Can Adam Bomb Foster's HR Record?

[Guacarock]

With his dramatic, 9th inning, walk-off grand slam against Cleveland on Friday night, Adam Dunn collected his 26th homerun of the season. That puts him precisely on pace to wallop 52 homeruns in '06, matching the Reds' seasonal HR record set by George Foster 29 years ago in 1977. Will Dunn keep at it? Can he match or break Foster's record?

He certainly has a fighting chance. Dunn ended '04 with 46 home runs, and collected 40 last season. In both years, he did just as well the second-half of the season as the first half.

Last year, he hit 20 home runs from April-June and 20 more from July-October. His '04 stats were also remarkably consistent -- 23 HR from April-June and 23 HR from July-October.

Barring an injury, we could be looking at Reds history in the making. And even if the Foster record doesn't fall, the chase is going to keep this summer exciting, whether or not the team can sustain its playoff hopes.

Besides savoring Dunn's individual feats, we also ought to be celebrating just how special our current outfield is as an offensive unit. We've now played 81 games or half the season. All three of our outfielders are on pace to hit 30 home runs. To give you an idea of just how amazing that is, no Reds outfield since the beginning of the franchise has ever boasted three guys who all hit 30 home runs in the same season.

We came tantalizingly close in 1956, when Frank Robinson whacked 38, Wally Post 36 and Gus Bell fell just short of the mark with 29 home runs. The three combined for 113 dingers.

By comparison, our '06 Reds outfielders Dunn, Griffey and Kearns have 58 home runs at the halfway mark, meaning they'll hit 116 if the second half goes as well for them as the first half.

None of us can predict what is yet to come. But based on what we've seen so far in '06, we have more reason to rejoice than to carp. Enjoy the moment. Seasons like this don't come around every decade, not even every quarter-century or more.

[OnBaseMachine]

I this may be the year he finally reaches 50. I'm not sure about 52 - I hope he does and everything - but I would be very pleased if he can "just" reach the 50 home run plateau. That itself would break the Reds franchise record for most homers by a left-handed hitter set by Ted Kluszewski with 49 homers in 1954.

Another franchise record he could break or come close to breaking is Joe Morgan's single season walk record. Morgan walked 132 times in 1975, Dunn is second with 128 in 2002. Adam currently has 64 walks and is on pace for 128 but a couple of two walk games could put him right on track to break the record.

One other thing to keep an eye on: Dunn is one of only two Reds players in Reds franchise history to score 100+ runs, drive in 100+ runs, and walk 100+ times in a season. Joe Morgan is the other player. Only Dunn has accomplished this feat in two consecutive seasons, and watch out because is on pace to do it for the third straight year.

[KronoRed]

He stays in the 2 spot or 3 in front of JR I think he shatters the HR and walk record.

[Deepred05]

He stays in the 2 spot or 3 in front of JR I think he shatters the HR and walk record.
I agree. If Griffey stays healthy he gets the record.

[Johnny Footstool]

Dunn will break Foster's record. Just pick the year -- 2006, 2007, 2008. Maybe all three.

[macro]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

[M2]

Dunn will break Foster's record. Just pick the year -- 2006, 2007, 2008. Maybe all three.

That's what I was thinking too. Though the real interesting single season homer chase in Dunn's career is likely to be as the first non-juiced guy past Maris.

[crazybob60]

I believe he will break it and break it by a couple of homers....probably around 55 to 56 actually.

[UC_Ken]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.
I understand what you mean but you're essentially saying you don't want AD to hit as many home runs as possible. I agree that HR records from pre 1990s have more significance but I'd never want a Red to not hit HRs.

[terminator]

I think he will pass it, primarily because his history tells us there's a good chance that he will raise his batting average 20-30 points overall between now and the end of the season to get to the .250-ish level. For Dunn, more hits means more home runs. Last year he had that monster month (July I think) when he was the NL Player of the Month. We haven't seen that yet this year and that would dramatically escalate his pace toward Foster.

Of course what we would all really like to see is Dunn breaking Foster's RBI record!

[KronoRed]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.
So you want him to have more triples and going home on errors instead? :D

[macro]

I understand what you mean but you're essentially saying you don't want AD to hit as many home runs as possible. I agree that HR records from pre 1990s have more significance but I'd never want a Red to not hit HRs.

Your point is well-taken. My first priority as a Reds fan is to see them win the World Series, and they're going to be much more likely to do it with great pitching than home runs. But hey, if Dunn's 53rd home run of the season puts the Reds in the playoffs, I'll be rootin' for him to do it.


So you want him to have more triples and going home on errors instead?

