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Kc61
05-25-2006, 10:29 AM
Over the last week, in Detroit and last night, the Reds have failed to score several times with a man on third (or even bases loaded) and less than two out. I am still irritated at the Kearns strike out with the bags full in the third last night, when Davis was walking guys and AK swung at a pitch almost in the dirt.

Is there a team stat for hitting with men in scoring position -- in particular, hitting with a man on third -- and less than two outs? I don't just mean hitting with RISP, but specifically, man on third, less than two outs.

My guess is that the Reds would have a low BA (don't know about OPS) in that situation, but I assume most fans think their team should do better in those spots.

What statistical guidance is there?

westofyou
05-25-2006, 10:32 AM
Over the last week, in Detroit and last night, the Reds have failed to score several times with a man on third (or even bases loaded) and less than two out. I am still irritated at the Kearns strike out with the bags full in the third last night, when Davis was walking guys and AK swung at a pitch almost in the dirt.

Is there a team stat for hitting with men in scoring position -- in particular, hitting with a man on third -- and less than two outs? I don't just mean hitting with RISP, but specifically, man on third, less than two outs.

My guess is that the Reds would have a low BA (don't know about OPS) in that situation, but I assume most fans think their team should do better in those spots.

What statistical guidance is there?

All that stuff is available, but the folks like ESPN who get it don't parse that part out for the masses.

There is RISP with 2 outs and just RISP

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=type1&sort=runs&split=185&season=2006

RedsManRick
05-25-2006, 10:58 AM
It looks like your observation is borne out by the numbers Kc. As a team, they have hit .185/.312/.323.

Interestingly, they are decent with runners in scoring position generally speaking: .248/.357/.453.

In both cases the batting average is troubling, but the walks are there. It's pretty incredible that we've scored as well as we have when we are an average team with runners on base. I suppose it goes to show the value of OBP. We're 6th in AB with runners on base, suggesting that when looking at team stats, you need to focus as much on opportunity as conversion rate.

Kc61
05-25-2006, 11:06 AM
It looks like your observation is borne out by the numbers Kc. As a team, they have hit .185/.312/.323.

Interestingly, they are decent with runners in scoring position generally speaking: .248/.357/.453.

In both cases the batting average is troubling, but the walks are there. It's pretty incredible that we've scored as well as we have when we are an average team with runners on base. I suppose it goes to show the value of OBP. We're 6th in AB with runners on base, suggesting that when looking at team stats, you need to focus as much on opportunity as conversion rate.

Thank you. But I don't think the .248 BA with RISP is too good. I think (if I am reading ESPN correctly) that BA with RISP is 12th in the NL.

But the numbers you provide with man on third and less than two out are pretty astonishing.

I think BA is a fairly important statistic in this instance, because it measures the frequency of hits in the key spots. OPS is also interesting, but my focus now is on the frequency of hits.

Another interesting stat would be the percentage of times that the Reds actually score with man on third and less than two outs. (Would include sac flies, scoring grounders, etc.)

Thanks, again.

BRM
05-25-2006, 11:42 AM
The Reds are 3rd in the NL in runs scored in RISP situations while sporting the 12th best BA w/RISP. How could this be? Because they have the 2nd best SLG% w/RISP. SLG produces RBI.

westofyou
05-25-2006, 11:46 AM
SLG produces RBI.

And BA produces bar room talk.

Kc61
05-25-2006, 11:58 AM
And BA produces bar room talk.

BA has relevance in this situation because it tells you the frequency of hits with men on base. I think that is important. The Reds seem to fail a lot with men on base, and this is a deficiency.

The higher number of runs scored probably reflects a lot of extra base hits and even (perhaps) some scoring outs. This is obviously good.

westofyou
05-25-2006, 12:11 PM
BA has relevance in this situation because it tells you the frequency of hits with men on base.True, but the sample rate for the 2 outs and RISP represents 12% of all the teams at bats in this season and 28% of the runs scored. Which seems to be a pretty nice ratio for RBI's obtained in that small percentage of at bats.

