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View Full Version : Time to make the call: Are the Reds buyers or sellers



M2
07-09-2006, 06:54 PM
It's July and Wayne Krivsky's got a tough call to make. I know the Reds are just a tick off the division lead and wild card, but is that a reflection of the team's quality or is it a mirage?

Here's your chance to decide.

reds44
07-09-2006, 06:57 PM
Buyers.

With how pathetic the NL is you have to make a run at it this year. Just don't be stupid about it.

RFS62
07-09-2006, 06:59 PM
Buyers.

The only question is how much to spend.

KronoRed
07-09-2006, 07:00 PM
Smart buyers, don't trade the farm for short term help.

redsmetz
07-09-2006, 07:04 PM
If they can get help for this year, so be it, but don't give away the store. Work towards the future. This year, IMO, is gravy, if we win anything.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2006, 07:08 PM
It's July and Wayne Krivsky's got a tough call to make. I know the Reds are just a tick off the division lead and wild card, but is that a reflection of the team's quality or is it a mirage?

Here's your chance to decide.

Sellers.

This team overachieved incredibly just to get to this point, and the players who carried them here have mostly fallen back to earth (see: Coffey, Todd), are in the process of falling back to earth (see: Arroyo, Bronson and Ramirez, Elizardo), or are due for a bit of a fallback (see: Ross, David).

There are also serious holes in this team in both the bullpen and the rotation. Simply put, there isn't a single proven arm in the bullpen that can be relied upon for 3 outs. It's so laughably bad that the manager is making decisions to send starters out to throw 130+ pitches in a 3 run game rather than give the ball to anyone out there. And, the back end of the rotation is positively nightmarish with some combination of Joe Mays, Eric Milton and Brandon Claussen coming out to pitch 40% of the games.

By conservative estimates, I put this team at needing 4 additional players (1 league-average starter, 2 league average bullpeners, and 1 replacement-level bullpenner). None of those players are at the cusp of making the big leagues in the minors (which is dead at the AAA level), so the Reds will have to trade to get the help. You simply can't find THAT much major league talent midseason -- and even if you could, the cost to acquire it all would make even the most gung-ho members of this board blush.

Sell some veterans -- clear some salary space, and maybe make the right blockbuster deal if it comes along. 2007 is where this team needs to be looking, because it's a long way down the rollercoaster in the 2nd half.

IslandRed
07-09-2006, 07:16 PM
Unless a hot or cold streak makes the choice obvious, I expect them to keep straddling the fence. Krivsky will make what deals he can to improve the club as long as those moves don't touch the core of the club as he sees it for 2007 and beyond -- in other words, no trades of Homer Bailey or Joey Votto for a rent-a-player. At the same time, Castellini wants to win and, more to the point, he wants to convince Cincinnati fans that he wants to win and isn't just giving it lip service. If the line breaks, then fine, wave the white flag, but not until then.

membengal
07-09-2006, 07:43 PM
It's a mirage.

Sellers. And I pray to the deity of my choice that the selling involves, at some point, some of Narron's beloved veterans. His toys must be confiscated for the good of us all.

Redmachine2003
07-09-2006, 08:03 PM
Sell. Bronson is going back to his career avg. sell him while is value is very high. With no bullpen and the lack of a 4 and 5 starter. The lack of minor league talent to trade to improve this team would cost the Reds way too much in the future.

IslandRed
07-09-2006, 08:33 PM
Sell. Bronson is going back to his career avg. sell him while is value is very high.

Trading Arroyo is exactly what the Reds shouldn't do unless they're conceding they don't want to win until 2009. By and large, the Reds' best players are young and under the Reds' control for the next couple of years at least; there's no reason to do a total teardown and punt 2007 and 2008. The situation calls for a renovation, not a demolition.

Jpup
07-09-2006, 08:35 PM
Trading Arroyo is exactly what the Reds shouldn't do unless they're conceding they don't want to win until 2009. By and large, the Reds' best players are young and under the Reds' control for the next couple of years at least; there's no reason to do a total teardown and punt 2007 and 2008. The situation calls for a renovation, not a demolition.

I would trade Arroyo if I could get a haul in return. I'm talking about 2 A+ pitching prospects that would be ready for 2007.

oregonred
07-09-2006, 08:36 PM
Trading Arroyo is exactly what the Reds shouldn't do unless they're conceding they don't want to win until 2009. By and large, the Reds' best players are young and under the Reds' control for the next couple of years at least; there's no reason to do a total teardown and punt 2007 and 2008. The situation calls for a renovation, not a demolition.

Well said. Milton/KGJ/Larue's $25 M payroll anchor is a huge missed opportunity to get whole lot better going into 2007. Fortunately Milton/Larue's burden goes away after next season. If Krivsky can figure out some way to unload a chunk of that mess between now and the end of 2006 then this team goes into 2007 in great shape.

Strikes Out Looking
07-09-2006, 08:39 PM
Can we trade the one who makes the lineup call and other in game decisions for a bucket of used balls? And then bring back the one who brought us to the promised land the last time?

Unassisted
07-09-2006, 08:43 PM
Buyers. It should only take one more good oar to row the boat fast enough to catch St. Louis... unless they buy a new oar, too. :)

Marc D
07-09-2006, 08:47 PM
Sell like there's no tommorrow.

19-8 on May 2nd

26-36 since.

Gallen5862
07-09-2006, 09:03 PM
I voted the Buy and sell option. Buy young players and players to help now and in the future. Sell off any Vets or players that are not expected to help or if what is offered is to good to pass up.

GAC
07-09-2006, 09:23 PM
In order for this team to BUY, they are gonna have to SELL to a certain degree.

And as far as I'm concerned - there isn't too much they can sell off that would really hurt/damage this team in the long run.

I'm really not too concerned about this year. Of course I'd love to see it happen; but I'm not gonna get upset if it doesn't as long as I feel Castellini/Krivsky are moving us in the right direction (and I think they are).

