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View Full Version : Trade deadline may be too late.



Crosley68
07-03-2006, 12:14 AM
I am usually not an alarmist, but the games we will lose in July because of our bullpen may make our position by July 31 difficult to overcome. I realize that there are less sellers at this time of the season, but overpaying is almost certainly needed now. Perhaps overpaying in salary instead of prospects would be more palatable to the ownership.

Caveat Emperor
07-03-2006, 12:57 AM
I am usually not an alarmist, but the games we will lose in July because of our bullpen may make our position by July 31 difficult to overcome. I realize that there are less sellers at this time of the season, but overpaying is almost certainly needed now. Perhaps overpaying in salary instead of prospects would be more palatable to the ownership.

You've got to be realistic about where the Reds are right now. They're firmly in contention right now, but how many moves do they need to make to get over the hump and into the postseason?

The bullpen is beyond bad -- it's an outright liability at this point. Aside from Todd Coffey, there's nobody out there that can retire hitters on a consistent basis. That's 5 guys (Belisle, Weathers, Mercker, Shackleford, and Standridge) that are completely unreliable and not a one of which has any place on a contending ballclub. In order to even think about getting into the post season, you're looking at acquiring a minimum of two additional bullpen arms, and then hoping everyone else finds their way to replacement level for the remainder of the season.

So, right off the bat, you need two quality relief pitchers.

Then you consider that your rotation, at the moment, is Arroyo, Harang, pray that Ramirez is on his game, pray for rain (Milton), and pray for rain (Mays/Claussen). This team isn't going to compete trotting Milton and Mays out there for back-to-back starts every 5 days -- so, now you're likely looking for one more starting pitcher as well.

Your needs are now two quality relief pitchers, and one starting pitcher.

Now, the question is how much value do your players have, who are they valuable to, and how much are you willing to give up for a shot at maybe playing an extra 5 games of baseball in October.

Griffey has almost zero value -- he's an injury risk, has declining defensive skills, and is saddled with a huge-money deal. Moving him would get the Reds salary space, but I doubt any big league return. Aurillia and Hatteberg both might be useful to a team in contention, but no contender is going to send major league pitching back for either of those two -- most you could hope for is maybe a prospect or two. Kearns might have value, but he's been streaky, he's going to get expensive (read: smaller market teams stay away), and there's not a huge demand for right handed bats right now. Maybe he's worth a bullpen arm and a prospect or two, but certainly he doesn't command the value he once did and doesn't hold the value most around here give him. Dunn has value, but he's also the most productive player in the offense; hard to replace that with Chris Denorfia. LaRue is expensive and holds only middling value at this point, but maybe he's worth an underperforming relief arm.

My point is thus -- at a certain point, it becomes a battle of diminishing returns. The Reds are forced to give up more than they're getting back, and the end result is still a race to the finish line that they could easily lose. The Reds have lots of holes (all of the type hardest to fill) and not a lot of spare change lying around to pay to fill them with. It might not be popular, but the best move might not be an all-out commitment to the post season this year but, rather, calculated moves that keep the team in contention this year, but set things up nicely for a squad that stays pretty much the same next year, with possibly some young additions like Votto and Bailey.

The_jbh
07-03-2006, 01:18 AM
You've got to be realistic about where the Reds are right now. They're firmly in contention right now, but how many moves do they need to make to get over the hump and into the postseason?

The bullpen is beyond bad -- it's an outright liability at this point. Aside from Todd Coffey, there's nobody out there that can retire hitters on a consistent basis. That's 5 guys (Belisle, Weathers, Mercker, Shackleford, and Standridge) that are completely unreliable and not a one of which has any place on a contending ballclub. In order to even think about getting into the post season, you're looking at acquiring a minimum of two additional bullpen arms, and then hoping everyone else finds their way to replacement level for the remainder of the season.

So, right off the bat, you need two quality relief pitchers.

Then you consider that your rotation, at the moment, is Arroyo, Harang, pray that Ramirez is on his game, pray for rain (Milton), and pray for rain (Mays/Claussen). This team isn't going to compete trotting Milton and Mays out there for back-to-back starts every 5 days -- so, now you're likely looking for one more starting pitcher as well.

