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View Full Version : Why is Homer Bailey so "off limits?"



George Foster
05-29-2006, 09:48 PM
Why is this guy still in rookie ball in Florida? Why is he not at least in Chatanooga? He's pitched over 50 innings with less than a 3.5 ERA. Is this guys head so delicate that he can't take some licks in AA ball? We need starting pitching or at the least help in the bullpen. This guy's 96mph fastball can't help us out in the bullpen right now?

Send him to AA or AAA for the next 6 weeks and see how he does. He's a big boy, he's not fine china. We could use him in the second half of the season. He could see what it takes to be a big league starter by watching Arroyo and Harang. This will help him make the big club out of spring training next year.

I've heard, "we don't want to hurt his arm," like an inning in the minors is easier than an inning in the big leagues on your arm. Get him out of rookie ball and challange this kid, lets see what he has. He if pitches well in AA or AAA in the next six weeks, give him a spot in the bull pen.

Heath
05-29-2006, 09:57 PM
Two Words - Brian Reith.

If the Reds, "gary-nolan-ed" Homer, the short term prognosis might be good, but not very good at the end.

I've heard (Re: People who get paid to "guess" at this) that he's heading for a Sept 2007 call-up. I'd take that as Best case scenario.

M2
05-29-2006, 09:57 PM
50 IP barely counts as making an appearance at a given level and it's certainly nowhere near enough for a guy to make the rounds. Also, a 3.48 ERA in the FSL for a guy who entered this season with a career 4.42 ERA isn't exactly screaming "promote me!"

The overwhelming majority of pitchers aren't ready to put up a decent season in the bigs until they're 24. Homer Bailey just turned 20 and he's been nowhere near the head of his class to date. I know Reds fans are used to seeing prospect arms rushed, but constantly seeking to put a kid in over his head hasn't proven a wise developmental philosophy. For anyone expecting Homer Bailey to be some sort of near-term panacea, I think you're fishing in empty waters and for anyone hoping the Reds push him aggressively, I hope the Reds handling of him winds up irking you something fierce.

flyer85
05-29-2006, 10:05 PM
Two Words - Brian Reith.
I understand point but Reith was never more than a middling prospect and the reason he failed had more to do with a lack of ability than being promoted too quickly(though he was).

The reason not to rush Bailey is that he is going through the progression of building arm strength and learning how to pitch and command his off speed stuff. Attempting to rush it or overwork him will likely have negative results.

Be patient, his performance will tell when it is time for him to move. The best for him will have him pitch 140 or so innings this year and 170 or so next year.

redsmetz
05-29-2006, 10:08 PM
I think we're going to find the hallmark of this new administration is PATIENCE - all things in their time. I think we're going to less of this hurrying guys to the bigs just to see them flare out. I think some aptly noted Bailey is just 20 - give him time, give him time.

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:12 PM
I thought he was 21 or 22 not 20. With that being said, I would like to see him challanged in at least Dayton. He had a pretty good spring training against big league hitters.

cincyinco
05-29-2006, 10:13 PM
I have a question for you guys..

Since when is the Florida State League, a high A affiliate, a rookie league? Homer is a one level away from AA. Last I checked, he doesn't play short season or rookie ball.

edabbs44
05-29-2006, 10:13 PM
I'd like to see him get up to AA sometime in the near future...there are some pitchers who you could say were rushed, but there are others who did just fine. I think we'd all take a Josh Beckett on the Reds roster right now.

TOBTTReds
05-29-2006, 10:15 PM
Sarasota isn't exactly rookie ball. But I expect that he will be in AA after the AS break. He deserves it I think. He would do fine there I believe.


Homer Bailey just turned 20 and he's been nowhere near the head of his class to date

Not sure if you meant draft class, or leagues he is playing in, but, he was voted the best pitcher in the Midwest League last year. I think that is the head of the class. This year he has been over matching hitters. He did last year too in low-A. Yeah his era wasn't 1.50, but he was VERY good.

