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oneupper
06-30-2006, 11:23 PM
A Game Winning Grand Slam, down by 3 runs is known as an "ULTIMATE GRAND SLAM"

This has happened only 21 times in Baseball History, and only 12 with two outs.

This link has the list
(I can't code it).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2002/05/17/ultimate_grand_slams/

Adam Dunn now joins this List as lucky number 13!
First Cincinnati RED...since 1936

flyer85
06-30-2006, 11:37 PM
The only reason he got pitched to was because Jr was batting behind him. Those screwy lineups where Narron separates Dunn and Jr is a big favor to the opponent.

oneupper
06-30-2006, 11:39 PM
The only reason he got pitched to was because Jr was batting behind him. Those screwy lineups where Narron separates Dunn and Jr is a big favor to the opponent.

Ah..but Aurilia loves to have Dunn behind him!

flyer85
06-30-2006, 11:42 PM
Ah..but Aurilia loves to have Dunn behind him!and who wouldn't :D

KronoRed
07-01-2006, 12:51 AM
That's a clutch group of players ;)

Deepred05
07-01-2006, 02:01 AM
Bo Diaz is in that select group, although as a Phillie.......

oneupper
07-01-2006, 08:32 AM
Bo Diaz is in that select group, although as a Phillie.......


Interesting Names...Diaz, Buddy Bell hit one (with Texas). Nasty Boy Norm Charlton gave one up (with Seattle).

There are two that stand out for me: Dick Schofield, who was perhaps one of the worst hitters to ever play (think Dal Maxvill, Mario Mendoza) and hit all of 56 HR in 14 yrs. Career .646 OPS.

The other guy is Roger Freed. Freed was a favorite of mine who would come down and play winter ball in Puerto Rico every year but never really amounted to much in the ML. He hit all of 22 HRs in the Majors. That one was his next to last.

MrCinatit
07-01-2006, 09:43 AM
I remember listening to the Diaz homer. I was following the Phillies at the time because they had most of the Big Red Machine playing for them at the time.
Oh, how I wish I had not been at work last night. It was lovely hearing Marty's call in ESPN...but to hear it live...wow.

Krusty
07-01-2006, 09:51 AM
The beauty of baseball.

Spitball
07-01-2006, 11:37 AM
The only reason he got pitched to was because Jr was batting behind him.

The bases were loaded and they had their closer on the mound. I think they would have pitched to Dunn even with Aurila on deck.

HotCorner
07-01-2006, 02:48 PM
For those that want to "re-live" it

http://700wlw.com/timages/page/media/Dunngamewinninggrandslam.mp3

KronoRed
07-01-2006, 04:06 PM
The bases were loaded and they had their closer on the mound. I think they would have pitched to Dunn even with Aurila on deck.
Maybe..but IMO they would have been more likely to walk him allow a run and get the 3rd out from Rich

Unassisted
07-01-2006, 10:22 PM
In another game recently, someone (was it you, oneupper?) posted the percentage chances that the Reds had to win the game with each at bat. I bet those would be interesting to see for this particular game, too.

oneupper
07-01-2006, 10:28 PM
In another game recently, someone (was it you, oneupper?) posted the percentage chances that the Reds had to win the game with each at bat. I bet those would be interesting to see for this particular game, too.

yep, was me...I'll get them.

I'm using a Dave Studeman's win expectancy spreadsheet instead of the win expectancy finder web page that I use for quick lookups. Results are similar, except that the WEF uses historic data from actual games, while the spreadsheet is based on probability studies. Problem with WEF is that some samples are small for some situations (e.g. down 7 in the ninth).

Here goes:

Bottom of Eighth: 0.5%
Kearns Homers: 1.0%
Phillips Singles: 1.7%
Valentin Singles: 3.5%
Castro Homers: 8.0%
FeLo GO: 5.5%
Dunn Ks: 3.9%
Griffey Doubles: 5.8%
Aurilia GO to end inning: 3.1%

Indians' 9th

Garko LO: 3.5%
Sizemore Doubles: 2.8%
Belliard Singles in Sizemore: 1.4%
Peralta GIDP: 1.7%

Reds 9th

Hatteberg PO: 0.7%
Kearns Single: 1.7%
Kearns SB: 1.9%
Phillips Singles : 4.4%
WP, BP to 2B : 5.7%
Valentin GO: AK Scores: 1.6%
Freel Walks: 4.2%
Freel takes 2B: 4.8%
Felo Walks: 9.0%
Dunn HR: 100%

For those who like WPA (Win Probability Added)...there's a few things that stand out.

Dunn's HR was worth 91% of the win. That, of course, is the maximum one can get for one at bat in a game.

Felo got several times more for his 9th inning walk (4.2%) than AK for his HR (0.5%).

Valentin's GO in the 9th may have plated a run (RBI), but since outs were running out...it reduced Win probability by 4.1%.

Spitball
07-02-2006, 02:24 PM
Maybe..but IMO they would have been more likely to walk him allow a run and get the 3rd out from Rich

Teams just don't put the winning run on base.

Unassisted
07-02-2006, 06:48 PM
Thanks for calculating and posting that 1U. We all know it's amazing to see a win snatched from the jaws of defeat. I think it's even more fun to see it quantified. :thumbup: