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View Full Version : Is this the defining 10-game stretch?



RedEye
06-16-2006, 10:16 AM
So we've been wondering for awhile if this team is for real. I personally can't think of a better test than 10 straight games against elite competition. We start with probably the best team in baseball, the defending World Champs, the Chicago White Sox, who swept a similar Reds team out of contention in the not too distant past. Next, the New York Metropolitans, who are on an 8-game win streak and look to be poised to unseat the Atlanta Braves this year. Finally, we end with the Cleveland Indians, who are not at their best but always seem to rise to the occasion when they play their Ohio rivals.

What are your hopes for this 10-game stretch? 5-5? 6-4?

Personally, I think anything worse than 5-5 portends bad things for this team in the future. It's time to put up or shut up. And if there are close games, we might be singing the genius of Kriv's Juan Castro trade in a few days!

dabvu2498
06-16-2006, 10:19 AM
It's not a home stand... unfortunately only the 1st 3 games are at home.

RedEye
06-16-2006, 10:25 AM
Oops... thanks, dabvu2498. I've altered the thread title.

cumberlandreds
06-16-2006, 10:53 AM
I think 5-5 over the next ten games would be very good for this team. If they do that it should insure that that they are still in the race for the divsion and certainly the wild card. If they can avoid a 3-7 span or worse we all should still feel good about this team.

Tommyjohn25
06-16-2006, 12:53 PM
It's gonna be a tough stretch without a doubt, but this team has risen to the occasion every time so far in the "must win" games. I gotta say, I have a good feeling.

reds44
06-16-2006, 01:01 PM
I'd take 5-5 in a heartbeat.

steig
06-16-2006, 01:17 PM
i don't think I would call this 10 game stretch a defining period of the season. All stretches of the season are important. The reds could go 2 - 8 against in series against the pirates, brewers, and cubs and be out of first by 8 games if st. louis played well. Any period of time like that defines when the team flopped for made a huge move but it is after the fact that you decide how it defined the team. If the reds go 5 -5 we are just not shooting ourselves in the foot. If the team is gong to contend then I expect 6 - 5 over every 10 game stretch during the season. If the team wants to make a statement here then they better go 7 - 5 at least and beating the Mets is more important than beating the White Sox.

zombie-a-go-go
06-16-2006, 02:02 PM
we might be singing the genius of Kriv's Juan Castro trade in a few days!

That will never happen. ;)

I thought the defining stretch would be our last road-trip, but it's really impossible to tell what series of games will "define" this team until closer to the end of the season, IMO.

Were the Redlegs as good as they were on the road against HOU and STL? Or were they as bad as they played - anywhere, really - ahainst CHC?

The jury is still out.

Redhook
06-16-2006, 02:11 PM
This team has proved to be capable of beating good teams so I don't think this is a defining stretch. It'd be nice if we play well and win some of these games, but this team is so erratic I don't know what to expect. They could lose 9 of 10 then come back the next week and win 6-10 in a row. Who knows? I still think this team can compete for the wild card, I doubt they'll beat the Cards over the next 3 1/2 months for the Central, but the wild card should be wide open. Two or three key trades to shore up the pitching staff would do wonders for this team.

KronoRed
06-16-2006, 04:56 PM
It's the most important 10 game stretch of the year

Hoosier Red
06-16-2006, 05:30 PM
Definately the most important ten game stretch of the season, right EDSKIN?
:)

RedEye
06-16-2006, 05:33 PM
i don't think I would call this 10 game stretch a defining period of the season. All stretches of the season are important. The reds could go 2 - 8 against in series against the pirates, brewers, and cubs and be out of first by 8 games if st. louis played well. Any period of time like that defines when the team flopped for made a huge move but it is after the fact that you decide how it defined the team. If the reds go 5 -5 we are just not shooting ourselves in the foot. If the team is gong to contend then I expect 6 - 5 over every 10 game stretch during the season. If the team wants to make a statement here then they better go 7 - 5 at least and beating the Mets is more important than beating the White Sox.

