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BCubb2003
06-03-2006, 10:06 PM
Is there anywhere you can find what percentages are for No. 1 picks to make it to the majors? First-round picks? The other rounds?

rdiersin
06-03-2006, 10:17 PM
BP did a study by Rany Jazayerli and he concluded that the number 1 overall draft pick had a 40% value great than the 2nd pick in the draft and the value of each subsequent pick declined by about 4 or 5% for the 1st 40 picks. After that each pick's value only decreases by about a percent.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5152

I don't remember if he mentioned in other articles in this series the success rate of the top overall pick.

jmcclain19
06-03-2006, 11:09 PM
I thought I remember Rob Neyer being on ESPN last year during Draft Day, and him saying the difference between the first pick in the 2nd round and the last pick in the 3rd round, as far as success stats go, showed zero difference over time. Don't know why I've kept that little fact nugget buried in my brain but I have.

rdiersin
06-03-2006, 11:52 PM
I thought I remember Rob Neyer being on ESPN last year during Draft Day, and him saying the difference between the first pick in the 2nd round and the last pick in the 3rd round, as far as success stats go, showed zero difference over time. Don't know why I've kept that little fact nugget buried in my brain but I have.

It might be just a difference of what they used to come up with what is a valuable major league player. I don't know. I think Rany used WARP, but I'm not positive. There was also something done by Callis last year wasn't there? I can't remember what exactly he concluded other than HS is not much different than college.

cincinnati chili
06-03-2006, 11:59 PM
Jim,

I did a lot of research on this about 5 years ago on the drafts from '90-'99. You have to be careful because the data is changing very quickly over time. For example, some of the data from below may not apply anymore, if teams are better about scouting high schoolers in the 21st century (which I believe they are)

I haven't read through all of Rany Z's stuff, but he's a sharp guy.

BCubb:
I didn't really concentrate so much on #1 pick v. #2 pick, but here's some general data for the first rounds for '90-'96:

- Here are the "bust" percentages. A bust might have made it to the majors, but made minimal positive contribution to their clubs before being released or hitting free agency
High School pitchers - 67.5%
College pitchers - 43.86%
College hitters - 40.48%
HS hitters - 40%

-Clubs spent about $3.25 million in bonus money on successful high school pitchers, and $39.6 million on less-than-successful high school pitchers (by less than successful, they may have made the majors, but made minimal positive contribution to their clubs before being released or hitting free agency)

- I took each players’ total best 3 seasons of WARP (wins above replacement) for all draftees in the first rounds:
-High school pitchers 2.51 added wins over 3 year period, on average
-College pitchers 4.7 added wins over 3 year period on average
-College hitters 9.44 added wins over 3 year period on average
-HS hitters 8.78 added wins over 3 year period on average

BCubb2003
06-04-2006, 12:38 AM
Thanks for the info. Are these numbers good enough to settle for, in terms of efficiency at finding major leaguers? I know "Moneyball" tried to deal with how to improve the performance of drafters. What organization has had the best success?