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View Full Version : What do the stat guys (Steel, Raisor,etc) think about Hatteburg



fielder's choice
06-19-2006, 11:43 AM
Alan Cutler was arguing he should be on the bench because he doesn't drive in runs. I think he is doing a pretty good job, though, based on his OBP, and we have other players that do drive in a lot of runs. So, how valuable is he, in your opinion?

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 11:45 AM
I'm not a huge stat guy, but I'll tell you what I do know.

Getting on base is good, and increases the likelihood and chances that you will score runs. The more baserunners the better. If you get on base, the runs will come. We have enough guys on this team with plenty of power.

If Hatte weren't so slow, he'd be a perfect 2 spot guy..

Johnny Footstool
06-19-2006, 11:51 AM
Hatteberg has been surprisingly good at the plate, although I'd like to see more SLG from a first baseman.

The problem is that Hatteberg is playing where Dunn should be playing, and having him on the field actually keeps Freel off the field (Dunn at 1B, Freel in LF/CF). I'd rather have Freel playing every day.

Heath
06-19-2006, 12:10 PM
Hatteberg has been surprisingly good at the plate, although I'd like to see more SLG from a first baseman.

The problem is that Hatteberg is playing where Dunn should be playing, and having him on the field actually keeps Freel off the field (Dunn at 1B, Freel in LF/CF). I'd rather have Freel playing every day.


Then there's the Chris Denorfia Experience in AAA waiting for Dunn to go to first and Junior to a corner.

I have a feeling that Ryan Freel's days in Cincinnati are seriously numbered.

boognish
06-19-2006, 12:25 PM
Having a guy with a high OBP and a relatively low SLG at a "power" position is definitely acceptable since the Reds get above league norm power from defensive positions.

Agree with JF's position regarding Dunn moving to first...but as long as he remains in the OF, a player like Mr. Hat is useful for the right price (I think of a cheap Sean Casey). He is very close to Freel-type production for his career without the added benefit of speed, versatility, or range in the field:

2006:

Mr. Hat: .404/.433/.837
Freel: .374/.418/.792

Career:

Mr. Hat: .358/.404/.762
Freel .370/.383/.753

As for the RBIs, the number is bound to go up as long as Hatteberg continues to avoid outs at this rate...he'll run into a few more at GAB in the hot summer months and is likely to approach 60 RBI; not a bad total for a part-time player.

Alan Cutler is a fool and never looks at even a representative part of the whole story...he latches on to one number that fits his agenda and rails continually on it. Hatteberg has been reasonably productive this season, and is well above his career norms. Cutler should enjoy it and leave the guy alone.

wheels
06-19-2006, 12:41 PM
I agree with Boognish's take 100%.

I also really like seeing him come to the plate as a pinch hitter when the chips are down.

He doesn't really ever seem to get himself out, and late in games, that's a huge asset.

pedro
06-19-2006, 12:49 PM
I agree with Boognish's take 100%.

I also really like seeing him come to the plate as a pinch hitter when the chips are down.

He doesn't really ever seem to get himself out, and late in games, that's a huge asset.


yup, Hatteberg has a been a pleasant surprise IMO. I also think he's played OK at first. (I was never in love with Casey's glove over there)

RedsManRick
06-19-2006, 12:54 PM
I get so tired of people using RBI as a proxy for run production. Offensively, run production is what we should be worried about, not who is scoring them or who is driving them in particularly. We don't lack for people capable of driving people in. Besides, it's not like he's completley bereft of power. He does have 17 extra base hits. His skill set is just not suited to be batting where he is. Put him 2nd, not 5th or 6th.

wheels
06-19-2006, 12:56 PM
I've been very pleased with him defensively.

He's proven to be a very good pickup, and possibly someone who could bring value in trade when the Reds officially drop out of the race.

Wayne's got some opportunities to jump start the rebuilding process if he deems it necessary.

Hatteberg, Aurilia, LaRue (if he picks it up offensively), Milton, possibly Hammond....Those guys could combine to net them something substantial.

wheels
06-19-2006, 12:58 PM
I get so tired of people using RBI as a proxy for run production. Offensively, run production is what we should be worried about, not who is scoring them or who is driving them in particularly. We don't lack for people capable of driving people in. Besides, it's not like he's completley bereft of power. He does have 17 extra base hits. His skill set is just not suited to be batting where he is. Put him 2nd, not 5th or 6th.

