PDA

View Full Version : Davis: Move would help Griffey



dabvu2498
06-12-2006, 08:51 AM
Davis: Move would help Jr.
'Wear and tear' would be less in left or right
BY JOHN ERARDI | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITER
The Reds' defense has come under heavy scrutiny recently. Last week, national pundits told The Enquirer that defense is one thing that may keep the team from contending for the division title through late September.

There may not be much the Reds can do in the short term, although some observers have suggested flip-flopping shortstop Felipe Lopez and second baseman Brandon Phillips, right fielder Austin Kearns and center fielder Ken Griffey Jr., or moving left fielder Adam Dunn to first base, Griffey to left and putting Ryan Freel in center. Down the road - if some team overwhelmed the Reds with a No. 1 pitcher and Dunn were to be traded - some people think Griffey would make a Gold Glove-quality first baseman.

But Eric Davis, who is arguably the greatest defensive center fielder the Reds have had, said first base is not easy.

"If you haven't played the infield, first base is a heck of an adjustment - if you're talking about wanting to be good over there," Davis said from his home in Los Angeles. "Ray Knight (then-Reds manager) wanted me to play some games at first base in '96, so I took ground balls for four or five days and then played a game. I was sore for three weeks.

"And (I had been signed) as a shortstop, so I knew what it was to field a hard-hit ground ball. But your muscles get out of practice. I wasn't used to it anymore."

Davis was 34 in '96; Griffey is 36.

Davis believes Griffey would extend his career if he moved to left or right field. Davis said it worked for him.

"I'd like to see (Griffey) switch ... not because he can't cover the ground in center, but because he won't have to continuously cover the ground," Davis said.

Davis played 56 games in left field and 66 in center for the 1990 World Series champion Reds. He began the season in center, went on the disabled list and returned May 21 as a left fielder. He was eight days shy of his 28th birthday.

The difference between the 2006 Reds and the 1990 Reds, however, is that 16 years ago the newly acquired Billy Hatcher (now the Reds' first base coach) was able to slide over to center field without any dramatic upheaval.

"It was a general consensus between me, (then-manager) Lou (Piniella) and (then-trainer) Larry Starr for me to move to left," Davis recalled. "I had a big brace on my knee - I twisted it real bad stealing third base on a muddy night - and we all knew that there'd be less strain on it playing left field, and we were right. ... You do what you have to do depending on what the team needs."

Davis said the key to changing positions is to "not look upon it as a demotion."

"If you don't look at it as a demotion, it takes the ego out of it," Davis said. "And, the truth is, it (switching to a corner outfield spot) will extend (Griffey's) career because it will be easier on his legs. When you play center, you're either involved in or backing up every play, including the left and right fielders. But when you're in left and right, there are plays you're taking off, that you aren't running. That cuts down on the wear and tear."

Davis said there is no doubt in his mind that Griffey would be an outstanding corner outfielder.

"Mostly, it's just a matter of getting used to reading the different angles," Davis said. "It's easier to read the ball in center. And in center, you're in control. In left, I had to back off for Hatcher, because he was an aggressive center fielder. But it's something you get used to the more you're out there."

STATS: Brandon Phillips is 12-for-12 on stolen bases. It is the best start by a Red since Gary Redus went 15-for-15 in 1984. ... Griffey's next home run will be his 548th, tying Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt, and will give the Griffey family 700. Ken Griffey Sr. hit 152.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060612/SPT04/606120373/1071/SPT

westofyou
06-12-2006, 10:19 AM
Last week, national pundits told The Enquirer that defense is one thing that may keep the team from contending for the division title through late September.Well knock me down with a feather.

44Magnum
06-12-2006, 10:27 AM
Davis would know. After all 80% of the world is covered by water. The other 20% by Eric Davis!

Hap
06-12-2006, 12:02 PM
John Erardi writes a fluff piece about another guy with an opinion.

I seriously doubt that Junior is going to read that article and suddenly change his mind.

smith288
06-12-2006, 12:06 PM
John Erardi writes a fluff piece about another guy with an opinion.

I seriously doubt that Junior is going to read that article and suddenly change his mind.
Change his mind? Griffey hasnt been approached by the staff about it. He simply said he wont discuss it with the media.