I'm assuming your mean 6-4 and 7-3, right? But your point is well taken. I'd be doing somersaults if the team came out 6-4 after the next 10. I have to disagree with you about the importance of the series, though. No doubt, it is also important to beat the Pirates and Brewers. But winning series against the ChiSox and Mets could add confidence to this team, something that can never be measured by statistics. Sure, it all comes down to how many you win and lose in the end, but beating teams like this puts us in a better mental state come playoff time because no one can say you got where you were cheaply.

oregonred
06-16-2006, 06:10 PM
It's the most important 10 game stretch of the year

Agree. Getting out of this tough stretch 5-5 (maybe even 4-6) would be huge.

Will be a great test for the starting staff as the current 4.32 team ERA and the other associated key splits (K/9, K/BB, WHIP, OPS) are actually respectable (giddy by Reds fans standards).

The offense may need to carry 2-3 of the games as these teams can rake, otherwise it could get ugly over the next week.

The hope is that the 2006 Reds team is a bit of an enigma and hopefully they'll once again step it up a notch against the Sox and Mets over the next week.

kyred14
06-16-2006, 06:22 PM
Anything more than 5-5 in this stretch would be gravy. What little chance the Reds have of making the playoffs could be killed over the next 10 days.

steig
06-16-2006, 06:26 PM
I'm assuming your mean 6-4 and 7-3, right? But your point is well taken. I'd be doing somersaults if the team came out 6-4 after the next 10. I have to disagree with you about the importance of the series, though. No doubt, it is also important to beat the Pirates and Brewers. But winning series against the ChiSox and Mets could add confidence to this team, something that can never be measured by statistics. Sure, it all comes down to how many you win and lose in the end, but beating teams like this puts us in a better mental state come playoff time because no one can say you got where you were cheaply.

Opps, sorry about the math error. I understand your point about gaining confidence by beating the big time teams but the reds have had so many problems in the past with the little teams beating them and absolutely killing us in the standings. The Reds have to be able to focus on the little teams just as much as the big teams. We've had great runs against the cardinals and houston this season but the cubs have killed us the last two series. I think this team is good and could contend for the division title but right now I don't see them as a title contender, especially with the bullpen status.

oregonred
06-16-2006, 06:44 PM
Anything more than 5-5 in this stretch would be gravy. What little chance the Reds have of making the playoffs could be killed over the next 10 days.

OTOH, The Cards begin a similar stretch starting next week (at Chisox, at Detroit, Indians at home).

Let's all hope they get knocked around a lot vs. the better AL Central teams

RedEye
06-16-2006, 07:14 PM
Opps, sorry about the math error. I understand your point about gaining confidence by beating the big time teams but the reds have had so many problems in the past with the little teams beating them and absolutely killing us in the standings. The Reds have to be able to focus on the little teams just as much as the big teams. We've had great runs against the cardinals and houston this season but the cubs have killed us the last two series. I think this team is good and could contend for the division title but right now I don't see them as a title contender, especially with the bullpen status.

If memory serves me, this same group of players was kicked to the floor by both the ChiSox and the Indians in recent years. Wasn't it the 2004 team that got swept by Chicago and then never contended again?

RedEye
06-17-2006, 10:38 AM
Okay... so now we need to go 5-4 in order to finish 5-5. Let's just wipe that loss from our memory banks and talk about the games ahead, shall we? Wow, that was embarrassing.

oregonred
06-18-2006, 02:35 AM
5-3

Should have been 4-4... Defense + Bad Pen = Uh oh time.

At least Harang/Arroyo get 4 of the next 7 starts.

MattyHo4Life
06-18-2006, 08:41 AM
OTOH, The Cards begin a similar stretch starting next week (at Chisox, at Detroit, Indians at home).

Let's all hope they get knocked around a lot vs. the better AL Central teams

The Cards are considering putting Reyes in the rotation for this stretch. He would start against the White Sox on Thursday.

RedEye
06-18-2006, 08:47 PM
Ummm... well, now we need to go 5-2 in order to finish at .500 for the trip. 3 out of 4 from the Mets and 2 out of 3 from the Tribe? Somehow I'm not confident that this could happen.

