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reds44
06-19-2006, 12:41 PM
http://www.daytondailynews.com/sport...snotesweb.html


Bailey to Chattanooga

Homer Bailey is going to be promoted this week from Class A Sarasota to Class AA Chattanooga, and if manager Jerry Narron had his way the promotion would be an airline ticket to Cincinnati.

After hearing that Bailey struck out the side on 12 pitches during a one-inning appearances Saturday in the Florida State League All-Star game, Narron said, "I kid (general manager) Wayne Krivsky that when I get the minor-league reports every day and Bailey pitches, they white-out his results so I don't see them."

Said Krivsky, "Bailey's next start will be in Chattanooga."


wow

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 01:13 PM
Nice...good luck to Homer.

MWM
06-19-2006, 01:16 PM
I don't like it. Let the guy have some sustained success. He got hit pretty hard in several outings. This formula has failed in the past and I see no reason not to let him grow a little against hitters he overmatches.

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 01:35 PM
MWM, I agree and disagree with you.. I agree because I would have liked to see him have a few more good starts in a row before a promotion. I disagree though, becuase he wasnt really ever hit hard, its just when he walked guys, he got in trouble. When he was on, the FSL could not touch him, at all. So if he is going to be nearly unhittable in the FSL when he is on, promote him.

MWM
06-19-2006, 01:41 PM
I like to see guys absolutely dominate for a good half season before they're promoted, unless they're playing at a level where they're a bit old. Otherwise, let them experience domination for a long period of time. That's how they refine their stuff. If he makes the leap and struggles he's right back to making adjustments again.

M2
06-19-2006, 01:54 PM
I like to see guys absolutely dominate for a good half season before they're promoted, unless they're playing at a level where they're a bit old. Otherwise, let them experience domination for a long period of time. That's how they refine their stuff. If he makes the leap and struggles he's right back to making adjustments again.

Can't say it better than that.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 01:55 PM
He has been pretty darn good down there. Maybe not dominant, but close. 1.00 WHIP and 79/22 K/BB ratio. I'm happy with the move, but we'll see what happens. Any guesses as to when his first start will be?

lollipopcurve
06-19-2006, 01:59 PM
I think they're moving a bit too quickly with him. Classic Reds. In my mind, though, the key to Homer's development will be the circumstances under which he debuts in the majors (I mean, we pretty much know he'll be there before too long). They absolutely have to bring him in as much out of the spotlight as necessary -- whether that's at the back of a rotation which has been upgraded with the addition of 1-2 name guys or in the bullpen, they must ensure that the burden of leading the pitching staff is on other guys, and that's for a period of years before, ideally, Homer could take it on. Unfortunately, right now there is an expectation out there in the media surrounding the team, and by extension the fanbase, that Homer is destined to be the next (since when?) Reds ace. Big mistake. I'd love to see Krivsky get a real live ace in here who grabs the spotlight, because it's a guy like that who can ease the pressure on everybody else, most notably a young talented guy like Homer.

Unassisted
06-19-2006, 02:05 PM
Too much. Too soon.

Maybe the Reds should abandon the practice of bringing their number 1 signee to Cincinnati for a meet-and-greet with the locals? Seems to me like it just intensifies the external pressure to bring these guys through the system when Joe Fan and Harry Sportswriter engage in public begging to bring them to the big club before they're ready.

Make those top picks claw their way up without the tugging from locals.

M2
06-19-2006, 02:08 PM
Here's the thing with rushing Bailey. If he shows up early and takes a few years to find himself in the majors, then you've whizzed away his inexpensive years on spotty production.

I also worry aggressive promotion will cause the kid to try to be a hero. IMO, the absolute most encouraging thing about Bailey to date has been that he's been healthy. As long as his arm's in good shape, he's got the chance to progress.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:12 PM
Here's the thing with rushing Bailey. If he shows up early and takes a few years to find himself in the majors, then you've whizzed away his inexpensive years on spotty production.which is pretty much the rule around baseball, pitchers get rushed.

Starting pitching is not THE problem with this team so Bailey is not a solution to what ails.

The strange thing is a number of guys at AA would not be rushed if they moved them to AAA yet they remain with the Lookouts even though they have dominated. Maybe the Reds are waiting til the end of the first half to move a couple of these guys to AAA.

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 02:25 PM
I have to ask the posters against the promotion the following:

What exactly, is your defenition of dominance? Homer is not a finished product, but these numbers look very impressive to me:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=456701

He's still well under a hit per inning, his K's are still above 1 an inning, his WHIP is better, his ERA has improved, and opposing batters are only hitting .189 against.

What more are you asking for? It seems his first half was pretty dang dominant to me.

Homer Bailey is not Ty Howington or Chris Gruler. He's not Richie Gardner, etc. You cannot lump him in with this group until he actually flounders, yet it seems to me, everyone believes he is destined for some kind of dooms day simply because he's a Red. I think the Reds have handled him with kids gloves, I dont think this promotion is unwarranted. Homer Bailey must be weighed on his own merits. And when reviewing those merits, I like what I see, and I'm confident in the promotion.

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 02:29 PM
I just checked, he is the youngest player in the Southern League by about 5 months. I am with cincyinco on this one though, it seems everyone is so worried about what happened to Reds pitchers in the past.

pedro
06-19-2006, 02:35 PM
Bailey has still been inconsistent. That's the kind of thing that guys should work out before advancing to a league where they will be the youngest guy.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:40 PM
It seems his first half was pretty dang dominant to me.
other than HR rate (it isn't bad just something to note) there is nothing not to like.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 02:41 PM
I have to ask the posters against the promotion the following:

What exactly, is your defenition of dominance? Homer is not a finished product, but these numbers look very impressive to me:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=456701

He's still well under a hit per inning, his K's are still above 1 an inning, his WHIP is better, his ERA has improved, and opposing batters are only hitting .189 against.

What more are you asking for? It seems his first half was pretty dang dominant to me.

Homer Bailey is not Ty Howington or Chris Gruler. He's not Richie Gardner, etc. You cannot lump him in with this group until he actually flounders, yet it seems to me, everyone believes he is destined for some kind of dooms day simply because he's a Red. I think the Reds have handled him with kids gloves, I dont think this promotion is unwarranted. Homer Bailey must be weighed on his own merits. And when reviewing those merits, I like what I see, and I'm confident in the promotion.
The key with those names is injuries. They weren't rushed and then flamed out. They got injured.

edabbs44
06-19-2006, 02:41 PM
6 HRs in 70 innings is not bad at all.

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 02:42 PM
other than HR rate (it isn't bad just something to note) there is nothing not to like.

Exactly.. so whats with all the fuss over nothing? I understand not rushing a player, I understand the cautious and guarded optimism regarding Bailey - but I don't think a promotion to AA is over the top. He's done well, IMO, and earned his promotion.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:48 PM
Exactly.. so whats with all the fuss over nothing? I think more people are worried because of the way he produced the numbers. He seems to have been either "dominating" or "less than mediocre" with nothing in between.

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 02:48 PM
The key with those names is injuries. They weren't rushed and then flamed out. They got injured.

Edabbs, I'm aware of that. However he is consistently lumped together with these guys when talking about Reds pitching prospects.

I suppose thats kind of inevitable, giving the total ineptitude of this organization to produce even one, single, bonafide, homegrown pitcher in the last decade plus...

But it still seems to me, and maybe its just me, that he gets weighed against the other notable failures of the Reds, no matter what the reason for their failure.. simply because.. Its like its ingrained into our heads that Homer is going to fail becuase he's a Red. Perhaps some fans don't want to suffer the heartache of being emotionally invested in a prep pitcher if/when he fails. I understand that. I'm cautiously optimistic myself. But I refuse to weigh Bailey against previous failures, until he fails himself.

I'll be very dissapointed if he does flop, but until then, I'm just enjoyin the ride.. We all should. :beerme:

flyer85
06-19-2006, 02:48 PM
6 HRs in 70 innings is not bad at all.not bad but not great in what is generally known as a pitchers league.

traderumor
06-19-2006, 02:49 PM
Exactly.. so whats with all the fuss over nothing? I understand not rushing a player, I understand the cautious and guarded optimism regarding Bailey - but I don't think a promotion to AA is over the top. He's done well, IMO, and earned his promotion.http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1029619&postcount=5

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 02:52 PM
I think more people are worried because of the way he produced the numbers. He seems to have been either "dominating" or "less than mediocre" with nothing in between.

Adam Dunn-esque eh? :mooner: heh.. I understand consistency hasn't been Bailey's forte, but he's 20. He can learn to be consistent in AA too. I think he's taken a huge step forward this year in harnessing his stuff, and overall, the numbers show it... even if it comes and goes at this point.

Oh, and he improved this year at Sarasota too.. when everyone said before the year he should have remained in Dayton, because he wasn't dominating. Well whats everyone going to think if he continues his progress in AA?

They say the transition to AA is the toughest jump to make... If Homer puts up similar numbers to his first half in High A - I think we'll have a LOT to be excited about.

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 02:54 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1029619&postcount=5

And?

The first half of the season is over.. and he's been pretty dominant overall. Do you not agree?

M2
06-19-2006, 03:11 PM
I have to ask the posters against the promotion the following:

What exactly, is your defenition of dominance? Homer is not a finished product, but these numbers look very impressive to me:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/stats/player.php?id=456701

He's still well under a hit per inning, his K's are still above 1 an inning, his WHIP is better, his ERA has improved, and opposing batters are only hitting .189 against.

What more are you asking for? It seems his first half was pretty dang dominant to me.

Homer Bailey is not Ty Howington or Chris Gruler. He's not Richie Gardner, etc. You cannot lump him in with this group until he actually flounders, yet it seems to me, everyone believes he is destined for some kind of dooms day simply because he's a Red. I think the Reds have handled him with kids gloves, I dont think this promotion is unwarranted. Homer Bailey must be weighed on his own merits. And when reviewing those merits, I like what I see, and I'm confident in the promotion.

What's dominance? How about an ERA a point under where Homer's is now?

How about pitching being able to stick around for more than 15-18 outs in a game? How about tooling on the opponent for a dozen or so starts in a row?

Homer's got solid numbers, but we all know he's been on a yo-yo this season in what should be a league that he can own every time he takes the mound. Looks to me like he was exactly where he should be and that he still had plenty to learn in the FSL.

traderumor
06-19-2006, 03:13 PM
And?

The first half of the season is over.. and he's been pretty dominant overall. Do you not agree?No, I've made several posts noting his inconsistency. He has been dominating at times, other times not so hot. You want a "future ace" to be dominant all the time, esp. in A ball. He has not been that. He could have been in the second half, but now the can of worms is opened. There is very little to gain from bumping him up a level at this point and quite a bit to lose, which was said very well by the post I linked you to.

Doc. Scott
06-19-2006, 03:16 PM
Krivsky's plan all along, apparently.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060619/SPORTS/606190545/1006

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 03:52 PM
No, I've made several posts noting his inconsistency. He has been dominating at times, other times not so hot. You want a "future ace" to be dominant all the time, esp. in A ball. He has not been that. He could have been in the second half, but now the can of worms is opened. There is very little to gain from bumping him up a level at this point and quite a bit to lose, which was said very well by the post I linked you to.

I'm not trying to attack or pick on you traderumor(so please don't take this personally), but I have read a couple of your posts, and these are the type of posts I'm talking about.. seemingly put a black cloud over Bailey's head just because.

I understand the odds are against him, especially given this organization. I understand he's been inconsistent.

But it seems like everyone wants Bailey to put up Beckett like minor league numbers. Well, not every player developes as fast, or in the same way as each other. Otherwise, this game of scouting would be easy.

The post you pointed out talked about dominating for a half season. I contend Homer has, overall, been dominating... for half a season. Seems to meet that criteria. I think the numbers support my claim. Maybe his ERA could be 1 tick lower... but to me thats nitpicking. The periphrial stats are solid. The WHIP has improved dramatically, at a higher level, as has his command. Bailey has risen to the challenge of improving his game at a higher level, when many were calling for him to start the year in Dayton.. again.

Give credit where credit is due... just sayin :p:

membengal
06-19-2006, 03:53 PM
July 4 through 8 the Lookouts are over my way in West TN at Jackson to play the Cubs' AA affiliate. As luck would have it, that's a five-game series, and, assuming a five man rotation for Chattanooga, seems pretty likely that Bailey will pitch one of those games.

Guess I will be making a little road trip to get a first hand look at the AA experiement then...

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 03:54 PM
July 4 through 8 the Lookouts are over my way in West TN at Jackson to play the Cubs' AA affiliate. As luck would have it, that's a five-game series, and, assuming a five man rotation for Chattanooga, seems pretty likely that Bailey will pitch one of those games.

Guess I will be making a little road trip to get a first hand look at the AA experiement then...

Pretty sweet, would love to hear an assessment "Down on the farm" :thumbup:

Chip R
06-19-2006, 04:00 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see Homer up here next year sometime. Maybe not to begin the season but somewhere down the line.

M2
06-19-2006, 04:07 PM
But it seems like everyone wants Bailey to put up Beckett like minor league numbers. Well, not every player developes as fast, or in the same way as each other.

I agree, but in that case, don't promote him.

princeton
06-19-2006, 04:12 PM
I wouldn't be surprised to see Homer up here next year sometime. Maybe not to begin the season but somewhere down the line.

I'd have him in the Chatt bullpen right now, with the Cincy 'pen as a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

I'm a supreme coddler, but the year chooses you. plus I'd like to see the Reds using the bullpen to break in (not break) youngsters.

smith288
06-19-2006, 04:16 PM
other than HR rate (it isn't bad just something to note) there is nothing not to like.
Besides his name... And Homer gives up himself to Pujols. I can hear it already.