Your needs are now two quality relief pitchers, and one starting pitcher.

Now, the question is how much value do your players have, who are they valuable to, and how much are you willing to give up for a shot at maybe playing an extra 5 games of baseball in October.

Griffey has almost zero value -- he's an injury risk, has declining defensive skills, and is saddled with a huge-money deal. Moving him would get the Reds salary space, but I doubt any big league return. Aurillia and Hatteberg both might be useful to a team in contention, but no contender is going to send major league pitching back for either of those two -- most you could hope for is maybe a prospect or two. Kearns might have value, but he's been streaky, he's going to get expensive (read: smaller market teams stay away), and there's not a huge demand for right handed bats right now. Maybe he's worth a bullpen arm and a prospect or two, but certainly he doesn't command the value he once did and doesn't hold the value most around here give him. Dunn has value, but he's also the most productive player in the offense; hard to replace that with Chris Denorfia. LaRue is expensive and holds only middling value at this point, but maybe he's worth an underperforming relief arm.

My point is thus -- at a certain point, it becomes a battle of diminishing returns. The Reds are forced to give up more than they're getting back, and the end result is still a race to the finish line that they could easily lose. The Reds have lots of holes (all of the type hardest to fill) and not a lot of spare change lying around to pay to fill them with. It might not be popular, but the best move might not be an all-out commitment to the post season this year but, rather, calculated moves that keep the team in contention this year, but set things up nicely for a squad that stays pretty much the same next year, with possibly some young additions like Votto and Bailey.

well negative Nancy... how bout you just piss in my cherios...

First of all, Milton kept us in the game to day, and for the most part has pitched mediocorely, which isn't that bad. He's not a bad #4 starter. We need a #3. As for Ramirez in the 5 spot, hes about a 50/50 guy. half the time hes good half the time hes awful. Not look at him relative to the rest of the league, and hes about par. Very few team outside of the white sox have a consistent #5 starter. Most teams throw in prospects like a Reyes or Billingsley (That as much as we like guy like them, arent much better than ramirez at this stage of their career however they will be more consisent) or players just like Ramirez in the 5 spot.

I think if we can get a closer at the deadline, we move coffey to set up and we are in decent shape. Belisle and stranridge are average relievers imo. They arent gonna save any games but they are serviceable. Weathers and merker have been awful, but very few teams have deep quality bullpens outside their top 4. Shackleford would be fine if we just used him as a loogy and that was it. We need to bring up a Germano or some1 like that as a long reliever or move ramirez to that spot and let some1 else start. Our bullpen is still week but with a closer i think we could survive.

Griffey isnt going anywhere... get over it. I hate the people even mention him as a trade piece. He is not gonna be dealt anywhere because to get a quality reliever out of him we'll have to pay a large chunk of his salary.

Our chips are in freel, denorfia, and a Catcher. As much as I dont like it, Kearns is probably in there too.

WVRedsFan
07-03-2006, 01:19 AM
I totally agree, CE.

If you look at the players that have value--Dunn, Kearns, Griffey, Freel, Lopez, and Phillips, you're hard pressed to see any of them bring the two arms you need to be competitive. The only answer is the minors. Let's hope that Krivsky changes his mind about Homer and others and takes a chance. Otherwise, what you see is what you get.

Ron Madden
07-03-2006, 01:25 AM
Saving their most valuable chips to trade during the offseason, might be the wise move. I believe it could help the club much more in the long run.

I'll duck and cover now. ;)

reds44
07-03-2006, 02:27 AM
well negative Nancy... how bout you just piss in my cherios...

First of all, Milton kept us in the game to day, and for the most part has pitched mediocorely, which isn't that bad. He's not a bad #4 starter. We need a #3. As for Ramirez in the 5 spot, hes about a 50/50 guy. half the time hes good half the time hes awful. Not look at him relative to the rest of the league, and hes about par.
Wait, wait, wait.

Half the time he is good half the time he is awful? He has given up more then 3 runs in only 3 of his 12 starts, and has given up more then 4 once. So in 75% of his starts he gives up 3 runs or less, and 91% of his stats he given up less then 4 or less. He has also gone less then 6 innings only 2 out of his 12 starts.

