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Spitball
07-04-2006, 10:43 AM
Ever hear of David Clyde?

Wow! RFS62 asked this question on the Homer Bailey thread and it got me thinking about all the rushed prospects and busts we've see through the years. (I started to post on that thread but feared that might be highjacking)
Who all have we seen, besides Clyde, ruined by being rushed too soon? I came up with these guys but know there are more.

Rushed and ruined
Steve Dunning
Floyd Bannister
Ben McDonald
Paul Wilson
Bill Pulsipher
Rick Ankiel
Steve Avery
Mark Prior

Also, have there been guys who were rushed and successful?

Rushed and successful
Catfish Hunter
Dwight Gooden
Gary Nolan
Don Gullett

Redny
07-04-2006, 10:49 AM
Mike Morgan

oneupper
07-04-2006, 11:02 AM
Add Vida Blue to the rushed and successful list..

Redmachine2003
07-04-2006, 11:22 AM
You can't prove that any of these pitchers were going to make it in the bigs. Just because people felt like they were rushed doesn't mean that ruined them. They may have never made it in the bigs for what ever reason or they were headed for arm problems at some point and time but rushing them didn't cause it. Now poor management (too many pitches in a game which the Cubs are known for) over coaching (tinkering with deliveries and not allowing the arm to build strength for each change, which the Reds are known for. Most kids have thrown the same way for years and have build up all the muscles in that area to repeat the same throwing action and then some has them change and now they are throwing 90 plus mph using weaker muscles) Will cause kids to break down. Wagner is a good example of someone who can do will in the lower minor, college and once around the league and then struggle just because his fastball is avg and his other pitches are out of the strike zone where young kids will chase. But once the Bigleaguers figure out that they are balls they will just sit on that fastball. He reminds me of Rob Dibble but Dibbs have a better fastball, but when the league figured out that his slider forkball can't remember which one he throw was almost always a ball and laid off of it he got hit hard.

SteelSD
07-04-2006, 11:40 AM
You can't prove that any of these pitchers were going to make it in the bigs. Just because people felt like they were rushed doesn't mean that ruined them. They may have never made it in the bigs for what ever reason or they were headed for arm problems at some point and time but rushing them didn't cause it. Now poor management (too many pitches in a game which the Cubs are known for) over coaching (tinkering with deliveries and not allowing the arm to build strength for each change, which the Reds are known for. Most kids have thrown the same way for years and have build up all the muscles in that area to repeat the same throwing action and then some has them change and now they are throwing 90 plus mph using weaker muscles) Will cause kids to break down. Wagner is a good example of someone who can do will in the lower minor, college and once around the league and then struggle just because his fastball is avg and his other pitches are out of the strike zone where young kids will chase. But once the Bigleaguers figure out that they are balls they will just sit on that fastball. He reminds me of Rob Dibble but Dibbs have a better fastball, but when the league figured out that his slider forkball can't remember which one he throw was almost always a ball and laid off of it he got hit hard.

You're most likely right on Wagner because he can't control the slider. But Dibble, when right, got plenty of K's by painting the outside corner with an unhittable slider. Until injury robbed him of his command, he threw that pitch for strikes aplenty.

Oh, and if we've got a "rushed and eventually successful" list, we can add Jose Rijo to it.

RANDY IN INDY
07-04-2006, 11:55 AM
I think that it is very hard for most kids to take on Major League Baseball at a very young age as a pitcher. So many more pitches than they have ever thrown before (this is what puts real stress on the arm and really tests the mechanics that they have developed, proving them good or bad), and the main difference, even from the minor leagues, being, so many pitches thrown under pressure and duress. It takes a very special individual with a fundamentally sound and repeatable delivery, a really strong arm and legs (the latter maybe even more important) and a lot of composure at a very young age to handle all the stress that comes with playing at the very highest level. If you have a great fastball, you can get by for a while, but you really have to develop a very good second pitch and that is very hard to do at the pinnacle. The second pitch will only get you by for so long, so you better have a third in your repertoire.