I'm not saying the below are untouchable, but I'd do my best to retain them...

Dunn, Arroyo, Harang, Coffey, Encarnacion, Phillips, Ross.

The rest are fodder IMO. And we are "stuck" with Jr.

Whatever makes it work Wayne. ;)

15fan
07-09-2006, 09:32 PM
You don't pick the year, the year picks you.

Buy.

Red in Chicago
07-09-2006, 09:38 PM
the team needs pitching...trading away arroyo and / or harang only pushes you back a couple of steps...offer up dunn and see what kind of quality pitching you can get for him...and i don't mean prospects...

RedsBaron
07-09-2006, 09:58 PM
In order for this team to BUY, they are gonna have to SELL to a certain degree.

And as far as I'm concerned - there isn't too much they can sell off that would really hurt/damage this team in the long run.

I'm really not too concerned about this year. Of course I'd love to see it happen; but I'm not gonna get upset if it doesn't as long as I feel Castellini/Krivsky are moving us in the right direction (and I think they are).

I'm not saying the below are untouchable, but I'd do my best to retain them...

Dunn, Arroyo, Harang, Coffey, Encarnacion, Phillips, Ross.

The rest are fodder IMO. And we are "stuck" with Jr.

Whatever makes it work Wayne. ;)
I don't know if Coffey and Ross belong on your list, but I otherwise agree. Nobody is untouchable, but the other guys should be players the Reds are very reluctant to lose, absent a great offer.

GAC
07-09-2006, 10:07 PM
I don't know if Coffey and Ross belong on your list, but I otherwise agree. Nobody is untouchable, but the other guys should be players the Reds are very reluctant to lose, absent a great offer.

The only reason I put them on the list is because you need to retain a catcher (obviously), and LaRue IMO is highly expendable (if we can find a suc....errr.... taker).

Out of this BP, Coffey is young and the only one I'd even consider retaining.

Larkin Fan
07-09-2006, 10:20 PM
Buyers without question. This team is almost there and to become sellers at this point would be a travesty.

RBA
07-09-2006, 10:40 PM
Sorry. But I have to go with "SELL". I do agree if we "bought" a couple of pitchers, the Reds do have a great chance of winning the Central/or Wildcard, but beyond that I believe the pennant is out of reach.

Sorry to be down. But the good news is I have been wrong before.

M2
07-09-2006, 10:56 PM
You don't pick the year, the year picks you.

Buy.

I've never really bought into that line of thinking. It always struck me as another way of saying the team can only expect to win by getting extremely lucky.

Anyway, I'm not so sure the year is picking the Reds. Yeah the league is mired in mediocrity, but the Reds still don't strike me as a team likely to take advantage of it.

Personally I'm in favor of option #3. If the team gets a guy like Brandon McCarthy (picking a name out of a hat here), it can claim it's "going for it" while still loading up for the next two seasons, which strikes me as the time when the Reds can actually pick their year and luck be damned.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2006, 11:10 PM
I've never really bought into that line of thinking. It always struck me as another way of saying the team can only expect to win by getting extremely lucky.

Anyway, I'm not so sure the year is picking the Reds. Yeah the league is mired in mediocrity, but the Reds still don't strike me as a team likely to take advantage of it.

Personally I'm in favor of option #3. If the team gets a guy like Brandon McCarthy (picking a name out of a hat here), it can claim it's "going for it" while still loading up for the next two seasons, which strikes me as the time when the Reds can actually pick their year and luck be damned.


Lateral moves, as you say, are going for it. Turn the talent we have into the talent we need. It really isn't quantum physics.

In general, I think "buying or selling" is a false dilemma.

M2
07-09-2006, 11:21 PM
In general, I think "buying or selling" is a false dilemma.

To a degree you're right. It's really more a matter of whether you want to acquire pieces just for 2006 or for later years or go after some hybrid solutions. I'm hybridding it.

Caveat Emperor
07-09-2006, 11:24 PM
Lateral moves, as you say, are going for it. Turn the talent we have into the talent we need. It really isn't quantum physics.

In general, I think "buying or selling" is a false dilemma.

Problem is, it's not really a "lateral" move. We're walking into a 7-11 trying to pay with Rubles instead of Dollars. The exchange rate on what we have (bats) vs. what we need (arms) just doesn't calculate out in our favor.

I agree -- this team can (and should) make moves designed to put them in a better position to compete today and down the road. The problem I see is that they simply don't have the capital to buy their way out of the problems that exist on the team to make it as successful as it needs to be RIGHT NOW to compete for a post-season run.

You've gotta ask yourself:
1.) What is tradeable in this organization that will bring the value back that the team needs to compete?
2.) How much of it can I trade before I hit the ol' Law of Diminishing Returns (i.e. the amount of runs I'm saving with better pitching isn't enough to cover the run production I'm losing trading players)?
3.) How much of the future am I willing to sacrafice for a chance at outrunning the Cardinals and Brewers today?

CTA513
07-09-2006, 11:26 PM
Sellers.

Sell everything all the way down to VSL Reds.

:devil:

flyer85
07-09-2006, 11:30 PM
Problem is, it's not really a "lateral" move. We're walking into a 7-11 trying to pay with Rubles instead of Dollars. The exchange rate on what we have (bats) vs. what we need (arms) just doesn't calculate out in our favor.
it could only work if you can identify undervalued/underutilized talent. Try getting players that seemed to have fallen out of favor with their current franchise. Players like Davis(cleveland), Floyd(Philly), Wuertz(Chicago), etc.

Falls City Beer
07-09-2006, 11:34 PM
Problem is, it's not really a "lateral" move. We're walking into a 7-11 trying to pay with Rubles instead of Dollars. The exchange rate on what we have (bats) vs. what we need (arms) just doesn't calculate out in our favor.

I agree -- this team can (and should) make moves designed to put them in a better position to compete today and down the road. The problem I see is that they simply don't have the capital to buy their way out of the problems that exist on the team to make it as successful as it needs to be RIGHT NOW to compete for a post-season run.

You've gotta ask yourself:
1.) What is tradeable in this organization that will bring the value back that the team needs to compete?
2.) How much of it can I trade before I hit the ol' Law of Diminishing Returns (i.e. the amount of runs I'm saving with better pitching isn't enough to cover the run production I'm losing trading players)?
3.) How much of the future am I willing to sacrafice for a chance at outrunning the Cardinals and Brewers today?


I think that if you're smart, you can win many trades with bats acquiring arms.

And I'm okay saying, "The postseason may come or not; the first order of business is shifting what we have in abundance (several high grade offensive players that some teams will pay dearly for) for what we lack (young AND veteran pitching talent)."

I think where the armchair GMs get tangled up is in the singleminded dream of acquiring young, on-the-cusp-of-superstardom pitching talent; going for that strictly limits SO many opportunities.

4256 Hits
07-09-2006, 11:39 PM
I would like to see them sell (in some cases give away) about 15 players on the roster. They have way to many guys on the the wrong side of 30 that were never really that good.

flyer85
07-09-2006, 11:41 PM
I think where the armchair GMs get tangled up is in the singleminded dream of acquiring young, on-the-cusp-of-superstardom pitching talent; going for that strictly limits SO many opportunities.the goal should be identifying talent that the Reds have identified as undervalued. Otherwise you'll end up paying to high a price for what you receive. I agree with FCB that a really good GM could move some pieces off the major league roster and strengthen the team in both the short term and long term. The problem with doing it in season is finding a dance partner who needs what you have to trade and has assets to send back that they undervalue.

M2
07-10-2006, 12:43 AM
it could only work if you can identify undervalued/underutilized talent. Try getting players that seemed to have fallen out of favor with their current franchise. Players like Davis(cleveland), Floyd(Philly), Wuertz(Chicago), etc.

I like the basic idea, though Gavin Floyd has fallen out of favor with his current franchise for all the right reasons.

Davis might be worth a flyer (dig me with the puns). Wuertz strikes me as the most interesting guy on that list.

wally post
07-10-2006, 01:30 AM
I'm amazed personally to see talk of trading Arroyo because he is obviously a useful cat - yet I believe we should be sellers. We could NEVER win a World Series with whatever we can trade right now and not hurt our current team. We would only be in the game with our weak ante and get knocked out quickly. I am concerned that we would give away too much of the so-called "future"! So I say, let's sell and be bold -

I mean, this works for the marlins...(out of necessity in their case - yet...) We aren't there and can't get there this year, so let's hope the front office is calculating about our future over the next two years - and give up the right tools to put it ALL together! (I'm hoping for a Tommy Helms/Cesar Geronimo/joe Morgan/Lee May kinda trade here!

honest.

I'm open to losing Felipe - Dunn - Kearns - almost anyone... It would be a shock and I won't like it - but... p l e a s e ...????

redsrule2500
07-10-2006, 01:32 AM
Arroyo kinda sucks now.

wally post
07-10-2006, 01:43 AM
Arroyo kinda sucks now.


yeah - maybe you are right - I'm not qualified - but it figures given his record. Let's sell high and buy low, right??

if he (along with an appropriately chosen hitter) got us a more serious ichiban (#1) pitcher?..... YEAH!

I love redszone - it chills me out.

WVRedsFan
07-10-2006, 02:09 AM
Buy. With one caveat. Make it promising young players. No more Castros. Please. Buy arems that can hold a lead. Buy players than do more than field.

I listened to Jerry Narron on the pre-game show and all he talked about were fielders "who could take the pressure off our pitching so it would be better." Uh...Jerry, the pitching's so bad that fielding won't help much. Your ace took the Reds out of the game by the 4th inning today. Seriously, Narron wants to make this team a fielding giant and a wimpy hitting team. I expect a big trade at the deadline giving someone Dunn, Griffey, and Lopez for three Castro clones or two disgruntled over-the-hill pitchers. Then he can put Castro, Freel, and (good defensive outfielder of your choice) in the lineup to watch the balls fly over the fence. Krivsky traded for a closer and hasn't had a closing situation since. Ironic, isn't it?

I'm sorry to be so negative, but the management of this team is so poor, we could trade for the top 4 starters in the majors and still lose three of them with the bonehead decisions.

and if you read my signature below, that was before I learned that Wayne wants to make the team Jerry's non-kids. I would like to think he knows what he's doing, but day after day I have my doubts.

KronoRed
07-10-2006, 02:40 AM
A trade of Arroyo would tick off a lot of fans, but he's hot (well he was)..his career numbers say he probably won't stay this hot, and if a desperate team came calling offering some near ready pitching prospects it would be IMO foolish to say no.

Jpup
07-10-2006, 05:16 AM
why do I have a feeling that nothing will happen?

princeton
07-10-2006, 07:51 AM
Reds have shown that they will buy, so all talk is moot (shrug).

in general, I'd say that the team needs to sell, but since this is the most talent that the Reds will have for a while, and since there's enough of a race to tickle the fans, buying doesn't bother me.

Another consideration is whether it's a buyers' or sellers' market. It'll take a few moves before one can judge, but the Guardado trade suggests that it's a market for buyers. So altogether, buying makes sense.

A complication will be that the Reds will announce that Bailey/Bruce are unavailable, yet some trade partners will hold out for one of the two. This will limit things for the Reds

37red
07-10-2006, 07:51 AM
Buy. Buy arms, 2 good starting arms and 1 middle relief arm. If we must, we let one good offensive player go to balance some of the cash flow. Our losses are built around mediocre pitching. A few good wins and everyone's spirits pick up. When everyone's spirits pick up confidence builds and the team picks it up a notch, that makes a huge difference. If the team can get back into a tug of war for first place then the fans start filling up the seats and money helps cover some of the price of the new pitching. We aren't looking at a World Series Team here, but we can have a division level team. Then in the off season some holes can be plugged we have something to build on. For the last 7 years all we've done is let down the hopes of new and old fans with false promises and all star break sales events, lets leave that to GM. It's never been a secret that the Reds needed a few really good starting pitchers, we've had a decent fielding and hitting team. Buy pitchers.