How is that 50/50?

GAC
07-03-2006, 05:25 AM
Saving their most valuable chips to trade during the offseason, might be the wise move. I believe it could help the club much more in the long run.

I'll duck and cover now. ;)

I actually agree with this Ron.

If it is too late, then it is too late.

While I don't think this current management will do so... I don't want a rush or panic trade that hurts this team in the long run, just for a short term shot THIS YEAR.

It may very well be that we will not be able to adequately fix this BP until season's end. If so, then I am fine with that.

I've enjoyed immensely watching this team this year. Castellini/Krivsky have made some moves that have really helped this team. They also are on record as saying (and realizing) where our currrent problems lie.

Yes - this BP has been our "Achilles Heel" this year, along with our defense.

But if one really thinks about it - we could have far worse problems.

What I mean is that correcting a BP is far easier to address then other issues teams face.

It's just that it is hard to do so at this stage of the season. It is for any team right now with dire needs.

I'm just glad to hear the Castellini says we are buyers not sellers. And by sellers I'm referring to seliing off key cogs on this team for a possible shot this year.

Now is when we find out Krivsky's true mettle - scouring ML, seeing what other teams lack is, do we have something that could fill it, that might be desirable.... and more importantly.... do they have something we need.

Krusty
07-03-2006, 08:43 AM
We're fortunate to be two games out of the NL Central and still be leading the wildcard with this bullpen.

I guarantee Krivsky will do something. A nice package that consists of a lefthanded and righthanded setup men would make us all breathe easier.

Red Leader
07-03-2006, 08:54 AM
We're fortunate to be two games out of the NL Central and still be leading the wildcard with this bullpen.

I guarantee Krivsky will do something. A nice package that consists of a lefthanded and righthanded setup men would make us all breathe easier.


We're 1.0 game out. ;)

PuffyPig
07-03-2006, 10:42 AM
We are 1 game out of first, and leading the wildcard, all with a very bad bullpen. teams chasing us all have great deficiencies in their team also. it's not like we are sinking like a rock, with many teams pulling away from us. Quite the opposite.

There will be few sellers at this time of year, because the majority of NL teams are still in th erace for the wildcard. What management shouldn't do is sacrifice some of our young pitchers who are finally thriving for any kind of quick fix.

VR
07-03-2006, 11:16 AM
We are 1 game out of first, and leading the wildcard, all with a very bad bullpen. teams chasing us all have great deficiencies in their team also. it's not like we are sinking like a rock, with many teams pulling away from us. Quite the opposite.

There will be few sellers at this time of year, because the majority of NL teams are still in th erace for the wildcard. What management shouldn't do is sacrifice some of our young pitchers who are finally thriving for any kind of quick fix.

The good news as well....the Cards bp is due for a cosmic crumble after throwing mega innings because of their starters collective collapses.

The bad news....the Cards have the hutzpah to go out and get Zito or Smoltz, and a bat.


Two elements that I'm hoping for.

First, that the AS break does wonders to rest Mercker, Milton, Weathers. I just don't think there's a long list of relievers to be acquired right now....and Claussen has been eating like a horse on his DL stint, enabling him to come back and quit nibbling. If he comes back and back on last year's pace, a whole lot of things are fixed.

Secondly, maybe find a trade partner for LaRue/Griffey that can net a #4/5 starter or middle reliever. Remember, I said 'hope' ;)


The July schedule has the Brew Crew on it 9 times....a good chance to start getting the positive press they have enjoyed as a 'serious contender' by taking them to the woodshed. July is identity month for your Cincinnati Reds.

PuffyPig
07-03-2006, 11:28 AM
The bad news....the Cards have the hutzpah to go out and get Zito or Smoltz, and a bat.







What would a Zito or a Smoltz cost the Cards????

Well, for openers, Zito won't find himself in St. Louis unless Anthony Reyes (and others) find themselves in Oakland. With 4 out of 5 of the Cards starters FA's after this year, there is no (sane) reason why the Cards would move Reyes. I don't think that will happen. I don't think it can happen. And Zitp won't be moved for less, as someone will pay that kind of price (major league ready starter).

Smoltz// He's signed for next year for $8M, so there's no real reason he has to be moved by the Braves this year. That doesn't mean he won't be, but his cost will be plenty. Smoltz could win some team the WS, he's that clutch.

So don't assume that the cards can drop a few propsect from their pile of plenty and get who ever they want. Because the prospect cost for players like Smoltz and Zito will be huge, and the Cards don't have the surplus to give.

Falls City Beer
07-03-2006, 11:37 AM
The Reds have a bunch of trading chips...and there'll be a bunch of arms moving this deadline. The most persistent and aggressive GM will win the sweepstakes. Get choppin' Wayne.

traderumor
07-03-2006, 11:45 AM
Fixing the bullpen is a task similar to the rotation over the last two years--one pitcher at a time. It's the old "how do you eat an elephant" axiom when you have a problem that seems too large to fix. You remove one poorly performing member, you replace him with a performing member who is a clear improvement. You deal from a surplus (LaRue, Freel) to get something you're missing.

Some folks I would really look hard at right now would be Bobby Howry (take on salary, likely only give up a low level prospect as a result), Elmer Dessens (again, probably a couple of A ballers might get this done), Todd Wellemeyer (I really wanted us to pick him up when he was DFAd). Tom Gordon also is not a bad idea from another thread, but I think he might cost a major leaguer to get. But those are starting points and the only way to rebuild the bullpen--one arm at a time.

Of course, I'd also look to someone like Dumatrait and Germano to fill Weathers' spot after I DFA him.

MartyFan
07-03-2006, 11:54 AM
I think Special K will make some moves to help the team...it may be that the best moves he can make would not bring a top teir player but instead someone like BA when we picked him up from being the #6 starter at Boston.

He's been swingin for the fences since day one and I have no doubt EVERYTHING he has done is for the long term stability of the team.

Caveat Emperor
07-03-2006, 12:17 PM
Not to attack any particular viewpoint -- but rather just as a general sort of inquiry: Everyone just talks "postseason, postseason, postseason"; make the deal that helps get the Reds in the postseason.

I think this squad is good enough to make the postseason if they stay healthy, keep hitting, and maybe get 2-3 more players before the deadline. However, I don't at all think this club is good enough to win a World Championship. Shouldn't that be the goal instead of just making the playoffs?

For example -- I, as Ron said earlier, think this team would be better off selling for young talent instead of selling for major league talent. Remember, the entire nucleus of this team, including Lopez, Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, and Phillips, are all going to be around for next season. Now add in the possibility of an owner willing to go get a GOOD free agent starter and some good free agent bullpeners plus the possibility that guys like Bailey and Votto could be ready for the big show as soon as spring training.

I see a very, very bright 2007 if the Reds are smart enough not to mortgage it a way for shot at getting swept by the Mets in 2006.

Falls City Beer
07-03-2006, 12:22 PM
For example -- I, as Ron said earlier, think this team would be better off selling for young talent instead of selling for major league talent. Remember, the entire nucleus of this team, including Lopez, Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, and Phillips, are all going to be around for next season. Now add in the possibility of an owner willing to go get a GOOD free agent starter and some good free agent bullpeners plus the possibility that guys like Bailey and Votto could be ready for the big show as soon as spring training.

I see a very, very bright 2007 if the Reds are smart enough not to mortgage it a way for shot at getting swept by the Mets in 2006.

Here's my take: why can't the Reds do both--get better for the playoff push AND pick up youth. Why are those enterprises mutually exclusive?

Red Leader
07-03-2006, 12:51 PM
Here's my take: why can't the Reds do both--get better for the playoff push AND pick up youth. Why are those enterprises mutually exclusive?

Those are hard trades to make. Most players that are young and able to contribute now and in the future are not available for trade, and if they are either 1) you have to get extremely lucky to get them, or 2) you have to give up a lot more than the Reds have to give up, or will want to give up for it not to effect the current team and how it's playing. Most of those players mentioned in scenario #1 are young players that aren't exactly lighting it up so far this year, but somehow change things around and start producing in the 2nd half. That would be the equivalent of trying to find the pitching version of Brandon Phillips. It's possible, but not very likely, IMO.

gm
07-03-2006, 12:57 PM
Smoltz// He's signed for next year for $8M, so there's no real reason he has to be moved by the Braves this year. That doesn't mean he won't be, but his cost will be plenty. Smoltz could win some team the WS, he's that clutch.

