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View Full Version : Time to discuss this horrid lineup



TOBTTReds
06-13-2006, 11:26 PM
Alright, I've had enough of this lineup. Time to examine. Coming in to tonight is where these numbers come from.

Does anyone else find it weird that our 6-7-8 hitters have been leading us in RBI's this season? Guys like Phillips (38), Edwin (36), and Ross in limited time (22 in 75 AB's coming in). Probably because high OBP guys like Dunn and Hatteberg are batting 5th and 6th many times.

Why is our lineup ever:

3. Griffey
4. Aurilia
5. Dunn

Isn't the idea to get guys on base for your sluggers?

Say the lineup is what it has been a lot lately:

Freel (.377 obp)
Lopez (.370 obp)
Griffey (.337 obp and .551 slg)
Aurilia (.313 obp and .473 slg)
Dunn (.389 obp and .581 slg)

PLEASE tell me why Dunn is batting 5th? Ever? Even vs. LH pitchers this year his obp is .440 and OPS'ing 1.093!!! Aurilia has been hitting well vs. LH'ers, but that only lasts about 2/3 of the game for the starter, then in comes a RH reliever, where his OPS is .565.

With this lineup, the sum of the OBP for 1-2-3 spots, that lead up to your cleanup hitter is 1.084 for a .473 slugger batting 4th.

Now try this:

Freel (.377 obp)
Lopez (.370 obp)
Dunn (.389 obp and .581 slg)
Griffey (.337 obp and .551 slg)
Kearns (.347 obp and .492)
Aurilia (.313 obp and .473 slg)

Here, the sum of the OBP for 1-2-3 is 1.136 (.052 higher), that leads up to your cleanup hitter with a .551 slugging (.078 higher). Aurilia would benefit from this too because he would have more guys on base ahead of him.

I just think this is ridiculous that Dunn is still batting 5th at times, and to me it makes no sense that Griffey is ever batting ahead of him. Dunn would be on base for Griffey so much more than Griffey is for Dunn. And when people are on base, Griffey will still see more pitches than Dunn will. I think this switch has to be made.

I don't mind Hatteberg batting 2nd either. He is getting on base at a team leading .396. I dont care if he is slow, he isn't clogging the paths for the speedy Griffey, Aurilia, or Dunn.

This is turning into a Miley lineup. He has to change it up. Aurilia is 9th in OPS on this team between the regulars, even Freel is beating him in OPS which is designed to keep in mind the power hitters more than "little guys" like him. Felipe has the lowest OPS on the team, and I think that is mainly because of when he faces LH'ers (.844 vs. RH, and .621 vs. LH), and if there is a LH starter, I wouldn't let him smell the top of the lineup.

Rant over, discuss if you like.

edabbs44
06-13-2006, 11:30 PM
Like I said in the game thread, I have no problem with Aurilia hitting 4th vs lefties. His stats are phenomenal vs LHPs. Righties he has no business seeing the field.

But do you maybe think that Dunn's numbers with runners on base might have something to do with it? He is hitting .180 with runners on. OPS is .820. Say what you wish, but this season he is obviously struggling with runners on. With RISP he is hitting .148 with an .860 OPS. Maybe Narron is looking at that.

Bases empty: hitting .273 with an OPS of 1.075. Kind of weird.

reds44
06-13-2006, 11:38 PM
BP needs to bat no lower then 5th. When he plays good things happen. He leads the team in RBI's, he is our best defender, and is our best base stealer. Phillips has been our most consistent player all year.

captainmorgan07
06-13-2006, 11:40 PM
BP needs to bat no lower then 5th. When he plays good things happen. He leads the team in RBI's, he is our best defender, and is our best base stealer. Phillips has been our most consistent player all year.
i agree he's become a more patient hitter since he's gotten here

reds44
06-13-2006, 11:43 PM
i agree he's become a more patient hitter since he's gotten here
And he preforms awesome in the 1 or 2 spot. Why Narron insists on batting him down in the order and RA and Hat up in the order is beyond me.

M2
06-13-2006, 11:45 PM
I just think this is ridiculous that Dunn is still batting 5th at times, and to me it makes no sense that Griffey is ever batting ahead of him. Dunn would be on base for Griffey so much more than Griffey is for Dunn. And when people are on base, Griffey will still see more pitches than Dunn will. I think this switch has to be made.

I'm with you. I doubt there's another team in the league that wants to face Dunn in front of Jr. Fortunately for them the Reds are nothing if not congenial.

reds44
06-13-2006, 11:48 PM
Lopez
Dunn
Griffey
Kearns
Phillips


You're 5 best hitters, hitting in the top 5 slots. Novel concept I know. Then I would put the Hat behind BP. He will take pitches allowing BP to steal bases. Dunn does the same for Lopez.

