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Matt700wlw
06-28-2006, 02:34 PM
Let's say Eric Milton continues to do what he has done the past couple of starts for the next couple of starts.....not get it done.

DL him for 15 days and bring up Homer Bailey for 3 starts.

If he does the job, you put Milton in the bullpen and ride Homer Bailey.

If he doesn't, you send him back down and put Milton back in his rotation spot, unless of course, a trade is made to bring in another starter, or whatever.



Just a thought. Play with it...tweak it....run it into the ground.... :D

TOBTTReds
06-28-2006, 02:37 PM
I dont like it. He is on a roll right now, we need him to come back down to norms, or continue to go nuts like this to bring him up. Say he comes up and gets blasted. His confidence is shot. Can't do it then just send him down. I think when we bring him up the first time, it is for good.

pedro
06-28-2006, 02:40 PM
On the surface it seems tempting but I don't think it's a very good idea.

dabvu2498
06-28-2006, 02:42 PM
Let's say Eric Milton continues to do what he has done the past couple of starts for the next couple of starts.....not get it done.

DL him for 15 days and bring up Homer Bailey for 3 starts.

If he does the job, you put Milton in the bullpen and ride Homer Bailey.

If he doesn't, you send him back down and put Milton back in his rotation spot, unless of course, a trade is made to bring in another starter, or whatever.



Just a thought. Play with it...
I see too many potential negatives to outweight the potential positives.

1.) He fails -- ruins self-confidence, fan's, management's confidence in him. AND starts his arbitration clock at 20 y.o.

2.) He succeeds -- gives "fools gold" performance of a 20 year old who is not yet ready then comes back down to earth in the time period in which he should be in AA or AAA (Think Ryan Wagner here) AND starts his arbitration clock at 20 y.o.

3.) He succeeds and turns into a bonafide MLB pitcher AND starts his arbitration clock at 20 y.o.

I, for one, am not that desperate... yet.

Matt700wlw
06-28-2006, 02:44 PM
I'm a dummy :D

RedsManRick
06-28-2006, 03:21 PM
Ryan Wagner, closer of the future..... err...

crazybob60
06-28-2006, 03:29 PM
I dont like it. He is on a roll right now, we need him to come back down to norms, or continue to go nuts like this to bring him up. Say he comes up and gets blasted. His confidence is shot. Can't do it then just send him down. I think when we bring him up the first time, it is for good.

my thoughts exactly and that is why the angels are not the smartest right now in dealing with the Jered Weaver situation, he dominated and should have stayed up....that is the only likely comparison I can think of right off the top o my head.

Matt700wlw
06-28-2006, 03:29 PM
Ryan Wagner, closer of the future..... err...

He didn't get this much time in the minors.....

...not sure if that means anything, but I'm just sayin' :D

dfs
06-28-2006, 03:38 PM
He didn't get this much time in the minors.....


That's right he had several years of school. Wagner was older when drafted than Bailey is right now.

Sea Ray
06-28-2006, 03:39 PM
I think when Homer is brought up he should be eased into the major leagues in middle relief. This is how the Reds used Jose Rijo after acquiring him from Oakland and how Houston used Roy Oswalt, just to name a couple. This protects him from getting creamed and God knows we need relievers right now. I can't see management stomaching an $8mill middle reliever either.

Matt700wlw
06-28-2006, 03:41 PM
That's right he had several years of school. Wagner was older when drafted than Bailey is right now.


I'm on a roll in this thread :bang:

RedsManRick
06-28-2006, 03:46 PM
I actually agree with the suggested timetable. I'm just saying that you don't want to do any of this with blinders on. As soon as MLB hitters realized Wagner couldn't reliably throw the slider for a strike, they just sat on his fastball. Homer has looked great, but let's make sure he's proving, if not improving himself, along the way. He needs to be challenged to continue to develop, but you don't want to start his arb clock and then realize he's got a major hole or two.

redsfanmia
06-28-2006, 03:48 PM
If Bailey is as good as advertised then I see nothing wrong with calling him up for a spot start. One shelling in the Majors is not going to "ruin" the guys confidence. If he throws 96 then he can throw 96 in the majors. I dont know his phyche but Doc Gooden was pretty good at 20 and so was Kerry Wood call him up lets see this kid. If Bailey can help us win now then call him up dont worry about starting the abritration clock, thats loser/small market mentality.

RedLegSuperStar
06-28-2006, 04:22 PM
Let's say Eric Milton continues to do what he has done the past couple of starts for the next couple of starts.....not get it done.

DL him for 15 days and bring up Homer Bailey for 3 starts.

If he does the job, you put Milton in the bullpen and ride Homer Bailey.

If he doesn't, you send him back down and put Milton back in his rotation spot, unless of course, a trade is made to bring in another starter, or whatever.



Just a thought. Play with it...tweak it....run it into the ground.... :D

The thing though is the Reds are 1.5 back of the Cards and lead the Wildcard. Do you take a gamble on Bailey who yes has pitched real well in the minors at the big league level or do you stay with Milton who has pitched better this year compared to last year. Milton will pitch his next start at home against the Indians and then on the road in Atlanta (Home: 5.73 ERA Away: 4.40 ERA). I just don't know if you demote Milton to the pen and bring up Bailey. I think Homer will get his shot when the roster increases later this year but till then I think they are just going to see how he pitches through the minors. If Milton does faulter I would DL him but bring up Dumatrait.

RedsManRick
06-28-2006, 04:27 PM
If Bailey is as good as advertised then I see nothing wrong with calling him up for a spot start. One shelling in the Majors is not going to "ruin" the guys confidence. If he throws 96 then he can throw 96 in the majors. I dont know his phyche but Doc Gooden was pretty good at 20 and so was Kerry Wood call him up lets see this kid. If Bailey can help us win now then call him up dont worry about starting the abritration clock, thats loser/small market mentality.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/R/Brian-Reith.shtml

Pitching is more than just throwing 96 mph.

StillFunkyB
06-28-2006, 04:31 PM
Didn't Dontrelle jump right from AA to the Bigs?

Matt700wlw
06-28-2006, 04:32 PM
Didn't Dontrelle jump right from AA to the Bigs?

It's not uncommon.

Danny Serafini
06-28-2006, 04:52 PM
I don't see the need to burn up one of his options by giving him a spot start or two and then sending him down.

flyer85
06-28-2006, 04:53 PM
I don't see the need to burn up one of his options by giving him a spot start or two and then sending him down.Options will be much less of an issue than arbitration. If he is any good he will establish himself long before his options run out.

jimbo
06-28-2006, 04:57 PM
Was it beneficial for Sowers to come up that soon to give up the most runs he has given up all year?