Yup.

Too much concern is paid to breaking up righties/lefties instead of maximizing each player's abilities when the lineup card is made up.

It's Narron's biggest flaw.

Guacarock
06-19-2006, 01:12 PM
I have a feeling that Ryan Freel's days in Cincinnati are seriously numbered.

Not necessarily. If the Reds are contemplating any trade involving Junior, Kearns or Lopez this summer or off-season, then Freel is a good insurance policy to retain.

He can, after all, play RF, CF, LF, 3B and 2B, the latter allowing Phillips to slide over to SS should Lopez be dealt.

If Junior or Kearns are dealt, I would call up Denorfia to get his shot at the Big Show, but I still can see the value in keeping Freel.

Players get injured or underperform all the time. With as many positions as Ryan can handle, he really protects our flanks.

MWM
06-19-2006, 01:17 PM
Cutler knows even less about sports than Andy Furman. That's hard to do, even if your'e trying.

TeamBoone
06-19-2006, 01:40 PM
yup, Hatteberg has a been a pleasant surprise IMO. I also think he's played OK at first. (I was never in love with Casey's glove over there)

I'm surprised by this. IMHO, Casey's glove was/is his greatest asset (on the field).

OnBaseMachine
06-19-2006, 01:42 PM
Anybody that posts a .404 OBP is fine by me. Would I like for him to hit for more power? Of course, but I can't complain about a guy with a .837 OPS who is making only 750,000 dollars this year.

pedro
06-19-2006, 01:51 PM
I'm surprised by this. IMHO, Casey's glove was/is his greatest asset (on the field).

IMO he couldn't scoop a ball in the dirt to save his life. (at least the last two years when it seemed to me that he regressed)

TeamBoone
06-19-2006, 01:53 PM
IMO he couldn't scoop a ball in the dirt to save his life. (at least the last two years when it seemed to me that he regressed)

Wow! And I think he was really good at it.

smith288
06-19-2006, 01:56 PM
If my math's right, I have Mr Hatte scoring 45% of the time (minus his own homeruns) when he gets on base compared to Dunn's 43% of the time (minus his own homeruns).

Freel only checks in with a 35%. What does that mean? Either Freel isnt as productive on the basepaths as we think or those hitting behind him hate him. Dunno.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 02:03 PM
I can't get over the love for Hatteberg. For all the talk about his OBP, he is on pace for a .294-9-39 year with 61 runs scored in 499 PAs. Nothing special. And it doesn't matter what kind of bargain he is b/c of his low salary...those numbers are not good. His OBP hasn't translated into great run production.

And Smith, how did you come up with that calculation? Hatte has 53 hits + 33 BBs= 86 times on base. Minus 4 HRs = 82 times on base. He has scored 26 runs - 4 HRs = 22 runs scored. 26.8%.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:07 PM
Anybody that posts a .404 OBP is fine by me.the question is will that continue? Or is regression to the mean likely to hit home hard in the 2nd half? Hatteberg died in the 2nd half last year (OPS .610).

I am very skeptical about what Hatteberg is likely to produce for the remainder of the season. This may well be a time to thank your good fortune and cut and run.

smith288
06-19-2006, 02:08 PM
I can't get over the love for Hatteberg. For all the talk about his OBP, he is on pace for a .294-9-39 year with 61 runs scored in 499 PAs. Nothing special. And it doesn;t matter what kind of bargain he is b/c of his low salary...those numbers are not good. His OBP hasn't translated into great run production.

And Smith, how did you come up with that calculation? Hatte has 53 hits + 33 BBs= 86 times on base. Minus 4 HRs = 82 times on base. He has scored 26 runs - 4 HRs = 22 runs scored. 26.8%.
My bad... I took H+2b+3b+bb

H is all of those together.

dabvu2498
06-19-2006, 02:14 PM
the question is will that continue? Or is regression to the mean likely to hit home hard in the 2nd half? Hatteberg died in the 2nd half last year (OPS .610).