KoryMac5
06-12-2006, 12:20 PM
I really don't feel that Eric Davis is just another guy with an opinion. He went through the move and detailed for the purposes of the article why he made the move. Honestly Griffey is not are biggest defensive liability right now.

Johnny Footstool
06-12-2006, 12:39 PM
Players listen to other players more than they listen to the media or the fans. Much more.

A lot of us have been endorsing a move like this for a few years now. Maybe if people Junior respect start endorsing it, he'll start listening.

smith288
06-12-2006, 12:43 PM
Players listen to other players more than they listen to the media or the fans. Much more.

A lot of us have been endorsing a move like this for a few years now. Maybe if people Junior respect start endorsing it, he'll start listening.
Again..I ask. Listen to who? Us the fans? The media? He said the coaching staff hasnt said anything to him nor has Krivs...

I dont understand "WHO" Griffey is supposed to be listening to.

edabbs44
06-12-2006, 12:58 PM
Again..I ask. Listen to who? Us the fans? The media? He said the coaching staff hasnt said anything to him nor has Krivs...

I dont understand "WHO" Griffey is supposed to be listening to.
He should listen to his head. He's not 25 yrs old and a move would help him prolong his career and help the Reds as a team. A Freel/Deno combo in CF, Dunn to 1st and Jr in LF looks enticing.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2006, 01:05 PM
Junior represents the only defensive liability on the squad; move him and you've basically solved the defensive issues with this club. All a team ever needs to be is defensively competent.

Johnny Footstool
06-12-2006, 01:07 PM
Again..I ask. Listen to who? Us the fans? The media? He said the coaching staff hasnt said anything to him nor has Krivs...

I dont understand "WHO" Griffey is supposed to be listening to.

Lots of people can see his defensive decline. Objective measurements show it. Lots of people recognize that it's harder on the body to play CF than LF. I'm sure the coaches can see it, too. If they haven't mentioned it, they're just trying to preserve Junior's feelings.

Maybe if the people Griffey respects (i.e. other players) start saying something, Junior will start to listen.

smith288
06-12-2006, 01:19 PM
Protecting Griffey's feelings instead of winning (if thats what your saying) ? Im not so sure.

BCubb2003
06-12-2006, 01:22 PM
It's a good discussion to get out in public when it comes from somebody knowledgable like Eric Davis and not a talk show host. It becomes a lot more thinkable for the coaches and Griffey instead of being such a huge line to cross.

Highlifeman21
06-12-2006, 01:25 PM
Junior represents the only defensive liability on the squad; move him and you've basically solved the defensive issues with this club. All a team ever needs to be is defensively competent.

Lopez is a defensive liability as well, as displayed in this past series with the Cubs.

Falls City Beer
06-12-2006, 01:30 PM
Lopez looks mediocre, but his defense isn't so bad that it nearly cancels his offense.

flyer85
06-12-2006, 01:36 PM
I'm somehow get the feeling Jr isn't listening.

RANDY IN INDY
06-12-2006, 01:48 PM
Junior represents the only defensive liability on the squad; move him and you've basically solved the defensive issues with this club. All a team ever needs to be is defensively competent.

Are you really serious, FCB?

jimbo
06-12-2006, 02:13 PM
Junior represents the only defensive liability on the squad; move him and you've basically solved the defensive issues with this club. All a team ever needs to be is defensively competent.

I see the entire left side of the defense (EE, Lopez, Dunn) as a far more defensive liability than Junior. Out of the team total of 56 errors, 32 have come from them three while playing 3B, SS, and LF.

Reds Freak
06-12-2006, 02:13 PM
I almost get the feeling that we (fans/media) are on the verge of running Griffey right out of town. I can never speculate what Griffey feels or thinks but who wants to put up with so much criticism especially when doing so well? Fans complain about him when he's in the lineup but the Reds aren't winning, fans complain about him when he gets injured, now fans complain about him when he is healthy, playing well, and the team is winning. If he ever does move to left or right or first, we'll find something else to complain about.

