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RedLegSuperStar
07-07-2006, 10:57 PM
Alfonso Soriano, LF--Washington Nationals: Alfonso could be headed to the Stl. Cardinals for a minor league/pitching package

mlb4u.com

The_jbh
07-08-2006, 12:55 AM
what possible minor league cardinals arms would warrant landing soriano? Wainright and Reyes but Reyes is essential to their pitching plans

redsfan4445
07-08-2006, 12:57 AM
be nice if Krivsky can counter this move and make a big trade with the Marlins. On yahoo it says they need a young CF

we trade Deno (CF), Claussen(SP), Travis Wood(SP), Edwin (3B) and another prospect Robert Manuel (SP)
for Willis (SP), Herges (RP), and Cabrara (3B)

this would be a great trade for the Reds!

reds44
07-08-2006, 01:00 AM
be nice if Krivsky can counter this move and make a big trade with the Marlins. On yahoo it says they need a young CF

we trade Deno (CF), Claussen(SP), Travis Wood(SP), Edwin (3B) and another prospect Robert Manuel (SP)
for Willis (SP), Herges (RP), and Cabrara (3B)

this would be a great trade for the Reds!
Or you could just do Deno for Joe Borowski and a Mitre if he gets healthy and call it a day.

P.S. The Fish would never do that deal, and no way we would be able to afford Willis and Cabs in about 2 years.

KronoRed
07-08-2006, 01:24 AM
They won't trade Willis or Cabs, not just yet.

MattyHo4Life
07-08-2006, 03:31 AM
what possible minor league cardinals arms would warrant landing soriano? Wainright and Reyes but Reyes is essential to their pitching plans

Wainwright has been in the Major Leagues all season. The last time he was a minor leaguer was in 2005. Anthony Reyes is in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation, so he wouldn't be considered a minor leaguer either. If this report is true (I doubt it is), then it must be a package of one of the Cardinals other many minor league pitching spects.

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2006, 06:40 AM
The Cards system is weak, no way they get Sorianio without Reyes or Wainwright going to Washington.


then it must be a package of one of the Cardinals other many minor league pitching spects

Quantity doesn't equal quality.

Chip R
07-08-2006, 08:10 AM
You guys forget who the Washington GM is. JimBo wouldn't know good, young pitching if it was in front of him.

MattyHo4Life
07-08-2006, 08:29 AM
Quantity doesn't equal quality.

Do you even know what quality prospects the Cards have?

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2006, 08:44 AM
Do you even know what quality prospects the Cards have?

I know don't have very many.

Please name them.

Spitball
07-08-2006, 09:06 AM
I can't see the Cards getting Soriano. They need pitching and Bowden would surely demand Wainright and/or Reyes. That won't happen. I do expect the Cards to make a strong bid for Reggie Sanders, though.

traderumor
07-08-2006, 09:21 AM
Do you even know what quality prospects the Cards have?It is somewhat common knowledge that the Cards system hasn't produced much of anything in prospects, either pitching or position, in years, matty. I do think you have one stud arm that I've heard a little bit about, but why not fill us in since for most of us its all we can do to keep up with the state of our own system.

Of course, Haren netted you Mulder, but youngsters like Reyes and Wainwright came from other orgs.

Jpup
07-08-2006, 09:25 AM
I know don't have very many.

Please name them.

I've been looking, I don't see many either. Lambert was probably considered the best before the season, but he hasn't done so great at AA Springfield.

WVRed
07-08-2006, 09:30 AM
Of course, Haren netted you Mulder, but youngsters like Reyes and Wainwright came from other orgs.

I think Daric Barton was more responsible for netting the Cardinals Mulder than anything.

I think Reyes was developed by the Cards, but I have been wrong before.

wolfboy
07-08-2006, 09:42 AM
You guys forget who the Washington GM is. JimBo wouldn't know good, young pitching if it was in front of him.

If Ankiel weren't injured, they could present him as the only 6-tool outfielder in the minors. Jimbo would probably trade half the team for him.

Red Leader
07-08-2006, 09:52 AM
I don't think you can consider: Reyes, Wainwright, Duncan, or Brad Thompson prospects any longer as they've all had decent major league exposure. If the Cards are talking about dealing one of these players (the first two extremely doubtful, the last two doubtful) as a prospect, you might have the beginnings of a trade for Soriano. If you are not considering them as prospects, I don't know what kind of package you could put together for him. That leaves guys like Blake Hawksworth (injury prone and not producing much this year); Chris Lambert (talent, but not producing); and Carmen Cali as the remaining top talents, IMO, and even if you agreed to give all 3 of those prospects up (which would harmfully deplete your farm system), I still don't think it would be enough for Soriano.

REDREAD
07-08-2006, 10:21 AM
You guys forget who the Washington GM is. JimBo wouldn't know good, young pitching if it was in front of him.

You've got to admit though, Jimbo easily won the Soraino trade which he was heavily mocked for in the offseason (Not calling you or anyone out, I don't remember who said what)..

Wilkerson is only hitting 238/337/456 and Soriano is having an outstanding season.