Krusty
07-10-2006, 09:49 AM
Buy. When you're within five games of the NL Central and 1.5 games back for the wildcard, you have to make a run for it......as long as you don't mortgage the farm system.

With that said, the Reds need to add a setup man for the bullpen because word is Coffey is tipping his pitches right now and is getting lit up. Cubs' Scott Williamson and Marlins Joe Borowski would be fine acquisitions. LaTroy Hawkins is a former Twin that could end up in Cincinnati Reds.

With Brandon Claussen looking horrible in his first rehab assignment and Joe Mays being burnt toast, it is obvious the Reds need another starter. How about RHP Jon Leiber of the Phillies or possible RHP Brad Radke of the Twins? Pirates could be offering the likes of RHPs Kip Wells, Roberto Hernandez and LHP Damos Marte. LHP Mark Redman of the Royals might make a suitable fifth starter for the Reds.

Just a few ideas to throw out but I think you have to make a run for a playoff spot.

Jpup
07-10-2006, 10:20 AM
Buy. When you're within five games of the NL Central and 1.5 games back for the wildcard, you have to make a run for it......as long as you don't mortgage the farm system.

With that said, the Reds need to add a setup man for the bullpen because word is Coffey is tipping his pitches right now and is getting lit up. Cubs' Scott Williamson and Marlins Joe Borowski would be fine acquisitions. LaTroy Hawkins is a former Twin that could end up in Cincinnati Reds.

With Brandon Claussen looking horrible in his first rehab assignment and Joe Mays being burnt toast, it is obvious the Reds need another starter. How about RHP Jon Leiber of the Phillies or possible RHP Brad Radke of the Twins? Pirates could be offering the likes of RHPs Kip Wells, Roberto Hernandez and LHP Damos Marte. LHP Mark Redman of the Royals might make a suitable fifth starter for the Reds.

Just a few ideas to throw out but I think you have to make a run for a playoff spot.

Wouldn't Radke have 10/5 rights?

15fan
07-10-2006, 11:55 AM
I've never really bought into that line of thinking. It always struck me as another way of saying the team can only expect to win by getting extremely lucky.

Anyway, I'm not so sure the year is picking the Reds. Yeah the league is mired in mediocrity, but the Reds still don't strike me as a team likely to take advantage of it.

Personally I'm in favor of option #3. If the team gets a guy like Brandon McCarthy (picking a name out of a hat here), it can claim it's "going for it" while still loading up for the next two seasons, which strikes me as the time when the Reds can actually pick their year and luck be damned.

Competing is part art, part science, and part luck.

Compared to previous years, luck has actually been making an occasional appearance in Cincinnati this year. At the very least, Reds voodoo dolls haven't been the recipient of many pins so far in 2006. Most importantly (he said knocking on wood), the team has been relatively healthy. The bats have been thumping the ball about like we thought they should. Arroyo & Harang have been workhorses.

I also like the idea of buying from the psychological perspective. It's been a while since the guys wearing Reds uniforms have been playing meaningful games in August. It's been a while since the folks in River City have had a reason to go to the park in August in September. I'd like to see the FO show some signs that they're willing & able to go get some help if the team can make a go of it over the first half of the season.

With a move or two in the next couple of weeks, I don't see the Reds being that much different from, say, the Florida Marlins of 2003. That's a team that caught lightning in a bottle. The 2006 Reds actually have a couple of bottles, and there are some grey clouds above. It's time to get out in the field and do a rain dance to get the skies to open up. We've been holed up in the storm cellar for long enough.

REDREAD
07-10-2006, 12:07 PM
You don't pick the year, the year picks you.

Buy.

Amen to that. The Cards have stumbled this year, and it's kept us in the race. We might not be so lucky again for a long time.

Actually, what Wayne is doing right now, such as picking up guys like Guardo and Yan is nice. They are potential help (doesn't take much to upgrade our horrible pen), and costing us nothing that will hurt in the future. I think Wayne can buy without doing something crazy like sending Homer and Bruce to rent Soraino for the rest of the year.

schroomytunes
07-10-2006, 01:39 PM
I think we are going to see a move after the all-star break. I feel that Krivsky will not give up too early and he will come out of the gate hard and fast. I'm willing to bet the only hold up right now is Claussen's DL stint. If I'm a betting man I think this is the deal that's going to go down:

Reds trade: Brandon Claussen, Ty Pelland, Chris Denorfia

Royals trade: Mark Redman and Elmer Dessens with no cash involved.

Redman fills the 5th spot, and Elmer shores up middle relief. Thoughts?

M2
07-10-2006, 01:56 PM
Competing is part art, part science, and part luck.

Compared to previous years, luck has actually been making an occasional appearance in Cincinnati this year. At the very least, Reds voodoo dolls haven't been the recipient of many pins so far in 2006. Most importantly (he said knocking on wood), the team has been relatively healthy. The bats have been thumping the ball about like we thought they should. Arroyo & Harang have been workhorses.

I also like the idea of buying from the psychological perspective. It's been a while since the guys wearing Reds uniforms have been playing meaningful games in August. It's been a while since the folks in River City have had a reason to go to the park in August in September. I'd like to see the FO show some signs that they're willing & able to go get some help if the team can make a go of it over the first half of the season.

With a move or two in the next couple of weeks, I don't see the Reds being that much different from, say, the Florida Marlins of 2003. That's a team that caught lightning in a bottle. The 2006 Reds actually have a couple of bottles, and there are some grey clouds above. It's time to get out in the field and do a rain dance to get the skies to open up. We've been holed up in the storm cellar for long enough.


Good points.

