PDA

View Full Version : Tidbits...



Matt700wlw
06-25-2006, 12:12 PM
Reds record Monday thru Friday: 33-19, .635

Reds record on the weekend: 7-16, .304

Where's the pop?
This offense has scored fewer than 3 runs 20 times this year! 1-19 record
When this team homers they are 32-19
When this team does not homer they are 8-16

Freel Factor
When Ryan Freel starts this team is 29-20 .591
When Ryan Freel does not start this team is 11-15 .423

Catch this!
When Jason LaRue starts this team is 17-11 .607
When David Ross starts this team is 15-13 .535

Who's on first?
When Rich Aurilia starts at 1B they are 12-6
When Hatteberg starts at 1B they are 28-27
When Adam Dunn starts at 1B they are 0-2

Center of attention
When Ken Griffey Jr starts in CF they are 21-22
When Ryan Free starts in CF they are 16-11
When anyone other than Jr starts in CF they are 19-13

Moneyball this
Ken Griffey Jr's on base percentage is .315, lowest of career

Where's the pipeline?
The Reds have 23 pitchers on their 40-man roster, only two were drafted by Jim Bowden...Todd Coffey and Ryan Wagner. Only 3 total came from within the system including Chris Hammond.


Adam Dunn numbers

Current ML rank for Adam Dunn
43 rbi's......57th
.364 OBP......61st
.901 OPS......38th
On pace for 95 rbi's......last year 33 players had more than 95 rbi's
Runners on .178
Runners on, two outs .133
Runners in scoring position .150
Runners in scoring position with 2 outs .160
After count gets to 0-2 against him: 1 for 40
vs RHP batting . 195
vs LHP batting .289
Since May 1st.....35 for 175 (.200).......26 rbi, 34 walks, 50 k's

How many players are on pace to have their batting average, on base %, slugging and OPS drop for the third straight year?
Drops, by year, from 2004 to now:
Average: .266, .247, .223
OBP: .388, .387, .364
SLG: .569, .540, .539
OPS: .957, .927, .903

Runners in scoring position since 2003 .214 in 425 ab's






Per Lance

pedro
06-25-2006, 12:27 PM
interesting.

Edskin
06-25-2006, 12:50 PM
Can anyone tell me how many RBI'S Dunn has this year on NON-HR's--- I'm doing a little something but not smart enough to find this answer. Thanks

westofyou
06-25-2006, 12:53 PM
On pace....... the what if aspect of baseball.

So many factors..

Ask Reggie Jackson about on pace in 1969.

pedro
06-25-2006, 12:54 PM
Can anyone tell me how many RBI'S Dunn has this year on NON-HR's--- I'm doing a little something but not smart enough to find this answer. Thanks


you'd have to go through his game logs. A better question would be, why does it matter? Don't RBI from HR's count? Are RBI from singles somehow magically better? Dunn is playing poorly right now and he is still leading the team in RBI and runs scored, and yet a lot of folks don't want to acknowledge that fact because they don't how he's doing it.

Edskin
06-25-2006, 01:06 PM
I'm not saying that RBI's from HR's are less essential than non HR's-- not at all. Just curious to see what the number is.

My point is that I think the two schools of thought on Dunn are BOTH wrong. I don't view him as a Dave Kingman and I don't view him as great young player either.

I love his OPS-- I think it's very important and the fact that he K's at such a high rate really doesn't bother me because he walks so often.

What does bother me is his numbers w/ RISP-- I know we've been down this road before, but I'm sorry, those numbers are a bit shocking.

It just seems to me that a guy that has the talent to belt 23 HR's so far should be finding ways to drive in more runs overall.

I still think Dunn is a well above average player w/ a celiling somewhere around "very good." But I don't see "greatness" or anything elite in him, and that's why he is NOT an untouchable when it comes to the trading block, IMO.

Edskin
06-25-2006, 01:10 PM
Further.........

With Dunn's RBI's coming seemingly at totally random times (doesn't seem to matter if he has runners on or not), I'd put him in the lead-of spot and leave him there. I know this would raise eyebrows, but here is my ideal line-up:

Dunn 1B
Freel CF
Kearns RF
Junior LF
Edwin 3B
Phillips 2B
Lopez SS
Ross C

pedro
06-25-2006, 01:11 PM
I'm not saying that RBI's from HR's are less essential than non HR's-- not at all. Just curious to see what the number is.