No, I want him to have more RBI singles and sac flies. Home runs are rally killers. ;) :D

[goreds2]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

I have great respect for Foster's record and he had a great year but the ball was thought to be juiced in 1977. This is from baseballprospectus.com:

Balanced Era (1977–1985). The 1977 season was marked by a sharp increase in offense as a result of the expansion to 26 clubs and a new manufacturer of baseballs. The offensive improvement brought the game back into balance, and the era is remembered for the wide variety of styles that prospered during the period.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4845

[RichRed]

I have great respect for Foster's record and he had a great year but the ball was thought to be juiced in 1977. This is from baseballprospectus.com:

Balanced Era (1977–1985). The 1977 season was marked by a sharp increase in offense as a result of the expansion to 26 clubs and a new manufacturer of baseballs. The offensive improvement brought the game back into balance, and the era is remembered for the wide variety of styles that prospered during the period.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4845

Still, the closest player to Foster's 52 HR's that year was Jeff Burroughs with 41. Just an awesome season by George. And it was another 19 years before anyone matched that 52 mark (McGwire in 1996).

[goreds2]

Still, the closest player to Foster's 52 HR's that year was Jeff Burroughs with 41. Just an awesome season by George.

Yes, I agree it was an awesome season. Marty Brennaman has said it was the best season by a Reds player he has witnessed.

[Handofdeath]

Dunn might very well hit over 52 homers this year. As far as doing for the Reds? Stay tuned.

[TeamBoone]

This probably won't be a popular opinion, but I'm rooting for Foster's record to stand, because of the era and the ballparks he accomplished his 52 in. Home runs are a dime a dozen these days. They weren't in 1977.

I guess I'm just ignorant, because I have no idea what you mean by this.

Why are GF's HRs more prestigeous than AD's? Most of AD's HRs aren't cheap... they're hit well, they're mostly majestic, and usually deep.

And, if they're a dime a dozen these days, how come more players don't have tons of them?

[ThatPitchIsDunn]

I think he's got the end of the year on his side. 13 games at GABP in Sept and 3 in Minute Maid and 3 at Wrigley which - with some wind help - a popout to short will get outta town. I think Dragnet (Dunn-duh-dunn-dunn!) gets the record this year, but it's gonna be short lived. He'll break whatever he hits this year in the next three anyways.

I'll go 56 this year with 58 in 2008. Mark it down; we can all laugh at how wrong I was in October.

[macro]

I guess I'm just ignorant, because I have no idea what you mean by this.

Why are GF's HRs more prestigeous than AD's? Most of AD's HRs aren't cheap... they're hit well, they're mostly majestic, and usually deep.

And, if they're a dime a dozen these days, how come more players don't have tons of them?

The playing fields of many of the National League teams were larger in those days than they are today.

The Houston Astrodome was 340' down the lines, 390' in the power alleys, and 406' to straight-away center field in 1977.

Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia was 330' down lines, 371' in alleys, and 408' center.

Jack Murphy Stadium in SD was 330' down lines, 375' alleys, and 420' center.

Busch Stadium in St Louis was 330'/386'/414'.

Candlestick Park was 335'/397'/410'.

Riverfront was 330'/375'/404', but the wall was 12' high at that time.

I could go on, but you get the picture. By comparison, GAB is only 325 feet down the right field line and 370' in the right field power alley. It's 404' to center. The old, larger fields have been replaced by new, smaller ones.

Now, most of Dunn's home runs aren't cheap, I'll give you that. And it may be that he would have hit as many or close to as many if he'd played in '77 as he's hitting today. We'll never know. But I'll stand by my point that Foster's 52 that season was head-and-shoulders above what any other players were putting up at that time.

At the time Foster hit his 52 in 1977, that was tied for the third-most in a season by a National League player in history!

Scroll through this list (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/HR_leagues.shtml) and you'll see that there were several years in the 70s and 80s when no Major Leaguer hit 40 home runs. The leaders of both leagues were in the 30s. Then look at the numbers of the leaders since the 1990s. That's why I made the comment about HRs being a dime a dozen today. Dunn has 30 homers already this season, but so do four other players. Forty or fifty homers in a season just ain't what it used to be.

[Guacarock]

The playing fields of many of the National League teams were larger in those days than they are today.

The Houston Astrodome was 340' down the lines, 390' in the power alleys, and 406' to straight-away center field in 1977.

Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia was 330' down lines, 371' in alleys, and 408' center.

Jack Murphy Stadium in SD was 330' down lines, 375' alleys, and 420' center.

Busch Stadium in St Louis was 330'/386'/414'.

Candlestick Park was 335'/397'/410'.

Riverfront was 330'/375'/404', but the wall was 12' high at that time.

I could go on, but you get the picture. By comparison, GAB is only 325 feet down the right field line and 370' in the right field power alley. It's 404' to center. The old, larger fields have been replaced by new, smaller ones.

Now, most of Dunn's home runs aren't cheap, I'll give you that. And it may be that he would have hit as many or close to as many if he'd played in '77 as he's hitting today. We'll never know. But I'll stand by my point that Foster's 52 that season was head-and-shoulders above what any other players were putting up at that time.

At the time Foster hit his 52 in 1977, that was tied for the third-most in a season by a National League player in history!

Scroll through this list (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/HR_leagues.shtml) and you'll see that there were several years in the 70s and 80s when no Major Leaguer hit 40 home runs. The leaders of both leagues were in the 30s. Then look at the numbers of the leaders since the 1990s. That's why I made the comment about HRs being a dime a dozen today. Dunn has 30 homers already this season, but so do four other players. Forty or fifty homers in a season just ain't what it used to be.

Correcto mundo. Most modern-day parks are band boxes, not only creating a livelier offense and inflating HR counts, but also making it much more difficult for pitchers to post low ERAs. So today's sultans of swat have it easier than their predecessors, while the reverse is true for pitchers. You have to wonder: What kind of stats would Koufax generate if he was just now coming of age, like Kazmir or Liriano?

Besides smaller ballparks, batters now have an advantage in getting to appear in places like Colorado's Coors Field. With Denver roughly a mile above sea level, the ball carries 10 percent farther there. So, a fly that would travel 400 feet at Shea Stadium will go an extra 40 feet distance in Denver.

All that taken into account, Dunn remains a special player. With his 30 HR so far in '06, he's still on pace to match or barely exceed the Reds record set by Foster some 29 years ago.

With the trade of Kearns, we can forget about possibly seeing the first Reds OF in history where all three everyday guys punched at least 30 HR by season's end. Bummer.

[princeton]

With the trade of Kearns, we can forget about possibly seeing the first Reds OF in history where all three everyday guys punched at least 30 HR by season's end. Bummer.

ah, but Denorfio has his fans here...

BTW, I love that Denorfio has fans, and I'm certainly pulling for him. But if he becomes a good player, then he'll have done it in a very unconventional way, beginning so late. It has happened, but often doesn't.

[westofyou]

And, if they're a dime a dozen these days, how come more players don't have tons of them?


Players with 25 HR's or more 1977

SEASON
1977

HOMERUNS HR
1 George Foster 52
2 Jeff Burroughs 41
T3 Jim Rice 39
T3 Greg Luzinski 39
5 Mike Schmidt 38
T6 Graig Nettles 37
T6 Bobby Bonds 37
T8 Steve Garvey 33
T8 George Scott 33
T10 Reggie Smith 32
T10 Reggie Jackson 32
T12 Gary Carter 31
T12 Johnny Bench 31
T12 Oscar Gamble 31
T12 Jason Thompson 31
T16 Ron Cey 30
T16 Richie Zisk 30
T16 Butch Hobson 30
T16 Dusty Baker 30
T20 Willie McCovey 28
T20 Andre Thornton 28
T20 Larry Hisle 28
T20 Carl Yastrzemski 28
T24 Lee May 27
T24 Eddie Murray 27
T24 Toby Harrah 27
T24 Lee Stanton 27
T24 Bobby Murcer 27
T29 Bill Robinson 26
T29 Carlton Fisk 26
T29 Dave Kingman 26
T32 Eric Soderholm 25
T32 Ellis Valentine 25
T32 Don Baylor 25
T32 Dave Winfield 25
T32 Don Money 25

Players with 25 HR's or more 2005

SEASON
2005

HOMERUNS HR
1 Andruw Jones 51
2 Alex Rodriguez 48
3 David Ortiz 47
4 Derrek Lee 46
5 Manny Ramirez 45
6 Mark Teixeira 43
7 Albert Pujols 41
T8 Adam Dunn 40
T8 Paul Konerko 40
10 Richie Sexson 39
11 Troy Glaus 37
T12 Morgan Ensberg 36
T12 Alfonso Soriano 36
14 Ken Griffey Jr. 35
T15 Cliff Floyd 34
T15 Gary Sheffield 34
T17 Miguel Cabrera 33
T17 Travis Hafner 33
T17 Carlos Delgado 33
T20 Jason Giambi 32
T20 Pat Burrell 32
T20 Jason Bay 32
T20 Carlos Lee 32
T20 Vladimir Guerrero 32
T25 Jermaine Dye 31
T25 Aramis Ramirez 31
27 Tony Clark 30
T28 David Dellucci 29
T28 Jim Edmonds 29
T28 Jeff Kent 29
T31 Vernon Wells 28
T31 Chase Utley 28
T31 Jorge Cantu 28
T34 Melvin Mora 27
T34 Chad Tracy 27
T34 David Wright 27
T34 Eric Chavez 27
T38 Jay Gibbons 26
T38 Miguel Tejada 26
T38 Jason Lane 26
T38 Craig Biggio 26
T42 Preston Wilson 25
T42 Kevin Mench 25
T42 Geoff Jenkins 25
T42 Hank Blalock 25

But Check out 1976 and 78... 1977 is the 70's answer to 1987.