I hope Bailey has the makeup (all things mentioned above plus a good work ethic) to be a good major leaguer, and that his pitching mechanics are such that he doesn't blow his arm away in the minors. The Reds surely need someone that they draft to step up and be a pitching star.

westofyou
07-04-2006, 12:42 PM
Mark Fidrych 24 complete games at age 21

RFS62
07-04-2006, 12:44 PM
Mark Fidrych 24 complete games at age 21


The Bird may be my favorite pitcher of all time.

Anyone who hasn't seen the ESPN classic replays of his incredible run with the Tigers is really missing something.

It broke my heart when he blew up his arm.

One of, if not the greatest genuine character in baseball history.

pedro
07-04-2006, 12:46 PM
The Bird may be my favorite pitcher of all time.

Anyone who hasn't seen the ESPN classic replays of his incredible run with the Tigers is really missing something.

It broke my heart when he blew up his arm.

One of, if not the greatest genuine character in baseball history.

He's probably the reason I'm a baseball fan.

Edskin
07-04-2006, 12:51 PM
I truly believe the "rushed him too fast" theory is a cop-out. A convinient excuse to place on a young player whenever they fail to live up to expectations. Has a player EVER been harmed by being "rushed" to the majors? Well, of course I am quite sure it has happened. But there is simply no way to quantify a who's-who on that list.

Pitching is a more "sensative" area than playing an everyday position, so it does seem to make sense to bring along young players more cautiously, however, if a guy is dominating on the lower levels and shows legitimate signs of being able to help the big league squad, I see no harm in giving him a look as long as there isn't some sort of physical dilemma (coming off surgery, etc..).

In Homer's case, I would NOT bring him up yet. But not because I'm afraid of the psychological damage that could be done-- I'd like to see him keep this up on the AA level for awhile and then see how he handles AAA bats. If by the end of the year, he's still cruising, then I see no harm in making him a September call-up.

RFS62
07-04-2006, 12:56 PM
Pitching is a more "sensative" area than playing an everyday position, so it does seem to make sense to bring along young players more cautiously, however, if a guy is dominating on the lower levels and shows legitimate signs of being able to help the big league squad, I see no harm in giving him a look as long as there isn't some sort of physical dilemma (coming off surgery, etc..).

In Homer's case, I would NOT bring him up yet. But not because I'm afraid of the psychological damage that could be done-- I'd like to see him keep this up on the AA level for awhile and then see how he handles AAA bats. If by the end of the year, he's still cruising, then I see no harm in making him a September call-up.


It's not as much "what he's doing" in the minors as it is "how is he doing it?"

What Homer is getting hitters out with in the minors, straight gas, will get him killed in the bigs if it's all he brings with him.

The stats are misleading at this point. It takes expert observation of "how" to add to the "what" to make a decision about when he arrives. And I'm in total agreement with the expert analysis I heard Krivsky give in this regard.

RFS62
07-04-2006, 01:01 PM
He's probably the reason I'm a baseball fan.


Yeah, it was a beautiful thing. Such a shooting star, flaming out in a brilliant crescendo.

One of my biggest interests in sports is the mental side of performance. I don't talk about it here much, but it fascinates me.

The Bird was an epic story. The common man placed in extraordinary circumstances. You didn't have to wonder what was going through his head at any time. He was thinking out loud, for all to see and hear.

I don't think I've ever pulled for an athlete like I pulled for The Bird. He'll always have a special place in my heart.

oneupper
07-04-2006, 01:05 PM
Mark Fidrych 24 complete games at age 21

Now you made me cry...:cry:

Fidrych's demise was one of the saddest thing to happen in baseball in the '70s.

westofyou
07-04-2006, 01:06 PM
The Bird may be my favorite pitcher of all time.

Anyone who hasn't seen the ESPN classic replays of his incredible run with the Tigers is really missing something.

It broke my heart when he blew up his arm.

One of, if not the greatest genuine character in baseball history.