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 04:26 PM
I'd have him in the Chatt bullpen right now, with the Cincy 'pen as a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

I'm a supreme coddler, but the year chooses you. plus I'd like to see the Reds using the bullpen to break in (not break) youngsters.

You would take your #1 starting pitcher in the minors and put him in the AA bullpen for half a year incase your big league team decides it needs another armout of the pen?!

KronoRed
06-19-2006, 04:32 PM
I don't like it. Let the guy have some sustained success. He got hit pretty hard in several outings. This formula has failed in the past and I see no reason not to let him grow a little against hitters he overmatches.
I agree, I hate the "He's done well in 2 games LETS GET HIM promote" formula.

How do they expect him to dominate the majors in the future if he's never allowed to dominate anywhere else?

Hope he does well, but I'm fully expecting a beating in AA

Chip R
06-19-2006, 04:32 PM
I'd have him in the Chatt bullpen right now, with the Cincy 'pen as a remote possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

I'm a supreme coddler, but the year chooses you. plus I'd like to see the Reds using the bullpen to break in (not break) youngsters.

I have a better chance of sprouting wings and flying to NYC to make the start for the Reds tonight than Homer does of going to the bullpen in Chatty. There is no way they would put their supposedly best pitcher in their organization in the AA bullpen. And I don't think they should either. Now putting him in the bullpen in the Show is something I have mulled over earlier this year. I do agree that the Reds should use the bullpen to break in guys like Homer. But it probably won't happen since there is such huge expectations for any young starter who has shown a modicum of success in the minor leagues.

KronoRed
06-19-2006, 04:33 PM
The year hasn't chosen us though, the White Sox series is exactly what we could expect in the playoffs, don't rush Bailey so we can win the WC then get rolled over.

IMO :D

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 04:33 PM
Just thought I would post this to show Baileys game by game lines.


Date Inn Hits Runs E.R. HR HBP BB SO BF IBB ERA WHIP GO FO Season dERA
4/6/06 Home 4.2 5 5 2 1 0 0 5 21 0 3.86 1.07 4 5 3.58
4/11/06 Home 5.2 7 3 3 0 1 0 5 24 0 4.35 1.06 6 5 2.57
4/17/06 Away 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 5 18 0 2.93 0.98 4 6 2.72
4/22/06 Away 5 5 4 4 1 0 3 5 22 0 3.98 1.13 3 6 3.36
4/27/06 Away 6 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 19 0 3.08 0.95 5 4 2.88
5/3/06 Home 5.1 6 5 5 1 0 2 4 24 1 3.98 1.04 3 9 3.16
5/8/06 Away 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 20 0 3.35 0.9 3 4 2.68
5/13/06 Home 2.2 4 6 1 1 2 3 3 18 0 3.35 1.02 1 4 3.22
5/19/06 Away 5 6 2 1 0 0 3 5 25 0 3.18 1.1 7 3 3.21
5/24/06 Home 6.1 4 4 4 2 0 1 9 25 0 3.48 1.06 5 5 3.37
5/30/06 Away 5 7 5 5 0 0 4 3 25 0 3.97 1.16 8 4 3.47
6/4/06 Home 7 1 0 0 0 2 1 7 25 0 3.53 1.07 7 7 3.47
6/9/06 Home 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 8 24 0 3.31 1.01 8 5 3.14

princeton
06-19-2006, 04:34 PM
the 'pen is a nice way to break a pitcher into the majors. It probably works in the minors, too, but hasn't been tried so far as I can see. I would implement this across the farm system.

and if Bailey dominates, displays resiliency, and the big club surprises, then he could certainly be up in select situations in which he has a high chance of success. Breathing playoff atmosphere is good for his development, and the Reds don't offer that atmosphere very often.

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 04:36 PM
I agree, I hate the "He's done well in 2 games LETS GET HIM promote" formula.

How do they expect him to dominate the majors in the future if he's never allowed to dominate anywhere else?

Hope he does well, but I'm fully expecting a beating in AA

What makes you think he is going to get killed in AA? What about his numbers suggest that?

Aronchis
06-19-2006, 04:42 PM
What makes you think he is going to get killed in AA? What about his numbers suggest that?

Because he hasn't been consistant enough which the numbers show. When he has been good, he has been good, no doubt. But his lack of consistant command is not made for AA.

I think if they left Homer in high A through at least July, then maybe take Princeton's suggestion and put him in the AA bullpen in Augest, it wouldn't be a bad deal. But to move him in June to AA is bound for trouble unless the Reds perfectly timed a light switch that went off in his head for consistancy.

I would have just liked to see solid progression in high A and dominating more and more consistantly to round out the summer. That would have been fine and good progress. He is only 20. What is the rush?

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 04:44 PM
Well only twice over his last 7 starts has he allowed more than 1 earned run. That seems pretty consistant to me.

gonelong
06-19-2006, 04:46 PM
Playing MLB is an ongoing adjustment. The batter adjusts, the pitcher adjusts. The batter adjusts again, the pitchers adjusts again.

Homer is going to miss seeing teams for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th time by being promoted in the middle of the season. How do you get a guy out that has seen your stuff in 10 ABs, 20 ABs, or 30 ABs? That is something that should be part of the maturation process in building a starting pitcher.

When batters figured out they could lay off Wagner's out pitch because he didn't throw it for a strike, he was pretty much done. He never had to learn to adjust.

At the MLB level these guys have video of every AB against the pitcher, or that pitcher against the league or whatever. They have guys that look for patterns, etc. If you have not learned to deal with these situations, you are likely to fail against those that have.

I think Homer is being rushed here. I much rather see him in Sarasota and finish the season there. Home does have the weapons to succeed at AA, and maybe they are wanting him to buddy up to one of the "veterans" they have stashed on the AA pitcher staff. Some guys do swim if tossed into the deep end.

GL

M2
06-19-2006, 04:51 PM
Well only twice over his last 7 starts has he allowed more than 1 earned run. That seems pretty consistant to me.

Except there's some obvious fudge in there. He got hit around pretty well in two of those one-run starts, giving up five and one unearned runs in the process.

Overall, of his 13 starts, I'd say five were up to standards I hold for a stud pitching prospect and eight were of the forgettable variety. So I guess he's been consistent after all. I just don't think that kind of consistency merits an aggressive promotion.

Falls City Beer
06-19-2006, 04:56 PM
I think other organizations promote guys like Homer aggressively. There is faulty logic in looking at the aggressive promotions of Reds' minor leaguers over the years, seeing them fail, and reaching the conclusion that they failed because of reckless overpromotion. I think they failed because they sucked, period. There wasn't the talent there to overpromote and fail. If you're good, you survive; if you stink, in general, you die--or hang around until you come back to life (for some other team).

Sure, there is danger in dumping a 19 year old into AAA or the majors, but that seems to be the extreme that no one's willing to drive down the slippery slope.