It is tempting, but I would rather he stay in the minors the rest of the season. Or, bring him up in September for a few starts to end the season, if the team is out of contention. That will give you some idea if he will be ready next season to start the season with the Reds.

reds44
06-28-2006, 05:01 PM
Was it beneficial for Sowers to come up that soon to give up the most runs he has given up all year?

It is tempting, but I would rather he stay in the minors the rest of the season. Or, bring him up in September for a few starts to end the season, if the team is out of contention. That will give you some idea if he will be ready next season to start the season with the Reds.
Sowers really didn't pitch that bad; he just made 2 mistake pitches to the 2 wrong hitters.

flyer85
06-28-2006, 05:02 PM
Was it beneficial for Sowers to come up that soon to give up the most runs he has given up all year? the real question is did the Indians hurt their chances by giving starts to Johnson that could have went to Sowers?

The question now for the Reds is can they bring up Bailey and help their short term chances without hurting his long term prospects?

RedsBaron
06-28-2006, 05:02 PM
If Bailey is as good as advertised then I see nothing wrong with calling him up for a spot start. One shelling in the Majors is not going to "ruin" the guys confidence. If he throws 96 then he can throw 96 in the majors. I dont know his phyche but Doc Gooden was pretty good at 20 and so was Kerry Wood call him up lets see this kid. If Bailey can help us win now then call him up dont worry about starting the abritration clock, thats loser/small market mentality.
Gooden was pretty well finished as a number one starter by age 26 or so, and Wood has never been able to stay healthy. I saw the Reds do a lot of "riding" young pitchers back in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and as a result Gary Nolan, Wayne Simpson and Don Gullett never realized their potential.

flyer85
06-28-2006, 05:05 PM
Gooden was pretty well finished as a number one starter by age 26 for Gooden it was all downhill after 21. I think allowing him to throw almost 500 innings as a 19 and 20 year old had a lot to do with it.

If the Reds were to bring up Bailey they would need to closely monitor his workload and in general consider him a 6 inning pitcher.

Highlifeman21
06-28-2006, 06:26 PM
Or we could see what market is out there for Homer Bailey, and move him for something that can make an impact much sooner than Mr. Bailey.

I still have him pencilled for the Howington and Gruler route.

TeamBoone
06-28-2006, 06:48 PM
That's a whole lot of pressure on Bailey that I think would be totally unfair. He's not ready to face major league hitters yet.

It's an experiment with failure writeen all over it.... and his confidence would suffer badly. Remember that mental hump people have been talking about on the board? This could become his bump that turns into McKinley.

George Foster
06-28-2006, 07:10 PM
If Bailey is as good as advertised then I see nothing wrong with calling him up for a spot start. One shelling in the Majors is not going to "ruin" the guys confidence. If he throws 96 then he can throw 96 in the majors. I dont know his phyche but Doc Gooden was pretty good at 20 and so was Kerry Wood call him up lets see this kid. If Bailey can help us win now then call him up dont worry about starting the abritration clock, thats loser/small market mentality.

I agree...he's not fine china. If he can't take a good "shelling" because it will shatter his confidence.....he's not major league material.

Raisor
06-28-2006, 08:19 PM
No way do I start the arbritration clock on the guy.

He's had a couple of good months this year. Let's not Brian Reith him.

TeamBoone
06-28-2006, 08:26 PM
I agree...he's not fine china. If he can't take a good "shelling" because it will shatter his confidence.....he's not major league material.

He's waaaay to young and inexperienced to even take that chance. It really could shatter his confidence... probably not one shelling, but perhaps more than one.

And that in no way means he's not major league material.... it means he's too young and inexperienced. When he blows them away consistently at AAA, he'll be confident enough to come up to the bigs and hopefully have a relatively good chance at being successful.

KronoRed
06-29-2006, 01:29 AM
No way, let Bailey dominate AA for a few months

CTA513
06-29-2006, 01:59 AM
No way, let Bailey dominate AA for a few months

Krivisky said tonight that Bailey wont be promoted anymore this year.

Ibleedblue
06-29-2006, 03:00 AM
Krivisky said tonight that Bailey wont be promoted anymore this year.
:thumbup: Krivsky is obviously a guy who knows how to bring a pitcher along.

KronoRed
06-29-2006, 03:03 AM
Just as long as he doesn't listen to Narron and his call him up now plan ;)

Jpup
06-29-2006, 07:17 AM
How about trading him for someone who can help the club right now? That would make too much sense though.

RedLegSuperStar
06-29-2006, 07:22 AM
How about trading him for someone who can help the club right now? That would make too much sense though.

Bad idea.. I think you actually have a homegrown prospect you can hang on to and build a team around. When can we last say that? Sure he hasn't proven himself just yet at the big league level, but he has proven he can pitch so far in the low minors.

Jpup
06-29-2006, 07:24 AM
Bad idea.. I think you actually have a homegrown prospect you can hang on to and build a team around. When can we last say that? Sure he hasn't proven himself just yet at the big league level, but he has proven he can pitch so far in the low minors.

what if you could trade for a guy that is where Bailey "might" be in 2 years?

membengal
06-29-2006, 07:29 AM
Krivisky said tonight that Bailey wont be promoted anymore this year.


Yet another reason to like WK.

RedLegSuperStar
06-29-2006, 07:38 AM
what if you could trade for a guy that is where Bailey "might" be in 2 years?

Unless he is below the age of 25 and a #1 or #2 starter.. nah.. I'll put my money on Bailey.

TeamBoone
06-29-2006, 11:42 AM
How about trading him for someone who can help the club right now? That would make too much sense though.

Personally, I think that's a very foolish proposal. Why trade him now for what would probably amount to a rental when, developed the right way, he'll be able to help the Reds for years in the future.

Reds pitching phenoms are few and far between (if any)... he should be treasured, coddled, and not traded.

Caveat Emperor
06-29-2006, 01:09 PM
I agree...he's not fine china. If he can't take a good "shelling" because it will shatter his confidence.....he's not major league material.

He's also on a strict 90 pitch count in the minors that would likely stay in place when he jumped to the big leagues. That means, even best case scenario, it's 5 or 6 dominant innings from Bailey and then Bullpen-o-Doom for 3-4 innings.

Bringing up Bailey just doesn't make sense for any number of reasons. I don't hold to the strict "he has to dominate at every level before coming up" thinking -- but I also think that spending at least 4-6 months at every level of the minors is a good thing for the kid.

Keep him in Chattanooga for the year, let him pitch with them in the playoffs, and then take him to spring training next year with the big league club and see what happens. That should be the fastest timetable he's on.

dfs
06-29-2006, 01:37 PM
There are a ton of good reasons to keep Bailey in AA. They've been presented. Just for fun lets argue the other way.....

Pretend it's 1999. You've got your choice of calling up Bailey early or playing that playoff game again? Which do you take?

The front office doesn't get to pick and choose the years that the team is competative. The National League is right there ready for the taking. If the reds make a serious run through playoff's due to Homer's contribution right now, they will more than likely be recompensed for starting his arbitration clock early with the playoff money and the added ticket sales in years to come.

Barring a trade for a stud starter, you have to give 12 starts or so to some combination of Joe Mays/Brandon Claussen/Paul Wilson. Eric Milton has been dominant in 1/3 of his starts, made a quality start in another third and been absolutely shelled in the final third. My point is that while the starters have been far better than we could have hoped there is still room for improvement.

The reds have been carrying 12 pitchers for most of the year. The bullpen has been absolutely terrible, but there are several bullpen pitchers who rot while Narron insists on overworking Coffey,Hammond and Weathers.

Why not tandom start Baily in that fifth starter slot? Pitch him 3-4 innings every fifth day? This pitching staff couldn't use that? We don't have to bail out Joe Mays tonight because Homer is gonna do it! What would that mean to the pitchers who are regularly being used in high leverage situations? You get every fifth day off, plus off days, plus those days when Harang or Arroyo throw a complete game.

Bailey gets his feet wet in hopefully low leverage innings. The reds get...40 decent innings where we don't have to run the equivalent of Mike Burns out there. Everybody in the pen gets to breath a bit easier. What's not to like?

Right now Grant Ballfour is really the only right handed bullpen help on the 40 man roster. They could probably get decent bullpen innings out Brad Salmon, but...well that's pretty much it for help with the organization.

Narron is clearly uncomfortable with Gosling and Germano. He want's bullpen guys who can throw strikes. He LIKES Bailey and sometimes that's half the battle.

I'm not saying they have to do it or even that it's the right thing to do, but I do think it's understandable to start thinking in that direction.

TeamBoone
06-29-2006, 02:06 PM
I still say no. The risk is not worth the reward.

vaticanplum
06-29-2006, 02:08 PM
I still say no. The risk is not worth the reward.

Yep, I'm in this camp. And beyond that, even the best possible outcome of this risk (Bailey rules all at the major-league level -- very unlikely, by the way) is no guarantee. We need a more solid team in place before we can justify using him as that one final magical piece, even at his very best.

Ibleedblue
06-29-2006, 02:37 PM
what if you could trade for a guy that is where Bailey "might" be in 2 years?
Because nobody is going to trade a guy that is where Bailey might be in 2 years for where Bailey is now. That makes no sense. And if the Reds have to throw in more to get the deal done, it makes no sense for us, either.

Let's just be patient and let this guy turn into what he will. Let's enjoy the ride of having a pitching phenom for once.

lollipopcurve
06-29-2006, 02:42 PM
We need a more solid team in place before we can justify using him as that one final magical piece, even at his very best.

Agreed. I want to see another above-average established starter in the rotation before Bailey joins the team. The kid has to be at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen to start, with little burden to assume. If he's thrown toward the front of the rotation, and the team does lttle to temper hype and expectations, he's going to crash, and who knows how a young kid like that will bounce back.

Jpup
06-29-2006, 03:05 PM
Because nobody is going to trade a guy that is where Bailey might be in 2 years for where Bailey is now. That makes no sense. And if the Reds have to throw in more to get the deal done, it makes no sense for us, either.

Let's just be patient and let this guy turn into what he will. Let's enjoy the ride of having a pitching phenom for once.

I'm not sure what makes him a "phenom". He's just overpowering guys right now, he will not be able to do that in the majors. Krivsky even said it himself last night, Bailey needs to learn to use his off speed stuff to get batters out. You are not going to throw many fastballs past Albert Pujols before he catches one and hits it in the 2nd deck. Dwight Gooden was a "phenom." Homer Bailey still has a long way to go before we can say that.

Most of you guys are screaming how great this kid is, but yet we haven't even seen him pitch. dont you thing that is a little obsurd?

The Reds would be foolish not to trade him if they can get a package that includes major league ready pitching. Why do tommorrow what you can get done today. There is no promise that Homer Bailey will ever be in anything for the Reds, he could get hurt tommorrow. I sure hope he blows throught the minors and helps the Reds in a year of so, but I would rather not wait if I could get something a little more certain.

HBP
06-29-2006, 03:28 PM
I'm not sure what makes him a "phenom". He's just overpowering guys right now, he will not be able to do that in the majors. Krivsky even said it himself last night, Bailey needs to learn to use his off speed stuff to get batters out. You are not going to throw many fastballs past Albert Pujols before he catches one and hits it in the 2nd deck.
100% agreement right there, until he learns to use the secondary pitches for outs there is no reason to promote him anywhere. That should be the same policy for every pitcher in the organization as well.



The Reds would be foolish not to trade him if they can get a package that includes major league ready pitching. Why do tommorrow what you can get done today. There is no promise that Homer Bailey will ever be in anything for the Reds, he could get hurt tommorrow. I sure hope he blows throught the minors and helps the Reds in a year of so, but I would rather not wait if I could get something a little more certain.
Thats a weak argument IMO, there's no promise that who you trade Bailey for would be worth anything either. Considering Homer's lack of injury history (knock on wood) any player you trade for would be just as much as an injury risk. While I do agree young proven talent would be a great get, teams just aren't looking to deal that type of talent.

jimbo
06-29-2006, 03:40 PM
The Reds would be foolish not to trade him if they can get a package that includes major league ready pitching. Why do tommorrow what you can get done today. There is no promise that Homer Bailey will ever be in anything for the Reds, he could get hurt tommorrow. I sure hope he blows throught the minors and helps the Reds in a year of so, but I would rather not wait if I could get something a little more certain.

I've said it many times, but I for one want this team to become a consistant winner for years to come. Since the Reds cannot compete in the free agent market with the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. etc., it must maintain a strong minor league system and player development program. This minor league system is currently weak when it comes to pitching so I think trading off your best pitching prospect in order to win today hurts the future of the organization. You are correct in that we do not know how Bailey will turn out, but he is the best shot we have right now.

This organization needs stability and consistancy. I don't want a one-year playoff run and then another fall-off because we traded our best pitching prospects away and can't sign the top free agents.

redsfanmia
06-29-2006, 04:08 PM
I still say no. The risk is not worth the reward.
Whats the risk?

vaticanplum
06-29-2006, 04:29 PM
Whats the risk?