30 years ago, low K rate might have caught him down the road... it did to Rozema who was arookie that year too... That also was the year that LeFlore led off the AS game, 3rd year in MLB after being in jail and the guy leads off the AS game and the Bird starts it.

Good year for a bad team.

westofyou
07-04-2006, 01:08 PM
Now you made me cry...:cry:

Fidrych's demise was one of the saddest thing to happen in baseball in the '70s.
Yep.... on that observation I'll note that the Motor City takes a hit today with the retirment of Stevie Y.

RFS62
07-04-2006, 01:23 PM
In '76, Bird was the word
By Nick Acocella
Special to ESPN.com


"He's like the little boy that's thrown into a pile of horse manure and he's bobbin' up and down and they say how can you be so happy and he says there has to be a pony in here somewhere. His glass is always half full," says former Boston Red Sox pitcher Bill Lee about Mark Fidrych, the darling of baseball in 1976 on ESPN Classic's SportsCentury series.

It was over almost before it began. The phenomenon that was Mark Fidrych lasted only one year. But what a season 1976 was for the charismatic Detroit Tigers pitcher known as "The Bird."

Andy Messersmith's challenge to the reserve clause had led to a spring-training lockout and the end of the traditional structure of teams' contractual relationships with their players. The future was uncertain. Fans were confused. But along came Fidrych -- wiggling and jiggling on the mound, talking to the ball, discarding balls with which opposing batters had managed a hit, chasing away groundskeepers so he could landscape and groom the mound himself, shaking hands with teammates after outstanding plays. And winning.

The Tigers were the worst team in the majors in 1975, going 57-102. Fidrych, a non-roster player, made the team the next spring training even though he lost his only decision and his ERA was 4.66. With Fidrych's wardrobe consisting of T-shirts and cutoff jeans, general manager Jim Campbell bought his 21-year-old pitcher several suits.

For the first five weeks of the season, Fidrych languished in the bullpen, being called to relieve only twice. Then on May 15, manager Ralph Houk gave the 6-foot-3, 175-pound righthander his first major league start -- but only because Fidrych's roommate, pitcher Joe Coleman, had to be scratched because he had the flu.

Fidrych responded brilliantly, retiring the first 14 Cleveland Indians and flirting with a no-hitter until the seventh inning. He finished with a two-hitter and a 2-1 victory.

After losing to the Boston Red Sox, 2-0, 10 days later, he reeled off eight straight wins, including back-to-back 11-inning complete games. (He added another 11-inning game later in the season.) The Tigers responded admirably, winning four of Fidrych's first five starts in their last at-bat, while the rest of the American League scratched its collective head.

At the end of the season, Fidrych had a 19-9 record, league-leading figures in ERA (2.34) and complete games (24), a Rookie of the Year award, and the uncommon distinction of having started the All-Star Game as a rookie.

The Tigers, who finished fifth with a 74-87 record (.460), were 55-78 (.413) in games in which Fidrych wasn't involved in the decision. If Fidrych's 250 innings were removed, the team ERA of 3.87 would have soared to 4.19. And, perhaps most gratifying of all to the front office, "The Bird" was a financial godsend

In 29 starts, Fidrych drew 901,239 fans. At Tiger Stadium, his 18 pitching turns drew 605,677 paying customers, more than 40 percent of the year's total. According to one Wall Street Journal analyst, Fidrych was personally responsible for $1 million of team revenue. And he was fully aware of his impact, posting on his locker a running total of the crowds that attended when he pitched.

But, for the fans, it was his style that was most appealing. The stories are innumerable. At first, no one knew what to make of his antics. Initially resentful over what they thought was an effort to show them up, opposing batters came to realize there was nothing false or calculating about Fidrych. (The best response came from Cleveland outfielder John Lowenstein who said that the next time Fidrych talked to the ball, he was going to ask the umpire to confiscate it and find out what the pitcher had said.)

