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OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 06:43 PM
Two of the Reds top stud are on the mound tonight, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. Cueto is looking to extend his 19 consecutive shutout innings streak.

reds44
05-30-2006, 06:48 PM
What time does the Dayton game start? Is there somewhere online I can listen?

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 06:58 PM
6:35 and I don't know about your other question. dougdirt may be able to answer that.

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 07:02 PM
You can listen to the Dayton Dragons every night they play. Just go to www.daytondragons.com and wait for the page to load. Down at the bottom right corner is a listen live button, just click on that and there you go. To listen to the Sarasota Reds game, you gotta get lucky and hope they are playing a team who does radio broadcasts, which is i think 2 teams in the league....

reds44
05-30-2006, 07:49 PM
And here we go. J.C. takes the hill in the bottom of the 1st.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 07:51 PM
He'll get hammered tonight because I've been praising him too much lately. That's usually how it goes.

reds44
05-30-2006, 07:53 PM
1 hit, 1 left.

1 IP, 0 ER through 1.

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:04 PM
0 hits in the second.

2 IP, 0 ER

21 scoreless

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:16 PM
Dragons up 3-0 in the 3rd, and still batting.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 08:19 PM
Homer Bailey gave up a leadoff single but got a double play and groundout to get out of it.

Scoreless after one.

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:23 PM
Uh-oh 1st and 3rd 0 out on J.C.

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:24 PM
6-4-3 DP, but the scoreless streak is over.

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:25 PM
Pop out inning over.

3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 08:25 PM
What's the deal with Reds pitchers never being able to retire the bottom of the order?

Cueto went through the first seven hitters with no trouble and then allows the eight and nine hitters to reach base.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 08:27 PM
Cueto, like Travis Wood a few days ago, appears to be pitching without his good stuff tonight. Zero K's through three for Cueto, who came into the game with a strikeout rate of 11.30.

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 08:31 PM
it was a good run wasnt it?

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:42 PM
4 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER

Still 3-1 Daytom

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 08:47 PM
Another disappointing performance by Bailey so far.

2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 1 K against a weak lineup. I'm starting to think this guy is never going to put it together.

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:51 PM
Another disappointing performance by Bailey so far.

2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 1 K against a weak lineup. I'm starting to think this guy is never going to put it together.
:bang:

He is 20.

reds44
05-30-2006, 08:53 PM
1,2,3 inning for Cueto.

5 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 ER

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 08:57 PM
:bang:

He is 20.

:bang:

He's inconsistent.

I'm not giving up on him, but he needs to start dominating, and soon. The great one's typically dominate the minors...Bailey has yet to do that.

Aronchis
05-30-2006, 08:58 PM
Another disappointing performance by Bailey so far.

2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 1 K against a weak lineup. I'm starting to think this guy is never going to put it together.

Bailey played in low competition in HS which should have signalled to people he was a 4 year deal. As I said earlier, he will not IMO put together consistancy to the last 1-1.5 months much like last year in Dayton except no tandom BS to bother. He isn't going to AA either. Bailey himself admits he has alot of learning to do.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2006, 08:58 PM
Cueto: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 8 GO/4 FO

reds44
05-30-2006, 09:01 PM
Bottom 6, still 3-1 Dragons.

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 09:02 PM
Bailey makes it through the 3rd, still 2-0 Ft Myers

reds44
05-30-2006, 09:06 PM
1st and 3rd 0 outs for Michigan.

reds44
05-30-2006, 09:13 PM
3-3 now

man on 3rd.

reds44
05-30-2006, 09:14 PM
Cueto k's him

6 IP, 6 H, 3 R

reds44
05-30-2006, 09:20 PM
Cueto is out.

6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER.

CTA513
05-30-2006, 10:13 PM
Bailey (Sarasota Reds): 5 IP, 7 Hits, 5 Runs, 4 BB, 3 K

Shearn (Bats): 5 IP, 1 Hit, 0 Runs, 2 BB, 1 K
Salmon (Bats): 2 IP, 1 Hit, 0 Runs, 1 BB, 2 K
Salmon since being promoted to AAA: 8.2 IP, 4 Hits, 0 Runs, 2 BB, 12 K

Olmedo (Bats): 2 for 5 with a 2B and 3 RBIs
Gutierrez (Bats): 2 for 5 with a 2B and 3 RBIs
Varner (Lookouts): 2 for 2 with a HR (6th of the year)

Every Bats starter has a hit except Sanchez who is 0 for 4.

dougdirt
05-30-2006, 10:25 PM
Bailey plays for the Sarasota Reds, not Dayton Dragons

wolfboy
05-30-2006, 10:30 PM
:bang:

He's inconsistent.

I'm not giving up on him, but he needs to start dominating, and soon. The great one's typically dominate the minors...Bailey has yet to do that.

I think the expectations put on the guy are too high. Like I said in another thread, he isn't the Hope Diamond. We would have seen that right away. He could still turn out to be a good major league pitcher, but he simply isn't the once in a decade type some expect him to be. Honestly, I'd be happy if the guy could put up Harang like numbers down the road. The Reds haven't developed something of that caliber in a very long time.

cincyinco
05-30-2006, 10:36 PM
Another disappointing performance by Bailey so far.

2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 1 K against a weak lineup. I'm starting to think this guy is never going to put it together.

lol.. jeez.. the guy is 20..

PATIENCE! :beerme:

Aronchis
05-30-2006, 10:48 PM
I think the expectations put on the guy are too high. Like I said in another thread, he isn't the Hope Diamond. We would have seen that right away. He could still turn out to be a good major league pitcher, but he simply isn't the once in a decade type some expect him to be. Honestly, I'd be happy if the guy could put up Harang like numbers down the road. The Reds haven't developed something of that caliber in a very long time.

I agree. He wasn't even rated as having the best "stuff" in that draft. Verlander and Rodgers were. Bailey got a lot of his allies through his frame/mechanics(Which Krivsky even admitted himself is important) which lead to him being called the "complete" package before the draft, but he didn't go in the top 3 and it wasn't because of signability reasons. He is a pure "smooth" power pitcher with decent stuff. He is also very green due to IMO playing in a pretty low competitive level in HS.

Reds fans are so desperate for a stud they will overrate pitchers like Cueto for example who put together a few good starts in a row on his proper age level and bash Bailey because they struggle adjusting to a league no matter how "pitching friendly" is 21.

Superdude
05-31-2006, 12:46 AM
Bailey got a lot of his allies through his frame/mechanics

What happened to all this projectability talk? I hate to be the one to complain about a fastball that reaches 97MPH, but wasn't he doing that two years and 20 pounds ago? He's now got his right arm hanging off of a glorious pitching frame, and everything I read about him says he throws 91-94. That's obviously good, but crap, Belisle can do that!

Aronchis
05-31-2006, 12:48 AM
What happened to all this projectability talk? I hate to be the one to complain about a fastball that reaches 97MPH, but wasn't he doing that two years and 20 pounds ago? He's now got his right arm hanging off of a glorious pitching frame, and everything I read about him says he throws 91-94. That's obviously good, but crap, Belisle can do that!

His last start he threw 97.

Superdude
05-31-2006, 12:48 AM
Two thirds of the earth's surface is covered by water.

The rest is covered by Chris Denorfia.

That's quite possibly the greatest quote of all-time. Brings back some good Chuck Norris memories. :laugh:

Patrick Bateman
05-31-2006, 01:41 AM
Brad Salmon seems to be figuring it out this year. If he keeps it up I'd expect him to make the Reds some time this season.

OnBaseMachine
05-31-2006, 08:07 AM
Reds fans are so desperate for a stud they will overrate pitchers like Cueto for example who put together a few good starts in a row on his proper age level and bash Bailey because they struggle adjusting to a league no matter how "pitching friendly" is 21.

I assume you are talking about me.

