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pedro
07-13-2006, 06:44 PM
only marginally.

Enough to make him a much better solution than Castro.

Clayton's road OPS is .700

Lopez's Road OPS is .705

Clayton is a better SS than Lopez.

I don't think the difference is as big as people think.

kbrake
07-13-2006, 06:44 PM
Kind of in a hurry and just got home from work. Just curious what the overall reaction of the board has been if someone could fill me in. Sorry dont have time to read through it yet. Thanks.

Ltlabner
07-13-2006, 06:44 PM
Denorfia takes Kearns place, Freel gets more at bats, improved bullpen might cut the need for 6 runs a game... wow what a concept.

Exactly. And Narron and Kriv both said this is Deno's chance to shine and that they think he's ready (ie. plan on seeing him alot).

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 06:45 PM
Kind of in a hurry and just got home from work. Just curious what the overall reaction of the board has been if someone could fill me in. Sorry dont have time to read through it yet. Thanks.
Not many like it.. including I

But as always, we shall see

flyer85
07-13-2006, 06:45 PM
Denforfia = unproven commodity (as much as I love the kid to death)

And you still have to factor in Milton and Mays/Claussen pitching 2 nights a week.I thought the pen was shaping up to improve with Guardado and a healthy Mercker and Belisle. I thought the biggest problem this team was going to have in the 2nd half were the 4/5 spots in the rotation.

vaticanplum
07-13-2006, 06:45 PM
Georgie is pissed. He will always sacrifice future for now.

I really do think the reason Cashman and Torre are still there is because George agreed to lay off the last couple of years. They said as much last off-season, between the lines. George seems to have been talked into having a bit of foresight and the Yankees' farm system is slowly improving. Now, he's still nuts and win-hungry, and would trade almost any player in the farm system to win. Except, I think, Hughes. They are in desperate need of young pitching. They're in more danger of bringing him up too early than of trading him.

Heath
07-13-2006, 06:46 PM
Well, we disagree on this then. My impression is that he's being regarded as one of the 5-10 unmovable prospects in baseball. Even with Steinbrenner at the helm.

Vatican - he's the only prospect the Yankees have left. I think that's why he's always mentioned.

I'd agree with jpup - he's just "marketable" since he's a Yank and all.

Cyclone792
07-13-2006, 06:46 PM
Well, time to take a look at what we got ... this could be ugly ...

Gary Majewski: 26-years-old


Lifetime K/9 ....... 5.32
Lifetime BB/9 ...... 3.71
Lifetime HR/9 ...... 0.44
Lifetime K/BB ...... 1.43

Lifetime DIPS ERA .. 3.92
Lifetime ERA ....... 3.27

Lifetime BABIP ..... .292

Road HR/9 .......... 0.54
Road DIPS ERA ...... 3.88

So basically we're getting a guy who's been maybe slightly BABIP hit lucky, doesn't strike many guys out at all, walks too many guys, but has the uncanny ability to keep the ball in the yard.

Key question for Majewski: How will his HR/9 rate fare once pitching half his games in GABP? His road HR/9 rate, while a small sample in only 83 innings, does look promising so hopefully the spike up in home runs allowed for Majewski is minimal. Still, if this guy starts serving up the long ball, he could start getting torched real quick.

Bill Bray: Just turned 23-years-old


Lifetime K/9 ....... 6.26
Lifetime BB/9 ...... 3.52
Lifetime HR/9 ...... 0.78
Lifetime K/BB ...... 1.78

Lifetime DIPS ERA .. 4.09
Lifetime ERA ....... 3.91

Lifetime BABIP ..... .310

Minors K/9 ........ 10.53
Minors BB/9 ........ 2.68
Minors HR/9 ........ 0.96
Minors K/BB ........ 3.93

Based purely off statistics, Bray's not a bad lefty out of the pen. I'd like to see him carry his solid minor league K/9 rate up to the majors, but time will tell if he's able to accomplish that. His home run rate in the minors may be a tad worrisome as the combination of major league hitters + GABP could send that figure spiking higher than one bomb per nine innings.

The good news for Bray is he's a young 23-years-old and he's already reached the majors. Hopefully development will continue for him over the next few seasons and we may have a solid, young reliever on our hands.

Brendan Harris: 25-years-old (26 in August, 2006)


Minors BA ....... .294
Minors OBP ...... .360
Minors SLG ...... .470
Minors OPS ...... .830

Minors PA/BB .... 11.67
Minors PA/HR .... 38.69
Minors PA/2B .... 16.45

Minors SB/CS .... 37/21

Minor league projections over 600 PAs ... 30-35 doubles, 50 walks and 15 home runs.

Harris' plate discipline in the minors wasn't abysmal, but it's not looking promising that he'll be able to draw walks with a great frequency at the big league level. That could pose serious problems since he could very well become an out machine without the ability to hit for much power. He looks to be primarily a singles and doubles hitter, and the key questions for Harris are how many walks will he take at the major league level, and how good is his defense. If both questions provide good news for the Reds, he could be a useful player for us. If one is lacking, then he could become a source of frustation for fans.

I'm not sure yet what Daryl Thompson (20-years-old) is doing so far in 2006, and I'd need updated minor league stats for him this season to give him a fair analysis.

Royce Clayton is a veteran trash heap, and there's not much more to be said about him. Offensively, he's a lifetime .682 OPS (wow that's bad). Defensively, here were the bottom eight shortstops in PMR for 2005:


Runs Above Average
Original Alternative

Derek Jeter -13.2134 -14.3688
Russ M Adams -13.4525 -13.4673
Royce Clayton -13.8171 -18.4288
Jhonny Peralta -15.0402 -14.8627
Felipe Lopez -18.5375 -21.2106
Angel Berroa -18.5556 -10.7785
Michael Young -19.2755 -17.3725
Jose Reyes -22.9404 -25.8656

Royce Clayton was a very good defensive shortstop from 1994-2003. In 2004, however, he had -10 fielding runs above average. In 2005, he had -3 fielding runs above average. In 2006, he has -6 fielding runs above average so far.

Whoever in the Reds organization is telling us that Royce Clayton is an outstanding defensive player is living in the past. Age has caught up to Clayton, and what was once a very good defensive shortstop is now below average.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 06:46 PM
Denforfia = unproven commodity (as much as I love the kid to death)

And you still have to factor in Milton and Mays/Claussen pitching 2 nights a week.

I still think the Reds need, at least, another big time starter to do well. I almost think they can make the playoffs with what they have unless Harang or Arroyo gets hurt, but they will lose in the 1st round.

RedLegSuperStar
07-13-2006, 06:46 PM
Buster Olney said Griffey or Dunn could be traded to the Yanks for Phillip Hughes.

I would deal Griff for Hughes. Dunn? Hell no.

And we plan on contending?

Jpup
07-13-2006, 06:49 PM
And we plan on contending?

Jr being traded wouldn't hurt the team IMO. You could stick Freel in center and be just fine.

GoReds
07-13-2006, 06:49 PM
Bray reminds me of a earlier version of BJ Ryan.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 06:49 PM
Bray reminds me of a earlier version of BJ Ryan.

except he doesn't have "stuff" anywhere near a BJ Ryan.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 06:50 PM
Bray reminds me of a earlier version of BJ Ryan.it is a valid comparison. Funky delivery with a good fastball and a nasty slider.

harangatang
07-13-2006, 06:50 PM
Believe it or not I really like this trade. I think we got some bullpen help that throw HARD, a possible 2b in Harris, a SP prospect, and a middle infielder who plays good defense. Sure Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner have POTENTIAL but it seems that any of 3 have been CONSISTENT. We all know Kearns has the potential to be good if he can play everyday but unforunately injuries have kept him from doing that. Who knows when he's going down next. Lopez has shown the potential to steal bases now but his power numbers have dropped dramatically to pre-2005 levels. Lopez is a Scott Boras client and I would rather see him traded then either 1) let him walk, because he isn't worth a huge multiyear contract or 2) pay him a bunch of money when Brandon Phillps can play better both offensively and defensively. Wagner shows a great example of why Homer Bailey shouldn't be rushed to the majors and whether (no pun intended) he'll work out or not keeps leaning towards that he won't but it's a conservative gamble.