And it wasn't just his on-field antics that appealed. He habitually stuck his finger in the coin return slot of the pay phone in the clubhouse just in case someone had neglected to retrieve his dime. He spit tobacco juice all over his uniform to show he was one of the boys. When he forgot his own and needed identification so he could buy a drink, he borrowed teammates' IDs, whether he shared even a remote physical likeness with the lender.

He shared a hometown friend's affection for a dance called the Fried Egg, in which he would lay down on the dance floor and roll around. He worried aloud that his major league minimum salary ($16,500) wouldn't be enough for him to buy stamps to answer his fan mail. He reminded everyone that, if he weren't in the majors, he would be pumping gas back in Northboro, Mass.

Despite his protestations to the contrary, most people simply described the manic, lanky righthander with the Harpo Marx haircut as a bona-fide flake.

Fidrych was born on Aug. 14, 1954, in Worcester, Mass. Trained by his father Paul, an assistant school principal, Fidrych was a pitcher in the pickup games among his friends but a shortstop in his first year of American Legion ball. It wasn't until his second season, when a friend took his position away, that he asked his coach, Ted Rolfe, if he could pitch.

Amazed at the boy's skill and poise on the mound, Rolfe asked why he hadn't said he was a pitcher.

"Because you didn't ask," Fidrych replied.

At Algonquin Regional High and Worcester Academy, where he spent his senior year in 1974, Fidrych pitched and played first and the outfield, but neither Rolfe nor Worcester coach Tom Blackburn viewed him as a major league prospect. On weekends during the school year, Fidrych pumped gas at a Sunoco station.

His break came when the Tigers selected him in the 10th round of the draft following his senior season. Signed by Detroit scout Joe Cusick for a $3,000 bonus, which he spent on car payments and unpaid tuition, Fidrych reported to Bristol of the Rookie Appalachian League. In 23 games, all in relief, he went 3-0 with a 2.38 ERA and struck out 40 in 34 innings.

In 1975, he mostly started and worked his way through three teams in three classifications - Lakeland in the Class A Florida State League (5-9, 3.77), Montgomery of the Double-A Southern League (2-0, 3.21 as a closer), and Evansville of the Triple-A American Association (4-1, 1.59) -- and improved at each level. It was Lakeland coach Jeff Hogan who nicknamed Fidrych "Bird," because he reminded him of Big Bird on Sesame Street.

Then it was off to the majors, where everything his father had taught him paid off in 1976, when his fastball and slider tamed American League hitters. After this phenomenal season, the Tigers gave Fidrych a $25,000 bonus and signed him to a three-year deal worth $225,000.

About his antics, Fidrych said he wasn't talking to the baseball; he was actually talking to himself, reminding himself of what he wanted to do with each pitch.

And then, before you really got to know The Bird, his career was over.

During spring training in 1977, he tore cartilage in his knee and went on the disabled list until May 24. Then in July he tore something in his shoulder because he had altered his pitching motion. He went on the DL for the rest of the season with his 6-4 record and 2.89 ERA.

Over the next three years, Fidrych appeared in only 16 games, going 4-6. His major league career ended in 1980 with a record of 29-19 and a 3.10 ERA.

He tried a comeback with the Red Sox's top farm club in Pawtucket in 1982 and 1983; it didn't work out. He had his rotator cuff operated on in 1985 by Dr. James Andrews. But while his enthusiasm never waned, the 93-mile-an-hour fastball never returned.

Fidrych lives with his wife Ann, whom he married in 1986, and their 13-year-old daughter Jessica on a 107-acre farm in Northboro. Aside from fixing up his farmhouse, he works as a contractor hauling gravel and asphalt in a ten-wheeler.


http://info.detnews.com/dn/history/bird/images/33top.jpg

Redmachine2003
07-04-2006, 06:42 PM
[QUOTE=RFS62]It's not as much "what he's doing" in the minors as it is "how is he doing it?"

What Homer is getting hitters out with in the minors, straight gas, will get him killed in the bigs if it's all he brings with him.