KronoRed
06-12-2006, 03:30 PM
I doubt it's even close to him demanding out, in his first year it was 500% worse "He's not hitting HR's every night, HE strikes out too much, His bat avg is not as good as Jim Edmonds, he's worthless Cameron was better" and on and on.

Highlifeman21
06-12-2006, 03:31 PM
Lopez looks mediocre, but his defense isn't so bad that it nearly cancels his offense.


So you're saying Griffey's ineptitude in CF cancels out his offense?

HBP
06-12-2006, 03:45 PM
The way this team is configured right now, with Aurilla & Hatteburg playing solid at 1B, Jr.'s only real option is to play CF. Of course he doesn't have the range he once did, but he still knows how to play every ball and I don't consider him a liability. Eric Davis was a great player, but I think Jr and his 10 gold gloves also hold some weight on whether to move positions or not and he'll know when his body can't take it anymore. And like smith288 said, no one on the coaching staff has asked for a move of any kind.

Concerning the move of Dunn from LF to 1B, why would a below average defensive player in left suddenly become a good defensive option at first? I respect Dunn because I do think he gives effort, but IMO he'll never be a good defensive option no matter where he plays.

RedsManRick
06-12-2006, 04:28 PM
There are two essentially two variables in terms of fielding (throwing excluded):
- The percent of balls one can get to (ie. range)
- The percent of balls caught which the fielder is in position to catch

I think that many (if not most people) weight the 2nd variable too strongly, largely because of the error statistic and official scorers only counting "range" failures if they are horribly gross.

Griffey is as surehanded as ever, even making diving plays. However, you can't catch a ball 10 feet away from you, even if you slide or dive.

For the sake of example, let's say that 5 balls per game are hit in to "CF territory" -- that is the part of the field for which the CF, if anybody, can be expected to field the ball.

Let's say that the best CF in the game, a 24 year old Andruw Jones, gets to 80% of balls hit in to CF territory (the most of anybody ever & a made up number) and never makes an error, 100% conversion. He will convert 4 balls in play in to outs per game (648 outs per season).

Now let's look at 2 other fielders:
Switfy McButterfingers (awesome range, bad hands): Let's say he has perfect range (80% of balls in play to CF), but has a very very poor ability to catch the ball and drops 10% of everything he gets to (.900 FPCT). He'll end up turning 583 balls in play in to outs, 65 less than Jones.

Fatty O'Vacuum (crap range, awesome hands): Let's say he never drops a ball (1.000 FPTC) but only gets to 70% of the balls that Swift does. He'll end up turning 567 balls in play in to outs, 71 less than Jones.

Now, you can make arguments about the effects of each kind of ball in play that isn't an out (arguably that you can adjust for poor range with a fast LF, but a LF can't help a CF who is error prone. If they would turn the same amount of balls in play in to outs, I'd rather have the slow but reliable guy.

The real question is how many balls is Junior NOT getting to that Kearns (or Freel) could? It's not about errors, it's about range. If a ball gets hit in to shallow center and Freel is camped under it but drops it, he'll get an error and we'll ride him for poor defense. If Junior is 5 steps late and plays it on a hop, it's just a single.

Now, we certainly need to quantify how many balls Junior isn't getting to before making any claim, but every attempt to do this has shown that Junior's lack of range is hurting us far more than would a CF with above average range who dropped the occasional ball.

This is exacerbated by a LF who has average range and crap for hands. If Junior was flanked by Ichiro and Podsednik, he'd be fine. But with Dunn in LF, Junior is a major defensive liability. Put Kearns in CF and that's a big time step in the right direction without completely rocking the boat.

Johnny Footstool
06-12-2006, 04:29 PM
How is Aurilia "solid" at 1B? Defensively, he's a statue when it comes to digging out throws, which is the first baseman's main job. While Dunn does struggle with fielding ground balls, he's a decent receiver with a lot of reach -- better than Aurilia in that department.

Offensively, Aurilia's a huge downgrade from Dunn. Huge.

As for Griffey, every defensive metric shows that his range is so poor that he costs the Reds on defense. His legs just can't get him to the ball as quickly anymore. Why not put him in a position like LF where range isn't as critical as it is in CF?

(BTW RedsManRick - I just picked up a Swifty McButterfingers rookie card for two dollars on eBay.)