Not mention this trade also sets the stage for Chris Denorfia to finally get his starting job and it appears that Bergolla may get a chance of at 2b too.

I think we should all give the trade some time, anyone wish that Brandon Phillips wasn't a Red? I mean after all we don't need anymore 2nd basemen.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 06:51 PM
except he doesn't have "stuff" anywhere near a BJ Ryan.Ryan doesn't throw any harder, he has just refined his command over the years.

Johnny Footstool
07-13-2006, 06:51 PM
Of all qualifying MLB shortstops, Lopez is tied for 10th in OPS this season.

Kearns is 10th in OPS for qualifying rightfielders. Expand that to include all outfielders, and Kearns is 28th in OPS.

That means they're pretty good. They'd be upgrades for 20 of the 30 MLB teams.

vaticanplum
07-13-2006, 06:51 PM
he's not that good, IMO. he may become something, but he is fools gold, I think.

from a recent NYTimes article:

"Twice in his last four starts, Hughes has allowed only one hit. His earned run average in that stretch is 0.96, and he has 33 strikeouts in 28 innings. Since the Yankees drafted him out of high school in the first round in 2004, the right-handed Hughes is 15-7 with a 2.40 earned run average and more strikeouts than innings.

Hughes toyed with the hitters Friday. He had a perfect game through four innings and a no-hitter through seven, mixing curveballs and changeups with fastballs at the knees from 89 to 95 miles an hour.

After the near no-hitter, Billy Masse, the Trenton manager, talked more about Hughes's needing to develop his off-speed pitches to improve. It sounded ridiculous, after the way Hughes had just overwhelmed hitters, and Masse finally relented. Get better?

"I don't know how," he said, laughing. "Is he going to give up negative hits?"

That's pretty good I'd say. He's their best prospect, their highest-level prospect, but not their only one. I just haven't gotten the impression he's going anywhere.

Sorry to hijack the thread...

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 06:52 PM
I guess the bottom line is just "wait and see" -- though, the plus side is that the waiting and seeing won't take too long, since everyone (save for Thompson) is going to show what they've got almost immediately.

With Ramirez (who I'm not sold on), Mays, Milton, and Claussen all manning the rotation, though -- I'm not certain the Reds didn't just buy a couple extra lifeboats for the Titanic.

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 06:52 PM
anyone wish that Brandon Phillips wasn't a Red?
Indians fans ? :D

Puffy
07-13-2006, 06:52 PM
Jr being traded wouldn't hurt the team IMO. You could stick Freel in center and be just fine.

Yeah, I agree - trading one of the top 50 players of all time, a guy with 50 RBI in just under 60 starts wouldn't hurt at all. Nope, Freel's defense and different offense would easily replace Junior.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 06:54 PM
With Ramirez (who I'm not sold on), Mays, Milton, and Claussen all manning the rotation, though -- I'm not certain the Reds didn't just buy a couple extra lifeboats for the Titanic.Ramirez is a back of the rotation starter. I can live with a guy that has three pitches, hits 91-92 and isn't a gopherball pitcher.

However, I tend to agree that the back of the rotation with Milton/Mays/Claussen will be a 2nd half disaster.

pedro
07-13-2006, 06:55 PM
Yeah, I agree - trading one of the top 50 players of all time, a guy with 50 RBI in just under 60 starts wouldn't hurt at all. Nope, Freel's defense and different offense would easily replace Junior.

OTOH, KG's OBP is .303 and he doesn't have any range in CF.

TMBS, trading KG would only help if the Reds got some actual talent that helped this year.

dsmith421
07-13-2006, 06:56 PM
The thing I don't get is this: does Krivsky honestly believe this team can hang in the race with a rotation of Arroyo, Harang, Ramirez, Milton, and Mays? If he does, is he a moron?

