PDA

View Full Version : Numbers show how Jr. Has slipped, and why Narron is making a mistake



Edskin
06-01-2006, 12:04 PM
Juniorís injuries/games missed makes it difficult to compare total production numbers to his counterparts in the NL that bat third in the line-up, but a quick glance at OBP gives a real hint as to how far Griffey has slipped and how mis-used he is by Narron.

I still want Junior in our line-up, and his sweet swing still makes him a long ball threat, especially if weíre down by multiple runs late in a game. However, he simply isnít a productive 3 hole hitter anymore. Not even close. IMO, he is hitting third based SOLEY on reputation and nothing more.

Check out the on base percentage of the other typical NL #3 hitters (I excluded the Giants because they have used almost everyone in that spot).

Albert Pools .449
Derek Lee .448
Miguel Cabrera .444
Nomar Garcia Para .421
Sean Casey .417
Chipper Jones .409
Todd Helton .404
Brian Giles .399
Carlos Beltran .389
Lance Berkman .377
Aaron Rowand .351
Chad Tracy .350
Alfonso Soriano .347
Geoff Jenkins .326
Ken Griffey Jr. .300

Itís not even CLOSE. Junior just isnít getting on base, he isnít producing runs like he used to and he is now arguably one of the poorest 3 hole hitters in MLB. Not only should Junior move from CF, but itís also time to drop him in the order.

westofyou
06-01-2006, 12:07 PM
The Reds are 13th in slot 3 by OPS, but that is slugging heavy.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?statType=batting&group=9&seasonType=2&type=type1&sort=OPS&split=111&season=2006

vaticanplum
06-01-2006, 12:10 PM
I'm about to ask a question that just cuts to the heart of ego, I think, but why is the #3 spot -- and centerfield, for that matter -- such a "prize"? Griffey is a great hitter in many ways. If he happens to do that hitting in, say, the #5 spot where his hitting will be more beneficial for everyone, is anyone really going to think less of him? If he makes a great catch in left field or at first, is anyone going to view it as a less worthy catch because of where he made it? This is a baseball team, not an individual race. This is kind of the stuff they teach you in nursery school.

Edskin
06-01-2006, 12:16 PM
vatican--

The goal is to give the TEAM the best chance to win over a 162 game season. There's a reason Albert Pujols hits third for the Cards and why Derek Lee won an MVP hitting third for the Cubs. Over the course of a very long season, that slot in the line-up comes up more often, w/ more run-scoring opportunities than spots lower in the order. A tough-out in the #3 hole also makes your clean-up hitter more dangerous. We might see an increase in Dunn's production if Junior got on base more frequently in front of him.

I certainly don't mean to "trash" Junior-- I want him out there. But IMO, our overall line-up, and therefore the chances for team success would be increased if Junior was moved down in the order.

vaticanplum
06-01-2006, 12:21 PM
vatican--

The goal is to give the TEAM the best chance to win over a 162 game season. There's a reason Albert Pujols hits third for the Cards and why Derek Lee won an MVP hitting third for the Cubs. Over the course of a very long season, that slot in the line-up comes up more often, w/ more run-scoring opportunities than spots lower in the order. A tough-out in the #3 hole also makes your clean-up hitter more dangerous. We might see an increase in Dunn's production if Junior got on base more frequently in front of him.

I certainly don't mean to "trash" Junior-- I want him out there. But IMO, our overall line-up, and therefore the chances for team success would be increased if Junior was moved down in the order.

Oh no, I totally agree with you. That's exactly my point -- if he's more beneficial for the team in the 5 spot (or out of centerfield), I really don't see what the big deal is to move him. People view the #3 spot as some sort of golden trophy, when the fact is there are no golden trophies in baseball until October. I don't know why people would view moving him as a demotion.

redsandrails
06-01-2006, 12:33 PM
I don't think Junior has played enough for us to make that determination. I mean I really couldn't see him finishing with much less than a .350 OBP and .500 SLG. He has a ridiculous amount of RBI's though for his playing time and for his other stats. He is hitting a lot less doubles but I mean considering he missed about 80 at bats he can still rebound. Too early to tell.... he's not the player he once was but I think he's still a .275, 35, 120 kinda guy maybe. I mean if he starts the rest of the season he's pacing almost 150 RBI's. I assume his average with increase, power stay the same and RBI's decrease. Having said that... he would have even MORE RBI's a little lower in the order. So that would probably be the best thing... either 4th or 5th.