I am very skeptical about what Hatteberg is likely to produce for the remainder of the season. This may well be a time to thank your good fortune and cut and run.
I've thought about him as possible trade bait, if "the great slide" continues. Someone will need a LH threat off the bench for a possible post season run and may give us a project/prospect or two in return.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 02:19 PM
Someone will need a LH threat off the bench for a possible post season run and may give us a project/prospect or two in return.

I almost threw up my lunch.

smith288
06-19-2006, 02:27 PM
I almost threw up my lunch.
Cmon, the guy aint Harang bad. Hatteburg also isnt Pujols but he is a quality guy who can get on the base as a potential run. Thats one of the major points of baseball.

dabvu2498
06-19-2006, 02:29 PM
I almost threw up my lunch.
I'm not saying we'd get a potential front line starter or anything of that nature... but another Elizardo Ramirez and someone to pick up a chunk of his 750,000 wouldn't be bad.

That might also let the Dunn Experience at 1st begin along with the Deno Phenomenon.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:34 PM
Cmon, the guy aint Harang bad. Hatteburg also isnt Pujols but he is a quality guy who can get on the base as a potential run. Thats one of the major points of baseball.hatty could actually be a valuable pinch hitter. he is the kind of hitter this team could use off the bench (instead of QM, Castro, etc).

However, I wouldn't expect he would bring much.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 02:38 PM
hatty could actually be a valuable pinch hitter. he is the kind of hitter this team could use off the bench (instead of QM, Castro, etc).

However, I wouldn't expect he would bring much.
Agreed 100%. He should be a part-timer.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:45 PM
Agreed 100%. He should be a part-timer.this team could be reconfigured to help today and position for 07-08 by moving Dunn to 1b and inserting Denorfia in the OF. They would have 6 position players at 26 and younger. This would allow Hatty, Freel and Aurilia to be role players and pinch hitters which would give the Reds an excellent bench instead of the awful one they have now. The entire defense thing is a bit of a red herring as they have been much better this year at converting BIP(balls in play) into outs. The focus should be on finding some releivers who actually have some long term value instead of selecting the "flotsam of the day" to man the bullpen.

The best long term solution would be to deal Jr and put Denorfia in CF, keep Dunn in LF and leave 1b open for Votto (he really projects well because of his power and ability to take a walk).

boognish
06-19-2006, 03:16 PM
Hatteberg is better as a bottom of the roster type of player, but in spite of the lack of RBI, he is still producing at an acceptable rate. Even though the Reds are a patient group, having a veteran like Hatteberg who has made a career of waiting for his pitch and knowing the strike zone is valuable...and he is currently producing.

As flyer said, he has historically had poor second halves, but he isn't quite playing every day, and that should help from a fatigue standpoint, and the homer-friendly confines of GAB should give him a small boost to his SLG. I look for him to remain productive, but don't see them able to flip him for much...but I do not consider trades and player exchange value very accurately.

wheels
06-19-2006, 03:19 PM
I have a feeling he and/or Aurilia could net them more than Randa did last year.

Not that they should be considered more valuable than Randa at the time, but DanO totally got fleeced in that deal.

I think each of those guys could be flipped for a decent to good prospect.

boognish
06-19-2006, 03:23 PM
I think each of those guys could be flipped for a decent to good prospect.

So what do you think, wheels? I would be thrilled with an MLB-ready bullpen arm.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 03:24 PM
and the homer-friendly confines of GAB should give him a small boost to his SLG. actually GABP is likely to suppress his SLG% as he will lose a lot more doubles without much of a push in HRs.

BTW, PECOTA projections for Casey were higher with PNC (BP wrote a bit about it as most expected that moving away from to PNC would project lower numbers for Casey) as his home park instead of GABP because a doubles hitter benefits a lot more from those large alleys thatn he loses because of of farther away walls.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 03:25 PM
and he is currently producing.

Could you expand on that? Drawing walks does not automatically mean you are producing. He is not scoring runs at a good rate and is not driving in runs at even a horrible rate. So I cannot see the value of him playing on a daily basis. And if he does, he should be hitting no higher than 7th.

boognish
06-19-2006, 03:28 PM
actually GABP is likely to suppress his SLG% as he will lose a lot more doubles without much of a push in HRs.

BTW, PECOTA projections for Casey were higher with PNC (BP wrote a bit about it as most expected that moving away from to PNC would project lower numbers for Casey) as his home park instead of GABP because a doubles hitter benefits a lot more from those large alleys thatn he loses because of of farther away walls.

