PDA

View Full Version : Is our offense as good as the stats say?



paulrichjr
05-27-2006, 10:28 PM
I know that people have a lot of stats to show that the Reds problems are not associated with their hitting, but it seems that this team doesn't hit that well. I am wondering what their stats are since the first 3 or so weeks of the season when it seemed every game we scored 7 runs or more. Now, it seems we get shutout 3 out of 7 days. I know that is exaggerating but this team isn't scoring many runs anymore and they are getting shutout a lot. I totally believe our bullpen needs a lot of help and it is true that our starters are not the best in the business but many games they are keeping a real good offense in the game(unlike last year). It just seems lately that we have not been a real good offense.

M2
05-27-2006, 11:11 PM
I know that people have a lot of stats to show that the Reds problems are not associated with their hitting, but it seems that this team doesn't hit that well.

A) People don't have stats. The Reds do. People just look them up.

B) It doesn't seem that way to me (largely because it's not the case).

dsmith421
05-27-2006, 11:12 PM
The Reds' offense is in a collective slump (for whatever reason) right now. They'll snap out of it at some point, but I can almost guarantee you the pitching will fall apart almost simulateously. Sad to say, I think this is a 90 loss team regressing to the mean.

BCubb2003
05-27-2006, 11:29 PM
Peaks and valleys, but no pattern I can see, except for a torrid April.
In the first 23 games, the Reds averaged 6.6 runs per game. In the next 23, they averaged 3.8. Overall, they've averaged 5.28


Runs scored per game

07 .......
08 ........
06 ......
07 .......
11 ...........
03 ...
09 .........
01 .
08 ........
01 .
03 ...
07 .......
09 .........
06 ......
09 .........
12 ............
03 ...
00
11 ...........
04 ....
06 ......
05 .....
05 .....
06 ......
02 ..
06 ......
03 ...
00
01 .
01 .
09 .........
01 .
09 .........
05 .....
04 ....
00
01 .
03 ...
02 ..
09 .........
09 .........
06 ......
00
15 ...............
07 .......
02 ..
00
00

Caveat Emperor
05-27-2006, 11:46 PM
DATE G AB RC RC27 BB/PA BB/K IsoP SecA P/PA XBH TPA AB/HR BA OBP SLG OPS
April 25 850 149.9 6.14 .122 0.68 .201 .367 3.90 96 997 23.6 .267 .362 .468 .831
May 23 787 112.9 4.90 .098 0.52 .159 .291 3.84 66 901 27.1 .253 .333 .412 .745


Walking less, hitting for less power, getting on base less frequently. It's a slump of the highest order this month, but the talent is there to turn this around. It's not like the Reds shot out of the gate and shocked the world by scoring runs -- this is an offense that has been prolific before 2006 and will continue to be prolific in the future.

BCubb2003
05-28-2006, 12:11 AM
So you're saying that instead of regressing to mean, the Reds will soon be progressing to the mean?

Caveat Emperor
05-28-2006, 12:15 AM
So you're saying that instead of regressing to mean, the Reds will soon be progressing to the mean?

Like all things in life, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. The Reds aren't as good as they looked in April, and probably aren't as bad offensively as they've looked in May. Where the "mean" is, precisely, is difficult to tell. May has been a market correction, though. The only question in my mind is whether May brought the team to where it will stay or if it can oscillate back up. I tend to believe the latter.

I think some players are underperforming (Griffey, Dunn, Freel, LaRue) and some players are overperforming (Hatteberg & Phillips) while still others are probably about where they should be (Lopez & Kearns -- jury is still out on Encarnacion). They certainly aren't "shut out back to back nights" bad.

oregonred
05-28-2006, 01:12 AM
DATE G AB RC RC27 BB/PA BB/K IsoP SecA P/PA XBH TPA AB/HR BA OBP SLG OPS
April 25 850 149.9 6.14 .122 0.68 .201 .367 3.90 96 997 23.6 .267 .362 .468 .831
May 23 787 112.9 4.90 .098 0.52 .159 .291 3.84 66 901 27.1 .253 .333 .412 .745


Walking less, hitting for less power, getting on base less frequently. It's a slump of the highest order this month, but the talent is there to turn this around. It's not like the Reds shot out of the gate and shocked the world by scoring runs -- this is an offense that has been prolific before 2006 and will continue to be prolific in the future.

Wow, didn't realize it was that different across the two months with the key meaningful measureables. More like 4.5 RC in May without the 15 run outburst the other night -- 4.9 is still close to an impressive 800 runs a season so it's not that awful in aggreagate. 8 of the last 13 games with three runs or less.

Felt like May should have been 3-4 games better and 30-19 would be a whole lot nicer to build from than 27-22...

