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View Full Version : how many more seasons will griffey play?



toledodan
06-07-2006, 03:32 PM
was listening to the pre game show on fox last night and they did a piece with JR. he mentioned that his kids want him to play 7 more seasons. i think he is in good enough shape to play into his early fourtys if he can stay away from the MAJOR INJURY. we must remember that over the last 4 years he hasn't played much which has allowed him to heal other nagging problems. watching him go from first to home last night scared me but also gave me confidence he's finally 100%.


comments?

RedsMan3203
06-07-2006, 03:34 PM
From 1st to 3rd almost gave my heart flutters... Seeing him round 3rd and take off home I about died.....

I want JR to play as long as he wants to play... He knows when his time to go is.... But... I'd LOVE to see Bonds retire this year... Not get the Record and JR keeps playing and break the record... Or atleast get #2 on the list... Leaveing Aaron at number 1.

reds44
06-07-2006, 03:35 PM
If he plays 7 years, he will break Aaron's record.

flyer85
06-07-2006, 03:35 PM
with Cincinnati, the answer is two

flyer85
06-07-2006, 03:36 PM
If he plays 7 years, he will break Aaron's record.I'd say that's highly questionable given his health record since 2000 and factoring in the generally rapid skill decline in the late 30s and early 40s.

smith288
06-07-2006, 03:41 PM
If he plays 7 years, he will break Aaron's record.
All he would need to do is avg 30 hr a year here on out for 7 years to reach Aaron.

755-546/7=29.85

Unless my math sucks which is ALWAYS entirely possible.

flyer85
06-07-2006, 03:43 PM
All he would need to do is avg 30 hr a year here on out for 7 years to reach Aaron.

755-546/7=29.85in the 5 years prior to this season he has averaged only 19+ HRs per season (98 HR in 2001-2005). Jr would need a miracle to make a run at Aaron.

smith288
06-07-2006, 03:51 PM
in the 5 years prior to this season he has averaged only 19+ HRs per season (98 HR in 2001-2005). Jr would need a miracle to make a run at Aaron.
Not a miracle, he would need better luck...all his injuries seem to be just plain dumb luck.

jimbo
06-07-2006, 03:52 PM
At this point, I can't see Griffey making any kind of run at Aaron. I also can't see Griffey playing beyond the point where he can no longer play at the level he expects of himself. You won't see Junior limping around on the field going after a record like you see with Bonds.

My guess is that he plays for 3 more seasons.

flyer85
06-07-2006, 03:57 PM
Not a miracle, he would need better luck...all his injuries seem to be just plain dumb luck.bad luck or not it usually only gets worse with age. I think it was more to do with the wear and tear on an aging body that had spent 11 years pounding on the astroturf.

KronoRed
06-07-2006, 05:31 PM
2 1/2 more, his legs will be barking at him by then and he'll hang it up.

20 years in the big leagues isn't bad.

vic715
06-07-2006, 05:38 PM
in 1970 at age 36 Aaron had 554 and needed to Average 40 hrs a season for the next 4 yeaers to catch Ruth. I thought like many others that there was no way.Well he did it coming up only one short in those 4 years. Jr is 18 hrs behind Aarons pace right now so it will take at least 5-7 years to do it. I don't think he'll do it but I'd love to be wrong again.

RedsManRick
06-07-2006, 05:58 PM
2009 (if not 2008) will be for Griffey what this year has been for Bonds and Frank Thomas, and what 2001 was for McGwire.

Theorhetically, Griffey could DH and go for another 4-5 years, but realistically I see him retiring before DH'ing on a regular basis.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-07-2006, 06:00 PM
I would love nothing more than Griffey pulling off a miracle and being the one to pass Aaron.

