PDA

View Full Version : Buyers? Sellers? Neither?



RedEye
06-23-2006, 01:39 PM
If the Reds play at .500 or just below it for the next few weeks, which seems likely, they will be somewhere between five games over and even .500 in the middle of July. As the second week of the seventh month is traditionally the moment when GM's around the league begin trade talks, this puts home team in a strange place, somewhere between contention and extinction. What do you think Krivsky and co. should do? I think there are strong arguments on either side, as well as a strong one to stand pat.

Buyers

The Reds have been struggling for about five years now, and the new front office should make some moves to prove that this team is different from the 2002 and 2004 editions. The fan base needs it, and a spark like that could really boost attendance. Depending on who is available and for what price, the Reds should go after a strong starter and some bullpen help. It is always a big mistake to assume that things will go better in the future. In 2007, Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang could turn back into pumpkins and Junior could pull up lame in the first week. This team still has a surplus of good, young hitting to work with and also has some big name prospects (Bruce, Bailey, Votto, Wood) to further entice trade partners like the Marlins, Giants, Mariners, and Pirates. There is no time like the present to deal for pitching. We've spent too much time since 1999 engaged in double-talk, rationalizing ourselves out of contention with "small market this" and "small market that". The time is now!

Sellers

This team has already turned into a pumpkin, and we're better off building for the future than trading young talent that could help form the foundation of competitive teams in the future. Yes, this team has a surplus of hitting talent, but we should use it to acquire younger talent to fortify the AA and AAA squads, which are talent poor right now. A stronger farm system could really boost the chances of maintaining a strong major league nucleus for the foreseeable future. The trade deadline is the only time you really get trading partners who are desperate for that one final piece they need for a championship run. Austin Kearns, Ken Griffey, Adam Dunn or Felipe Lopez might all fetch good talent from one of those teams. The time is now, yes, but it's time to sell!

Stand Pat

The Reds success this year is nice, but it is no reason to lose perspective on what Kriv and the front office are doing. Despite the rhetoric Bob gives to "winning now", not even he expected "now" to mean "this year at this exact moment". If the front office is smart, they will maintain a low profile over the next month, surveying the scene for offers they can't refuse, but avoiding the frantic, snap decisions involved in true buying and selling. They've already done a nice job acquiring some key pieces (Arroyo, Phillips) and developing some others (Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Stubbs). Yes, the team is outperforming most expectations, but trading a big piece of the puzzle now (Dunn, Kearns, Griffey, Lopez) could really disrupt the chemistry that has been so important to the Reds' improbable rise in 2006. This year's success has been a pleasant surprise, but what we need to do at this point is just ride it out. The off-season is the time when this team can really be improved. Everybody needs to calm down, put things in perspective, and wait till next year.

Thoughts?

savafan
06-23-2006, 01:45 PM
This team is good, but not great. They need to make a move to prove to the fans that this isn't the same old Cincinnati Reds, get out to the ballpark and watch a great team.

Reds1
06-23-2006, 01:56 PM
If we went 10 games under .500 I stlil think this owner and GM will try and improve. The big thing is if say we do very well and are not only in the thick of it, but leading WC, etc. will we trade prospects like Dino, Homer, etc. for short term help. Like would you trade Bailey for Smoltz just for this year. I wouldn't, but that's not my call. This FO has been creative and I'd say incredible getting 2 guys that should be starting in the AS game in Phillips and Bell. So that being said it's going to be fun!

jimbo
06-23-2006, 01:57 PM
I would like to see Krivsky, if this is the situation come mid-July, become a buyer but not to the point where we are trading off our top minor league prospects. I've said this before, I want this team to become a consistant winner and I really feel that it has to maintain a strong minor league system because the Reds will have a hard time competing in the free agency market with the likes of the Yankes, Red Sox, Mets, etc.

That being said, I would be more inclined to trade some of the younger players on the team now that will be demanding more money in the next couple of years. I think Kearns, Lopez, Dunn, or EE could land some nice pitching or be packeged in a deal with other lesser players. With Denorfia ready right now to be an everyday player in the majors and Freel being so versatile, losing one of the players mentioned could be filled easily with these two guys and in my opinion with an improvement in the pitching the team would still be strong enough to contend.

I realize it may not be popular trading a few of the players I mentioned, but I still say that championships are won by pitching. This team desperately needs help in the bullpen and it is easier to replace position players than it is to find a top closer.

crazybob60
06-23-2006, 02:16 PM
This team is good, but not great. They need to make a move to prove to the fans that this isn't the same old Cincinnati Reds, get out to the ballpark and watch a great team.