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 04:57 PM
M2, he has 6 starts where he has allowed 2 runs or less...5 of those were starts of 1 or 0 runs. Are you saying you expect a "stud pitching prospect" to allow just 0 or 1 run every time they pitch? That doesnt happen. I think you have too high of standards for what a pitching prospect actually is.

cincyinco
06-19-2006, 05:01 PM
Some guys do swim if tossed into the deep end.

GL

I think this is the most important thing you said in your post. Homer has risen to the challenge of High A - beyond most people's expecations around here. Remember, most were clamoring for him to start the year in Dayton because he didn't "dominate"

Bailey has shown clear improvement IMO. Sometimes its good to challenge players.

Everyone is so timid around these parts, and I suppose with good reason - but yikes. Injury/rushed/etc is so ingrained in everyone's mind when talking about Reds' pitching spects because of previous administrations' folleys... that doesn't mean its automatically going to happen here.

As I said, give Bailey a chance to fail in some serious capacity before predicting doom and gloom. Not just because he's being promoted... seems silly to me.

Caveat Emperor
06-19-2006, 05:29 PM
After considering this a little bit, I honestly have no problem with the Reds moving Bailey up to AA.

With the emergence of Zach Webb and Johnny Cueto, along with the continued development of Travis Wood, at Dayton -- Bailey's gone from being the "last hope" of the Reds farm system to one of many very promising (very young) pitching prospects. If something happens to Bailey, it'd be bad, but it doesn't seem nearly as disasterous as it did 6 months ago.

As long as Bailey shows good mechanics and reports nothing wrong with himself between starts, then I have no problem with moving him up to see better competition. He's not "dominating" Single A ball, but he's certainly not performing poorly -- we're all just holding him to a higher standard because he's had such gigantic expectations pinned to his back. Maybe he's just the kind of kid that needs to be moving forward or else he loses focus; giving him a new challenge could push him to refocus and refine his craft as opposed to just winging what he knows will mow down undisciplined Advanced A hitters.

It's going to be a tough time -- Chattanooga seems to be where the majority of Reds pitchers go to die (see: Gardner, Richie and Pauley, Thomas), but if Bailey can make it through this then he should have plenty of time to find himself and be ready for a big league debut at the midway point of the 2008 season.

IslandRed
06-19-2006, 05:33 PM
For what it's worth, my preference would have been for Bailey to spend the whole year in the FSL. But with any promotion, the questions are, what does he need to work on? Will the promotion help or hinder that?

There's this tidbit from a recent BP scouting notebook:


As for Bailey's occasional struggles? "He's young and he's used to dominating and his approach ends up hurting himself," he said. "Instead of being convinced he can get anybody out any time, he needs to start getting ahead of the count more often."

If he's playing around too much, does that call for stepping up in class so he'll get serious, or staying put and being tutored in the joys of squashing hitters like little bugs?

flyer85
06-19-2006, 05:57 PM
The main thing the promotion that worries me is most guys need their third pitch to be successful in the majors and at AA will he give up on continuing to work on his changeup in favor of showing more success at getting people out. There is still the developmental process that has to be factored into the process and while Bailey may be more effective in AA as a two pitch pitcher he still needs to work on his changeup. If he doesn't he may miximize his AA success at the expense of future success at the major league level.

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 06:37 PM
The main thing the promotion that worries me is most guys need their third pitch to be successful in the majors and at AA will he give up on continuing to work on his changeup in favor of showing more success at getting people out. There is still the developmental process that has to be factored into the process and while Bailey may be more effective in AA as a two pitch pitcher he still needs to work on his changeup. If he doesn't he may miximize his AA success at the expense of future success at the major league level.
Do you think that Bailey is going to stop trying to throw a change up, which by some accounts, is making some serious steps forward this year, simply because he is in AA now instead of in Sarasota? I really doubt he will just not throw it, he knows he needs it.

flyer85
06-19-2006, 07:16 PM
Do you think that Bailey is going to stop trying to throw a change up, which by some accounts, is making some serious steps forward this year, simply because he is in AA now instead of in Sarasota? I really doubt he will just not throw it, he knows he needs it.who knows what might happens if he starts to struggle

Rojo
06-19-2006, 07:21 PM
There is faulty logic in looking at the aggressive promotions of Reds' minor leaguers over the years, seeing them fail, and reaching the conclusion that they failed because of reckless overpromotion. I think they failed because they sucked, period. There wasn't the talent there to overpromote and fail. If you're good, you survive; if you stink, in general, you die--or hang around until you come back to life (for some other team).

Sure, there is danger in dumping a 19 year old into AAA or the majors, but that seems to be the extreme that no one's willing to drive down the slippery slope.

Coddling is probably more important for the stuff-challenged or when your "stretching" a young guy.

M2
06-19-2006, 07:48 PM
M2, he has 6 starts where he has allowed 2 runs or less...5 of those were starts of 1 or 0 runs. Are you saying you expect a "stud pitching prospect" to allow just 0 or 1 run every time they pitch? That doesnt happen. I think you have too high of standards for what a pitching prospect actually is.

You grade too easy.

4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 5 R, 3 ER is not a good start

2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 HB, 3 BB, 6 R, 1 ER is not a good start

5 IP, 6, H, 3 BB, 2 R, 1 ER is not a good start

Now you only counted that last one as a quality effort, but it defines the kind of slippery slope you're treading on with the "he only allowed two or fewer runs" argument. Yet even with your chosen method of accounting you've still only got six in the plus column and seven in the blah column. So your answer is yes, I expect a "stud" pitching prospect to pump out a good or better start more than half the time and no I don't think that's all that onerous a standard. Other teams have pitching prospects who do it all the time.

SteelSD
06-19-2006, 08:13 PM
You grade too easy.

4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 5 R, 3 ER is not a good start

2.2 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 HB, 3 BB, 6 R, 1 ER is not a good start

5 IP, 6, H, 3 BB, 2 R, 1 ER is not a good start

Now you only counted that last one as a quality effort, but it defines the kind of slippery slope you're treading on with the "he only allowed two or fewer runs" argument. Yet even with your chosen method of accounting you've still only got six in the plus column and seven in the blah column. So your answer is yes, I expect a "stud" pitching prospect to pump out a good or better start more than half the time and no I don't think that's all that onerous a standard. Other teams have pitching prospects who do it all the time.

And generally you can find nearly one per team playing in the same A-Ball league. Heck, just a list of guys who play (or played) in the FSL this season:

Kevin Slowey
Yovanni Gallardo
Cole Hamels
Jose Garcia
Jair Jurrjens
Philip Hughes
Scott Elbert

And at some point, I'd really appreciate seeing a debate about Homer Bailey that doesn't include the concept that if we take away the mediocre-to-bad stuff, then he's sensational. After all, inconsistency is a result of less than optimal command.

paulrichjr
06-19-2006, 10:31 PM
July 4 through 8 the Lookouts are over my way in West TN at Jackson to play the Cubs' AA affiliate. As luck would have it, that's a five-game series, and, assuming a five man rotation for Chattanooga, seems pretty likely that Bailey will pitch one of those games.

Guess I will be making a little road trip to get a first hand look at the AA experiement then...


I am going to try to go then also... I live an hour from Jackson...

dougdirt
06-19-2006, 11:20 PM
And at some point, I'd really appreciate seeing a debate about Homer Bailey that doesn't include the concept that if we take away the mediocre-to-bad stuff, then he's sensational. After all, inconsistency is a result of less than optimal command.

No matter where he pitches, its not going to matter if he is consistant or not. That is going to come or not come becuase of Homer, not becuase he is pitching on a mound in Chattanooga or in Sarasota or in Billings for that matter.

NC Reds
06-20-2006, 12:15 AM
I consider Homer an advanced pupil. I have no problem with promoting him and challenging him at this point. I have never believed in treating everyone the same way, so I reject the idea that any pitcher has to "dominate" a level for a season before he gets promoted.

traderumor
06-20-2006, 12:40 AM
I consider Homer an advanced pupil. I have no problem with promoting him and challenging him at this point. I have never believed in treating everyone the same way, so I reject the idea that any pitcher has to "dominate" a level for a season before he gets promoted.
If he were an advanced pupil, he would have been dominating at Dayton last year and consistently at Sarasota this year and you wouldn't have to rationalize away a reasonable rule of thumb because he'd already be doing it.

reds44
06-20-2006, 12:41 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060619&content_id=1513686&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


Onward and upward: Reds top pitching prospect Homer Bailey has been promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. The 20-year-old right-hander, who was 3-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 13 starts for Class A Sarasota this season, will make his debut for the Lookouts on Thursday.

SteelSD
06-20-2006, 01:09 AM
No matter where he pitches, its not going to matter if he is consistant or not. That is going to come or not come becuase of Homer, not becuase he is pitching on a mound in Chattanooga or in Sarasota or in Billings for that matter.

Huh? Whether or not Homer Bailey is consistent doesn't matter? I must be reading that wrong, doug, because consistency matters on any rung of the ladder.

Of course it's going to be Bailey who controls whether or not he gains consistency. No one's argued that just as no one should argue the fact that Homer Bailey needs to become more consistent. That's the problem with a logic line that includes the concept that Homer Bailey is spectacular IF we throw out the mediocre-to-bad outings. If that were the case, then we could say that Miguel Perez is an excellent batsman. David Weathers becomes a heck of a closer, Brandon Larson is playing third base for a MLB contender, and Brett Tomko and Jack Armstrong have worked out really well for the Reds.

But we can't kick those outings to the curb because they're part of Homer Bailey's performance and they affect his projectibility. He's volatile. He was volatile last year. He's young. But he's not the only young guy who's put up a low WHIP and high K rates in A-Ball this season- much less the only young guy who's done that in his own league. His performance, while decent in Sarasota, is not uncommon. And that's what we're looking for when attempting to project a young pitcher (especially a young PITCHER)- uncommon consistent performance.

You mentioned that M2 has standards set too high. And I'll fully admit I fit that profile as well. Yet, I've never considered myself someone who sets standards too high as I don't ask for much before annointing a pitcher as someone I'd like to have.

That being said, if I'm going to label a guy as a possible future "ace", he's got to fit a certain "trifecta" performance profile- particularly at the lower end of the minor league spectrum. He's got to be dominant- and consistently. He's got to produce low HR rates, decent BB rates, and high K rates. Last year Homer Bailey produced a low HR rate (0.43 HR/9 IP), a bad BB rate (5.38 BB/9 IP), and a high K rate (10.85 K/9 IP). That's 2/3 of the way good, but I also know that in A-Ball that's not at all uncommon. It's just not. It never is. I know this because I've studied prospects and trends. Bailey wasn't the best pitcher in the Midwest League last year. He wasn't the best pitcher in the Florida State League this year. And I'd hazard a guess that he's not going to be the best pitcher in the Southern League either. But he's a Red so we hope and wish and try to find what we can to convince us that he's better than all those other guys who perform better than he. Way it goes.

Homer Bailey throws hard, but not exceptionally hard. Homer Bailey is a big kid. Ok. Homer Bailey has a curve that projects to be a "plus-plus" pitch but isn't yet. Homer Bailey doesn't have the fastball to rely on two pitches but he hasn't developed a "plus" third pitch. He's working on the change and that's good but that change is only going to be effective as a "plus" pitch if he's get's the curveball to where it needs to be. He does that and maybe we can throw some of his mediocre-to-bad starts out. But then, if he does that we won't see such a high percentage of mediocre-to-bad starts to begin with.

This season, Bailey has produced a high HR rate (0.76 HR/9 IP) for a pitcher's league, a good BB rate (2.80 BB/9 IP), and a high K rate (10.06 K/9 IP). But he's also been a BABIP darling this season and it appears that he's traded some BB for HR. And we know that he's been inconsistent. That's a problem because a player cannot be judged only by his best. It's our duty to include his medicore and worst because inconsistency is a player attribute.

Oh, he's young of course. But that doesn't make me feel any better that Jered Weaver just got his first cup of coffee and handed MLB hitters their lunches. Nor does it make me feel any better that a bunch of young guys in his own league are matching or outperforming Bailey to this point. Nor does it make me feel any better than Bailey is following Philip Hughes to AA while Hughes has been doing to AA hitters basically what Bailey has been doing to high A-Ball hitters while pitching in a pitcher's league.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, doug, but it appears that your position tends to be that we can expect Bailey's future ceiling to be near (or at) a ceiling he's only shown intermittently. That's fine if we're only expecting an exceptionally high % of Bailey's future starts to be at peak level. And if we're looking for an A-Ball pitcher to be "ace" level in the future, then his ceiling "dominant" start % performance needs to be way better than a coin-flip proposition at that level. That's what I read M2 to be saying and that's a concept I'm in 100% agreement with. And not because I dislike Homer Bailey. Quite the contrary. I love underdog stories and Bailey, if nothing else, is that considering the circumstances. But to expect that? I'd need to be the kind of crazy that plays blackjack and hits on an 18 while the dealer has a six showing. And I ain't that kind of crazy.

And yes, Bailey's dominant starts are tantilizing because they allow us a glimpse into the "what might be". However, I don't care about what "might be". I care about what's most probable. And "might be" works three ways. There's a ceiling, a floor, and something in between. In this case, hoping for the best is fine as long as we're not discounting that the worst is very possible and that the middle is probable should the player in question stay healty enough for the resolution.

SteelSD
06-20-2006, 01:13 AM
If he were an advanced pupil, he would have been dominating at Dayton last year and consistently at Sarasota this year and you wouldn't have to rationalize away a reasonable rule of thumb because he'd already be doing it.

Yep. I don't think there's a more reasonable take out there, tr. Very well said, sir.

