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dabvu2498
07-12-2006, 01:19 PM
I found this here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/defensive_rankings_by_position_and_league_200_inni ngs

Below you will find listed the Reds and their ranking in the National League based on a stat for which you can find the methodology here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/dr_strangeglove_or_how_i_learned_to_stop_worrying_ and_love_zone_rating1/

The stat that he uses to rank is called Runs Saved (vs. average at that position). I'm going to include Runs Saved/150 games. All rankings are based on players who have 200+ innings at their position.

C:
Larue: 2nd/25: 14 RS/150
Ross: 12th/25: 5 RS/150

1B:
Hatteberg: 2nd/21: 13 RS/150

2B:
Phillips: 5th/20: 5 RS/150

3B:
Aurilia: 9th/18: 12 RS/150
Encarnacion: 16th/18: -18 RS/150 (Ahead of D. Wright and M. Cabrera.)

SS:
Lopez: 17th/17: -19 RS/150 (Dead last)

LF:
Dunn: 18th/19: -17 RS/150 (Ahead of Preston Wilson)

CF:
Freel: 11th/20: -3 RS/150
Griffey: 20th/20: -21 RS/150 (Dead last)

RF:
Kearns: 5th/17: 4 RS/150

Redhook
07-12-2006, 07:25 PM
Don't show this to Narron or our lineup will be:

Phillips 2B
Hatteberg 1B
Kearns RF
Aurilia 3B
LaRue C
Castro SS
Freel LF
Wise CF

Actually, after writing that lineup out it doesn't look all that bad ;) .

captainmorgan07
07-12-2006, 10:49 PM
Don't show this to Narron or our lineup will be:

Phillips 2B
Hatteberg 1B
Kearns RF
Aurilia 3B
LaRue C
Castro SS
Freel LF
Wise CF

Actually, after writing that lineup out it doesn't look all that bad ;) .
don't kno how we'd score any runs with that offense

reds44
07-12-2006, 11:09 PM
Encarnacion: 16th/18: -18 RS/150 (Ahead of D. Wright and M. Cabrera.)


Thank you. The last 3 guys are all the age of 23. Young 3rd baseman struggle with errors. It happens.

jimbo
07-12-2006, 11:14 PM
If EE had the MVP type numbers with his bat that Wright has, it would be a lot easier to overlook his defense.

reds44
07-12-2006, 11:16 PM
If EE had the MVP type numbers with his bat that Wright has, it would be a lot easier to overlook his defense.
Edwin leads the team in XBH and RBIs per AB and is 5th on the team in OBP (Hatte, Ross, Freel, and Dunn). He has been one of our best offensive players this year when he plays.

dabvu2498
07-12-2006, 11:17 PM
Encarnacion: 16th/18: -18 RS/150 (Ahead of D. Wright and M. Cabrera.)


Thank you. The last 3 guys are all the age of 23. Young 3rd baseman struggle with errors. It happens.
Actually, if you read their methodology (link shown at the top of the page), RS has more to do with Zone Ratings than anything else.

jimbo
07-12-2006, 11:26 PM
Edwin leads the team in XBH and RBIs per AB and is 5th on the team in OBP (Hatte, Ross, Freel, and Dunn). He has been one of our best offensive players this year when he plays.

You were making comparisons of the defense of David Wright and EE. While you are correct in saying Wright still has trouble defensively, I'm simply saying that EE is not even close to being the offensively player that Wright is. Wright is an MVP candidate, EE has a long way to go before being put in that category. If EE was putting up MVP numbers, it would be a lot easier to overlook his below average defense.

As I said in another thread, it is pretty well known that this team's weaknesses are defense and relief pitching. Defense and pitching is what wins championships. This team will score enough runs with or without EE's bat.

reds44
07-12-2006, 11:28 PM
You were making comparisons of the defense of David Wright and EE. While you are correct in saying Wright still has trouble defensively, I'm simply saying that EE is not even close to being the offensively player that Wright is. Wright is an MVP candidate, EE has a long way to go before being put in that category. If EE was putting up MVP numbers, it would be a lot easier to overlook his below average defense.

As I said in another thread, it is pretty well known that this team's weaknesses are defense and relief pitching. Defense and pitching is what wins championships. This team will score enough runs with or without EE's bat.
Wright is in his 2nd full season in the majors, Edwin hasn't even played 1 full year. To expect Wright numbers out of Edwin is unfair and unrealistic.

Lopez and Griffey are more problem on the defensive side of the ball then Edwin.

jimbo
07-12-2006, 11:44 PM
Wright is in his 2nd full season in the majors, Edwin hasn't even played 1 full year. To expect Wright numbers out of Edwin is unfair and unrealistic.