Cueto has put together two outstanding months. Like Bailey, Cueto has great stuff and unlike Bailey, Cueto also consistently produces. That's what separates the two: consistency. If I had to choose between the two right now for who I would want to keep, I would choose Cueto. I like Homer Bailey, and I think he has a chance to be a great pitcher, right now he just isn't consistently dominating like a guy with his talent should be.

Aronchis
05-31-2006, 03:11 PM
I assume you are talking about me.

Cueto has put together two outstanding months. Like Bailey, Cueto has great stuff and unlike Bailey, Cueto also consistently produces. That's what separates the two: consistency. If I had to choose between the two right now for who I would want to keep, I would choose Cueto. I like Homer Bailey, and I think he has a chance to be a great pitcher, right now he just isn't consistently dominating like a guy with his talent should be.

OBM, Cueto is 20 in low A. Bailey is 20 in high A. The spectre of Bailey being a "slow developer" was there during his rookie time in 2004. Whatever it is, the lightbulb hasn't gone on yet, though it has flickered on during some starts(or during a muddled start even).

Switch Cueto and Bailey around, I bet their results also switch as well.

OnBaseMachine
05-31-2006, 03:32 PM
OBM, Cueto is 20 in low A. Bailey is 20 in high A. The spectre of Bailey being a "slow developer" was there during his rookie time in 2004. Whatever it is, the lightbulb hasn't gone on yet, though it has flickered on during some starts(or during a muddled start even).

Switch Cueto and Bailey around, I bet their results also switch as well.

Cueto is pitching in a more hitter friendly league, IIRC. I bet Cueto could produce at the same, if not higher, leven than Bailey currently is in Sarasota.

Aronchis
05-31-2006, 03:35 PM
Cueto is pitching in a more hitter friendly league, IIRC. I bet Cueto could produce at the same, if not higher, leven than Bailey currently is in Sarasota.

hitter friendly, pitching friendly. I have heard it to often, I bet Cueto doesn't. When you move up a level, you move up a level. It is as simple as that. Move Bailey down to low A his proper age level, his ERA would drop below 3 after 2-3 starts.

dougdirt
05-31-2006, 04:07 PM
Cueto pitches in a more hitter friendly league, but Bailey pitches in a more hitter friendly home park compared to the rest of his league. The park factor of Dayton is 1060 (league factor of 975), the park factor of Sarasotas park is 1040 (league factor of 896). While it may be more hitter friendly in the MWL, there are better hitters in the FSL.

traderumor
05-31-2006, 04:27 PM
Regardless of the explanation used, Homer Bailey is becoming Exhibit A as to why a pitching starved, developmentally challenged organization had no business taking a raw 18 year-old HS pitcher as a high number 1 in the draft three years ago.

He may be all that his supporters think he will be, but it does not change the fact that type of project was not what this team needed to take on at the time. Besides the money, they just did not have the time to wait for him to develop.

Because I love analogies, picking Bailey was like buying the ingredients to make a slow roasted yankee pot roast, paying top dollar for a good cut of meat, baby carrots, celery hearts, idaho bakers, putting it all in a slow cooker and letting that baby cook for hours. Man, does that smell good. Look at that broth. Yummy. Did I mention the dinner guests were coming over in half an hour?

Daggone it, should have just bought some charcoal and some big, fat steaks and thrown them on the barby. They will be very good eating, maybe not quite like a slow roasted slab of beef, but only require a few mintues to cook, and will feed hungry folks now, when they are hungry, instead of making them wait for hours.

An added twist is that the cut of meat wasn't really as good as it was presented in the store and they cannot even eat it. They gave it to the neighbors, where the husband is a chef and an expert at making something out of nothing.

Now, everyone's still hungry and needs to eat, but it wasn't ready when they were there and when it was ready, it wasn't even any good. I guess they're stuck going to McDonald's for a quarter pounder that has been under a heat lamp for half an hour. And boy, have we been forced to eat a lot of those over the last three years.

tbball10
06-01-2006, 12:20 AM
Regardless of the explanation used, Homer Bailey is becoming Exhibit A as to why a pitching starved, developmentally challenged organization had no business taking a raw 18 year-old HS pitcher as a high number 1 in the draft three years ago.

He may be all that his supporters think he will be, but it does not change the fact that type of project was not what this team needed to take on at the time. Besides the money, they just did not have the time to wait for him to develop.

Because I love analogies, picking Bailey was like buying the ingredients to make a slow roasted yankee pot roast, paying top dollar for a good cut of meat, baby carrots, celery hearts, idaho bakers, putting it all in a slow cooker and letting that baby cook for hours. Man, does that smell good. Look at that broth. Yummy. Did I mention the dinner guests were coming over in half an hour?

Daggone it, should have just bought some charcoal and some big, fat steaks and thrown them on the barby. They will be very good eating, maybe not quite like a slow roasted slab of beef, but only require a few mintues to cook, and will feed hungry folks now, when they are hungry, instead of making them wait for hours.

An added twist is that the cut of meat wasn't really as good as it was presented in the store and they cannot even eat it. They gave it to the neighbors, where the husband is a chef and an expert at making something out of nothing.

Now, everyone's still hungry and needs to eat, but it wasn't ready when they were there and when it was ready, it wasn't even any good. I guess they're stuck going to McDonald's for a quarter pounder that has been under a heat lamp for half an hour. And boy, have we been forced to eat a lot of those over the last three years.

who do you think the reds should have picked instead of bailey?

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 12:26 AM
tbball10, looking back its a bit easier to choose who you would have picked....I like the Bailey pick though myself.

tbball10
06-01-2006, 12:45 AM
Me too, and I still love the pick, because he will be a dominant pitcher in the majors. i was just wondering who traderumor would have selected in the draft besides Bailey. The top 4 college pitchers were already off the board, and Bailey has outperformed 2 of them (Humber and Niemann). Tell me if you disagree, but the only pitchers from the 1st round of that draft that have clearly pitched better than Homer are Verlander and Sowers who were picked ahead of him, and also, Jared Weaver and Phillip Hughes. their are others who are close to Homer in stats, but don't compare in potential. He's only 20, and once he harnesses his stuff, he is going to be great.

dougdirt
06-01-2006, 01:58 AM
I dunno, lets look at the college arms taken in the 2004 first round.

Justin Verlander speaks for himself. He was gone.
Phillip Humber has not pitched this year, and has only made it 1 level ahead of where Bailey is despite being 3 years older than Bailey. Numbers arent impressive.
Jeff Niemann has pitched all of 30 minor league innings and has yet to pitch this year.
Jeremy Sowers....well we all know that story. He was gone also.
Everyone after this was available at the time the Reds drafted now.
Wade Townsend had TJ surgery in the offseason I believe....man that Rice Trio turned out well.
Thomas Diamond is currently in AA at the age of 23. He has a 3.13 ERA and a wHIP of 1.39. He has a k/bb ratio of 60/32 and a bb/9 of 6.29/9. His k/9 is 11.73.
Jared Weaver, his numbers are quite good. He recently made his Major League Debut. Last year in a split between A+ and AA he had a 3.82 and 3.98 as a 22 year old. This year in AAA he had a 2.05 ERA before his call up.
Bill Bray is a reliever, so we wont go into that much.
David Purcey is 24 and in AAA with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP.
Chris Lambert is 23 and in AA with a 5.11 ERA.
Glen Perkins is 23 in AA with a 3.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 3.31 bb/9, 10.17 k/9.
Taylor Tankersley is a reliever.
Matt Campbell struggled last year in the MWL as a 22 year old with an ERA of 4.66 and a WHIP of 1.74. He has yet to pitch this year due to arm troubles.
JP Howell started 15 games for the Royals in 2005, he had an ERA of 6.19. He is currently in AAA with an ERA of 5.67.
Zach Jackson is 23 and in AAA with an ERA of 3.00, WHIP of 1.33, bb/9 is 3.63, k/9 is 6.16.
Justin Orenduff is 23 and in AA with an ERA of 3.40, WHIP of 1.17, bb/9 is 3.40 and k/9 is 9.65.
Tyler Lumsden is 23 and in AA with an ERA of 3.27, WHIP of 1.26, bb/9 is 3.13 and k/9 is 6.68.
Matt Fox struggled badly in rookie ball in 2005 and has yet to pitch in 2006 due to numerous injuries.
Huston Street is a reliever....very good one too.
Jeff Marquez was the last player of the first round. He is 21 and is playing in the FSL. His ERA is 4.86, WHIP is 1.60, walk and strikeout numbers arent anything to write home about either.