I can't believe how bad this bullpen is and how much they have been letting the starters down. Almost every starter, including Claussen, should have at least 2 more victories. In the Lizard's case, it should be like 4 more.

Ergh.

flyer85
06-18-2006, 08:53 PM
The June swoon is in full swing

reds44
06-18-2006, 09:03 PM
Last time I thought we were in a swoon we went out and won 8 in a row mostly on the road. I am praying we do something close to that on this upcoming trip.

MattyHo4Life
06-18-2006, 09:42 PM
You guys should have more confidence in your team. They are better than you give them credit for.

RedEye
06-18-2006, 10:18 PM
You guys should have more confidence in your team. They are better than you give them credit for.

I think we are just wary because the 2002 and 2004 editions flopped right about now.

dabvu2498
06-18-2006, 10:50 PM
Definition=crappy

MattyHo4Life
06-19-2006, 12:21 AM
I think we are just wary because the 2002 and 2004 editions flopped right about now.

It makes sense. When you get burned so often, you begin to expect it. The Reds have a good team though. Astros fans are the ones that should be worried about their team.

RedEye
06-19-2006, 12:49 AM
It makes sense. When you get burned so often, you begin to expect it. The Reds have a good team though. Astros fans are the ones that should be worried about their team.

I hope you're right, I really do. Actually, the Cards have surprised me this year in that they are still posting quality wins without looking so imposing. Without Pujols, it seems that they are winning with smoke and mirrors. For some reason neither the line-up nor the rotation scare me anymore.

CrackerJack
06-19-2006, 12:58 AM
It makes sense. When you get burned so often, you begin to expect it. The Reds have a good team though. Astros fans are the ones that should be worried about their team.

Hopefully a sign of things to come during the next couple of years, with some pitching help.

But I can't see this team going anywhere. They're something like 20-25 since the end of April.

Redhook
06-19-2006, 08:47 AM
It makes sense. When you get burned so often, you begin to expect it. The Reds have a good team though. Astros fans are the ones that should be worried about their team.

I still believe the Reds have a good team too. But we desperately need to make a couple of trades for good pitchers.

The Astros aren't the team they were last year, but I don't know why the fans should be worried? I'd be excited if I was a 'Stros fan. They're getting Clemens back soon. I wish we had that to look forward too. I do think they'll have problems in the upcoming years, but this year they're in decent shape to contend for the wild card again.

Jpup
06-19-2006, 09:45 AM
It makes sense. When you get burned so often, you begin to expect it. The Reds have a good team though. Astros fans are the ones that should be worried about their team.

The Reds have a good offense, 2 good starters, and that's it. A good team, they are not.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 10:59 AM
It makes sense. When you get burned so often, you begin to expect it. The Reds have a good team though. The bullpen is awful and anyone with a modicum of baseball knowledge (sorry Marty) could see the train wreck that was coming. The problem is the front office doesn't seem inclined to actually attempt to solve the situation. Bringing in guys like Yan and Mays is not an attempt to solve anything.

MattyHo4Life
06-19-2006, 11:11 AM
The bullpen is awful and anyone with a modicum of baseball knowledge (sorry Marty) could see the train wreck that was coming. The problem is the front office doesn't seem inclined to actually attempt to solve the situation. Bringing in guys like Yan and Mays is not an attempt to solve anything.

A bullpen isn't difficult to fix. Look at what the Cardinals have done over the years. Year after year they have a good bullpen, even though they don't ever add any big named relievers like the Cubs do. They go after guys like Randy Flores and Josh Hancock. The Reds need to stop bringing in washed up vets like Yan and White, and give some younger guys a chance. The Reds have made some bad moves in that department, but a bullpen is a lot easier to fix than the rotation is. In the past the Reds have had a horrible rotation with zero good starting pitchers. Having Arroyo and Harang in the starting rotation makes a huge difference.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 11:25 AM
The Reds need to stop bringing in washed up vets like Yan and White, and give some younger guys a chance. exactly, and pay attention to HR rates because that is the main key to having a solid pen, you can't have relievers that love to give up HRs


but a bullpen is a lot easier to fix than the rotation is. the mystifying part is that the FO has been so unwilling to make any substantial changes. They have an extrememly hot reliever in AA (relief performance tends to be highly variable from year to year) yet they don't even put him in AAA much less the majors.