Majewski and Bray are fine pickups. But when you trade two of your most valuable trading chips for two decent middle relievers, one of the worst hitters in the game, and the second coming of Brandon Larson, how is that calculated to make you compete for a title this season? How does it not hamstring you in preparation for 2007?

Jpup
07-13-2006, 06:56 PM
Ryan doesn't throw any harder, he has just refined his command over the years.

"stuff" not velocity. hopefully one day he will.


Yeah, I agree - trading one of the top 50 players of all time, a guy with 50 RBI in just under 60 starts wouldn't hurt at all. Nope, Freel's defense and different offense would easily replace Junior.

have you looked at Jr.'s number this year? He makes A LOT of outs. He is the absolute worst center fielder in the national league. Why would it hurt to lose him?

Johnny Footstool
07-13-2006, 06:56 PM
Ah, but some people will pay that much for jeans if they fit spectacularly, and if they ultimately lead to bigger and better things. Just saying.

I suppose people have the ability to convince themselves that they have to pay that much for Levis. Others realize that Levis don't really come at a premium and you can find them much cheaper.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 06:56 PM
OTOH, KG's OBP is .303 and he doesn't have any range in CF.
they could solve that by moving him to RF.

harangatang
07-13-2006, 06:56 PM
Indians fans ? :D
Exactly.

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 06:57 PM
The thing I don't get is this: does Krivsky honestly believe this team can hang in the race with a rotation of Arroyo, Harang, Ramirez, Milton, and Mays? If he does, is he a moron?

That's another reason I think they might deal Dunn, if the goal is win now then we need a starter..badly.

We shall see.

Kc61
07-13-2006, 06:57 PM
This trade is iffy to me, but the good thing about it is that Krivsky did not trade his top prospects for relief help. Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Ward, etc. are all still around. This shows that Krivsky values these guys, as he should. He also apparently values Deno, who will now get a shot.

Indeed, Krivsky added to the "system" with the AAA infielder and the young pitcher.

I guess the big issue for me on this trade is that the Reds now have three older infielders, Castro, Clayton and RA, and I don't see who the future shortstop is. Perhaps Phillips will move in the off-season. You need a good shortstop in his prime.

I think, when the two new relievers come in, that Joe Mays will be gone along with another current reliever (Standridge?). My guess is that Krivsky's next move is for another starter.

Puffy
07-13-2006, 06:58 PM
OTOH, KG's OBP is .303 and he doesn't have any range in CF.

TMBS, trading KG would only help if the Reds got some actual talent that helped this year.

He is still the threat in the Reds lineup. Opposing teams pitch to Dunn in the 2 hole just because Junior is behind him. Yes, his OBP sucks and yes I am worried about how he seems to be refusing to walk right now, but Junior's numbers will go up. Less than a month ago he was at .290 and .340. He'll be back there, he always is.

pedro
07-13-2006, 06:58 PM
they could solve that by moving him to RF.


That's not going to solve the fact that he is now making outs at a place faster than Jose Guillen.

pedro
07-13-2006, 06:59 PM
He is still the threat in the Reds lineup. Opposing teams pitch to Dunn in the 2 hole just because Junior is behind him. Yes, his OBP sucks and yes I am worried about how he seems to be refusing to walk right now, but Junior's numbers will go up. Less than a month ago he was at .290 and .340. He'll be back there, he always is.

I hope you're right.

Strikes Out Looking
07-13-2006, 06:59 PM
I don't know if this has anything to do with getting rid of Lopez, but EE is at third tonight.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 06:59 PM
That's another reason I think they might deal Dunn, if the goal is win now then we need a starter..badly.

We shall see.