SEASON
1976

HOMERUNS HR
1 Mike Schmidt 38
2 Dave Kingman 37
T3 Rick Monday 32
T3 Graig Nettles 32
5 George Foster 29
T6 Reggie Jackson 27
T6 Joe Morgan 27
T6 Sal Bando 27
T9 George Hendrick 25
T9 Jim Rice 25
T9 Lee May 25

SEASON
1978

HOMERUNS HR
1 Jim Rice 46
2 George Foster 40
3 Greg Luzinski 35
T4 Don Baylor 34
T4 Larry Hisle 34
6 Andre Thornton 33
7 Gorman Thomas 32
T8 Bobby Bonds 31
T8 Rico Carty 31
10 Dave Parker 30
11 Reggie Smith 29
T12 Willie Stargell 28
T12 Dave Kingman 28
T12 Doug DeCinces 28
T15 Reggie Jackson 27
T15 Graig Nettles 27
T15 Eddie Murray 27
T15 Gary Alexander 27
19 Jason Thompson 26
T20 Andre Dawson 25
T20 Lee May 25
T20 Ellis Valentine 25
T20 Jack Clark 25



SEASON
1986

HOMERUNS HR
1 Jesse Barfield 40
2 Mike Schmidt 37
3 Dave Kingman 35
4 Gary Gaetti 34
T5 Rob Deer 33
T5 Jose Canseco 33
T7 Don Mattingly 31
T7 George Bell 31
T7 Dave Parker 31
T7 Glenn Davis 31
T7 Don Baylor 31
T7 Kirby Puckett 31
13 Pete Incaviglia 30
T14 Steve Balboni 29
T14 Kent Hrbek 29
T14 Joe Carter 29
T14 Darrell Evans 29
T14 Dale Murphy 29
T19 Mike Pagliarulo 28
T19 Larry Parrish 28
T19 Kirk Gibson 28
T19 Rickey Henderson 28
T23 Eric Davis 27
T23 Darryl Strawberry 27
T23 Jim Presley 27
T23 Bob Horner 27
T27 Dwight Evans 26
T27 Doug DeCinces 26
T27 Kevin McReynolds 26
T30 Cal Ripken 25
T30 Danny Tartabull 25

SEASON
1987

HOMERUNS HR
T1 Andre Dawson 49
T1 Mark McGwire 49
3 George Bell 47
4 Dale Murphy 44
5 Darryl Strawberry 39
6 Eric Davis 37
7 Howard Johnson 36
T8 Jack Clark 35
T8 Mike Schmidt 35
T8 Will Clark 35
T11 Dwight Evans 34
T11 Kent Hrbek 34
T11 Wally Joyner 34
T11 Danny Tartabull 34
T11 Darrell Evans 34
16 Cory Snyder 33
T17 Larry Parrish 32
T17 Matt Nokes 32
T17 Joe Carter 32
T17 Mike Pagliarulo 32
T17 Tom Brunansky 32
T17 Brook Jacoby 32
T23 Larry Sheets 31
T23 Gary Gaetti 31
T23 Jose Canseco 31
T26 Eddie Murray 30
T26 Ruben Sierra 30
T26 Don Mattingly 30
T29 Brian Downing 29
T29 Kevin McReynolds 29
T29 Alvin Davis 29
T32 Rob Deer 28
T32 Kirby Puckett 28
T32 Alan Trammell 28
T32 Ivan Calderon 28
T32 Juan Samuel 28
T32 Jesse Barfield 28
T38 Cal Ripken 27
T38 Keith Moreland 27
T38 Ken Phelps 27
T38 Pedro Guerrero 27
T38 Pete Incaviglia 27
T38 Dave Winfield 27
T38 Greg Walker 27
T38 Glenn Davis 27
T38 Ozzie Virgil 27
T38 Leon Durham 27
T48 Lloyd Moseby 26
T48 Kal Daniels 26
T48 Tim Wallach 26
T48 Dave Parker 26
T52 Barry Bonds 25
T52 Dale Sveum 25

SEASON
1988

HOMERUNS HR
1 Jose Canseco 42
2 Darryl Strawberry 39
3 Fred McGriff 34
4 Mark McGwire 32
5 Glenn Davis 30
T6 Andres Galarraga 29
T6 Will Clark 29
T8 Eddie Murray 28
T8 Gary Gaetti 28
T10 Joe Carter 27
T10 Kevin McReynolds 27
T10 Jack Clark 27
T13 Eric Davis 26
T13 Cory Snyder 26
T13 Danny Tartabull 26
T16 Kent Hrbek 25
T16 Andy Van Slyke 25
T16 Kirk Gibson 25
T16 Dave Winfield 25
T16 Brian Downing 25
T16 Fred Lynn 25
T16 Bo Jackson 25