My point is that I think the two schools of thought on Dunn are BOTH wrong. I don't view him as a Dave Kingman and I don't view him as great young player either.

I love his OPS-- I think it's very important and the fact that he K's at such a high rate really doesn't bother me because he walks so often.

What does bother me is his numbers w/ RISP-- I know we've been down this road before, but I'm sorry, those numbers are a bit shocking.

It just seems to me that a guy that has the talent to belt 23 HR's so far should be finding ways to drive in more runs overall.

I still think Dunn is a well above average player w/ a celiling somewhere around "very good." But I don't see "greatness" or anything elite in him, and that's why he is NOT an untouchable when it comes to the trading block, IMO.

They are this year, but not for his career. But you also have to realize that the difference in between him hitting what he's hitting with RISP and hitting his career average is about 6 hits, which really isn't that many. I've seen him smoke several balls with RISP that ended up being outs, with just a little more luck those numbers would be quite different owing to the small percentage of AB's that actually occur with RISP.

The number that is shocking to me is Dunn's incredibly low BAPIP with to me suggest that he is having a lot of bad luck (in addition to hitting a lot of weak GB's to 1B lately)

Edskin
06-25-2006, 01:15 PM
We touched on this in the Hatteberg thread, but Dunn's plate approach seems totally inconsistent lately. Sometimes he looks poised and patient, then he looks absolutely baffled and goes down softly. Is he just guessing? It's not working for him very well right now.

kheidg-
06-25-2006, 02:08 PM
Catch this!
When Jason LaRue starts this team is 17-11 .607
When David Ross starts this team is 15-13 .535


This is what I found most interesting. I thought the club was doing much better with Ross starting, at least considering that most of his wins came with Arroyo pitching.

westofyou
06-25-2006, 02:32 PM
What does bother me is his numbers w/ RISP-- I know we've been down this road before, but I'm sorry, those numbers are a bit shocking.

Reggie Jackson RISP 1970-1972

.259/.403/.446
.198/.299/.306
.325/.447/.575

Harmon Killebrew RISP 1959-1961

.254/.375/.574
.214/.345/.357
.321/.427/.650

Mike Schmidt RISP 1976-1980

.287/.398/.556
.232/.400/.448
.219/.375/.438
.230/.387/.466
.284/.374/.676

Adam Dunn Career (pre 2006)

.218/.424/.467

Dunn in 2006 (23% of total ab's)

.150/.369/.517

Looks like the batting average is dragging him down this year (in all aspects of his approach, RISP, no one on)

With 60 RISP at bats in 2006 representing exactly 2.3% of his at bats in his career I'm of the mind to maybe wait this out before I get worried, and from what I can see in the search of the types of players that most resemble Dunn I wouldn't be surprised if he has a bad year in that situation all year.

Marc D
06-25-2006, 04:47 PM
I think ultimately, peoples satisfaction with Dunn will always be in direct proportion to their attachment to BA.

edabbs44
06-25-2006, 05:06 PM
you'd have to go through his game logs. A better question would be, why does it matter? Don't RBI from HR's count? Are RBI from singles somehow magically better? Dunn is playing poorly right now and he is still leading the team in RBI and runs scored, and yet a lot of folks don't want to acknowledge that fact because they don't how he's doing it.
I think it has more to do with consistency. You can have a team score 10 runs per game in 81 games and get shutout in the other 81. The team will be no better than 81-81 and probably worse. But they would still rank pretty high in the runs standings.

I think the stat was given a few weeks ago where 74% of Dunn's RBI were generated by HRs.

RedLegSuperStar
06-25-2006, 10:40 PM
Lance.. Miss you on my drive home! Good stuff though.. Thanks Matt!

