Improbable Victory

[oneupper]

Great Win last night. But I don't think fans understand HOW improbable it was considering we were down to our last out (bases empty).

Here's how Win Expectancy moved in that Last inning:

Inning Starts: 0.133
Lopez K's 0.075
Griffey GO: 0.026
Kearns BB: 0.054
Ross BB: 0.126
Aurilia IF: 0.250
Phillips 2R H: 0.834
Valentin FO: 0.811

Bottom 9th:

Beltran Walks: 0.680
Delgado FO: 0.788
Wright DP: 1.000


The win expectancy of was down to 2.6%...which means only about 1 in 40 times does a team in this situation come back to win.

Phillips' single had a huge WE attached: 0.584...
In comparison, Dunn's game winning homer last week against Mil was: 0.267.

Lady LUCK shined on the Reds last night.

[redsmetz]

Great Win last night. But I don't think fans understand HOW improbable it was considering we were down to our last out (bases empty).

Here's how Win Expectancy moved in that Last inning:

Inning Starts: 0.133
Lopez K's 0.075
Griffey GO: 0.026
Kearns BB: 0.054
Ross BB: 0.126
Aurilia IF: 0.250
Phillips 2R H: 0.834
Valentin FO: 0.811

Bottom 9th:

Beltran Walks: 0.680
Delgado FO: 0.788
Wright DP: 1.000


The win expectancy of was down to 2.6%...which means only about 1 in 40 times does a team in this situation come back to win.

Phillips' single had a huge WE attached: 0.584...
In comparison, Dunn's game winning homer last week against Mil was: 0.267.

Lady LUCK shined on the Reds last night.

I'm thrilled with the win, but I'm wondering if our unofficial motto is "Better Lucky Than Good" [I'm really not wanting that to sound pessimistic, but I can see how it might be read that way - it was a very exciting win].

[Far East]

Ross' walk, McCracken's pinch running, and Aurilia's pinch hit (although of the infield dribbler variety) were key contributions from the bench and from Narron's bench managing last night.

Even the double play to end the game was made more probable with Narron's having virtually 4 shortstops around the infield in the ninth (Castro, Lopez, Phillips, and RA).

And Jerry would even have looked better if the pinch hitting Valentine had been able to pull that first fastball instead of driving it to the deepest part of the park.

Too bad that Mays had not been extended enough (in AAA, if that's the case) to have lasted longer. A couple of hanging "nothing balls" from Hammonds made the manager's decision to lift Mays look bad. Had CH been able to keep those pitches down (as he usually does), it would have made a different game altogether.

[TeamBoone]

Well........ Aurilia sure was lucky. That could have been the end right there if the ball was fielded (and it looked to me like it should have been).

[Kc61]

Another interesting aspect of game: Dunn was removed for defense. Ross wound up hitting in his spot in ninth and Wagner walked him, then pinchrunner scored winning run.

What would have happened if Dunn hit against Wagner in that spot?

[Unassisted]

It was a strange win to be sure. The SNY network showed Narron in the Reds dugout at the end and he looked irritated. I didn't see anyone behind him who looked happy about the win.

I sure was pleased, though! Maybe Narron would have been happier if he'd seen those figures on how improbable the win was?

[westofyou]

Another interesting aspect of game: Dunn was removed for defense. Ross wound up hitting in his spot in ninth and Wagner walked him, then pinchrunner scored winning run.

What would have happened if Dunn hit against Wagner in that spot?
He missed two at bats, what would have happened if he didn't miss the first one?

[dabvu2498]

He missed two at bats, what would have happened if he didn't miss the first one?
He only missed one. The five spot in the order came up 5 times. Four times, Dunn was there. Once, Ross.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/scores106/106172/MLB672629.htm#playbyplay

That said, I still thought it was sorta silly when Narron made the change. You take offense out of the lineup when you're up 1 with the slop of a bullpen we have...

[ochre]

I'm finding that, win expectancy aside, most Reds wins, due largely to the bullpen, are improbable.

[redsmetz]

Well........ Aurilia sure was lucky. That could have been the end right there if the ball was fielded (and it looked to me like it should have been).

As I understood Marty calling it, Kearns had made it to third all ready by the time Wright fielded it. I didn't see the game, so I don't know.

[westofyou]

He only missed one. The five spot in the order came up 5 times. Four times, Dunn was there. Once, Ross.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/scores106/106172/MLB672629.htm#playbyplay

That said, I still thought it was sorta silly when Narron made the change. You take offense out of the lineup when you're up 1 with the slop of a bullpen we have...