The big time pitchers out there probably aren't going to be had with Adam Dunn. Oakland is not going to pay for Dunn and the Reds can't afford to trade him for Zito in his walk year. Florida isn't going to trade Willis for him unless it's a 3 team trade because they aren't going to add payroll. Who gives up an arm worthy of Adam Dunn? I'm not even saying that Zito or Willis are, but you get my point?

pedro
07-13-2006, 07:00 PM
That's another reason I think they might deal Dunn, if the goal is win now then we need a starter..badly.

We shall see.


They're not going to trade Dunn.

FlyingPig
07-13-2006, 07:00 PM
My .02 is that I don't like losing FeLo and Austin, but neither one was probably gonna be a Red after this season anyway...


I'm betting one or both won't be a Nat by the end of THIS season...



Besides...we really, REALLY need bullpen help...as does just about every other team in the hunt.



Remember how we were all bashing Kearns this time last year?

Rojo
07-13-2006, 07:00 PM
Seven points:

1) This trade shows guts on Krivsky's part. He traded two everyday players away and got none back

2) This doesn't make it a bad trade. Winning games is more important than winning trades.

3) Lopez is a mirage. Let's face it, his offense only looked good in context of his being a shorstop--and he's not a shortstop. He's a poor man's Juan Samuel.

4) Kearns could've been replaced with Reggie Sanders.

5) Thompson might turn out to be a monster.

6) We can make the Denorfia/Phillips shift we've all clamored for.

7) 1000 flowers, baby!

vaticanplum
07-13-2006, 07:01 PM
They're not going to trade Dunn.

I'm only going to listen to Pedro from now on. He makes me feel better.

Puffy
07-13-2006, 07:01 PM
have you looked at Jr.'s number this year? He makes A LOT of outs. He is the absolute worst center fielder in the national league. Why would it hurt to lose him?

I've looked at his numbers more than you have - he has had a bad half of the year - it happens. Jeez. He has been bad, yet he still has 18 HR's, 50 RBI and is OPSing over .800.

My gawd, its half a year. Its gonna get better. It always does.

And you wanna solve the CF defense problem, thats easy - move him to RF and put Deno in center. Easy.

Col_ IN Reds fan
07-13-2006, 07:01 PM
Ok I was a bit shocked hearing this on radio. I have now absorbed it and I like the trade. The Reds need pitching. Today they got it. I have been tired the last few weeks of watching this team blow leads. Bronson probably loves it. This team had no chance status quo. Now they do.

pedro
07-13-2006, 07:01 PM
The big time pitchers out there probably aren't going to be had with Adam Dunn. Oakland is not going to pay for Dunn and the Reds can't afford to trade him for Zito in his walk year. Florida isn't going to trade Willis for him unless it's a 3 team trade because they aren't going to add payroll. Who gives up an arm worthy of Adam Dunn? I'm not even saying that Zito or Willis are, but you get my point?

Oakland isn't going to trade Zito anyway. They'll let him walk and try to contend this year.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 07:02 PM
I'm only going to listen to Pedro from now on. He makes me feel better.

They can't trade Dunn -- not unless they got better starting pitching in a big hurry -- because they're going to need him to up the load on his shoulders w/ Kearns gone.

Somebody's gotta deliver the mail and get a lead to those shiny new bullpen pitchers that we paid so dearly for.

Heath
07-13-2006, 07:04 PM
I'm only going to listen to Pedro from now on. He makes me feel better.

On top of that he likes walks in the park, helping old ladies across the street, and reading to local kids at the library.

:D

Whoops - forgot - he saves kitties from trees. He's the Chris Denorfia of posters.

GoReds
07-13-2006, 07:04 PM
The big time pitchers out there probably aren't going to be had with Adam Dunn. Oakland is not going to pay for Dunn and the Reds can't afford to trade him for Zito in his walk year. Florida isn't going to trade Willis for him unless it's a 3 team trade because they aren't going to add payroll. Who gives up an arm worthy of Adam Dunn? I'm not even saying that Zito or Willis are, but you get my point?

Well, the trade today makes it more of a possibility that the Reds COULD afford a pitcher such as Willis or Zito if the Reds found a way to trade for one of them.

