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RFS62
07-09-2006, 03:15 PM
'Cause I was wondering if we could get a volume discount on a great old big industrial strength barrell of Prozac for RedsZone.

Holy schnike!!!!

I've never heard so much whining and moaning and wailing and gnashing of teeth in my life!!!

You'd think we were 40 games out of first place if you just wondered in here off the street.

Conspiracy theories that would make Oliver Stone blush.

Compare where we are today to where you thought we'd be at the All Star break before spring training started.

I'm all for spirited debate and discussion, but sweet sassy molassy, people!!!! Chicken Little sounds like Chuck Norris compared to a lot of stuff I'm reading here.

If you can't enjoy this level of overachieving, I don't have a lot of hope for you when everyone reverts to their norms.

Joseph
07-09-2006, 03:37 PM
:clap:

Couldn't be more correct. Day in day out the world is coming to an end according to some.

Matt700wlw
07-09-2006, 03:40 PM
I think the break will do all of us some good.

reds44
07-09-2006, 03:49 PM
I think the break will do all of us some good.
Amen to that.

Everyone here knows I need it.
:laugh:

KronoRed
07-09-2006, 03:59 PM
I doubt the break helps, the only thing that seems to help is the team falling apart :lol:

We need to hijack a shipment of Prozac for some ;)

NYMoose
07-09-2006, 04:03 PM
I can provide Effexor. :cool:

KronoRed
07-09-2006, 04:04 PM
What are your prices? ;)

NYMoose
07-09-2006, 04:22 PM
What are your prices? ;)


Pretty good, I work at a plant that manufactures the granulation. I think most of our employees have prescriptions for it. :devil:

RFS62
07-09-2006, 04:44 PM
Pretty good, I work at a plant that manufactures the granulation. I think most of our employees have prescriptions for it. :devil:



Great. We've eliminated the middle man!!

We're gonna need a lot, you know.

Topcat
07-09-2006, 04:44 PM
I can provide Effexor. :cool:


Go by its generic name Venlafaxine :p:

Matt700wlw
07-09-2006, 04:54 PM
Here's some medicine.

Homer Bailey can throw a 98mph fastball :eek:

Edskin
07-09-2006, 04:54 PM
62-- Honestly, am I happy where we are in the standings? Sure.

BUT. IMO, this franchise is still pretty much in shambles from a roster standpoint. I am thrilled we now have a front office that wants to win and is willing to spend. However, I fear an early season streak of luck is going to color their decsion-making for the future.

No one should be jumping of the ledge because we've lost a bunch of games headed into the break-- in statistical terms, we're still right there-- a good week away from being in the playoffs. But looking beyond this season and to the future, REALLY scares me-- I STILL think this pitching staff is in need of a near 100% overhaul, and I don't see how you can do that w/o tearing it all apart first.

KronoRed
07-09-2006, 05:01 PM
Here's some medicine.

Homer Bailey can throw a 98mph fastball :eek:
It got hit :evil:

Matt700wlw
07-09-2006, 05:03 PM
It got hit :evil:

I know....but still...that's serious!

No blister and it may have been a different story. He blew the first hitter into next week.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2006, 05:04 PM
Here's some medicine.

Homer Bailey can throw a 98mph fastball :eek:

Dose of medicine = Good

Dose of reality (he can't throw anything BUT a 98mph fastball) = Bad

westofyou
07-09-2006, 05:10 PM
1 year ago tomorrow and today.


NL Central

Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RA
St. Louis Cardinals 88 56 32 0 .636 - 447 340
Houston Astros 88 44 43 1 .506 11.5 365 362
Chicago Cubs 87 43 44 0 .494 12.5 394 394
Milwaukee Brewers 88 42 46 0 .477 14.0 392 374
Pittsburgh Pirates 87 39 48 0 .448 16.5 365 403
Cincinnati Reds 89 35 53 1 .398 21.0 434 518

CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA
St. Louis 47 39 .547 - 26-17 21-22 433 420
Cincinnati 45 44 .506 3.5 20-22 25-22 448 463
Milwaukee 44 45 .494 4.5 29-19 15-26 407 474
Houston 43 45 .489 5 28-21 15-24 403 428
Chicago Cubs 33 54 .379 14.5 14-25 19-29 343 444
Pittsburgh 30 60 .333 19 20-24 10-36 411 471

Candy Cummings
07-09-2006, 05:13 PM
1 year ago tomorrow and today.


NL Central

Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RA
St. Louis Cardinals 88 56 32 0 .636 - 447 340
Houston Astros 88 44 43 1 .506 11.5 365 362
Chicago Cubs 87 43 44 0 .494 12.5 394 394
Milwaukee Brewers 88 42 46 0 .477 14.0 392 374
Pittsburgh Pirates 87 39 48 0 .448 16.5 365 403
Cincinnati Reds 89 35 53 1 .398 21.0 434 518

CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA
St. Louis 47 39 .547 - 26-17 21-22 433 420
Cincinnati 45 44 .506 3.5 20-22 25-22 448 463
Milwaukee 44 45 .494 4.5 29-19 15-26 407 474
Houston 43 45 .489 5 28-21 15-24 403 428
Chicago Cubs 33 54 .379 14.5 14-25 19-29 343 444
Pittsburgh 30 60 .333 19 20-24 10-36 411 471



That pretty much does say it all. I think this is a .500 team, but I have really enjoyed the first half of the season. We've played competitive ball, and that's what we were primarily looking for this year. Do we have weaknesses? Yes, plenty of them.

reds44
07-09-2006, 05:15 PM
1 year ago tomorrow and today.


NL Central

Team Name G W L T PCT GB RS RA
St. Louis Cardinals 88 56 32 0 .636 - 447 340
Houston Astros 88 44 43 1 .506 11.5 365 362
Chicago Cubs 87 43 44 0 .494 12.5 394 394
Milwaukee Brewers 88 42 46 0 .477 14.0 392 374
Pittsburgh Pirates 87 39 48 0 .448 16.5 365 403
Cincinnati Reds 89 35 53 1 .398 21.0 434 518

CENTRAL W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA
St. Louis 47 39 .547 - 26-17 21-22 433 420
Cincinnati 45 44 .506 3.5 20-22 25-22 448 463
Milwaukee 44 45 .494 4.5 29-19 15-26 407 474
Houston 43 45 .489 5 28-21 15-24 403 428
Chicago Cubs 33 54 .379 14.5 14-25 19-29 343 444
Pittsburgh 30 60 .333 19 20-24 10-36 411 471


I didn't realize how bad we actually were last year.

KronoRed
07-09-2006, 05:17 PM
Look at the RA from last year..yikes.

Tony Cloninger
07-09-2006, 05:28 PM
How is this roster in shambles, unless you mean the bullpen?


I would rather have Jose Vizcaino than Juan Castro or RA.
Denorfia instead of Valentin.
But really that is not that big of a deal......except of course when RA and JC start more than once a week. ;)

Bullpen wise.....shambles.....scorched earth..... black hole...whateever you want to call it.

WK can keep trying to get more relievers.....and i have no problem with EG....but for the kids to come up from AAA-AA....this team will have to be out of it. They barely trust Belisle.



I always subscribe to the Bluto Blutowski method...... "Start drinking heavily."

Falls City Beer
07-09-2006, 05:51 PM
Look--I appreciate the stiff upper lip crowd and the Zen aggregate on this board not wanting to hear about the very real deficiencies on this ballclub. I do. Honestly.

But that doesn't mean very real and very unaddressed issues don't exist on this club. And it doesn't mean that outside of the Pena/Arroyo deal, Wayne Krivsky hasn't been operating under the Jim Bowden Bargain Basement low-risk, deceptively high reward (Phillips, Ross) rubric of GM-ing for the last 3 1/2 months. Further, it doesn't mean that Krivsky didn't also have a draft that in no way outpaced DanO's of a year ago; in fact, one could make a very sound case that DanO's 2005 draft was better.

I really like Castellini and I think he'll deliver this team to a championship if he can find the right guy. But I'm just not sure Krivsky's the guy. It's possible he can morph into that guy; after all, he's only technically been a GM for what, 5 months? There's room to learn there.

But the early returns say he's been surprisingly and unsettlingly timid...and weirdly reactionary. For instance, can someone point to an overarching "plan" in Krivsky's methods? Milton's still here. Junior's still here. The entire geriatric bullpen is here sans White and Hammond.

Now I fully anticipate a raft of threads saying things ranging from "Hey, it's baseball--it beats a blank" to "Hey, they're better than last year," and that's fine--both sentiments are 100% correct. But there's a subset of fan who wants more; and I proudly number myself among them. I want to win. And I believe that this team can win this division this year, and next year as well. All it's going to take is guts and execution.

Johnny Vander m
07-09-2006, 06:11 PM
RFS62, When the shipment of medicine comes in give it to these three first;

The line up *****ers.
The castro bashers.
the EE worshipers.

They are in dire need of it to ease the pain.:evil:

Big Klu
07-09-2006, 06:21 PM
Amen to that.

Everyone here knows I need it.
:laugh:

You do realize that Edwin is not going to be in the lineup for the next three days. :D

reds44
07-09-2006, 06:27 PM
You do realize that Edwin is not going to be in the lineup for the next three days. :D
He's not?

OMG FIRE THAT IDIOT NARRON!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


;)

Larkin Fan
07-09-2006, 06:34 PM
I'm thinking Xanax might be an even better solution.

Big Klu
07-09-2006, 06:42 PM
He's not?

OMG FIRE THAT IDIOT NARRON!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


;)


Like I said before, you realize that Jerry isn't messing with Edwin--he's messing with YOU! This is all part of Narron's grand scheme to drive you, reds44, into the looney bin! :devil:

Big Klu
07-09-2006, 06:46 PM
I'm thinking Xanax might be an even better solution.

I was thinking that lithium would be a good choice! :D

Falls City Beer
07-09-2006, 06:57 PM
Maybe Krivsky can pick up some meds to improve concentration and impulsiveness.

westofyou
07-09-2006, 07:07 PM
But the early returns say he's been surprisingly and unsettlingly timid...and weirdly reactionary.

You mean returns on how you read the cards right?

For the record I think he's doing pretty good making a vase out of Play-Doh and feeding the masses with a Ez-Bake Oven.

Compared to the moves that the past 5 Reds GM's made in their first 6 months it's not too bad IMO.

But then again I (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=921786&postcount=61) predicted even less wins then you (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=921755&postcount=32) did and I'm happy with the season so far so go figure.

http://baseballminutia.com/blog/2006/06/29/reds-history-hows-wayne-measuring-up/

Where does this current GM stand when measured against his predecessors in the GM office in Cincinnati?

Since the state of the game off the field has changed so much in the last 30 years it wouldn’t be fair to measure Krivsky against all the GM’s in Reds history, so well just slide back 22 years and start our study with the man who replaced Bob Howsam (when he left for the second time) Bill Bergesch and we’ll run it right up to the recently lauded Krivsky and his incomplete run at restoring confidence in a team that has lost more than just games the past five years.

Bill Bergesch - Hired October 1984
Former Title - Director of Baseball Operations - New York Yankees.

First Move - Keefe Cato to San Diego for Darren Burroghs. Bergesch made only 2 trades in his first 8 months on the job.

Most Famous Player Traded First - Cesar Cedeno was traded to the Cardinals in August for Mark Jackson. Cesar was out of the game the next year but strung together 76 magical at bats for the NL pennant winners.

Most Famous Trade Pickup - Buddy Bell, 10 months in to the job Bergesch made his first significant trade and it was steal, trading Duane Walker and Jeff Russell in mid July of 1985.

Best Young Player Pickup - Slow on the draw was Bergesch’s main problem it took him 15 months to pick up a future impact Red, once again though it was steal, with the Reds relinquishing Wayne Krenchicki and ending up with Norm Charlton.

See Ya - Who’d he cut? - Every GM usually comes aboard with a plan and often that doesn’t include the former regimes players. So the axe often swings freely, in Bergesch’s tenure the axe took down longtime Reds Frank Pastore.

Biggest Mistake - Being slow with the trade trigger was Bill’s biggest headache and it would eventually cost him his job as he held on to both the Reds shortstop prospects and the quickly multiplying outfield prospects.

First Draft - Bergesch endeared himself to Reds fans forever by being the GM who chose Barry Larkin with the 4th pick in the 1985 draft.

Murray Cook - Hired October 1987
Former Title: Montreal GM and Yankee Employee.

First Move - - Unlike his predecessor Cook started off with a bang, trading Kurt Stillwell for left hander Danny Jackson, who would be a major player for the Reds for the next few years.

Most Famous Player Traded First - Targeting pitching was Cooks first order of business, so he moved Dave Parker for Jose Rijo and Tim Birtsas.

Most Famous Trade Pickup - Danny Jackson was an established starter who immediately strengthened the Reds weak staff.

Best Young Player Pickup - Jose Rijo would go on to be one of the best pitchers in team history.

See Ya - Who’d he cut? - Cook was the man who sent Tom Hume into the coaching profession in the autumn of 1987.

Biggest Mistake - Saddled without a first round choice in the 1988 draft Cook took Jeff Branson with the number one pick, in a draft that was largely disappointing from top to bottom for the Reds.

First Draft - See above.

Bob Quinn - Hired October 1989
Former Title: Yankee Employee

First Move - - It almost seems common with Reds general managers, the first deal is usually a deal for arms, and in Cook’s case it was no different, in December he sent John Franco to the Mets for Randy Meyers and Kip Gross.

Most Famous Player Traded First - John Franco was the Reds closer and a fan favorite, evidently he was easy to replace.

Most Famous Trade Pickup - Billy Hatcher/Bill Doran. Not looking for big name players Quinn’s biggest names acquired would both play roles in the 1990 teams run for the title, and neither would cost more then a middling prospect.

Best Young Player Pickup - Quinn’s 2nd trade was a steal for the Reds as Quinn picked the pocket of his former employers the Yankees and traded Tim Leary and Van Snider for Hal Morris.

See Ya - Who’d he cut? - Quinn was the man responsible finally getting Dave Collins of the field of play.

Biggest Mistake - The man drove the bus to the World Series in his first season, we’ll give this one a pass.

First Draft - In Quinn’s first draft he created what some consider a cardinal sin, he drafted a catcher with his first pick. Holy Steve Swisher, it didn’t fail… nor impress many either.

Jim Bowden - Hired October 1993
Former Title: Reds Front Office (Via Yankees and Pirates)

First Move - Jim Bowden tried to reverse the jinx of the first round catcher pick by jettisoning Dan Wilson to the Mariners for Eric Hanson and Bret Boone.

Most Famous Player Traded First - Bowden’s most famous player move was a telltale sign of an obsession that still follows him to this day, the swift centerfielder type is Jim Bowden’s dream player, the man obviously has a weakness for centerfielders and his career is littered with examples, it starts with his first trade as a Reds GM when he traded Roberto Kelly for Deion Sanders, thus beginning the long back and forth between Deion and the city.

Most Famous Trade Pickup - Deion Sanders was celebrity, and a so-so baseball player, he made a splash in Cincinnati time and time again, but no more then when he first showed up.

Best Young Player Pickup - Bret Boone anchored the Reds middle infield until 1998 and helped the Reds get Denny Neagle for the 1999 team.

See Ya - Who’d he cut? - Bowden didn’t see a future in Chris Sabo and at over 3 million bucks a year he was willing to let him walk.

Biggest Mistake - Beginning the infatuation dance with Deion Sanders, a man who would visit the Reds roster 3 separate times and only give back a .665 OPS in over 900 trips to the plate.

First Draft - Bowden’s first pick was C. J. Nitkowski, a player later traded for David Wells in the midst of the 1995 pennant race.

Dan O’Brien - Hired October 2003
Former Title: Assistant GM Texas Rangers

First Move - - In the first 3 months of O’Brien’s tenure he signed 21 free agents before he focused on the Reds current roster. His first trade was Chris Reitsma for Jung Bong and Bubba Nelson.

Most Famous Player Traded First - Possessing the same paralysis that Bergesch had O’Brien can only claim to have moved pitchers in his first year and they were Reitsma, Jones and Lidle. By Default Reitsma is the most famous.

Most Famous Trade Pickup - Since he was so fun in the trade market to find his most famous pickup you’d have to point to the free agent signing of Cory Lidle, a Christmas present most Reds fans would rather forget.

Best Young Player Pickup - From where we sit right now this could only be Elizardo Ramirez, who 11 starts into the 2006 season has 67 IP and a 3.61 ERA

See Ya - Who’d he cut? - O’Brien shed the team of two Bowden’s last busts, Russ Branyan and Ryan Dempster.

Biggest Mistake - Fear, inertia, not realizing that the hub of the wheel was the major league club, not the minor leagues.

First DraftHomer Bailey, RHP, Texas HS, Currently making his way up the ladder, cross your fingers.

Wayne Krivsky - Hired February 2006
Former Title: Assistant GM Minnesota Twins

First Move - - In his fifth week as GM, Krivsky pulled the trigger, taking care of the long suffering outfield log jam and getting the Reds an established starter when he got Arroyo and CASH for Wily Mo Pena

Most Famous Player Traded First - See Above

Most Famous Trade Pickup - Bronson Arroyo gave the Reds a steady starter to go with Aaron Harang and man who has experienced what it’s like to be on a winning team is always good the clubhouse.

Best Young Player Pickup - Brandon Phillips has solidified the middle infield defense and added athleticism and speed to a team that could use it.

See Ya - Who’d he cut? - Krivsky cut bait on numerous Reds, Hudson, Bong, Nelson and even a message cut with an overweight Hancock (Jury still out on that)

Biggest Mistake - Many would picking up Castro or Hatteberg, but until either burn down the clubhouse or worse I’ll pretend that Hatteberg is Casey Lite and that Castro is imparting some wisdom to the younger infielders on the Reds.

First Draft - Drew Stubbs, CF University of Texas, can field, and has pop and a ceiling.

So, there we have it. Measure it, ponder it, and remember it. In a year we’ll have a bigger picture of where the Reds are heading and how these moves affect them and the future of the team.



BTW after 5 season of this some folks expect a lot right away.


2001 5th 66 96 .407 27
2002 3rd 78 84 .481 19
2003 5th 69 93 .426 19
2004 4th 76 86 .469 29
2005 5th 73 89 .451 27

NYMoose
07-09-2006, 07:32 PM
I'm thinking Xanax might be an even better solution.


Sorry no Xanax, but you are correct. Lots of venlafaxine/Effexor though.

oregonred
07-09-2006, 07:32 PM
Great improvement over last year's royal mess but a 1-8 finish to a bunch of average teams and limping no, crashing into the AS Break was a huge missed opportunity and douse of reality. The break simply came a week too late...

That's two 1-8 stretches over the last month. The last 1-8 stretch after the amazing Dunn walk off GS high couldn't have been envisioned in anything but a nightmare. The pitching ERA is moving rapidly from middle of the NL pack to the high 4's and the team's leader (KGJ) seemingly gets hot for a game then goes through a week at a time where he contributes virtually nothing to the cause. 4-8 in Harang/Arroyo's last 12 starts. Ouch...

IN a normal year, we'd be toast. This year the NL Central is wide open and an 87-88 win WC isn't out of the question. We also seem to have a competent F.O for the first time in a generation. However, This moody team has to find a way to roll off a 7-8 game winning streak or have a solid three weeks of 13-6 type baseball somewhere along the line soon and I'm not optimistic it will happen anytime in the next 45 days.

When the staff ERA was holding in the 4.3 range (and having two above average starters as something refreshingly different from the last ten years) I thought the team could hang in all season during a weak NL year. I think we're looking right now at a team much more likely to find 75 wins then 87.

I do have confidence for 2007 and the talent infusion of Arroyo/Phillips means good things going forward. I'm comvinced Krivsky will get the pen much improved and find another competent starter in the offseason. It will take some serious magic to fix/duct tape this team's current flaws on the fly.

Unassisted
07-09-2006, 07:36 PM
I'm not a pharmaceutical rep, but I still have some leftover Redsium from 2004 that hasn't expired yet. :D

http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/5599/redsium7sx.jpg at http://img130.imageshack.us/img130/5599/redsium7sx.jpg makes a great avatar.

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/6260/redsium3nq.png at http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/6260/redsium3nq.png spices up the saddest post.

KronoRed
07-09-2006, 07:49 PM
I'm thinking Xanax might be an even better solution.
Wonder if our supplier can get that ;)

ochre
07-09-2006, 08:00 PM
After watching the bullpen the first half of the season, I could use some Zantac.

Larkin Fan
07-09-2006, 09:23 PM
After watching the bullpen the first half of the season, I could use some Zantac.

Prescription strength, I'm sure.

Edskin
07-09-2006, 10:35 PM
For me, it's not so much about this year-- I do think with a few moves we could seriously contend for the wild card-- assuming 86-88 wins gets it done. I do think it's POSSIBLE we could bottle it up for awhile and make a run IF we make some nice deals.

But the bigger issue to me is our overall future. I see not only a huge void in the bullpen, but a still a major problem in the rotation. 3/5 of our rotation is pure junk, and Homer is the only savior on the horizon. Even if he pans out, we'll still need some more talent there. Arroyo has pitched WELL above his career numbers thus far-- he is NOT an ace-- we can NOT build a staff around him. I'm THRILLED we've found a legit #2-3 type starter in Bronson and he is one of the few guys I would call "untouchable," but we're kidding ourselves if we think he's the guy that's eventually going to pitch game 1 of the WS for us.

Offenisvely, our future is cloudy, IMO. We don't really have a long-term answer at 1B or at Catcher. Our CF is on his last-legs and our SS may have already had his career year. Many people are banking on Phillips as the answer at 2B, and I certainly hope he is, but we are putting a lot of eggs into that basket as well.