Dunn has been just looking flat out UGLY! Seems only hits he's getting are homers or balls hitting the catchers mit for strike 3. This is going to sound far far fetched but would a trip to Louisville be out of the question? I'm not trying to be a Dunn basher... but a guy who signs a huge contract and putts up a .220 average with 24 bombs and a handfull more RBI's is sad.. Not from a Homerun aspect but from a all around baseball aspect. With the stats mentioned above he doesn't hit for average, he doesn't work counts, he strikesout a lot, and he fails to do the little things like moving runners along or sac flies. Dunn needs to spread out that "Raw" talent and hit the ball to all fields, and hit for average. The HR's will be come.

KronoRed
06-25-2006, 10:45 PM
If we're sending him down for production then half the team needs to go as well.

RedLegSuperStar
06-25-2006, 10:54 PM
If we're sending him down for production then half the team needs to go as well.

I know.. I'm just glad im not the one signing Dunn's checks!

KronoRed
06-25-2006, 11:01 PM
They signed Casey's checks for years ;)

pedro
06-25-2006, 11:33 PM
I think it has more to do with consistency. You can have a team score 10 runs per game in 81 games and get shutout in the other 81. The team will be no better than 81-81 and probably worse. But they would still rank pretty high in the runs standings.

I think the stat was given a few weeks ago where 74% of Dunn's RBI were generated by HRs.


If the team wants to score consistently they have to get on base more consistently. Dunn is still the best on the team at getting on base. It's not his fault some of his teammates don't get on base enough.

reds44
06-25-2006, 11:38 PM
If the team wants to score consistently they have to get on base more consistently. Dunn is still the best on the team at getting on base. It's not his fault some of his teammates don't get on base enough.
Wrong.

The Hat is the best, followed by Ross (although who knows if he will keep that up), followed by Freel. Dunn and Edwin are tied for 4th.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=cin&section1=1&statSet1=1&sortByStat=OBP&statType=1&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2006&baseballScope=null&prevPage1=1&readBoxes=true&subScope=teamCode&teamPosCode=cin&box3=XXXX115608cin3&box4=XXXX424325cin2&box5=XXXX150472cinO&box7=XXXX276055cinO&box8=XXXX429665cin5&compare.x=25&compare.y=8

oneupper
06-25-2006, 11:40 PM
On pace....... the what if aspect of baseball.

So many factors..

Ask Reggie Jackson about on pace in 1969.

Or Matt Williams in 1994?

pedro
06-26-2006, 01:33 AM
Wrong.

The Hat is the best, followed by Ross (although who knows if he will keep that up), followed by Freel. Dunn and Edwin are tied for 4th.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=cin&section1=1&statSet1=1&sortByStat=OBP&statType=1&timeFrame=1&timeSubFrame=2006&baseballScope=null&prevPage1=1&readBoxes=true&subScope=teamCode&teamPosCode=cin&box3=XXXX115608cin3&box4=XXXX424325cin2&box5=XXXX150472cinO&box7=XXXX276055cinO&box8=XXXX429665cin5&compare.x=25&compare.y=8


That's true right now after a wicked slump but history says that'll change. Regardless it still illustrates that Dunn really isn't the biggest problem with this offense.

WVRedsFan
06-26-2006, 01:45 AM
Further.........

With Dunn's RBI's coming seemingly at totally random times (doesn't seem to matter if he has runners on or not), I'd put him in the lead-of spot and leave him there. I know this would raise eyebrows, but here is my ideal line-up:

Dunn 1B
Freel CF
Kearns RF
Junior LF
Edwin 3B
Phillips 2B
Lopez SS
Ross C

Ed:

If you want that lineup, you'll need a different manager...one who is not so entangled with the past. I don't agree with Dunn leading off or Freel as a fixture in CF, but the rest seems logical. And if they'd let Lopez be himself with all his pop, we'd be sitting pretty with him in the third hole, but what you have now and in the forseeable future is Lopez or Freel leading off, Griffey in the third hole, Aurilia at cleanup, etc.

Ron Madden
06-26-2006, 01:55 AM
a guy who signs a huge contract and putts up a .220 average with 24 bombs and a handfull more RBI's is sad.. Not from a Homerun aspect but from a all around baseball aspect. With the stats mentioned above he doesn't hit for average, he doesn't work counts, he strikesout a lot, and he fails to do the little things like moving runners along or sac flies. Dunn needs to spread out that "Raw" talent and hit the ball to all fields, and hit for average. The HR's will be come.