Frankly, a sub .400 slg percentage in RISP with 2 outs bothers me more than hits... only 6 doubles?

That's sad.

Kc61
05-25-2006, 12:38 PM
BA measures the frequency of hits to at bats. The fact that the Reds have a low percentage of hits to at bats with men on RISP is disturbing. The fact that the Reds have a .185 BA with men on third and less than two outs is also disturbing.

If the Reds continue to do well, they will find themselves in some important, tight games. There is a need to be able to take advantage of scoring opportunities in those games. Getting hits at a .185 clip in those spots doesn't do it for me.

I think RedsmanRick makes a good point that the Reds seem to have many scoring opportunities so they perhaps can withhstand a somewhat lower percentage success rate.

SteelSD
05-26-2006, 02:04 AM
BA measures the frequency of hits to at bats. The fact that the Reds have a low percentage of hits to at bats with men on RISP is disturbing. The fact that the Reds have a .185 BA with men on third and less than two outs is also disturbing.

If the Reds continue to do well, they will find themselves in some important, tight games. There is a need to be able to take advantage of scoring opportunities in those games. Getting hits at a .185 clip in those spots doesn't do it for me.

I think RedsmanRick makes a good point that the Reds seem to have many scoring opportunities so they perhaps can withhstand a somewhat lower percentage success rate.

And yet, the Reds don't have a lower success rate with RISP. The Reds lead the NL in Runs Scored per At Bat and per Plate Appearance with Runners in Scoring Position.

The problem with your reasoning is that you think Base Hit per AB rate (BA) matters so you begin with a false premise (that a lower BA team w/RISP must be producing poorly). They're not of course. Same as last year.

But hey, let's take a look at the following guys you might see written on a Reds lineup card in any combination of 8 on any given night...

Adam Dunn
Austin Kearns
Felipe Lopez
Brandon Phillips
Edwin Encarnacion
Rich Aurilia
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Freel
Ken Griffey Junior
Jason Larue
Javier Valentin
David Ross

RedsManRick gave you some bad data, unfortunately (he gave you BA w/RISP and 2 Out). The players listed above have combined so far this season with a Runner on 3rd and less than 2 Out for a .328 Batting Average. So the primary group has acquired Hits at a higher rate than you thought in that situation. Combined, they have also acquired 60 RBI in a total of 58 At Bats.

Neato. The Reds, contrary to what your eyes told you, are scoring a bunch of Runs with Runners on 3rd and less than two Out. Must be the Batting Average, huh? Uh-uh. Time to boggle your mind.

First, neither Griffey nor Freel have acquired a single AB in that situation so there's nothing to track. Their input to that situation- 0. And no one on the team has more than 11 AB with a Runner on 3rd and less than 2 Out, so putting any stock in anyone's performance is quite the bad idea (sample size and all that). But here's the kicker...

Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Jason Larue, and David Ross have acquired exactly ZERO Hits combined in that situation over a combined 18 At Bats. Yet they've combined for 14 RBI. Not only is Batting Average meaningless with RISP, it's particularly meaningless when applied to that particular situation.

Just takes some brain re-wiring to realize that.

Kc61
05-26-2006, 07:54 AM
Still would like to see the overall data of Reds:

1. Entire team BA with man on third less than two outs, and comparison to other teams;

2. Team frequency of scoring with man on third less than two outs (frequency, not number of runs) as compared with other teams.

Raisor
05-26-2006, 08:19 AM
Still would like to see the overall data of Reds:

1. Entire team BA with man on third less than two outs, and comparison to other teams;

2. Team frequency of scoring with man on third less than two outs (frequency, not number of runs) as compared with other teams.


The data is available out there, go to town.

RedsManRick
05-26-2006, 09:20 AM
Whoops -- Steel caught me. I indeed was posting the lines with 2 out -- misread the post. My bad.