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View Full Version : Ok, some potential trades... which would you most like? - input appreciated!



Javy Pornstache
06-04-2006, 03:37 AM
At the risk of being sued by Krusty for gimmick infringement, as I understand he's a bit of a trade guru from my time browsing this board before becoming a member, I was just thinking of potential, fairly realistic trades that could happen. A lot of these have either been rumored, or otherwise suggested and seem reasonable for both teams involved. I had considered including one apiece with some bigger named players who have been rumored as POSSIBLY being shopped, but haven't really been linked anywhere specific.....namely, Griffey, Dunn and Lopez. I decided to omit those for now though. I guess I am just curious as to which one(s) seem to be the best of the bunch according to fellow Reds fans of ones that seem like they could happen in-season. And away we go:

1) C Javier Valentin to Washington for RHP Jon Rauch
This is obviously not a major one, but Rauch is a guy I personally have liked since his days as a White Sox, and he does well as a swingman/long man/sixth starter for the Nationals. We know they need another actual, legitimate catcher. Plus, you know, that whole Jim Bowden adores former Reds deal. (Though he may not have a connection with my boy, Javy... I don't recall.)

2) OF Austin Kearns to Colorado for RHP Jason Jennings
I've seen Jennings' name come up a few times, and with Colorado surprisingly hanging around, they won't deal him easily, but I do think Kearns would catch their fancy. Jennings is durable, pretty consistent, a hard sinkerball pitcher, and a great hitter to boot.

3) C Jason LaRue and OF Chris Denorfia to Colorado for LHP Ray King and 1B Ryan Shealy
Again, something else that's been mentioned from time to time but I am not sure if this combination has been exactly brought up. Colorado is in the market for catching and a center fielder, and seem to have the expendable parts in Shealy, blocked by Helton, and King, who's one of a few lefties in a pretty good bullpen.

4) UT Ryan Freel and LHP Kent Mercker to Atlanta for RHP Jorge Sosa and OF Ryan Langerhans
Atlanta has apparently expressed interest in Freel before, I would think as a left fielder and leadoff hitter. Mercker, while he hasn't been sparkling, has worked out for Atlanta twice before, and I think is one of those guys whose reputation sometimes shines above his actual production. Atlanta's bullpen is a shambles as well, and young, so even though ours isn't a model of a great pen, perhaps they'd be interested in Mercker. Sosa has a great fastball and seems to be either very on or very off, but I'd like to take a chance on his live arm for his versatility as a starter, setup man or potential closer. Langerhans is an alright hitter, great glove, and kinda got lost in the shuffle of being brought along at similar times as Jeff Francouer and Kelly Johnson, who are both regarded higher in Atlanta.

Do any of them look pretty good and/or realistic or are they all equally idiotic?! :D

jfleur87
06-04-2006, 04:32 AM
I liked the 4th seeing as those two players aren't crucial to this teams make up in my eyes, but I don't think I see the Braves wanting to make this deal. I say if we threw in a minor leaguer then it could be a possibility

Eric in IL
06-04-2006, 05:26 AM
I've actually also thought about a Valentin/Rauch or Majekski deal. I think it makes sense because the Nationals desperately need a backup catcher.

I'm not really crazy about the other deals. As long as the Reds are in the race, I don't think they can trade Kearns.

Guacarock
06-04-2006, 05:41 AM
I'd do deal No. 1, although recognizing it is an extremely high-risk trade in terms of producing any long-term residuals. Here are my thoughts:

We do have to trim down the three-headed catcher arrangement. Larue shouldn't go right now. His trade value is most definitely in the tank. And we don't want to ship David Ross, by any means. We need to see whether we've captured lightning in a bottle with him or if he's just a flash in the pan. If he's a flash in the pan, no sweat. We have Larue. His performance should improve and come closer to his career norms. He always is a late starter, so while he's put on a pretty putrid display of offense this past month, the career indicators suggest he'll get better. Valentin also could improve and duplicate his career year in 2005, but then again, he's looking more in 2006 like the back-up catcher he always was in prior years.

Now, on to Rauch. He's been a lights-out RH middle reliever for the Nationals so far in '06. He has a 2.03 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 31 IP. He's from Louisville. He's cheap, earning close to the major league minimum. He's also probably one of the few lights-out relievers we could acquire without sacrificing a player of far more strategic importance to us than Valentin. The reason? Rauch just returned in September of '05 from torn labrum surgery on his right shoulder. That's one of the most dreaded of injuries for pitchers. Few ever come back anywhere close to being halfway effective. It's definitely a CLS or Career Limiting Surgery.

Rauch could be fool's gold. The Nationals are riding him too hard to bump up his trade value. If we got him, he could possibly pitch for us a week or two, and then break down permanently. That's where the high risk comes into play. Assuming he becomes a Red, I would severely limit his pitch counts and appearances, only using him sporadically. But let's say he took Rick White's spot on the roster. We could use him half as often as White, inserting him in games that matter. We could use Yan for the balance of the games. The net result would be: Big improvement over White half the time, no serious drop in performance in the other half of the games where Yan is the replacement pitcher for White.

Rauch was originally thought of as a starter. I wouldn't push him in that direction, instead just plan to use him 60-80 innings a year and see where that goes for at least a season or two.

The other reason to do this deal:

McCracken hasn't exactly panned out, so we've actually been using Valentin more often as our left-handed PH. If Valentin is gone, we can bring up Olmedo, presumably for good. We have yanked Olmedo back and forth between Cincy and Louisville long enough. Time to either give him a slot or let him go. I think he can shore up our IF defense in late innings, and he's probably a better PH option than McCracken or Valentin. He has speed, and he seems to be connecting this year, not only at Louisville but also in his brief 9 AB callup with the Reds during Aurilia's DL stint.

So, of your four proposed deals, No. 1 works best for me. I'd also really like to snag Shealy from the Rockies. At the same time, I'm not so sure Larue could get it done, and I'm inclined to retain Denorfia in the event we decide to trade Kearns for a SP. In addition, putting Kearns and Ray King on the same roster could cause some definite clubhouse friction.

Jpup
06-04-2006, 06:18 AM
#1 is the only one that is a possibility. Why would you trade Kearns for Jennings? I don't want to trade away Denorfia or Larue unless I am getting a young arm in return. King doesn't qualify. The is no way that Atlanta would do that last deal. Mercker's trade value is virtually zero and Freel isn't going to land Sosa or Langerhans.

It's actually possible for a Reds GM to win a deal, these aren't positive scenarios IMO.

Newman4
06-04-2006, 10:38 AM
I can't see the other teams going for #1, 3 and 4. Although, #1 is the type of deal I'd be looking for. One of the catchers for pitching. I'm with Jpup on #2, why would we trade Kearns for Jennings?

I have an expanded deal for #1 though: Larue and Brandon Claussen to Washington for RHP Tony Armas Jr. and RHP Rauch

Krusty
06-04-2006, 11:12 AM
I like the Jennings acquistion but would rather trade Claussen instead of Kearns for Jennings. And here is why:

I don't think Claussen will ever live up to his hype. And a change of scenery might do Claussen some good. Plus the Rockies might feel they need another lefthanded starter for their rotation. But in order to balance out the contract of Jennings, the Reds add LaRue to the deal especially when the Rockies have somewhat a need for catching help. Now the Reds would need another player and lst baseman Ryan Shealy would be the guy. Does it take away playing time away from Aurilia? Some but the way Encarncion and Lopez are playing defensively, they might need alittle more "rest".

So the deal would end up being:

Reds trade Claussen and LaRue to the Rockies for RHP Jennings and lst baseman Shealy.

Opinions?

cincinnati chili
06-04-2006, 11:56 AM
In general, I think these are good ideas, but most are too friendly to the Reds. In most, if not all cases, the other teams wouldn't go along.



1) C Javier Valentin to Washington for RHP Jon Rauch

I'd do this, but I don't think the Nats would do this. Forget for a second that he's only had one good major league season. Valentin is 30 years old, and will be 32 or 33 before the Nats are competitive. If the Nats flip Rauch, I imagine they'll want someone who'll be under their control - and good - when their team is good.

2) OF Austin Kearns to Colorado for RHP Jason Jennings
From the Reds point of view, if we flip Kearns for pitchng (not a bad idea), we need to make a concurrent trade to keep the offense among the elite run-scoring offenses. Griffey cannot stay healthy more than 2/3 of the games. I don't trust Freel on an everyday basis. Now if you told me that we were doing this trade in conjunction with #3, I'd say go ahead.

From the Rockies perspective, if they want to add a CF (which I'm not sure they do - they think Cory Sullivan will snap out of it), I think they can probably do so just by trading Shealy rather than by giving up one of their better starters like Jennings.

3) C Jason LaRue and OF Chris Denorfia to Colorado for LHP Ray King and 1B Ryan Shealy
With respect to Denorfia, I do this trade in a New York second.

I think the Rockies will aim higher than Denorfia if giving up a guy like Shealy.

4) UT Ryan Freel and LHP Kent Mercker to Atlanta for RHP Jorge Sosa and OF Ryan Langerhans

This is your one trade where I don't like the targets. I think Sosa is a one year wonder. He doesn't have control over his stuff, and even though he's a late bloomer (for those who don't know he was an outfielder in pro ball from '95-'00 - who was then converted at age 23 or so), I don't think he'll bare fruit. He's 29 now.

Because of his speed and positional flexibility I like Freel better as a reserve than Langerhans.


Assuming the Reds are in it at the trade deadline, I think you look seriously at making a trade for Torii Hunter (1/3 year rental), putting him in CF and pushing Griffey to RF. I'd give up HOmer Bailey to get him, because as I've stated before I think the chances of Bailey amounting to much are slim. Griffey would save face here because it would be a reigning 5-time gold glover pushing him to a corner.

By getting Hunter, you vastly improve the defense for the stretch run. His bat is not as valuable as Kearns' but its passable.

You then trade Kearns for pitching.

I doubt there would be room in the budget to keep Hunter next year ($12 million option). But if he catches fire here, you'd always have that option.

If we were going after the Twins' organization, I would look at Scott Baker and Justin Morneau, in case they've fallen out of favor with their current management for recent struggles.

Kriv knows their people and could presumably pluck some gems.

MattyHo4Life
06-04-2006, 12:01 PM
3) C Jason LaRue and OF Chris Denorfia to Colorado for LHP Ray King and 1B Ryan Shealy

Josh Hancock says that Ray King is too fat to play in Cincy. ;)

ochre
06-04-2006, 12:33 PM
Josh Hancock says that Ray King is too fat to play in Cincy. ;)
nah it's a karma coup. Trade for Ray King and then release him to free all of Kearnses demons.

redsfan4445
06-04-2006, 01:34 PM
I like the Jennings acquistion but would rather trade Claussen instead of Kearns for Jennings. And here is why:

I don't think Claussen will ever live up to his hype. And a change of scenery might do Claussen some good. Plus the Rockies might feel they need another lefthanded starter for their rotation. But in order to balance out the contract of Jennings, the Reds add LaRue to the deal especially when the Rockies have somewhat a need for catching help. Now the Reds would need another player and lst baseman Ryan Shealy would be the guy. Does it take away playing time away from Aurilia? Some but the way Encarncion and Lopez are playing defensively, they might need alittle more "rest".

So the deal would end up being:

Reds trade Claussen and LaRue to the Rockies for RHP Jennings and lst baseman Shealy.

Opinions?



thats a great idea Krusty... i like that alot

NewEraReds
06-04-2006, 01:40 PM
1) C Javier Valentin to Washington for RHP Jon Rauch
no

2) OF Austin Kearns to Colorado for RHP Jason Jennings
NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

3) C Jason LaRue and OF Chris Denorfia to Colorado for LHP Ray King and 1B Ryan Shealy
no

4) UT Ryan Freel and LHP Kent Mercker to Atlanta for RHP Jorge Sosa and OF Ryan Langerhans
Yes, why would atlanta do it

Newman4
06-04-2006, 01:43 PM
I like the Jennings acquistion but would rather trade Claussen instead of Kearns for Jennings. And here is why:

I don't think Claussen will ever live up to his hype. And a change of scenery might do Claussen some good. Plus the Rockies might feel they need another lefthanded starter for their rotation. But in order to balance out the contract of Jennings, the Reds add LaRue to the deal especially when the Rockies have somewhat a need for catching help. Now the Reds would need another player and lst baseman Ryan Shealy would be the guy. Does it take away playing time away from Aurilia? Some but the way Encarncion and Lopez are playing defensively, they might need alittle more "rest".

So the deal would end up being:

Reds trade Claussen and LaRue to the Rockies for RHP Jennings and lst baseman Shealy.

Opinions?

Honestly, I don't like Claussen or Jennings, but Larue for Shealy would be a major coup.:)

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2006, 04:12 PM
I have been touting that Colorado deal or something like it for awhile now. It just seems a natural fit, I have no idea why anyone with or for the Reds wouldn't consider it. But I could see where we might have to add an arm to the deal, maybe a guy like Shackelford could seal the deal for us! ;)

Deal's 1 & 4 I would likely do, but I am not sure those teams would. And I would like to keep Kearns, and I'm positive the Rockies have enough COF types. But if they would do it, perhaps I could be persuaded!

Matt700wlw
06-04-2006, 04:16 PM
Dunn for Zito. Or Harden (but I don't think he's going anywhere....Zito will most likely be on the block)

What the hell, throw Claussen in there for another prospect too.

(Zito, Arroyo, Harang, Milton, Lizard)



I was on the Dunn for Brandon Webb bandwagon a year or so ago (whenever that rumor was around)....most people weren't.....how nice would he be right now?

RAS
06-04-2006, 04:18 PM
The last thing I want is another 1B if we continue to have Dunn and Griffey on this team. Our defense is slow and porous now, what's it going to be if those two continue to play side by side? Dunn has to be removed if we are ever to become a solid defensive club. I don't want Denorfio traded either

PTI (pti)
06-04-2006, 04:52 PM
Personally, I don't like any trade involving Austin Kearns. When healthy, he has the talent to be one of the premier all-around players in the game - he's now around .300 with 11 homers, and is very good defensively.

How about this move - Adam Dunn to Anaheim for John Lackey and prospects. Both signed 2-year deals this year, with a club option for 2008. But, Dunn makes around $7.5 million/year, whereas Lackey makes about $3.5 million/year. That would free up $4 million/year to spend on middle relief.

1) Aaron Harang
2) Bronson Arroyo
3) John Lackey
4) Eric Milton
5) Elizardo Ramirez


That's a pretty good starting 5, in my opinion. Maybe they can trade Claussen and pick up a veteran outfield bat - I was thinking someone like Brian Giles, but he just signed a 3-year, $30 million deal (WAY too expensive) - but someone similar. Maybe even (**gasp**) Reggie Sanders???

Newman4
06-04-2006, 05:48 PM
How about this move - Adam Dunn to Anaheim for John Lackey and prospects. Both signed 2-year deals this year, with a club option for 2008. But, Dunn makes around $7.5 million/year, whereas Lackey makes about $3.5 million/year. That would free up $4 million/year to spend on middle relief.

Depends on who the prospects are.

Jpup
06-04-2006, 06:02 PM
Personally, I don't like any trade involving Austin Kearns. When healthy, he has the talent to be one of the premier all-around players in the game - he's now around .300 with 11 homers, and is very good defensively.

How about this move - Adam Dunn to Anaheim for John Lackey and prospects. Both signed 2-year deals this year, with a club option for 2008. But, Dunn makes around $7.5 million/year, whereas Lackey makes about $3.5 million/year. That would free up $4 million/year to spend on middle relief.

1) Aaron Harang
2) Bronson Arroyo
3) John Lackey
4) Eric Milton
5) Elizardo Ramirez


That's a pretty good starting 5, in my opinion. Maybe they can trade Claussen and pick up a veteran outfield bat - I was thinking someone like Brian Giles, but he just signed a 3-year, $30 million deal (WAY too expensive) - but someone similar. Maybe even (**gasp**) Reggie Sanders???


Dunn for Lackey? :lol: are you serious? :laugh:

PTI (pti)
06-04-2006, 06:46 PM
Dunn for Lackey? :lol: are you serious? :laugh:



Yep - very serious. Dunn for Lackey *and* prospects. I don't really follow minor league baseball, but from what I understand Anaheim is pretty loaded down on the farm. Dunn is actually signed thru 2007, with an option for 2008. Lackey is signed thru 2008, with an option for 2009. BUT - Dunn makes a lot more $$. So you could pick up another Harang/Arroyo-caliber pitcher, a top-notch prospect or two, *and* save $4 million/year. With this trade I think Cincy could continue making a run at the central this year, but ALSO build for the future. Dunn is pretty easily replaced - but top experienced, top starters don't come along every day at $3.5 million/year.

To me, Dunn is the only viable option to be traded. Kearns is too valuable and Griffey would *only* be a salary dump.

KronoRed
06-04-2006, 06:51 PM
Dunns' option voids if traded so it's a 2 year deal to everyone else.

redsfanfalcon
06-04-2006, 08:01 PM
I was thinking about LaRue to the Rockies today, actaully. There was an article in USA Today on Wednesday about the Rockies and how they also like to build with character also. This would give them a legitimate starting catcher (anything is better than what they have) and also give Ross and Valentin a nice 1-2 punch.

Krusty
06-05-2006, 09:56 AM
How about this trade idea:

Dunn to Detroit for RHP Jeremy Bonderman.

Now I don't think the Tigers will make the deal till Maroth comes back off the DL. But Dunn would be a perfect fit as a DH for the Tigers. The Reds get a starter that could possibly win 15-20 games.

Newman4
06-05-2006, 10:08 AM
Yep - very serious. Dunn for Lackey *and* prospects. I don't really follow minor league baseball, but from what I understand Anaheim is pretty loaded down on the farm. Dunn is actually signed thru 2007, with an option for 2008. Lackey is signed thru 2008, with an option for 2009. BUT - Dunn makes a lot more $$. So you could pick up another Harang/Arroyo-caliber pitcher, a top-notch prospect or two, *and* save $4 million/year. With this trade I think Cincy could continue making a run at the central this year, but ALSO build for the future. Dunn is pretty easily replaced - but top experienced, top starters don't come along every day at $3.5 million/year.

To me, Dunn is the only viable option to be traded. Kearns is too valuable and Griffey would *only* be a salary dump.

Dunn for Lackey, Casey Kotchman and Ervin Santana would do it for me.

Redhook
06-05-2006, 10:25 AM
Personally, I don't like any trade involving Austin Kearns. When healthy, he has the talent to be one of the premier all-around players in the game - he's now around .300 with 11 homers, and is very good defensively.

How about this move - Adam Dunn to Anaheim for John Lackey and prospects. Both signed 2-year deals this year, with a club option for 2008. But, Dunn makes around $7.5 million/year, whereas Lackey makes about $3.5 million/year. That would free up $4 million/year to spend on middle relief.

1) Aaron Harang
2) Bronson Arroyo
3) John Lackey
4) Eric Milton
5) Elizardo Ramirez


That's a pretty good starting 5, in my opinion. Maybe they can trade Claussen and pick up a veteran outfield bat - I was thinking someone like Brian Giles, but he just signed a 3-year, $30 million deal (WAY too expensive) - but someone similar. Maybe even (**gasp**) Reggie Sanders???

"Reds | Dunn agrees to a two-year contract
Mon, 13 Feb 2006 19:43:01 -0800

The Associated Press reports Cincinnati Reds 1B Adam Dunn agreed to a two-year, $18.5 million deal Monday, Feb. 13, with the team. Dunn will make $7.5 million this season and $10.5 million in 2007. The club has an option for a $13 million salary in 2008, which it can buy out for $500,000."


Unfortunately, Dunn is probably going to be traded because he'll make too much for this ballclub. This year, he's affordable at $7.5 million. Next year, he'll make $10.5 million which is borderline, but I highly doubt he'll be in a Reds uniform at $13 million in 2008. I don't think he'll be traded this year because he's a bargain at $7.5 million and we need him to have any chance at the postseason. I look for him to be traded in the off season for some pitching help, hopefully someone better than Lackey.

PTI (pti)
06-05-2006, 01:27 PM
I'll give you that he's probably a bargain at $7.5 million this year, but won't give you that we need him to make the postseason. No way. Pitching wins - not walks/strikeouts/home runs/bad defense.

Lackey's name won't thrill anyone, but if I'm in the Reds front office, I'd be dying to trade Dunn for Lackey and Saunders. Don't know if they'll make the deal, but they *definitely* need some (young) bats, and their rotation is pretty solid.