Lopez and Griffey are more problem on the defensive side of the ball then Edwin.

I'm not expecting those numbers, only recognizing the fact that if EE was an MVP candidate, I could overlook his defensive shortcomings.

Lopez and EE together are the biggest defensive problems on this team. Probably make up the weakest left side of the infield in all of baseball.

reds44
07-12-2006, 11:46 PM
I'm not expecting those numbers, only recognizing the fact that if EE was an MVP candidate, I could overlook his defensive shortcomings.

Lopez and EE together are the biggest defensive problems on this team. Probably make up the weakest left side of the infield in all of baseball.
Yes they do, which is exactly why Felipe needs to be traded or moved to 2nd base.

Blue
07-12-2006, 11:48 PM
Going by these stats, from CF-left we are terrible, except for our catcher who rarely plays.:bang:

jimbo
07-12-2006, 11:52 PM
Yes they do, which is exactly why Felipe needs to be traded or moved to 2nd base.

I continue to like the idea of switching Lopez and Phillips, if Lopez cannnot be traded. I knew I could find something we agree on. :beerme:

reds44
07-12-2006, 11:53 PM
I continue to like the idea of switching Lopez and Phillips, if Lopez cannnot be traded. I knew I could find something we agree on. :beerme:
:beerme: :beerme: :beerme:

Kc61
07-13-2006, 01:40 AM
These stats and others really show major defensive weakness on Reds team.

Stats show Lopez and Griffey, manning perhaps the two key defensive positions, dead last in each case.

If you go by fielding percentage alone, EE is at the bottom of all major league players with 70 or more total chances. All positions.

By any measure, Dunn has defensive shortcomings in left field.

All of these guys have superior offensive ability. But if Krivsky and Narron really want to improve the defense, as they claim, they will need to make some changes in some of these positions. EE has youth on his side and Dunn is an offensive force. Hard to know what changes get made, but if there is a true commitment to defense, something has to change.

The_jbh
07-13-2006, 02:15 AM
This is exactly why I am screaming not to deal Kearns

with out pitching we need the best possible fielding out there. Unfortunately major position changes like Griffey or Dunn to 1st or swapping Felo and Phillips wont happen until spring training. Kearns is the only potential gold glover on our team besides phillips.. hell even the only above average defensive player...

oregonred
07-13-2006, 03:28 AM
Combining this with KGJ's pedestrian VORP on the ORG thread -- UGLY :(

No one can deny -- this is one butt ugly defensive team in its current flawed construction. 3B/SS/LF/CF is just a mess. Add in extra wear and tear on a shaky pitching staff -- I don't think ERA or the adjustments even accurately reflect the full scope of how many extra runs over the long haul this team gives up on defense.

What a godsend Phillips has been to this team.

Ron Madden
07-13-2006, 06:50 AM
These stats and others really show major defensive weakness on Reds team.

Stats show Lopez and Griffey, manning perhaps the two key defensive positions, dead last in each case.

If you go by fielding percentage alone, EE is at the bottom of all major league players with 70 or more total chances. All positions.

By any measure, Dunn has defensive shortcomings in left field.

All of these guys have superior offensive ability. But if Krivsky and Narron really want to improve the defense, as they claim, they will need to make some changes in some of these positions. EE has youth on his side and Dunn is an offensive force. Hard to know what changes get made, but if there is a true commitment to defense, something has to change.

There is not one Fan in Reds Country who doesn't want this club to do "the little things" like fielding a ground ball and throwing to 1B to record an out.

Any ground ball out consist of 3 plays.

1. an infielder fielding the ball.

2. infielder throwing the ball.

3. firstbaseman fielding the throw.

I'm almost blind but I can see if we had anything resembling a firstbaseman Edwin and Lopez would not have anywhere near the amount of errors charged to them so far this season.

Lopez may lack range but other than Phillips he is our best option ae SS.

I loved Buddy Bell but I really believe if EE is given the chance he would be the best fielding Reds thirdbaseman I've ever seen.

I'd love to see Adam Dunn move to firstbase and that still could happen. Leftfield is not a critical defensive position.

I quess what I'm trying to say is I believe Dunn, Lopez and EE will all win alot more games with their bats then they'll ever lose with defense.

GAC
07-13-2006, 07:15 AM
All of these guys have superior offensive ability. But if Krivsky and Narron really want to improve the defense, as they claim, they will need to make some changes in some of these positions.

And that is the crux of the situation IMO - players manning the wrong positions.