OldXOhio
07-08-2006, 10:27 AM
Brian Cashman's going to have something to say about Soriano's final destination before Jocketty gets his hands on him.

RBA
07-08-2006, 10:30 AM
You've got to admit though, Jimbo easily won the Soraino trade which he was heavily mocked for in the offseason (Not calling you or anyone out, I don't remember who said what)..

Wilkerson is only hitting 238/337/456 and Soriano is having an outstanding season.

I remember that also.

Spitball
07-08-2006, 10:59 AM
You've got to admit though, Jimbo easily won the Soraino trade which he was heavily mocked for in the offseason (Not calling you or anyone out, I don't remember who said what)..

Wilkerson is only hitting 238/337/456 and Soriano is having an outstanding season.

Bowden is a natural foil anywhere Reds' fans hang out. I don't recall Bowden getting any more mocking for the Soriano deal than for the leather pants or the drinking.

Bowden really hasn't proven anything with the soriano deal until he proves he can get a bonifide return for the guy. If he gets a package like he did for Denny Neagle, then he has blown it.

Actually, with Soriano, Livan Hernandez, Jose Guillen, and possibly Tony Armas, Bowden better be doing his homework because he has the chips to really load up the Nationals' system. I just wonder how many five tool outfielders we see going his way.

REDREAD
07-08-2006, 12:14 PM
Bowden is a natural foil anywhere Reds' fans hang out. I don't recall Bowden getting any more mocking for the Soriano deal than for the leather pants or the drinking.
.

I recall it being laid on heavy. Bowden was supposedly an idiot because Wilkerson had a nice career OBP, was younger, and under control for 2 more years. Soriano was more expensive and a pending free agent. And there's was plenty of "Bowden is an idiot" talk when Soriano initially refused to go to the OF. I'm not saying Bowden is a god, he makes mistakes like everyone, but this move turned into a stroke of genius. Now he's got probably the most desirable hitter on the market at the trade deadline.. The guy is a hitting machine and can play LF or 2b in a pinch, and it's only a one year commitment.

Now of course, Bowden might mess up the trade of Soriano for prospects, we'll have to wait and see. But it's not a given.

OldXOhio
07-08-2006, 12:45 PM
Bowden really hasn't proven anything with the soriano deal until he proves he can get a bonifide return for the guy.

So you're saying what Soriano has done to this point in 2006 doesn't matter?

MWM
07-08-2006, 12:58 PM
It's not like Bowden had some kind of mysterious ability to see what Soriano was going to do this year. This has been Soriano's best season and there's no way anyone would have predicted it. I think it's a matter of Bowden seeing a player he always coveted and he went and got him and got lucky. I don't think it was a matter of him being a genius. Any GM can make a move that turns out well, it's making them that conssitently turn out well while making few that don't turn out well that's the mark of a good GM. Bowden has his share of good ones, but his other liabilites more than made up for his winning trades.

oregonred
07-08-2006, 01:28 PM
I recall it being laid on heavy. Bowden was supposedly an idiot because Wilkerson had a nice career OBP, was younger, and under control for 2 more years. Soriano was more expensive and a pending free agent. And there's was plenty of "Bowden is an idiot" talk when Soriano initially refused to go to the OF. I'm not saying Bowden is a god, he makes mistakes like everyone, but this move turned into a stroke of genius. Now he's got probably the most desirable hitter on the market at the trade deadline.. The guy is a hitting machine and can play LF or 2b in a pinch, and it's only a one year commitment.

Now of course, Bowden might mess up the trade of Soriano for prospects, we'll have to wait and see. But it's not a given.

Bowden is a genius and now has a trading chip at the deadline! Well except for the minor detail of his team being one of the few sellers, having the 4th worst record in baseball, being 12 under .500 and in last place in the NL East. But I digress :evil:

PuffyPig
07-08-2006, 01:36 PM
.....then it must be a package of one of the Cardinals other many minor league pitching spects.

"many"......:laugh:

Spitball
07-08-2006, 02:03 PM
So you're saying what Soriano has done to this point in 2006 doesn't matter?

Well, the Nationals are in last place and 14 games out of first. What do you want me to say, Soriano made a big difference in the Nationals? I really don't think the value of the trade can be measured until we see what Bowden gets for the guy.

What Soriano has done so far matters only in his trade value. At the time Texas traded him, I believe the market did not favor the seller. Bowden was smart enough to see that and gambled on him hoping he would bring a big return in July. If he doesn't get a big return, Bowden failed in his plan in my opinion.

By the way, Texas dumped Soriano's salary, his glove at second, and is in second place and one game out. I believe the Wilkerson return was secondary to their motives.

KronoRed
07-08-2006, 04:01 PM
Cards just need to sign Reggie Taylor and they are set for anything Washington wants

Mario-Rijo
07-08-2006, 05:02 PM
This trade is highly unlikely to happen. St. Louis prides itself on defense and unless Soriano has recently been touched by the hand of god then defense isn't a strong suit.

The next reason is they need to take what chips they have and turn them into starting pitching. Weaver could help that situation but it's unlikely he will. The third reason is that LaRussa and company need a semi-longterm solution at the COF positions and Soriano will ask for the moon and with his less than stellar defensive prowess it's not gonna happen.