Crash Davis
06-01-2006, 12:33 PM
Not only that, but it's also like having a catcher running the bases. He's either very leery of getting hurt, or he's just not interested in running the bases like a normal player.

Having a station-to-station runner in the 3rd hole hurts a bit too.

RedsBaron
06-01-2006, 01:39 PM
The sample is too small-only 110 or so official at bats. I would not be at all surprised to see Junior's OBP be thirty to fifty points higher in another month or two. Whether Junior hits third or fifth in the lineup also would have a very limited effect on the number of runs the Reds score. Finally, some sabermetric studies indicate that a team's best hitter should bat second or fourth, not third.

westofyou
06-01-2006, 01:46 PM
The sample is too small-only 110 or so official at bats.

125 august and september ab's and only 9 walks in 2005.

(hidden by the man's hitting .355)

Chip R
06-01-2006, 02:57 PM
He has been receptive in the past to batting 4th and perhaps 5th. Much more receptive than he has been to moving to another position. Of course that isn't saying much.

RedsMan3203
06-01-2006, 03:36 PM
Snice coming off the DL JR has hit 5 home runs, 21 RBI and scored 8 runs.

He has 20 hits in 79 ABs, drawing 3 walks and Striking Out 16 times.

I think JR is turning it on... and he will move up in that ranking by the end of June to Mid July.

VR
06-01-2006, 03:51 PM
His rbi/ab totals have been great, but he has lost all patience to take a walk this year.

Since he's been a Red, his walk rates have been:

2000 - 6.42 (ab/bb)
2001 - 9.27
2002 - 8.03
2003 - 7.14
2004 - 7.81
2005 - 8.24
2006 - 16.71

I think his bat is still very dangerous, but I think a move to #4 makes sense, especially if Dunn's sudden memory of how to hit to all fields has returned, making him the easy choice for #3.

KronoRed
06-01-2006, 05:19 PM
I'd flip flop him and Dunn 3/4 if he's not going to be walking..slugger with walks is better then slugger with no walks.

And JR is my fav player of all time so save your "Everyone hates JR" crap for somebody else :D

Reds1
06-01-2006, 05:44 PM
hmmm. I think missing the 3+ weeks makes it a small sample. I guess I'll have to think about this more, but I see Griffey with 28 RBIs only 4 RBIs behind the Reds leader and think with him missing all those games that's pretty darn good. Like last night. Not just a HR, but a key single up the middle where Dunn has struggled mightily in those situations. I like it the way it is. for me it doesn't matter though. I just want Griffey up with guys on base so maybe putting Dunn in front would be a good thing, but I'd rather have Griffey up with RISP before Dunn so I guess that means Griff in the 2 hole.

schroomytunes
06-01-2006, 06:34 PM
here is my ideal lineup:

1)Phillips-2b
2)Lopez-ss
3)Dunn-lf
4)Griffey-cf
5)Kearns-rf
6)Hatteberg-1b
7)EE-3b
8)Larue/Ross/Valentin-c

redsandrails
06-01-2006, 06:43 PM
Now that I think about, Junior started last year in his first 82 at bats with a like .682 OPS so nothing to worry about. He always starts out cold. While he may be transforming into a less patient hitter his average will likely go up and it won't be so bad. I bet he'll finish with a OBP above .350.

Tony Cloninger
06-01-2006, 07:03 PM
He may be able to turn it back on....or he may have already reached a point where it is going to be in short spurts, here and there. That, plus the fact he gets hurt and then has to come back and start it up all over again. That does not help maintain his rythem either.

Nugget
06-01-2006, 08:27 PM
Once again this comes down to the use of the beloved OPS. Its a statistical measurement that favours sluggers who walk. The reason why you have your best "batter" hitting third in a lineup is that traditionally your 1st and 2nd players should be those who get on base so number 3 has the chance to drive them ni. No.4 is your big power hitter, mostly based on the fact its insurance that your no.3 gets pitches to hit.