KronoRed
06-14-2006, 12:26 AM
Someone will pop in to say that it makes the bottom of the order weak, but I disagree and even if it did so what? do we want to continue to see a guy batting cleanup who isn't that great making the last out while Dunn and Kearns wait on deck? I don't.

Kc61
06-14-2006, 12:35 AM
Someone will pop in to say that it makes the bottom of the order weak, but I disagree and even if it did so what? do we want to continue to see a guy batting cleanup who isn't that great making the last out while Dunn and Kearns wait on deck? I don't.

It's not the batting order. It's the hitters. Too many of them are prone to lengthy slumps and are just not steady hitters. Team has lots of power, but lacks consistent, solid hitters.

reds44
06-14-2006, 12:36 AM
It's not the batting order. It's the hitters. Too many of them are prone to lengthy slumps and are just not steady hitters. Team has lots of power, but lacks consistent, solid hitters.
Yep I was saying that back when we went through our first slump. This lineup lacks diversity, it needs more contact hitters and less swing and miss and hit the ball far hitters.

KronoRed
06-14-2006, 01:12 AM
Contact like Sean Casey? :evil:

TeamBoone
06-14-2006, 02:02 AM
Narron tends to structure his nightly lineup according to individual Reds players' batting avg vs the opposing pitcher.

IMHO, this microscopic view should be chucked in favor of a more consistent lineup... the description in the introductory post of this thread is a good place to start, looking at the big picture instead of a game-by-game, pitcher-by-pitcher snapshot approach.

Most winning teams don't go in with a different lineup every night...

TOBTTReds
06-14-2006, 03:24 AM
Yep I was saying that back when we went through our first slump. This lineup lacks diversity, it needs more contact hitters and less swing and miss and hit the ball far hitters.

I feel that way too, but it's not always as it seems. Even those guys slump. Hatteberg right now is in a 4-18 slump (mini though). He went 5 for 23 in his last 8 games of May. Also had a 4-26 slump in the beginning of May. Also started the season 3 for 22. This is all while not slugging too high (.435, not bad though).

I like our hitters, but they slump, and it is VERY contagious.

schroomytunes
06-14-2006, 04:15 AM
I think our best lineup has got to be:

1)Felipe Lopez
2)Brandon Phillips
3)Adam Dunn
4)Ken Griffey
5)Austin Kearns
6)Scott Hatteberg
7)David Ross
8)Edwin Encarnacion

Its a solid lineup with speed at the top, power in the middle, and consistancy at the bottom.

Guacarock
06-14-2006, 05:08 AM
I think our best lineup has got to be:

1)Felipe Lopez
2)Brandon Phillips
3)Adam Dunn
4)Ken Griffey
5)Austin Kearns
6)Scott Hatteberg
7)David Ross
8)Edwin Encarnacion

Its a solid lineup with speed at the top, power in the middle, and consistancy at the bottom.

Looks like a decent blueprint to me, but I'd make these modest tweaks:

1) Felipe Lopez
2) Brandon Phillips/Ryan Freel
3) Adam Dunn
4) Ken Griffey
5) Austin Kearns
6) Edwin Encarnacion
7) Scott Hatteberg/Rich Aurilia
8) David Ross

I'd move EE up because he's a young guy who has demonstrated some capability to plug the gap we're experiencing from the loss of Casey -- a consistent, contact, clutch hitter who doesn't necessarily aim first for the fences to put runs across the plate.

Hatteberg is a proven vet with similar traits, but he'll be gone long before EE and his 16 RBI vs. 38 for EE suggests to me the kid is already better at clearing the tables. Aurilia can also clear the tables, but not set them often enough to justify batting him higher up in the order.

Despite his recent pyrotechnics, I'd still hit Ross 8th. In a way, he becomes our second-tier cleanup man. If he keeps defying gravity and folks' expectations of his journeyman status. Ross' stock will continue to rise, and he can then count on moving up in the pecking order, the same as Phillips.

Jpup
06-14-2006, 06:02 AM
Here is my everyday lineup until EdE comes back:

1. Ryan Freel 3b
2. Scott Hatteberg 1b
3. Adam Dunn lf
4. Ken Griffey Jr. cf
5. Austin Kearns rf
6. Brandon Phillips 2b
7. Felipe Lopez ss
8. David Ross c

Phillips just doesn't get on base enough to bat #1 or #2. There is no way that I can justify not starting Ryan Freel, simply no way. Rich Aurilia has no business sniffing the lineup (.310 OBP). Until Hatteberg (.391 OBP) starts making more outs, he would bat #2 for me everyday of the week.