With all of that typed up and time wasted on my behalf, does Homer Bailey really look like he was a wasted pick...heck I might even argue that between Gio Gonzelez, Bailey, Rogers, Hughes and Elbert have all outperformed their college counterparts on a larger scale so far from the 2004 first round...

tbball10
06-01-2006, 11:02 AM
i agree. some of these guys are competing at higher levels than bailey, but are also alot older, and it's not like many of them are blowing away their competition.

traderumor
06-01-2006, 01:54 PM
Me too, and I still love the pick, because he will be a dominant pitcher in the majors. i was just wondering who traderumor would have selected in the draft besides Bailey. The top 4 college pitchers were already off the board, and Bailey has outperformed 2 of them (Humber and Niemann). Tell me if you disagree, but the only pitchers from the 1st round of that draft that have clearly pitched better than Homer are Verlander and Sowers who were picked ahead of him, and also, Jared Weaver and Phillip Hughes. their are others who are close to Homer in stats, but don't compare in potential. He's only 20, and once he harnesses his stuff, he is going to be great.I don't play the "who would you have picked" game, and it isn't really relevant here, anyhow. The disagreement with the pick is in principal and has little to do with the merits of the individual, so trying to determine who would have been a better pick would have been the highest ranked college starting pitcher on the board. Fill in a name if it matters.

See, draft picks are going to have higher success rates when the principals underlying the picks are solid. The choice of a HS power pitcher was flawed from the start and revealed a flawed draft philosophy for 1st rd. picks, so it really doesn't matter what the individuals have done subsequently in viewing picks as success/failure. I am curious to see what Krivsky's 1st draft looks like in philosophy, although in honesty, I'm not sure it will be apparent from the initial one, but may take a few more to glean any particular axioms in operation.

tbball10
06-01-2006, 03:52 PM
I don't play the "who would you have picked" game, and it isn't really relevant here, anyhow. The disagreement with the pick is in principal and has little to do with the merits of the individual, so trying to determine who would have been a better pick would have been the highest ranked college starting pitcher on the board. Fill in a name if it matters.

See, draft picks are going to have higher success rates when the principals underlying the picks are solid. The choice of a HS power pitcher was flawed from the start and revealed a flawed draft philosophy for 1st rd. picks, so it really doesn't matter what the individuals have done subsequently in viewing picks as success/failure. I am curious to see what Krivsky's 1st draft looks like in philosophy, although in honesty, I'm not sure it will be apparent from the initial one, but may take a few more to glean any particular axioms in operation.

my guess is that would have been wade townsend who was picked right after bailey. i don't think he's even pitched as a professional, although i could be wrong, but i have not found any stats.

lollipopcurve
06-01-2006, 04:20 PM
it really doesn't matter what the individuals have done subsequently in viewing picks as success/failure

Sorry, but this is where I think the draft-day ideologies lose all touch with reality.

From my perspective, the ONLY way to say that a pick has been a success or a failure is by citing that player's subsequent performance. And it takes several years of performance before you can make a conclusive judgment.

And when it comes to categorizing players by age/position, the best study I've seen (Baseball Prospectus) showed results indicating that the college hitters are clearly the safest picks, while college pitchers and HS pitchers showed about the same success rate. HS position players were shown to be the riskiest picks. I believe they were looking at the top rounds only. It's a several-part study with Rany Janerzyli (sp?) as the lead guy. If I had more time, I'd post some of the findings.