Falls City Beer
06-12-2006, 04:37 PM
Are you really serious, FCB?

As a heart attack.

RANDY IN INDY
06-12-2006, 04:46 PM
As a heart attack.

Surprises me.

HBP
06-12-2006, 04:51 PM
Put Kearns in CF and that's a big time step in the right direction without completely rocking the boat.

I personally like that idea much more than the Dunn to 1B move, especially midseason.

saboforthird
06-12-2006, 05:07 PM
I believe the Reds are close to having their hand forced with the Griffey issue, and will demand that he switch to another position or agree to be traded. I mean, Junior is wonderful and all and he still manages to come up with a great play every now and then, but in the long run he's not helping his team by continuing to trot out there and risking injury or not getting to balls that Freel or Kearns could maybe get to. At what point does "for the team" override "they think I can't do this anymore"?

Nugget
06-12-2006, 07:57 PM
:rolleyes:
Junior represents the only defensive liability on the squad; move him and you've basically solved the defensive issues with this club. All a team ever needs to be is defensively competent.:thumbdown

The change in Avatar has obviously made your mind disappear. Junior is not the only player who would be a defensive liability on the field. You have Dunn and Lopez who can't even pull in routine plays much less the crucial ones. EE is still only learniing so I wouldn't make a statement that Junior is the only defensive liability on the team and all problems would be solved by moving him.

And your argument that Lopez's bat makes up for his lack of defensive competence could be multiplied by 10 for Junior.:explode: :dunno: :censored: :censored: :barf:

Falls City Beer
06-12-2006, 08:53 PM
:rolleyes: :thumbdown

The change in Avatar has obviously made your mind disappear. Junior is not the only player who would be a defensive liability on the field. You have Dunn and Lopez who can't even pull in routine plays much less the crucial ones. EE is still only learniing so I wouldn't make a statement that Junior is the only defensive liability on the team and all problems would be solved by moving him.

And your argument that Lopez's bat makes up for his lack of defensive competence could be multiplied by 10 for Junior.:explode: :dunno: :censored: :censored: :barf:

Junior is by far the worst defensive player at his position on the 25-man roster. It is not even close. And Junior's defense cuts far deeper into his offensive production on the ledger than does Lopez's defense.

tripleaaaron
06-14-2006, 01:43 AM
Yes, Jr isn't the player he once was, but even if he's lost a step that puts him right back to average as he was previously a step ahead, although I do agree that he should move to Left to prolong his career. Move him to Left, Dunn to 1st, and platoon Deno and Freel in center, that would dramatically improve our D. As for the left side of the infield I would agree that CURRENTLY they are the biggest Defensive weekness (sans Adam Dunn, yes a great hitter in his own right, but defensively not so much) but these young infielders WILL improve, all they need is experience. SS and 3B are tough positions to learn and they will get alot better with time. EE will be a gold- glover sometime in his career as he has already shown flashes of brilliance in his short major league career. As a team playing for the future (which we are, despite the current wild card leading, over our heads play) dont mess w/ the infield!!

tripleaaaron
06-14-2006, 01:44 AM
Junior is by far the worst defensive player at his position on the 25-man roster. It is not even close. And Junior's defense cuts far deeper into his offensive production on the ledger than does Lopez's defense.

Not even close, have you watched Dunn play LF? Move him to 1b.

GAC
06-14-2006, 06:55 AM
Junior represents the only defensive liability on the squad; move him and you've basically solved the defensive issues with this club. All a team ever needs to be is defensively competent.

You're kidding right? EE and Lopez lead this team in the error dept, and both have made some pretty bonehead decisions while learning the position.

As already shown - the leftside of this defense is where alot of the problems lie.

I'm not against Jr moving; but saying it will cure our defensive woes is silly.

And wait till people see Dunn at 1B. His defense is not gonna improve regardless of where he plays.

GAC
06-14-2006, 06:59 AM
As for Griffey, every defensive metric shows that his range is so poor that he costs the Reds on defense.

Show that he has lost a step and range? Sure. But I don't see where those metrics, as subjective as they are, SHOW that Jr costs us games?