Which is why I floated the Dunn for Smoltz idea. If the Reds want to make Shuerholz sit up and pay attention (and outbid the large market contenders for Smoltz) they'll have to put Adam on the table.

How bad does Casti want to win in 2006?

REDREAD
07-03-2006, 01:07 PM
Here's my take: why can't the Reds do both--get better for the playoff push AND pick up youth. Why are those enterprises mutually exclusive?

Yes, I agree with you. Teams steal nice young bullpen arms from each other all the time. That would be ideal, to get help for now and the future.

Krusty
07-03-2006, 01:26 PM
Yes, I agree with you. Teams steal nice young bullpen arms from each other all the time. That would be ideal, to get help for now and the future.

The key is keeping the crown jewels in the system and making everyone else available.

Jpup
07-03-2006, 01:35 PM
The key is keeping the crown jewels in the system and making everyone else available.

The only thing that you are going to get for junk is junk.

Red Leader
07-03-2006, 01:35 PM
The key is keeping the crown jewels in the system and making everyone else available.

IMO, there are "two keys".

The first you have addressed, identifying the "crown jewels" in the system, ie. who you want to keep and don't want to part with.

The second is convincing other teams to give you something you need for those players that you make available.

paulrichjr
07-03-2006, 01:38 PM
Not to attack any particular viewpoint -- but rather just as a general sort of inquiry: Everyone just talks "postseason, postseason, postseason"; make the deal that helps get the Reds in the postseason.

I think this squad is good enough to make the postseason if they stay healthy, keep hitting, and maybe get 2-3 more players before the deadline. However, I don't at all think this club is good enough to win a World Championship. Shouldn't that be the goal instead of just making the playoffs?

For example -- I, as Ron said earlier, think this team would be better off selling for young talent instead of selling for major league talent. Remember, the entire nucleus of this team, including Lopez, Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, and Phillips, are all going to be around for next season. Now add in the possibility of an owner willing to go get a GOOD free agent starter and some good free agent bullpeners plus the possibility that guys like Bailey and Votto could be ready for the big show as soon as spring training.

I see a very, very bright 2007 if the Reds are smart enough not to mortgage it a way for shot at getting swept by the Mets in 2006.


I agree BUT it ain't going to happen. (Winning the World Series is the goal not just making the playoffs) If they were to start making trades now for next year you would see Cast get booed worse on Opening Day than prior ownership. Wayne has proven himself with almost ever deal and has given up very little for the future while acquiring what might be one of the top 5 catchers and second basemen in the NL. Imagine this team WITHOUT Arroyo, Ross and Phillips. 2 guys out of the bullpen can be gotten for a pack of gum based on what WayneK has done so far.

schroomytunes
07-03-2006, 01:56 PM
I agree I would rather try to keep the crown jewels in the system than go out and cover this year up with fools gold. Look back at the White Sox series, we got played like a little league team, they are so much more ahead of us right now. I truly believe we will be contenders next year, and this year we will just miss it. We have made great strides in getting young players in place throughout the system, we are a few players short though. Our bullpen is our downfall yes, but they will all be gone next year save a few (2) belisle/coffey. Krivsky will address that in the offseason no doubt, but I propose to him to try to land a guy at this deadline who will help us next year. Someone who can be had for a couple of low A fodder, if we take on salary. A couple of guys I like are:

Rafeal Betencourt-RHRP Cleveland
Elmer Dessens-RHRP KC

both are solid middle relievers, though not world beaters and would provide us with solid middle relief, and wouldn't cost a fortune.

redsfanmia
07-03-2006, 02:32 PM
The second is convincing other teams to give you something you need for those players that you make available.

How do you plan on doing this? Jedi mind trick? There are too many teams in the race and they all need bullpen arms so the fantasy of trading quanity for quality is just that... a fantasy.