This year he is 4th in K's, 8th in WHIP, and an opposing avg. of .198 (dont have the ranking available). His line is very good. I think he is very much so in the top of his class. I've seen him pitch numerous times and he just stands out as a pitcher, and a professional. When he stands on the mound, he silently tells the hitter that he is going to dominate him. Then usually does.

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:16 PM
I have a question for you guys..

Since when is the Florida State League, a high A affiliate, a rookie league? Homer is a one level away from AA. Last I checked, he doesn't play short season or rookie ball.

I was under the impression that the Dayton affiliate is the Reds true A league and Sarasota and Billings is their low A or "rookie league."

TOBTTReds
05-29-2006, 10:19 PM
I have a question for you guys..

Since when is the Florida State League, a high A affiliate, a rookie league? Homer is a one level away from AA. Last I checked, he doesn't play short season or rookie ball.

Relax man. It's OK. We do have a Rookie league team in Sarasota, he probably just thought that is the team Homer is on.

George, the team Homer Bailey is on is right below AA-Chattanooga. We have two Sarasota teams and he is on the High-A level team.

Unassisted
05-29-2006, 10:22 PM
I was under the impression that the Dayton affiliate is the Reds true A league and Sarasota and Billings is their low A or "rookie league."I think your confusion stems from the fact that there are two Reds minor league clubs based in Sarasota. The Sarasota Reds are the High-A club (Dayton is Low-A) and the GCL Reds are the Rookie League Club there. (Billings is the other Rookie League affiliate.)

The list of affiliates is at http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/minorleagues/team_index.jsp?c_id=cin

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:26 PM
Relax man. It's OK. We do have a Rookie league team in Sarasota, he probably just thought that is the team Homer is on.

George, the team Homer Bailey is on is right below AA-Chattanooga. We have two Sarasota teams and he is on the High-A level team.

Do the Dayton A league and the Sarasota A league have the same talant level? I just assumed that the Dayton League had better talant.

Danny Serafini
05-29-2006, 10:29 PM
Sarasota's A ball team is a step ahead of Dayton.

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:29 PM
Do the Dayton A league and the Sarasota A league have the same talant level? I just assumed that the Dayton League had better talant.

Post #12 answered my question:thumbup:

flyer85
05-29-2006, 10:31 PM
Generally the jump to AA ball is considered the toughest in the minors.

cincyinco
05-29-2006, 10:32 PM
I was under the impression that the Dayton affiliate is the Reds true A league and Sarasota and Billings is their low A or "rookie league."

Info for anyone who is interested:

Louisville is AAA
Chatanooga is AA
Sarasota is A+
Dayton is A

Their rookie level teams are:

Billing Mustangs and the GCL Reds.

And sorry if I came off sounding harsh, did not intend it that way... just wondering more myself if I was misinformed.. Thats why I posed my original post in this thread with "I have a question for you guys.. "

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:33 PM
Generally the jump to AA ball is considered the toughest in the minors.

I've heard the same. Don't most teams have most of their "future major league talant" in AA ball?

Krusty
05-29-2006, 10:35 PM
I think we have seen during the Bowden Era that rushing pitchers through the system causes more harm than good.

cincyinco
05-29-2006, 10:37 PM
I've heard the same. Don't most teams have most of their "future major league talant" in AA ball?

Depends on the organization really... Some teams have legit prospects at all levels(i.e. the Brewers, D'backs, Angels, etc..). The Reds farm is pretty thin, and bottom loaded. Thats why you see most of our major prospects at A ball. A couple of good drafts by Krivsky and I think you'll see our farm much improved with added depth.

It would be nice if we had exciting prospects in our organization beyond Homer, Bruce, and Wood.

wolfboy
05-29-2006, 10:38 PM
50 IP barely counts as making an appearance at a given level and it's certainly nowhere near enough for a guy to make the rounds. Also, a 3.48 ERA in the FSL for a guy who entered this season with a career 4.42 ERA isn't exactly screaming "promote me!"