That being said Junior's job at no.3 is not to have a high OBP, it may be an indication of he personally is batting well, but it is not an indication that he is doing his job at no.3. His job is to ensure that he is able to drive in batters who get on base before him. This may or may not require a walk, a double, a single or a HR. For instance, yesterday with Freel on third and 1st and 2nd open Junior was no way going to take a walk, unless the Cubs pitched around him. His job was to drive Freel in from third, a walk would not cut it. A better measurement of whether Junior is doing his job at third is whether or not he is driving in runners ahead of him.

pedro
06-01-2006, 08:33 PM
Nugget, that makes sense until you consider the fact that over half of KG's AB's have come when no one is on base (this is typical) and during those ab's this year he has put up a line of .228/.267/.368/.635. That's created a lot of outs and spare few RBI opportunities for the players behind him IMO.

Nugget
06-01-2006, 08:44 PM
Statistically that should improve as if your taking a small sample size with all his AB's then if your taking half his AB's your getting an even smaller sample size.

RedsMan3203
06-01-2006, 09:10 PM
On this team, and the way things go about around here... JR is the ideal 4 hole hitter..... But who do you put in the 3 hole?

Dunn?
Kearns?
Aurrila?
Edwin?

KronoRed
06-01-2006, 09:10 PM
Dunn, he gets on base.

pedro
06-01-2006, 09:10 PM
Statistically that should improve as if your taking a small sample size with all his AB's then if your taking half his AB's your getting an even smaller sample size.

Indeed. But while that is true it doesn't diminish the fact that half a players AB's come with no one on base so claiming that a #3 hitter shouldn't require a relatively decent OBP is flawed logic IMO.

RedsMan3203
06-01-2006, 09:19 PM
Dunn, he gets on base.


Maybe Dunn should bat 1st then. :p:

KronoRed
06-01-2006, 09:21 PM
Maybe Dunn should bat 1st then. :p:
Bob Boone? :devil:

westofyou
06-01-2006, 09:25 PM
Indeed. But while that is true it doesn't diminish the fact that half a players AB's come with no one on base so claiming that a #3 hitter shouldn't require a relatively decent OBP is flawed logic IMO.
Why argue, it's "beloved OPS" that blinds your logic... the fact is his job is to drive em in (sic) nothing else and thinking otherwise just is whacky.

westofyou
06-01-2006, 09:34 PM
FYI last year in the NL the average for 3rd slot hitters was as thus

.284/.371/.482

No slot walked more no slot had a better OPS no slot scored more runs.

Two others drove in more runs.


Bat Order G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF XI ROE GDP SB CS AVG OBP SLG
1st 2912 10930 1584 3020 541 114 184 955 931 31 1487 128 109 60 2 141 167 436 189 .276 .339 .397
2nd 3163 10602 1535 2857 566 67 231 1063 874 12 1710 134 186 58 0 143 223 218 73 .269 .331 .401
3rd 3004 10042 1599 2849 642 38 426 1508 1319 149 1748 125 20 87 2 122 266 157 41 .284 .371 .482
4th 3136 9861 1517 2724 595 38 479 1692 1250 136 1954 114 6 103 0 105 231 111 42 .276 .361 .490
5th 3186 9877 1382 2677 547 41 403 1537 994 99 1994 97 19 99 1 94 243 105 56 .271 .340 .457
6th 3194 9738 1208 2691 597 52 328 1379 831 80 1863 95 44 76 0 92 263 100 59 .276 .337 .449
7th 3393 9411 1045 2416 497 42 231 1119 819 60 1762 100 78 72 1 119 258 112 44 .257 .321 .392
8th 3399 9048 982 2232 488 39 212 1074 848 184 1721 128 81 65 1 121 263 68 39 .247 .318 .380
9th 11189 8611 683 1592 281 37 86 655 530 17 2641 59 608 49 1 109 139 42 17 .185 .236 .256

Edskin
06-01-2006, 10:10 PM
Another point I wanted to make in this thread is that I think people compare players by "position" WAY too much when comparing offensive numbers. IMO, you should compare CF'ers to CF'ers ONLY when talking about defense. Offensively, you should compare players by what slot they hit inthe order because I think that gives a better indication of what they are asked to do for their team.