Though I keep coming back to there being only two pitchers on the team whom I actually want to see taking the mound. The team may have ridden the rest of the staff as far as it can go.

Anyway, what I'd like to see the team avoid is Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler types of acquisitions. IMO, if they go for it, it shouldn't be done in the conventional manner (e.g. calling all vets).

Roy Tucker
07-10-2006, 03:13 PM
it could only work if you can identify undervalued/underutilized talent. Try getting players that seemed to have fallen out of favor with their current franchise. Players like Davis(cleveland), Floyd(Philly), Wuertz(Chicago), etc.
Larue(Cin).

Whichever route Krivsky takes (vets or kids), I want to see true talent come back. I don't want to see a Jimbo-like desperate grab at the deadline (M2's Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler types). Either get studs or future studs or don't get anything.

KronoRed
07-10-2006, 03:48 PM
Wouldn't Radke have 10/5 rights?
Yes, bet money he'd turn the deal down.

15fan
07-10-2006, 03:52 PM
Good points.

Though I keep coming back to there being only two pitchers on the team whom I actually want to see taking the mound. The team may have ridden the rest of the staff as far as it can go.

I think the Lizard Man gives the team a solid 3rd starter. Or at least as solid as just about any other NL team that's not playing in New York or Houston. I think that Belisle and Coffey can fill roles in the bullpen well enough to bridge the gap to a hammer at the back of the bullpen. If the Reds can find that hammer, then they have just as many bullets in their holster as almost any other team in the NL.

Admittedly, that's a pretty big "If". If there's no hammer to be found in the next 3 weeks, then 2 more solid if not spectacular arms in the bullpen is what has to be on the wish list for the stretch.


Anyway, what I'd like to see the team avoid is Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler types of acquisitions. IMO, if they go for it, it shouldn't be done in the conventional manner (e.g. calling all vets).

Preach on. If those types of arms are the best/only options that are available at this summer's swap meet, then hold pat and go with what you got in-house. Throwing one of those arms into the mix is subtraction by addition.

(Unless the deal involves moving one Eric Milton.)

Then over the off-season, it's time to move an OF bat (Kearns) for some more pitching.

I have to admit, though, the fact that Redread is agreeing with me has me a little spooked. ;)

Edit: Speaking of Houston up above...I tuned into the 10th inning of last night's Cards-Astros tilt. Houston would probably like another bat to help Berkman carry the offensive load. It'd take some cajones, but maybe the Astros make sense as a trading partner. They seem to have some decent bullpen arms. If not in the next few weeks, then definitely over the offseason I think it makes sense to see what kind of pitching they'd be willing to give up to put Austin Kearns in right field.

M2
07-10-2006, 04:19 PM
Edit: Speaking of Houston up above...I tuned into the 10th inning of last night's Cards-Astros tilt. Houston would probably like another bat to help Berkman carry the offensive load. It'd take some cajones, but maybe the Astros make sense as a trading partner. They seem to have some decent bullpen arms. If not in the next few weeks, then definitely over the offseason I think it makes sense to see what kind of pitching they'd be willing to give up to put Austin Kearns in right field.

I agree, Houston has a desperate need for a capable OF bat. If they'd put Jason Hirsh on the table then I'd be all for sending Kearns their way.

flyer85
07-10-2006, 04:24 PM
I like the basic idea, though Gavin Floyd has fallen out of favor with his current franchise for all the right reasons.as has Davis, I still have no clue about Wuertz other than the fact the Cubs spent all that money on Howry/Eyre/Dumpster.

The point is the Reds have to identify their own set of players and figure out if there is a way to get them without giving up a lot (the answer in the end may be "no".

The_jbh
07-10-2006, 05:27 PM
Man whoever created that prozac drug rep threat was right... Redzone is on abandon ship... i may invest in some life vests... geez

as for trading arroyo, this is an awful idea... at his career norms the guy would still be a quality #3 starter... we need pitching and dealing him would only make things worse. Trading him would not only be conceding this season but the next 2... his mediocrity is still a improvement over 05, i understand selling high buying low but trading arroyo is a step backwards for the next 2 1/2 seasons... and he had 2 bad starts... relax guys, maybe the break will be good for him and he'll shape back into form.

People say players are overachieving... but are they really?
I can see the arguemnt on Arroyo and Ross... Harang isnt doing THAT much better than last year. On the flip side of ross, LaRue is underachieving. You could make the arguement LaRue is going to come to career norms and u should deal ross... that is a better plan than dealing arroyo...
Lopez is underachieving. I dont think Kearns is overachieving, just getting his career on line. 1 Could even argue Dunn is underachieiving....


I am well aware of the porous bullpen and we obviously need to shore that up. Hopefully coffey will return to even a mediocore reliever and Guarardo can be effective. i think belisle can be a serviceable a reliever. We really need a solid closer or set up man (i guess for Eddie G) and another good arm and we would be ok. I think the 5 spot in the rotation could be filled by Germano or any other random arms we throw out there... realistically look at the picture

we are 4 games out of 1st
1.5 games out of the wild card... do u really want to bail now...

I think the past has made us too much of pessimists

Ltlabner
07-10-2006, 10:09 PM
I suppose this has already been said, but I agree that we should explore trades that help us in 2006 without screwing us in years to come. In other words, players that might help us win in 2006 but definatley will help us in 2007 and beyond.

The last thing we need, now that we have some intelligent people at the head of the ship, is to brashly trade a player and not get enough in return. Or to over pay for a short term rental player. We have a good leadership team, some good young tallents that could turn into great young tallents and a nice cast of supporting players that can be traded or plugged in as needed.

I think we can build something special in Cincinnati if we make the right moves and don't panic or go overboard in trying to win now at the expense of tomorow.

Marc D
07-10-2006, 10:59 PM
Man whoever created that prozac drug rep threat was right... Redzone is on abandon ship... i may invest in some life vests... geez

as for trading arroyo, this is an awful idea... at his career norms the guy would still be a quality #3 starter... we need pitching and dealing him would only make things worse. Trading him would not only be conceding this season but the next 2... his mediocrity is still a improvement over 05, i understand selling high buying low but trading arroyo is a step backwards for the next 2 1/2 seasons... and he had 2 bad starts... relax guys, maybe the break will be good for him and he'll shape back into form.

People say players are overachieving... but are they really?
I can see the arguemnt on Arroyo and Ross... Harang isnt doing THAT much better than last year. On the flip side of ross, LaRue is underachieving. You could make the arguement LaRue is going to come to career norms and u should deal ross... that is a better plan than dealing arroyo...
Lopez is underachieving. I dont think Kearns is overachieving, just getting his career on line. 1 Could even argue Dunn is underachieiving....


I am well aware of the porous bullpen and we obviously need to shore that up. Hopefully coffey will return to even a mediocore reliever and Guarardo can be effective. i think belisle can be a serviceable a reliever. We really need a solid closer or set up man (i guess for Eddie G) and another good arm and we would be ok. I think the 5 spot in the rotation could be filled by Germano or any other random arms we throw out there... realistically look at the picture

we are 4 games out of 1st
1.5 games out of the wild card... do u really want to bail now...

I think the past has made us too much of pessimists

Pessimists? How about realists.


-We started 19-8. We are 26-36 since. I don't care how weak the NL central is, you aren't going to catch anyone playing 10 games under .500.

-We had a custom made stretch in the schedule right before the break to make a move and spit the motherlovin bit. 13 straight games against teams who at the time had a combined .420 win %. We promptly went 4-9 against the softest part of our schedule. Truely impressive.

-We are "only" 4 games back in the weakest division in baseball. Think about it. The Cards are falling apart, lost 9 out of 10 at one point, had the highest team ERA in the NL for June, injuries, a 3 man lineup, all that and we couldn't catch them. In fact they widened the lead. Thats just sad folks.

-The limited success this team has enjoyed was a result of Arroyo, Harang, Coffey and ER pitching well above norm. They are coming back to earth and the pen is still be a disaster. I fail to see the brightness in that situation.

-Go buy help? 1 Starter and 3 bullpen arms in the middle of the season with at least a dozen other teams after the same thing. Does anyone here seriously think thats going to happen? Better yet has anyone even considered the staggering price a team would have to pay, if that kind of haul were for sale? We simply don't have the chips, I don't think anyone does.

A realist is just an optamist who has been around for a while. Realistically, we can all do our best Don Meredith impersonations and start singing "Turn out the lights....."

George Foster
07-11-2006, 12:49 AM
Can we trade the one who makes the lineup call and other in game decisions for a bucket of used balls? And then bring back the one who brought us to the promised land the last time?

Amen, praise the Lord:thumbup:

Krusty
07-11-2006, 09:58 AM
I think we are going to see a move after the all-star break. I feel that Krivsky will not give up too early and he will come out of the gate hard and fast. I'm willing to bet the only hold up right now is Claussen's DL stint. If I'm a betting man I think this is the deal that's going to go down:

Reds trade: Brandon Claussen, Ty Pelland, Chris Denorfia

Royals trade: Mark Redman and Elmer Dessens with no cash involved.

Redman fills the 5th spot, and Elmer shores up middle relief. Thoughts?

I really like that deal.

Krusty
07-11-2006, 10:00 AM
I agree, Houston has a desperate need for a capable OF bat. If they'd put Jason Hirsh on the table then I'd be all for sending Kearns their way.

I got Houston being a major player for Washington's Soriano. They have several young arms and they could put a package together to the one two years ago that acquired them Carlos Beltran for the stretch run.

Krusty
07-11-2006, 10:04 AM
Pessimists? How about realists.


-We started 19-8. We are 26-36 since. I don't care how weak the NL central is, you aren't going to catch anyone playing 10 games under .500.

-We had a custom made stretch in the schedule right before the break to make a move and spit the motherlovin bit. 13 straight games against teams who at the time had a combined .420 win %. We promptly went 4-9 against the softest part of our schedule. Truely impressive.

-We are "only" 4 games back in the weakest division in baseball. Think about it. The Cards are falling apart, lost 9 out of 10 at one point, had the highest team ERA in the NL for June, injuries, a 3 man lineup, all that and we couldn't catch them. In fact they widened the lead. Thats just sad folks.

-The limited success this team has enjoyed was a result of Arroyo, Harang, Coffey and ER pitching well above norm. They are coming back to earth and the pen is still be a disaster. I fail to see the brightness in that situation.

-Go buy help? 1 Starter and 3 bullpen arms in the middle of the season with at least a dozen other teams after the same thing. Does anyone here seriously think thats going to happen? Better yet has anyone even considered the staggering price a team would have to pay, if that kind of haul were for sale? We simply don't have the chips, I don't think anyone does.

A realist is just an optamist who has been around for a while. Realistically, we can all do our best Don Meredith impersonations and start singing "Turn out the lights....."

We just go Guardado three games ago so why not see if it helps the bullpen woes? I still think we need another setup man and a fifth starter.

You're trying to regenerate interest in Cincinnati Reds baseball. Go ahead and pull the plug when you're within five games of the division lead and 1.5 games out of the wildcard and see how many fannies are sitting in those seats come August and September.

Time to put this losing mentality out of our heads. Sooner or later you have to look at the glass being half full instead of half empty.

The_jbh
07-11-2006, 02:01 PM
Pessimists? How about realists.


-We started 19-8. We are 26-36 since. I don't care how weak the NL central is, you aren't going to catch anyone playing 10 games under .500.

-We had a custom made stretch in the schedule right before the break to make a move and spit the motherlovin bit. 13 straight games against teams who at the time had a combined .420 win %. We promptly went 4-9 against the softest part of our schedule. Truely impressive.