The overwhelming majority of pitchers aren't ready to put up a decent season in the big until they're 24. Homer Bailey just turned 20 and he's been nowhere near the head of his class to date. I know Reds fans are used to seeing prospect arms rushed, but constantly seeking to put a kid in over his head hasn't proven a wise developmental philosophy. For anyone expecting Homer Bailey to be some sort of near-term panacea, I think you're fishing in empty waters and for anyone hoping the Reds push him aggressively, I hope the Reds handling of him winds up irking you something fierce.

Good points. I really hope the Reds take a 1st round pitcher for the simple reason that it will take some attention away from Bailey. This guy really needs to take it slow, and develop some consistency before we consider a promotion. The problem is that this guy is the first pitcher in the system in a while that's shown some promise. Everyone's got an itchy trigger finger. Hopefully, we begin to draft some quality pitching depth. Then, everyone won't be dying to claim our Zales quality pitching prospects are the Hope Diamond.

edabbs44
05-29-2006, 10:39 PM
I think we have seen during the Bowden Era that rushing pitchers through the system causes more harm than good.
That's something I have always wondered...do you think it's been the pitchers in the system that have caused the problems (i.e., bad drafting) or the system itself? For example, do you think Kazmir would be doing damage in the NL Central if the Reds selected him in 2002 or would he be on perma-rehab in Florida like Gruler?

cincyinco
05-29-2006, 10:40 PM
I think we have seen during the Bowden Era that rushing pitchers through the system causes more harm than good.

Agree for the most part, especially with pitchers. But I also believe each prospect has to be weighed on his own. If the talent is there, then play them at the level they deserve to play. Don't keep them in the minors simply because they haven't been a pro long enough. If they can ball they can ball. These are special cases though, and rare in baseball. They are the Ken Griffey Jr(in his prime) and Albert Pujols' of the baseball world.

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:40 PM
Info for anyone who is interested:

Louisville is AAA
Chatanooga is AA
Sarasota is A+
Dayton is A

Their rookie level teams are:

Billing Mustangs and the GCL Reds.

And sorry if I came off sounding harsh, did not intend it that way... just wondering more myself if I was misinformed.. Thats why I posed my original post in this thread with "I have a question for you guys.. "

I did not take it that way! Thanks for educating me. The A+ and A would be a better way to display the leagues on the Reds web site. Just from a weather stand point, I would rather have my better talant in Dayton than the 100 degree heat in South Florida. Those games must be brutal.

George Foster
05-29-2006, 10:44 PM
Agree for the most part, especially with pitchers. But I also believe each prospect has to be weighed on his own. If the talent is there, then play them at the level they deserve to play. Don't keep them in the minors simply because they haven't been a pro long enough. If they can ball they can ball. These are special cases though, and rare in baseball. They are the Ken Griffey Jr(in his prime) and Albert Pujols' of the baseball world.

Do you think we might have brought Kearns up a little to early?

Heath
05-29-2006, 10:50 PM
Do you think we might have brought Kearns up a little to early?

I think that was a deal where the Reds had Dunn AND Kearns at the same time. I think, IIRC, that Kearns was actually ahead of Dunn, but Dunn could absolutely crush the ball.

I think Dunn and Kearns lean on each other. If there is one "deficiency", I think both are so laid-back, they don't push each other - it's probably more of a "gentle ribbing".

cincyinco
05-29-2006, 10:57 PM
Do you think we might have brought Kearns up a little to early?

I don't think we did. The kid was raking when he made the team and I think his decline directly correlates with the collision with Ray King. I think it hurt his shoulder. Combine that with the issues with his hands and him not being able to hold on to the bat, and you have some years where he underperformed.

flyer85
05-29-2006, 11:04 PM
Both were probably rushed. It is interesting to note the change in approach for Dunn in the last week. Reminds of the Dunn from the first half of the 2002 season.

redsmetz
05-29-2006, 11:42 PM
I was under the impression that the Dayton affiliate is the Reds true A league and Sarasota and Billings is their low A or "rookie league."

Midwest League (Dayton) is the Low A level. Sarasota is in the High A level.

Outshined_One
05-29-2006, 11:52 PM
I did not take it that way! Thanks for educating me. The A+ and A would be a better way to display the leagues on the Reds web site. Just from a weather stand point, I would rather have my better talant in Dayton than the 100 degree heat in South Florida. Those games must be brutal.

I never really liked the FSL because of hurricane season. It always seems like there are endless rainouts from August until September. Heck, I think two years ago they even cancelled the season because the hurricanes kept coming, one after another.

Then again, summer in the Midwest isn't exactly mild.

TOBTTReds
05-30-2006, 12:00 AM
I don't think we did. The kid was raking when he made the team and I think his decline directly correlates with the collision with Ray King. I think it hurt his shoulder. Combine that with the issues with his hands and him not being able to hold on to the bat, and you have some years where he underperformed.

Getting sat on by a fat man is never good for your career.

cincyinco
05-30-2006, 01:00 AM
Getting sat on by a fat man is never good for your career.

Agreed..

However, working next to a fat man was great for a guy named Jake!

http://www.lrt.lt/images/movies/pictures/431726l.jpg

tbball10
05-30-2006, 01:44 AM
Good points. I really hope the Reds take a 1st round pitcher for the simple reason that it will take some attention away from Bailey. This guy really needs to take it slow, and develop some consistency before we consider a promotion. The problem is that this guy is the first pitcher in the system in a while that's shown some promise. Everyone's got an itchy trigger finger. Hopefully, we begin to draft some quality pitching depth. Then, everyone won't be dying to claim our Zales quality pitching prospects are the Hope Diamond.

good point, but although i think homer the best pitching prospect we have, i don't think he's the only one. johnny cueto (5-1 2.49era, 59k/6bb in 47ip) has put his name near the ranks of bailey with an outstanding start in dayton. travis wood (4-0 3.35era) is having another great year, and camilio vazquez (3-1 2.98era) has really surprised me this year in sarasota. he's 22, left-handed and supposedly throws 95, so he is a guy to watch. it was mentioned that the jump to AA is the hardest in baseball, and tyler pelland (3-1 3.63era), another hard-throwing lefty is having a good year in chattanooga, even though his BB rate worries me.

i also think ward, chick, dumatrait, lecure, fisher, avery, and stevens have hope as starters, and if they don't work out, they could be moved to the pen. shafer, guevara, coutlangus, medlock, woody, wagner and lanier are decent relief pitching prospects.

BCubb2003
05-30-2006, 03:35 AM
I'm not completely sure of the order, but didn't Kearns go from Chattanooga to the Reds as an emergency fill-in for Griffey in 2002, got off to a really hot start, got sent to Louisville for one game, then came back for the rest of the season? Then of course got sent down various times later for re-education.

redsmetz
05-30-2006, 06:39 AM
I'm not completely sure of the order, but didn't Kearns go from Chattanooga to the Reds as an emergency fill-in for Griffey in 2002, got off to a really hot start, got sent to Louisville for one game, then came back for the rest of the season? Then of course got sent down various times later for re-education.

From his bio on reds.com, breakdown of his debut time here:


Began the season at Class AA Chattanooga and appeared in 12g there (.268, 5hr, 13rbi) before he was promoted on 4/17, when Sean Casey was unable to play after his 4/13 beaning by Phi's Robert Person

that night vs Hou made his Major League debut and collected his first career hit in his second plate appearance, an RBI-single off Carlos Hernandez

when promoted from Chattanooga led the Southern League in both HR and RBI...was the fifth Reds player in the last 2 seasons to make his Major League debut while skipping Class AAA (RHP Jose Acevedo, RHP Chris Piersoll, RHP Brian Reith and RHP Chris Reitsma in 2001)

earned that 4/17 promotion by hitting safely in each of his last 7g with the Lookouts (10-24, .417, 5hr, 11rbi), including home runs in each of the last 4g (5hr)...during his first stint with the Reds (4/17-6/22) hit .284 (8hr, 28rbi) in 51g and 49 starts before he was optioned to Class AAA Louisville on 6/23, when RHP Luis Pineda was recalled

when he was optioned on 6/23 was 0-for-12, 1-for-21 (.048) and 5-for-34 (.147)

appeared in only 1g for the Bats (3-4, 2 2b, 2rbi, 3r) before he returned to Cin following the disabling of Ken Griffey Jr. on 6/25

after that 6/25 promotion spent the rest of the season in Cin and hit .342 (5hr, 28rbi) in 56g and 50 starts until he was injured.

deltachi8
05-30-2006, 10:40 AM
Both were probably rushed. It is interesting to note the change in approach for Dunn in the last week. Reminds of the Dunn from the first half of the 2002 season.