Caveat Emperor
06-20-2006, 01:15 AM
If he were an advanced pupil, he would have been dominating at Dayton last year and consistently at Sarasota this year and you wouldn't have to rationalize away a reasonable rule of thumb because he'd already be doing it.

Different people respond differently to situations. Perhaps the Reds scouting and player development people feel that Homer Bailey needs to be challenged in order to keep his focus and refine his game for the next level.

There's no exact science to any of this anyway -- it's a lot of conjecture and guesswork as to what approach will work best for each player. You find guys who take the slow, coddled path and end up with shoulders that look like hamburger, and you find other guys who race through the minors (see: Willis, Dontrelle) and end up as frontline starters.

The jump from A to AA is a rude awakening for most prospects, no matter how good they looked in the FSL or other advanced leagues. That'd be true even if Bailey was sporting a sub-2.00 ERA. I guess this way we at least find out what we're dealing with now as opposed to pinnning our hopes onto a time bomb that's just destined to explode.

Betterread
06-20-2006, 01:27 AM
Congratulations on your promotion to AA, Homer Bailey.
Now, the pressure's on. Let's see what you can handle it. I think you can if you maintain your health.

Scrap Irony
06-20-2006, 01:34 AM
I don't mind the move up, but, if I were in charge, Bailey would have been kept in A ball until he showed consistency. That said, I think the Cincinnati viewpoint is that Bailey, at this point in his development, loses track occasionally because he's got such good stuff. He believes in his stuff so much, according to the article quoted, sometimes he just forgets to pitch.

At this point, Bailey is more thrower than pitcher.

However, with the move to AA, I think the Red braintrust is hoping he bears down a bit more and focuses on each hitter, rather than allowing occasional big innings or poor starts.

That, IMO, is why he's been moved up.

Steel, M2, et al, propose that this promotion could cause Bailey to do one of two things:

1. Baliey struggles and is considered less of an uber-prospect, thereby hindering his trading chip potential.

2. Bailey bears down and has the poential to hurt that fragile 20 year old wing of his because he hasn't yet learned how to pitch.

Others, like the Reds, assume Bailey knows what to pitch and how to get it done, but loses focus at times because it's so easy in the lower league.

Homer, according to the Reds, is like that kid in school who understood everything so well that he didn't try to stretch his mind at all, preferring C's and no work to A's and a bit of work. Occasionally, because of his talent, he'll turn in a gem. Other times, he struggled with consistency.

So...

Is Bailey that talented?

Or is he the fifth or sixth best prospect in High A?

We shall see...

traderumor
06-20-2006, 11:11 AM
I don't mind the move up, but, if I were in charge, Bailey would have been kept in A ball until he showed consistency. That said, I think the Cincinnati viewpoint is that Bailey, at this point in his development, loses track occasionally because he's got such good stuff. He believes in his stuff so much, according to the article quoted, sometimes he just forgets to pitch.

At this point, Bailey is more thrower than pitcher.

However, with the move to AA, I think the Red braintrust is hoping he bears down a bit more and focuses on each hitter, rather than allowing occasional big innings or poor starts.

That, IMO, is why he's been moved up.

Steel, M2, et al, propose that this promotion could cause Bailey to do one of two things:

1. Baliey struggles and is considered less of an uber-prospect, thereby hindering his trading chip potential.

2. Bailey bears down and has the poential to hurt that fragile 20 year old wing of his because he hasn't yet learned how to pitch.

Others, like the Reds, assume Bailey knows what to pitch and how to get it done, but loses focus at times because it's so easy in the lower league.

Homer, according to the Reds, is like that kid in school who understood everything so well that he didn't try to stretch his mind at all, preferring C's and no work to A's and a bit of work. Occasionally, because of his talent, he'll turn in a gem. Other times, he struggled with consistency.

So...

Is Bailey that talented?

Or is he the fifth or sixth best prospect in High A?

We shall see...
So, Homer is being promoted to AA because he suffers from ADD and A ball is just boring him? I really hope that is not the Reds' mindset, because that is simply proving the "let him dominate" line of thinking. One who just squashes the competition is focused and determined. One who is inconsistent has enough talent but does not have the ability to focus at all times. The sad part is, that is probably true of Homer, who as much as I hate comparisons with a name, reminds me so much of AJ Burnett. And that is why the Reds are taking information that is vital to make a decision about promoting someone and making a total illogical conclusion from it. "Ok, he's having trouble focusing? Well, let's promote him!"

dougdirt
06-20-2006, 01:51 PM
Huh? Whether or not Homer Bailey is consistent doesn't matter? I must be reading that wrong, doug, because consistency matters on any rung of the ladder.
You did indeed read it wrong Steel. Maybe I worded it bad. What I was trying to say was it doesnt matter where he is pitching as far as his consistancy goes. When he is locating his stuff, he has been consistant. When he has had problems getting his curve and change in the zone, he has been inconsistant. Pitching in Sarasota or Chattanooga is not going to make a difference on whether that night he has his consistancy. That one is all up to Homer and figuring out why he is consistant one night and not the other. I think I explained that a little better this time. Oh, and I completely agree that consistancy matters.




Now, correct me if I'm wrong, doug, but it appears that your position tends to be that we can expect Bailey's future ceiling to be near (or at) a ceiling he's only shown intermittently. That's fine if we're only expecting an exceptionally high % of Bailey's future starts to be at peak level. And if we're looking for an A-Ball pitcher to be "ace" level in the future, then his ceiling "dominant" start % performance needs to be way better than a coin-flip proposition at that level. That's what I read M2 to be saying and that's a concept I'm in 100% agreement with. And not because I dislike Homer Bailey. Quite the contrary. I love underdog stories and Bailey, if nothing else, is that considering the circumstances. But to expect that? I'd need to be the kind of crazy that plays blackjack and hits on an 18 while the dealer has a six showing. And I ain't that kind of crazy.
My expectation of Bailey, if he stays healthy of course(big if with all pitchers of course, regardless of what team), is to see Bailey be at the least a #2, with a good chance at a #1. I dont really buy into the blackjack thing, becuase well anyone who hits on 18 with a 6 showing is well, not very smart at all. With a pitcher, especially a young one, I expect a learning curve. I am perfectly fine with Baileys starts outside of 4 of them. The game he gave up 5 unearned runs, I dont put that on him, just like I cant put the game in Arizona on Elizardo Ramirez, becuase the defense failed both of them bigtime. 8 of his starts, would be fine by me. 8 of 12 is not bad. Not the best thing ever, but it surely isnt bad.


And yes, Bailey's dominant starts are tantilizing because they allow us a glimpse into the "what might be". However, I don't care about what "might be". I care about what's most probable. And "might be" works three ways. There's a ceiling, a floor, and something in between. In this case, hoping for the best is fine as long as we're not discounting that the worst is very possible and that the middle is probable should the player in question stay healty enough for the resolution.
While I will agree with some of what you said there, I think that the most probable thing is that Bailey continues to grow as a pitcher and gets better with age. That is what happens with most pitchers. This is quite a big jump for him, and I think it is a little to early, but I think we all expected him to see Chattanooga sometime this year, whether we agreed with it or not. Maybe I have more faith than you do, which is fine. I just see Bailey, as time goes on and works more that he will be able to maintain a more consistant level of success.