-We are "only" 4 games back in the weakest division in baseball. Think about it. The Cards are falling apart, lost 9 out of 10 at one point, had the highest team ERA in the NL for June, injuries, a 3 man lineup, all that and we couldn't catch them. In fact they widened the lead. Thats just sad folks.

-The limited success this team has enjoyed was a result of Arroyo, Harang, Coffey and ER pitching well above norm. They are coming back to earth and the pen is still be a disaster. I fail to see the brightness in that situation.

-Go buy help? 1 Starter and 3 bullpen arms in the middle of the season with at least a dozen other teams after the same thing. Does anyone here seriously think thats going to happen? Better yet has anyone even considered the staggering price a team would have to pay, if that kind of haul were for sale? We simply don't have the chips, I don't think anyone does.

A realist is just an optamist who has been around for a while. Realistically, we can all do our best Don Meredith impersonations and start singing "Turn out the lights....."

you can go the other way on the record too.. since June 8th, the last month, we were 8-20... thats horrific but can you really expect the team to play that awful the rest of the season. Can you honestly look at the roster and think we are going to be that bad? So essentially for 2 months we were 37-24. I dont think we will play that well, but we don't have to. This team hit a serious rut this month for many reasons but I have a hard time believing we are going to play .286 ball the rest of the season. One could even argue the 1st 2 months of the season is a better sample of our potential.

We have another half month atleast till we seriously have to make this decison but if the decison had to be made today I still think you have to buy. 1.5 games out of the wild card for petes sakes and you want to call it a season?

I don't expect Kriv to poop out relievers, Im sure he would have allready done that, but I think we could realistically aquire one starter and one reliever.

Milton is finally healthy and pitching atleast semi well. I would say his current performance is way closer to his career norms than last season. I love it when some of you all point to previous production or lack there of to support an arguement for a player slumping but when someone is producing those type of things are ignored.

One thing you have to point out about this 8-20 skid was this team never gave up. I can think of 4 games this past week, hell the whole Brewers series, that we came from behind to what should have been a win except the bullpen blew it. This team has HEART and CHEMISTRY, two intangibles many of the teams we are in a race with for the WC don't have. IMO we have one of the best line ups in baseball, and great depth. Pitching is obviously our problem.

Arroyo at his career norms if thats what he is returning to is still a serviceable #3 starter. Harang has been doing only slightly inferior to what he has this season the past 2 years, I don't buy the arguement he is overachieving. Claussen is massively underachieving. Milton I think is returning to career norms.

Wilson and Balfour are returning soon. Who knows, maybe Wilson can give us an adequate #5 starter? Balfour can't be anyworse than what we have. Hopefulyl Guarardo gives us even a servicable arm and Coffey can return to form as a set up man.

Call me an optimist or nonrealist or whatever you may. All I know is a moved to Cincinnati in 1992 basically just in time for Cincinnati sports to go to the crapper and I was too young and ignorant to avoid being a fan. And I have been an optimist concerning the Bengals and the Reds since then every season and finally the Bengals are rewarding my loyalty. Why can't it be the Reds too. And lets be honest, looking at the Class half full is much more fun as a fan.

M2
07-11-2006, 08:08 PM
When you're insisting that Eric Milton (5.24 ERA) is pitching semi-well and that Paul Wilson might come back and help a team contend, you're really grasping at straws.

oregonred
07-11-2006, 09:13 PM
When you're insisting that Eric Milton (5.24 ERA) is pitching semi-well and that Paul Wilson might come back and help a team contend, you're really grasping at straws.

Granted, he's in no danger of winning a CY, but consider that even with his two recent poor outings; Way, way better than his 2005 debacle -- his ERA is a little out of whack

BIPA = .265 :eek:
BAA = .263 :eek:
WHIP = 1.29 :eek:
OPS = .772 (would be 32nd in NL for starters if qualified)
8 out of 13 QS (when he blows he blows, but he does keep you in a lot of games, especially as a #4/5 starter)
$8.5M salary :bang:
Home splits actually are better than road splits :eek:

Reds OPS Comparison

Arroyo .688
Harang = .745
Lizard = .748
Milton = .772
Coffey = .790 :eek:
Claussen = .876 :bang:
Mays = .925 :laugh:

FCB -- DFA Milton? :laugh:

Or some others...
Dontrelle = .756
Maddux = .768
D Davis = .769
Pettitte = .876
Od Perez = .929 (worse than Mays!)

How about what was recently 80% of the current Cards Staff with much better defense behind them to avoid prolonged innings/flag down more gappers...

Marquis = .817
Suppan = .877
Mulder = .905
Ponson = .843 (DFA'd)
:beerme:

M2
07-11-2006, 10:06 PM
That other teams have pitchers doing poorly isn't a justification for counting on Eric Milton. If the Milton stays in the rotation, the Reds will need to overcome the enormous amount of damage he does in order to stay in contention.

Falls City Beer
07-11-2006, 10:06 PM
Granted, he's in no danger of winning a CY, but consider that even with his two recent poor outings; Way, way better than his 2005 debacle -- his ERA is a little out of whack

BIPA = .265 :eek:
BAA = .263 :eek:
WHIP = 1.29 :eek:
OPS = .772 (would be 32nd in NL for starters if qualified)
8 out of 13 QS (when he blows he blows, but he does keep you in a lot of games, especially as a #4/5 starter)
$8.5M salary :bang:
Home splits actually are better than road splits :eek:

Reds OPS Comparison

Arroyo .688
Harang = .745
Lizard = .748
Milton = .772
Coffey = .790 :eek:
Claussen = .876 :bang:
Mays = .925 :laugh:

FCB -- DFA Milton? :laugh:

Or some others...
Dontrelle = .756
Maddux = .768
D Davis = .769
Pettitte = .876
Od Perez = .929 (worse than Mays!)

How about what was recently 80% of the current Cards Staff with much better defense behind them to avoid prolonged innings/flag down more gappers...