penantboundreds
06-01-2006, 11:29 PM
My lineup....

freel
phillips
lopez
griffey
dunn
kearns
EdE
Catcher (preferably Ross who i think helps the pitchers tremendously -- nother dog for another day)

this lineup of course has dunn at first (not griffey) and freel in left

pedro
06-02-2006, 12:13 AM
freel
lopez
dunn
griffey
kearns
EE
Phillips
Larue

RedsMan3203
06-02-2006, 12:23 AM
You'll crazy for having Freel in your every day line up... And you know its true... You saw how he played the last 2 weeks when JR was gone... Horrible...

SandyD
06-02-2006, 12:24 AM
woy, where do those numbers come from? The numbers in the "games" column seem kind of odd.

Edit: I'm guessing fewer "in game" line-up changes at those positions.

westofyou
06-02-2006, 12:41 AM
woy, where do those numbers come from? The numbers in the "games" column seem kind of odd.

Edit: I'm guessing fewer "in game" line-up changes at those positions.
Baseball reference (and I think you're right)

reds44
06-02-2006, 12:41 AM
Yankees placed outfielder Gary Sheffield on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to Tuesday, with a torn ligament and dislocated tendon in his left wrist.
The dislocated tendon shouldn't take as much time as the ligament, but it's not going to help his recovery any. While the Yankees have yet to comment, it seems very possible that Sheffield will miss the bulk of the remainder of the season. Jun. 1 - 7:09 pm



You thinking what I'm thinking?

Topcat
06-02-2006, 03:57 AM
You thinking what I'm thinking?


A big if and I mean a huge if would be, would griffey go to the Yanks? If he agreed to the deal, i would seriously just ask for prospects back and then use the cash saved for adding pitching!:beerme:

Edskin
06-06-2006, 07:39 AM
Like I was saying in the beginning of this thread, only a MORON would think Junior should be moved down in the order :)

Jpup
06-06-2006, 07:59 AM
freel cf
lopez ss
dunn 1b
kearns rf
jr. lf
EdE 3b
Phillips 2b
Larue C

REDREAD
06-06-2006, 09:54 AM
Maybe Jr feels like he has to be more aggressive at the plate to drive in runs? Looks like Jr is doing a good job driving in runs. Sometimes it is more important to get the run in than to try to get the walk for the next guy. I know that that is against the prevailing wisdom, but when you've got someone like Hattenberg or Aurillia on deck, I'd rather have Jr try to drive in the run. That was one thing Bret Boone did well (when he was good here). Boone would often hit #7 or #8. His OBP wasn't that great (IIRC), but he'd manage to drive in 80 runs or so from the bottom of the order. I realize Jr's position is a little bit different, but the ultimate goal of the game is to drive in runs. Again, I'm not saying RBIs is the king of all stats, but I'm not going to knock Jr for walking less this year. Jr is doing great this year.. Perhaps if Jr didn't have so many RBI opportunities, he'd be looking for the walk more.

I do agree that Jr should hit 4th and Dunn hit 2nd or 3rd..

RedsManRick
06-06-2006, 09:58 AM
An added advantage of Dunn in the 3 hole is that it's pretty hard to hit in to a double play when you either strikeout or hit fly balls...

RedsBaron
06-06-2006, 02:38 PM
Junior did okay last night batting third in the order. His OBP is now up to .329, which still isn't great, but he has a .287 average, a .566 S.Pct. and a .894 OPS.

westofyou
06-06-2006, 02:44 PM
Junior did okay last night batting third in the order. His OBP is now up to .329, which still isn't great, but he has a .287 average, a .566 S.Pct. and a .894 OPS.
Jr's hacking, he must be seeing the ball very well, he wasn't waiting long I think he hit 3 first pitches last night.

KronoRed
06-06-2006, 05:19 PM
An added advantage of Dunn in the 3 hole is that it's pretty hard to hit in to a double play when you either strikeout or hit fly balls...
Strike outs rock ;)

I'd love to see Dunn in front of JR, he'd get on base and set up a nice run of hitters JR/Kearns/EE/Phillips

RedsBaron
06-07-2006, 09:28 AM
Junior did okay last night batting third in the order. His OBP is now up to .329, which still isn't great, but he has a .287 average, a .566 S.Pct. and a .894 OPS.
Junior's OBP is now .352, with a .573 S. Pct., .924 OPS and a .298 ave. Numbers show he still has something left in the tank.

Roy Tucker
06-07-2006, 09:36 AM
Maybe its my imagination, but Junior appears to be running freer and more easily (and with more abandon) then what I've seen in the past 2-3 years.

I don't know if his speed is any better, but he doesn't have that look anymore of someone running with broken glass embedded in their knees. And actually, it started around when there was all the hoo-ha about him no longer capable of CF.

All IMHO.

redsfan4445
06-07-2006, 09:46 AM
I just know JR proves HE can hit with men on base in the #3 spot, where MR Softball world Adam Dunn cant do it or hardly ever does it! makes me wonder what people would complain on this site about if JR wasnt here anymore and who would be the next bashed player... enough of the bashing.. enjoy our team.. you cant win everygame and go 162-0, you cant expect JR to hit a 3 run homer EVERY at bat! and its like people just want to find something to nick pick about instead of enjoying this team.. thank GOD redszone wasnt up in 1990.. heck that team couldnt do anything right either! im sure of it... i just had to get that off my chest

membengal
06-07-2006, 09:49 AM
I don't really understand the vitriol in the above post. That is the kind of thing which has messed up this site at times. No one is bashing anyone. There is an ongoing discussion of what we all see unfolding. Jr.'s numbers are reverting, at this point, to career norms. Good. People that noted the dip were not bashing, they were calling attention to a worrisome trend.

And, again, what does any of that have to do with Adam Dunn? Why was his name invoked? Why do that?

GAC
06-07-2006, 10:17 AM
Junior's OBP is now .352, with a .573 S. Pct., .924 OPS and a .298 ave. Numbers show he still has something left in the tank.

He credits his critics who motivate him. So I guess they can all take credit now. It's the Circle of Life. ;)

smith288
06-07-2006, 10:40 AM
He credits his critics who motivate him. So I guess they can all take credit now. It's the Circle of Life. ;)
In that case....

"GRIFFEY YOU SUCK!! OLD MAN WHO CAN'T PLAY OUTFIELD!!!!!"

(this is of course not my thoughts but if criticism motivates him, criticism is what he shall receive.)

westofyou
06-07-2006, 10:48 AM
enough of the bashing.. enjoy our team.. Maybe you should follow your own advice?

redsfan4445
06-07-2006, 03:01 PM
im going to enjoy the REDS and stay off this site.. just like WEST OF YOU always has a smart comment on anything i say! Im going to do like the players.. stay away from the negative nay-sayers that like to put the team or players down.. Thank God this isnt the Pirates!.. they dont show any improivement.. The REDS do and some people on this site STILL arent happy.. got to find a negative in everything it seems...Griffey, Kearns, etc do welll All i see is TRADE them.. why???????? how the heck you WIN trading your offense away??? Didnt help having ZERO Offense with Mario Soto here in the 80's! I never got so worked up in my life till the REDS do well.. its like some on here would rather have them in last place so they could bash attack and blame Griffey!! enough is enough.. im done..

well SAVAFAN.. your the best.. i will miss your comments.. its people that love to cause trouble i wont miss.:bang:

RedsMan3203
06-07-2006, 03:39 PM
On base 5 times last night... i'm sure his OB% is on the rise now.... ;)

Cyclone792
07-18-2006, 11:18 PM
Update on July 18th, 2006 ... cause this sort of worked last time ...


Year PA/BB

2002 8.29
2003 7.44
2004 7.91
2005 10.28
2006 15.05

That's a bad trend that actually started last season with his walk rate. This season it's just beyond bad.

Meanwhile, Griffey's OBP has dipped all the way to .301.

Marc D
07-18-2006, 11:49 PM
Meanwhile, Griffey's OBP has dipped all the way to .301.