I think Dunn, so far, has 8 errors in LF, which is quite high. Personally, I think Dunn is gonna be a defensive liabilty wherever he plays. He has 1Bman though written all over him.

I wish this management had the balls to make the changes like they did with the '75 team (in order to get Foster in the lineup). It was gutsy then, but needs to be done now IMO.

But this management continues to "bend" to the desires/will of a few players (as to where they will/won't play). It's more like appeasement - gotta keep your stars happy. ;)

I don't really think much is gonna happen in this department this year. But after the season - Hat is no longer under contract and Aurilia has a mutual option. I'd love to see this team retain Hat as a utility/back-up to Dunn, who I'd move (with or without his permission) to 1B.

I'd put Deno in CF (while Bruce continues to impress at Dayton), and move Jr to LF. Some say that Bruce is more suited for the corner OF slots, which is fine - opens up options on Kearns. If Jr complains about it - and I really don't think he'd get that much support from the fans/media - then he can either retire or ask for a trade. Boy would that solve a problem right there!

But I bet if they sat down with Jr in the off-season and talked to him about it, he would do it for the sake of improving/winning.

Freel is signed for next year and will get a raise from 2 Mil to 2.65 IF he gets 650 PAs.

But my '07 lineup would look like this....

LF- Jr
CF - Deno (and Freel)
RF - Kearns
3B - EE
SS - Phillips
2B - Lopez (unless he is traded, then I'd have a spot for Freel)
1B - Dunn/Hatteberg
C - Ross/Larue

Cooper
07-13-2006, 09:05 AM
GAC: totally agree.

GAC
07-13-2006, 01:48 PM
One of my knocks on Narron is that he tries to be "Mr Nice Guy" and give everyone playing time.

I thoroughly agree that players need breaks now and then. But I think Narron goes too far.

If guys don't want to accept their roles on the team that I assign as manager then T-O-U-G-H. It's my job to put the best lineup out there on a day-to-day basis, and in the long run it's my butt on the line if it doesn't work or the team is losing.

I guess I'd be a terrible manager.... or the most hated! :lol:

jimbo
07-13-2006, 02:12 PM
One of my knocks on Narron is that he tries to be "Mr Nice Guy" and give everyone playing time.

I thoroughly agree that players need breaks now and then. But I think Narron goes too far.

If guys don't want to accept their roles on the team that I assign as manager then T-O-U-G-H. It's my job to put the best lineup out there on a day-to-day basis, and in the long run it's my butt on the line if it doesn't work or the team is losing.

I guess I'd be a terrible manager.... or the most hated! :lol:

I understand what you are saying, but I think a manager has to have the respect of the players. If you do not have that respect, it could very well lead to a sour clubhouse. I think you have to find that place in the middle, which IMO, Narron does quite well.

Always Red
07-13-2006, 02:32 PM
Garner's taken some heat for not having Aundrew Jones out in center, in the 9th inning of the ASG, instead of Carlos Beltran. Looking at these figures (and I believe them, because I think these are spot-on as concerns the Reds, whom I see every day), maybe Phil Garner has more brains than the media thinks he does...

M2
07-13-2006, 02:50 PM
Stats show Lopez and Griffey, manning perhaps the two key defensive positions, dead last in each case.

Which is why I find suggestions to "fix" the defense by tweaking the IF or OF corners to be preposterous.

The Reds have got some grave up-the-middle defensive issues. Fix those and then you can assess how critical the need to make adjustments on the corners is.

texasdave
07-13-2006, 02:56 PM
going by what i have read on this board it seems as if the majority of the people posting here feel that EE has great range and RA is rooted to the spot out in the field. i don't see the reds play very often, so i assumed this was correct. however after looking up the defensive statistics listed on www.cnnsi.com, i am not so sure who the better fielder is. if you look at zone rating (the percentage of balls hit into a fielder's area that a fielder makes a play on) RA gets to 82.4%, while EE only handles 73.2%. if you look at range factor, once again RA outperforms EE. this time 2.57 to 2.51. and if you look at fielding percentage it is not even close. RA has a fielding percentage of .958 while EE checks in at .890. after seeing this it would seem reasonable that RA is the better defensive player. just sayin.

blumj
07-13-2006, 02:56 PM
Garner's taken some heat for not having Aundrew Jones out in center, in the 9th inning of the ASG, instead of Carlos Beltran. Looking at these figures (and I believe them, because I think these are spot-on as concerns the Reds, whom I see every day), maybe Phil Garner has more brains than the media thinks he does...
It was my impression that he was taking heat for leaving Jones on the bench with Carlos Lee in the outfield with a 1 run lead, as well as for leaving Cabrera at 3rd with Rolen on the bench.

