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View Full Version : History of Cincinnati 1st round draft follies



edabbs44
06-04-2006, 01:33 AM
Draft season is one of my favorite times of year. In honor of next week's draft, let's take a trip back in time to see how the Reds did with their first pick since 1992. Passed up players will only be players in the general vicinity of the Reds 1st pick.

1992: Chad Mottola is the pick, 5th overall. Some passed up were Derek Jeter (6th overall), Preston Wilson (9th), Shannon Stewart (19th) and Jason Kendall (23rd)

1993: Pat Watkins is the pick, 32nd overall. Some passed up were Scott Rolen (46th) and Jeff Suppan (49th).

1994: CJ Nitkowski is the pick, 9th overall. As a sidenote, I remember this pick very well since I played with CJ in high school. Some passed up were Nomar (12th), Paul Konerko (13th) and Varitek (14th).

1995: Brett Tomko at 54. Randy Winn went at 65, Dempster was 66th and Arroyo went 69th.

1996: John Oliver is the pick at 25. Reitsma went 34th, Marquis went 35 and Rollins went 46th.

1997: Brandon Larson at 14. Lance Berkman went 16th. How much does that hurt?

1998: Austin Kearns went 8th. Felipe Lopez went 9th, Jeff Weaver 14th, Lidge at 17 and Sabathia at 20.

1999: Ty Howington at 14. Jason Jennings went at 16 and Alexis Rios at 19.

2000: David Espinosa at 23. Aaron Heilman went at 31. Remember, this was the worst draft in recent memory.

2001: Jeremy Sowers at 20, did not sign. Bobby Crosby and Bonderman went back to back at 25-26 and David Wright at 38.

2002: Chris Gruler at 3. This one could be the worst. Just a few are Adam Loewen at 4, Prince Fielder at 7, Jeff Francis at 9, Hermida at 11 and Kazmir at 15. My Lord.

2003: Ryan Wagner at 14. Conor Jackson went 19th, Chad Cordero went 20th, Brandon Wood at 24 and Chad Billingsly at 24.

2004: Homer went 7th. Many of the other players haven't made an impact yet, but Drew and Weaver went later (signing issues) along with Billy Butler.

2005: Jay Bruce went 12th. Same as above and too early to make any judgements.

As you can see, the draft is an enormous crapshoot. But doesn't it seem like Cincy has shown an apparent ineptitude when it comes to drafting over the years? What does everyone think could be the issue? Is it shortcomings in the scouting department (partially due to Schott's cutbacks a few years back), just looking for the cheap players who will be easy signs or just pure dumb-luck? I didn't realize how bad it has been until I just compiled that list.

Here's to new beginnings in the Bob and Wayne era! Good luck in 2006! :beerme:

NewEraReds
06-04-2006, 01:39 AM
combination of 3 things. bad scouting, poor management on top(making final decision) and being cheap. and a little poor luck, that goes with everyone though, imo

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 11:55 AM
You could make a list of these with about every club. Brien Taylor anyone???

edabbs44
06-05-2006, 12:04 PM
You could make a list of these with about every club. Brien Taylor anyone???
I think Cincy has had one of the worst recent draft histories. The Yankees have been awful also. But Cincy is easily one of the worst.

traderumor
06-05-2006, 12:06 PM
I'm sure the research is out there, but it seems like if any pick for any team in the draft ought to be closest to a sure thing , considering the bonus money at stake, it ought to be that 1st round pick. I wonder what the Reds % of 1st round picks to make it to the majors is over some time frame is compared to other teams? Also, it seems the 1st round picks are based just as much on peer pressure (that person doesn't have "1st round talent") than it does on wisely spending bonus money. There seems to be some wisdom to perhaps overdrafting someone and perhaps adjusting the bonus accordingly (wasn't that the premise in the Moneyball draft?) than to draft some toolsy wonder or some HS whiz arm that throws 95. Who cares if the rest of the industry laughs at your picks if you get the most bang for your buck?

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:06 PM
The Reds in the 70's were putrid, drafting one 1st rounder who made MLB, Nick Esasky

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:07 PM
I'm sure the research is out there, but it seems like if any pick for any team in the draft ought to be closest to a sure thing , considering the bonus money at stake, it ought to be that 1st round pick. I wonder what the Reds % of 1st round picks to make it to the majors is over some time frame is compared to other teams? Also, it seems the 1st round picks are based just as much on peer pressure (that person doesn't have "1st round talent") than it does on wisely spending bonus money. There seems to be some wisdom to perhaps overdrafting someone and perhaps adjusting the bonus accordingly (wasn't that the premise in the Moneyball draft?) than to draft some toolsy wonder or some HS whiz arm that throws 95. Who cares if the rest of the industry laughs at your picks if you get the most bang for your buck?
From BP

Historically, the #1 overall pick has returned at least 40% more value than any other draft slot. After the first pick, the typical return on a draft pick falls 4-5% per slot until approximately the 40th pick, and then drops by a little over 1% per slot until pick #100.

savafan
06-05-2006, 12:25 PM
Have Castellini and Krivsky brought in new scouts, or is it still the same ones from the Lindner regime?

ochre
06-05-2006, 12:30 PM
Have Castellini and Krivsky brought in new scouts, or is it still the same ones from the Lindner regime?
They appear to have revamped the upper levels of the scouting heirarchy. Hopefully they are in the process of evaluating and keeping/replacing those they want/don't want. Not sure if that's 100% accurate though, as the news on this front isn't usually front page material.

edabbs44
06-05-2006, 12:50 PM
I'm sure the research is out there, but it seems like if any pick for any team in the draft ought to be closest to a sure thing , considering the bonus money at stake, it ought to be that 1st round pick. I wonder what the Reds % of 1st round picks to make it to the majors is over some time frame is compared to other teams? Also, it seems the 1st round picks are based just as much on peer pressure (that person doesn't have "1st round talent") than it does on wisely spending bonus money. There seems to be some wisdom to perhaps overdrafting someone and perhaps adjusting the bonus accordingly (wasn't that the premise in the Moneyball draft?) than to draft some toolsy wonder or some HS whiz arm that throws 95. Who cares if the rest of the industry laughs at your picks if you get the most bang for your buck?
Well, when you are talking about Tomko as being one of your most successful 1st round picks since 1992 (with Larson also in the discussion) then the recent history kind of makes you nauseous.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:03 PM
Well, when you are talking about Tomko as being one of your most successful 1st round picks since 1992 (with Larson also in the discussion) then the recent history kind of makes you nauseous.
Tomko was a second round pick.

The Reds tossed the 1st rounder for Damon Berryhill.

KronoRed
06-05-2006, 03:25 PM
Considering the Reds 1st round history, should they consider punting the pick? ;)

edabbs44
06-05-2006, 04:54 PM
Tomko was a second round pick.

The Reds tossed the 1st rounder for Damon Berryhill.
I stand corrected. I meant their 1st pick.

KoryMac5
06-05-2006, 05:34 PM
Oliver is probably the one to me that is most glaring. How can a scouting department not know that a kid can't pick up a ball at night. I know most High Schools play day games but some statistic should have tipped the Reds off.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 06:02 PM
Considering the Reds 1st round history, should they consider punting the pick? ;)

Here's a quick overview of the Reds 1st round choices, Barry Larkin is without a doubt the best first rounder in Reds history.

For position player the Reds drafted #1 have produced the following numbers in MLB

25,377 trips to the plate, 7158 hits and 2230 extra base hits. Barry Larkin is responsible for 32.6% of those ab's and 32% of the ebh's and 31% of those ab's, the other ten players who made it to the show own the rest.

Worst? take your pick, almost anyone who didn't make it or player who didn't sign would be a start

As for pitching the Reds peaked in the draft as far as arms are concerned in 1969 when they picked Don Gullett in slot number 14. This was after choosing Wayne Simpson and Gary Nolan. The 3 of them combined for 255-15 record and 3702 innings.

Since then the Reds have drafted 18 pitchers for their first pick, the combined total of their contribution to the pitching community is a record of 193-219 and 3449 innings pitched. At this juncture Brett Tomko is on the path to becoming the Reds draft choice to throw the most innings in the major leagues since the draft started.

That speaks volumes about Reds inability to get pitchers from the draft to the mound in Cincinnati.

During the Howsam years you would think that the Reds would have created some nice number one picks, only one player drafted number one in the 70's ever made it to the big leagues and that was Nick Esasky.

More here (http://www.baseballminutia.com/)