Look for them to target a David Dellucci or Kevin Mench if they go after a bat at all. Someone who is still reasonably priced and productive.

OldXOhio
07-08-2006, 05:17 PM
Well, the Nationals are in last place and 14 games out of first. What do you want me to say, Soriano made a big difference in the Nationals? I really don't think the value of the trade can be measured until we see what Bowden gets for the guy.

What Soriano has done so far matters only in his trade value. At the time Texas traded him, I believe the market did not favor the seller. Bowden was smart enough to see that and gambled on him hoping he would bring a big return in July. If he doesn't get a big return, Bowden failed in his plan in my opinion.

By the way, Texas dumped Soriano's salary, his glove at second, and is in second place and one game out. I believe the Wilkerson return was secondary to their motives.

So the performance of the team overall is the best indicator of the value Bowden obtained from the Soriano trade???? The Nationals were in the playoff hunt all the way til the end last year. In the offseason, Bowden picks up a guy who is doing exactly what that team needed offensively. Trouble for them is other aspects of their performance that made them good last year have let them down in 2006. Soriano is one of their few positives this year and like him or not, Bowden should be commended for making a good deal. What Soriano may bring in the next few weeks is only a sidebar to the Nats actual acquisition of the guy.

Just curious, if the Reds don't make the playoffs, I guess the Arroyo trade is a failure in your mind?

Spitball
07-08-2006, 06:07 PM
So the performance of the team overall is the best indicator of the value Bowden obtained from the Soriano trade???? The Nationals were in the playoff hunt all the way til the end last year. In the offseason, Bowden picks up a guy who is doing exactly what that team needed offensively. Trouble for them is other aspects of their performance that made them good last year have let them down in 2006. Soriano is one of their few positives this year and like him or not, Bowden should be commended for making a good deal. What Soriano may bring in the next few weeks is only a sidebar to the Nats actual acquisition of the guy.

The guy's team is in last place after competing last year and you want me to commend the him for making a good deal? That's like telling the plumber he did a good job wrapping the pipe when it's still leaking. What is Bowden's job? It's to build a winning team. He'll have had Soriano's great bat for half a losing season. I'm not going to judge the trade until I see what return he gets for Soriano.

A trade can't really be judged until time has tested its value. It's like the Bartolo Colon for Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake trade a few years ago. Colon ended up with twenty wins for the season, but did the Expos make a good trade? They ended up trading Colon to the White Sox for El Duque, Rocky Biddle, and Jeff Leifer. In the long run they got a good half season from Colon but lost three outstanding young players.



Just curious, if the Reds don't make the playoffs, I guess the Arroyo trade is a failure in your mind?

Arroyo is signed for two more years after this one and is one of the reasons the Reds are in contention so that's apples and oranges.

Spitball
07-08-2006, 06:18 PM
This trade is highly unlikely to happen. St. Louis prides itself on defense and unless Soriano has recently been touched by the hand of god then defense isn't a strong suit.

Right, and that is why I think Reggie Sanders or even Jose Guillen (who I believe is in the last year of his contract) make more likely targets for the Cards.


Look for them to target a David Dellucci or Kevin Mench if they go after a bat at all. Someone who is still reasonably priced and productive.

Dellucci maybe, but Mench is unlikely unless the Cards are willing to give a really nice return to improve the second place, one game out Rangers.

OldXOhio
07-08-2006, 06:43 PM
The guy's team is in last place after competing last year and you want me to commend the him for making a good deal? That's like telling the plumber he did a good job wrapping the pipe when it's still leaking. What is Bowden's job? It's to build a winning team. He'll have had Soriano's great bat for half a losing season. I'm not going to judge the trade until I see what return he gets for Soriano.

A trade can't really be judged until time has tested its value. It's like the Bartolo Colon for Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Casey Blake trade a few years ago. Colon ended up with twenty wins for the season, but did the Expos make a good trade? They ended up trading Colon to the White Sox for El Duque, Rocky Biddle, and Jeff Leifer. In the long run they got a good half season from Colon but lost three outstanding young players.

The subject at hand here has been Bowden's acquisition of Soriano...not his performance overall as GM. You want to grade him in that regard or discuss his job in building for the future, start another thread. The trade so far has been one sided in favor of the Nats and as I recall, there aren't prospects in the deal akin to your aformentioned Colon deal. The principals in the deal are Soriano and Wilkerson and enough time has passed to determine that Bowden won that deal hands down. I'm not a big fan of Jimbo's, but you have to give the man his due on this one.

Outshined_One
07-08-2006, 07:41 PM
I know don't have very many.

Please name them.

Reyes and Wainwright were mentioned. The Cards have a few guys who've been doing well:

P Mitch Boggs
P Jaime Garcia
C Bryan Anderson
OF Nick Stavinoha
OF Colby Rasmus

Stavinoha is the only guy on that list above A ball. Garcia is the best pitcher on that list with terrific numbers down in the Quad Cities. Boggs has posted respectable numbers in the FSL. Anderson makes good contact, but has little power. Rasmus is the best prospect in their system with very good overall numbers and athleticism to match.

They have a few guys who were rated well in their system by BA last year...but a lot of them have been struggling, injured, or just have not been all that good (SS Tyler Greene, 3B Travis Hanson, P Chris Lambert, OF Cody Haerther, P Nick Webber, P Stuart Pomeranz, P Mark McCormick).

Spitball
07-08-2006, 07:54 PM
The subject at hand here has been Bowden's acquisition of Soriano...not his performance overall as GM. You want to grade him in that regard or discuss his job in building for the future, start another thread.

Wait, I'll slow this down for you. I have not been dicussing "his performance overall as GM". I have been discussing what I believe is the requirement for this trade to be graded successful.



The trade so far has been one sided in favor of the Nats and as I recall, there aren't prospects in the deal akin to your aformentioned Colon deal. The principals in the deal are Soriano and Wilkerson and enough time has passed to determine that Bowden won that deal hands down. I'm not a big fan of Jimbo's, but you have to give the man his due on this one.

If you want to make this a shallow interpretation, then go ahead. There is more to a trade than just who is putting up the better numbers at the freakin' all-star break.

Did the Rangers really think Wilkerson would put up numbers comparable to Soriano's? Was that their goal?

No. A big fat no. They wanted to improve their defense and get out from under Soriano's contract so they could sign Kevin Millewood. The fact that the Rangers are one game out of first place and Wilkerson is their team leader in homeruns and runs scored is a plus. Wilkerson's batting average is down, but his .337 OBP is nearly identical to Soriano's. But, so far here at the all-star break, I will give Bowden a statistical edge in the trade if it makes you happy. Personally, I want to wait to see what return he gets for Soriano. This trade may not have a clear cut winner for years...That's just the way trades are...See Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz.

Chip R
07-08-2006, 08:42 PM
You've got to admit though, Jimbo easily won the Soraino trade which he was heavily mocked for in the offseason (Not calling you or anyone out, I don't remember who said what)..

Wilkerson is only hitting 238/337/456 and Soriano is having an outstanding season.

That trade did not look good for JimBo when it happened. It really did not look good during ST when he refused to play LF. However, Soriano has hit well, like usual, even in that hitters graveyard. And he has not been a total butcher in the OF. Point for JimBo. But if he cannot turn Soriano into gold, not so good for JimBo.

And what I said earlier is that JimBo would not know a good young pitcher if he was right in front of him. What I meant by that is that Jocketty could easily pull the wool over JimBo's eyes as far as dealing him pitching prospects. Jocketty could probably pass off a C pitching prospect as an A pitching prospect to JimBo. Look over every trade for young pitching that JimBo has made for both the Reds and the Nats. How many of those young pitchers that he has acquired or drafted have amounted to anything? My memory may be failing but I sure cannot remember a single one.

OldXOhio
07-08-2006, 08:52 PM
The guy's team is in last place after competing last year and you want me to commend the him for making a good deal? That's like telling the plumber he did a good job wrapping the pipe when it's still leaking. What is Bowden's job? It's to build a winning team.

Perhaps you can slow things down for yourself Spit b/c the above statement is in fact a commentary on Bowden's overall performance as the GM, not just regarding the Soriano trade. Again, that really wasn't what we were discussing, but take it there if you like, that's cool.

Phhhl
07-08-2006, 09:02 PM
What Soriano is doing doesn't surprise me. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that he would probably out-produce Wilkerson. I don't think Bowden deserves much credit for that.

What he does with him now is what counts. St. Louis has very little of anything to offer, but that didn't stop the Braves from giving them a couple of the best pitchers in their system for a lame duck outfielder a few years ago. Teams seem to lose their minds dealing with the Cards, so who knows... I do doubt it, though.

OldXOhio
07-08-2006, 09:34 PM
What Soriano is doing doesn't surprise me. It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that he would probably out-produce Wilkerson. I don't think Bowden deserves much credit for that.

On pace for 50 bombs doesn't surprise you...in that park....with that lineup?

M2
07-08-2006, 10:04 PM
Colby Rasmus is a true five-tooler. I assume the Cardinals can have anything they want from JimBo for that kid.

Chip R
07-08-2006, 10:05 PM
On pace for 50 bombs doesn't surprise you...in that park....with that lineup?

Agreed. I think I saw somewhere that he is hitting better at home than on the road. Lots of people thought his numbers would drop off in RFK. If he can hit there, he can hit anywhere.

OnBaseMachine
07-08-2006, 10:37 PM
Reyes and Wainwright were mentioned. The Cards have a few guys who've been doing well:

P Mitch Boggs
P Jaime Garcia
C Bryan Anderson
OF Nick Stavinoha
OF Colby Rasmus

Stavinoha is the only guy on that list above A ball. Garcia is the best pitcher on that list with terrific numbers down in the Quad Cities. Boggs has posted respectable numbers in the FSL. Anderson makes good contact, but has little power. Rasmus is the best prospect in their system with very good overall numbers and athleticism to match.