Seems like a lotta folks want Adam Dunn to turn into Sean Casey,
including Jerry Narron. I think it's silly and makes no sense.


IMHO, the best thing to do is leave Dunn alone let him be Adam Dunn.
Sure he may strikeout more often than we would like, but he would still be a very productive hitter.

In trying to change Dunns approach at the plate we rob our offense of one of its most effective weapons.

reds44
06-26-2006, 02:02 AM
Seems like a lotta folks want Adam Dunn to turn into Sean Casey,
including Jerry Narron. I think it's silly and makes no sense.


IMHO, the best thing to do is leave Dunn alone let him be Adam Dunn.
Sure he may strikeout more often than we would like, but he would still be a very productive hitter.

In trying to change Dunns approach at the plate we rob our offense of one of its most effective weapons.
I don't care if Dunn hits to all fields. He can hit 100% of his balls to right field for all I care. I will take .265 from Adam Dunn ever year. He doesn't have to be fundamental at all, I want him to do is hit. And hitting (well) is something he hasn't been doing this entire season.

However this year he is hitting .220 and can't get a hit if his life depended on it with a man on base. That is not acceptable.

I agree with you though,

let Adam Dunn be Adam Dunn and let Felipe Lopez be Felipe Lopez. Don't try to make them something else to try and fit your system. Just because you need a leadoff hitter, doesn't mean you make Felipe one. He is more of a middle of the order guy then a leadoff hitter.

KittyDuran
06-26-2006, 08:29 AM
WOW...:laugh: Of all the tidbits that Matt posted the one about Dunn is the most talked about [imagine that!]. ;)

RANDY IN INDY
06-26-2006, 08:34 AM
WOW...:laugh: Of all the tidbits that Matt posted the one about Dunn is the most talked about [imagine that!]. ;)

Imagine that?;) The lightning rod of Redszone.

westofyou
06-26-2006, 10:34 AM
WOW...:laugh: Of all the tidbits that Matt posted the one about Dunn is the most talked about [imagine that!]. ;)
Yep, even with the Griffey having a .315 OB% Dunn's game is still beaten on.

Kinda sad eh?

Ltlabner
06-26-2006, 10:38 AM
let Adam Dunn be Adam Dunn and let Felipe Lopez be Felipe Lopez. Don't try to make them something else to try and fit your system. Just because you need a leadoff hitter, doesn't mean you make Felipe one. He is more of a middle of the order guy then a leadoff hitter.

Couldn't agree more. Wasn't constant "tinkering" one of the sins Don Gullett was accused of? I just don't understand why coaches and managers want to change hitters approaches at the plate. Change the approach that has worked for so long, has gotten the players to the majors, etc. I guess they feel it's part of their job to do something to take that player "to the next level". More often than not, it just screws them up. Let the players use their natural tallents, maybe refine those tallents a bit and help them when the struggle. Other than that, assemble a team using each player and his natural tallents and let them play ball.

registerthis
06-26-2006, 10:54 AM
Yep, even with the Griffey having a .315 OB% Dunn's game is still beaten on.

Probably because the fact that Junior has an OBP at all means that he's still playing, which is enough for a lot of people.

westofyou
06-26-2006, 11:16 AM
Probably because the fact that Junior has an OBP at all means that he's still playing, which is enough for a lot of people.
Yeah, so true in the midst of the Reds sucking up the planet in the depression the team was lacking any sort of star to entice the fans. So they had to go shopping for one, since the owner was bankrupt he had to find someone to help him out. Over in Cardinal land was Chick Hafney, a man who hit for average and not much else, he also had horrible eyesite. But he was a league star and the Reds cut a deal where the Cardinals "loaned" the Reds the money to but Hafney. Later in the decade they acquired Babe Herman a player who made Dunn look like Pete Rose. Babe found his job so undemanding that the Reds GM cut a deal with him to give him $50 everytime he hustled. Judge Landis didn't care for that deal at all. But ya gott have a star to get in teh casual fans.

Griffey outflanks these two guys career wise, but he is 36, decline is natural (right Mr Bonds?)

I just hope that it never gets ridiculous, ala Larkin.