Putting too much pressure on him physically and mentally. Using his arm in a way that gets one good season and one good season total from him. (Right now, his pitches are limited, and the mental pressure of the bigs can also affect a pitcher physically because he can get tighter, lose focus, and compensate by overthrowing. I understand Bailey's control has been a problem in the past so he might be prone to this.) Having him give up three home runs to Albert Pujols -- or So Taguchi -- and having to send him back to the minors with that weighing on his mind.

Or, the risk of him being great, then losing him too early to arbitration, putting us to a position even worse than the one where we are right now because we're left with the same half-baked rotation, only with one less great prospect. We don't have all the money in the world to throw around. Arbitration is a huge factor to consider with this team.

redsfanmia
06-29-2006, 06:13 PM
I still think that a few trial starts/relief apperances in the Majors will not do anything but good things for Bailey. Treating him like fine china will do more to hurt him then help him. If he is as good as advertised I am pretty sure that he knows it and acts accordingly. The great ones always know they are great so he should be able to "handle" the pressures of the majors.

Raisor
06-29-2006, 06:30 PM
I still think that a few trial starts/relief apperances in the Majors will not do anything but good things for Bailey. Treating him like fine china will do more to hurt him then help him. If he is as good as advertised I am pretty sure that he knows it and acts accordingly. The great ones always know they are great so he should be able to "handle" the pressures of the majors.


If he turns out to NOT be ready, they've burned an option on him and his arbritration clock starts tic tic ticking.

redsfanmia
06-29-2006, 06:51 PM
If he turns out to NOT be ready, they've burned an option on him and his arbritration clock starts tic tic ticking.
I still say thats loser/small market talk. I think the option thing is moot because I think once he comes up he is here to stay.

Danny Serafini
06-29-2006, 07:23 PM
We all thought Ryan Wagner was up to stay too. Things happen.

KronoRed
06-29-2006, 07:43 PM
But it is something to consider, The Reds are a small market team, Casto isn't going to have a 100 million dollar payroll.

TeamBoone
06-29-2006, 08:01 PM
Homer just turned 20 in May... he's too damned young to bring up at this point! Not to mention inexperienced.

The Reds wouldn't be doing him any favors if they did that. Thank heaven Krivsky is the GM and has the sense not to do it. Plus, he already said he needs to learn another pitch as two won't do it in the majors.

Most anybody knows pitching in AA is not even close to what it's like to pitching in the majors. And he's only been in AA for about 10 days.

This isn't even a sensible conversation.

redsfanmia
06-29-2006, 08:22 PM
Homer just turned 20 in May... he's too damned young to bring up at this point! Not to mention inexperienced.

The Reds wouldn't be doing him any favors if they did that. Thank heaven Krivsky is the GM and has the sense not to do it. Plus, he already said he needs to learn another pitch as two won't do it in the majors.

Most anybody knows pitching in AA is not even close to what it's like to pitching in the majors. And he's only been in AA for about 10 days.

This isn't even a sensible conversation.
I am sure that he could get by with 2 pitches pitching in short relief and as far as being 20 Doc Gooden was 19, Kerry Wood was 20, Gary Nolan was 19, Don Gullet was 20, young kids with mega-talent can pitch at the major league level and be successful.

RedLegSuperStar
06-29-2006, 08:31 PM
I am sure that he could get by with 2 pitches pitching in short relief and as far as being 20 Doc Gooden was 19, Kerry Wood was 20, Gary Nolan was 19, Don Gullet was 20, young kids with mega-talent can pitch at the major league level and be successful.

Felix Hernadez 18, Dontrelle Willis 19

jimbo
06-29-2006, 09:02 PM
I am sure that he could get by with 2 pitches pitching in short relief and as far as being 20 Doc Gooden was 19, Kerry Wood was 20, Gary Nolan was 19, Don Gullet was 20, young kids with mega-talent can pitch at the major league level and be successful.

Kerry Wood can no longer pitch more than 2 games without going on the DL and Gullet's career ended prematurely because of an injury. Again, the reward is not worth the risk.

And I can't see two pitches being enough for any major league pitcher, relief or starting, if you can't change speeds effectively, which Krivsky has stated that Bailey currently cannot. It's not even a sensible option in my eyes and I'm glad it isn't in Krivsky's also.

jimbo
06-29-2006, 09:07 PM
Felix Hernadez 18, Dontrelle Willis 19

Hernandez is also sporting a nice 4.92 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP. How is it benefitting him to be getting hammered in the majors for a losing team?

Willis is just a freak of nature and an exception to the rule. Bailey isn't at the point currently that Willis was when he made his major league debut.

TeamBoone
06-29-2006, 10:15 PM
I am sure that he could get by with 2 pitches pitching in short relief and as far as being 20 Doc Gooden was 19, Kerry Wood was 20, Gary Nolan was 19, Don Gullet was 20, young kids with mega-talent can pitch at the major league level and be successful.

Obviously, Krivsky doesn't agree with you (thank God!).

RedsBaron
06-30-2006, 12:59 PM
I am sure that he could get by with 2 pitches pitching in short relief and as far as being 20 Doc Gooden was 19, Kerry Wood was 20, Gary Nolan was 19, Don Gullet was 20, young kids with mega-talent can pitch at the major league level and be successful.
Gooden, Wood, Nolan and Gullett all developed arm trouble at a young age and were all essentially done as quality pitchers well before age 30.
Bob Feller is just about the only pitcher since the 1920s who came to the majors at age 20 or younger, logged a lot of innings, and still had a HOF career.

princeton
06-30-2006, 01:22 PM
Gooden, Wood, Nolan and Gullett all developed arm trouble at a young age and were all essentially done as quality pitchers well before age 30.

probably more because they were young pitchers, not because they were young major league pitchers.

RedsBaron
06-30-2006, 02:49 PM
probably more because they were young pitchers, not because they were young major league pitchers.
While pitchers tend to be fragile, I attribute much of their arm troubles to being heavily used at a young age. I believe a team is a bit more careful with minor league pitchers, but once a pitcher reaches the majors it is very tempting to try to win today and forget about tomorrow.

dfs
06-30-2006, 03:04 PM
Originally Posted by RedsBaron Bob Feller is just about the only pitcher since the 1920s who came to the majors at age 20 or younger, logged a lot of innings, and still had a HOF career.

Except for Eckersly(186 innings at 20)
or Catfish(133 at 19).
some guy named Drysdale(99 at 19)
dude named Palmer (92 at 19)

I guess it depends on your definition of lots of innings, but nobody is asking Homer to throw 280 innings. What would 40 good innings mean to Jerry Narron's usage of that bullpen right now? How much better would that make the rest of the bullpen weighed against how much harm it would do Bailey?

Many of the other post war hall of fame pitcher's were in the majors at 21. It didn't seem to kill them.