Which means he does a worse job of not making an out than such offensive luminaries as Castro, Clayton and LaRue.

This team overpays on a trade to win now. This team sits EE in favor of RA to supposedly win now. This same team then won't put JR in RF or move him out of the #3 hole which both clearly would give us a better chance to win now.

I just don't get it.

flyer85
07-19-2006, 12:25 AM
Which means he does a worse job of not making an out than such offensive luminaries as Castro, Clayton and LaRue.

This team overpays on a trade to win now. This team sits EE in favor of RA to supposedly win now. This same team then won't put JR in RF or move him out of the #3 hole which both clearly would give us a better chance to win now.

I just don't get it.subjective analysis, sCRAPPY counts

Nugget
07-19-2006, 12:29 AM
I'm still wondering if EE has gotten over the ankle problem. A lot of guys who have had the problem have taken a lot of time to get over it. Wise for one.

TOBTTReds
07-19-2006, 01:07 AM
I was at the game Sunday, and EdE seemed great. Scored from 2nd on Richie's single and looked good. Also made a great diving catch. I think he is fine.

Edskin
07-19-2006, 07:13 AM
Junior continues to get a free pass from most people on this board. He s having a horrid year at the plate. It goes beyond a slump at this point-- well into July with an OBP of .300 is just laughable for a #3 hitter. Rich gets ripped daily on this board, but even he'd CLEARLY be a better option in the 3 hole than Junior.

By continuing to sit EE and continuing to bat Junior third because "Junior is Junior" Narron is losing my respect more and more.

westofyou
07-19-2006, 11:14 AM
Junior continues to get a free pass from most people on this board. He s having a horrid year at the plate. It goes beyond a slump at this point-- well into July with an OBP of .300 is just laughable for a #3 hitter. Rich gets ripped daily on this board, but even he'd CLEARLY be a better option in the 3 hole than Junior.

By continuing to sit EE and continuing to bat Junior third because "Junior is Junior" Narron is losing my respect more and more.


Boy is he pressing too, .186/.217/.395/.613 on first pitch swings (most on the team)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/Statistics/Team/playerstats?team=cin&seasonYear=2006&split=64&seasonType=2&type=reg&pagetype=batting

1 game this season with multiple walks, 3 walks since 6-27

flyer85
07-19-2006, 12:24 PM
1 game this season with multiple walks, 3 walks since 6-27that lack of walks are the symptom, the problem is that he is getting himself out early in the count by chasing a lot of pitcher's pitches.

Puffy
07-19-2006, 12:36 PM
I think, if I were the Reds, I would move Dunn down into the cleanup spot ASAP (while he is seeing the ball so well) to see if this helps Junior and the team out. It seems to me that Junior feels he is not going to get anything to hit, so first decent pitch he sees he is hacking. I think for the first time in his life he is the one who needs the protection.

I also think his father needs to call him up and tell him, "Junior man, you need to start looking at more pitches. You are getting very little to hit because of what is behind you and you are playing right into their hands by swinging at crap and grounding to the right side time after time. Patience, Patience, Patience"

westofyou
07-19-2006, 12:38 PM
that lack of walks are the symptom, the problem is that he is getting himself out early in the count by chasing a lot of pitcher's pitches.
For his career he's been an awesome first picth and hitters count player, this year his 1st pitch approach has been in the toilet, it's bleeding through to his overall numbers now.

REDREAD
07-19-2006, 01:52 PM
His rbi/ab totals have been great, but he has lost all patience to take a walk this year.
.

I think Jr is feeling the pressure to drive in runs. That will only get worse now that Lopez and Kearns are gone.

I know RBIs are mocked here, but his RBI total to me justifies the loss in OBP. He's driving in runs. It's not necessarily bad to go for the RBI instead of trying to get a walk, particularly if a weaker hitter is behind you.
He's been a vital cog in the offense this year.

CrackerJack
07-19-2006, 03:46 PM
He's been a vital cog in the offense this year.

They need his bat now more than ever - and it's nowhere to be found, he's in quite a slump - like BP he's hacking at everything for some reason and has been.

KronoRed
07-19-2006, 05:06 PM
I wouldn't move Dunn behind JR, then Dunn will start pressing