The stats are misleading at this point. It takes expert observation of "how" to add to the "what" to make a decision about when he arrives. And I'm in total agreement with the expert analysis I heard Krivsky give in this regard.[/QUOTEI Agree with that. It all depends on how well can the Reds Develop this Kid. A good fastball can get you through the minors but you have to develop other pitches to get through the majors. When you throw in the mid 90's I hate to see kids try and put a little extra on the ball to get some one out. I would rather them learn to take a little something off a pitch to get them out. So the Real question is can the Reds develop players or are do they just like to tinker with them?

Spitball
07-04-2006, 09:00 PM
If the strategy is to improve the Reds' pitching, I would rather package Bailey for a front line starter than bring him up at this time. If the Reds want to develop a young ace, I would let him develop in the minors.

Is a pennant race the place to learn how to make adjustments when he doesn't have his best stuff? He needs to be in the minors learning the rote muscle movements required to repeat his secondary pitches. I once witnessed Ryan Vogelsong throw fifteen straight change-ups in a double A game. Was he throwing them because they were getting people out? No, he was trying to develop muscle memory for that particular pitch. Could he have thrown those pitches on a team trying to win a major league playoff spot? No.

Despite the fact Vogelsong had several of his pitches hit hard, he was also trying to develop confidence in his ability to locate the pitch. Honestly, those double A batters were not pounding the pitch the way the Cardinals or Brewers line-ups would have. A pitcher needs to develop confidence in his pitches because fear and hesitation are the very things that most hinder the successful execution of muscle memory.

I want the Reds to improve their pitching but not by bringing up Bailey too soon.

Redmachine2003
07-05-2006, 01:02 AM
You would rather trade Bailey away for a one to two year rental instead of bring Bailey up to soon. This doesn't make a lick of sense to me. Bailey would only get 10-15 starts and should do fine the First time around the league and have next year to make adustments. I would like to see Bailey stay at AA the rest of the year and make a spot start with Reds in Sept., but if he keeps pitching like he is he will force the Reds hand. I mean why should he make any adjustments or learn how to throw his other pitches if they can't hit what he is throwing now in AA.

Jpup
07-05-2006, 05:36 AM
I would hardly class Mark Prior as a bust, and he wasn't rushed IMO. He was very successful until the Cubs let him throw 130 pitches a night. I am still not convinced that he won't be a great pitcher before all is said and done.

Prior allowed only 3 earned runs on 4 hits for the Cubs on Tuesday. He struck out 7 in 6 innings of work.

GAC
07-05-2006, 06:36 AM
Kerry Wood

GoReds
07-05-2006, 07:24 AM
Two problems with bringing Homer up now, or anytime soon if no other bullpen additions are made:

1- I'm not convinced that the Reds are really in a pennant race. They hit - in spurts, which leads to winning streaks and losing streaks. Right now, it looks like the hitting is just not good enough to make up for the lack of bullpen pitching. Homer is not the only answer to that problem - they need to make multiple changes to the pen before they can consider themselves "in the hunt".

2- What happens if they bring Homer up and he does well? Even if his outings are only an inning or two at a time, I'd be worried that Homer would get the call more and more frequently, thereby running up the pitch count on that arm.

If they call up Homer, it shouldn't be before September and not unless they make multiple changes in the pen before that occurs. I don't want the Homer callup to be viewed as the saving move for the bad bullpen.

Spitball
07-05-2006, 11:35 AM
You would rather trade Bailey away for a one to two year rental instead of bring Bailey up to soon. This doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

Wait, I wasn't advocating a trade. If your strategy is to win now then you package Bailey for a Santana or a Zito. If your strategy is to develop a future ace, let him develop in incremental steps that build rote muscle memory and confidence. What part of too soon don't you understand?


Bailey would only get 10-15 starts and should do fine the First time around the league and have next year to make adustments. I would like to see Bailey stay at AA the rest of the year and make a spot start with Reds in Sept., but if he keeps pitching like he is he will force the Reds hand. I mean why should he make any adjustments or learn how to throw his other pitches if they can't hit what he is throwing now in AA.