LoganBuck
06-26-2006, 01:17 PM
Yep, even with the Griffey having a .315 OB% Dunn's game is still beaten on.

Kinda sad eh?

How would you find Jr's numbers with Aurillia hitting behind him, and those when anybody else does. Seems to me like Narron is doing Jr a great disfavor in letting a player like Aurillia continue to bat cleanup.

RANDY IN INDY
06-26-2006, 02:34 PM
How would you find Jr's numbers with Aurillia hitting behind him, and those when anybody else does. Seems to me like Narron is doing Jr a great disfavor in letting a player like Aurillia continue to bat cleanup.

That might be a legitimate gripe, to some, if Griffey's name was spelled "D-U-N-N".

westofyou
06-26-2006, 02:40 PM
That might be a legitimate gripe, to some, if Griffey's name was spelled "D-U-N-N".
How does it effect his OB%? You'd think he'd have an increased one due to the placement of RH out maker Rich Aurilia.

Instead Junior has been doing a lot of first ball swinging and has been walking less then prior years.

Let's forget that Adam Dunn is on the Reds and ponder this question? When should we worry about that OB% and what should they do about it?

RANDY IN INDY
06-26-2006, 02:42 PM
I'm just saying that Griffey doesn't seem to have nearly as many apologists as Dunn. Maybe that's just me.

edabbs44
06-26-2006, 02:50 PM
How does it effect his OB%? You'd think he'd have an increased one due to the placement of RH out maker Rich Aurilia.

Instead Junior has been doing a lot of first ball swinging and has been walking less then prior years.

Let's forget that Adam Dunn is on the Reds and ponder this question? When should we worry about that OB% and what should they do about it?
He should be dropped to the 5 hole immediately. He's not a 3 hitter anymore. Just like he's not a GG CFer anymore.

westofyou
06-26-2006, 02:50 PM
I'm just saying that Griffey doesn't seem to have nearly as many apologists as Dunn. Maybe that's just me.
Who could apologoze for a .315 On base percentage? If Dunn had that I doubt all the "apologists" wouldn't complain about it. As it stands now, his batting average sucks and drags his down. Mostly (IMO) because he's seems to be aggressive to beat both his slump and the shift with one swing. But he does lead the team in Runs. HR's and RBI's and that I can't apologize for.

Now what's wrong with Griffey?

flyer85
06-26-2006, 03:29 PM
Now what's wrong with Griffey?36 with bad wheels. His star still shines bright on occasion, just not as often as it used to.

RANDY IN INDY
06-26-2006, 03:33 PM
36 with bad wheels. His star still shines bright on occasion, just not as often as it used to.

Agreed

KronoRed
06-26-2006, 04:06 PM
I'm just saying that Griffey doesn't seem to have nearly as many apologists as Dunn. Maybe that's just me.
He doesn't need as many when everything that goes wrong with this team is Dunn's fault ;)

A few years ago everyone was against JR.

registerthis
06-26-2006, 04:08 PM
A few years ago everyone was against JR.

And i think that was because people expected Junior to carry this team to pennant after pennant, and when he didn't, they turned on him--going so far as to boo him when he got injured.

I think it's largely the same with Dunn. With his skills and potential, I think fans expect a lot out of him. And when he doesn't deliver to the fans' specifications, he gets slammed.

Ltlabner
06-26-2006, 04:12 PM
I think it's largely the same with Dunn. With his skills and potential, I think fans expect a lot out of him. And when he doesn't deliver to the fans' specifications, he gets slammed.

In addition to this, those specfications are often based on perceptions. Specifically, he's big and hit's HR's, therefore he should hit X number of HR's Y numbers of RBI's and Z number of Hits. And if he doesn't...look out. They don't take the time to really think about what he contributes to the team. Yes, he's slumping now. No, he's not perfect and untouchable. He is, however, a very productive member of the offense over the past few years.

Raisor
06-26-2006, 04:31 PM
Are we really having a "he's got a bad batting average" with RISP argument again?

873 OPS w/RISP.

Sweet sassy mollassy

Heath
06-26-2006, 04:37 PM
Are we really having a "he's got a bad batting average" with RISP argument again?

873 OPS w/RISP.

Sweet sassy mollassy


Raisor, don't get the facts confused with a good story.