You can point at Rijo, Fernando, Doc G and others and suggest that it always causes injury, but you would be foolish to do so. There's no sure guarantee that says Fernando would have had a BETTER career if they had waited 3 years to put him in the majors. There are a lot of 23 year old pitchers who still peak early and burn out. It's part and partial for the profession.

By nature when you talk about hall of fame talent, you are talking about freaks of nature. Again...I'm not advocating that the reds bring Homer up right now, but I can certainly understand those who lean in that direction.

MaineRed
06-30-2006, 04:22 PM
Ryan Wager.

redsfanmia
06-30-2006, 04:55 PM
All I am saying is Bailey has got to be better at this point than Weathers, Yan, Belisle, Merker and so on. If he has nasty stuff he can get hitters out. Call him up let him get his feet wet as a set up guy, limit his innings and move on from there.

CTA513
06-30-2006, 04:57 PM
All I am saying is Bailey has got to be better at this point than Weathers, Yan, Belisle, Merker and so on. If he has nasty stuff he can get hitters out. Call him up let him get his feet wet as a set up guy, limit his innings and move on from there.

Krivisky said hes not going to get brought up, so hes probably going to finish out the year in Chattanooga.

jimbo
06-30-2006, 05:20 PM
All I am saying is Bailey has got to be better at this point than Weathers, Yan, Belisle, Merker and so on. If he has nasty stuff he can get hitters out. Call him up let him get his feet wet as a set up guy, limit his innings and move on from there.

Do you really think turning him into a reliever is good for his development? The Reds are trying to develop him into a starting pitcher, it's a whole new game putting him on the Reds today as a setup man, and in my eyes it would set him back as far as a starter.

He may have nasty stuff, but from all indications he has only two pitches and is not very good at changing speeds. That isn't going to make it in any kind of pitching role in the majors.

Big Daddy P
06-30-2006, 05:31 PM
Are you guys high? Leave this young man alone. He just went into AA Ball! Let's not take a chance on screwing up one of the 1st real pitching prospects we've had for what seems like forever!

Krivsky said no way he's coming up this year. It's a bad idea and a moot point!

Krusty
06-30-2006, 05:56 PM
Are you guys high? Leave this young man alone. He just went into AA Ball! Let's not take a chance on screwing up one of the 1st real pitching prospects we've had for what seems like forever!

Krivsky said no way he's coming up this year. It's a bad idea and a moot point!

Amen brother or sister.

TeamBoone
06-30-2006, 07:15 PM
All I am saying is Bailey has got to be better at this point than Weathers, Yan, Belisle, Merker and so on. If he has nasty stuff he can get hitters out. Call him up let him get his feet wet as a set up guy, limit his innings and move on from there.

He may be better but that doesn't mean he's ready to come to the big leagues yet. He shouldn't be learning the ropes, including new pitches, at the major league level. That's what the minors are for... he's just too young and inexperienced. Even "getting his feet wet" could lead to defeat at that level... and that could hurt his confidence big time. Big league hitters vs minor league hitters... that's a whole new ballgame.

It would be one of the worst moves the Reds could possibly make, which is why they're not... they know what they're doing.

redsfanmia
06-30-2006, 07:35 PM
[QUOTE=jimbo]Do you really think turning him into a reliever is good for his development? The Reds are trying to develop him into a starting pitcher, it's a whole new game putting him on the Reds today as a setup man, and in my eyes it would set him back as far as a starter.

Didnt seem to hurt the delopment of Mario Soto or Jose Rijo much. My whole point is if the Reds are not going to make any moves to acquire competant bull pen arms then they should call up their best arms to atlest attempt to solidify their bullpen. Getting knocked around as a young kid hasnt hurt many great pitchers by the way.

IslandRed
06-30-2006, 07:53 PM
Didnt seem to hurt the development of Mario Soto or Jose Rijo much.

Didn't necessarily help, either. They might have come up to the big leagues at 19 or 20, but they didn't become good big-league pitchers until they were 23.

I think Homer Bailey is going to be a terrific big-league starter, but right this minute? He's just a guy with a lot of potential who hasn't proven by a long shot that he's ready to consistently get big-league hitters out.

redsfanmia
06-30-2006, 07:56 PM
I was wondering this about Homer Bailey....will DanO get the credit for drafting this kid and will it ultimately be his legacy?

BoydsOfSummer
06-30-2006, 08:48 PM
I don't want to see him up until 2008.

RedsBaron
07-01-2006, 08:34 AM
Except for Eckersly(186 innings at 20)
or Catfish(133 at 19).
some guy named Drysdale(99 at 19)
dude named Palmer (92 at 19)


Palmer missed nearly two full seasons at ages 21-22 because of arm trouble, but he was one of the few exceptions who was able to come back to full effectiveness later on.
Hunter and Drysdale did have long careers, though both pitchers faded badly at around age 32--still, they had long, HOF careers.
Eckersley was largely unique, though John Smoltz has somewhat duplicated his career path.
There are exceptions to virtually every rule, but the odds of a starting pitcher having a long productive career increase if he is not overworked before about age 25, and the odds of a pitcher not being overworked are better if he is not pitching in the majors, where the pressure is much greater to win today and forget about tomorrow.

redsfanmia
07-02-2006, 06:10 PM
What are Homer's stats in AA? How many innings of shut out ball? Call him up he is ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CTA513
07-02-2006, 06:17 PM
What are Homer's stats in AA? How many innings of shut out ball? Call him up he is ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What happens if he gets called up and gets smacked around hard in the majors?

jimbo
07-02-2006, 06:19 PM
What makes kicking butt in AA equal to being effective in the major leagues?

redsfanmia
07-02-2006, 06:55 PM
What makes kicking butt in AA equal to being effective in the major leagues?


He is dominating his competetion and that means he is ready for a promotion. As far as him getting batted around in the majors, I am sure he has been batted around before so I am sure hes ego can handle it. I think that he can get major league batters out now and barring a trade he is our best arm and thus our best chance at the post season.

StillFunkyB
07-02-2006, 07:04 PM
I flipped on the post game on my way into Columbus this evening and was listening to TJ. Please, don't ask why, because I have no idea why I put myself through such misery with him and that other bafoon at WLW, anyhow he was talking about bringing up Bailey, and how it would help the pen.

Excuse me, but how does bringing up the Reds ONLY REAL STARTING pitching prospect at the age of 20 help out a team in the hunt for a playoff spot with problems in the bullpen.

I just don't get it.

Oh, and Matt, do people at the station really think these guys like TJ, and the Bafoon know anything about the game? (You don't have to answer) :)

jimbo
07-02-2006, 07:10 PM
He is dominating his competetion and that means he is ready for a promotion. As far as him getting batted around in the majors, I am sure he has been batted around before so I am sure hes ego can handle it. I think that he can get major league batters out now and barring a trade he is our best arm and thus our best chance at the post season.