Scrap Irony
06-20-2006, 01:51 PM
Focus or get out of the way?

If he struggles, he moves back down to High A.

I think that will be the modus operandi

SteelSD
06-20-2006, 06:28 PM
You did indeed read it wrong Steel. Maybe I worded it bad. What I was trying to say was it doesnt matter where he is pitching as far as his consistancy goes. When he is locating his stuff, he has been consistant. When he has had problems getting his curve and change in the zone, he has been inconsistant. Pitching in Sarasota or Chattanooga is not going to make a difference on whether that night he has his consistancy. That one is all up to Homer and figuring out why he is consistant one night and not the other. I think I explained that a little better this time. Oh, and I completely agree that consistancy matters.

Doug, I'm talking about start-to-start consistency. You're talking about "when he's on". Well, it's great that he's consistent during a specific ball game when he's "on", but he's not on often enough to be truly consistent. And in that context, I think we'd both agree that level of competition matters. If he's not consistent in high A-Ball, I don't see any reason to think he'll be any more consistent in AA.


My expectation of Bailey, if he stays healthy of course(big if with all pitchers of course, regardless of what team), is to see Bailey be at the least a #2, with a good chance at a #1. I dont really buy into the blackjack thing, becuase well anyone who hits on 18 with a 6 showing is well, not very smart at all. With a pitcher, especially a young one, I expect a learning curve. I am perfectly fine with Baileys starts outside of 4 of them. The game he gave up 5 unearned runs, I dont put that on him, just like I cant put the game in Arizona on Elizardo Ramirez, becuase the defense failed both of them bigtime. 8 of his starts, would be fine by me. 8 of 12 is not bad. Not the best thing ever, but it surely isnt bad.

Again, we can't cull the mediocre from the mix. And you're including starts that were mediocre at best to get to your "8 of 12" percentage.

And you should buy the blackjack analogy because you're betting against the odds here. If Homer Bailey manages to turn into a true long-term ace-level Starting Pitcher, he's going to be the first of his breed. Expecting the guy to be a historical outlier is just not all that reasonable a thing. It's all well and good to hope for it. But hope needs to be tempered by logic that includes an objective looksee at the entirety of a player's performance. Bad stuff and all.


While I will agree with some of what you said there, I think that the most probable thing is that Bailey continues to grow as a pitcher and gets better with age. That is what happens with most pitchers. This is quite a big jump for him, and I think it is a little to early, but I think we all expected him to see Chattanooga sometime this year, whether we agreed with it or not. Maybe I have more faith than you do, which is fine. I just see Bailey, as time goes on and works more that he will be able to maintain a more consistant level of success.

And I think that's the gap, doug. You rely on faith. I rely on probability. While I enjoy our exchanges, many of them simply boil down to you relying, IMHO, too much on the former and disregarding too much of the latter because you're using a BA style of evaluation that focuses a ton on a "ceiling" that hasn't been reached consistently enough thusfar while discounting the middle and the floor as being non-representational of what the player could do. Problem with that it just seems illogical to me to continue to focus on a ceiling that hasn't been reached often enough as truly representing what's most probable for the future.

And if what's most probable for the future is that Bailey gets better (and more consistent) with age, then we're looking at a true pitching renaissance of epic proportions considering that we should expect a bunch of A-Ball pitchers who've performed as well or better than Bailey to get better with age right alongside him and hit the Show as #1 or #2 Starting Pitchers. And that's just the Florida State League.

Don't get me wrong. There are things about Homer Bailey that I like and I desperately hope that he might be an historical outlier. Lord knows the Reds need it. But I can't, in good conscience, consider that hope to be a reasonable expectation. That's me standing pat on an 18 with a 6 showing for the dealer. I can't go any further than that with Bailey. He's got to show me he can rather than give indications that he might.

dougdirt
06-20-2006, 06:53 PM
Doug, I'm talking about start-to-start consistency. You're talking about "when he's on". Well, it's great that he's consistent during a specific ball game when he's "on", but he's not on often enough to be truly consistent. And in that context, I think we'd both agree that level of competition matters. If he's not consistent in high A-Ball, I don't see any reason to think he'll be any more consistent in AA.

I still think you missed what I was trying to say. What I was getting at is what you said above. Game to game he is inconsistant becuase he still hasnt figured out why he can locate one day and not the next. What I was trying to say was that I dont think he will simply figure it out becuase he is in Sarasota or becuase he is in Chattanooga.



Again, we can't cull the mediocre from the mix. And you're including starts that were mediocre at best to get to your "8 of 12" percentage.

And you should buy the blackjack analogy because you're betting against the odds here. If Homer Bailey manages to turn into a true long-term ace-level Starting Pitcher, he's going to be the first of his breed. Expecting the guy to be a historical outlier is just not all that reasonable a thing. It's all well and good to hope for it. But hope needs to be tempered by logic that includes an objective looksee at the entirety of a player's performance. Bad stuff and all.
Yeah, I would say some of those games were middle of the road games, but again, I dont think one can dominate every game. I will take games of 2-3 earned runs. I am not going to get into the statistical outlier thing, becuase as you know, we have been through that one a few too many times. No need to go through it again.
My hope comes from what I have seen from him. I have seen that at times, a 20 year old has been able to dominate his competition. I have also seen that at times, he hasnt been so hot. While it does happen at times that players as they grow and mature perform to the lower end of their abilities, more often players perform a little closer to the higher end of that spectrum. At the ripe age of 20, I am not too worried about Bailey just losing his 95 MPH fastball and any ability to locate his change or curve more often than not over the course of his next 5 years. like you said below, I am relying on faith that Bailey continues to grow and mature as a pitcher and locate his pitches better as he throws more and more.



And I think that's the gap, doug. You rely on faith. I rely on probability. While I enjoy our exchanges, many of them simply boil down to you relying, IMHO, too much on the former and disregarding too much of the latter because you're using a BA style of evaluation that focuses a ton on a "ceiling" that hasn't been reached consistently enough thusfar while discounting the middle and the floor as being non-representational of what the player could do. Problem with that it just seems illogical to me to continue to focus on a ceiling that hasn't been reached often enough as truly representing what's most probable for the future.

Well that is where we differ Steel, I think as time goes on he will get closer and closer to what you want to see, so I am buying in now. You need to see more on the field results, which is fine. I just see it the other way in a sense. He isnt Mark Rogers, who seems to have the right stuff, but hasnt been able to show much of anything at all other than he can give up hits and strike out 12 guys a game.

cincyinco
06-20-2006, 06:55 PM
He's got to show me he can rather than give indications that he might.