BRM
06-26-2006, 04:40 PM
Are we really having a "he's got a bad batting average" with RISP argument again?

873 OPS w/RISP.

Sweet sassy mollassy

Yeah, but that's due to his large number of "soft" walks...:evil:

oregonred
06-26-2006, 06:05 PM
Yep, even with the Griffey having a .315 OB% Dunn's game is still beaten on.

Kinda sad eh?

I've been posting some occassional notes to the game threads about KGJ's slide since the 8 game winning streak, but most of the commentary in response seems to be about how plug-in guys making 1/10th his salary are more the problem (Hatt, Whipping Boy RA, etc.)

KGL, Dunn and Kearns have all been slumping badly since the Cards series (fortunately Dunn/KGJ broke through yesterday for a much needed series win). It's amazing the Reds are still only two out given how little they've gotten from that trio since ~June 6th. If they wake up soon it could get fun.

I am a huge Dunn supporter, but given his rapid salary escalation and his trending OBP drop this season along with his overall RISP numbers over the last few years looking less glorious as the AB's pile up (good, but not great) it's a bit worrisome...

Dunn and KGJ make up almost 30% of the salary for the team. Eric Milton at 15%. Add Larue/Wilson/Womack/etc. and you've got about 60% of the 2006 payroll contributing either decent but no longer great value (Dunn) mediocre value (Milton/KGJ) or zero value (Larue/Wilson/Womack). Reasonable criticism of the high payroll guys is more than justified.

LoganBuck
06-26-2006, 10:36 PM
How does it effect his OB%? You'd think he'd have an increased one due to the placement of RH out maker Rich Aurilia.

Instead Junior has been doing a lot of first ball swinging and has been walking less then prior years.

Let's forget that Adam Dunn is on the Reds and ponder this question? When should we worry about that OB% and what should they do about it?

I guess it just seems to me that Griffey has been less selective and swinging at too many pitches recently. Am I out of line here or is he just trying to make something happen because Mr Professional At Bat is next?

Jpup
06-27-2006, 06:45 AM
I guess it just seems to me that Griffey has been less selective and swinging at too many pitches recently. Am I out of line here or is he just trying to make something happen because Mr Professional At Bat is next?

His bat seems kind of slow to me. I thought that last year too and then he took off.

westofyou
06-27-2006, 10:27 AM
I guess it just seems to me that Griffey has been less selective and swinging at too many pitches recently. Am I out of line here or is he just trying to make something happen because Mr Professional At Bat is next?
.179/.200/.357/.557 on 0-0 counts.

I've seen a lot of first pitch swinging from Griffey this year, that's a tool he has used to boost his game his whole career, however it's dragging him down so far this season.

LoganBuck
06-27-2006, 11:41 AM
.179/.200/.357/.557 on 0-0 counts.



ouch!

KronoRed
06-27-2006, 03:36 PM
Those are some ugly numbers.

Well back to blaming Dunn ;)

TC81190
06-27-2006, 03:36 PM
Yep, even with the Griffey having a .315 OB% Dunn's game is still beaten on.

Kinda sad eh?

And yet he only has 4 less RBI in 70 less ABs. Imagine that.

westofyou
06-27-2006, 03:50 PM
And yet he only has 4 less RBI in 70 less ABs. Imagine that.
And 30 less runs scored, even sadder.

TC81190
06-27-2006, 03:53 PM
And 30 less runs scored, even sadder.

Jr.'s fault Dunn can't drive him in?

westofyou
06-27-2006, 04:12 PM
Jr.'s fault Dunn can't drive him in?
Dunn's fault Junior's not on when he comes up?

TC81190
06-27-2006, 04:16 PM
Dunn's fault Junior's not on when he comes up?

Even if he was, it wouldn't matter, as we've seen what happens to Dunn when runners are on.

pedro
06-27-2006, 05:27 PM
Jr.'s fault Dunn can't drive him in?

no one can drive you in if you're not on base.

BRM
06-27-2006, 05:33 PM
Even if he was, it wouldn't matter, as we've seen what happens to Dunn when runners are on.

Draws alot of walks, slugs .476 and drives in a run every 3.5 at-bats?