He may be dominating in AA, but the difference between AA hitters and major league hitters is not even describable. I can't understand the thinking that because he is dominating in AA ball that he can get major league batters out now. He may be ready for promotion, but to AAA.

toledodan
07-02-2006, 07:25 PM
He may be dominating in AA, but the difference between AA hitters and major league hitters is not even describable. I can't understand the thinking that because he is dominating in AA ball that he can get major league batters out now. He may be ready for promotion, but to AAA.


alot of clubs move pitchers from AA to the majors. atlanta has done it several times. while i really would hate to rush him its not unheard of. its in his best intrest to stay at AA for the rest of the season. if for some reason they do bring him up i hope they start him out in the bullpen first and let him work his way into the rotation. it worked out real well for that kid from the twins.

jimbo
07-02-2006, 07:33 PM
I don't disagree that bringing up pitchers straight from AA is something that some clubs do. Some here are implying though that since he is dominating in AA that he will do the same in the majors. That's what I disagree with. It isn't as simple as that.

Go Flyers!!:)

Outshined_One
07-02-2006, 07:37 PM
Hooray for copy-paste!


This is a really dangerous proposition for the Reds and Homer.

First off, Dontrelle Willis' case is a really rare one. When the Marlins called him up, he had only made 6 starts at AA that season (with some solid numbers). However, one fact that should be taken into account is the fact that, in the previous season, he made only 5 starts in High A. When the Marlins called him up, he had only accumulated 66.1 IP above Low A. For a guy following his developmental track, that is usually a really bad proposition.

Yet, it worked out incredibly well for the Marlins. Willis and Cabrera (who was a midseason callup from AA, where he was handling the league quite well) were two of the big reasons why they won the World Series this year. They're two of the top young players in baseball today and will be highly sought-after during the trade deadline and (if they're still available) during this upcoming offseason.

Here's the problem. There is a really good reason why the majority of teams do not call up guys who have limited experience and success at AA. These guys are still unfinished products. They need to continue to make the necessary adjustments to the more advanced hitting they will face. Some guys can blaze through the league with little problem, others need time and coaching...and still others flame out. While Homer has done very well in his first two starts, it remains to be seen if he can keep this up. Giving the guy another month to make that decision seems like a risky proposition, even if it is for limited bullpen duty.

Here's the other problem. Some people may disagree with my sentiments on this issue, but I think it's intuitive and helpful for minor leaguers.

There is something to be said for helping build up a guy's confidence and endurance over the course of a season. Homer's basic line last season at Dayton was 103 IP, 4.43 ERA, 5 HR, and 125/62 K/BB. Good overall numbers, all things considered. This season, between High A and AA, he's at 82.2 IP, 2.85 ERA, 6 HR, and 92/24 K/BB. That's a significant step up. He will almost definitely pitch more innings this year than the total amount in his professional career before this year (116 IP). He will likely reach a number of firsts this year.

Willis, on the other hand, already had built up a good history of success and endurance in his previous minor league seasons. He pitched 157.2 innings in 2002 and showed little in the way of slowing down at season's end. Between those two stops, he totaled a 1.83 ERA, 5 HR, and 128/24 K/BB along with those IP numbers. The Marlins already knew he could be counted on to pitch those innings without much in the way of worrying about it since he had already proven he could pitch that much without much, if any, ill effects.

Comparing those two, would the Reds really want to bring Homer up to the bullpen where it would be harder to monitor his pitch counts and give him regular usage? Also, it could be potentially troubling for him in terms of his confidence. Maybe he has great stuff for AA, but what about the majors? It could be an utter disaster if the Reds brought him up and he proceeded to flop, especially in the midst of a playoff race.

Keep in mind the different situations that you're talking about here. When the Marlins called up Willis, everyone thought they were toast. McKeon was supposed to be an interim manager. The young guys were called up because the front office decided it would be best to throw them into the fire and see what they were made of. At first, there was no pressure on these guys because everyone thought they were going to finish under .500 and no one would care. However, with the success they had, things turned out much, much differently than what almost anyone expected.

With the Reds, Bailey would be coming into a pressure situation. The Reds' bullpen is already a mess. Would it be fair for the Reds to call up their top prospect and put that kind of pressure on him, intentional or not? If he screws up, then the fans and media will turn against him (and the front office!), he loses confidence in his ability to get guys out, and it basically turns out to be a debacle. If he succeeds, the temptation to make him the go-to guy in the first season he's ever thrown more than 103 innings would be problematic. Bullpen work involves less innings, but it also involves throwing harder than starting due to endurance. Those kinds of situations can lead to really bad arm injuries.

So, in essence, if the front office does it, they better be as humanly careful as possible with him.

Unassisted
07-02-2006, 07:49 PM
Even if I only had 3 months to live from today, I wouldn't want to see Homer in a Reds uniform before September... 2007. ;)

It would be foolish to move him up, even to AAA, before he makes two full trips around the Southern League. The second trip around is the key, because that's when all of the hitters have adjusted to what they saw after facing him the first time. That should cover most of the remainder of the season, since the minor league season ends in late August.

Let him master AA and then AAA. All the while, that will be happening under the tutelage of professional coaching and monitoring by the Reds finest sports medicine minds. If he's going to be the anchor of the starting staff for several years once he arrives, I'd like to see the Reds get the most out of those years!

toledodan
07-02-2006, 07:52 PM
Go Flyers!!:)




now why did you have to go and ruin your post like that? :D :beerme:

i like this one better.
GO XAVIER! :)

schroomytunes
07-02-2006, 08:38 PM
let him finish the year at AA, then see if he can make the rotation in 2007.

jimbo
07-02-2006, 08:56 PM
now why did you have to go and ruin your post like that? :D :beerme:

i like this one better.
GO XAVIER! :)

Haha......I recognize your name from a Flyer board. I always enjoy your posts though, you are one of the good xavier posters. :beerme:

toledodan
07-02-2006, 10:47 PM
Haha......I recognize your name from a Flyer board. I always enjoy your posts though, you are one of the good xavier posters. :beerme:



thanks for the kind words!:beerme:

Jr's Boy
07-02-2006, 11:03 PM
Bring him up for one game.

kaldaniels
07-02-2006, 11:11 PM
Bring him up for one game.

Now I am one hates the phrase "but that will start his arbitration clock!", however you don't start that clock for only one game...when he is called up, the plan needs to be to leave him up.