Marquis = .817
Suppan = .877
Mulder = .905
Ponson = .843 (DFA'd)
:beerme:


Yeah, he's at .772 OPSA--and it's only getting worse. He's shown no signs of turning it around.

oregonred
07-12-2006, 01:11 AM
That other teams have pitchers doing poorly isn't a justification for counting on Eric Milton. If the Milton stays in the rotation, the Reds will need to overcome the enormous amount of damage he does in order to stay in contention.

Really, and I thought he was going to revert to grab the Cy Young...;)

He certainly isn't worth 8.5M, but he's a serviceable #4 on this staff. He's actually been surprisingly un-Miltonlike in the majority of his starts this season.

oregonred
07-12-2006, 01:17 AM
Yeah, he's at .772 OPSA--and it's only getting worse. He's shown no signs of turning it around.

He's a gas can mixed with explosives when he begins to fall apart. But your plan for the #4/#5 spots in the rotation starting Thursday night would be??

And you would trade for which two of the ~25 Starters in each league who have posted a better 1st half?

The_jbh
07-12-2006, 04:26 AM
When you're insisting that Eric Milton (5.24 ERA) is pitching semi-well and that Paul Wilson might come back and help a team contend, you're really grasping at straws.

On the surface stats Milton looks awful but as others have pointed out, he is in fact pitching semi well. With our offense we can survive with semi well. What we can survive is the bullpen blowing games we should win. I am way less concerned with the rotation than I am the pen.

Hey a lot of teams out there have worse than Paul wilson to throw out there. Its not like it was that long ago that he had success. Hes not something I would gamble my season on but he's an option... can't do ne worse than mays

SteelSD
07-12-2006, 10:16 AM
On the surface stats Milton looks awful but as others have pointed out, he is in fact pitching semi well. With our offense we can survive with semi well. What we can survive is the bullpen blowing games we should win. I am way less concerned with the rotation than I am the pen.

Currently, there are 46 NL Starting Pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. If Eric Milton qualified, he'd rank 42nd out of 47 with a 4.97 DIPS ERA. He's not pitching "semi-well". He's pitching badly.


Hey a lot of teams out there have worse than Paul wilson to throw out there. Its not like it was that long ago that he had success. Hes not something I would gamble my season on but he's an option... can't do ne worse than mays

Hoping that Paul Wilson returns to provide potential mediocrity (if he returns at all) isn't much of a plan. And if he returns this season there's a better than good chance he'll be gasoline added to the fire. Bum shoulders held together by twine and duct tape tend to do that.

The_jbh
07-12-2006, 03:02 PM
Currently, there are 46 NL Starting Pitchers who qualify for the ERA title. If Eric Milton qualified, he'd rank 42nd out of 47 with a 4.97 DIPS ERA. He's not pitching "semi-well". He's pitching badly.



Hoping that Paul Wilson returns to provide potential mediocrity (if he returns at all) isn't much of a plan. And if he returns this season there's a better than good chance he'll be gasoline added to the fire. Bum shoulders held together by twine and duct tape tend to do that.

I'm not expecting anything out of Paul Wilson, I'm just saying he's an option, another guy that we can see if he can give u anything whether its starting or relieving. Atleast he's had sucess in the past. He very well could be adding fuel to the fire just as well as he could give us some quality innings... who knows...

Marc D
07-12-2006, 03:24 PM
I'm not expecting anything out of Paul Wilson, I'm just saying he's an option, another guy that we can see if he can give u anything whether its starting or relieving. Atleast he's had sucess in the past. He very well could be adding fuel to the fire just as well as he could give us some quality innings... who knows...

Its far from a 50/50 thing. The odds that he adds gas to the fire are much greater than the odds of him being a help. There are large sample sizes of horrific numbers from the guy to back that up on top of his most recent injuries. I can't think of one thing besides unadalterated hope, that would lead someone to think Wilson could be a help in the second half.

M2
07-12-2006, 05:38 PM
Really, and I thought he was going to revert to grab the Cy Young...;)

He certainly isn't worth 8.5M, but he's a serviceable #4 on this staff. He's actually been surprisingly un-Miltonlike in the majority of his starts this season.

His Miltonosity has been catching up to him with a vengence and he's not a serviceable #4 on a playoff contender.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 03:09 AM
His Miltonosity has been catching up to him with a vengence and he's not a serviceable #4 on a playoff contender.

Miltonisity -- that's a great one. :beerme:

We've got a whole lexicon around Milton, my fav being the oft used "suckitude" references from 2005.

Then where are the Cards with their present rotation? Take a look at almost all the NL Contenders -- it's pretty ugly right now for back of the rotation #4/#5 type fodder almost across the board.

Solve our gaping #5 issue (basically a guaranteed loss and bullpen drainer every time out) then we'll worry next about upgrading from Uncle Milty who is keeping the Reds in the vast majority of his 2006 games pitched to date.

GAC
07-13-2006, 06:10 AM
Pessimists? How about realists.


-We started 19-8. We are 26-36 since. I don't care how weak the NL central is, you aren't going to catch anyone playing 10 games under .500.

I agree. And what area of this team has largely led to that poor play?

For the most part - the bullpen is the culprit.

The bullpen is fixable (and maybe not this year; but in the off-season) without selling off or gutting this team.

M2
07-13-2006, 10:33 AM
Where are the Cards with their present rotation? Take a look at almost all the NL Contenders -- it's pretty ugly right now for back of the rotation #4/#5 type fodder almost across the board.

The operational part of that paragraph being "right now." Someone in the division is going to get their rotation sorted out. It might be more than one team. Eric Milton is not going to get sorted out. He's going to pitch poorly and keep his ERA 5.00. There's no sunshine in a 5.00+ ERA. It's something that should be reviled by a team that fancies itself a contender.

You're assuming that things will just keep going wrong for other NL Central teams and that none of them will correct an obvious, glaring problem so the Reds don't have to deal with Milton. IMO, if the Reds share that line of thinking then they can expect a quick descent into irrelevance.