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Matt700wlw
07-05-2006, 12:31 PM
Arroyo is not the "real" Arroyo? No offense, Steel, but what the hell does that mean?

I think Wayne's made as many suspect moves as he has good moves, but it's borderline psychotic to throw out Krivsky's acquisition of Arroyo as meaningless or "not real."

Black is not white; and the acquisition of Arroyo was a masterstroke.

Phillips and Arroyo are the 2 best moves this organization has seen in years.

Hell, at this point, throw Ross in there....but another catcher needs to go.

VR
07-05-2006, 01:11 PM
You guys have convinced me. Narron sucks. The Kriv sucks. BC obviously sucks for sticking with these guys for so long. We need a change in ownership and management here in Cincy. We've been stuck with the same old management philosphy for far to long and look what it's gotten us. We can all clearly see how they are gutting the team and continuing to feild nothing but old guys like Dunn, Kearns, Phillips, Ross, The Lizzard, Harrang, Coffey, and Lopez day after day. And again, look what it's gotten us.

We got rid of the scourge of Dan O 3 days before spring training. Isn't that long enough to rip off 5 or 6 blockbuster trades and bring in some HOF caliber help to town? The first three months of the season are known world-wide for the quality of trades available yet we've seen nothing! The minor leagues are chock full of pitchers just bursting to 4 and 5 ERA's in the minors so why aren't they up here to face major league hitting? Obviously they will only improve on those stellar ERA's once they get to the bigs.

My eyes have been opened to the fact that ownership and management are cleary incompetent and have no idea how to build a winning team. It's been 3 months. They've had a chance and it's time to try something new!

Nice post Ltlabner

membengal
07-05-2006, 01:18 PM
Ah yes, the excuse-Krivsky-no-matter-what theory. I am sorry, he hasn't earned that level with me. No one who is being critical of this situation on this thread that I can recall is asking that WK be let go. That's a red-herring strawman position to take, one that those who have been arguing there is some method to WK's madness on this are being reduced to throwing up there. Try something else, like acknowledging this situation has been handled horribly.

I like what WK has in general done so far, but not enough to be content while EE piles up at-bats in Louisville and Castro/Aurilia pile up at-bats in his place in Cincy..

KronoRed
07-05-2006, 02:20 PM
I hate when Steel makes sense ;)

BRM
07-05-2006, 02:21 PM
I hate when Steel makes sense ;)

It's so rare...:p:

WVRedsFan
07-05-2006, 03:05 PM
What can Encarnacion do in Louisville that he can't do in Cincinnati? Go to Churchhill downs?

Play. Apparently the club has given up on him as a third baseman.

Having said that and looking at the replacements, I'd rather haave EdE playing here, but that's a matter of opinion and taste, I guess.

And no, no one (I don't think) has said that Narron or Krivsky suck (I hate that word). I just don't understand the philosophy they have about veteran players. If we had a world-class pitching staff that didn't give up a lot of runs, I would surely go with veterans and sure-handedness and forget about offense. With a staff like we have, you need all the runs you can get and Juan Castro is not a guy who will produce many runs for you.

Of course, there may be a master plan we're not aware of at this point, but these guys should realize that fans are so fed up after nearly 6 years of this that patience is not a virtue they have. The opening weeks of the new regime brought many welcomed changes and now that some of the changes are not so welcomed (Narron's extension, the trading for Castro, acquiring Yan and Joe Mays, the DL of EdE and the perpetual DL of Brandon Claussen), questions will be asked and some of us will get antsy.

WMR
07-05-2006, 03:10 PM
::raises hand:: I said that Narron sucks.

Matt700wlw
07-05-2006, 04:19 PM
Play. Apparently the club has given up on him as a third baseman.



He's been playing some first base in Louisville....


Hmmmm....

flyer85
07-05-2006, 04:29 PM
He's been playing some first base in Louisville....


Hmmmm....the real reason has to be that because his ankle is still bothering him and it will be easier on it. :rolleyes: :help:

Redsland
07-05-2006, 04:55 PM
He's been playing some first base in Louisville....


Hmmmm....
They just want him to get a clearer idea of where it's located.

:)

reds44
07-05-2006, 05:05 PM
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/index.jsp

Apparently Louisville is playing a DH today (although the 1st game doesn't start until 6); Edwin better only play in 1 of those games. If he doesn't play in either, you got to figure he will be up here tomorrow.

flyer85
07-05-2006, 05:06 PM
If he doesn't play in either, you got to figure he will be up here tomorrow.hope springs eternal

reds44
07-05-2006, 05:46 PM
Edwin is in the lineup playing 3rd base and hitting 6th for the Bats tonight.