Henry Clay
07-03-2006, 01:19 AM
Gooden was pretty well finished as a number one starter by age 26 or so, and Wood has never been able to stay healthy. I saw the Reds do a lot of "riding" young pitchers back in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and as a result Gary Nolan, Wayne Simpson and Don Gullett never realized their potential.

I'm not sure how this cuts. If a pitcher is going to blow out or fade by his mid to late 20s, and he can handle pitching in the majors now, I say get what you can out of him now. The pitcher would probably agree. I was thinking of similar examples to the ones cited in the post. Gullett was young, something like 24, when the Reds were in the 1975 WS. He had won 80 games, lost 40, had the best winning percentage in the league per the WS broadcast. He debuted at 19. At 20, he won 16 games. By the time he was 22, he had pitched in 2 WS. He was a tested veteran by 1975. Is it better to let a young phenom spend his stuff in the minors or get experience in the majors? Good question. For Detroit, starting young pitchers with a lack of success didn't really seem to hurt those same pitchers now that they have learned how to pitch and the team is winning. Similarly, Francisco Liriano came up with the Twins last year at 21, and it sure hasn't hurt him this year. In terms of Reds memories, I don't think early starts are what ruined so many Reds young pitchers during the Bowden years. I think they were just not very good pitchers.

I would probably give Bailey a chance in a spot start or in relief, maybe later this year or maybe even around the All-Star break to see what the team has in Bailey before making a trade. Such a move would not only give Bailey a chance to shine, but would probably give the whole team a lift by showing that the GM is willing to gamble on this year's team and go for broke. The Marlins were a whole lot worse off in 2003 when Willis was called up and the team started winning.

As for those who have said that pitchers like Dontrelle Willis are special and anomalous for being able to start at 20 and succeed, I agree. If Bailey is similarly special, he will succeed, too. But if Bailey is not special, then I see even less reason to wait. Even Claussen succeeded when called up in a spot start for the Yankees against the Mets. I don't think that experience ruined Claussen. If anything, it showed how a young pitcher, who may have peaked physically by now, actually got some utility out of his young arm and the fact that he hadn't been scouted by the league.

Bailey could be great. He could also blow out his arm in AA or AAA. He could be like the phantoms of past threads about Reds prospects, whether Basham, Gruler, Howington, Kelly, Hall, or some series of other names I can't recall. If he is good, I see no reason to coddle him. The Reds got some utility out of Ryan Wagner when he was good.

If Bailey is the second coming of Nolan Ryan (which I doubt), he will be coming into the league one year older than Ryan was when he arrived. If he is the second coming of Clemens (which I also doubt), he will be arriving one year later, but with more time in the minors. I don't see this as such a huge problem. I doubt Krivsky will pull the trigger on more than a spot start, but if Bailey were called up for a spot start and then converted to set up or something similar to help the team for the remainder of the year, I would only complain if he were somehow worse than what the team has on hand now.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 02:23 PM
Lets just leave him in the minors until he is 28 because that is typically the peak year for pitchers. By then he maybe will have logged enough innings to maybe be able to get major league batters out. We also wouldnt start the arbitration clock and would get the peak years out of him.

This kid is ready to come up now and contribute so lets call him up before he blows his arm out and become yet another never will be Reds pitching prospect.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 03:26 PM
Lets just leave him in the minors until he is 28 because that is typically the peak year for pitchers. By then he maybe will have logged enough innings to maybe be able to get major league batters out.

Nobody is advocating waiting until he is 28. The kids just turned 20 in May. If he had been drafted out of college I might be a little more supportive of bringing him up, but the kids is just two years out of playing high school ball. His arm is can't be seriously ready for the rigors of pitching in the majors.

I am so glad Krivsky and Castellini are of the mind of building a consistant winner on a yearly basis instead of risking the future in order to win today.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 03:38 PM
[QUOTE=jimbo]Nobody is advocating waiting until he is 28. The kids just turned 20 in May. If he had been drafted out of college I might be a little more supportive of bringing him up, but the kids is just two years out of playing high school ball. His arm is can't be seriously ready for the rigors of pitching in the majors.


Honestly what is the difference between pitching in AA and the Majors as far as the "rigors" of pitching. Pitching is pitching no matte where you do it.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 03:51 PM
Honestly what is the difference between pitching in AA and the Majors as far as the "rigors" of pitching. Pitching is pitching no matte where you do it.

The difference between the quality of the hitters is huge. Pitching in a controlled environment will allow his development to progress at the desireable rate. Do you really think pitching in AA is no different than pitching in the majors? This team is in the middle of a playoff hunt, winning would come before his development and arm. While in AA, his development is of top concern. You can't convince me being 20 years old and two years out of high school, that his arm is ready to pitch at the highest level and the innings that will be required of him on a team that is contending for the playoffs.

Krivsky and co. has given me every indication that they know what they are doing. If he and his player development people say Bailey isn't ready, I will take their word for it.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 03:54 PM
I have liked every move Krivsky has made but if he lets this kid stay in AA and the Reds continue to send out Weathers, Merker, Mays, Yan, and Belisle out there day in day out I will lose alot of respect for him. Home boy is ready, lets get him up here.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 03:58 PM
Ok man,

AA=Major Leagues

CTA513
07-03-2006, 03:59 PM
It seems nobody is paying attention to the GM of the Reds when he said Bailey is not being brought up. I guess he doesnt know anything because he said Bailey isnt ready.

:dunno:

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 04:03 PM
Ok man,

AA=Major Leagues
Jimbo, thats not the point I am trying to make. I just think that Homer can get guys out on stuff alone, I am not talking about starting him every fifth day and leaving him out there for 130 pitches. I am saying that Homer would be an upgrade over everyone, save for Coffey, in our bullpen. Homer could be spotted and used in the pen a few days a week and not really throw more pitches than he would starting in the minors. He could also get major league coaching. I just think this treating him with kid gloves thing is getting old and if he is as good as advertised than lets see him.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 04:05 PM
It seems nobody is paying attention to the GM of the Reds when he said Bailey is not being brought up. I guess he doesnt know anything because he said Bailey isnt ready.

:dunno:

Everyone (especially the 10) on Redszone knows more than Krivsky, you should know that by now.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 04:37 PM
I just think this treating him with kid gloves thing is getting old and if he is as good as advertised than lets see him.

How can the Reds be treating him with kid gloves with him only being with the organization for two years? You say he has the stuff to get major leaguers out now, the organization doesn't. They are the ones who see him pitch every 5 days so I will take their word for it.

We'll just agree to disagree. The only benefit of turning him into a reliever for this season is to win now. I want this organization to take a different route.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 05:11 PM
The year picks you, you dont pick the year, if your the Reds you need to do everything to get to the post season.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 05:12 PM
The year picks you, you dont pick the year, if your the Reds you need to do everything to get to the post season.