Correct, my bad.

Then KC was wrong, Ross didn't bat in Castros slot (which was Dunn's)

[westofyou]

As I understood Marty calling it, Kearns had made it to third all ready by the time Wright fielded it. I didn't see the game, so I don't know.
Wright should not have fielded it, he might have gotten a different result. But he insured that he'd get only one by picking it up.

[dabvu2498]

Correct, my bad.

Then KC was wrong, Ross didn't bat in Castros slot (which was Dunn's)
It was a double switch... Castro went to 9 hole, pitchers spot to 5. Ross PH in pitchers spot.

George Grande had it all messed up. He even said "Adam Dunn will be on deck" when he was already out of the game. I thought maybe we'd gone with the high school re-entry rule.

[westofyou]

It was a double switch... Castro went to 9 hole, pitchers spot to 5. Ross PH in pitchers spot.

George Grande had it all messed up. He even said "Adam Dunn will be on deck" when he was already out of the game. I thought maybe we'd gone with the high school re-entry rule.
Got it... I was making a lasagna during the double switch and well... now I got it.

[dabvu2498]

Wright should not have fielded it, he might have gotten a different result. But he insured that he'd get only one by picking it up.
If he had let it go, it either would have gone foul or hit the bag. It wasn't travelling very quickly, so it wouldn't have gone very far if it had hit the bag. In other words, I don't believe Kearns could have scored. That said, Wright's brain got locked up. It still may have been the right play because there were 2 outs.

[Redhook]

If he had let it go, it either would have gone foul or hit the bag. It wasn't travelling very quickly, so it wouldn't have gone very far if it had hit the bag. In other words, I don't believe Kearns could have scored. That said, Wright's brain got locked up. It still may have been the right play because there were 2 outs.

You're absolutely right. There's no way Kearns would've scored if Wright let the ball go by him and it stayed fair. The ball was probably rolling 3 mph. Should he have let it with the possibly of it curving foul? Probably, but even with the ball traveling slowly you can't let the ball go by you like that with a runner coming to third. He was a little confused, but I think he made the right decision and it ended up working real well for us :) .

[NJReds]

As I understood Marty calling it, Kearns had made it to third all ready by the time Wright fielded it. I didn't see the game, so I don't know.

The only think Wright might have been able to do with that ball is let it go to see if it went foul. However, there was enough pace on the ball that if it skipped past him and hit the bag, it could've bounced far enough away to let Kearns score. Wright did the only thing he could have under the circumstance. Aurila and the Reds were very fortunate.

[Far East]

The only think Wright might have been able to do with that ball is let it go to see if it went foul. However, there was enough pace on the ball that if it skipped past him and hit the bag, it could've bounced far enough away to let Kearns score. Wright did the only thing he could have under the circumstance. Aurila and the Reds were very fortunate.

Or he could have picked it up and in his haste winged it far down the right field foul line.

[LincolnparkRed]

Or he could have picked it up and in his haste winged it far down the right field foul line.

like he already had with freel as the first batter of the game.

Quick question though say Kearns gets to 3rd as the ball arrives, if he has touched the bag and then the ball were to hit him is he out?

[dabvu2498]

like he already had with freel as the first batter of the game.

Quick question though say Kearns gets to 3rd as the ball arrives, if he has touched the bag and then the ball were to hit him is he out?
No... he was behind the infielder (Wright) who had the opportunity to field the ball.

[reds44]

The only part of that inning that was lucky was the RA play. The rest was being patient, and then BP got a fastball that he knew was coming. Then the bottom of the 9th was being patient pitching, and not giving them any good pitches to hit.

[TeamBoone]

You're absolutely right. There's no way Kearns would've scored if Wright let the ball go by him and it stayed fair. The ball was probably rolling 3 mph. Should he have let it with the possibly of it curving foul? Probably, but even with the ball traveling slowly you can't let the ball go by you like that with a runner coming to third. He was a little confused, but I think he made the right decision and it ended up working real well for us :) .

The ball was 5-6 feet inside the foul line... it never would have rolled that far.




It was a strange win to be sure. The SNY network showed Narron in the Reds dugout at the end and he looked irritated. I didn't see anyone behind him who looked happy about the win.

Why on earth would he not be happy about a win? Please enlighten me.