BRM
07-05-2006, 06:02 PM
I'm not sure why he's hitting 6th but at least he's playing 3B.

Matt700wlw
07-05-2006, 06:05 PM
I'm not sure why he's hitting 6th but at least he's playing 3B.


Maybe Jerry made a phone call ;)

membengal
07-05-2006, 06:09 PM
Edwin is in the lineup playing 3rd base and hitting 6th.

To clarify, I presume you mean in the lineup at Louisville???

reds44
07-05-2006, 06:10 PM
To clarify, I presume you mean in the lineup at Louisville???
Oh yes sorry I should have said that.

KronoRed
07-05-2006, 06:12 PM
6th?

The bats that loaded? ;)

SteelSD
07-05-2006, 06:12 PM
Arroyo is not the "real" Arroyo? No offense, Steel, but what the hell does that mean?

I think Wayne's made as many suspect moves as he has good moves, but it's borderline psychotic to throw out Krivsky's acquisition of Arroyo as meaningless or "not real."

Black is not white; and the acquisition of Arroyo was a masterstroke.

Arroyo entered last night's game as one of the luckiest guys on the baseball planet with a DIPS rate of 1.40. He lowered that DIPS rate to 1.31 after giving up a five-spot in last night's ball game, which still leaves him as one of the luckiest guys on the planet. He's been BABIP lucky and his current performance is in the 10% probability PECOTA range. The ERA you're seeing doesn't match his actual performance and what he's doing right now doesn't match the most probable seasonal outcome. Hey, I love surprising performances as much as the next guy, but the key problem with surprising performances is that there simply isn't a very reasonable expectation that they'll continue over the long haul.

Arroyo isn't a bad pitcher. Not at all. I don't mind having him around one bit. It's refreshing to see twice as many guys in the rotation who can actually pitch a bit. But the Reds also traded one of their biggest chips for him. Brandon Phillips is performing in that 10% probability range right now right along with Arroyo. The former cost little and the latter cost big. Calling the Arroyo trade a "masterstroke" while he's succeeding poorly really isn't big picture thinking. It's component analysis and it doesn't even fit the profile of a genius trade. Now, if we see Krivsky go all A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano, THEN we'd be seeing a "masterstroke".

And I'm willing to allow Krivsky the opportunity to make a deal of that level before concluding that he's a two-dimensional thinker in a three-dimensional world. But it'd sure be a heck of a lot easier on my stomach if we didn't see things along the way like the suppression of a major player (Encarnacion), acquisitions of Juan Castro and Joe Mays and the continued presence of Quinton McCracken.

Everyone has their own comfort zone. Wayne Krivsky most certainly has his. We know what it is. What we don't know is if he'll ever leave it and/or if he'll be any good if he does. But I do know that if he keeps doing what he's doing, we'll see incremental improvment followed by deterioration followed by incremental improvement followed by deterioration.

Patrick Bateman
07-05-2006, 06:22 PM
Brandon Phillips is performing in that 10% probability range right now right along with Arroyo.



I get the whole Arroyo being extremely lucky, but how do you figure Phillips has been just as lucky?

Is his BAPIP too high to assume possible on a consistent basis or is it something else?

Tony Cloninger
07-05-2006, 06:29 PM
In the last 20 years....how many GM's have been able to pull off such a 1 sided trade like AJ for Nathan and Liriano?

I would love to see him pull off that kind of trade also..... but you also need another GM who does not know his own minor leauge players very well, or overrate the player he is getting.

The only trade i recall being this 1 sided was Anderson for Bagwell......or maybe 2.... Alexander for Smoltz.

Falls City Beer
07-05-2006, 06:31 PM
Now, if we see Krivsky go all A.J. Pierzynski for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano, THEN we'd be seeing a "masterstroke".




These kinds of trades happen 2 or 3 times a decade. A guy could retire after a move like this and be considered one of the best GMs in franchise history. Hell, Billy Beane's not pulled off one like this.

And I'd love to know what kind of a "chip" Pena would be on the Reds' DL this season.

This is a real shark jump Steel. I really, really can't locate the universe wherein Pena for Arroyo isn't a masterstroke.

And I agree with you vis. Krivsky's other limitations.

Patrick Bateman
07-05-2006, 06:37 PM
Arroyo has been lucky this year, but I still see the swap for Pena as being a great trade. Being able to aquire a 3.50-4.00 ERA type of pitcher (with a good contract) for Pena is good value. Pena would have priced himslef out of Cincy through arbitration (or free agency) by the time and if he developed anyways.