I guess you didn't read my whole post on the other page, but I think I already addressed my feelings on pitcher development.


Is a pennant race the place to learn how to make adjustments when he doesn't have his best stuff? He needs to be in the minors learning the rote muscle movements required to repeat his secondary pitches. I once witnessed Ryan Vogelsong throw fifteen straight change-ups in a double A game. Was he throwing them because they were getting people out? No, he was trying to develop muscle memory for that particular pitch. Could he have thrown those pitches on a team trying to win a major league playoff spot? No.

Despite the fact Vogelsong had several of his pitches hit hard, he was also trying to develop confidence in his ability to locate the pitch. Honestly, those double A batters were not pounding the pitch the way the Cardinals or Brewers line-ups would have. A pitcher needs to develop confidence in his pitches because fear and hesitation are the very things that most hinder the successful execution of muscle memory.

Incidentally, I'd like to add Oliver Perez and Zack Greinke to the list of pitchers probably rushed too soon. In 2002 Perez was the youngest pitcher in major league baseball and Greinke soon after. Both may yet have bright futures, but I have to wonder.

Team Clark
07-05-2006, 12:30 PM
Avery should be on the success list IMO. He was not a one or two year wonder. His stuff went flat and he tried to blame it on his shoulder. i.e. Bill Pulsipher.

M2
07-05-2006, 12:40 PM
Avery should be on the success list IMO. He was not a one or two year wonder. His stuff went flat and he tried to blame it on his shoulder. i.e. Bill Pulsipher.

Agreed. Avery had a great three-year run from 1991-93.

Actually you probably get to see a lot of a guy who's heading for a spot on the bust list in Edwin Jackson.

15fan
07-05-2006, 12:43 PM
Ditto on what TClark said on Avery. He put up some stout numbers for several years in a row. He was a big factor in repeatedly getting the Braves to the post-season in the early 90s.

He also pitched 6 innings of 1 ER ball in Game 4 of the 95 WS. That was crucial for the Braves. Smoltz started Game 3 and only went 2.1 innings. The game went 11 innings, so the bullpen logged 8+ innings in game 3. A bum start for Avery in Game 4 would have meant a series tied 2-2 and a shot bullpen for the Braves. Instead, Avery bought some rest for the bullpen arms and kept the Braves in it long enough for the offense to wake up & put the Braves up in the Series 3-1.

Spitball
07-05-2006, 12:45 PM
Avery should be on the success list IMO. He was not a one or two year wonder. His stuff went flat and he tried to blame it on his shoulder. i.e. Bill Pulsipher.

You make a good point, TC, but that brings up another point. Most studies I've seen show that most males/pitchers are not yet fully physically mature until they reach their mid-twenties. I believe that statistics also reveal that most (good) pitchers are at their best around the 27-28 year old (and older) range. Yet, many of the pitchers we have identified as successes, Avery, Gooden, Nolan, Gullett, and Hunter, have burned out by their late twenties or early thirties. Is it possible these young pitchers broke down before they reached their full physical potential? Maybe not, but I have to wonder.

gonelong
07-05-2006, 12:56 PM
Is it possible these young pitchers broke down before they reached their full physical potential? Maybe not, but I have to wonder.

My guess is that they were physically mature at a much earlier age.

I had a kid in my Jr. High class that had a full fledged Magnum PI/Wilford Brimly type mustache at 13 years old. I'm 36 and not quite certain if I could grow that type of mustache if I wanted to.