I think there is alot of assumption being made there that because he has lost a step, he is therefore costing us games.

Watching this team in '06 - it's not Jr costing us games. Especially from a defensive standpoint.

Jpup
06-14-2006, 07:32 AM
2006 Zone Rating (The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.)

Ken Griffey Jr. CF .835

Jr. would be 32nd out of 37 players in the NL who have started in CF for 5 games or more in 2006. Of the 14 NL CFers who have played, at least, 300 innings this season, Jr. is dead last in zone rating.

Here is the list:

Reggie Abercrombie .927
Carlos Beltran .924
Juan Pierre .921
Mike Cameron .918
Eric Byrnes .904
Aaron Rowand .890
Cory Sullivan .886
Jim Edmonds .885
Steve Finley .883
Kenny Lofton .880
Willy Taveras .878
Brady Clark .878
Andruw Jones .865
Ken Griffey Jr. .835

GAC
06-14-2006, 08:09 AM
But IMO - I think sabermetrics has a ways to go, when it comes to defensive stats, to catch up to the offensive side.

Showing a guy's zone rating, and various other defensive stats, may show you a guy has slowed and lost a step - and I can understand where some may look at those and come to the conclusion that Jr is a detriment in CF.

But those metrics don't necessarily prove that - or that he is costing us games. That is simply an opinion or assumption made.... the guy has lost some range, so therefore, he's costing us games.

IMO - in that area, they are too vague.

Johnny Footstool
06-14-2006, 09:31 AM
Show that he has lost a step and range? Sure. But I don't see where those metrics, as subjective as they are, SHOW that Jr costs us games?

I think there is alot of assumption being made there that because he has lost a step, he is therefore costing us games.

Watching this team in '06 - it's not Jr costing us games. Especially from a defensive standpoint.

I said he was costing the Reds, and in terms of baserunners allowed, he is. Now, you can easily extrapolate that and realize that baserunners add up to runs, and runs add up to games, but I wasn't trying to imply that Junior was making big-time errors in the ninth inning and allowing the winning run to score.

Besides, I don't believe in blaming any loss on a single player or play.

westofyou
06-14-2006, 09:36 AM
But those metrics don't necessarily prove that - our that he is costing us games. That is simply an opinion or assumption made.... the guy has lost some range, so therefore, he's costing us games.Then look at the Put outs he aquires per game he has played. It should be healthy with this FB team, it should be above 3.

It's not


NAME G GS IP TC PO A E DP FP% RF ZR

Ken Griffey Jr. 34 34 293.2 85 84 1 0 0 1.000 2.61 .828
Ryan Freel 32 25 233.2 78 75 3 0 0 1.000 3.02 .867
McCracken 5 4 37.0 15 14 0 1 0 .933 3.41 .813
Chris Denorfia 2 1 9.1 1 1 0 0 0 1.000 .96 1.000
FWIW

Out of the 27 centerfielders over the age of 35 who had 300 putouts only two played on teams that went to the world series and only one played on a team that won it all. Therest watche dat home, sometimes becaus ethe CF could get to as many balls as before.

GAC
06-15-2006, 08:20 AM
Out of the 27 centerfielders over the age of 35 who had 300 putouts only two played on teams that went to the world series and only one played on a team that won it all. Therest watche dat home, sometimes becaus ethe CF could get to as many balls as before.

So? Respectfully, that is one useless stat, and really shows/proves nothing - to say that the rest watched at home, and solely because their CFer could not get to as many balls as before. That is what you're saying, while not taking into consideration the obvious other factors that kept that team from even having a shot at the post-season... they stunk as a team.

How many teams right now have CFers that are out-performing Jr defensively, meet the critieria you mention above, yet still have no shot at the post-season?

Maybe the main reason they were sitting at home was because they fielded an average to poor team overall.

So you are basically saying that the Reds have no shot, regardless of how good the team is assembled around Jr in CF, of getting to the post-season because Jr is in CF?


I said he was costing the Reds, and in terms of baserunners allowed, he is. Now, you can easily extrapolate that and realize that baserunners add up to runs, and runs add up to games

Fair assessment Johnny. Now can you show me specifically (a breakdown) of the baserunners allowed by Jr, and that they ARE adding up to runs and costing us games?

westofyou
06-15-2006, 09:25 AM
So? Respectfully, that is one useless stat, and really shows/proves nothing Really?

Guess I'm reading it wrong.

It tells me that teams like younger CF's and that older ones are not often in the hunt, it also tells me that older guys get to less balls in CF. Historical data pretty much starts to peter out when a CF hit Griffey's age.

That's because most teams know you don't win squat with an older CF.


Breaking it up by eras it goes like this:


1876-1920

PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE
2 Dummy Hoy 1898 348 348 148 36
T3 Tommy Leach 1914 321 321 136 36
T3 Dummy Hoy 1899 321 321 154 37
5 Dode Paskert 1920 306 306 137 38

Every guy above played on a sub .500 team and was out of the game almost a year or 2 after the achievement, of note is that Hoy played on the Louisville Colonels, a team contracted after 1899... his backup was a young Tommy Leach who when the Louisville was contracted was moved over to the Pirates where he made his name with another couple of transfers named Clarke and Wagner.


1921-1945

PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE
1 Ty Cobb 1924 417 417 155 37
2 Tris Speaker 1926 394 394 149 38
3 Cy Williams 1924 368 368 145 36
4 Ty Cobb 1923 362 362 141 36
5 Doc Cramer 1942 352 352 150 36
6 Doc Cramer 1943 346 346 138 37
7 Sam Rice 1926 342 342 152 36
8 Doc Cramer 1944 337 337 141 38
T9 Max Carey 1927 331 331 141 37
T9 Earl Averill 1938 331 331 131 36
10 Mike Kreevich 1945 328 328 121 37
11 Tris Speaker 1924 323 323 128 36
12 Kiki Cuyler 1936 322 322 140 37
13 Doc Cramer 1945 314 314 140 39
14 Tris Speaker 1925 311 311 109 37
15 Eddie Brown 1928 309 309 129 36

Of note: Cobb and Speaker were both managers of teams and played themselves in CF, both experienced losing seasons doing it as well as winning. Only Max Carey played on a World Series team. Cramer and Kreevich are most likely a result of war time shortages. Three of the above players comprise 40% of the total players who were trotted out ther post 35.


1946-1960

PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE
None

Expansion Era version 1 & 2


1961-1976
PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE
1 Bill Bruton 1962 394 394 145 36
2 Willie Davis 1976 349 349 128 36
3 Bill Bruton 1963 339 339 138 37
4 Willie Mays 1968 301 301 142 37

Bruton was a small, skinny guy on a 5th and 6th place Braves team, Davisnever played full time again and was out of the game in 77 and 78, Mays is in the same vein as Ty and Tris, a one of the kind guy who had no major injuries as he gained on father time.

Expansion Era Version 3


1977-1992

PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE
1 Robin Yount 1992 371 371 139 36
2 Willie Wilson 1992 355 355 120 36


A HOF player and a prototype 80's CF in his last year as a starter. Yount retired 2 years later.
Expansion ERA Version 4.0


1993-2005

PUTOUTS YEAR PO PO G AGE
1 Brett Butler 1993 369 369 155 36
2 Steve Finley 2004 359 359 158 39
3 Otis Nixon 1995 357 357 138 36
4 Otis Nixon 1997 351 351 144 38
5 Marquis Grissom 2003 343 343 148 36
6 Otis Nixon 1996 342 342 125 37
7 Marquis Grissom 2004 341 341 142 37
8 Craig Biggio 2003 326 326 150 37
9 Steve Finley 2002 319 319 144 37
10 Kenny Lofton 2003 314 314 136 36
11 Brady Anderson 2000 307 307 132 36
12 Steve Finley 2001 300 300 131 36

This aside for the 21-45 era is the one most rich with the achievements of the post 35 year old CF, but like the aforementioned 21-45 era the numbers are dominated by 3 players who hold 66% of the places above. This however is the list that can boast a player who played on World Series team that won, with Finley hoisting the trophy with the Diamondbacks in 2001.

So out of the 27 centerfielders over the age of 35 who had 300 putouts only two played on teams that went to the world series and only one played on a team that one it all.

Not very good odds if you ask me.

Johnny Footstool
06-15-2006, 10:47 AM
Fair assessment Johnny. Now can you show me specifically (a breakdown) of the baserunners allowed by Jr, and that they ARE adding up to runs and costing us games?


Let's see...low range factor means he's not making a lot of putouts. Low zone rating means he's not fielding a lot of balls in the typical CF zone. Those numbers have been low for several years. So either batters are hitting balls to CF at an astonishingly low rate when Jr. is in CF (and have been doing so for years), or Junior simply isn't making plays on a high percentage of balls hit to him, creating more baserunners.

If you can't make the necessary inferences from that point, I don't think anyone can help you.

REDREAD
06-16-2006, 09:31 AM
2006 Zone Rating (The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc.)

Ken Griffey Jr. CF .835

Jr. would be 32nd out of 37 players in the NL who have started in CF for 5 games or more in 2006. Of the 14 NL CFers who have played, at least, 300 innings this season, Jr. is dead last in zone rating.

Here is the list:

Reggie Abercrombie .927
Carlos Beltran .924
Juan Pierre .921
Mike Cameron .918
Eric Byrnes .904
Aaron Rowand .890
Cory Sullivan .886
Jim Edmonds .885
Steve Finley .883
Kenny Lofton .880
Willy Taveras .878
Brady Clark .878
Andruw Jones .865
Ken Griffey Jr. .835

Something is wrong here.. this means that Andruw Jones is the second worst CF in the league? That Brady Clark is better than Andruw Jones? That tells me this stat is flawed. I have a hard time believing that Finley and Clark are better than A Jones.

Johnny Footstool
06-16-2006, 09:49 AM
Something is wrong here.. this means that Andruw Jones is the second worst CF in the league? That Brady Clark is better than Andruw Jones? That tells me this stat is flawed. I have a hard time believing that Finley and Clark are better than A Jones.

Jones' ZR was mediocre last season and ridiculously low in 2004 and 2003.

It could be the Braves pitching staff, but more likely it's due to his slow foot speed.

REDREAD
06-16-2006, 03:04 PM
Jones' ZR was mediocre last season and ridiculously low in 2004 and 2003.

It could be the Braves pitching staff, but more likely it's due to his slow foot speed.

Ok, but I have a hard time with the idea that Brady Clark is a better CF than Jones, even if Jones has lost a step. I admit to not seeing a lot of Jones the last 2 years.

GAC
06-16-2006, 03:24 PM
Let's see...low range factor means he's not making a lot of putouts. Low zone rating means he's not fielding a lot of balls in the typical CF zone. Those numbers have been low for several years. So either batters are hitting balls to CF at an astonishingly low rate when Jr. is in CF (and have been doing so for years), or Junior simply isn't making plays on a high percentage of balls hit to him, creating more baserunners.

That I already understand and accept Johnny. It shows conclusively that he has lost a step. No argument from me there.


If you can't make the necessary inferences from that point, I don't think anyone can help you.

The inference is that by creating more baserunners, due to his lower zone rating, those baserunners are scoring, and thus costing us games.

All I'm asking is if that can be shown conclusively and not inferred (assumed to be the outcome/guesswork)?

There is no statistical data that illustrates this?

I'm not saying it's not so - just asking.

Johnny Footstool
06-16-2006, 03:52 PM
That I already understand and accept Johnny. It shows conclusively that he has lost a step. No argument from me there.



The inference is that by creating more baserunners, due to his lower zone rating, those baserunners are scoring, and thus costing us games.

All I'm asking is if that can be shown conclusively and not inferred (assumed to be the outcome/guesswork)?

There is no statistical data that illustrates this?

I'm not saying it's not so - just asking.

I'm sure the data exists, but I don't have access to it. We'll have to wait for the good people who produce The Fielding Bible to pour over every play during the offseason and come up with their ratings. So again, it's probably not "conclusive," but it's going to be as accurate as possible.

Redsland
06-16-2006, 04:15 PM
At the very least the additional baserunners translate into longer innings, additional pitches thrown, earlier calls to the bullpen, faster turnover of opposing lineup, etc. All that stuff's bad, plus however many baserunners come around to score.