Patrick Bateman
07-05-2006, 06:41 PM
The only trade i recall being this 1 sided was Anderson for Bagwell......or maybe 2.... Alexander for Smoltz.

The Smoltz trade wasn't the bad for Detroit. Alexander had a crazy year for them going 9-0 with a 1.57 ERA. In hindsight Smoltz developed into a premier pitcher for years to come, but the chances of that weren't very good.

The Liriano trade was different IMO. Pierzynski was never all that great while Nathan was already a top set-up man. Getting him in the deal was good enough to begin with. Plus Bonser was actually the prized prospect in the trade, not Liriano. They ended up getting 3 very good arms including a MLB ready closer in Nathan. The Giants overpaid and overpaid badly. They gave up a lot at the time, and it's only gotten worse.

reds44
07-05-2006, 07:22 PM
Edwin 1-2 with a double (what he does best) so far tonight.

KronoRed
07-05-2006, 07:43 PM
He needs to hit .800 to get a call up ;)

Ltlabner
07-05-2006, 07:50 PM
his current performance is in the 10% probability PECOTA range.

PECOTA...that's a spanish dish with rice right? :devil:

reds44
07-05-2006, 08:30 PM
Edwin is playing in Game 2, but he is DHing.

Matt700wlw
07-05-2006, 08:37 PM
Marc Lancaster thinks he'll be back up tomorrow.

reds44
07-05-2006, 08:39 PM
Marc Lancaster thinks he'll be back up tomorrow.
Thanks for the good news Matt!

Hopefully he is correct!

Jpup
07-05-2006, 08:55 PM
Marc Lancaster thinks he'll be back up tomorrow.

then he'll sit for a week. :p:

reds44
07-05-2006, 09:17 PM
Edwin just went yard.

2-5 with a double and a homer through a game and a half tonight.

LoganBuck
07-05-2006, 09:49 PM
In the last 20 years....how many GM's have been able to pull off such a 1 sided trade like AJ for Nathan and Liriano?

I would love to see him pull off that kind of trade also..... but you also need another GM who does not know his own minor leauge players very well, or overrate the player he is getting.

The only trade i recall being this 1 sided was Anderson for Bagwell......or maybe 2.... Alexander for Smoltz.

Glenn Davis for Curt Schilling, Pete Harnish, and Steve Finley

Tony Cloninger
07-05-2006, 10:08 PM
Rafael Landastoy for John Franco.

That is about 4 now......and those were all between 1983-1991 time frame.

It would be great to get something like this done....but it would take an Adam Dunn as the bait to do it......MAYBE a Felipe Lopez or AK.

Falls City Beer
07-05-2006, 10:12 PM
Rafael Landastoy for John Franco.

That is about 4 now......and those were all between 1983-1991 time frame.

It would be great to get something like this done....but it would take an Adam Dunn as the bait to do it......MAYBE a Felipe Lopez or AK.

Landestoy for Franco doesn't stack up.

SteelSD
07-06-2006, 12:09 AM
These kinds of trades happen 2 or 3 times a decade. A guy could retire after a move like this and be considered one of the best GMs in franchise history. Hell, Billy Beane's not pulled off one like this.

And I'd love to know what kind of a "chip" Pena would be on the Reds' DL this season.

This is a real shark jump Steel. I really, really can't locate the universe wherein Pena for Arroyo isn't a masterstroke.

And I agree with you vis. Krivsky's other limitations.

Billy Beane? Um...an expensive, declining Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Deric Barton qualifies as a true "masterstroke" trade. Ditto for the Brewers haul for Richie Sexson in his walk year (Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano, Jorge de la Rosa). And just so we understand the kind of chain effect true "masterstroke" deals can have, here's the end result at the MLB level:

Chris Capuano (acquired in the Sexson deal)
Tomo Ohka (acquired in the Spivey deal)
Dave Bush (acquired in the Overbay deal)
Gabe Gross (acquired in the Overbay deal)
Chad Moeller (acquired in the Sexson deal)

Basically, for one guy (Sexson), the Brewers ended up with 60% of a rotation and an Overbay production clone (Gross) who really should be starting for someone somewhere. The Brewers did that. The BREWERS. Pittsburgh grabbed Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (sigh...) for a very expensive declining Brian Giles. Brad Penny was acquired for Paul-freakin-Lo Duca. And that WAS a deal that was made in order to put LA over the top but one that was also a huge value gain long-term. Tremendous trade.

Now, Pena was coming off a .796 OPS powered by a .492 SLG. Is that similar production to the pre-trade seasons of Sexson or Giles? Nope. But from a value and potential perspective, Pena was a big-time chip. Big time. And he's certainly more valuable than a pud like Lo Duca (who's Jason Larue-lite). And if you swap a Larue for a high-level proven #2 with potential for #1 status and I'd be happy as all get-out because that's more than just incremental improvement. But that's not what happened. You might think that's what happened with Pena, but it's not.

Arroyo's having a good season on the surface, but that's not who Arroyo is. I can stomach the concept that Arroyo is "learning" how to pitch still at age 29. And I know that Arroyo produced a DIPS ERA of 3.88 in 2004. That's good. But then he produced a 4.57 DIPS ERA in 2005. That's not so good. I also know that his K rate this season has degraded to 6.32 K/9 IP post-April. I've said it before and I'll say it again- if you're trading a big chip you need to grab something that'll really impact the future of your franchise. But what Arroyo represents is incremental "now" improvement. That's fine and dandy if incremental improvement is what's going to push you over the top, but otherwise you might as well be spinning your wheels.

Now, you can consider that opinion "borderline psychotic" and you and tell me I've "jumped the shark" as often as you like. Don't really care. And I wouldn't tell you that your position on this is entirely unreasonable IF you'd realize that higher value swaps occur pretty consistently. Maybe that's the "bigger fool" principle in action but they happen because there's always a bigger fool out there. And yes, I think we agree about around 90% of what Krivsky's done thus far. But on this, I simply can't see where the Arroyo acquisition is anything other than a value-for-value deal that looks better than it really is.

And let's be clear- at no point have you provided any evidence that an Arroyo for Pena swap is true "masterstroke" level GM performance. At best, it's a decent trade. At worst, it's a value loss. At no point does that scenario qualify as genius.

Falls City Beer
07-06-2006, 12:38 AM
Billy Beane? Um...an expensive, declining Mark Mulder for Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Deric Barton qualifies as a true "masterstroke" trade. Ditto for the Brewers haul for Richie Sexson in his walk year (Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell, Lyle Overbay, Chad Moeller, Chris Capuano, Jorge de la Rosa). And just so we understand the kind of chain effect true "masterstroke" deals can have, here's the end result at the MLB level:

Chris Capuano (acquired in the Sexson deal)
Tomo Ohka (acquired in the Spivey deal)
Dave Bush (acquired in the Overbay deal)
Gabe Gross (acquired in the Overbay deal)
Chad Moeller (acquired in the Sexson deal)

Basically, for one guy (Sexson), the Brewers ended up with 60% of a rotation and an Overbay production clone (Gross) who really should be starting for someone somewhere. The Brewers did that. The BREWERS. Pittsburgh grabbed Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (sigh...) for a very expensive declining Brian Giles. Brad Penny was acquired for Paul-freakin-Lo Duca. And that WAS a deal that was made in order to put LA over the top but one that was also a huge value gain long-term. Tremendous trade.

Now, Pena was coming off a .796 OPS powered by a .492 SLG. Is that similar production to the pre-trade seasons of Sexson or Giles? Nope. But from a value and potential perspective, Pena was a big-time chip. Big time. And he's certainly more valuable than a pud like Lo Duca (who's Jason Larue-lite). And if you swap a Larue for a high-level proven #2 with potential for #1 status and I'd be happy as all get-out because that's more than just incremental improvement. But that's not what happened. You might think that's what happened with Pena, but it's not.

Arroyo's having a good season on the surface, but that's not who Arroyo is. I can stomach the concept that Arroyo is "learning" how to pitch still at age 29. And I know that Arroyo produced a DIPS ERA of 3.88 in 2004. That's good. But then he produced a 4.57 DIPS ERA in 2005. That's not so good. I also know that his K rate this season has degraded to 6.32 K/9 IP post-April. I've said it before and I'll say it again- if you're trading a big chip you need to grab something that'll really impact the future of your franchise. But what Arroyo represents is incremental "now" improvement. That's fine and dandy if incremental improvement is what's going to push you over the top, but otherwise you might as well be spinning your wheels.

Now, you can consider that opinion "borderline psychotic" and you and tell me I've "jumped the shark" as often as you like. Don't really care. And I wouldn't tell you that your position on this is entirely unreasonable IF you'd realize that higher value swaps occur pretty consistently. Maybe that's the "bigger fool" principle in action but they happen because there's always a bigger fool out there. And yes, I think we agree about around 90% of what Krivsky's done thus far. But on this, I simply can't see where the Arroyo acquisition is anything other than a value-for-value deal that looks better than it really is.

And let's be clear- at no point have you provided any evidence that an Arroyo for Pena swap is true "masterstroke" level GM performance. At best, it's a decent trade. At worst, it's a value loss. At no point does that scenario qualify as genius.


So it's only a masterstroke if you get younger and cheaper, eh?

See, I prefer better. And I can assure you, Bronson Arroyo is helping this ballclub in the now far, far, far more than Pena would (as his value continues to plummet due to injury/ineptitude). Arroyo makes this club better than Pena. But he does so in the future: Arroyo can nab an ass-load on the trade market at the deadline or the offseason that Pena couldn't even approach nabbing.

The Reds got a chip back from Boston; one that Pena (for all his "potential") can't envision ever becoming. The Reds got value, talent, and the most valued commodity in the game (starting pitching) for Alex Ochoa.

Ma-ster-stroke.

*and incidentally Beane's Haren (and extra stuff) for Mulder is clearly a win for Beane, but it's not even in the same neighborhood as AJ for Liriano/Nathan. Not in the same stratosphere.

I'd put the Pena/Arroyo on a par with each of your above examples excepting the Milwaukee Sexson deal. That was an insane haul.

KronoRed
07-06-2006, 12:50 AM
Lock the thread..he's up ;)

reds44
07-06-2006, 12:59 AM
The Final Damage

Runs Scored By Game:
Runs scored by game-
2
3
5
4
3
4
6
1
4
2
6
2
3
0
4
8
7
6
9
7
3
7
2
5

24 games, 103 runs
4.2 RPG

Record during the 24 games:
8-16

Record before Edwin went on the DL:
36-25

We had the same pen with Edwin, so yeah Edwin is important to the team.

WVRedsFan
07-06-2006, 01:46 AM
The Final Damage

24 games, 103 runs
4.2 RPG

Record during the 24 games:
8-16

Record before Edwin went on the DL:
36-25

We had the same pen with Edwin, so yeah Edwin is important to the team.

You saved me a lot of work. I have been working on this tonight and finally got too tired and gave up. Your figures ring true.

Now, let's see who starts at 3rd in Atlanta.

membengal
07-06-2006, 07:44 AM
The Final Damage

Runs Scored By Game:
Runs scored by game-
2
3
5
4
3
4
6
1
4
2
6
2
3
0
4
8
7
6
9
7
3
7
2
5

24 games, 103 runs
4.2 RPG

Record during the 24 games:
8-16

Record before Edwin went on the DL:
36-25

We had the same pen with Edwin, so yeah Edwin is important to the team.

Very fine work.

(highlights this post for GAC)

SteelSD
07-06-2006, 12:10 PM
So it's only a masterstroke if you get younger and cheaper, eh?

See, I prefer better. And I can assure you, Bronson Arroyo is helping this ballclub in the now far, far, far more than Pena would (as his value continues to plummet due to injury/ineptitude). Arroyo makes this club better than Pena. But he does so in the future: Arroyo can nab an ass-load on the trade market at the deadline or the offseason that Pena couldn't even approach nabbing.

The Reds got a chip back from Boston; one that Pena (for all his "potential") can't envision ever becoming. The Reds got value, talent, and the most valued commodity in the game (starting pitching) for Alex Ochoa.

Ma-ster-stroke.

*and incidentally Beane's Haren (and extra stuff) for Mulder is clearly a win for Beane, but it's not even in the same neighborhood as AJ for Liriano/Nathan. Not in the same stratosphere.

I'd put the Pena/Arroyo on a par with each of your above examples excepting the Milwaukee Sexson deal. That was an insane haul.

No, you get "masterstroke" status when you realize a more significant value gain than what Arroyo represents. Otherwise, you're just stroking yourself. The Mulder and Sexson deals certainly represent that and the Pierzynski deal probably tops the list. The Arroyo/Pena one-for-one value swap isn't in the same ballpark as any of those very recent big-time hauls.

redsandrails
07-06-2006, 01:27 PM
A lot of guys in recent memory have pitched like an ace after being projected as #3/#4 kinda guys. Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, and Esteban Loaiza (1 yr. wonder unfortunately). Even Brad Penny wasn't THAT highly regarded a few years back... was very similar top Bronson. I mean it's possible that he can keep it up for at least the year and maybe longer.