GL

princeton
07-05-2006, 01:25 PM
You make a good point, TC, but that brings up another point. Most studies I've seen show that most males/pitchers are not yet fully physically mature until they reach their mid-twenties. I believe that statistics also reveal that most (good) pitchers are at their best around the 27-28 year old (and older) range. Yet, many of the pitchers we have identified as successes, Avery, Gooden, Nolan, Gullett, and Hunter, have burned out by their late twenties or early thirties. Is it possible these young pitchers broke down before they reached their full physical potential? Maybe not, but I have to wonder.


frankly, if they don't break down until they're so expensive that they can only be on the rosters of the Yankees/Red Sox, then that's not a problem for the Reds. you're raising a problem that probably exists for the individual, but one that does not exist for the franchise.

in general, I think that what's good for the prospect is good for the franchise. but that's not always true. Avery's the kind of pitcher that the Reds need to produce. They don't need to produce a Don Sutton because by the time his career is over, he will have spent very little of it with the Reds

Spitball
07-05-2006, 02:28 PM
My guess is that they were physically mature at a much earlier age.

I had a kid in my Jr. High class that had a full fledged Magnum PI/Wilford Brimly type mustache at 13 years old. I'm 36 and not quite certain if I could grow that type of mustache if I wanted to.

GL

Hmmm...I'm not sure this qualifies as a scientific study...;)

I have read a few studies that support my statement that young men (and that would include pitchers) don't fully physically mature until they are in their mid twenties. I think there might be merit to keeping a cake in the oven until it is fully ready to enjoy. Slowly nurture and educate the young pitcher until he is both physically and mentally ready.

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/03/age-and-pitching-performance


frankly, if they don't break down until they're so expensive that they can only be on the rosters of the Yankees/Red Sox, then that's not a problem for the Reds. you're raising a problem that probably exists for the individual, but one that does not exist for the franchise.

in general, I think that what's good for the prospect is good for the franchise. but that's not always true. Avery's the kind of pitcher that the Reds need to produce. They don't need to produce a Don Sutton because by the time his career is over, he will have spent very little of it with the Reds

Princeton, I see your point. It's like the Pirates' model for trading an expensive pitcher for a developing one, Smiley for Neagle for Schmidt. The only problem was they had to keep trading the developing pitcher before he could actually help them.

gonelong
07-05-2006, 02:41 PM
Hmmm...I'm not sure this qualifies as a scientific study...;)

Thats why I called it a guess. :D


I have read a few studies that support my statement that young men (and that would include pitchers) don't fully physically mature until they are in their mid twenties.

On average, sure, though thats defining a pattern not an absolute.

If I had to wager a hypothesis as to what was different about these guys that peaked early and were done by the time most guys are just peaking ... it would be that they were physically mature before the mean.

GL

princeton
07-05-2006, 02:50 PM
The only problem was they had to keep trading the developing pitcher before he could actually help them.

bigger problem was that there wasn't enough other talent around to support the pitcher's talent

if you have talent on the major league roster, then it's a reasonable time to blow some of the pitcher's cheap major league time.

If you think that you'll also have just as much major league talent at a later date that's more conducive to the pitcher's developmental timing, then by all means wait. But it strikes me that the Reds will rarely compete.

15fan
07-05-2006, 03:04 PM
bigger problem was that there wasn't enough other talent around to support the pitcher's talent

Since Barry Bonds moved to the left coast between the '92 & '93 seasons, there hasn't been much talent in the Steel City.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/

The best the Pirates have to show for '93-'05 is a 79-83 record in 1997. Other than that, they've been pretty wretched.

The names of some of the regulars & big producers in the Pirates' linuep over the past 12 years read like a de la Hoz post.

oregonred
07-06-2006, 07:46 PM
frankly, if they don't break down until they're so expensive that they can only be on the rosters of the Yankees/Red Sox, then that's not a problem for the Reds. you're raising a problem that probably exists for the individual, but one that does not exist for the franchise.

in general, I think that what's good for the prospect is good for the franchise. but that's not always true. Avery's the kind of pitcher that the Reds need to produce. They don't need to produce a Don Sutton because by the time his career is over, he will have spent very little of it with the Reds


Interesting. Although the Reds really do have a history of keeping guys around with LTCs (often to a fault). The first time the Reds develop a stud starting pitcher (it could happen, really...) they are going to have a huge outcry to get him signed to a LTC.

Mulder might be another good example. Served the A's well in their rotation and for years to come via a savvy trade.