I couldn't agree with you more on this one!!! I just hope that they don't deal for something like a Kerry Wood and/or a Mark Prior who would just turn around and get injured just as well...that's a fear for me.

saboforthird
06-23-2006, 02:43 PM
It could go any number of ways. Personally, I have no opinion on the matters simply because the race is still close. With Pujols coming back, things will begin to clear up a bit. If the Reds continue to stand stationary on the bases, that will clear things up. We already know the bullpen situation. That's just my opinion. :laugh:

RedEye
06-23-2006, 06:09 PM
Hmmm... well, after reading my own post, I realize it's a bit too long. But I'm have to go for a splice of the "Sellers" and the "Stand Pat" perspectives. The Reds need some sort of deal to look like they're serious, but they don't want to mortgage the future at the same time.

Razor Shines
06-23-2006, 06:18 PM
I hope we're buyers, but I'm concerned about how much we'll have to give up to get a couple decent guys for the pen. And how much offense can we afford to give up? I'd like to think that last night was a fluke for Milton but in the same respect I hope that the other night was not just a fluke for Joe Mays. Seems like I'm doing a lot of wishful thinking though, I suppose that's part of being a fan.

EKURed
06-23-2006, 06:41 PM
My question is how many other teams' fans would even be considering being a seller at this point of the season when they are in the position the Reds are in? My guess is not very many.

Remember when the Reds sold an 8-2 Denny Neagle off at the All Star Break in 2000 in a trade that was supposed to set the Reds up for future success??? That was six years ago. How much success have the Reds had the past 6 years? You don't pick the year, the year picks you. If you can get a guy you can actually keep beyond this year, I'm all for trading but that lists excludes the following three minor league prospects: Bailey, Wood, and Bruce.

RedEye
06-23-2006, 07:45 PM
Remember when the Reds sold an 8-2 Denny Neagle off at the All Star Break in 2000 in a trade that was supposed to set the Reds up for future success???

Ah yes... Henson, Melian, Reith & Yarnall. That was supposed to be the booty of the century. Well, Henson sucked and then morphed into Wily Mo, so I guess that's good. After that... well... I remember Reith pitching gopher balls for awhile, but Melian and Yarnall never really did anything. Your point is well taken.

LoganBuck
06-23-2006, 11:38 PM
My question is how many other teams' fans would even be considering being a seller at this point of the season when they are in the position the Reds are in? My guess is not very many.

Remember when the Reds sold an 8-2 Denny Neagle off at the All Star Break in 2000 in a trade that was supposed to set the Reds up for future success??? That was six years ago. How much success have the Reds had the past 6 years? You don't pick the year, the year picks you. If you can get a guy you can actually keep beyond this year, I'm all for trading but that lists excludes the following three minor league prospects: Bailey, Wood, and Bruce.

In a manner of speaking Denny Neagle became Bronson Arroyo today. Neagle begot Henson, Henson begot Wily Mo, Wily Mo begot Arroyo.

savafan
06-23-2006, 11:43 PM
In a manner of speaking Denny Neagle became Bronson Arroyo today. Neagle begot Henson, Henson begot Wily Mo, Wily Mo begot Arroyo.

And the Reds victories were plentiful, and the Lord blessed them. And the fans saw it, but some still doubted with seeds planted by the evil media. But when October rolleth around, and the Reds still stand mighty, many will see and the number of believers among them will grow. ;)

Razor Shines
06-24-2006, 12:54 AM
And the Reds victories were plentiful, and the Lord blessed them. And the fans saw it, but some still doubted with seeds planted by the evil media. But when October rolleth around, and the Reds still stand mighty, many will see and the number of believers among them will grow. ;)
What must we do to be saved? Believe in Todd Coffey?

savafan
06-24-2006, 01:06 AM
Believe in Todd Coffey?

Coffey is a great prophet, but not the One. Though voices in the west may call out "Griffey is not your savior" you should not listen to them. Be not afraid, the child will lead us to the promised land.

:D

paulrichjr
06-24-2006, 01:35 AM
In a manner of speaking Denny Neagle became Bronson Arroyo today. Neagle begot Henson, Henson begot Wily Mo, Wily Mo begot Arroyo.


And some are already saying we should trade Arroyo.

schroomytunes
06-24-2006, 02:32 AM
I think we need to acquire a bullpen guy, one who will be under contract for awhile, but not something that we have to give up top prospects for.

an Idea- Reds trade William Bergolla and Chris Denorfia to the Royals for Ambriox Burgos.

KronoRed
06-24-2006, 02:38 AM
If we fall out of the race..then Arroyo begat 2 Aces? :D

Henry Clay
06-25-2006, 12:39 AM
I think the call as to whether the Reds should buy or sell depends on who is available for what. If someone will take a big contract like Griffey's for a comparable talent exchange sans injury risk, the team has to consider it. I hardly think that makes the Reds a seller. Such a move could free up payroll for a later "buy." The same type of thing applies if a Smoltz becomes available to the Reds. If Clemens makes Houston competitive, what would Smoltz do for the Reds? I know this sounds squishy, but I really think it all depends on the players & money involved.