If it was me I would get rid of Burns, Yan and Hammonds immediately and turn over the jobs to Shafer, Belisle and Shack.

MattyHo4Life
06-19-2006, 11:26 AM
The Astros aren't the team they were last year, but I don't know why the fans should be worried? I'd be excited if I was a 'Stros fan. They're getting Clemens back soon. I wish we had that to look forward too. I do think they'll have problems in the upcoming years, but this year they're in decent shape to contend for the wild card again.

I've been saying this all year...even when the Astros had their hot start. They are not a very good team. Here are a couple of reasons the Astros fans should be worried.

* They just lost 2 of 3 games to the Royals.
* Their offense is Berkman, Ensberg, and pray for rain.
* Andy Pettitte has a 5.44 ERA
* Taylor Bucholz has a worse ERA than Andy Pettitte
* The Astros starting rotation ranks 12 out of the 16 NL teams in ERA
* The Reds starting rotation ranks 5th and the Cards rank 6th in the NL

I don't see much for the Astros fans to get excited about. I don't think Clemens will be much of a factor. To be honest, he may be a huge disapointment. Clemens had a great year last year... no question. He is a year older though, and that will catch up with him sooner or later. I think he will have a rough season.

dabvu2498
06-19-2006, 11:35 AM
* The Reds starting rotation ranks 5th and the Cards rank 6th in the NL


However, the Reds will have a difficult time overcoming the stench arising from their bullpen, while the Astros pen will find ways to keep them in games or finish off games they're already winning. Ditto with the Cards.

MattyHo4Life
06-19-2006, 11:37 AM
However, the Reds will have a difficult time overcoming the stench arising from their bullpen, while the Astros pen will find ways to keep them in games or finish off games they're already winning. Ditto with the Cards.


The Astros have a horrible pen this year too. Brad "Lit Up" Lidge isn't what he used to be.

MattyHo4Life
06-19-2006, 12:38 PM
If it was me I would get rid of Burns, Yan and Hammonds immediately and turn over the jobs to Shafer, Belisle and Shack.

You can't consider a reliever good just because he he had a good season 5 years ago. That seems to be the Reds thinking. Thise reliever once had a good season in the Majors, so he must be a good pitcher. A minor league pitcher can't be as a good as a guy with Major League experience...right? The Reds pen would probably b much better of they used those kids in the minors instead of scraping the bottom of the barrell with these vets. There is a reason why nobody else seems to want them.

RedEye
06-21-2006, 05:10 PM
1-4 so far. So I guess we should shoot for 4-6, right? Finishing up 4-2 is about as good as I can imagine this teaming doing.

Ltlabner
06-21-2006, 05:25 PM
This team, now that we have the benefit of several months of history, is nothing but medicore to slightly above medicore. We still are plagued with the problems DanO has saddled us with (allthough they are being cleaned out), along with new ones such as the amazingly horrific bullpen.

Thus, I don't we'll see a serries from which everything falls into place or falls apart. We'll grind out the season with some hot streaks and some dreadfull streaks and end up around .500 +/- some games.

All that gibberish being said, I don't think there will be a "defining serries" this year.

RedEye
06-21-2006, 05:45 PM
I think if we keep losing (or start winning) on this 10-game stretch against contenders, it very well could be moment we remember as "when it all fell apart" or "when it came together".

Of course, any writing of history of any sort involves positing subjective 'ruptures' when there really is continuity to be seen all around. You could also say that the 1999 Reds 'always had' the problems that ended up plaguing them in the season-ending series in Milwaukee or the final game against the Mets.

All I'm saying is that as a amateur Reds historians, this may be that moment. And, if the Reds emerge from this stretch as a 44-33 or a 38-39 club, this very well could be that moment.

That is all.