Always Red
07-13-2006, 03:54 PM
It was my impression that he was taking heat for leaving Jones on the bench with Carlos Lee in the outfield with a 1 run lead, as well as for leaving Cabrera at 3rd with Rolen on the bench.
true, that and NOT having Jones in CF, instead of Beltran.

dabvu2498
07-13-2006, 04:02 PM
going by what i have read on this board it seems as if the majority of the people posting here feel that EE has great range and RA is rooted to the spot out in the field. i don't see the reds play very often, so i assumed this was correct. however after looking up the defensive statistics listed on www.cnnsi.com, i am not so sure who the better fielder is. if you look at zone rating (the percentage of balls hit into a fielder's area that a fielder makes a play on) RA gets to 82.4%, while EE only handles 73.2%. if you look at range factor, once again RA outperforms EE. this time 2.57 to 2.51. and if you look at fielding percentage it is not even close. RA has a fielding percentage of .958 while EE checks in at .890. after seeing this it would seem reasonable that RA is the better defensive player. just sayin.
As has been said, many times, many ways, don't let your statistics get in the way of a good story!!! ;)

Ltlabner
07-13-2006, 04:13 PM
going by what i have read on this board it seems as if the majority of the people posting here feel that EE has great range and RA is rooted to the spot out in the field. i don't see the reds play very often, so i assumed this was correct. however after looking up the defensive statistics listed on www.cnnsi.com, i am not so sure who the better fielder is. if you look at zone rating (the percentage of balls hit into a fielder's area that a fielder makes a play on) RA gets to 82.4%, while EE only handles 73.2%. if you look at range factor, once again RA outperforms EE. this time 2.57 to 2.51. and if you look at fielding percentage it is not even close. RA has a fielding percentage of .958 while EE checks in at .890. after seeing this it would seem reasonable that RA is the better defensive player. just sayin.

Good job taking the time to look up the facts. When you add this to the VORP data on the ORG side, it further supports that just perhaps RA is not the root of all evil and that EE isn't the savior of the free world.

Let the freak out begin.....

gonelong
07-14-2006, 09:49 AM
Good job taking the time to look up the facts. When you add this to the VORP data on the ORG side, it further supports that just perhaps RA is not the root of all evil and that EE isn't the savior of the free world.

One guy is one his way up, the other on his way down. It makes no sense to play the guy on his way down, retarding the development of the guy on the way up.

GL

dabvu2498
07-14-2006, 10:13 AM
One guy is one his way up, the other on his way down. It makes no sense to play the guy on his way down, retarding the development of the guy on the way up.

GL
Unless you're trying to "win now."

Offensive:
EE: 161 Runs Created/150 games (based on this years stats)
RA: 138 Runs Created/150 games (based on this years stats)

Advantage: Edwin (+23 runs)

RA: 12 Runs Saved/150 games (as shown in Post #1 of this thread)
EE: -18 Runs Saved/150 games ^^^

Advantage: Rich (+30 runs)

Overall advantage: Rich (+7 runs)

May I also add that Narron seemingly had no problem letting EE play most every day in the 2nd half of last season, trying to let him cut his teeth at the big league level.

In a season like this, when you're in a race and certain orifaces are a bit more puckered, "baseball guys" like Narron tend to fall back on guys who have played in high pressure situations before.

gonelong
07-14-2006, 10:40 AM
Unless you're trying to "win now."
Overall advantage: Rich (+7 runs)


That's close enough for me to have EE in there every day and have Rich filling in from time to time.

Given the sample size, I don't consider that to be a significant difference, though I'd agree that Narron considers Aurilla a better option than EE to win today. I don't agree with him though.

To me, the difference between them is negligible at this point, with EE clearly (IMO) having the better chance to improve on his numbers, especially the fielding numbers. He had a .944 fielding percentage last season so its not like its far fetched to think he can do better than the .890 he has put up so far this season. I have looked for EE's minor league fielding percentages but have had no luck locating them. I'll keep looking.

GL

jimbo
07-14-2006, 04:50 PM
One guy is one his way up, the other on his way down. It makes no sense to play the guy on his way down, retarding the development of the guy on the way up.

GL

I think it does make sense if you are contending for a playoff spot. The main concern for the Reds is winning, not developing a third baseman.

gonelong
07-14-2006, 05:12 PM
I think it does make sense if you are contending for a playoff spot. The main concern for the Reds is winning, not developing a third baseman.

I guess it boils down to how you rank EE vs. RA. I can't find anything that would lead me to belive that RA is a better overall choice than EE, straight up.

IMO putting EE at 3B would allow the team to do both.

GL