Reds lineup is there are alot of options when someone is hot or cold. The only thing certain about the lineup is it's going to be changing all the time.

GAC
05-26-2006, 10:37 AM
We need to get at bats for Q and Ross? ;)

He regressed. ;)

Plus it was reported he tweeked his groin somehow.

jimbo
05-26-2006, 01:31 PM
He regressed. ;)

Plus it was reported he tweeked his groin somehow.

Didn't he tweek his groin by running the bases? Maybe they should move him to first. :laugh: