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dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 09:34 AM
I know that a lot of the conversation (both good and bad) on this board circulates around Adam Dunn. I wanted to get a feel for how strongly some of us feel about Adam Dunn with a little game I call Adam Dunn or _____? The premise is simple... would you rather have Adam Dunn or ____? I've not done any statistical analysis or high-level mathematics. Do such calculations if you wish. I've compiled a list of OF/1B of similar age (under 30) and at least 1000 Major League AB's.

Remember to play nice!!!

Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)

I do not intend this to be a Dunn-bash... just want to see how objective some of us are.

redsfan30
06-05-2006, 09:43 AM
Maybe Miguel Cabrera, but none of the others.

Red Heeler
06-05-2006, 09:44 AM
Cabrera, yes.
Teixeira, maybe. It is pretty much a wash.
Bay, yes.
Everyone else, no.

NatiRedGals
06-05-2006, 09:46 AM
Miguel Cabrera and Vernon Wells and Jason Bay others sorry no

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2006, 09:48 AM
Miguel Cabrera and Vernon Wells and Jason Bay others sorry no

Vernon Wells? Seriously?

Dunn career OPS is 80 points higher than Wells.

As for the list, only Miguel Cabrera is better than Dunn, IMO. Bay is pretty darn close too.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 09:49 AM
Vernon Wells? Seriously?

Vernon Wells can D up.

rdiersin
06-05-2006, 09:50 AM
Cabrera, Sizemore, Bay for me.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 09:50 AM
Right now, I'd want Alfonso Soriano, hands down. He's Mr. Eveerything at the moment.

Now, if we're talking "careers" instead of simply picking the flavor of the month, I would probably go with either Teixeira or Cabrera, and take a long, hard look at Bay. Beyond that, I'm sticking with Dunn.

NatiRedGals
06-05-2006, 09:51 AM
Vernon Wells? Seriously?

Dunn career OPS is 80 points higher than Wells.

As for the list, only Miguel Cabrera is better than Dunn, IMO. Bay is pretty darn close too.

Dunn-Last 3 years Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 CIN 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .956
2005 CIN 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927
2006 CIN 55 191 42 45 11 0 17 32 46 63 1 0 .236 .383 .560 .944
Career 716 2462 462 609 138 6 175 406 508 796 42 16 .247 .383 .522 .905

Wells-Batting
Last 3 years Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 TOR 134 536 82 146 34 2 23 67 51 83 9 2 .272 .337 .472 .809
2005 TOR 156 620 78 167 30 3 28 97 47 86 8 3 .269 .320 .463 .783
2006 TOR 52 210 32 68 10 2 15 44 18 27 5 3 .324 .376 .605 .981
Career 719 2838 419 816 170 16 124 439 194 394 41 14 .288 .334 .490 .824

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 09:52 AM
Dunn-Last 3 years Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 CIN 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .956
2005 CIN 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927
2006 CIN 55 191 42 45 11 0 17 32 46 63 1 0 .236 .383 .560 .944
Career 716 2462 462 609 138 6 175 406 508 796 42 16 .247 .383 .522 .905

Wells-Batting
Last 3 years Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 TOR 134 536 82 146 34 2 23 67 51 83 9 2 .272 .337 .472 .809
2005 TOR 156 620 78 167 30 3 28 97 47 86 8 3 .269 .320 .463 .783
2006 TOR 52 210 32 68 10 2 15 44 18 27 5 3 .324 .376 .605 .981
Career 719 2838 419 816 170 16 124 439 194 394 41 14 .288 .334 .490 .824

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2006, 09:53 AM
Dunn-Last 3 years Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 CIN 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .956
2005 CIN 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927
2006 CIN 55 191 42 45 11 0 17 32 46 63 1 0 .236 .383 .560 .944
Career 716 2462 462 609 138 6 175 406 508 796 42 16 .247 .383 .522 .905

Wells-Batting
Last 3 years Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2004 TOR 134 536 82 146 34 2 23 67 51 83 9 2 .272 .337 .472 .809
2005 TOR 156 620 78 167 30 3 28 97 47 86 8 3 .269 .320 .463 .783
2006 TOR 52 210 32 68 10 2 15 44 18 27 5 3 .324 .376 .605 .981
Career 719 2838 419 816 170 16 124 439 194 394 41 14 .288 .334 .490 .824

What's that supposed to prove?

Dunn has a higher OPS over the last three years compared to Wells.

Wells .809, .783, .981

Dunn .957, .927, .943

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 09:55 AM
What's that supposed to prove?

Dunn has a higher OPS over the last three years compared to Wells.

Wells .809, .783, .981

Dunn .957, .927, .943
Whoa there, big fella. No need to get all defensive. She just posted stats so everyone can compare for themselves. (*whispers* There are stats other than OPS, ya know.)

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2006, 09:59 AM
Whoa there, big fella. No need to get all defensive. She just posted stats so everyone can compare for themselves. (*whispers* There are stats other than OPS, ya know.)

I think he was trying to point out that Vernon had a higher BA and less strikeouts. To which I say, who cares?:D

Nati, I didn't mean for that last post to sound sharp. I'm just curious to what your point was in that post.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 10:00 AM
Whoa there, big fella. No need to get all defensive. She just posted stats so everyone can compare for themselves.

FYI- Nati is a "he".

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 10:02 AM
FYI- Nati is a "he".
Oh snaps... my apologies.

dfs
06-05-2006, 10:06 AM
Cabrerra is a no brainer.
I would think about Sizemore and Teixeira leaning towards a yes and a no.
No to everybody else.

Highlifeman21
06-05-2006, 10:06 AM
Cabrera

Maybe Marky Mark

All the rest of them no thanks

Sizemore almost made my list, but they are just such different players that you can't compare. I'd want both Sizemore and Dunn, but for different reasons

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 10:06 AM
I didn't even answer my own question. I would take Beltran, Bay, Cabrera, and maybe Teixeira.

NatiRedGals
06-05-2006, 10:06 AM
LOL Its ok I wasnt carrying bout the strikeouts i just meant wells hits in clutch positions. Dunn can to I believe Wells is older the Dunn by the time Dunn is that age maybe he can do what Wells dose. I dont mind Dunns BA ethier but ont hit a game i believe is what he needs. Wells is better all around defense and offsense but he can never have dunns power numbers.

redssouth
06-05-2006, 10:17 AM
What's that supposed to prove?

Dunn has a higher OPS over the last three years compared to Wells.

Wells .809, .783, .981

Dunn .957, .927, .943

So are you suggesting for your team this is a DH role? Becasue it seems all you care about is hitting. You have taken .OPS and made it the only stat that matters... .OPS to overall game evaluation is what .BA is to evaluating hitting.

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2006, 10:37 AM
LOL Its ok I wasnt carrying bout the strikeouts i just meant wells hits in clutch positions. Dunn can to I believe Wells is older the Dunn by the time Dunn is that age maybe he can do what Wells dose. I dont mind Dunns BA ethier but ont hit a game i believe is what he needs. Wells is better all around defense and offsense but he can never have dunns power numbers.

Dunn already does what Wells does, and much more. Dunn is better at getting on base, hitting for power, and driving runs in.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 10:46 AM
Dunn already does what Wells does
Except play exceptional defense.

pedro
06-05-2006, 10:53 AM
Cabrera , maybe Texeira, maybe Bay.

Cedric
06-05-2006, 10:54 AM
Grady Sizemore does a ton of things well. I'd take Sizemore, Bay, and Cabrera and mostly because of how bad Dunn is in the field.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 11:01 AM
Miguel Cabrera (.947 OPS last year, 1.063 OPS last year)
Mark Teixeira (.954 OPS, 144 RBI's last year)
Jason Bay (.961 OPS last year, 1.016 this year)

All three of these guys are better than Dunn, no question.

That's not taking into acount defense.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 11:03 AM
Except play exceptional defense.
Yep, but is the question do you want Gary Maddox or Willie Stargell?

And do you factor defense into what you want out of every player you have in a lineup? Isn't that what LF and 1st are for?

Or do you balance skillsets by position?

Every player has warts. whether it's Dimaggio's knee, Ted Williams fielding, Mike Schmidts strikouts, Harmon Killebrews low batting average or Steve Garvey's or Riggs Stephanson's incredible weenie arm.

If this was a by scratch team then you could bet a few of those guys wouldn't even be the third pick for a team. But if Dunn is chocolate and the rest are fruit then I'd have to ask what else do I already have? Because chocolate goes with some stuff and fruit with others.

pedro
06-05-2006, 11:06 AM
Veron Wells is a very good CF, but I'm not convinced he's really as good offensivley as we've seen this year. If he had an OPS over .900 for his career, then yeah, but until he proves he can keep that OBP up above .360 I dunno.

guttle11
06-05-2006, 11:13 AM
Cabrera and Teixeira.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 11:14 AM
Yep, but is the question do you want Gary Maddox or Willie Stargell?

And do you factor defense into what you want out of every player you have in a lineup? Isn't that what LF and 1st are for?

Or do you balance skillsets by position?

Every player has warts. whether it's Dimaggio's knee, Ted Williams fielding, Mike Schmidts strikouts, Harmon Killebrews low batting average or Steve Garvey's or Riggs Stephanson's incredible weenie arm.

If this was a by scratch team then you could bet a few of those guys wouldn't even be the third pick for a team. But if Dunn is chocolate and the rest are fruit then I'd have to ask what else do I already have? Because chocolate goes with some stuff and fruit with others.
The hypothetical is overall, which player would you rather have? Not which would rather have if you were the Reds with the components that are already in place.

A guy like Wells is a pretty proven "5 tool" (sorry for using that term) player. His "warts" might be smaller than Dunn's.

Cyclone792
06-05-2006, 11:16 AM
Except play exceptional defense.

Hmmm ...


Batting Runs Above Average + Fielding Runs Above Average
Dunn 2004-2006: 71 runs above average
Wells 2004-2006: 13 runs above average

Win Shares
Dunn 2004-2006: 67
Wells 2004-2006: 42

Since Wells plays center field, he deserves a small positional adjustment that would tighten the gaps above slightly, but still this isn't particularly close. Sometimes I think people greatly misunderstand defensive value relative to actual offensive value. In other words, Dunn's offensive edge over Wells blows away Wells' defensive edge and positional advantages he has over Dunn.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 11:22 AM
Since Wells plays center field, he deserves a small positional adjustment that would tighten the gaps above slightly, but still this isn't particularly close. Sometimes I think people greatly misunderstand defensive value relative to actual offensive value. In other words, Dunn's offensive edge over Wells blows away Wells' defensive edge and positional advantages he has over Dunn.
I love playing devil's advocate. If you check post #18, I'd take Dunn over Wells as well. I was just refuting the statement that Dunn does everything better than Wells.

TeamSelig
06-05-2006, 11:32 AM
Miguel Cabrera in a heartbeat. I can see taking Vernon, but I don't think I would do it. We could really use a good CF, no offense to our future HOFer.

Cyclone792
06-05-2006, 11:32 AM
I love playing devil's advocate. If you check post #18, I'd take Dunn over Wells as well. I was just refuting the statement that Dunn does everything better than Wells.

Then we should be on the same page then ;)

FWIW, to answer the original question, the only sure thing for me would be Cabrera. Dunn, Teixeira and Bay are all a wash, IMO. If you want to pin me down to order the three, my preferences would probably be Teixeria, Dunn and Bay ... with my preference simply being youngest to oldest.

I do believe Dunn will retire with the greatest career value than everyone except for Cabrera, however, since Dunn broke into the majors at a young age.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 11:38 AM
No love for Beltran on RedsZone eh?

redsfan30
06-05-2006, 11:40 AM
No love for Beltran on RedsZone eh?
He was good in Kansas City, but once he hit the bright lights, he seems to have fizzled.

He's living off October of 2004 right now.

Highlifeman21
06-05-2006, 11:43 AM
No love for Beltran on RedsZone eh?

Since he's been a Met his production has dropped.

I don't think that he's as elite as his contract may suggest.

savafan
06-05-2006, 11:44 AM
Dunn is the second best player at his age all-time. The only player better than him is Albert Pujols. I'll stick with Dunn, even over Cabrera.

pedro
06-05-2006, 11:46 AM
Dunn is the second best player at his age all-time. The only player better than him is Albert Pujols. I'll stick with Dunn, even over Cabrera.

I don't know about that.

Puig Your Red
06-05-2006, 11:49 AM
Cabrera and Wells because of his insane defense.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 11:53 AM
Dunn is the second best player at his age all-time. The only player better than him is Albert Pujols. I'll stick with Dunn, even over Cabrera.
3rd, if you want to be so bold... Hank Greenberg...


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1930 19 DET AL 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
1933 22 DET AL 117 449 59 135 33 3 12 87 6 2 46 78 .301 .367 .468 210 2 1
1934 23 DET AL 153 593 118 201 63 7 26 139 9 5 63 93 .339 .404 .600 356 9 2
1935 24 DET AL 152 619 121 203 46 16 36 170 4 3 87 91 .328 .411 .628 389 4 0
1936 25 DET AL 12 46 10 16 6 2 1 16 1 0 9 6 .348 .455 .630 29 0 0
1937 26 DET AL 154 594 137 200 49 14 40 183 8 3 102 101 .337 .436 .668 397 2 3
1938 27 DET AL 155 556 144 175 23 4 58 146 7 5 119 92 .315 .438 .683 380 3 3

edabbs44
06-05-2006, 11:54 AM
Bay and Miggy without a doubt. Big Tex would have been a sure thing until this year. If the power stroke returns, then yes. Sizemore is in the mix and Soriano is a yes, depending on what the other qualifiers are (i.e., is this for the future also, the next 5 years or just for now?). Carlos Lee as well.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:01 PM
Dunn is the second best player at his age all-time. The only player better than him is Albert Pujols. I'll stick with Dunn, even over Cabrera.
Nah... top 50 in RC/27 vs the league though (2000 pa's under age 26)


CAREER
MODERN (1900-)
AGE <= 25
AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OPS vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB OPS
1 Ted Williams 8.07 13.38 5.31 2104 .363
2 Ty Cobb 5.50 9.73 4.22 3917 .276
3 Mickey Mantle 5.41 10.20 4.79 3418 .264
4 Jimmie Foxx 5.41 10.87 5.46 3323 .300
5 Stan Musial 5.40 9.88 4.48 2323 .279
6 Joe Jackson 5.24 9.65 4.41 2700 .277
7 Lou Gehrig 5.20 10.57 5.37 2193 .296
8 Frank Thomas 4.95 9.47 4.51 1872 .276
9 Albert Pujols 4.43 9.58 5.15 2954 .266
10 Tris Speaker 4.27 8.69 4.43 2817 .232
11 Paul Waner 4.17 9.25 5.09 1761 .218
12 Joe DiMaggio 4.15 10.11 5.96 2827 .229
13 Charlie Keller 3.87 9.14 5.27 1949 .192
14 Arky Vaughan 3.76 8.78 5.02 3164 .176
15 Dick Allen 3.72 8.03 4.32 2262 .233
16 Rogers Hornsby 3.56 7.73 4.16 3184 .215
17 Mel Ott 3.54 8.87 5.33 3949 .202
18 Eddie Collins 3.44 7.79 4.34 2556 .178
19 Willie Mays 3.36 8.29 4.93 2314 .213
20 Eddie Mathews 3.27 8.22 4.95 3206 .190
21 Joe Medwick 3.25 8.28 5.03 3224 .201
22 Frank Robinson 2.99 7.81 4.83 3286 .195
23 Will Clark 2.91 7.37 4.46 2100 .186
24 Jimmy Sheckard 2.90 7.85 4.94 2350 .130
25 Jim Bottomley 2.90 8.18 5.28 1821 .171
26 Don Mattingly 2.89 7.44 4.55 2223 .183
27 Al Simmons 2.83 8.29 5.46 2239 .171
28 Ken Griffey Jr. 2.79 7.42 4.62 3440 .182
29 Alex Rodriguez 2.74 8.03 5.29 3758 .170
30 Tony Oliva 2.64 6.89 4.25 1886 .174
31 Sherry Magee 2.63 6.88 4.25 3582 .147
32 Tim Raines 2.55 6.95 4.40 2792 .096
33 Hank Aaron 2.53 7.43 4.90 3524 .176
34 John Olerud 2.49 7.14 4.65 2213 .148
35 Nomar Garciaparra 2.43 7.67 5.24 1907 .157
36 Manny Ramirez 2.39 7.67 5.28 1938 .162
37 Darryl Strawberry 2.36 6.94 4.58 2342 .163
38 Vladimir Guerrero 2.34 7.69 5.34 2755 .183
39 Sam Crawford 2.31 6.87 4.56 3146 .138
40 Jim Rice 2.31 6.59 4.28 2533 .185
41 Rickey Henderson 2.24 6.71 4.47 2916 .083
42 Harmon Killebrew 2.20 6.96 4.76 1783 .155
43 Bobby Bonds 2.15 6.56 4.42 2211 .126
44 Adam Dunn 2.14 7.27 5.14 2271 .131
45 Hal Trosky 2.12 8.04 5.92 3085 .139
46 Rocky Colavito 2.12 6.78 4.66 1869 .164
47 Ross Youngs 2.12 6.64 4.53 2633 .128
48 Reggie Jackson 2.09 6.28 4.19 2213 .155
49 John Mayberry 2.09 6.24 4.15 1738 .125
50 Goose Goslin 2.01 7.42 5.40 2756 .122

K-GAR
06-05-2006, 12:09 PM
I know that a lot of the conversation (both good and bad) on this board circulates around Adam Dunn. I wanted to get a feel for how strongly some of us feel about Adam Dunn with a little game I call Adam Dunn or _____? The premise is simple... would you rather have Adam Dunn or ____? I've not done any statistical analysis or high-level mathematics. Do such calculations if you wish. I've compiled a list of OF/1B of similar age (under 30) and at least 1000 Major League AB's.

Remember to play nice!!!

Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)

I do not intend this to be a Dunn-bash... just want to see how objective some of us are.

Cabrera - No Doubt about it
Grady - Honestly, yes
Teixeira - Actually would be above Miggy for me
Bay - Definitely
Carlos Lee - Yes
Vernon Wells - if he were 26 instead of 29, definitely...I would consider it as is though
Soriano - definitely, too special of a player to not have

PTI (pti)
06-05-2006, 12:15 PM
I know that a lot of the conversation (both good and bad) on this board circulates around Adam Dunn. I wanted to get a feel for how strongly some of us feel about Adam Dunn with a little game I call Adam Dunn or _____? The premise is simple... would you rather have Adam Dunn or ____? I've not done any statistical analysis or high-level mathematics. Do such calculations if you wish. I've compiled a list of OF/1B of similar age (under 30) and at least 1000 Major League AB's.

Remember to play nice!!!

Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)

I do not intend this to be a Dunn-bash... just want to see how objective some of us are.


Cabrera, Teixeira, Beltran, Soriano, Lee, Jason Bay, and Vernon Wells are perennial All-Stars (or will be in the near future) and they would be an absolute no-brainer.

Grady Sizemore - too early to tell, but appears to be a budding superstar.

Pat Burrell is a wash.

I'd take Dunn over Kevin Mench and Lyle Overbay.





On-base %, OPS, walks, blah, blah, blah - don't impress me. NOT from a #3/4/5 hitter. Save that stuff for your leadoff man. Dunn doesn't swing the bat enough (never thought I'd say it - but he walks *too* much) and is horrible defensively.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:16 PM
blah, blah, blah Right...outs are cool

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 12:17 PM
Right...outs are cool
Productive outs are... and yes... there is such a thing.

K-GAR
06-05-2006, 12:20 PM
The biggest problem I have with dunn, other than his defense, is the fact that he lays off so many pitches he could mash, i have ZERO problem with him not swinging at balls, but he gets and takes way too many strikes he could do something with.

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:24 PM
On-base %, OPS, walks, blah, blah, blah - don't impress me. NOT from a #3/4/5 hitter. Save that stuff for your leadoff man.


:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:26 PM
Productive outs are... and yes... there is such a thing.

yeah, but players generally can't control "productive outs". They are merely luck.

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:27 PM
Being an all star doesn't impress me. Fans vote for all stars and a lot of fans don't have a clue.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:28 PM
Being an all star doesn't impress me. Fans vote for all stars and a lot of fans don't have a clue.
Ya think? :laugh:

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 12:29 PM
yeah, but players generally can't control "productive outs". They are merely luck.
I don't like that way of thinking.

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:34 PM
I don't like that way of thinking.

but it's hard to refute. productive outs are nice (although I'd prefer a non out event) but players are trying to get hits when they're up, not make productive outs. If a productive out happens , great, but that's not what they're up there trying to do most of the time. Very few guys have that kind of bat control.

dougdirt
06-05-2006, 12:35 PM
Cabrea, Teixeira and Bay...Yes, no questions asked. Vernon Wells, with all things even, no. With salary, contracts and other things, possibly. But straight up, no. Soriano probably plays better defense and offensively I think he is better than Adam Dunn is. Dunn is a little younger though, however I would be will to trade Adam Dunns next 2 years for Soriano's next 2. This is where the question gets confusing. How long am I supposed to be taking this into? I would take Dunn's next 5 years over Soriano's next 5, but not his next 2 seasons. Everyone else on the list is a no.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:37 PM
I don't like that way of thinking.
Random is random

Pete Rose had 4 sac flies in 2188 PA's from 71-73.

In 1974 he had 6.

Did he try for more? Or were the events more random occurances.

If Productive outs aren't somewhat random how come the Reds Sac Fly leader in a season (Temple 13) never topped 6 again?

VI_RedsFan
06-05-2006, 12:38 PM
Cabrera, Bay, and Texiera. Definately not the rest of them.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 12:40 PM
On-base %, OPS, walks, blah, blah, blah - don't impress me. NOT from a #3/4/5 hitter. Save that stuff for your leadoff man. Dunn doesn't swing the bat enough (never thought I'd say it - but he walks *too* much) and is horrible defensively.

That has to be the funniest thing I have ever read.

OPS measures a hitter's ability to get on and his ability to hit for power. If those aren't important to get from the middle of the lineup, I don't know what is.

That is how you score runs. You get guy's on then hit them in. Dunn can do both.

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:41 PM
Soriano probably plays better defense and offensively I think he is better than Adam Dunn is. Dunn is a little younger though, however I would be will to trade Adam Dunns next 2 years for Soriano's next 2. This is where the question gets confusing. How long am I supposed to be taking this into? I would take Dunn's next 5 years over Soriano's next 5, but not his next 2 seasons. Everyone else on the list is a no.

Soriano is clearly not nearly the hitter that Adam Dunn is, despite the good year he is having. I'm not convinced he's a better LF either but it's proabbly a wash as they both aren't very good out there.

savafan
06-05-2006, 12:41 PM
3rd, if you want to be so bold... Hank Greenberg...


Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
1930 19 DET AL 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0
1933 22 DET AL 117 449 59 135 33 3 12 87 6 2 46 78 .301 .367 .468 210 2 1
1934 23 DET AL 153 593 118 201 63 7 26 139 9 5 63 93 .339 .404 .600 356 9 2
1935 24 DET AL 152 619 121 203 46 16 36 170 4 3 87 91 .328 .411 .628 389 4 0
1936 25 DET AL 12 46 10 16 6 2 1 16 1 0 9 6 .348 .455 .630 29 0 0
1937 26 DET AL 154 594 137 200 49 14 40 183 8 3 102 101 .337 .436 .668 397 2 3
1938 27 DET AL 155 556 144 175 23 4 58 146 7 5 119 92 .315 .438 .683 380 3 3


Fair enough. :)

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:50 PM
This is a valid question though and not a bad idea for a thread as it helps put things into perspective.

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 12:51 PM
Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23) - over dunn
Grady Sizemore (24) - over dunn
Mark Teixeira (26) - over dunn
Jason Bay (27) - over dunn
Kevin Mench (28) - dunn
Carlos Lee (29) - close, but dunn
Pat Burrell (29) - dunn
Lyle Overbay (29) - dunn
Carlos Beltran (29) - dunn
Vernon Wells (29) - over dunn
Alfonso Soriano (29) - dunn

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 12:52 PM
Vernon Wells can D up.
according to dunn appologists, defense, running bases, hitting in key situations DONT MATTER


all that matters is how many walks and home runs you have at the end of the year

K-GAR
06-05-2006, 12:54 PM
Soriano is clearly not nearly the hitter that Adam Dunn is, despite the good year he is having. I'm not convinced he's a better LF either but it's proabbly a wash as they both aren't very good out there.

I think Soriano is better than dunn in both aspects, he's much more mobile and gets to a lot of balls dunn wouldn't. yes they are both shaky with the leather so that's a wash, but Soriano's range makes him more attractive. And dunn obviously has more *raw* power than soriano, but he's hitting .300 and has more hr's than dunn and will steal many many many more bases and get more doubles than dunn.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 12:55 PM
I'd take Miguel Cabrera hands down. I'd have to at least think aboutMark Teixeira and Jason Bay, but I'm not sure. I like what Soriano has to offer, but thats where I look at age as well. Dunn is 26 will be 27 in November. Soriano is 30 now and will be 31 next January. I'd take my chances on that we haven't seen the best of Adam Dunn yet.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 12:55 PM
according to dunn appologists, defense, running bases, hitting in key situations DONT MATTER


all that matters is how many walks and home runs you have at the end of the year
Yeah, that's exactly what the "Dunn apoloogists" say.

Have any other blankets you want to wrap us in?

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 12:55 PM
This is a valid question though and not a bad idea for a thread as it helps put things into perspective.
Thanks! I accept rep points of all denominations.

Back to productive outs. Yes, there is some luck involved. But a strikeout is never a productive out. (I understand about increased pitch counts.) When you strike out as much as he does, you decrease your possibilities for "making good things happen." But we are :deadhorse :deadhorse now, aren't we???

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:57 PM
according to dunn appologists, defense, running bases, hitting in key situations DONT MATTER


all that matters is how many walks and home runs you have at the end of the year

That's not it at all concerning Wells, it's just that while his D is good, he hasn't been consistent enough offensively to make up the difference. If he put up numbers like this year, or even 2003 every year, then I'm sure there would be a lot of folks who would take Wells over Dunn.

I'm on the fence concerning Sizemore, but if he continues at the offensive pace he's putting up this year, it would make a pretty strong case.

pedro
06-05-2006, 12:59 PM
I think Soriano is better than dunn in both aspects, he's much more mobile and gets to a lot of balls dunn wouldn't. yes they are both shaky with the leather so that's a wash, but Soriano's range makes him more attractive. And dunn obviously has more *raw* power than soriano, but he's hitting .300 and has more hr's than dunn and will steal many many many more bases and get more doubles than dunn.

look at Soriano's career numbers. He makes a crapload of outs. He's doing great this year, but that hasn't always been the case. Plus he's 4 year older.

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 01:00 PM
That's not it at all concerning Wells, it's just that while his D is good, he hasn't been consistent enough offensively to make up the difference. If he put up numbers like this year, or even 2003 every year, then I'm sure there would be a lot of folks who would take Wells over Dunn.

I'm on the fence concerning Sizemore, but if he continues at the offensive pace he's putting up this year, it would make a pretty strong case.
and dunn isnt nearly good enough in anything else to make up for all his bad. IMO.

this is something that is so one side or the other. no one will ever back down from their opinion. either you are for dunn or you arent. im not for it, i think we are better team with a dif guy out there in left.

pedro
06-05-2006, 01:04 PM
and dunn isnt nearly good enough in anything else to make up for all his bad. IMO.

this is something that is so one side or the other. no one will ever back down from their opinion. either you are for dunn or you arent. im not for it, i think we are better team with a dif guy out there in left.

It's just that his deficiences don't cost the Reds as many runs as he gets them offensively. Not even close.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:06 PM
I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first Red to drive in 100 runs two years in a row since Dave Parker

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first (and only) Red to hit 75 EBH in a season two years in a row since Frank Robinson

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first Red since Morgan and Griffey to score 100 runs 2 seasons in row.

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first (and only the 3rd) Red since Foster to hit 40 HR's 2 seasons in row

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:07 PM
Soriano is clearly not nearly the hitter that Adam Dunn is, despite the good year he is having. I'm not convinced he's a better LF either but it's proabbly a wash as they both aren't very good out there.

Where Dunn excels beyond most other hitters is at gettiing on base--he's absolutely one of the best in the game. Thus, overall, there's no doubt that he's superior to Soriano. But Soriano has outstanding speed, which Dunn--though not Casey-slow--doesn't possess. There simply aren't that many 30-30 guys in the league.

I would say Dave Kingman was not nearly the hitter that Adam Dunn is...Soriano may not be at Dunn's levels, but he's not all that far behind, either.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:09 PM
My final input on Dunn:

I go back and forth... I like him, I can't stand him, I like him, I can't stand him, etc., etc.

I can't determine for myself if he is "replacable." I know that the FO would have no problem finding a trading partner for him and could most likely get good value prospects in return.

I think it would be extremely difficult to replace his value (statistically), even with multiple lineup changes.

Should they trade him if they get and offer they can't refuse? Sure. No one is off the market.

As far as his defense and my disappointment with his overly laid-back attitude, I'll just keep throwing stuff at my TV.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:11 PM
And dunn obviously has more *raw* power than soriano, but he's hitting .300 and has more hr's than dunn and will steal many many many more bases and get more doubles than dunn.

If he ends up doing those things, it will be the first time he's eclisped Dunn there (except stolen bases.) For their careers, Dunn averages an XBH every 7.71 ABs. Soriano averages one every 8.54 ABs.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:11 PM
I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first Red to drive in 100 runs two years in a row since Dave Parker

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first (and only) Red to hit 75 EBH in a season two years in a row since Frank Robinson

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first Red since Morgan and Griffey to score 100 runs 2 seasons in row.

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first (and only the 3rd) Red since Foster to hit 40 HR's 2 seasons in row

If you want to appologize then about for his striking out 200 times a year or his striking out with RISP?

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:12 PM
If you want to appologize then about for his striking out 200 times a year or his striking out with RISP?

I see, you admit that he's an outstanding player, but he's simply not outstanding enough.

We can't all be Ted Williams, you know.

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 01:13 PM
Where Dunn excels beyond most other hitters is at gettiing on base--he's absolutely one of the best in the game. Thus, overall, there's no doubt that he's superior to Soriano. But Soriano has outstanding speed, which Dunn--though not Casey-slow--doesn't possess. There simply aren't that many 30-30 guys in the league.

I would say Dave Kingman was not nearly the hitter that Adam Dunn is...Soriano may not be at Dunn's levels, but he's not all that far behind, either.
whats better in this scenario. you have a man on 3rd, 1 out.

walking.

sac fly/base hit. you dont pay the kind of money you are paying dunn to walk. you pay the guys who are clutch and knocking in the runs

IMO

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:14 PM
I see, you admit that he's an outstanding player, but he's simply not outstanding enough.

We can't all be Ted Williams, you know.

We all have faults that can be worked on. Dunn has a few glaring faults. Work on those just a tick and he could be twice the player he is now.

saboforthird
06-05-2006, 01:14 PM
Yep, but is the question do you want Gary Maddox or Willie Stargell?

And do you factor defense into what you want out of every player you have in a lineup? Isn't that what LF and 1st are for?

Or do you balance skillsets by position?

Every player has warts. whether it's Dimaggio's knee, Ted Williams fielding, Mike Schmidts strikouts, Harmon Killebrews low batting average or Steve Garvey's or Riggs Stephanson's incredible weenie arm.

If this was a by scratch team then you could bet a few of those guys wouldn't even be the third pick for a team. But if Dunn is chocolate and the rest are fruit then I'd have to ask what else do I already have? Because chocolate goes with some stuff and fruit with others.

Having read the thread up to your post, I think the premise of this thread was "who would you pick from these guys as your players if you didn't have Dunn?". I don't recall the OP saying that criteria should be limited to defense, offense or whathaveyou. I think the intent of the thread was rather simple, simply pick the guys you'd want, not have to worry about "comparing" them to Dunn, and being respectful of the choices of others.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:16 PM
whats better in this scenario. you have a man on 3rd, 1 out.

walking.

sac fly/base hit. you dont pay the kind of money you are paying dunn to walk. you pay the guys who are clutch and knocking in the runs

IMO

You won't win that argument here. I agree completely with you however. Some here feel that its the players job to get on base, while I feel the job is the score runs. One one hand they want to look at everything on a Macro level but when the situations suits they want to look at it on a Micro level. They like to switch back and forth to whichever suits their argument.

rdiersin
06-05-2006, 01:17 PM
I'm on the fence concerning Sizemore, but if he continues at the offensive pace he's putting up this year, it would make a pretty strong case.

I think the part that put him over, in my picks at least, was his youth and contract status. But looking at the players and not at any of that stuff, then I would pick Dunn, but I agree it is close.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:17 PM
whats better in this scenario. you have a man on 3rd, 1 out.

walking.

sac fly/base hit. you dont pay the kind of money you are paying dunn to walk. you pay the guys who are clutch and knocking in the runs

IMO

...and on that scenario you're basing your evaluation of Dunn?

Do you know how many times Dunn has been up in the situation you provided? Hint: It's not that many.

This "productive out" thing is a smokescreen. Basically, people who bash DUnn for this are saying that, sure, he gets a lot of XBHs, sure he's great at avoiding outs, sure he knocks in a lot of runs and hits for power--but in the handful of times every year when Dunn comes to the plate when a "productive out" would be preferable to not making an out, he doesn't come through as often as I would like. Therefore, he sucks.

It's ridiculous.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:19 PM
...and on that scenario you're basing your evaluation of Dunn?

Do you know how many times Dunn has been up in the situation you provided? Hint: It's not that many.

This "productive out" thing is a smokescreen. Basically, people who bash DUnn for this are saying that, sure, he gets a lot of XBHs, sure he's great at avoiding outs, sure he knocks in a lot of runs and hits for power--but in the handful of times every year when Dunn comes to the plate when a "productive out" would be preferable to not making an out, he doesn't come through as often as I would like. Therefore, he sucks.

It's ridiculous.

A strikeout is never a productive out. It never scores anybody and never moves anyone over on the bases.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:19 PM
You won't win that argument here. I agree completely with you however. Some here feel that its the players job to get on base, while I feel the job is the score runs.

Yes, and the two are in no way related. :rolleyes:

guttle11
06-05-2006, 01:21 PM
Here we go again...:explode:

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:22 PM
Yes, and the two are in no way related. :rolleyes:

I didn't say that. The result is the runs scored. The by product is the hit or walk that got the run in.

In the OPS mindset the walk or hit is the result while the run is the byproduct. As soon as the object of baseball changes and runs are no longer the measure of who wins or loses I'll take the runs as the result and not the byproduct.

Caveat Emperor
06-05-2006, 01:22 PM
according to dunn appologists, defense, running bases, hitting in key situations DONT MATTER

all that matters is how many walks and home runs you have at the end of the year

Tell me why they matter.

Or, to break it down further:

Tell me why LF defense is so important to the Boston Red Sox that they stuck a guy out there who, it has been suggested, is wasting perfectly good leather carrying a glove out in the field with him.

Cite me a few examples of Adam Dunn baserunning blunders costing the Reds ballgames and/or how many 3/4 hitters out there have (and use) speed on the basepathes.

Tell me why hitting in a "key situation" has more of an outcome on the game than hitting in a "non-key" situation. I contend that every run you score is important and the run you score to go up 4-0 in a game is just as important as the run in the 8th that breaks the 4-4 tie. Tell me why I'm wrong.

This discourse can be civil if we stick to facts and don't call each other names.

Oh yeah, and to answer this thread's real topic -- I take Miggy Cabrera in a heartbeat, I think hard about Bay and Teixeira and all the others I think it's really a push. Wells is having the best year of his life right now, and I always hesitate to put too much stock in that. I think Bay would be an even more fearsome hitter outside of the Pirates lineup, but I'm not going to bet that he'll end up being better than Dunn.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:23 PM
...and on that scenario you're basing your evaluation of Dunn?

Do you know how many times Dunn has been up in the situation you provided? Hint: It's not that many.

This "productive out" thing is a smokescreen. Basically, people who bash DUnn for this are saying that, sure, he gets a lot of XBHs, sure he's great at avoiding outs, sure he knocks in a lot of runs and hits for power--but in the handful of times every year when Dunn comes to the plate when a "productive out" would be preferable to not making an out, he doesn't come through as often as I would like. Therefore, he sucks.

It's ridiculous.
I'm the one who brought up productive outs and I don't think Dunn sucks. I'm just saying there is something to be said for driving in runs. I understand the usefulness of OPS as a tool for evaluating production, but I think the RBI still has a place of relevance in this discussion. Can someone do a comparison of players over the last 4 years with OPS similar to Dunn's along with their RBI totals??? (I'm not gifted in that way.)

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:23 PM
A strikeout is never a productive out. It never scores anybody and never moves anyone over on the bases.

Frequently, groundouts and flyouts don't do those things, either. The few that do happen so rarely they get their own statistical category in the box scores--S and SF.

I find it bordelrine hilarious that you could replace every single one of Dunn's Ks with an assortment of groundouts and flyouts, increase Dunn's productive outs by the corresponding 5 or 6, watch his plate discipline fall to shambles, and there are people who think they would view Dunn as a betterplayer than they do now.

pedro
06-05-2006, 01:23 PM
I didn't say that. The result is the runs scored. The by product is the hit or walk that got the run in.

In the OPS mindset the walk or hit is the result while the run is the byproduct. As soon as the object of baseball changes and runs are no longer the measure of who wins or loses I'll take the runs as the result and not the byproduct.

and yet Adam Dunn has scored more runs than every other Reds for the last 5 years.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:27 PM
Frequently, groundouts and flyouts don't do those things, either. The few that do happen so rarely they get their own statistical category in the box scores--S and SF.

I find it bordelrine hilarious that you could replace every single one of Dunn's Ks with an assortment of groundouts and flyouts, increase Dunn's productive outs by the corresponding 5 or 6, watch his plate discipline fall to shambles, and there are people who think they would view Dunn as a betterplayer than they do now.

Plate discipline?? Are you kidding me?? Everyone says this about Dunn I 100% disagree. He walks a lot, good for him. A lot of those walks are the unintentional/intentional variety because he is always a threat to hit a HR, but I have never in my life seen someone take so many 3rd strikes EVER!! If you have 2 strikes and its close SWING!! Don't look at the umpire with a goofy look on your face.

TC81190
06-05-2006, 01:27 PM
Miguel Cabrera, maaaaybe Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Pat Burrell, Mark Teixeira, and Vernon Wells.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:28 PM
I didn't say that. The result is the runs scored. The by product is the hit or walk that got the run in.

You actually have it backwards. Getting on base--i.e. not making outs--is the single most important goal that a batter has. More so than hitting a home run, more so than not striking out, more so than not hitting into a double play--the most important goal is to find a way to not get out. A team that has enough players do this will ultimately be successful.


In the OPS mindset the walk or hit is the result while the run is the byproduct. As soon as the object of baseball changes and runs are no longer the measure of who wins or loses I'll take the runs as the result and not the byproduct.

There are others on the board much better at explaining this than am I, suffice to say a quick search of this forum will provide you with plenty of insight into this topic. The long and short of it is that runs are an important by-product of getting on base. The more players a team has that are good at avoiding outs, the more runs they will score. It comes down to a fundmental understanding of what drives run scoring.

saboforthird
06-05-2006, 01:29 PM
It's just that his deficiences don't cost the Reds as many runs as he gets them offensively. Not even close.

Again, it seems to come down to Dunn gettins walks and homeruns. What else does the guy do for the team, in terms of production?

Adam had to be TOLD to hit to all parts of the field, AFTER seeing a shift on him for God knows how long. Great hitters don't need this sort of instruction at this level of play. Tweaks in the mechanics of hitting, maybe, but not instruction on the fundamentals of offense.

When he DOES get on base (when he's not striking out or walking), there isn't much behind him to drive him in, but the worst part is he can't help himself on the bases. I remember hearing a year (maybe two years ago) that Dunn "has a lot of speed for someone his size". If this is true, why isn't he attempting stolen bases?

There are a lot of reasons to go after some of those other players listed, not counting the above-mentioned reasons (and those listed by other posters in this thread).

(Y) Miguel Cabrera (23) - freaky talent, young
(N) Grady Sizemore (24) - would be a quality leadoff hitter, though
(Y) Mark Teixeira (26) - a lot like Cabrera
(Y) Jason Bay (27) - pretty close to Bay, IMO
(N) Kevin Mench (28) - slugger
(N) Carlos Lee (29) - injuries
(N) Pat Burrell (29) - slugger
(Y) Lyle Overbay (29) - not sure
(N) Carlos Beltran (29) - flash in the pan
(Y) Vernon Wells (29) - enough said about his fielding
(Y) Alfonso Soriano (29) - maybe best all-around athlete in the bunch

guttle11
06-05-2006, 01:29 PM
Miguel Cabrera, maaaaybe Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Pat Burrell, Mark Teixeira, and Vernon Wells.

Stop dragging this thread off topic. It's about Adam Dunn and how poeple view and skew his stats. Why would you do that?;)

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:30 PM
See exactly like I said. In the OPS mindset getting on base is more important than scoring runs. Thats flawed in so many ways.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:30 PM
There are others on the board much better at explaining this than am I, suffice to say a quick search of this forum will provide you with plenty of insight into this topic. The long and short of it is that runs are an important by-product of getting on base. The more players a team has that are good at avoiding outs, the more runs they will score. It comes down to a fundmental understanding of what drives run scoring.
But I think this "new age" way of thinking about scoring runs undervalues the actual driver-in of the run. I still think RBIs are a revevant statistic. I know that puts me in a minority, maybe.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:31 PM
But I think this "new age" way of thinking about scoring runs undervalues the actual driver-in of the run. I still think RBIs are a revevant statistic. I know that puts me in a minority, maybe.

The minority here yes. The majority anywhere else.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:31 PM
I'm just saying there is something to be said for driving in runs.And who has the most RBI's on the Reds in the last 4 seasons?

Adam Dunn - 331, 11.6 of the Reds RBI's in those 4 seasons.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:32 PM
Plate discipline?? Are you kidding me?? Everyone says this about Dunn I 100% disagree.

You may disagree, but you would be disagreeing with the facts. Adam has an OBP of nearly .390 each of the last two seasons, as well as over 100 walks each. His plate discipline is what has allowed him to be successful, up to this point in his career. A high strikeout total is not an indication of a lack of plate discipline, but a high walk total is.


A lot of those walks are the unintentional/intentional variety

This sounds suspiciously like one of those "I don't have statistics to back it up but I know its true" arguments. Hmmmm...

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:33 PM
See exactly like I said. In the OPS mindset getting on base is more important than scoring runs. Thats flawed in so many ways.

Feel free to elaborate. I'm curious.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:34 PM
You may disagree, but you would be disagreeing with the facts. Adam has an OBP of nearly .390 each of the last two seasons, as well as over 100 walks each. His plate discipline is what has allowed him to be successful, up to this point in his career. A high strikeout total is not an indication of a lack of plate discipline, but a high walk total is.



This sounds suspiciously like one of those "I don't have statistics to back it up but I know its true" arguments. Hmmmm...

No. Thats one of those no way to prove it.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:34 PM
And who has the most RBI's on the Reds in the last 4 seasons?

Adam Dunn - 331, 11.6 of the Reds RBI's in those 4 seasons.
Yes, but how many more could there be without the K's???

Handofdeath
06-05-2006, 01:34 PM
I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first Red to drive in 100 runs two years in a row since Dave Parker

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first (and only) Red to hit 75 EBH in a season two years in a row since Frank Robinson

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first Red since Morgan and Griffey to score 100 runs 2 seasons in row.

I apologize for Adam Dunn being the first (and only the 3rd) Red since Foster to hit 40 HR's 2 seasons in row

Maybe you can apologize for Dunn having the worst HR/RBI ratio in the NL. No one who has hit over three homers in the NL this year has a worse percentage.

Maybe you can apologize for Dunn being horrible defensively at two positions.

Maybe you could apologize for Dunn striking out 40% of the time with runners on and having an OPS of 241 points less than when he's batting with the bases empty.

pedro
06-05-2006, 01:34 PM
Again, it seems to come down to Dunn gettins walks and homeruns. What else does the guy do for the team, in terms of production?





you mean besides leading the team in RBI's and Runs Scored and OBP every year and running up the opposing pitchers pitch counts and getting better pitches for those hitting around him because he's either on base or coming up?

BRM
06-05-2006, 01:35 PM
So, the guy who has led the Reds in runs scored and RBI each of the last two seasons doesn't run the bases or drive in runs very well. I wish the Reds had more players that sucked like that.

guttle11
06-05-2006, 01:35 PM
No. Thats one of those no way to prove it.

You can prove intentional walks. The "unintentional" variety you're talking about just speaks volumes about his plate discipline.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:35 PM
Yes, but how many more could there be without the K's???
How many Angels can dance on the head of a pin?

Albert has 15% of the Cards RBI's in that period and he's otherwordly.

But hey don't listen to me.. I'm a slanted OPS driven robot who never watches baseball.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:36 PM
Feel free to elaborate. I'm curious.

Who wins a baseball game?? Whoever scores more runs. You don't get bonus points for having more runners on base, more hits, or more walks. You score 1 more run than your opposition you win. Pretty simple.

pedro
06-05-2006, 01:36 PM
Too bad that a perfectly good thread had to hijacked by people intent on merely bashing Dunn. Shame really.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:36 PM
I'm I understand the usefulness of OPS as a tool for evaluating production, but I think the RBI still has a place of relevance in this discussion.

The RBI is not a stat independent of other factors--namely, a player with high RBI totals depends on the players immediately proceeding him in the lineup getting on base. Whether or not they do is completely out of the player's control. Thus, RBI totals are not a good statistic to be used when evaluating the overall offensive potency of a particular player.

As an aside, Dunn has led the Reds in RBI for the last five years, so even making the assumption that RBIs are a good evaluator of talent, Dunn would be at the top of the class.

guttle11
06-05-2006, 01:37 PM
Too bad that a perfectly good thread had to hijacked by people intent on merely bashing Dunn. Shame really.

Don't be like that. Both sides took this thread down.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:37 PM
Maybe you can apologize for Dunn having the worst HR/RBI ratio in the NL. No one who has hit over three homers in the NL this year has a worse percentage.

Maybe you can apologize for Dunn being horrible defensively at two positions.

Maybe you could apologize for Dunn striking out 40% of the time with runners on and having an OPS of 241 points less than when he's batting with the bases empty.
Yeah I apologize for this seasons transgressions, let's check back on those points in August though.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:39 PM
Yes, but how many more could there be without the K's???

I think this is the heart of the discussion right here--Dunn simply isn't great enough for some people's tastes. Of course Dunn could improve--but so could Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Mays, Rose and ARod. People are so concentrated on finding the faults in Adam's game that they overlook how truly good he is.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:39 PM
Don't be like that. Both sides took this thread down.

How?

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:39 PM
But hey don't listen to me.. I'm a slanted OPS driven robot who never watches baseball.
Hey... you said it, not me... (joking)

You must admit that there is something to all of the complaints about his game... this is not all just some massive left-wing media conspiracy to drag all Texas boys down.

Your arguments are just more quantifiable than mine.

That's why I'm glad the games we both watch are played on dirt and grass and not in computers. (joking again)

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:39 PM
Too bad that a perfectly good thread had to hijacked by people intent on merely bashing Dunn. Shame really.

If people wouldn't get so danged defensive everytime something negative is said about Dunn it wouldn't turn all these threads this way. But, its impossible around here to be critical of someone without everyone getting defensive unless that player's name is Aurilla, Womack, Reggie Taylor, etc.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 01:40 PM
You don't get bonus points for having more runners on base, more hits, or more walks.

But you DO get more runs. It's funny how that works.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:42 PM
But you DO get more runs. It's funny how that works.

Maybe, maybe you don't if you look at the boxscore and see team LOB 15.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:42 PM
You must admit that there is something too all of the complaints about his game... this is not all just some massive left-wing media conspiracy to drag all Texas boys down.Of course there is, with his size there's a bound to be many issues about his grace and with his body type there is a chance he'll be dust by 33 too. But I'm an older fan and I've heard all the same complaints about other great players.

Nature of the beast.

guttle11
06-05-2006, 01:42 PM
How?

By constantly waving and flaunting stats. The anti-Dunn crowd isn't going to listen. They don't want to. Let them be like that. Don't get the ego and try to prove yourself right 150 times. The vast majority of us knew you're right even before you posted stats. (You in a general term, not just registerthis.)

Why are some people always at fault while others aren't? It takes a village...

rdiersin
06-05-2006, 01:44 PM
Who wins a baseball game?? Whoever scores more runs. You don't get bonus points for having more runners on base, more hits, or more walks. You score 1 more run than your opposition you win. Pretty simple.

It does seem that you are creating a almost double standard, almost like a hitters job is to drive in runs, but the runs that he scores gets lost in the process? Dunn has over 100 runs scored and runs driven in. Those are runs, no matter how you attribute them that he had a hand in.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:44 PM
Of course there is, with his size there's a bound to be many issues about his grace and with his body type there is a chance he'll be dust by 33 too. But I'm an older fan and I've heard all the same complaints about other great players.

Nature of the beast.
Now... I don't get this... what do his size, body type, or grace have to do with his K's???

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:45 PM
Now... I don't get this... what do his size, body type, or grace have to do with his K's???
I don't give a crap about K's

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:45 PM
It does seem that you are creating a almost double standard, almost like a hitters job is to drive in runs, but the runs that he scores gets lost in the process? Dunn has over 100 runs scored and runs driven in. Those are runs, no matter how you attribute them that he had a hand in.

Then Dunn needs to change his role on the team and learn how to run bases and bat lead off. You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs. His job is to drive in runs, not walk and strikout with runners on second and third.

pedro
06-05-2006, 01:46 PM
By constantly waving and flaunting stats. The anti-Dunn crowd isn't going to listen. They don't want to. Let them be like that. Don't get the ego and try to prove yourself right 150 times. The vast majority of us now you're right even before you posted stats. (You in a general term, not just registerthis.)

Why are some people always at fault while others aren't? It takes a village...

I'm honestly not sure how you can quantify the merits of an opinion in a thread like this without using stats. If people want to pop off nonsense without having any credible evidence to back up their opinions to they'll get what they deserve.

And really, it's largely been one poster who's taken this off track IMO.

Shaggy Sanchez
06-05-2006, 01:46 PM
Not to get off topic here or anyhting but I would take Cabrera, Texiera, and maybe Sizemore and Bay.

I also saw that we were talking about productive outs and strike outs, I would like to point out that there is one instance where a strike out is a productive out. Any time there is a man on first and Sean Casey is batting a strike out could be considered a productive out.:D

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 01:46 PM
I don't give a crap about K's
Ugh... I really don't like that way of thinking.

rdiersin
06-05-2006, 01:48 PM
Then Dunn needs to change his role on the team and learn how to run bases and bat lead off. You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs. His job is to drive in runs, not walk and strikout with runners on second and third.

But you said a game is played in runs. Meaning you know, that one team has to score more than the other. So a hitter needs to drive in runs, but not be on base to score them?

Seems to me both are important, and Dunn does both well.

BRM
06-05-2006, 01:50 PM
How many other players in MLB get routinely bashed by their own fanbase for "failing to drive in runs" while leading their team in RBI every year? It has to be a short list.

Handofdeath
06-05-2006, 01:51 PM
Yeah I apologize for this seasons transgressions, let's check back on those points in August though.

I look forward to that. Especially since his OPS drops over 70 points after the All-Star break during his career

Betterread
06-05-2006, 01:51 PM
Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23) - this is close - they are different players, but I have to take Dunn - because of his power and ability to get on base.
Grady Sizemore (24) - I like Sizemore, and he may turn into a great one, but right now it is insulting to compare him to Dunn
Mark Teixeira (26) - He is a similiar player to Dunn, but while they both get on base and have similiar power (Dunn has the slight advantage here), Tex is a far superior hitter so I rate him as a little better player.
Jason Bay (27) - He has been better than Dunn the last two years, but he is a few years older than Dunn, so I take Dunn for the long haul.
Kevin Mench (28) - Good list except for Mench and Overbay.
Carlos Lee (29) - Dunn is better.
Pat Burrell (29) - Very good ballplayer, who I think has reached his peak (past tense). Dunn is better.
Lyle Overbay (29) - see above.
Carlos Beltran (29) - See Pat Burrell.
Vernon Wells (29) - Different player, much better fielder but not the same offensive impact - Dunn is better.
Alfonso Soriano (29) - I like Al, but Dunn is better.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 01:52 PM
I look forward to that. Especially since his OPS drops over 70 points after the All-Star break during his career
Yeah but last July he led MLB in the magic RBI stat for the month too.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 01:52 PM
But you said a game is played in runs. Meaning you know, that one team has to score more than the other. So a hitter needs to drive in runs, but not be on base to score them?

Seems to me both are important, and Dunn does both well.

Good points and I don't debate the fact that its good Dunn scores lots of runs even if half of them are self made runs. He is a pretty good hitter now. He has plenty of room to improve. If he makes just a few strides and say cut his K's from 200 to say I don't know 80 or so, think how much more productive he would be?? Think how many more runs he would score and how many more he would drive in. His strikeouts do nothing to help anyone.

pedro
06-05-2006, 01:52 PM
Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23) - this is close - they are different players, but I have to take Dunn - because of his power and ability to get on base.
Grady Sizemore (24) - I like Sizemore, and he may turn into a great one, but right now it is insulting to compare him to Dunn
Mark Teixeira (26) - He is a similiar player to Dunn, but while they both get on base and have similiar power (Dunn has the slight advantage here), Tex is a far superior hitter so I rate him as a little better player.
Jason Bay (27) - He has been better than Dunn the last two years, but he is a few years older than Dunn, so I take Dunn for the long haul.
Kevin Mench (28) - Good list except for Mench and Overbay.
Carlos Lee (29) - Dunn is better.
Pat Burrell (29) - Very good ballplayer, who I think has reached his peak. Dunn is better.
Lyle Overbay (29) - see above.
Carlos Beltran (29) - See Pat Burrell.
Vernon Wells (29) - Different player, much better fielder but not the same offensive impact - Dunn is better.
Alfonso Soriano (29) - I like Al, but Dunn is better.


Texiera is a really good first baseman too.

Handofdeath
06-05-2006, 01:58 PM
Yeah but last July he led MLB in the magic RBI stat for the month too.

Yes and then slugged .411 in August. Some of us are just never going to agree on this. No hard feelings though.

rdiersin
06-05-2006, 02:00 PM
If he makes just a few strides and say cut his K's from 200 to say I don't know 80 or so, think how much more productive he would be?? Think how many more runs he would score and how many more he would drive in. His strikeouts do nothing to help anyone.

But see that might be a problem. One, he's never going to strikeout only 80 times, that's just not going to happen, that's a big jump. The other part is that strikeouts are a by-product of big power, outside of a few freakish players like Pujols, that is. I mean isolated power has a good correlation with strikeouts, meaning that the majority of power hitters are going to strikeout. Its just takes some kind of acceptance of it. I'm not saying Adam Dunn is not a frustrating player to watch, because he can be at least to me, but don't let that frustration lose sight of what he does well, because he does a lot well.

PTI (pti)
06-05-2006, 02:02 PM
I'm sorry, but (at the risk of pissing off Bill James) I'm willing to use my own two eyes to evaluate a baseball player's skills. Moneyball be damned, there are still professional scouts that make a living off watching at-bats, and not just crunching numbers.

I'm sorry, but I refuse to believe that batting average isn't important anymore, as long as you can draw a bunch of walks. Adam Dunn also has a higher career on-base % then David Ortiz. Anyone care to argue he's a more productive hitter? I don't.

Adam Dunn is a very good, productive hitter - I don't know anyone arguing that he isn't. But most of those guys on that list would add more total value to the Cincinnati Reds than Dunn. He strikes out waaaaaaay too much, isn't aggressive enough at the plate (none other than Chris Chambliss agrees with me, by the way), and is a huge defensive liability at the plate. Give me a 5-tool, .290-ba / 30-hr / 100-rbi guy over AD any day.



To say he's anywhere *near* as productive as Soriano, Lee, Cabrera, Teixeira, etc is foolish, imo. I'm REALLY not trying to diss Dunn, because I really like him - but those 4 in particular are elite, dominant players. Dunn has too many holes in his game right now to be on that level.

RFS62
06-05-2006, 02:03 PM
This thread started out with an interesting question.

It came out of the gate like Secretariat, but it's crossing the line like Mr. Ed.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 02:03 PM
But see that might be a problem. One, he's never going to strikeout only 80 times, that's just not going to happen, that's a big jump. The other part is that strikeouts are a by-product of big power, outside of a few freakish players like Pujols, that is. I mean isolated power has a good correlation with strikeouts, meaning that the majority of power hitters are going to strikeout. Its just takes some kind of acceptance of it. I'm not saying Adam Dunn is not a frustrating player to watch, because he can be at least to me, but don't let that frustration lose sight of what he does well, because he does a lot well.

Right, but at the same time there is always room for improvement. Just because you point on things a player doesn't do well or could do better doesn't mean you hate the guy and pray for him to K in every key situation. I certainly hope Dunn hasn't reached his peak at 26 and I don't think he has.

westofyou
06-05-2006, 02:04 PM
Yes and then slugged .411 in August. Some of us are just never going to agree on this. No hard feelings though.
That's ok, Joe Morgan used to wane too.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:08 PM
I would like to point out, for the record, that I can not be blamed for this thread.

Thanks,

Raisor

pedro
06-05-2006, 02:09 PM
To say he's anywhere *near* as productive as Soriano, Lee, Cabrera, Teixeira, etc is foolish, imo. I'm REALLY not trying to diss Dunn, because I really like him - but those 4 in particular are elite, dominant players. Dunn has too many holes in his game right now to be on that level.

I think solid arguments can be made Cabrera, Texeira, and Jason Bay, who you've left out, but if you take a look at the career stats of Soriano and Lee, it's really hard to make a case that they are elite, dominate players, especially Lee, and especially considering that they are both poor in the field.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 02:09 PM
Dunn has too many holes in his game right now to be on that level.
He isn't the best player in the league, or as good as some of the players you mentioned. He's also only 26, coming into his prime. He has holes in his game, and every 26 year old does. Most players at that age are not at his level (with a few exeptions of course). When he comes into his prime in the next year or two, he will be an elite player. What he has done well at a young age is great, but what he will do will be even better.

Falls City Beer
06-05-2006, 02:11 PM
Cabrera.

Bay is close, but I like Dunn's lefthandedness. So no.

Roy Tucker
06-05-2006, 02:15 PM
Adam Dunn or Superman

Adam Dunn or Batman

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:15 PM
I would like to point out, for the record, that I can not be blamed for this thread.

Thanks,

Raisor
Blame me... I'm used to it. Plus it's actually true.

savafan
06-05-2006, 02:16 PM
After thinking about this question more, I'm still going to say none of the above. Cabrera is the only one I'd consider, but everytime I've seen him play, his defense looks like a t-ball player. Now, I could just be seeing him on his off days, and I've seen Dunn on a few off days, but I still like Dunn's defense when compared to Cabrera's.

K-GAR
06-05-2006, 02:17 PM
I'm sorry, but (at the risk of pissing off Bill James) I'm willing to use my own two eyes to evaluate a baseball player's skills. Moneyball be damned, there are still professional scouts that make a living off watching at-bats, and not just crunching numbers.

I'm sorry, but I refuse to believe that batting average isn't important anymore, as long as you can draw a bunch of walks. Adam Dunn also has a higher career on-base % then David Ortiz. Anyone care to argue he's a more productive hitter? I don't.

Adam Dunn is a very good, productive hitter - I don't know anyone arguing that he isn't. But most of those guys on that list would add more total value to the Cincinnati Reds than Dunn. He strikes out waaaaaaay too much, isn't aggressive enough at the plate (none other than Chris Chambliss agrees with me, by the way), and is a huge defensive liability at the plate. Give me a 5-tool, .290-ba / 30-hr / 100-rbi guy over AD any day.



To say he's anywhere *near* as productive as Soriano, Lee, Cabrera, Teixeira, etc is foolish, imo. I'm REALLY not trying to diss Dunn, because I really like him - but those 4 in particular are elite, dominant players. Dunn has too many holes in his game right now to be on that level.

this is spot on IMO. Dunn does some great things, but a great player he is not, just too many holes in what he does. I would love to see what happened if he were aggressive at the plate, with his power he could easily add 10+ doubles and 10+ homers per year if he did, so what if his OBP took a 20-30 % knock, the other added dimensions he'd bring being aggresive would far out weigh the negatives, he just takes way too many strikes.

pedro
06-05-2006, 02:18 PM
Blame me... I'm used to it. Plus it's actually true.

I had someone else in mind, but it's nice of you to step up to the plate.

KronoRed
06-05-2006, 02:19 PM
If he were more aggressive he would strike out more and walk less, no thanks

Dunn is a fine player now, one of the best around..we're lucky to have him on our fav team.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:19 PM
I had someone else in mind, but it's nice of you to step up to the plate.
What was it Bill Cosby said about an only child? If they start to blame someone else, you have to take them away.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:19 PM
I would love to see what happened if he were aggressive at the plate, .

See: Dunn, Adam-2003

Falls City Beer
06-05-2006, 02:19 PM
BTW, I have a very strong feeling that Dunn's going to have a monster set of "hot months" (June, July, and August); I say this because he typically does--fancy that.

pedro
06-05-2006, 02:20 PM
this is spot on IMO. Dunn does some great things, but a great player he is not, just too many holes in what he does. I would love to see what happened if he were aggressive at the plate, with his power he could easily add 10+ doubles and 10+ homers per year if he did, so what if his OBP took a 20-30 % knock, the other added dimensions he'd bring being aggresive would far out weigh the negatives, he just takes way too many strikes.

I disagree completely. From my point of view Dunn's biggest problem is that he swings and misses too much. I just don't see how swinging more is going to help that. IMO he needs to work on making better contact when he does choose to swing. If he does that, then his numbers will surely go up, without the risk of his OBP going down, which is such a huge part of his game.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:22 PM
Then Dunn needs to change his role on the team and learn how to run bases and bat lead off. You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs. His job is to drive in runs, not walk and strikout with runners on second and third.


Dunn's "job" is the exact same job every other hitter has. Help his team create runs.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:23 PM
Dunn's "job" is the exact same job every other hitter has. Help his team create runs.
Mmmmm... it is a little bit more than that. They do put em in order (at least in the NL) for a reason.

Caveat Emperor
06-05-2006, 02:24 PM
Adam Dunn or Superman

Adam Dunn or Batman

Adam Dunn or Da Bears?

Da Bears, by 140 -- but only if Ditka puts in the backups at the end.

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 02:24 PM
...and on that scenario you're basing your evaluation of Dunn?

Do you know how many times Dunn has been up in the situation you provided? Hint: It's not that many.

This "productive out" thing is a smokescreen. Basically, people who bash DUnn for this are saying that, sure, he gets a lot of XBHs, sure he's great at avoiding outs, sure he knocks in a lot of runs and hits for power--but in the handful of times every year when Dunn comes to the plate when a "productive out" would be preferable to not making an out, he doesn't come through as often as I would like. Therefore, he sucks.

It's ridiculous.
it was an example. just like up with risp etc, i dont have the numbers, but just based on my bad memory, he isnt good at being a clutch hitter

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 02:28 PM
You may disagree, but you would be disagreeing with the facts. Adam has an OBP of nearly .390 each of the last two seasons, as well as over 100 walks each. His plate discipline is what has allowed him to be successful, up to this point in his career. A high strikeout total is not an indication of a lack of plate discipline, but a high walk total is.



This sounds suspiciously like one of those "I don't have statistics to back it up but I know its true" arguments. Hmmmm...
like he said, his obp isnt completely do to his discipline. its do to pitchers pitching around him. WATCH THE PLAYERS PLAY. dont just read stats on epsn.com. he takes WAY too many pitches he could hit and WAY to many 3rd strikes.

membengal
06-05-2006, 02:29 PM
Gosh, why ever would pitchers pitch around Adam Dunn....hmmmmm?

IowaRed
06-05-2006, 02:30 PM
Let's review the numbers from the last 2 years. Do you REALLY want this guy to change his approach at the plate?

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SBCS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2004 Cin 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .957
2005 Cin 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:32 PM
Mmmmm... it is a little bit more than that. They do put em in order (at least in the NL) for a reason.


Actually, there is no more to it then that. Batting order matters MUCH less then who is actually IN the lineup.

Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel have the exact same job. Create runs. They may do it in different ways, but they have the same job.

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 02:33 PM
ill try to do for past years when i have time, but so far this year.

dunn is 22nd in obp. of the 21 ahead of him.....

....10 had more than 32rbi's
....2 tied him with 32rbi's - dunn would be right in the middle
....9 had less than 32 rbi's

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 02:34 PM
Let's review the numbers from the last 2 years. Do you REALLY want this guy to change his approach at the plate?

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SBCS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2004 Cin 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .957
2005 Cin 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but more than that, i want him to learn what the word DEDICATION and the word WORK ETHIC mean.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:34 PM
Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel have the exact same job. Create runs. They may do it in different ways, but they have the same job.
Understood, but the way in which they do their job is at least in some way related to their order in the lineup.

IslandRed
06-05-2006, 02:35 PM
Mmmmm... it is a little bit more than that. They do put em in order (at least in the NL) for a reason.

Well, yes, it does a team good to do the best job of matching a hitter's skills with the lineup spot where they are put to best use. But -- as the lineup simulators have shown -- even if all the position players are in suboptimal slots, the total effect on a team's run-scoring isn't that large. Over a 162-game season, there's really not much difference in the sum of the situations each hitter will find himself in, outside of the NL dynamics in bracketing the pitcher's slot. And because of that, hitters' "jobs" or "roles" in the process of scoring runs are much more alike than different.

membengal
06-05-2006, 02:36 PM
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but more than that, i want him to learn what the word DEDICATION and the word WORK ETHIC mean.

Wow. And what, exactly, is your role with the club on a daily basis that allows you the insight necessary to make this kind of broad-based criticism?

KronoRed
06-05-2006, 02:37 PM
Let's review the numbers from the last 2 years. Do you REALLY want this guy to change his approach at the plate?

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SBCS AVG OBP SLG OPS

2004 Cin 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 108 195 6 1 .266 .388 .569 .957
2005 Cin 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927
The only number in there that gets people all mad about Dunn is bat avg, baseball fans are taught from birth that a "good" player hits .300 or close to it, anyone below that must suck and reasons must be found to prove as such.

And with Dunn it's entirely a waste of time, turn his bases empty walks into singles (exact same result) and he's in the upper .290's.

pedro
06-05-2006, 02:39 PM
like he said, his obp isnt completely do to his discipline. its do to pitchers pitching around him. WATCH THE PLAYERS PLAY. dont just read stats on epsn.com. he takes WAY too many pitches he could hit and WAY to many 3rd strikes.


enough of the argument that people who care about stats don't watch the games. Do you you have MLB Extra Innings and watch every game? I do.

saboforthird
06-05-2006, 02:41 PM
you mean besides leading the team in RBI's and Runs Scored and OBP every year and running up the opposing pitchers pitch counts and getting better pitches for those hitting around him because he's either on base or coming up?

Oh, so now we're comparing Dunn to his teammates? :confused: That's a first, hopefully the last time I hear that argument. The guy is horrible with RISP, and for all the plate discipline he has he doesn't get good production out of it. If you're going to compare Dunn to his teammates to support his cause, feel free to throw in a comparison of GABP's right field wall to the rest of the stadiums out there.

Newman4
06-05-2006, 02:41 PM
Before the thread gets closed, I'd like to answer the original question. I would only take Cabrera over Dunner.

By the way, as previously mentioned (understatement of the century), Dunn hits lots of home runs and walks a lot and strikes out a lot.

Just for fun, I looked up Dunn and Pujols 2005 numbers. Both have about the same number of doubles, triples, home runs with Pujols leading with more at bats. What's the difference in the two players? Even with Dunn walking at a higher rate, Pujols gets on base more and has a higher slugging pct, thus higher OPS. This is where batting average may be important. If his batting average increases then both OBP and SLG increase. I guess it's the difference in being really good or rivaling the best. If he could cut down on the Ks and raise his batting average then his numbers would be as good or better than Pujols. If Dunn makes contact more often, good things tend to happen. The man only grounded into 6 DP last year and hits the ball in the air more often than on the ground. As strong as Dunner is, I can't see how the guy making contact is worse than him striking out considering 2 out of every 7 hits is a home run and over half of his hits are for extra bases. If he makes contact it finds holes as strong as he is.

SEASON TEAM G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2005 StL 161 591 129 195 38 2 41 117 97 65 16 2 .330 .430.609 1.039 2005 Cin 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 114 168 4 2 .247 .387 .540 .927

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:41 PM
Well, yes, it does a team good to do the best job of matching a hitter's skills with the lineup spot where they are put to best use. But -- as the lineup simulators have shown -- even if all the position players are in suboptimal slots, the total effect on a team's run-scoring isn't that large. Over a 162-game season, there's really not much difference in the sum of the situations each hitter will find himself in, outside of the NL dynamics in bracketing the pitcher's slot. And because of that, hitters' "jobs" or "roles" in the process of scoring runs are much more alike than different.
Right... but there are situations that come up from time to time (once every two weeks) or more often, late in games, where you really want to make sure that lineup card is made out right. Once again :deadhorse

My bad.

saboforthird
06-05-2006, 02:43 PM
I think this is the heart of the discussion right here--Dunn simply isn't great enough for some people's tastes. Of course Dunn could improve--but so could Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Mays, Rose and ARod. People are so concentrated on finding the faults in Adam's game that they overlook how truly good he is.

It goes both ways. People can be so concentrated on finding the strengths in Adam's game that they attack every weakness any other comparable hitter (at position) has.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:44 PM
The only number in there that gets people all mad about Dunn is bat avg, baseball fans are taught from birth that a "good" player hits .300 or close to it, anyone below that must suck and reasons must be found to prove as such.
I don't like the number that's under SO.

I've learned not to care so much about BA and am trying to use it less in conversation with my more "casual" baseball fan friends.

Ltlabner
06-05-2006, 02:46 PM
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but more than that, i want him to learn what the word DEDICATION and the word WORK ETHIC mean.

I have said several times now that when the anti-Dunn crowd runs out of steam in their arguments, they invitably turn to soft arguments that usually involve how much he weighs, his percieved work eithic, how he walks back to the dougout, that he laughs and smiles while in the dougout, or that he just "looks" lazy. Arguments that they are certinally entitled to hold, but that are utterly unfounded and unable to be proven.



And with Dunn it's entirely a waste of time, turn his bases empty walks into singles (exact same result) and he's in the upper .290's.

Krono...great point. What's the difference if he gets on base via a single, BB or being hit by the pitch? The fact is, he's on base and is now in a position to score the all valuable run later on.

Then again, if he turned all his walks into singles, people wouldn't like him because his hair is too long and curly. He's one of those hippy types and people just don't care for that ya know.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:47 PM
I don't like the number that's under SO.

.


If you do everything else Dunn does, that SO number doesn't mean that much.

Check out the SO numbers under the Redsox when they won the series and with the Yanks the last year they won the series.

NewEraReds
06-05-2006, 02:47 PM
Oh, so now we're comparing Dunn to his teammates? :confused: That's a first, hopefully the last time I hear that argument. The guy is horrible with RISP, and for all the plate discipline he has he doesn't get good production out of it. If you're going to compare Dunn to his teammates to support his cause, feel free to throw in a comparison of GABP's left field wall to the rest of the stadium.
funny, in half that guys argument, i could have sworn he was talking about hatteberg and aurilia, who im sure he hates cause they dont hit hr's like big bad adam dunn ;)

pedro
06-05-2006, 02:48 PM
It goes both ways. People can be so concentrated on finding the strengths in Adam's game that they attack every weakness any other comparable hitter (at position) has.

Now we're comparing Adam Dunn to other players? I hope that's the last time I hear that argument, we might as well compare you to a .......

RedsManRick
06-05-2006, 02:49 PM
Dunn is the second best player at his age all-time. The only player better than him is Albert Pujols. I'll stick with Dunn, even over Cabrera.

Ken Griffey Jr?

Alex Rodriguez?

Ted Williams? (.406/.553/.735 when he was 22)

Frank Robinson?

Jimmie Foxx? (.364/.469/.749, 58 homers when he was 24)

Willie Mays?

Hank Aaron?

Dunner has had a very nice start to his career, but he doesn't really belong in the same coversation with some of these guys, or Pujols.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:49 PM
The guy is horrible with RISP, and for all the plate discipline he has he doesn't get good production out of it.


His batting average w/RISP is horrible, you mean.

We've been there, done that, bought the t-shirt.

RedsManRick
06-05-2006, 02:50 PM
Dunn is the second best player at his age all-time. The only player better than him is Albert Pujols. I'll stick with Dunn, even over Cabrera.

Ken Griffey Jr?

Alex Rodriguez?

Ted Williams? (.406/.553/.735 when he was 22)

Frank Robinson?

Jimmie Foxx? (.364/.469/.749, 58 homers when he was 24)

Willie Mays?

Hank Aaron?

Stan Musial?

Dunner has had a very nice start to his career, but he doesn't really belong in the same coversation with some of these guys, or Pujols.

membengal
06-05-2006, 02:50 PM
His batting average w/RISP is horrible, you mean.

We've been there, done that, bought the t-shirt.

I hate my Krispy T-shirt. It bled on its first wash and got everything else in that load pink.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 02:52 PM
If you do everything else Dunn does, that SO number doesn't mean that much.

Check out the SO numbers under the Redsox when they won the series and with the Yanks the last year they won the series.
Sarcasm warning: Can I check out their RBI numbers while I'm there???

Raisor
06-05-2006, 02:58 PM
Sarcasm warning: Can I check out their RBI numbers while I'm there???


You could check their shirt sizes for all I care.

BRM
06-05-2006, 03:01 PM
The 2004 Red Sox led the AL in K's w/RISP. Isn't that funny?

Roy Tucker
06-05-2006, 03:04 PM
(warning, this note based completely on anecdotal, half-baked, and non-numeric data)

I do worry about Dunn's dedication. Granted, the man puts up great OPS numbers and, judging against players at his age, is a great hitter. The Reds' offense would be in world of hurt without his bat in the lineup.

But I read enough about the Reds (and other teams) to get a feel for the apparent work ethic of a player. I read about all the extra BP that Junior puts in, that Lopez puts in, the hitting and conditioning ethics of Albert Pujols, etc. And about the only thing I've read about Dunn's work ethic is that he doesn't pick up a bat in the off-season. And by judging by Dunn's sack-of-potatos body, it doesn't look like he hits the gym all that hard.

I want Dunn to be great. I want Dunn to want to be great. I want to read articles about Dunn's work ethic, how he watches video, how he works out, how his off-season is dedicated to making himself a better player. I don't see that now. Fully granted that it may be because Dunn keeps it under covers, that I'm ill-informed, that I'm just a moron, etc etc.

But till I start to read about all the effort that Dunn puts into his game, I think there will be room for criticism about how his game could get better.

guttle11
06-05-2006, 03:05 PM
I remember when this thread was about comparing Adam Dunn to seemingly similar players. Now it's turned the 2004 Boston Red Sox.

Only on Reds Live...

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 03:05 PM
It's incredible, a player has two 100+ RBI years in a row, yet he doesn't drive in enough runs. His RBI's must not have been win-effective...

CTA513
06-05-2006, 03:06 PM
I would have never thought this thread would have turned out the way it has.

;)

:laugh:

BRM
06-05-2006, 03:07 PM
I remember when this thread was about comparing Adam Dunn to seemingly similar players. Now it's turned the 2004 Boston Red Sox.

Only on Reds Live...

Actually, it turned to Dunn's strikeouts which turned to run production which turned to the 2004 Red Sox. :)

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 03:07 PM
I remember when this thread was about comparing Adam Dunn to seemingly similar players. Now it's turned the 2004 Boston Red Sox.

Only on Reds Live...
Yeah, I really liked the original topic. It made for interesting disscusion at first, but went downhill fast (like all topics related to Dunn).

all well

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 03:08 PM
I would have never thought this thread would have turned out the way it has.

;)

:laugh:
Dunn is in the title, it was bound to happen, as usuall.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 03:09 PM
Then Dunn needs to change his role on the team and learn how to run bases and bat lead off. You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs.

I thought runs were the most important thing? I'm so confused. :help:

guttle11
06-05-2006, 03:09 PM
Dunn is in the title, it was bound to happen, as usuall.

Yep, neither side knows when to quit. It's really annoying.

BRM
06-05-2006, 03:11 PM
Yep, neither side knows when to quit. It's really annoying.

The guy's name is certainly a lightning rod around here.

RFS62
06-05-2006, 03:11 PM
(warning, this note based completely on anecdotal, half-baked, and non-numeric data)

I do worry about Dunn's dedication. Granted, the man puts up great OPS numbers and, judging against players at his age, is a great hitter. The Reds' offense would be in world of hurt without his bat in the lineup.

But I read enough about the Reds (and other teams) to get a feel for the apparent work ethic of a player. I read about all the extra BP that Junior puts in, that Lopez puts in, the hitting and conditioning ethics of Albert Pujols, etc. And about the only thing I've read about Dunn's work ethic is that he doesn't pick up a bat in the off-season. And by judging by Dunn's sack-of-potatos body, it doesn't look like he hits the gym all that hard.

I want Dunn to be great. I want Dunn to want to be great. I want to read articles about Dunn's work ethic, how he watches video, how he works out, how his off-season is dedicated to making himself a better player. I don't see that now. Fully granted that it may be because Dunn keeps it under covers, that I'm ill-informed, that I'm just a moron, etc etc.

But till I start to read about all the effort that Dunn puts into his game, I think there will be room for criticism about how his game could get better.



I have to agree with this. Especially regarding his defense.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 03:12 PM
You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs.Here's the quote of the day. Almost made me laugh out loud.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 03:13 PM
Yeah, I'm not sure where that came from.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 03:14 PM
WATCH THE PLAYERS PLAY.

I'm curious as to how you think you know that I don't "watch the players play." I love it when an argument goes in this direction--stats and facts are pointed out, and the retort is that said stat-posting person must not "watch the game." Please. I'd venture that i watch as many, if not more, Reds games than you, but that's completely irrelevant to his discussion.

Ltlabner
06-05-2006, 03:15 PM
What's funny is that there are a whole host of other threads on Reds Live, almost all of which are devoid of any mention of Dunn yet those are suprisingly quiet right now. This thread gets 195 responces in a short period of time, yet how many of these other threads are getting your consideration and posts?

It's our board and we can make it great or beat each others brains out with OPS and RBI and such. I'm sorry to get on a soapbox and preach, but when people moan about "another Dunn thread" , or jump on yet another boring "George Grande sucks" thread all while ignorning a host of other far more interesting threads, I don't have much sympathy for them.

pedro
06-05-2006, 03:16 PM
I have to agree with this. Especially regarding his defense.


I do too, even though I am apparently incapable of a negative thought about him.

RFS62
06-05-2006, 03:17 PM
You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs.


That may well be the nuttiest thing I've ever read here.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 03:18 PM
I do too, even though I am apparently incapable of a negative thought about him.


Where's Lanscaster when you need him? This is exactly what we need him for.

Raisor
06-05-2006, 03:19 PM
That may well be the nuttiest thing I've ever read here.


Which is saying something :evil:

registerthis
06-05-2006, 03:20 PM
That may well be the nuttiest thing I've ever read here.

Scoring runs is the most important thing a player can do, but we don't pay Adam to do that. We pay him to drive *in* runs, not score them. If he hits anything less than a HR, we'd prefer that he quietly excuse himself from the basepaths.

deltachi8
06-05-2006, 03:20 PM
Only on Reds Live...

Of course, all those high and mighty wouldnt subject themselves to such debate!

:evil:


Even though much of the debate has been done before (no pun intended) its been an interesting read

Jpup
06-05-2006, 03:20 PM
Adam Dunn or Jake Peavy.:)

I would rather have Dunn than anyone on the original list in the first post.

Roy Tucker
06-05-2006, 03:22 PM
I do too, even though I am apparently incapable of a negative thought about him.
Pedro, I just shot Diet Pepsi out my nostrils. Thanks.

Highlifeman21
06-05-2006, 03:25 PM
Again, it seems to come down to Dunn gettins walks and homeruns. What else does the guy do for the team, in terms of production?
Adam had to be TOLD to hit to all parts of the field, AFTER seeing a shift on him for God knows how long. Great hitters don't need this sort of instruction at this level of play. Tweaks in the mechanics of hitting, maybe, but not instruction on the fundamentals of offense.

When he DOES get on base (when he's not striking out or walking), there isn't much behind him to drive him in, but the worst part is he can't help himself on the bases. I remember hearing a year (maybe two years ago) that Dunn "has a lot of speed for someone his size". If this is true, why isn't he attempting stolen bases?
There are a lot of reasons to go after some of those other players listed, not counting the above-mentioned reasons (and those listed by other posters in this thread).

(Y) Miguel Cabrera (23) - freaky talent, young
(N) Grady Sizemore (24) - would be a quality leadoff hitter, though
(Y) Mark Teixeira (26) - a lot like Cabrera
(Y) Jason Bay (27) - pretty close to Bay, IMO
(N) Kevin Mench (28) - slugger
(N) Carlos Lee (29) - injuries
(N) Pat Burrell (29) - slugger
(Y) Lyle Overbay (29) - not sure
(N) Carlos Beltran (29) - flash in the pan
(Y) Vernon Wells (29) - enough said about his fielding
(Y) Alfonso Soriano (29) - maybe best all-around athlete in the bunch

And you continue to be off base in this topic as well.

1. Walks and HR = production

2. You really believe Dunn had to be told to hit to all fields? He has fine fundamentals on offense, or else he wouldn't be one of our largest contributors annually.

3. Dunn's job is to get on base. Sometimes he drives himself in with the longball, but getting on base and not making outs is his primary goal.

4. You really want Adam Dunn trying to steal bases? Last time I checked, he's not a consistent SB threat. Ryan Freel he's not. And we don't want him to be Ryan Freel. We want him to be Adam Dunn.

5. Best all around athlete of that bunch? Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran and Vernon Wells say hi.

2001MUgrad
06-05-2006, 03:28 PM
Here's the quote of the day. Almost made me laugh out loud.

Thats so annoying. If you are going to quote someone quote the whole thing, don't take what you want out of context and forget the rest of what was put.

Highlifeman21
06-05-2006, 03:29 PM
Maybe you can apologize for Dunn having the worst HR/RBI ratio in the NL. No one who has hit over three homers in the NL this year has a worse percentage.

Maybe you can apologize for Dunn being horrible defensively at two positions.

Maybe you could apologize for Dunn striking out 40% of the time with runners on and having an OPS of 241 points less than when he's batting with the bases empty.


Dunn actually has good defensive metrics @ 1B. LF, yes, he's in the Manny Ramirez universe.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 03:33 PM
Thats so annoying. If you are going to quote someone quote the whole thing, don't take what you want out of context and forget the rest of what was put.


Then Dunn needs to change his role on the team and learn how to run bases and bat lead off. You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs. His job is to drive in runs, not walk and strikout with runners on second and third.

I just quoted the whole thing, and it still doesn't make any sense to me. :confused:

REDREAD
06-05-2006, 03:34 PM
Sizemore and Cabera, I would do that in a heartbeat.

I'd need to think about a couple of the others. I might do Bay as well.

REDREAD
06-05-2006, 03:36 PM
Here's the quote of the day. Almost made me laugh out loud.

Let's try to be respectful of other people's opinions, even if you don't agree with them. That wasn't a polite response.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 03:37 PM
Thats so annoying. If you are going to quote someone quote the whole thing, don't take what you want out of context and forget the rest of what was put.
Sorry
Here's the whole post...

Then Dunn needs to change his role on the team and learn how to run bases and bat lead off. You don't pay someone the kind of money Dunn is making to score runs. His job is to drive in runs, not walk and strikout with runners on second and third.His arguement was that he is paid to drive in runs, not score them. It seemed like scoring runs is a bad thing. I doubt you can find anywhere in his contract that he is paid to drive in runs.

Redhook
06-05-2006, 03:37 PM
Dunn actually has good defensive metrics @ 1B. LF, yes, he's in the Manny Ramirez universe.

As bad as Dunn has been in left field, I would prefer to keep him there. I don't want him at first base. He doesn't need to be at a position that touches the ball 1500-2000 times. He's not good in left, but I think he'd blow more games at first.

Redhook
06-05-2006, 03:41 PM
Remember to play nice!!!

Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)



I'd take Cabrera, Sizemore, Teixeira, and Bay. Beltran and Soriano are maybe's.

VR
06-05-2006, 03:50 PM
(warning, this note based completely on anecdotal, half-baked, and non-numeric data)

I do worry about Dunn's dedication. Granted, the man puts up great OPS numbers and, judging against players at his age, is a great hitter. The Reds' offense would be in world of hurt without his bat in the lineup.

But I read enough about the Reds (and other teams) to get a feel for the apparent work ethic of a player. I read about all the extra BP that Junior puts in, that Lopez puts in, the hitting and conditioning ethics of Albert Pujols, etc. And about the only thing I've read about Dunn's work ethic is that he doesn't pick up a bat in the off-season. And by judging by Dunn's sack-of-potatos body, it doesn't look like he hits the gym all that hard.

I want Dunn to be great. I want Dunn to want to be great. I want to read articles about Dunn's work ethic, how he watches video, how he works out, how his off-season is dedicated to making himself a better player. I don't see that now. Fully granted that it may be because Dunn keeps it under covers, that I'm ill-informed, that I'm just a moron, etc etc.

But till I start to read about all the effort that Dunn puts into his game, I think there will be room for criticism about how his game could get better.

Great points.

I love Adam Dunn, but I love his potential even more. Because a player has been a gifted athlete and strong performer throughout their sports life, they may be a bit more complacent than the next guy...it's easy to be content.

I think the biggest difference between he and Albert (and I do think Adam has much more potential, so I have no problem comparing the two) has been not only their reported 'work ethics' but their ability to adjust based on the count. Perhaps the two aren't separate issues.

Adam is spectacular when ahead in the count, but horrendous when behind.

IF Adam can alter his approach slightly when in the hole at the plate
(0-2 or 0-1) I think he becomes the uber-player we all expect him to be.


A bit of data from the last three years to sprinkle in....


after 0-2
Pujols
282 abs
63 k's
.699 ops

Dunn
118 abs
82 k's
.338 ops

after 1-2

Pujols
390abs
97 k's
.798 ops

Dunn
216 ab's
132 k's
.295 ops

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 03:51 PM
Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)

Another guy simillar to this list is Andruw Jones (29). He is a better defender than Wells even, and has a lot more power. If it wasn't for his age (29 years) I'd almost take him over Dunn.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 03:53 PM
Another guy simillar to this list is Andruw Jones (29). He is a better defender than Wells even, and has a lot more power. If it wasn't for his age (29 years) I'd almost take him over Dunn.
I assumed he was 30+ or I would have added him. (We all know what you get when you assume.) Thanks!

IslandRed
06-05-2006, 03:54 PM
I just quoted the whole thing, and it still doesn't make any sense to me. :confused:

Well, it makes sense to me, not that I agree with it. Baseball-think has always assigned a higher value to the RBI than the Run Scored. Doesn't make much sense to me, because on a team level (it is a team sport, right?), one can't exist without the other. Yet for some reason, driving in 100 runs has always been a lauded benchmark while scoring 100 runs is largely ignored. They're the same runs.

That's why I'm usually against blanket pronouncements about a player's "role." Good offensive players help their teams score runs, and whether it's being a good RBI man or being on base all the time or a combination of both doesn't particularly concern me, just so the runs get on the board for the Reds.

pedro
06-05-2006, 03:58 PM
Another guy simillar to this list is Andruw Jones (29). He is a better defender than Wells even, and has a lot more power. If it wasn't for his age (29 years) I'd almost take him over Dunn.

Best CF I've ever had the pleasure to watch. I watched a ton of Braves games when i lived there and the guy is truly amazing defensively and has put steady, if not spectacular, offensive numbers. I really think he draws and interesting comparison to Dunn because a good number of Braves fans freak out about his K's and lack of clutch (supposed) and his failure to meet their expectations.

MississippiRed
06-05-2006, 04:07 PM
He's not on this list, but I would consider trading Dunn for Ryan Howard. He's the same age, but with only 550 or so at bats. He will probably hit over 50 HRs this year with an OPS around .960.

pedro
06-05-2006, 04:11 PM
He's not on this list, but I would consider trading Dunn for Ryan Howard. He's the same age, but with only 550 or so at bats. He will probably hit over 50 HRs this year with an OPS around .960.

Good call. While I'm not sure I'd do it, it is worthy of discussion.

He has a good rep defensively too, but he has made 8 errors at 1B this year, which surprised me. I like him a lot though.

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 04:14 PM
I didn't include David Wright, either because of low total ABs, but I'd think about him as well as Howard.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 04:14 PM
He's not on this list, but I would consider trading Dunn for Ryan Howard. He's the same age, but with only 550 or so at bats. He will probably hit over 50 HRs this year with an OPS around .960.
I would take him in a heartbeat. Power to all fields and a good glove. Pure goodness

pedro
06-05-2006, 04:16 PM
I didn't include David Wright, either because of low total ABs, but I'd think about him as well as Howard.

I agree there as well. He's a stud. I might take him over all the rest of those guys.

CaiGuy
06-05-2006, 04:18 PM
I didn't include David Wright, either because of low total ABs, but I'd think about him as well as Howard.
David Wright is the real deal, one of my favorite players.

BRM
06-05-2006, 04:20 PM
He's not on this list, but I would consider trading Dunn for Ryan Howard. He's the same age, but with only 550 or so at bats. He will probably hit over 50 HRs this year with an OPS around .960.

I like Ryan Howard quite a bit as well but he'd get the "Dunn" treatment on this board if he were a Red due to his high strikeout totals and low BA w/RISP.

pedro
06-05-2006, 04:33 PM
I like Ryan Howard quite a bit as well but he'd get the "Dunn" treatment on this board if he were a Red due to his high strikout totals and low BA w/RISP.


just looked at his splits. you're right.

MississippiRed
06-05-2006, 04:51 PM
David Wright is the real deal, one of my favorite players.

As I read this, I was reminded of an ESPN2 article I had read a while back on the 50 most valuable players. This guy too thinks highly of David Wright, as does SI in an article from last week or the week before. He also thinks highly of Adam Dunn, the only Red mentioned. Texiera, Cabrera, Wright, Bay, and Sizemore are the ones listed ahead of Dunn (#19 on the list).

Here is a link to the ESPN2 article (apologies if this has been discussed previously, I haven't been on the board that long):

ESPN2 Article (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=silver/060418)

RedsFan8978
06-05-2006, 04:54 PM
Cabrera's the only one I'd take over Dunn (from that list)

Caveat Emperor
06-05-2006, 04:55 PM
I like Ryan Howard quite a bit as well but he'd get the "Dunn" treatment on this board if he were a Red due to his high strikout totals and low BA w/RISP.

With rare exception, every player has a wart somewhere. The only question, in my mind, is whether or not the upside outweights the down.

There's no sense in focusing on the bad when there's so much good to be had. Its like lynching Nolan Ryan for walking too many batters.

Sea Ray
06-05-2006, 04:57 PM
I know that a lot of the conversation (both good and bad) on this board circulates around Adam Dunn. I wanted to get a feel for how strongly some of us feel about Adam Dunn with a little game I call Adam Dunn or _____? The premise is simple... would you rather have Adam Dunn or ____? I've not done any statistical analysis or high-level mathematics. Do such calculations if you wish. I've compiled a list of OF/1B of similar age (under 30) and at least 1000 Major League AB's.

Remember to play nice!!!

Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)

I do not intend this to be a Dunn-bash... just want to see how objective some of us are.

Where's Albert Pujols on this list?

Puffy
06-05-2006, 04:59 PM
With rare exception, every player has a wart somewhere. The only question, in my mind, is whether or not the upside outweights the down.

There's no sense in focusing on the bad when there's so much good to be had. Its like lynching Nolan Ryan for walking too many batters.

Not every player. Need I remind you of Jim Coombs??

dabvu2498
06-05-2006, 05:09 PM
Where's Albert Pujols on this list?
I assumed that most everyone would prefer Pujols.

Plus, he may be 105 years old.

Johnny Footstool
06-05-2006, 05:14 PM
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but more than that, i want him to learn what the word DEDICATION and the word WORK ETHIC mean.

WORK ETHIC is two words. Just sayin'. ;)

As for the list, I'd take the first four: Sizemore, Cabrera, Bay, and Teixeira (Sizemore because the Reds could use a CF). The others on the list are too old and too expensive right now.

Sea Ray
06-05-2006, 05:21 PM
I assumed that most everyone would prefer Pujols.

Plus, he may be 105 years old.

All right. I was just wondering if the list was "pre-edited" or not. That answered my question.

I think the Pujols comparison is significant as they both were in A Ball (Midwest League) at the same time. Pujols won the MVP that year but Dunn got votes too. So they really are identical in terms of professional service time.

BoydsOfSummer
06-05-2006, 05:33 PM
i wish we had jonny gomes. we could bash he and dunn on alternate days. wouldn't that be fun?

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2006, 05:34 PM
i wish we had jonny gomes. we could bash he and dunn on alternate days. wouldn't that be fun?

I have man-love for Jonny Gomes.

Puffy
06-05-2006, 05:39 PM
I have man-love for Jonny Gomes.

So, I guess you could say "I love you Johnny Cakes" is relevant here, eh?

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2006, 05:57 PM
So, I guess you could say "I love you Johnny Cakes" is relevant here, eh?

You've been itching to use that one all day, eh? :D

KronoRed
06-05-2006, 06:16 PM
i wish we had jonny gomes. we could bash he and dunn on alternate days. wouldn't that be fun?
Marty's head would explode.

saboforthird
06-05-2006, 08:35 PM
And you continue to be off base in this topic as well. Please, stop.


1. Walks and HR = production

You're right, no one said Dunn wasn't productive. The original poster provided a list of players that folks here would like to have instead of Dunn, and I posted my list. ALL of the players in that list are "productive", too, just in their own right. Not everyone is enamored with Dunn.


2. You really believe Dunn had to be told to hit to all fields? He has fine fundamentals on offense, or else he wouldn't be one of our largest contributors annually.

I read that in an article, and I read it on this site, too. Please forgive me for believing anything anyone here says. Apparently Dunn needs to be told to hit the weightroom and pick up batting practice in the offseason, too.


3. Dunn's job is to get on base. Sometimes he drives himself in with the longball, but getting on base and not making outs is his primary goal.

Dunn's job is to drive in runners. He makes lots of out through his strikeouts. His fielding bring outs, too. I could care less about a player's "goals". If Dunn is on base, and if it's true that he has enough speed to steal bases, then attempting to steal bases would help tremendously. If Dunn gets to third with less than 2 outs, a sac fly scores him. If his job is to get on base, as you stated, then most assuredly his job isn't to stand there like a lump on a pickle.


4. You really want Adam Dunn trying to steal bases? Last time I checked, he's not a consistent SB threat. Ryan Freel he's not. And we don't want him to be Ryan Freel. We want him to be Adam Dunn.


Dunn has a 72% (41 of 57) success rate for his career in the big leagues, in the SB department. Not too bad, my friend. He's not Freel, but he's not Cecil Fielder, either. The guy can run.


5. Best all around athlete of that bunch? Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran and Vernon Wells say hi.

All subjective opinion, again. No reason to act snarky. Soriano is WELL KNOWN for his athleticism. He might not be faring well in the outfield, but he probably will. This is what, his first year out there? He was a pretty darn good second baseman/shortstop.

pedro
06-05-2006, 08:54 PM
He was a pretty darn good second baseman/shortstop.


He's played 10 games in the majors at SS and he's not a good second baseman at all.

deltachi8
06-05-2006, 09:13 PM
He's played 10 games in the majors at SS and he's not a good second baseman at all.

Werd...Soriano is spectacularly poor at 2b.

registerthis
06-05-2006, 11:58 PM
Werd...Soriano is spectacularly poor at 2b.

Defensively, the worst overall second baseman in the majors last year.

But his offense makes up for it, he's really raking right now.

SteelSD
06-06-2006, 01:12 AM
He's played 10 games in the majors at SS and he's not a good second baseman at all.

Yeah, that's a strange one because defense is being used to denigrate Dunn's value (as are his Stolen Base numbers, which I guess makes Pete Rose's 1975 season practically worthless):

Here are the players on the original list:

Player (age)
Miguel Cabrera (23)
Grady Sizemore (24)
Mark Teixeira (26)
Jason Bay (27)
Kevin Mench (28)
Carlos Lee (29)
Pat Burrell (29)
Lyle Overbay (29)
Carlos Beltran (29)
Vernon Wells (29)
Alfonso Soriano (29)

Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay and Kevin Mench don't resemble very good-level fielders at their positions and most on that list never have.

Overbay isn't anything resembling a superior offensive talent and really doesn't belong on that list. Vernon Wells' offensive game has played like Austin Kearns' offensive game over the past few seasons with the difference being that Wells has been healthy enough to prove his volatility but he and Sizemore are great examples of guys who may be long-term mid 2nd-tier Run value clones.

Speaking of volatile, we've got Carlos Beltran- who gets less respect than anyone else on that list, IMHO. Excepting 2005 (which happened so it can't actually be neglected), Beltran has been one of the best overall in baseball and he's doing it again. But he's also soon to move out of his age-prime years and that's vexing considering we've now seen his floor.

So we're left with Mark Teixeira. That's interesting because if we reduced the list to folks who are 26 years of age or younger, we'd still be left with Mark Teixeira. And that's a shame because the under-30 list should include Travis Hafner. And if we're including Soriano then we best include Michael Young as well. But the real travesty would to not include Chase Utley- particularly since we've been talking about players who aren't optimal defensively. Nick Johnson too. He's an injury waiting to happen, but man is he good when healthy.

But we do have a couple (or four) guys who should be included in the 26 and under crowd along with Teix- David Wright, Johnny Gomes, Ryan Howard, and Nick Swisher. Howard is a monster power talent who comes with decent plate discipline, but who doesn't have the same ceiling as Dunn and who hasn't been doing it as long. Gomes is a near-Dunn level talent who's going to frustrate the crap out of folks who don't understand how his game works. Hey, we could also work Brad Hawpe into the mix if anyone cares about how a Colorado hitter performs. Or what about that Joe Mauer kid in Minnesota? Word has it that he can catch too.

Right now in the 26-and-under crowd I'd rather have David Wright than Adam Dunn due to cost. Miguel Cabrera is real close as is a guy named Nick Swisher. And Swisher would be the preferable of the two due to cost as well. It's a very very very short list.

Highlifeman21
06-06-2006, 01:33 AM
Please, stop.



You're right, no one said Dunn wasn't productive. The original poster provided a list of players that folks here would like to have instead of Dunn, and I posted my list. ALL of the players in that list are "productive", too, just in their own right. Not everyone is enamored with Dunn.



I read that in an article, and I read it on this site, too. Please forgive me for believing anything anyone here says. Apparently Dunn needs to be told to hit the weightroom and pick up batting practice in the offseason, too.



Dunn's job is to drive in runners. He makes lots of out through his strikeouts. His fielding bring outs, too. I could care less about a player's "goals". If Dunn is on base, and if it's true that he has enough speed to steal bases, then attempting to steal bases would help tremendously. If Dunn gets to third with less than 2 outs, a sac fly scores him. If his job is to get on base, as you stated, then most assuredly his job isn't to stand there like a lump on a pickle.


Dunn has a 72% (41 of 57) success rate for his career in the big leagues, in the SB department. Not too bad, my friend. He's not Freel, but he's not Cecil Fielder, either. The guy can run.



All subjective opinion, again. No reason to act snarky. Soriano is WELL KNOWN for his athleticism. He might not be faring well in the outfield, but he probably will. This is what, his first year out there? He was a pretty darn good second baseman/shortstop.

1. This would definitely include you.

2. Wrong, on so many levels. Dunn's job is to not make outs, get on base, and collect bases while getting on base. By not making outs, he will produce runs, both his and those of others.

3. I don't know why so many people are hung up on Dunn and strikeouts. Why don't we just throw another Dave Kingman reference in here while we're at it?

4. Why do we want Dunn chancing making outs by trying to steal bases? Roughly 1 out of every 4 tries, per the stat you provided, Dunn is making an unnecessary out. There's no reason for this. Dunn is not a SB threat. He's an HR threat.

5. Why are you so in love with the sac fly? How many guys do you know that can play for the sac fly on command?

6. While Soriano has a career SB % of 78% which might suggest some athleticism, he is quite possibly one of the worst defensive 2B of all time, which goes directly against the notion of athleticism. He might have natural speed, which he's using to make up for his lack of a clue how to play LF, but he's not an intelligent baseball player as he doesn't know how to take or draw a walk, much less spell the word, and he has some of the worst hands defensively.

Realistically, who do you think is the most or best athletic player in the majors right now?