There are teams that are consistant winners on a yearly basis. I would prefer that over a playoff team this year followed by another stretch of losing.

toledodan
07-03-2006, 05:17 PM
There are teams that are consistant winners on a yearly basis. I would prefer that over a playoff team this year followed by another stretch of losing.


jimbo while i agree with you on that those teams have money or a deep talented minor league system. the reds have neither.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 05:18 PM
There are teams that are consistant winners on a yearly basis. I would prefer that over a playoff team this year followed by another stretch of losing.
Would you not like to make the playoffs one year? Its been sisnce 95 I am ready I think we should go for it.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 05:24 PM
jimbo while i agree with you on that those teams have money or a deep talented minor league system. the reds have neither.

Exactly, and that's why this organization needs to maintain a strong minor league system. Trading away top prospects or bringing them up before they are ready in order to win today will not lead to consistancy. I can see this organization's minor league system improving dramatically in the next 5 years because Krivsky is making it a priority, bringingly along Bailey slowly being an example of that.

jimbo
07-03-2006, 05:29 PM
Would you not like to make the playoffs one year? Its been sisnce 95 I am ready I think we should go for it.

Not if it means another playoff appearance followed by 11 more non-appearances.

toledodan
07-03-2006, 05:45 PM
the only problem is we may never have enough top prospects to make a difference. florida and oakland were able to load up the farm system by trading away big time players. we would have to gut this team in order to get a few prospects. we need either go for it now or the FO will need to spend some big time money in the winter. i'm tired of waiting for a winner myself esp. watching the tigers perform so well this season!:bang:

Jr's Boy
07-03-2006, 06:19 PM
I'm sure Narron's chomping at the bit to get him up here.

Matt700wlw
07-03-2006, 06:33 PM
I'm sure Narron's chomping at the bit to get him up here.

If it were his decision, Homer Bailey would be up here.

jimbo
07-04-2006, 12:48 AM
the only problem is we may never have enough top prospects to make a difference. florida and oakland were able to load up the farm system by trading away big time players. we would have to gut this team in order to get a few prospects. we need either go for it now or the FO will need to spend some big time money in the winter. i'm tired of waiting for a winner myself esp. watching the tigers perform so well this season!:bang:

In my opinion, the Tigers have set themselves up for years to come because they have not traded away their top prospects and have used patience with them. I don't think this is a one-year sensation with them, they are going to be strong for several years to come.

redsfanmia
07-04-2006, 06:45 AM
In my opinion, the Tigers have set themselves up for years to come because they have not traded away their top prospects and have used patience with them. I don't think this is a one-year sensation with them, they are going to be strong for several years to come.
They also called up all of their young pitchers and let them learn in the Majors.

blumj
07-04-2006, 08:59 AM
They also called up all of their young pitchers and let them learn in the Majors.
The Tigers' young pitchers all had several years of college and/or pro experience first, and they're all at least 22 years old. When they let Bonderman learn in the majors without that kind of experience behind him, they weren't remotely close to being a competitive team.

RedlegJake
07-04-2006, 09:15 AM
You don't have to trade to get prospects. Just draft correctly. We've already seen that if the Reds had drafted correctly and paid the market level for those drafted in the past Kazmir and Sowers would be in the rotation now and no one would be talking about promoting Bailey but with him and Wood in the minors we'd be talking about how great our future looked. Instead we have Gruler and because they wouldn't pay what Sowers wanted to skip college, nobody. In fact the Reds had several years of abysmal drafts with the lone exception of the Dunn and Kearns year. Let Krivsky have a couple years drafting before we judge him. If he is going to be a great GM he'll build a farm system AND keep a good product on the field at the same time. When the farm system matures the years of having to go with played out veterans will finally be over - but no amount of rushing is going to fix that. The Reds have a new owner and a new GM - and I'd rather they fix it right for the long haul than toss everything into a one year push on a team that is still pretty flawed.

IslandRed
07-04-2006, 09:45 AM
The Tigers' young pitchers all had several years of college and/or pro experience first, and they're all at least 22 years old. When they let Bonderman learn in the majors without that kind of experience behind him, they weren't remotely close to being a competitive team.

Yeah, Bonderman's not a real good argument for bringing up Bailey either. He was promoted to the majors at age 20 straight from High-A. He got shelled in his rookie year, pitching about like you'd expect from someone who should have been in Double-A. Next year, a little better but he pitched like someone who should have been in Triple-A. Last year, he still wasn't quite league-average but at least he looked like a major-league pitcher. Now, finally, at age 23, he's pitching pretty well.

There are plenty of guys who got the call at Homer Bailey's age. But the argument for calling him up is that we need help RIGHT NOW. To justify that with historical comps, it's not good enough to find guys who got to the show at age 20; we're looking for guys who came up at age 20 and immediately pitched well. And that's a much shorter list.

Reds1
07-04-2006, 10:28 AM
Let's say Eric Milton continues to do what he has done the past couple of starts for the next couple of starts.....not get it done.

DL him for 15 days and bring up Homer Bailey for 3 starts.

If he does the job, you put Milton in the bullpen and ride Homer Bailey.

If he doesn't, you send him back down and put Milton back in his rotation spot, unless of course, a trade is made to bring in another starter, or whatever.



Just a thought. Play with it...tweak it....run it into the ground.... :D


Unfortunately I like Milton better then Mays.

pedro
07-04-2006, 11:54 AM
You don't have to trade to get prospects. Just draft correctly. We've already seen that if the Reds had drafted correctly and paid the market level for those drafted in the past Kazmir and Sowers would be in the rotation now and no one would be talking about promoting Bailey but with him and Wood in the minors we'd be talking about how great our future looked. Instead we have Gruler and because they wouldn't pay what Sowers wanted to skip college, nobody. In fact the Reds had several years of abysmal drafts with the lone exception of the Dunn and Kearns year. Let Krivsky have a couple years drafting before we judge him. If he is going to be a great GM he'll build a farm system AND keep a good product on the field at the same time. When the farm system matures the years of having to go with played out veterans will finally be over - but no amount of rushing is going to fix that. The Reds have a new owner and a new GM - and I'd rather they fix it right for the long haul than toss everything into a one year push on a team that is still pretty flawed.

Sowers was not going to skip college and the Reds knew it. They drafted him so they wouldn't have to pay anyone first round money.

So while the Reds probably could have gotten something useful in that spot, Sowers was never going to be a Red.

RedlegJake
07-04-2006, 12:00 PM
Actually Sowers hinted he would skip college but the money would have to be right. I do agree, though, that the Reds knew that and knew they wouldn't offer what he wanted. They basically punted to avoid first round money, you're right. And it illustrates exactly my point.