The bottom line is that Castellini and Krivsky took over an absolute mess. A total roster deabcle. They've done a nice little job of adding pieces to make it competent, but in a way, all they've really done so far is put a band-aid on a gaping head wound. Slowly, the blood is beginning to seep through.

If you look at the Braves-- they have all these young guys (McCann, Francouer, Langerhans, etc....) all coming up at the SAME TIME. You look at the Marlins and you see a ton of under-25 talent spread throughout the roster. You look at the Reds and you see a mish-mash of old and young. A mish-mash of has-beens, one-year-wonders, legitimately good players, and guys that may or may not make it. The roster is just a random jumble, IMO.

The goal is not to become a consistent 84 win team. The goal is to win championships, and I just hope that we aren't SO despeate to not suck that we lose sight of the main goals.

VR
07-10-2006, 12:18 AM
great title '62

Even after the crash of the last few weeks, there is something different about this team...I have more confidence than the past five, because they've got a much better balance than in years past. Only a few moves really make sense to compete until October.


Get a starter. Jason Schmidt will do. Get Claussen back healthy after the break.

Get a reliever. The pen is almost palatable now, replace Weathers with some quality...and life gets better quickly.

Aurilia/LaRue/Lopez/Griffey.....maybe even Kearns. Use as least two of the four to get the above accomplished. Bring up Denorfia. Jettisoning two or more also help get the lineup rotation down to 10 or 11, not 12.

go team

oregonred
07-10-2006, 02:23 AM
The bottom line is that Castellini and Krivsky took over an absolute mess. A total roster deabcle. They've done a nice little job of adding pieces to make it competent, but in a way, all they've really done so far is put a band-aid on a gaping head wound. Slowly, the blood is beginning to seep through.

If you look at the Braves-- they have all these young guys (McCann, Francouer, Langerhans, etc....) all coming up at the SAME TIME. You look at the Marlins and you see a ton of under-25 talent spread throughout the roster. You look at the Reds and you see a mish-mash of old and young. A mish-mash of has-beens, one-year-wonders, legitimately good players, and guys that may or may not make it. The roster is just a random jumble, IMO.

The goal is not to become a consistent 84 win team. The goal is to win championships, and I just hope that we aren't SO despeate to not suck that we lose sight of the main goals.

It is lot less of a mess now then it was before Wayne K took over thanks to the Phillips/Arroyo moves.

IMO, we're not far away going forward: EE, BP, Lopez, Votto look to be a potentially very, very good IF unit. Young, talented and cheap for many years. Dunn is a stud or a huge trading chip. Freel is cheap. Denofria/Freel could easily fill in for a trade of one of Kearns or KGJ.

Arroyo + Harang = 2/5s of a decent rotation. Relatively young and cheap. Coffey will be fine in the right role. The pen will get fixed when Krivsky has a full offseason to get things done. His big challenge will be finding another starter (or two) one above average and one at least league average. Ramirez is pretty key -- if he's at least an average starter then the puzzle for '07/'08 gets a lot better. The key will be Wayne K's ability to unload some of the ~$25M in deadweight (Milton/KGJ/Larue) that may have some value to a club under the right circumstances. Bailey is an ace in the hole that may actually provide some serious help in 2H '07 -- looks much less of a pipe dream then a couple months ago.

redsmetz
07-10-2006, 08:53 AM
sweet sassy molassy, people!!!!

Kudos for this classic line! In talking with my in-laws in Missouri, they're all adither over the Cardinals and both of our teams bending over backwards to not be in 1st place. This year is gravy (or sweet sassy molassy, maybe?), look to the future.

RFS62
07-10-2006, 08:59 AM
sweet sassy molassy, people!!!!



Kudos for this classic line! In talking with my in-laws in Missouri, they're all adither over the Cardinals and both of our teams bending over backwards to not be in 1st place. This year is gravy (or sweet sassy molassy, maybe?), look to the future.



I believe I first heard that phrase from Raisor. After seeing his babe entourage, most of us here try to be like him as much as possible.

GAC
07-10-2006, 09:06 PM
I didn't realize how bad we actually were last year.

2 years ago we were 47-41 at the break..... and the rest is history. ;)

GAC
07-10-2006, 09:12 PM
I think we need a separate forum.

Maybe call it "SeeingRedZone"? :evil:

Ltlabner
07-10-2006, 09:22 PM
But that doesn't mean very real and very unaddressed issues don't exist on this club. And it doesn't mean that outside of the Pena/Arroyo deal, Wayne Krivsky hasn't been operating under the Jim Bowden Bargain Basement low-risk, deceptively high reward (Phillips, Ross) rubric of GM-ing for the last 3 1/2 months. Further, it doesn't mean that Krivsky didn't also have a draft that in no way outpaced DanO's of a year ago; in fact, one could make a very sound case that DanO's 2005 draft was better.

FCB, you contine to say this inspite of the plain fact that no real trades are available in the first months of the season. All that is available are the castoffs and the low risk "take a chance" guys. Unless you want to give away a huge amount of tallent for little return (imagine the freak out here if that happened....) you don't have many options. Now we are into "trade season" so to speak. If he continues to bring in meah players then we have a problem.


Look--I appreciate the stiff upper lip crowd and the Zen aggregate on this board not wanting to hear about the very real deficiencies on this ballclub. I do. Honestly. But that doesn't mean very real and very unaddressed issues don't exist on this club.

Could you be a little more dismissive? Because some of us don't chose to loose our minds over each and every decision that is made, or don't yell and scream over real or precieved injustices does not mean we don't plainly see the weaknesses on this team. Bullpen, starters, defense, streaky offense, never ending line up changes. It's all there for anybody with a modicum of baseball knowledge to see. Don't just blow us off as "pie in the sky" because we don't cry doom and gloom with every post.


But the early returns say he's been surprisingly and unsettlingly timid...and weirdly reactionary. For instance, can someone point to an overarching "plan" in Krivsky's methods? Milton's still here. Junior's still here. The entire geriatric bullpen is here sans White and Hammond.

Milton? Who's going to take him? Jr, no body is going to go for a blockbuster trade for someone like JR (age and contract) in the first few months of the season. While I would love to see the entire bullpen sent packing right now, you can't responibly DFA the entire staff. There aren't any arms in AAA that would be any better (despite the "it can't be any worse" crowd) so who pitches? Javy?

So no, I don't agree that he doesn't have a plan. I just think he's not the sort to go wildly trading and making moves when there isn't a likely chance he'll get anything in return or hurt the team in the long run. And because you don't see evidence of a plan does not mean there isn't one....you just aren't privy to it, or understand it.

RFS62
07-10-2006, 09:25 PM
FCB, you contine to say this inspite of the plain fact that no real trades are available in the first months of the season. All that is available are the castoffs and the low risk "take a chance" guys. Unless you want to give away a huge amount of tallent for little return (imagine the freak out here if that happened....) you don't have many options. Now we are into "trade season" so to speak. If he continues to bring in meah players then we have a problem.

Could you be a little more dismissive? Because some of us don't chose to loose our minds over each and every decision that is made, or don't yell and scream over real or precieved injustices does not mean we don't plainly see the weaknesses on this team. Bullpen, starters, defense, streaky offense, never ending line up changes. It's all there for anybody with a modicum of baseball knowledge to see. Don't just blow us off as "pie in the sky" because we don't cry doom and gloom with every post.

Milton? Who's going to take him? Jr, no body is going to go for a blockbuster trade for someone like JR (age and contract) in the first few months of the season. While I would love to see the entire bullpen sent packing right now, you can't responibly DFA the entire staff. There aren't any arms in AAA that would be any better (despite the "it can't be any worse" crowd) so who pitches? Javy?

So no, I don't agree that he doesn't have a plan. I just think he's not the sort to go wildly trading and making moves when there isn't a likely chance he'll get anything in return or hurt the team in the long run. And because you don't see evidence of a plan does not mean there isn't one....you just aren't privy to it, or understand it.



Awesome post.

:beerme:

Falls City Beer
07-10-2006, 10:05 PM
FCB, you contine to say this inspite of the plain fact that no real trades are available in the first months of the season. All that is available are the castoffs and the low risk "take a chance" guys. Unless you want to give away a huge amount of tallent for little return (imagine the freak out here if that happened....) you don't have many options. Now we are into "trade season" so to speak. If he continues to bring in meah players then we have a problem.



Could you be a little more dismissive? Because some of us don't chose to loose our minds over each and every decision that is made, or don't yell and scream over real or precieved injustices does not mean we don't plainly see the weaknesses on this team. Bullpen, starters, defense, streaky offense, never ending line up changes. It's all there for anybody with a modicum of baseball knowledge to see. Don't just blow us off as "pie in the sky" because we don't cry doom and gloom with every post.



Milton? Who's going to take him? Jr, no body is going to go for a blockbuster trade for someone like JR (age and contract) in the first few months of the season. While I would love to see the entire bullpen sent packing right now, you can't responibly DFA the entire staff. There aren't any arms in AAA that would be any better (despite the "it can't be any worse" crowd) so who pitches? Javy?

So no, I don't agree that he doesn't have a plan. I just think he's not the sort to go wildly trading and making moves when there isn't a likely chance he'll get anything in return or hurt the team in the long run. And because you don't see evidence of a plan does not mean there isn't one....you just aren't privy to it, or understand it.


They should cut Milton. I've been saying that for months on end. He's a sunk cost. He hurts the team.

Pay half of Junior's salary, and I guarantee somebody takes him. And probably sends us a decent prospect or two in return.

Look, I wasn't the one starting a thread railing on the "pie in the sky" gang; the thread called the malcontents essentially loonies needing psychoreactives. Think about that before you jump me for defending what I consider to be a legitimate position: confusion over the direction of the club.

In fact, I dare anyone to try to illustrate the plan Krivsky's executing--heck, even guess at it. It's not to shed the oldsters; it's not to play the kids; it's not to draft pitchers who can make an impact in a year or two; it's certainly to get more "defense-minded." That much we can say with certainty. Beyond that, I'm at a loss to connect the dots of a plan.

Krivsky's not without his credits; he's made two shrewd moves: Arroyo and Phillips (though I still hesitate to get really excited about him--his numbers are beginning to drop and he's always been a BA-driven OBP guy). And he's also made a bunch of anonymous/pointless deck-chair arrangements. Now we get to see what the guy does in the trade season. I'm very curious, but if I had to guess at his next move, right now, I'm going to say I'm probably going to be somewhat disappointed--if the last number of moves are any indication. But we shall see.

Ltlabner
07-10-2006, 10:18 PM
They should cut Milton. I've been saying that for months on end. He's a sunk cost. He hurts the team.

Yea...eat the whole contract instead of trying to get something/anything in return. That will really help the team in the long run.


Look, I wasn't the one starting a thread railing on the "pie in the sky" gang; True, but you did post a reply that was arrogently stating that people are "pie in the sky" (and in fact have just stated the same thing again in this reply) as if the "whole team sucks" crowd have a corner on "realilistic thinking" or "objective thought". You know it is possible to see the weaknesses in a team while at the same time actually enjoying the game. Being negative does not automatically imbue someone with a corner on the logic market.


I'm going to say I'm probably going to be somewhat disappointed Gee...there's a real shocker. I guess anything besides totally perfection is just pure crap and shouldn't be enjoyed at all? Rubbish.

But I do agree with you that the next few weeks/months will be a true test for The Kriv. I'm far more interested in the moves he makes in the comming weeks that I would ever be in the piddly moves that one is limited to in the begining of the year. Let's hope we are both happy when all is said and done.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2006, 10:26 PM
Yea...eat the whole contract instead of trying to get something/anything in return. That will really help the team in the long run.

True, but you did post a reply that was arrogently stating that people are "pie in the sky" (and in fact have just stated the same thing again in this reply) as if the "whole team sucks" crowd have a corner on "realilistic thinking" or "objective thought". You know it is possible to see the weaknesses in a team while at the same time actually enjoying the game. Being negative does not automatically imbue someone with a corner on the logic market.

Gee...there's a real shocker. I guess anything besides totally perfection is just pure crap and shouldn't be enjoyed at all? Rubbish.

But I do agree with you that the next few weeks/months will be a true test for The Kriv. I'm far more interested in the moves he makes in the comming weeks that I would ever be in the piddly moves that one is limited to in the begining of the year. Let's hope we are both happy when all is said and done.


You yourself said, "Milton? Who's going to take him?"

I agree. No one is. So put a fresh bootprint on his ass and tell him not to send for money.

There's something to be said about doing the right thing by the fans and getting rid of an embarrassment for them.

And I do enjoy the team and the game. But what I'm seeing right now are a bunch of Bowden Specials, low-risk, low-reward pointless moves. Boldness alone will turn this franchise around, not "low-risk, low-reward," not "low-risk, slim shot at high-reward." "High-risk, high-reward" is the path: Arroyo for Pena was "high-risk, high-reward." I honestly don't care if a few of said moves backfire. I really don't. I expect some will. But Chick for Guardado is not getting it done, in any way.

westofyou
07-10-2006, 11:38 PM
They should cut Milton. I've been saying that for months on end. He's a sunk cost. He hurts the team.

Pay half of Junior's salary, and I guarantee somebody takes him. And probably sends us a decent prospect or two in return.

It's so easy when it's not your money isn't it?

George Foster
07-10-2006, 11:44 PM
You yourself said, "Milton? Who's going to take him?"

I agree. No one is. So put a fresh bootprint on his ass and tell him not to send for money.

There's something to be said about doing the right thing by the fans and getting rid of an embarrassment for them.

And I do enjoy the team and the game. But what I'm seeing right now are a bunch of Bowden Specials, low-risk, low-reward pointless moves. Boldness alone will turn this franchise around, not "low-risk, low-reward," not "low-risk, slim shot at high-reward." "High-risk, high-reward" is the path: Arroyo for Pena was "high-risk, high-reward." I honestly don't care if a few of said moves backfire. I really don't. I expect some will. But Chick for Guardado is not getting it done, in any way.

I agree with your concern about K. What is the plan for THIS year, young, old? Their first pick in the draft was a "scrappy center-fielder?" Does he have conversations with Narron about the line-up, or is he totally hands-off?
It does not matter how K puts together the 25 man roster is Narron does not know how to put together a line-up every night. Narron was quoted saying Sunday before the "call-it-in-game,"...."it's hard to have a every-day line-up when you have so many guys that could start everyday." Really?

How is K addressing this? Does he agree with Narron. Why did he wait until 80 games into the season to get us a closer? What are his plans for Denafora? The jury is still out on K. Maybe he thought there was no way we would be in contention this year and it cought him off guard.

Ltlabner
07-11-2006, 08:22 AM
Why did he wait until 80 games into the season to get us a closer? What are his plans for Denafora? The jury is still out on K. Maybe he thought there was no way we would be in contention this year and it cought him off guard.

Why did he wait...because no other team is willing to trade away a closer in the first few months of the season because they all think they are in contention. So unless you are willing to serriously overpay for one, the options at that time are very, very limited.

lollipopcurve
07-11-2006, 08:41 AM
It could be January 5th and 17 degrees outside.

Then again, the weather never changes in some regions of Redszone.

GAC
07-11-2006, 08:44 AM
It's so easy when it's not your money isn't it?

Exactly. And simply giving Milton the boot and paying half of Jr's contract is a huge sum of money, not just for the Reds, but most ML teams.

And who do we put in Milton's place in the rotation? You sure don't have any money to spend on anyone after the above transaction, and as someone has already stated, this "anyone will do" mentality just doesn't cut it period!

If people will pick up Williams and Hammond (and I realize it was low cost), then I'm sure we can find a candidate for Milton, who can afford the risk.

Calling Omar Minaya! :lol:

oregonred
07-11-2006, 01:19 PM
Exactly. And simply giving Milton the boot and paying half of Jr's contract is a huge sum of money, not just for the Reds, but most ML teams.

And who do we put in Milton's place in the rotation? You sure don't have any money to spend on anyone after the above transaction, and as someone has already stated, this "anyone will do" mentality just doesn't cut it period!

If people will pick up Williams and Hammond (and I realize it was low cost), then I'm sure we can find a candidate for Milton, who can afford the risk.

Calling Omar Minaya! :lol:

Cut Milton and in the Reds present case -- Say hello to your 4th starter Joe Mays and your 5th starter ?????

Uncle Milty blows chunks a lot for sure and the day his contract is off the books will be a party, but unlike a lot of the DFA's and 5th starter fodder out there, he can actually give you a flash like late May into June where he went a month with 5-6 solid outings in a row (8 IP, 3 hitter vs. Webb, blanking the Cards, beating Zambrano at Wrigley, should have beat Contreras save for a gas can pen...). You still may have a chance to get a good chunk of that 8.5M off the books if he does anything decent in July/August -- heck even the Mets have Lima time in their rotation right now.

registerthis
07-11-2006, 02:24 PM
You yourself said, "Milton? Who's going to take him?"

I agree. No one is. So put a fresh bootprint on his ass and tell him not to send for money.

That's just silly.

Rick White, of all people, got picked up by the Phils. And Milton has certainly pitched better than Rick White. Someone, somewhere will take Milton. We may not get a lot for him, we may have to pitch in on his contract, but some pitching-starved team in a pennant race will bite the bullet on him.

No way, no how does Milton get DFA'd. He's owed way too much money, and there are too many teams short on pitching talent.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2006, 02:29 PM
That's just silly.

Rick White, of all people, got picked up by the Phils. And Milton has certainly pitched better than Rick White. Someone, somewhere will take Milton. We may not get a lot for him, we may have to pitch in on his contract, but some pitching-starved team in a pennant race will bite the bullet on him.

No way, no how does Milton get DFA'd. He's owed way too much money, and there are too many teams short on pitching talent.

Then pay some team his whole salary and get back an interesting prospect for him. Just get rid of him. Belisle or Germano WILL put up better numbers than he could over the course of a season.

registerthis
07-11-2006, 02:33 PM
Then pay some team his whole salary and get back an interesting prospect for him. Just get rid of him. Belisle or Germano WILL put up better numbers than he could over the course of a season.

Perhaps they would. I'd have no problems with the Reds jettisoning Milton. But to flat-out DFA him with so many teams looking for pitching help just doesn't make any sense at all. I don't even think the Reds would have to eat his entire salary.

The_jbh
07-11-2006, 02:36 PM
That's just silly.

Rick White, of all people, got picked up by the Phils. And Milton has certainly pitched better than Rick White. Someone, somewhere will take Milton. We may not get a lot for him, we may have to pitch in on his contract, but some pitching-starved team in a pennant race will bite the bullet on him.

No way, no how does Milton get DFA'd. He's owed way too much money, and there are too many teams short on pitching talent.

Ha i was thinking the exact same thing as I was going down the thread. Someone picked up Rick WHite. There are over 20 pitchers in starting rotations around the league worse than Milton, I guarentee if he could be picked up at a small price monetary wise for free player wise, there'd be atleast 10 teams picking him up. I think we could do worse than Milton in the 4 spot. I do think Germano needs to pitch in the 5 spot though

westofyou
07-11-2006, 02:38 PM
No way, no how does Milton get DFA'd. He's owed way too much money, and there are too many teams short on pitching talent.

Milton is owed about 11.5 million more, Griffey aside from defered payments is getting 18 (I think) The Reds payroll is 59 and some change.

It will never happen in a million years, not even allowing for Griffey excepting a trade or someone giving the Reds 8 million of Griffeys cash owed.

The Reds going to throw away two vets and 21 million owed (not counting deferred) for a couple of low level prospects.

That's 35.5% of this years payroll... it will never happen.

RFS62
07-11-2006, 02:45 PM
That's 35.5% of this years payroll... it will never happen.



Correct.

I think the rash of DFA's started a feeding frenzy of sorts. It's like the new pet term around here.

This ain't "The Apprentice". The Donald isn't gonna say "you're fired".

Big Klu
07-11-2006, 03:01 PM
Correct.

I think the rash of DFA's started a feeding frenzy of sorts. It's like the new pet term around here.

This ain't "The Apprentice". The Donald isn't gonna say "you're fired".

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Nbc_apprentice2_donald_trump.jpeg/200px-Nbc_apprentice2_donald_trump.jpeg

You're DFA'ed! :D

Ltlabner
07-11-2006, 03:11 PM
This ain't "The Apprentice". The Donald isn't gonna say "you're fired".

Dead on...it's a business that runs in the real world, with real dollars (and lots of them) involved. Now a fan can get his/her shorts bunched up and call for sending a player out of town on a rail. We've all been there...."this guy sucks, just send him packing! Trade him for a hotdog vendor to be named later", etc etc.

But said fan has to consider while he/she are in the throws of their emotional tirade, there is a business here to be run. If the Reds DFA's every player the fans didn't like (1) there would be 3 people left to start a given game (2) the entire AAA team would be called up and then people would complain that we are seeing minor league baseball (3) it would put the Reds in a serrious money crunch for the comming years.

Imagine having to pay all these players to mow their grass, or worse, play against us on another team. Oh yea, and you have to pay the players you replace them with! Talk about limiting your resources.

People like to throw around "sunk costs" like a freshman who just went to his first economics class. Here's a definition of sunk costs from about.com: Sunk costs are unrecoverable past expenditures. These should not normally be taken into account when determining whether to continue a project or abandon it, because they cannot be recovered either way. It is a common instinct to count them, however.

So all the people who think we should DFA Milton because we are "going to pay him anyway" are missusing the term "sunk costs". You have to ignore the money already spent (which is the true "sunk cost") and focus on the value you get from the asset (i.e. Milton) in the future.

Does it make sense to eat the contract (which is sizeable) and get limited return amounting to him possibly not loosing a handfull of ballgames in the future? Or does it make more sense to either capture his value by either him providing a service (ie. pitching) or via trade (ie. get a better player(s) with potentially more future value)?

I think it makes far more sense to try to get something out of him rather than pay him to mow his grass or pitch against us on another team (which is what would likely happen if we DFA him).

Sorry for such a long post.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2006, 04:38 PM
Since when is running a baseball club anything like running Microsoft? It's not; they are as dissimilar as two businesses could possibly be.

I'm glad you've morphed my argument into "every player I don't like." I dislike my position being mischaracterized, so I'll wrap up my thought:

Trading Milton and paying almost all or all of his salary and acquiring a prospect makes the organization better. And for a guy who likes the "incremental" improvement of a lastgasper like Guardado, I would think that the "incremental" talent improvement of a good prospect at 9 mill over a bad, old, and irretrievably injured Eric Milton at 9 mill would be good business.

Well, it is good business. It's genius business.

Let your mischaracterization of my position recommence.

Ltlabner
07-11-2006, 04:45 PM
Trading Milton and paying almost all or all of his salary and acquiring a prospect makes the organization better.

That's what I have been saying all along! You were advocating just DFA'ing him and eating the contract without getting anything in return. If the club thinks they can get more value out of paying some/all of the contract, trading him and getting a prospect in return they should do that. If they think they will get more value out of paying him to pitch for them, they should do that.

The last resort should be DFA and get absoutly nothing in return.


Since when is running a baseball club anything like running Microsoft? It's not; they are as dissimilar as two businesses could possibly be.

Basic economics applies to any business, doesn't matter the industry. Besides, my point was that the Reds are a business and people seem to forget that when the advocate DFA'ing 3/4 of the team.

westofyou
07-11-2006, 04:50 PM
Well, it is good business. It's genius business.





They should cut Milton. I've been saying that for months on end. He's a sunk cost. He hurts the team.

Pay half of Junior's salary, and I guarantee somebody takes him. And probably sends us a decent prospect or two in return.

The above says cut Milton outright and deal Griffey and 1/2 his salary for 1-2 prospects. That's a lot of nothing for over 21 million bucks.

I guess genius is really a mallable term.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2006, 04:51 PM
people seem to forget that when the advocate DFA'ing 3/4 of the team.

I'm glad you haven't stopped butchering my position. :)

Look back at the post in response to registerthis; I clarified my position--pay his entire salary and get a prospect in return. It's not ideal obviously, but DFAing him and getting a minor leaguer is the best you're going to do. And could be accomplished AT ANY TIME (don't have to wait till trade season to DFA him and get something in trade) by Krivsky and Co., but no such luck....

Krivsky and Co. are playing Waiting for Godot. Meanwhile, we get to watch his numbers balloon. It's disgraceful.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2006, 04:53 PM
The above says cut Milton outright and deal Griffey and 1/2 his salary for 1-2 prospects. That's a lot of nothing for over 21 million bucks.

I guess genius is really a mallable term.


So getting well below league average for 21 million is just peachy?

Ltlabner
07-11-2006, 05:03 PM
I'm glad you haven't stopped butchering my position.

And where did I say that you specifically were advocating DFA'ing 3/4 of the team? There have been others besides yourself calling for DFA a myrid of players. The bigger point beyond what you think about Milton is that people have become enamored with the idea of just eating contracts and letting people go as a general course of action. It's a topic much more interesting than the one specific player move.

I was refering to the bigger picture with my DFA 3/4 of the team comments not just Milton specifically.

westofyou
07-11-2006, 05:06 PM
So getting well below league average for 21 million is just peachy?
Yeah exactly what I said... now who's misrepresenting?

Move Griffey off CF and your "well below" statement would leak more.

But of course you fail to acknowledge his veto rights on a trade anyway so why even go there.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2006, 05:09 PM
Yeah exactly what I said... now who's misrepresenting?

Move Griffey off CF and your "well below" statement would leak more.

But of course you fail to acknowledge his veto rights on a trade anyway so why even go there.

Sure there are stumbling blocks to the Griffey trade. That's why I didn't press for that one as hard. It's likely futile.

But there's no excuse for Milton still poisoning the well.

Ltlabner
07-11-2006, 05:13 PM
So getting well below league average for 21 million is just peachy?


And which team in MLB fields nothing but above league average players that doesn't have a payroll close to the GDP of a S.American Country?

While I would love to get better production out of Milton, you have to consider the team as a whole. We are getting above league average production from a number of young, cheep players that offsets the drag that is Milton. One could argue that because they play daily and he pitches every 5 games that they more than offset his drag on the winning of the team. Unfortunatly no player or substance known to man can offset the drag on the team that is our bullpen. Denorfia is working around the clock on a solution, but even a man of his super-human skills is struggling with the answer.

Would I like to get the production of Eric Milton in his successful starts? Without a doubt. I think his first few starts after the ASB break will be very telling if he'll provide some adequate pitching for the rest of the year or return to implosion status.

westofyou
07-11-2006, 05:34 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5289#CIN


What I really like about going out and getting Guardado and cutting McCracken are that both moves reflect that GM Wayne Krivsky's not stuck on simply keeping people because they're experienced—these aren't his guys, and the opportunity here is to do something in the standings, not worry about who's on next winter's Christmas card list. The Reds farm system isn't burgeoning with prospects, so he won't be able to acquire help as easily as he did earlier on, when he picked up Brandon Phillips on the cheap. Especially now that he's in the running, you shouldn't expect people to make the transactions equivalent of a housewarming gift.

TC81190
07-12-2006, 05:12 PM
Look--I appreciate the stiff upper lip crowd and the Zen aggregate on this board not wanting to hear about the very real deficiencies on this ballclub. I do. Honestly.

But that doesn't mean very real and very unaddressed issues don't exist on this club. And it doesn't mean that outside of the Pena/Arroyo deal, Wayne Krivsky hasn't been operating under the Jim Bowden Bargain Basement low-risk, deceptively high reward (Phillips, Ross) rubric of GM-ing for the last 3 1/2 months. Further, it doesn't mean that Krivsky didn't also have a draft that in no way outpaced DanO's of a year ago; in fact, one could make a very sound case that DanO's 2005 draft was better.

I really like Castellini and I think he'll deliver this team to a championship if he can find the right guy. But I'm just not sure Krivsky's the guy. It's possible he can morph into that guy; after all, he's only technically been a GM for what, 5 months? There's room to learn there.

But the early returns say he's been surprisingly and unsettlingly timid...and weirdly reactionary. For instance, can someone point to an overarching "plan" in Krivsky's methods? Milton's still here. Junior's still here. The entire geriatric bullpen is here sans White and Hammond.

Now I fully anticipate a raft of threads saying things ranging from "Hey, it's baseball--it beats a blank" to "Hey, they're better than last year," and that's fine--both sentiments are 100% correct. But there's a subset of fan who wants more; and I proudly number myself among them. I want to win. And I believe that this team can win this division this year, and next year as well. All it's going to take is guts and execution.

Yes. While I disagree, taking a chance on a young prospect Brandon Phillips was brilliant. David Ross is smoke and mirrors and the Arroyo trade was a fluke. 9 out of 10 times you do that deal, Arroyo puts up a 4+ ERA.

registerthis
07-12-2006, 05:35 PM
I can't believe the argument for DFA'ing Milton is still being made.

This is the real world, the Reds are not going to eat the $11 million or so that they're still on the hook for on his contract. Not gonna happen, plain and simple. You can pound your head against the wall and decry the lack of production he's provided (which, for a #4 starter on a team woefully short on pitching, has not been as horrid as some make it out to be), but in reality the Reds are either going to ride him out through the remainder of his contract, or they're going to unload him onto a contending team that needs pitching depth.

This DFA stuff is just nonsense.

registerthis
07-12-2006, 05:39 PM
But the early returns say he's been surprisingly and unsettlingly timid...and weirdly reactionary. For instance, can someone point to an overarching "plan" in Krivsky's methods? Milton's still here. Junior's still here. The entire geriatric bullpen is here sans White and Hammond.

And what, precisely, do you want to see done with the geriatric bullpen? There's nothing in the minors that points to any likelihood of increased success there, and Krivsky's acquisitions of Yan and Guardado show that he's at least aware of the problem and is trying to fix it. What, beyond that, do you expect him to do? The trade market for pitching is pitiful, and we still have several weeks to go until the trading deadline, when teams looking to unload start to get desperate.

As far as Junior goes, I'd be very interested to hear the list of teams that would be interested in acquiring an expensive, injury prone outfielder who has a "veto" clause in his contract.

Falls City Beer
07-12-2006, 05:41 PM
I can't believe the argument for DFA'ing Milton is still being made.

This is the real world, the Reds are not going to eat the $11 million or so that they're still on the hook for on his contract. Not gonna happen, plain and simple. You can pound your head against the wall and decry the lack of production he's provided (which, for a #4 starter on a team woefully short on pitching, has not been as horrid as some make it out to be), but in reality the Reds are either going to ride him out through the remainder of his contract, or they're going to unload him onto a contending team that needs pitching depth.

This DFA stuff is just nonsense.

He's horrid and getting worse. His numbers will look like last year's by season's end. With just slightly better OPSA.

So that will mean the Reds have paid him $17 million for 2 seasons of hurting the team.

37red
07-12-2006, 05:41 PM
Soooo buy or sell for this year or for the future?, I forget

Falls City Beer
07-12-2006, 05:44 PM
And what, precisely, do you want to see done with the geriatric bullpen? There's nothing in the minors that points to any likelihood of increased success there, and Krivsky's acquisitions of Yan and Guardado show that he's at least aware of the problem and is trying to fix it. What, beyond that, do you expect him to do? The trade market for pitching is pitiful, and we still have several weeks to go until the trading deadline, when teams looking to unload start to get desperate.

As far as Junior goes, I'd be very interested to hear the list of teams that would be interested in acquiring an expensive, injury prone outfielder who has a "veto" clause in his contract.


Do what the Brewers did--find helpful guys like Shouse from stupid teams like the Rangers.

It's not really the old part that gets me so much, it's the untalented part.

registerthis
07-12-2006, 05:49 PM
So that will mean the Reds have paid him $17 million for 2 seasons of hurting the team.

A) They're going to pay that regardless, so there's no use in arguing from the perspective of how much he's owed. Everyone agrees that he's on an awful contract, Lord knows that's been re-hashed enough times. And that's not the issue here.

B) The "hurting the team" argument doesn't fly either because there's no one waiting in the wings who will necessarily do any better. We have no fifth starter at the moment, and there's next to nothing available by trade (without coughing up some really big guns.) So what it comes to is, we can continue to pay Milton to pitch OK, or we can DFA him and pay him AND pay someone else to pitch OK or worse.

Not gonna happen.

registerthis
07-12-2006, 05:51 PM
Do what the Brewers did--find helpful guys like Shouse from stupid teams like the Rangers.

It's not really the old part that gets me so much, it's the untalented part.

And for every Shouse there are a hundred Brian Rheith's. Anyway, how do we know that Kriv hasn't inquired about similar players from other teams? He scored a hit with Phillips and got lucky with Arroyo, but how many times do you expect lightning to strike?

Falls City Beer
07-12-2006, 05:52 PM
A) They're going to pay that regardless, so there's no use in arguing from the perspective of how much he's owed. Everyone agrees that he's on an awful contract, Lord knows that's been re-hashed enough times. And that's not the issue here.

B) The "hurting the team" argument doesn't fly either because there's no one waiting in the wings who will necessarily do any better. We have no fifth starter at the moment, and there's next to nothing available by trade (without coughing up some really big guns.) So what it comes to is, we can continue to pay Milton to pitch OK, or we can DFA him and pay him AND pay someone else to pitch OK or worse.

Not gonna happen.

I guarantee Belisle or Germano or some other approximation of Ron Villone could do the trick. Plus, the Reds could get a prospect out of it.

registerthis
07-12-2006, 05:53 PM
I guarantee Belisle or Germano or some other approximation of Ron Villone could do the trick. Plus, the Reds could get a prospect out of it.

I don't think that's a guarantee at all. Besides, I'd rather see Beslisle coming out of the pen, where our depth is worse than our rotation.

Additionally, if you're going to move one of them into the rotation, stick them in the 5 spot, where there's an even greater glaring hole than the one that woul dbe created by getting rid of Milton.

Ltlabner
07-12-2006, 06:24 PM
I guarantee Belisle or Germano or some other approximation of Ron Villone could do the trick. Plus, the Reds could get a prospect out of it.


His numbers will look like last year's by season's end


but DFAing him and getting a minor leaguer is the best you're going to do.


Pay half of Junior's salary, and I guarantee somebody takes him.


Belisle or Germano WILL put up better numbers than he could over the course of a season.

FCB, can I borrow your chrystal ball? I have some stocks I need to pick out.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 01:53 AM
FCB, can I borrow your chrystal ball? I have some stocks I need to pick out.

FCB should be a used car salesman. Or at least sit in a Vegas sports book all day with his crystal ball :laugh:

oregonred
07-13-2006, 01:57 AM
A) They're going to pay that regardless, so there's no use in arguing from the perspective of how much he's owed. Everyone agrees that he's on an awful contract, Lord knows that's been re-hashed enough times. And that's not the issue here.

B) The "hurting the team" argument doesn't fly either because there's no one waiting in the wings who will necessarily do any better. We have no fifth starter at the moment, and there's next to nothing available by trade (without coughing up some really big guns.) So what it comes to is, we can continue to pay Milton to pitch OK, or we can DFA him and pay him AND pay someone else to pitch OK or worse.

Not gonna happen.

Bingo, stated my argument much more succinctly :thumbup:



I don't think that's a guarantee at all. Besides, I'd rather see Beslisle coming out of the pen, where our depth is worse than our rotation.

Additionally, if you're going to move one of them into the rotation, stick them in the 5 spot, where there's an even greater glaring hole than the one that woul dbe created by getting rid of Milton.

Exactly. We don't have a suitable #5 to replace maybe the worst starter in the league, let alone talking about DFA'ing our current #4 who has pitching decent in the majority of his starts this season.

Ron Madden
07-13-2006, 06:08 AM
I don't think that's a guarantee at all. Besides, I'd rather see Beslisle coming out of the pen, where our depth is worse than our rotation.

I'd kinda like to see Belisle pitch every now and then.

Narron has more faith in the older vets.

registerthis
07-13-2006, 09:19 AM
I'd kinda like to see Belisle pitch every now and then.

So would I--I don't think he's being used enough out of the pen right now. But that's a Narron issue.