Never count him out. Just when you think you got him pegged, he pulls a late surprise on you.

flyer85
06-07-2006, 06:13 PM
in 1970 at age 36 Aaron had 554 and needed to Average 40 hrs a season for the next 4 yeaers to catch Ruth. I thought like many others that there was no way.Well he did it coming up only one short in those 4 years. Jr is 18 hrs behind Aarons pace right now so it will take at least 5-7 years to do it. I don't think he'll do it but I'd love to be wrong again.but that is what made Aaron special, he was as good at 35-39 as at any point in his career. Other than the steroid aided Bonds nobody else has ever done it, everyone else experienced significant decline in those 35-39 years.

toledodan
06-07-2006, 06:49 PM
but that is what made Aaron special, he was as good at 35-39 as at any point in his career. Other than the steroid aided Bonds nobody else has ever done it, everyone else experienced significant decline in those 35-39 years.



i still don't believe griffey's baseball skills have delcined just the major injuries have kept him from playing and producing. look at last season for example he was healthy except for the final month hit over 30hrs and also hit .300. this season he missed a month is up to 10 homeruns and has his average up to .290 and near the team lead in rbi's.

Mario-Rijo
06-07-2006, 07:28 PM
Originally posted by flyer85 but that is what made Aaron special, he was as good at 35-39 as at any point in his career. Other than the steroid aided Bonds nobody else has ever done it, everyone else experienced significant decline in those 35-39 years.


I think if you are going to compare Jr. to anyone the closest would be Willie Mays IMHO. And if you do that it supports Flyer's claim that he will see significant decline. Mays Played 22 years until he was 42, his last 8 years 1967-1973 (his 36 yrs. old to 42 years old years) his decline was pretty significant.

1965- (Age 34) 52 HR's-558 AB's (his 2nd 50 HR season)
1966- (Age 35) 37 HR's-552 AB's (an average Willie Mays year)
1967- (Age 36) 22 HR's-468 AB's (A Major dip, never had this little HR's since his rookie year 20 HR's in 1951 which incidentally was the last time sans a shortened '52 season (Injury or Minor leagues?) that he had less than 500 AB's @ 464 AB's).
1968- (Age 37) 23 HR's-498 AB's
1969- (Age 38) 13 HR's-403 AB's
1970- (Age 39) 28 HR's-478 AB's
1971- (Age 40) 18 HR's-417 AB's
1972- (Age 41) 8 HR's-244 AB's
1973- (Age 42) 6 Hr's-209 AB's

Willie didn't neccessarily lose his ability to hit the ball out of the park until he was about 40, but he simply couldn't stay on the field enough to maintain. Hopefully with advances in medicine and therapy etc. Jr. can stay on the field at or around 500 AB's until he's 40 he could average 35 a year between now & then he will sit right around 670-680 heading into his Age 40 season, when the decline would certainly kick in. He might play that season to attempt to get to 700.

That's all wonderful and I hope he does this. However he hasn't gotten 500 AB's since 2000. I say if he passes Mays (which is what I would guess he is shooting for) He would be extremely fortunate. I guessed he would hit 606 on a thread the other day, but after looking at this I think he might have a shot at Mays so I will now say he ends with 673 and retires right before his 41st B-Day. If we all are extremely lucky. :griffey: =:notworthy either way!

flyer85
06-07-2006, 07:52 PM
i still don't believe griffey's baseball skills have delcined just the major injuries have kept him from playing and producing. which is what generally happens to players as part of the aging process. It didn't happen to Aaron in his 30's

jimbo
06-07-2006, 08:03 PM
which is what generally happens to players as part of the aging process. It didn't happen to Aaron in his 30's

Aaron didn't play 11 seasons on the Kingdome turf. I think a lot of Griffey's current problems can probably be related to playing on that crap. I played some games on turf in my younger years and I remember my knees hurting for days afterwards. It would be interesting to see how Junior's legs would be now if he had played on grass for all of those years.

Reverend Doo-Rag
06-07-2006, 08:25 PM
Ain't going to happen. He would have to play 5 more years hitting home runs at Albert Pujols' first 5 years rate and then have to play year 6 to get over the top. (546+201=747) Or put another way he would have to hit almost half of his career's worth of home runs to get there (546+273=819)