And therin lies what I feel gets overlooked by those who demand results and that is projectability. I understand 100% where you're coming from Steele, but there are 2 sides to a coin - there is no exact science to it, and in fact, its a pretty bad science as far as successful hits go in projecting a players true ceiling and true ability - but I think thats a part of the equation that gets discounted by a lot of folks. Just my humble opinion.

As you said, there's a top, a middle, and a bottom floor... But there wouldn't be that high of a ceiling for homer if he didn't flash the ability.. and I would argue he has at times flashed that 'ace' ability. Whether that translates too the ML level is still up to Bailey and the Reds development staff. We'll see what we get, but I'm certainly excited about his "prospect" and ability to succeed. Maybe I should temper my enthusiasm a little bit, but I do try to be as objective as possible with all prospects and even more so with Reds prospects.. I hate homerism. That said, I believe in Homer.. heh.

:beerme:

SteelSD
06-21-2006, 02:18 AM
I still think you missed what I was trying to say. What I was getting at is what you said above. Game to game he is inconsistant becuase he still hasnt figured out why he can locate one day and not the next. What I was trying to say was that I dont think he will simply figure it out becuase he is in Sarasota or becuase he is in Chattanooga.

That being said, if he's going to figure it out, he should have already figured it out at the lower level because if he hasn't figured it out there I hold little hope that he's going to figure it out versus better competition.


Yeah, I would say some of those games were middle of the road games, but again, I dont think one can dominate every game. I will take games of 2-3 earned runs. I am not going to get into the statistical outlier thing, becuase as you know, we have been through that one a few too many times. No need to go through it again.

Doug, you and I both know that we're hoping that Bailey is a an outlier. I don't see how bringing that up degrades the conversation. You project him to do it. I don't, although I hope he can. That's the long and the short of our gap when it comes to Homer Bailey and I think it's relevant to the discussion because, if ignored, then we're looking at Bailey as just another guy. But he's not just another guy. He's a guy who was pimped as having ridiculous potential who hasn't delivered on that as yet. We both hope he can, of course, but if he does he's the first of his breed. And that's a huge part of my analysis because it includes considerations beyond the norm.


My hope comes from what I have seen from him. I have seen that at times, a 20 year old has been able to dominate his competition. I have also seen that at times, he hasnt been so hot. While it does happen at times that players as they grow and mature perform to the lower end of their abilities, more often players perform a little closer to the higher end of that spectrum. At the ripe age of 20, I am not too worried about Bailey just losing his 95 MPH fastball and any ability to locate his change or curve more often than not over the course of his next 5 years. like you said below, I am relying on faith that Bailey continues to grow and mature as a pitcher and locate his pitches better as he throws more and more.

You're relying on faith and I'm relying on history. There's a big gap there because history tells us that a goodly portion of guy like Bailey never end up "getting it". Well, it's beyond a goodly portion. And no, inconsistent players who put up mediocre numbers do NOT more often perform a little closer to the higher end of their "ceiling".

Don't get me wrong, faith is fine. But at some point faith has to be tempered with realistic expectations. You're projecting that everything Bailey is doing well will, at minimum, be just as good while he moves up the ladder. But then you're also projecting that everything Bailey isn't good at will improve as he moves up the ladder. You're right- that's a faith-based assessment. But my perspective is "How likely is that all to happen?" And it ain't bloody likely at this point. If it happens, then we're going to have an historical outlier on out hands. Super. Great. Unimaginable. But let's not kid ourselves about what we're asking for. We're asking for a guy who wasn't as good as his peer group to suddenly get really really good just because he gets older. You might be able to hang your hat on that occurring, but I can't.


Well that is where we differ Steel, I think as time goes on he will get closer and closer to what you want to see, so I am buying in now. You need to see more on the field results, which is fine. I just see it the other way in a sense. He isnt Mark Rogers, who seems to have the right stuff, but hasnt been able to show much of anything at all other than he can give up hits and strike out 12 guys a game.

Well, if you're comparing Bailey to Rogers then I can see where you've got a point. But then, Rogers was one of the stupid picks of the first round in 2004 along with Matt Bush. But the simple fact is that Bailey, for all the hype, hasn't outproduced a number of guys who were selected later than he.

And that's the thing. Bailey thows hard, but not exceptionally hard. He's allegedly got a great curve that he can't consistently throw for strikes and a third pitch he hasn't developed yet. This was supposed to be the most "polished" HS pitcher but guys drafted behind him have dominated their competition and/or accelerated more quickly through their system(s). When Bailey's on, he can overpower. But that doesn't matter to MLB hitters because they can strike a 95 MPH fastball pretty well and are able to slam a hanging curve into the seats. Problem is that in a high-A pitcher's league we saw too much of that already when Bailey wasn't "on".

And it's not like you're buying in now. You've bought in from the get-go. I haven't because I need to see results that equate the money handed to him and the performance that indicates he can reach his ceiling on a consistent basis. If he can do that at AA, you'll have a believer with a capital "B".

M2
06-21-2006, 12:17 PM
What I was trying to say was that I dont think he will simply figure it out becuase he is in Sarasota or becuase he is in Chattanooga.

IMO, moving him to AA, where the hitters are better, when he hasn't figured it out in A ball has the potential to screw him up big time. It's Peter Principle development and I've never seen any indication that it's a good idea.



I will take games of 2-3 earned runs.

Except you know for a rock-solid fact that three of Bailey's starts that you're now claiming were all right in actuality weren't very good. He gave up too many baserunners and pitched 12.1 IP combined in those starts. I'd rather have his four-run effort from 5/24 than any of those starts. At least in that one he pitched 6.1 IP and was generally stingy outside of two mistakes that went over the fence.


And therin lies what I feel gets overlooked by those who demand results and that is projectability. I understand 100% where you're coming from Steele, but there are 2 sides to a coin - there is no exact science to it, and in fact, its a pretty bad science as far as successful hits go in projecting a players true ceiling and true ability - but I think thats a part of the equation that gets discounted by a lot of folks.

My take is the younger a kid is, the less time he's had to establish himself, the easier it is to invent a false ceiling for him. For me, projectability is code for "fond hopes." Homer's got talent, no one's ever questioned that. He just hasn't translated it in a way that's fairly common for top pitching prospects. I don't think anyone on this planet really understands what his ceiling is or what exactly he is at the moment. It's why I'd like to see some caution applied to the kid. Bailey could stand having the time and space to find himself.

ochre
06-21-2006, 12:56 PM
brrr.

The loses focus angle just gave me flashbacks to Brett Tomko.

15fan
06-21-2006, 01:32 PM
IMO, moving him to AA, where the hitters are better, when he hasn't figured it out in A ball has the potential to screw him up big time. It's Peter Principle development and I've never seen any indication that it's a good idea.

:clap:

KronoRed
06-21-2006, 04:07 PM
brrr.

The loses focus angle just gave me flashbacks to Brett Tomko.
So we can trade Homer for a HOFer in a few years?

WOO