Thanks for the info...does the much smaller foul territory have a positive impact? I would imagine it would be OBP-neutral in combo with the way the grass slows grounders, but I am relatively new to the park factor thing.

I think it is a little counter-intuitive that Mr. Hat would stand to lose twice as many HR as he gains from GAB, but I am not looking at the data and am likely suffering from over-rating the park effect on HR :)

flyer85
06-19-2006, 03:33 PM
I think it is a little counter-intuitiveI would agree but IIRC the push in SLG% from playing 81 games in PNC versus GABP was more than just a little and a bit surprising. Otherwise I am sure BP would not have taken the time to write about the difference in projections.

boognish
06-19-2006, 03:51 PM
Could you expand on that? Drawing walks does not automatically mean you are producing. He is not scoring runs at a good rate and is not driving in runs at even a horrible rate. So I cannot see the value of him playing on a daily basis. And if he does, he should be hitting no higher than 7th.

I'll look to :)

Part 1 is that looking at his OBP and SLG are both slightly above his career numbers (posted on page 1)...what I have not proven but what I think is below:

My hypothesis: since he is only making outs 59.5% of the time, out of the five-hole he is creating extra opportunities for the guys behind him (typically RBI leaders Phillips and EE, at times Kearns).

This is kind of like the Dunn effect, but what is anomalous is what you alluded to earlier--Mr. Hat has been on base 86 times, and has scored 26...four of each being HRs.

I say he is "producing" because he is giving an OPS of .837, which is slightly below his production with runners on base (.414/.457/.871, 84 PA), meaning simply he is a good cog in the lineup and prolonging innings. He will likely never be an RBI machine--career high of 82--but RBI are largely incumbent on the situation. Mr. Hat is what he is, and there are far less valuable things to have in a lineup chock full of good power hitters than someone with one definable skill...prolonging the inning. I don't think it wise to expect him to become a different player based on the fact that Narron doesn't construct a lineup effectively (my opinion).

Whether I proved anything, I don't know...:D

I think I think that his 180-odd PA have been productive ones overall, in spite of his low RBI. 17 XBH is just about average.

wheels
06-19-2006, 03:53 PM
So what do you think, wheels? I would be thrilled with an MLB-ready bullpen arm.

Krivsky's gotta be able to recognize a guy that might be flying under the radar of a given organization.

Teams let young guys with potential go all of the time. It just depends on the trading partner.

I'm going to add that DanO had the right idea last year. It's just that he failed to recognize what type of pitcher he actually needed. Heck, he could have even landed a slick fielder from a lower level if he would have looked deeper.

boognish
06-19-2006, 03:57 PM
wheels, gotta agree...was Krivsky instrumental in the Pierzynski to the Giants deal? I'd like to get a Liriano/Nathan return from some unwilling partner...

wheels
06-19-2006, 03:59 PM
wheels, gotta agree...was Krivsky instrumental in the Pierzynski to the Giants deal? I'd like to get a Liriano/Nathan return from some unwilling partner...

That's exactly right.

We're going to learn a lot about Wayne over the next two months.

It should be fun.

RedsManRick
06-19-2006, 04:01 PM
Getting on base (ie. not getting out) is job #1 of every single hitter. Job #2 is getting as many bases as you can while doing so. Job #3 is scoring once you've reached base successfully.

As one should (almost) never purposefully give up an out to advance a runner, the advancement of runners already on base is a result of achieving the above stated #1 & 2 goals. Goal #3 is achieved primarily based on the ability of the guys behind you to do #1 & 2.

Hatteberg is first in goal #1 (min 150 AB, 9 players).
Hatteberg is seventh in goal #2 (ahead of both Freel and Lopez).
Hatteberg is last in goal #3 measured by R/(H+BB).

To me that screams of misuse by the manager. If you allow the basic assumption that while base running matters, it's your ability to gain bases through extra base hits and the performance of players behind you that primarily account for your run scoring production, then Narron is grossly misusing him.

- Hatteberg gets on base A LOT
- Hatteberg does not usually get more than first base by himself through extra base hits or stolen bases
- Hatteberg sees a lot of pitches (4 per AB)
- Hatteberg does not tend to drive in runs due to lower IsoP

All of this screams out that this player should NOT be batting low in the order if you want to maximize his skills. Is Hatteberg being productive? Yes. Could he be produce more runs if his skills were better utilized? Yes.

vaticanplum
06-19-2006, 04:33 PM
Getting on base (ie. not getting out) is job #1 of every single hitter. Job #2 is getting as many bases as you can while doing so. Job #3 is scoring once you've reached base successfully.

As one should (almost) never purposefully give up an out to advance a runner, the advancement of runners already on base is a result of achieving the above stated #1 & 2 goals. Goal #3 is achieved primarily based on the ability of the guys behind you to do #1 & 2.

Hatteberg is first in goal #1 (min 150 AB, 9 players).
Hatteberg is seventh in goal #2 (ahead of both Freel and Lopez).
Hatteberg is last in goal #3 measured by R/(H+BB).

To me that screams of misuse by the manager. If you allow the basic assumption that while base running matters, it's your ability to gain bases through extra base hits and the performance of players behind you that primarily account for your run scoring production, then Narron is grossly misusing him.

- Hatteberg gets on base A LOT
- Hatteberg does not usually get more than first base by himself through extra base hits or stolen bases
- Hatteberg sees a lot of pitches (4 per AB)
- Hatteberg does not tend to drive in runs due to lower IsoP

All of this screams out that this player should NOT be batting low in the order if you want to maximize his skills. Is Hatteberg being productive? Yes. Could he be produce more runs if his skills were better utilized? Yes.

Bingo. Hatteberg is doing exactly what he was hired to do. We joke a lot about veteran leadership, but I think this term is valid when used not in the sense of "intangibles", but in the sense of someone who consistently provides a specific skill. He's doing just that, and he's doing it at a good price, and we needed it on this team...maybe a bit more so when we acquired him than we do now. He has the potential to help the lineup in a narrow, specific way when he's used well. Given the fact that his assets -- high on-base percentage, high number of pitcher per at bat -- are so established and obvious, using him well should really not be that difficult.

I love him on this team, I think he was a great pickup and a very nice balance to much of our lineup. But I'd be happy to see him go for a good bullpen arm. Could we get that? Yes, I think, if a team had a specific need for Hatteberg. Again, they'd know exactly what they'd be getting, much more so than on our end where I think it'd be either a young questionable arm or an old questionable arm. But it might be a chance worth taking. It's only going to be a question of a) how Narron continues to use (or misuse) him over the next month and a half, thus making him look as attractive (or unattractive) as he can, and b) what contending teams have a need for Hatteberg in their lineups.

Falls City Beer
06-19-2006, 04:38 PM
It should be fun.

It could be very deflating as well. I'm not saying it's going to be, but Krivsky has shown himself to be un-immune (?) to clouded thinking.

He certainly doesn't crap gold cufflinks like Pena for Arroyo every time.

My guess is that Krivsky will frustrate nearly as often as satisfy on the trade front (which is where I think most of his MLB players will come from). Just as long as he gets it right 55-60% of the time, he'll build a winner.

wheels
06-19-2006, 04:44 PM
It could be very deflating as well. I'm not saying it's going to be, but Krivsky has shown himself to be un-immune (?) to clouded thinking.

He certainly doesn't crap gold cufflinks like Pena for Arroyo every time.

My guess is that Krivsky will frustrate nearly as often as satisfy on the trade front (which is where I think most of his MLB players will come from). Just as long as he gets it right 55-60% of the time, he'll build a winner.

I can agree with that.

I still think we can hold out hope for his trading skills because we haven't seen him work a deadline deal (or not) yet.

Jury's still out, but your hypothesis holds plenty of water.

boognish
06-19-2006, 04:48 PM
An accurate outlook.

Either way, we get to analyze it vs. the long term plan, or even determine if there is a plan; which is much more refreshing than the knee-jerk reactions you typically hear on the radio.

Encouraged by Krivs strengthening the roster with Ross, Phillips, and Arroyo...none of which are probably as good as they have shown the last 12 weeks but are upgrades to the roster. Castro, the presence of McCracken, Yan, etc. aren't encouraging, but at the same time he inherited a mess and as long as there aren't egregious mistakes that adversely effect the 3 to 5-year plan and overall organization, it should be fun.