They have a few guys who were rated well in their system by BA last year...but a lot of them have been struggling, injured, or just have not been all that good (SS Tyler Greene, 3B Travis Hanson, P Chris Lambert, OF Cody Haerther, P Nick Webber, P Stuart Pomeranz, P Mark McCormick).

Matty said the Cards had many pitching prospects. That's not true at all.

Boggs is 22 years old and has a 1.35 WHIP in a pitcher's league. Unimpressive. And Garcia has been hit pretty hard since moving up to High-A. The Cards system is weak, even weaker than the Reds.

Johnny Footstool
07-09-2006, 01:21 AM
By the way, Texas dumped Soriano's salary, his glove at second, and is in second place and one game out. I believe the Wilkerson return was secondary to their motives.

Texas would be in 1st place with Soriano instead of Kinsler/DeRosa at 2B. That's a call I'm willing to make.

While I agree that Jimbo overpaid for Soriano at the time of the trade, I have to say it turned out to be a huge win for him. Huge.

I think it's vindictive to disparage the outcome of the deal and say the only thing that matters is what Jimbo gets in return when he trades Soriano.

Jimbo made a good move. He made some good moves when he was running the Reds. Accept it and move on.

Patrick Bateman
07-09-2006, 01:32 AM
Texas would be in 1st place with Soriano instead of Kinsler/DeRosa at 2B. That's a call I'm willing to make.



I'm guessing they won't answer......

OPS for the 3 guys in question:

Kinser .943
Soriano .886
Derosa .884

Considering Soriano's defense and high price tag, I'm not sure why Texas would have any interest.

Got any pitching for them???

toledodan
07-09-2006, 02:50 AM
If Ankiel weren't injured, they could present him as the only 6-tool outfielder in the minors. Jimbo would probably trade half the team for him.


that is one of the funniest things i've read on here in a long time and so TRUE!

:bowrofl: :bowrofl: :bowrofl: :bowrofl:

Spitball
07-09-2006, 10:46 AM
Texas would be in 1st place with Soriano instead of Kinsler/DeRosa at 2B. That's a call I'm willing to make.

Yep, and Al Gore invented the internet. ;)

You can say it, but that doesn't make it true. You could say they'd be in first place if they'd had Alex Rodriguez playing shortstop instead of Michael Young, but hat would be ignoring the bigger picture. God gave us brain capacity beyond simple ground level analysis.

The Rangers knew they'd have more trouble moving Soriano over the winter, but they went ahead and moved him because they wanted to free up cash to pursue front end of their rotation pitchers which turned out to be Millwood and Padilla. Would they be contending without Millwood and Padilla? No, and that is a call I'm willing to make.

Trading Soriano wasn't about acquiring Wilkerson.


I agree that Jimbo overpaid for Soriano at the time of the trade, I have to say it turned out to be a huge win for him. Huge.

Again, I don't see how a half season is any measure. What if he gets a return similar in quality to Henson, Melian, Reith, and Yarnell? Would it still be huge?

And, while we are at it, what about Wily Mo for Arroyo, now? You were probably the biggest critic at the time of the trade. Can we now call this trade officially huge for the Reds or do we have to wait to see how the future pans out???


I think it's vindictive to disparage the outcome of the deal and say the only thing that matters is what Jimbo gets in return when he trades Soriano.

Jimbo made a good move. He made some good moves when he was running the Reds. Accept it and move on.

I have never been critical of Bowden, not once. Check my posts. I'm not critical of him now. I'm just saying that the Soriano trade is not a great move until he gets a good return that improves his team.

M2
07-09-2006, 10:58 AM
Texas is getting a .317/.384/.520 line from its 2Bs with some defense thrown in.

Wilkerson's been generally disappointing (and he's been part of a teamwide power outage), but I doubt the Rangers are sitting around wishing they had Soriano back in the fold. Chris Young, that's another story.

Phhhl
07-09-2006, 02:15 PM
On pace for 50 bombs doesn't surprise you...in that park....with that lineup?

Not with the number of guys who are on pace for monster home run totals too. I wouldn't have even projected Pujols to have 30 bombs at the break, so I think there has to be a "curve" when looking at some of these numbers. Soriano is ahead of schedule, granted. But, he's on pace for almost 700 ab's batting leadoff and it's no secret that he possesses tremendous power.

OldXOhio
07-09-2006, 03:23 PM
This from Today's Tulsa World's "Farm systems graded" section. Not the foremost authority in anything sports related, but when the Cardinal homer hacks here come to this conclusion, it's safe to say it's been widely regarded that way for quite some time.....

St. Louis: Only Memphis (AAA) has a losing record among the four full-season teams. RHP Anthony Reyes and OF Chris Duncan have been called up from Memphis and will make an impact in the majors, but several other top prospects have taken a step backwards. An exception is OF Colby Rasmus, recently promoted to Palm Beach (A) after batting .310 at Quad Cities. OF Terry Evans was among the minors' home run leaders when he was traded to the Angels. The Cards' ability to make more trades for big league help is restricted by a lack of thriving minor league prospects. Grade: C.

Johnny Footstool
07-09-2006, 05:32 PM
Yep, and Al Gore invented the internet.