How so, FLyer, I dont get to see the games much, so I rely alot on whats posted here for observations like that.

M2
05-30-2006, 12:37 PM
Not sure if you meant draft class, or leagues he is playing in, but, he was voted the best pitcher in the Midwest League last year. I think that is the head of the class. This year he has been over matching hitters. He did last year too in low-A. Yeah his era wasn't 1.50, but he was VERY good.

He had a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, far from "VERY good' that's actually pretty bad pitching. There is the expectation that Homers tools will round out and that he'll become a good pitcher in actuality rather than theory, that's why he's been a highly-rated prospect. His performance last year belied his prospects ratings though.


This year he is 4th in K's, 8th in WHIP, and an opposing avg. of .198 (dont have the ranking available). His line is very good. I think he is very much so in the top of his class. I've seen him pitch numerous times and he just stands out as a pitcher, and a professional. When he stands on the mound, he silently tells the hitter that he is going to dominate him. Then usually does.

He's pitching better this year, but it's still not head of the class. There's eight guys ahead of him in WHIP, all of whom are pitching better. Another guy tied with him in WHIP who is also pitching better. And a fair number of guys behind him in WHIP who are pitching better as well. Homer's also 3rd in the FSL in HRs allowed (and it's not a HR league by any stretch of the imagination). He's not dominating other teams compared to the better pitchers in the league. He's a kid with some talent who's doing some things right and who still hasn't put it all together to be dominant.

M2
05-30-2006, 01:03 PM
I'd like to see him get up to AA sometime in the near future...there are some pitchers who you could say were rushed, but there are others who did just fine. I think we'd all take a Josh Beckett on the Reds roster right now.

Well, there's a few differences though. Beckett didn't get called up until the end of the season when he was 21. BA had rated him the #19 overal prospect immediately after he got drafted. #3 after his his first taste of the minors and #1 after being the minor league player of the year in 2001 (ahead of some guy named Adam Dunn). Bailey's never rated that high and he's certainly no threat to win minor league player of the year at the moment.

Beckett also had a 2.15 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 11.59 K/9 through the minors. He was destroying opposing hitters in a way Bailey hasn't come close to matching as of yet. If Homer Bailey starts pitching like he's one of the top three pitchers in all of the minor leagues and opposing teams can't seem to lay finger on him, then I think we can have the discussion about whether the Reds should aggressively promote until him. Until then he's a kid with some talent and some flaws to work through who hasn't showed an advanced learning curve and promoting him above where is now is more wishful thinking that sober prospect development.

TOBTTReds
05-30-2006, 01:16 PM
He had a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, far from "VERY good' that's actually pretty bad pitching. There is the expectation that Homers tools will round out and that he'll become a good pitcher in actuality rather than theory, that's why he's been a highly-rated prospect. His performance last year belied his prospects ratings though.



He's pitching better this year, but it's still not head of the class. There's eight guys ahead of him in WHIP, all of whom are pitching better. Another guy tied with him in WHIP who is also pitching better. And a fair number of guys behind him in WHIP who are pitching better as well. Homer's also 3rd in the FSL in HRs allowed (and it's not a HR league by any stretch of the imagination). He's not dominating other teams compared to the better pitchers in the league. He's a kid with some talent who's doing some things right and who still hasn't put it all together to be dominant.

Good points.

NewEraReds
05-30-2006, 01:16 PM
Why is this guy still in rookie ball in Florida? Why is he not at least in Chatanooga? He's pitched over 50 innings with less than a 3.5 ERA. Is this guys head so delicate that he can't take some licks in AA ball? We need starting pitching or at the least help in the bullpen. This guy's 96mph fastball can't help us out in the bullpen right now?

Send him to AA or AAA for the next 6 weeks and see how he does. He's a big boy, he's not fine china. We could use him in the second half of the season. He could see what it takes to be a big league starter by watching Arroyo and Harang. This will help him make the big club out of spring training next year.

I've heard, "we don't want to hurt his arm," like an inning in the minors is easier than an inning in the big leagues on your arm. Get him out of rookie ball and challange this kid, lets see what he has. He if pitches well in AA or AAA in the next six weeks, give him a spot in the bull pen.
because you want this guy to be GREAT not good. GREAT! for that, he needs experience. he needs to learn how to PITCH not just throw. he needs to develop his other pitchers, etc, etc, etc. and he isnt in rookie ball. he is in high class a

when you rush great prospects, you dont allow them to fully develop, learn all the nuiances of the game, improve all aspects of their game, and be complete players once they do get up to the bigs. heck, adam dunn could use a few more years in the minors, RIGHT NOW. :) im joking yet being serious :)

NewEraReds
05-30-2006, 01:20 PM
He had a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, far from "VERY good' that's actually pretty bad pitching. There is the expectation that Homers tools will round out and that he'll become a good pitcher in actuality rather than theory, that's why he's been a highly-rated prospect. His performance last year belied his prospects ratings though.



He's pitching better this year, but it's still not head of the class. There's eight guys ahead of him in WHIP, all of whom are pitching better. Another guy tied with him in WHIP who is also pitching better. And a fair number of guys behind him in WHIP who are pitching better as well. Homer's also 3rd in the FSL in HRs allowed (and it's not a HR league by any stretch of the imagination). He's not dominating other teams compared to the better pitchers in the league. He's a kid with some talent who's doing some things right and who still hasn't put it all together to be dominant.which is why you dont call him up. you look at the numbers that tell you things.

there are numbers that tell you he is a great pitcher - so, opp avg, etc.

there are numbers that tell you he isnt ready yet - hr allowed, whip, era, etc

he shows the numbers that tell you he has the stuff, but isnt polished, isnt ready. which is why you bring him along slowly and allow him to continue to develop all his pitches and learn how to pitch in all situations.

you dont want him to try to do those things in the bigs.

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 01:48 PM
Homer just needs to not pitch in Sarasota's home park. His home and road splits boggle the mind.
He gets absolutely rocked when he pitches at home and he dominates when he is on the road. The Reds play in one of the only hitters parks in the FSL, the park factor compared to the league is 0.11 higher, and its showing for Bailey.



splits IP H 2B HR BB IW HP K BAA OBP SLG OPS WHIP W/9 K/9 HR/9
Home 24.7 26 7 5 6 1 3 26 0.255 0.313 0.471 0.783 1.30 2.19 9.49 1.82
Road 27.0 12 5 1 11 0 0 35 0.132 0.225 0.220 0.445 0.85 3.67 11.67 0.33

M2
05-30-2006, 02:06 PM
Homer just needs to not pitch in Sarasota's home park. His home and road splits boggle the mind.
He gets absolutely rocked when he pitches at home and he dominates when he is on the road. The Reds play in one of the only hitters parks in the FSL, the park factor compared to the league is 0.11 higher, and its showing for Bailey.

Well, he's going to have to pitch in the GAB someday if he wants to make it with the Reds. Also, he's got the highest HR/9 on the team. So I'm glad he's in Sarasota to hopefully learn his way out of potential gopheritis in the future.

TeamBoone
05-30-2006, 02:22 PM
I've heard the same. Don't most teams have most of their "future major league talant" in AA ball?

I think a big part of it is his age. Young men at his age are still developing physically and he probably even has another growth spurt ahead of him. I'm not sure you'd want him in AA yet for that reason alone, even if he's lights out.

Cooper
05-30-2006, 03:13 PM
Haven't read all the postings --know that's poor--anyways....i think you could make the case that Mr. Bailey has npt improved one iota since last year--he's in a pitchers park in a pitchers league....if you league adjusted and park adjusted his stats would they be any better than his stats from Dayton (2005)? I kinda doubt. Vice Versa, that's why i thought Votto had a better year last year than what first appears.