GAC
06-14-2006, 06:19 AM
Lopez (though he has been peeing me off as of late with his swinging at pitches in the dirt). Still has a .369 OB%. NOTE: when he plays - Freel

Dunn (simply gets on base. Will still get his HRs). LEAVE HIM HERE!

Phillips ( I wanted to put Hatteberg in here with his .391 OB%, but having two relatively slow runners back to back is not a good idea). But with Dunn getting on base, pitchers are gonna have to go after Phillips, and this guy's bat speed amazes me (EE's too).

Jr (the best alternative on this roster as clean-up)

EE (simply makes things happen)

Hatteberg

Kearns

Ross (tough place to put him, but I don't think he'll stay as hot as he's been)


And I thoroughly agree that Aurilia should be no place near the clean-up position vs righties. But I realy don't want him there period. He should be no higher then 6th in this lineup IMO.

Jpup
06-14-2006, 06:33 AM
Lopez (though he has been peeing me off as of late with his swinging at pitches in the dirt). Still has a .369 OB%. NOTE: when he plays - Freel

Dunn (simply gets on base. Will still get his HRs). LEAVE HIM HERE!

Phillips ( I wanted to put Hatteberg in here with his .391 OB%, but having two relatively slow runners back to back is not a good idea)

Jr (the best alternative on this roster as clean-up)

EE (simply makes things happen)

Hatteberg

Kearns

Ross (tough place to put him, but I don't think he'll stay as hot as he's been)


And I thoroughly agree that Aurilia should be no place near the clean-up position vs righties. But I realy don't want him there period. He should be no higher then 6th in this lineup IMO.


How do you put Phillips, with an .826 OPS batting 3rd? You have 5 other guys that should be hitting 3rd before him.

Check out these splits:

Brandon Phillips
2006 Home (111 TPA) .361/.427/.485/.912
2006 Away (105 TPA).260/.276/.460/.736

I agree that Phillips has been very good for the Reds but he is, in no way, the Reds best hitter.

MrCinatit
06-14-2006, 07:17 AM
Narron tends to structure his nightly lineup according to individual Reds players' batting avg vs the opposing pitcher.
IMHO, this microscopic view should be chucked in favor of a more consistent lineup... the description in the introductory post of this thread is a good place to start, looking at the big picture instead of a game-by-game, pitcher-by-pitcher snapshot approach.
Most winning teams don't go in with a different lineup every night...

Agreed.
This is one of many things about Narron which annoys me - the man seems to be forever tinkering with the lineup. And, once he finds a winning combination, he changes it the next night.

GAC
06-14-2006, 08:46 AM
How do you put Phillips, with an .826 OPS batting 3rd? You have 5 other guys that should be hitting 3rd before him.

Check out these splits:

Brandon Phillips
2006 Home (111 TPA) .361/.427/.485/.912
2006 Away (105 TPA).260/.276/.460/.736

I agree that Phillips has been very good for the Reds but he is, in no way, the Reds best hitter.

First off - OPS is such a "raw" and incomplete stat when evaluating a player's overall performance. Even BP states that. ;)

But even an .826 OPS is not terrible.

Your best hitter does not necessarily have to be in the #3 slot. But Phillips is 2nd on the team (behind Lopez) with 61 hits. He has a .353 OB%, speed, with some pop in his bat (7 Hrs), and is tied with Kearns for the team lead with 38 RBIs.

You surround him with guys that get on base, and whom pitchers don't have the opportunity to pitch around, and see what kind of pitches Phillips gets. This kid's bat speed is phenomenal, and I think he is ony gonna get better as time goes.

flyer85
06-14-2006, 08:57 AM
it is disappointing to realize that they have lost 4 or the 5 in close games and in 3 of them Dunn was either on deck or in the hole when they game ended. Other than the bashers I think most would have liked to have seen Dunn get another shot.

KronoRed
06-14-2006, 03:20 PM
it is disappointing to realize that they have lost 4 or the 5 in close games and in 3 of them Dunn was either on deck or in the hole when they game ended. Other than the bashers I think most would have liked to have seen Dunn get another shot.
The bashers would have liked it too, if he had failed they would have been giddy.

But when others fail, well that's just the way it goes ;)

GAC
06-15-2006, 06:16 AM
it is disappointing to realize that they have lost 4 or the 5 in close games and in 3 of them Dunn was either on deck or in the hole when they game ended. Other than the bashers I think most would have liked to have seen Dunn get another shot.

But it seems it's our defense that places us in those positions of needing to have to "get another shot". Sooner or later the odds play against you in those situations IMO. At least they have with this team in '06. Before Dunn's final at-bat in yesterday's game, the Reds were 4-for-40 (.100) with runners in scoring position over their five-game losing streak, including 0-for-the-last-24.