You can say it, but that doesn't make it true. You could say they'd be in first place if they'd had Alex Rodriguez playing shortstop instead of Michael Young, but hat would be ignoring the bigger picture. God gave us brain capacity beyond simple ground level analysis.

The Rangers knew they'd have more trouble moving Soriano over the winter, but they went ahead and moved him because they wanted to free up cash to pursue front end of their rotation pitchers which turned out to be Millwood and Padilla. Would they be contending without Millwood and Padilla? No, and that is a call I'm willing to make.

While I'll admit the Kinsler/Derosa combo has been surprisingly effective, Texas has received a .792 OPS out of its left fielders this season. Soriano would have upgraded that lineup one way or another.

Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood have been league average pitchers for the Rangers. Instead of spending $10 million on Soriano, the Rangers spent $11 on two mediocre starters. I think you're giving them way too much credit.

M2 is right about Chris Young. He would have helped that team more than Padilla and Millwood put together.

IslandRed
07-09-2006, 05:47 PM
Vincente Padilla and Kevin Millwood have been league average pitchers for the Rangers. Instead of spending $10 million on Soriano, the Rangers spent $11 on two mediocre starters. I think you're giving them way too much credit.

There's plenty of value in league average, particularly for a club that's spent the last several years with a rotation full of guys worse than that. Add Soriano and subtract Millwood and Padilla and fill those two rotation slots with who knows what, and what you'd have is a Rangers team largely resembling its good-hit no-pitch also-ran predecessors of the last half-decade.

OldXOhio
07-09-2006, 06:15 PM
Add Soriano and subtract Millwood and Padilla and fill those two rotation slots with who knows what, and what you'd have is a Rangers team largely resembling its good-hit no-pitch also-ran predecessors of the last half-decade.

Hmmm, sounds vaguely similar to someone else...just can't place it.

Johnny Footstool
07-10-2006, 09:47 AM
There's plenty of value in league average, particularly for a club that's spent the last several years with a rotation full of guys worse than that. Add Soriano and subtract Millwood and Padilla and fill those two rotation slots with who knows what, and what you'd have is a Rangers team largely resembling its good-hit no-pitch also-ran predecessors of the last half-decade.

If they would have kept Soriano and Young instead of acquiring Millwood and Padilla, don't you think they'd be in better shape?

Also, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to acquire Padilla's $4m salary AND keep both Soriano and Young.

registerthis
07-10-2006, 09:53 AM
On pace for 50 bombs doesn't surprise you...in that park....with that lineup?

Yep, anyone who had Soriano pegged for the kind of numbers he has put up for that team in that stadium must also be getting a good read on next week's lotto numbers.

Soriano has performed above expectations, not much question about that.

westofyou
07-10-2006, 10:29 AM
Yep, anyone who had Soriano pegged for the kind of numbers he has put up for that team in that stadium must also be getting a good read on next week's lotto numbers.

Soriano has performed above expectations, not much question about that.
Yep, the RH HR factor in RFK was a low 76.. with only 19 HR's by RH's all season.

Soriano has 16 himself at home this season.

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2006, 11:30 AM
If they would have kept Soriano and Young instead of acquiring Millwood and Padilla, don't you think they'd be in better shape?



I'm not so sure they would be in regards to this season.

Millwood has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year, while Young has been the opposite.

In 109 innings Young has 104 Ks to 38 BBs which is very good, but has also allowed 16 HRs. This while pitching half his games in Petco. A switch to Texas is just going to make things worse.

In 110 innings Millwood has 75 Ks and 23 BBs while surrendering 10 HRs.

For the rest of the season Millwood is the better bet to pitch better IMO.

Johnny Footstool
07-10-2006, 12:41 PM
I'm not so sure they would be in regards to this season.

Millwood has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year, while Young has been the opposite.

In 109 innings Young has 104 Ks to 38 BBs which is very good, but has also allowed 16 HRs. This while pitching half his games in Petco. A switch to Texas is just going to make things worse.

In 110 innings Millwood has 75 Ks and 23 BBs while surrendering 10 HRs.

For the rest of the season Millwood is the better bet to pitch better IMO.

Chris Young has been incredible on the road this season (.96 WHIP, 2.24 ERA), so he hasn't really benefitted from Petco yet. And his K-rate is much higher than Millwood's, which makes him less dependent on BABIP.

Millwood's HR rate is almost exactly at his norm (1 HR per 10 IP), so that's going to stay constant. Young had some serious gopherball problems in April and May, but he seems to have gotten it under control in June and July (3 HR in 43 IPs). I think his second half HR rate will be much better than his first half's.

Plus Young costs $6 million less than Millwood.

Patrick Bateman
07-10-2006, 05:48 PM
Plus Young costs $6 million less than Millwood.

I was just talking about skill level for this season. If you are talking about who would you rather have as a player, Young would be the obvious pick because of age and salary. Young just wont keep pitching as good as it appears.

IslandRed
07-10-2006, 06:32 PM
If they would have kept Soriano and Young instead of acquiring Millwood and Padilla, don't you think they'd be in better shape?

Also, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to acquire Padilla's $4m salary AND keep both Soriano and Young.

Well, that's not exactly the right question. The Rangers already upped the payroll from $55 million to $68 million this year, primarily earmarked to pitching upgrades, so it's probably not correct to say "oh, they could have spent more, no problem." Easy when it's not our money. :laugh:

The real problem is that the Rangers saved $6 million in the Soriano trade but took on about that much in the six-player deal involving Young and Adam Eaton. They could have had Soriano AND Young AND Millwood AND Padilla for what they're paying now, instead of Milwood, Padilla, Wilkerson and an injured Eaton, and they'd probably be leading the division.

MattyHo4Life
07-10-2006, 07:25 PM
Matty said the Cards had many pitching prospects. That's not true at all.

That is true. The Cards do have a lot of pitching prospects. I didn't say they were all as good as Reyes and Wainwright, because they aren't. Mark McCormick is a guy that is on the same level as Wainwright is. A couple of years ago the Cardinals strength was pitching, and now they have better hitting spects. One reason is that their pitching spects such as Wainwright, Thompson, and Reyes are helping the Major League club. For years, everybody downgrades the Cardinals minor league system, and they are perceived as having no prospets. Everytime a trade is mentioned regarding the Cardinals, the mindset of most fans of opposing teams is that the Cardinals don't have anything to trade. I always am amazed that players seem to be overlooked by most when they are in the Cards system, but are recognized as being good players once they go to another team. The Cardinals have supposedly had the worst minor league system for the past several years. Although players such as Albert Pujols, Matt Morris, Dan Haren, Coco Crisp, Adam Wainwright, and Anthony Reyes among many others have come through the Cardinals system.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2006, 07:30 PM
That is true. The Cards do have a lot of pitching prospects. I didn't say they were all as good as Reyes and Wainwright, because they aren't. Mark McCormick is a guy that is on the same level as Wainwright is. A couple of years ago the Cardinals strength was pitching, and now they have better hitting spects. One reason is that their pitching spects such as Wainwright, Thompson, and Reyes are helping the Major League club. For years, everybody downgrades the Cardinals minor league system, and they are perceived as having no prospets. Everytime a trade is mentioned regarding the Cardinals, the mindset of most fans of opposing teams is that the Cardinals don't have anything to trade. I always am amazed that players seem to be overlooked by most when they are in the Cards system, but are recognized as being good players once they go to another team. The Cardinals have supposedly had the worst minor league system for the past several years. Although players such as Albert Pujols, Matt Morris, Dan Haren, Coco Crisp, Adam Wainwright, and Anthony Reyes among many others have come through the Cardinals system.

Yes, I guess it is true that the Cards have many pitching prospects, however, quantity doesn't equal quality. Mark McCormick is on the same level as Wainwright?!? Dude, stop being such a homer. McCormick is almost 23 years old and has a 1.50 WHIP in low-A. How ridiculous. Jeez.

WVRed
07-10-2006, 07:39 PM
Although players such as Albert Pujols, Matt Morris, Dan Haren, Coco Crisp, Adam Wainwright, and Anthony Reyes among many others have come through the Cardinals system.

The Braves say hi.

WVRed
07-10-2006, 07:41 PM
Yes, I guess it is true that the Cards have many pitching prospects, however, quantity doesn't equal quality. Mark McCormick is on the same level as Wainwright?!? Dude, stop being such a homer. McCormick is almost 23 years old and has a 1.50 WHIP in low-A. How ridiculous. Jeez.

Keep in mind this is the same team that managed to deal Danny Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder.

I'm sure there were others teams who could have offered more than Barton, but Jocketty will pull the trigger if it will help his team.

Spitball
07-10-2006, 08:47 PM
If they would have kept Soriano and Young instead of acquiring Millwood and Padilla, don't you think they'd be in better shape?

Also, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to acquire Padilla's $4m salary AND keep both Soriano and Young.

You can debate this side note on a detail I used to explain the Rangers' reasoning, but this was not the focus of the discussion. There where reasons the Rangers traded Soriano and that is a debate on its own.

The focus of my contention has been that the success of Washington's acquisition of Soriano can't be judged based on one half a season. This is an unfinished story because we have to see how Soriano is flipped. Isn't that fair? I'll ask you again about the Arroyo for Pena trade. You criticized Krivsky at the time of the trade, but can you now say, as you did of Bowden,
"...it turned out to be a huge win for him. Huge"? Don't we really have to wait before calling huge wins?



They could have had Soriano AND Young AND Millwood AND Padilla for what they're paying now, instead of Milwood, Padilla, Wilkerson and an injured Eaton, and they'd probably be leading the division.

Uhm...The Rangers are leading the division.;)

IslandRed
07-10-2006, 09:18 PM
Uhm...The Rangers are leading the division.;)

OK, so I meant "alone in the lead." :p:

Spitball
07-11-2006, 12:13 AM
OK, so I meant "alone in the lead." :p:

Nitpicker...:p:

REDREAD
07-11-2006, 09:46 AM
It's not like Bowden had some kind of mysterious ability to see what Soriano was going to do this year. This has been Soriano's best season and there's no way anyone would have predicted it. .

True, you never know for sure that it's going to be his best year, but it's usually a decent bet to grab a guy when he's one year away from free agency. A lot of guys (not in pennant races) seem a lot more motivated then.




I think it's a matter of Bowden seeing a player he always coveted and he went and got him and got lucky. I don't think it was a matter of him being a genius. .

Well, I'm going to disagree. He did a trade that the majority of people here proclaimed to be stupid, and he clearly won the trade. Just because something can not be predicted mathematically (like comparing career OBP) doesn't mean the result is "luck". Bowden is a big fan of computer projections and having trusted scouts look at the player. Perhaps he has a better system.
The guy has always had a talent for picking up good hitters, you can not dispute that. Sure, a few of them washed out, but he's had an amazing success rate. Gant, Todd Walker, Mitchell, Dunn, Kearns, Guillen, etc.

REDREAD
07-11-2006, 09:47 AM
Bowden is a genius and now has a trading chip at the deadline! Well except for the minor detail of his team being one of the few sellers, having the 4th worst record in baseball, being 12 under .500 and in last place in the NL East. But I digress :evil:

Considering what he inherited (one of the worst teams in baseball 2 years ago), he's doing well.

Johnny Footstool
07-11-2006, 10:19 AM
The focus of my contention has been that the success of Washington's acquisition of Soriano can't be judged based on one half a season. This is an unfinished story because we have to see how Soriano is flipped. Isn't that fair? I'll ask you again about the Arroyo for Pena trade. You criticized Krivsky at the time of the trade, but can you now say, as you did of Bowden,
"...it turned out to be a huge win for him. Huge"? Don't we really have to wait before calling huge wins?

Different circumstances. Krivsky did win the Arroyo/Pena deal up to this point, much to my surprise. But that story is far from over -- Arroyo has a couple of years left on his contract, and Pena is still very young and has time to develop. The purpose of that deal was to improve the principals in the long term, so it needs to be judged in the long term.

Soriano/Wilkerson is a much shorter-term deal, since Soriano is in his contract year and Wilkerson has pretty much reached his plateau as a player at age 29. The whole reason Jimbo made the deal was to make the Nationals stronger *this season*, either in terms of the standings (which failed) or in terms of possessing tradeable commodities (which succeeded). I don't think I'd be going out on a limb to say that Soriano is much more valuable at this point than the Wilkerson package. The deal is done, and Jimbo greatly improved his ability to acquire future talent. Even if Jimbo screws up when dealing Soriano, he still deserves credit for making a great move to get him.

REDREAD
07-11-2006, 10:23 AM
Look over every trade for young pitching that JimBo has made for both the Reds and the Nats. How many of those young pitchers that he has acquired or drafted have amounted to anything? My memory may be failing but I sure cannot remember a single one.

Well, in all honesty, Bowden has not traded for many young pitchers, considering the length of his career as GM. In Cincy, since the Reds wanted a "win now" approach, he generally signed vets. Here's the young pitchers that I recall him trading for and/or developing. I think Bowden was brought in 1993, but maybe it was 92. I'm going to list everyone I can remember that was under 30 when Bowden got him, because some of the best moves he made were guys that were in their 20's that had unrealized talent.. If you don't want to consider them, I'll put their approximate age in, so you can disregard them.

The good
Reyes
Sullivan
Williamson
Graves
Tomko
Brantley (was 28, still fairly young, when the Reds got him in 94)
Chuck McElroy (was 26, I think in 94)
Burba (29)
CJ Nitcowski
Remlinger (27)
Schourek (26 or 27 ???)
Gabe White (Maybe it was the previous GM that plucked him from Expos, I can't recall).
BJ Ryan
Reidling
Brower (although he may have been 30 when picked up, I think he had less than 3 years sevice time, maybe he had 4).
Reitsma



The disappointments
Rob Bell
Reith
Carrasco
Tim Fotugno
Winchester
Mercado
Acevado
Chen
Luke Hudson
Dempster

Note that the first three guys were all very highly regarded throughout baseball when they were picked up. Maybe not Reith, but Bell and Carrasco were very highly thought of. So, it wasn't just Bowden that thought those guys had potential.

Add in David Wells from Detriot, Neagle, Harnisch, Shaw, Belinda, Dessens, talking Mercker out of retirement, and a few other picks, and Bowden isn't such a poor judge of pitching talent as some people think. Also consider that Allen handcuffed Bowden on the draft, forcing him to make subobtimal drafts, because his hands were tied.

REDREAD
07-11-2006, 10:29 AM
Trading Soriano wasn't about acquiring Wilkerson.



I'm of the opinion that in a trade, one team doesn't have to necessariliy be the "loser". There's been good arguements that the move worked out good for Texas.

But let's look at it purely from Washington's perspective. A huge win. If your theory is that Texas was desparate to dump Soriano (which may be true), then give Bowden credit for pouncing in and stealing him. Just like we give Wayne credit for jumping in and stealing Arroyo because the Red Sox thought they had too much pitching and decided to give Arroyo away.

Good GMs stay in contact with all the teams, so that they can grab the Brandon Phillips, Arroyo, or Soriano when another team is willing to give him away.