Btw, i know Sarasota is a step up (High A).....i just don't see any difference when adjusted.

Cooper
05-30-2006, 03:15 PM
Ahh...you guys (m2 and DD) beat me to it....day late -dollar short.

Betterread
05-30-2006, 03:49 PM
Homer Bailey should not be considered for promotion to the majors before he is ready for his major league role. Right now, he is being tutored as a starter, and he has some things to work on, including his strength and stamina, before he is ready to start at the ML level. If his role is changed to a reliever, he would probably get promoted faster, but he would still need some practice and experience in that role before being considered for a ML promotion.
I hope he can stay healthy and become a viable ML starter, because the Reds need additional quality starting pitching. I believe he is steadily progressing toward that role.

Outshined_One
05-30-2006, 04:20 PM
Homer just needs to not pitch in Sarasota's home park. His home and road splits boggle the mind.
He gets absolutely rocked when he pitches at home and he dominates when he is on the road. The Reds play in one of the only hitters parks in the FSL, the park factor compared to the league is 0.11 higher, and its showing for Bailey.



splits IP H 2B HR BB IW HP K BAA OBP SLG OPS WHIP W/9 K/9 HR/9
Home 24.7 26 7 5 6 1 3 26 0.255 0.313 0.471 0.783 1.30 2.19 9.49 1.82
Road 27.0 12 5 1 11 0 0 35 0.132 0.225 0.220 0.445 0.85 3.67 11.67 0.33


Actually, there is one key component missing from those numbers that I had to go back and dig around for since BA and MiLB.com don't officially keep them except for in box scores: Bailey's Groundout-Flyout ratio. On the season, Homer's GO-FO stands at 41-51, or approximately .8. Some of those deep flyouts in other parks find themselves out of the ballpark down in Sarasota, thus giving teams more opportunities to rack up more baserunners.

This tends to be the case with fastball-curveball pitchers whose changeups aren't all that great. These guys can typically get away with it as they move along if their stuff is really good (which is the case with Homer), but his development is absolutely critical in this regard. If he leaves his stuff up in the zone (especially that curve), he will get fried. Having a workable changeup and learning to command the bottom of the zone will make his life a heck of a lot easier, ya know?

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 04:41 PM
Haven't read all the postings --know that's poor--anyways....i think you could make the case that Mr. Bailey has npt improved one iota since last year--he's in a pitchers park in a pitchers league....if you league adjusted and park adjusted his stats would they be any better than his stats from Dayton (2005)? I kinda doubt. Vice Versa, that's why i thought Votto had a better year last year than what first appears.

Btw, i know Sarasota is a step up (High A).....i just don't see any difference when adjusted.

Sarasotas park is much more of a hitters park than nearly every park in the league. The league park factor is 896, Sarasota's park factor is 1040. That is a LARGE difference. The rest of the league is more so a pitchers league, but Bailey has made 5 of his starts in a severe hitters park, which you can obviously tell by looking at his numbers, much less the actual park factors.
If you want to look at Dayton, the league park factor is 975, and Daytons park is at 1060, which isnt near the difference of Sarasota and the rest of hte league, but Dayton is the second highest park factor in the MWL. With Homers numbers this year, in a much larger difference of park factors, I woulud say he has improved quite a bit, not to mention he is facing more advanced players.

dabvu2498
05-30-2006, 05:03 PM
not to mention he is facing more advanced players.
I would guess that many/most of the players in the FSL were in Low A last year as well. I wouldn't use the step up in competition as an "excuse" for Homer's poor numbers just yet. Like someone said earlier, the huge jump is from High A to AA.

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 05:05 PM
I think you misunderstood what I was saying dabvu2498. I was saying his numbers are actually much more impressive because of the guys he is facing. His numbers are nowhere near poor, they are actually quite good.

dabvu2498
05-30-2006, 05:11 PM
You're right. I misunderstood and then I didn't express myself very well either. Stupid! Stupid!

Aronchis
05-30-2006, 10:02 PM
The Bailey issue is overblown right now. He is what he is, a smooth hard throwing righty that is still quite quite green. He is a level over where he should be IMO. Put him back in Dayton, he most likely levels the league.