I like the fact that WK is making deals that can help the club now without sacrificing top prospects, payflex or anyone of the "core" players. No, I don't consider Lopez or Kearns to be "core".

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 07:04 PM
On top of that he likes walks in the park, helping old ladies across the street, and reading to local kids at the library.

:D
That's why people vote for him

harangatang
07-13-2006, 07:04 PM
Tim Kurkjian just said the most important part of this deal was that this allows the Nats to trade Soriano to the Angels or Yankees. :D

boobhat
07-13-2006, 07:04 PM
i trust krivsky. lopez wasnt playing since the reds signed castro. it made some sense that phillips would go to short and aurilla would play second, but someone on wlw said that wouldnt be the case. clayton stinks but atleast he cut his hair so his hat wont be sitting high on top of his dreads with the reds. i dont mind trading kearns because denoforia plays everyday..........i hope.

BCubb2003
07-13-2006, 07:07 PM
“We paid a steep price,” Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. “I’m sure this will be a controversial trade. I know a lot of people will be leaving nasty messages on my voicemail, and I’ll have some who think it’s great.”

“Philosophically, we believe that when you have a chance to trade a middle reliever for an everyday player, that’s helpful,” Bowden said. “Over the long run, if you look at a player for the next five to seven years, pitchers are more of a risk to injuries than everyday players.”

Mutaman
07-13-2006, 07:09 PM
“Philosophically, we believe that when you have a chance to trade a middle reliever for an everyday player, that’s helpful,” Bowden said. “Over the long run, if you look at a player for the next five to seven years, pitchers are more of a risk to injuries than everyday players.”

Which might be one of the reasons the Reds bullp-en has been in such a state for the last few years.

LawFive
07-13-2006, 07:09 PM
This trade is iffy to me, but the good thing about it is that Krivsky did not trade his top prospects for relief help. Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Ward, etc. are all still around. This shows that Krivsky values these guys, as he should.

Maybe he's saving them for another 6th starter. :evil:

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 07:10 PM
Which might be one of the reasons the Reds bullp-en has been in such a state for the last few years.

Actually, when Bowden was around it was, by all rights, team strength -- what with guys like Scott Sullivan, Gabe White, Kent Mercker, Scott Williamson, Chris Reitsma and Danny Graves trotting out on a nightly basis.

It was the starters that were for crap.

registerthis
07-13-2006, 07:10 PM
I don't know if this has anything to do with getting rid of Lopez, but EE is at third tonight.

Well he was there prior to gettign injured. That's not particularly surprising.

Puffy
07-13-2006, 07:11 PM
Which might be one of the reasons the Reds bullp-en has been in such a state for the last few years.

I don't understand your point here - if its a shot at Bowden the Reds always had a better than average bullpen under Bowden. Starters were always a different story, but Bowden knew how to piece together a bullpen. O'Brien is the one who neglected the bullpen.

If that wasn't your point I apologize though.

Puffy
07-13-2006, 07:12 PM
Actually, when Bowden was around it was, by all rights, team strength -- what with guys like Scott Sullivan, Gabe White, Kent Mercker, Scott Williamson, Chris Reitsma and Danny Graves trotting out on a nightly basis.

It was the starters that were for crap.

I posted mine first - copycat (and stupid slow computer for making it appear, I say appear, that you posted first).

:mooner:

StillFunkyB
07-13-2006, 07:15 PM
My knee-jerk reaction was to puke.

After really looking it over, it's not THAT bad of a deal RIGHT NOW.

This could be a horrible deal, then again it could be very good if Lopez becomes extremely expensive, and Kearns continues his health issues/inconsistency.

I really liked Kearns, and Lopez, though.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 07:17 PM
If this deal works out, Krivsky is GM of the year. If it doesn't, people will want his head.

I like the fact he is not gun shy unlike some other GM who used to grace us with his presence....

:obrien:

Mutaman
07-13-2006, 07:18 PM
Actually, when Bowden was around it was, by all rights, team strength -- what with guys like Scott Sullivan, Gabe White, Kent Mercker, Scott Williamson, Chris Reitsma and Danny Graves trotting out on a nightly basis.