I'd love to know what the Reds staff ERA would be with the Cards defense behind it. (and vice-versa).

Cyclone792
05-28-2006, 02:00 AM
HA, thanks for the numbers, CE.

And to think there's people out there that say walks don't matter. :help:

Hmmm ... let's think about this for a second ...

When walks go down, it is likely an indicator that hitters are swinging at more bad pitches. When hitters swing at more bad pitches, their extra base hit total drops and their overall total bases drops, which is a fancy way of saying that our hitters are hitting fewer doubles and fewer home runs. Of course, if that isn't enough evidence, then drop in IsoP and SecA just piles on more evidence to that point.

For the folks that still think walks don't matter, chew on this: When the team starts walking at a higher frequency, such as they did in April, then our extra base hit total will climb back up again, our IsoP and SecA will climb back up again, our total bases overall will climb back up again, and most importantly, our runs per game will climb back up again. Mark my words, that's what'll happen.

Getting a good pitch to hit, plate discipline and walks ... it's the fuel for an offense. When an offense is out of fuel, it sputters. When an offense is fueled regularly, it flourishes and dominates.

GAC
05-28-2006, 06:37 AM
Good post Cyclone.

But I don't think people are saying that walks don't matter.

What I see with some of our hitters, and I've watched practically every game this year - and you hit on it (plate discipline) - is that they are looking(taking) some great pitches that get them behind in the count and put them at the pitcher's mercy and having to then protect the plate, thus swinging at bad pitches.

I believe in a strong plate discipline, and being able to see/recognize your pitch. And I don't care if that pitch is the first pitch.

These guys aren't doing that.

Is there a point where you can take plate "patience" too far? I don't know.

But I definitely don't think walks don't matter.

I guess what I am trying to say (and maybe not so eloquently).... is there any situation where a walk is not helpful? I'm obviously not saying avoid a walk if the pitcher is gonna accomodate you. But I've see many situations this year, with runners in scoring position, and guys up there looking at/taking pitches right down the pike. It's like they are up there looking to take a walk, when a walk in those particular situations is not really what we need from those that we rely on to drive runs in.

And I'm not saying they should be up there hacking away either. But they seem to be putting themselves in a hole in the count where that is exactly what they are doing.

Again - it comes full circle to plate discipline and being able to see your pitch.

And finally - it sure doesn't seem like our players, for the most part, are able to use the entire field and take what a pitcher gives them and go the other way.

RANDY IN INDY
05-28-2006, 08:45 AM
Good post, GAC!:beerme:

paulrichjr
05-28-2006, 09:42 AM
The Reds are in a mightly slump right now but I didn't realize that they hadn't scored a run in 21 innings.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060528/SPT04/605280379/1071

Back-to-back shutouts
Lack of execution leads to 6th shutout of season
BY KEVIN KELLY | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
The Reds led the National League in six offensive categories last season, including runs scored.

What they wouldn't do for one right about now.

A second consecutive shutout loss against the Diamondbacks - this time 7-0 Saturday before 36,884 fans at Great American Ball Park - pushed the Reds' losing streak to three games and their scoreless streak to 21 innings.


It was the sixth time they've been shut out and the third time in the past six games.
"At some point, we'll get it going and get on a roll," Reds manager Jerry Narron said. "It's just a little bit disappointing.

"We've had some guys in scoring position and have not done anything. I know our hitters are better than that."

The Reds have 12 hits and are 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position in the series.

"It's the routine stuff that's costing us," third baseman Rich Aurilia said. "We're all guilty of it. It's not getting guys in from third. It's not making plays. It's not making pitches. It's everything."

Arizona starting pitcher Juan Cruz, who earned his first win in 15 appearances against the Reds, allowed four hits over six innings. No Reds baserunner reached third base during the game.

It's the first time since Sept. 23-24, 2003, that the Reds have been shut out in consecutive games.

"The bright spot in all of this is if we can continue to pitch, we can definitely turn it around and get back on a roll," Narron said. "If you're getting bad pitching, it's tough to turn that around."

Aaron Harang allowed two earned runs on eight hits over seven innings. The right-hander (5-4) is winless despite a 3.55 ERA in his past four starts.

Reds starters are 2-4 with a 2.85 ERA and four quality starts over the past six games.

"We're just trying to go out there, go as long as we can into games and give up as few runs as possible," Harang said. "The way things are going, it happens."

Arizona led 4-0 when second baseman Orlando Hudson hit a three-run home run to left field off Reds reliever Kent Mercker in the eighth.

"I don't think there are many worries about whether we're going to come out of it or not," Aurilia said. "We're going to come out of it."