The problem with Bailey right now is, he isn't as valuable as you may expect. He still isn't at that point in his development where teams may feel is a good pickup. The Reds know this and are trying to hype him up IMO, maybe trying to bridge the consistancy gap by using the media to inflate Homer's ego, though doing it in high A makes it harder though if he succeeds, his value soars. My guess is the Reds trade Bailey, they get a weak return and then people complain when he does actually start dominating and maturing. It is the way of life for pitching since the 1950's for Reds fans.

Cooper
05-31-2006, 06:23 PM
Doug Dirt: look at the numbers --his road numbers are much better than his home numbers --using the logic you provided it's clear he hasn't made any real gains--even with sarasota at 1040 PF -isn't that relative to the rest of the parks in the FSL? If that is the case it's still possible that no real gains have been made by Mr. Bailey. I just don't see it --he's the same pitcher he was last year --he's in a different environment.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 07:14 PM
Cooper, Bailey is a much better pitcher this year than last year. Look at his BB/K ratio first off. This year it is slightly more than 3 strikeouts per 1 walk. He is facing more advanced hitters this year, and faring much better. Hitters are hitting less than .200 off of him this year. I think I am going to have to go Adam Dunn topic on Homer Bailey and just stay out of any and all conversations that revolve around either of them.

Betterread
05-31-2006, 07:32 PM
Cooper, Bailey is a much better pitcher this year than last year. Look at his BB/K ratio first off. This year it is slightly more than 3 strikeouts per 1 walk. He is facing more advanced hitters this year, and faring much better. Hitters are hitting less than .200 off of him this year. I think I am going to have to go Adam Dunn topic on Homer Bailey and just stay out of any and all conversations that revolve around either of them.

I agree. He is making progress and he is healthy. People who want him to be further along in his progress ought to recognize the gains he has made. I think he is an exciting prospect because his fastball is so crisp and his curveball is so dynamic - if you have not seen him pitch, you should do so

SteelSD
05-31-2006, 07:56 PM
Sarasotas park is much more of a hitters park than nearly every park in the league. The league park factor is 896, Sarasota's park factor is 1040. That is a LARGE difference. The rest of the league is more so a pitchers league, but Bailey has made 5 of his starts in a severe hitters park, which you can obviously tell by looking at his numbers, much less the actual park factors.
If you want to look at Dayton, the league park factor is 975, and Daytons park is at 1060, which isnt near the difference of Sarasota and the rest of hte league, but Dayton is the second highest park factor in the MWL. With Homers numbers this year, in a much larger difference of park factors, I woulud say he has improved quite a bit, not to mention he is facing more advanced players.

doug, a park factor of 1.040 isn't a big deal. Parks with that number are pretty near average. It's nothing resembling a "severe" hitters environment. However, if the league Park Factor is nearly 11% lower than average, the rest of the parks in that league represent a pretty significant environment in favor of pitchers.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 08:17 PM
Compared to the rest of the league, the park Sarasota plays in is much more hitter friendly steel, which is what I was pointing out. Last night he got roughed up on the road pretty bad. His road ERA is 2.82 even after that outing. For whatever reason, be it luck or something else, he gets absolutely rocked at home.

Outshined_One
05-31-2006, 09:43 PM
Compared to the rest of the league, the park Sarasota plays in is much more hitter friendly steel, which is what I was pointing out. Last night he got roughed up on the road pretty bad. His road ERA is 2.82 even after that outing. For whatever reason, be it luck or something else, he gets absolutely rocked at home.

Groundout-Flyout Ratio, imo.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 11:23 PM
For the season his GO/FO is 49/55 Overall and 19/28 at home. So I guess that could be it...

Outshined_One
05-31-2006, 11:46 PM
For the season his GO/FO is 49/55 Overall and 19/28 at home. So I guess that could be it...

It would help explain his HR/9 and his elevated ERA at home. Perhaps it does not explain it all, but long fly outs in Daytona or Brevard County would instead be HRs at Sarasota.