It was the starters that were for crap.


True, I'm talking about since he left, and the state of our present bullpen is due in part to his phiosophy . Bowden, like most of the posters here, focuses on offence, while Wayne focuses on pitching. I prefer the latter approach.

westofyou
07-13-2006, 07:18 PM
Actually, when Bowden was around it was, by all rights, team strength -- what with guys like Scott Sullivan, Gabe White, Kent Mercker, Scott Williamson, Chris Reitsma and Danny Graves trotting out on a nightly basis.

It was the starters that were for crap.
Actually the Reds have been force feeding the BP for fifty years now and starving the starters, this past decade shows the complete lack of drafts that used to churn out the relief monsters the Reds had, and most of them were the kid of guys Branch Rickey taught Howsam to love, big hard throwing RH's over 6 feet.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 07:19 PM
2 pitchers go tomorrow...

Standridge, I would guess would be one.


Final auditions tonight.

RedsBaron
07-13-2006, 07:19 PM
I can't say I'm all that impressed by the strikeouts-per-innings ratio of the relievers the Reds have acquired.

919191
07-13-2006, 07:20 PM
Krivsky was just on The Inside Pitch, and he said this is Denorfia's time. I really was thinking he was jusr up to fill in today, but maybe he is the man now.

Ravenlord
07-13-2006, 07:21 PM
this is a decent short term trade. bullpen improves a bit, offense doesn't change a whole lot, and best of all, it has the potential to be an exceptional payoff in the future.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 07:22 PM
Whoa This is the biggest one in years... I too was shocked at the return but calming down it might make some more sense. We didn't trade Dunn or BP or EE -- whew...

I'm guilty of being attached to Kearns' potential and what he was back in 2002 at the age of 22. Ditto Lopez and his 2005 breakout. In reality they may be average starters with quickly escalating salaries.

Kearns career high is 387 AB in 2005, 18HR and 67RBI Career .358 OBP. He's never come within 60 pts of his sweet 2002 rookie season (.407 OBP and .907 OPS). Trading your best defensive OF is a bit odd given the current defensive mantra.

Lopez certainly had much higher value last offseason. He's a career .745 OPS guy with questionable defense and a rising salary.

Can't say I know the two BP guys from Adam, but Majewski has a career .688 OPS over 107IP. And he's cheap for a while. Bray looks interesting, cheap and young.

Clayton is fodder and irrelevant other than a stopgap SS for 2006.

I'm still not sure why you wouldn't deal Lopez + Kearns separately.

Salary freedom in 2007?? Lopez + Kearns would have been a $10M hit in 2007. If this $10M is redeployed to a #2 starter and a pen arm then we've got something.

Now how to get rid of the KGJ/Milton/Larue $25M deadweight anchor in 2007.

Plan has to be getting Mays out of the rotation. Biggest weakness by far now.

This should keep DenO + EE in the plans for years to come.

johngalt
07-13-2006, 07:22 PM
..and before that Dave Miley had him swinging for the fences.

He's more Willie Mays Hayes than Willie Mays.

I seem to remember Lopez being an All-Star last season when he was "swinging for the fences" and doing crazy things like using his power and driving in runs.

Kc61
07-13-2006, 07:23 PM
2 pitchers go tomorrow...

Standridge, I would guess would be one.


Final auditions tonight.

Has to be Joe Mays who goes. Reds have an off-day Monday, don't need fifth starter for awhile, Mays obviously isn't the guy for that slot anyway.

One reliever, perhaps Standridge, and Mays will go.

And when EZ comes back this weekend, Reds will be back up to 12 pitchers and a position player will go. I think another deal will be made, this time perhaps including prospects for a starter.

harangatang
07-13-2006, 07:23 PM
If this deal works out, Krivsky is GM of the year. If it doesn't, people will want his head.

I like the fact he is not gun shy unlike some other GM who used to grace us with his presence....

:obrien:We have a GM who is willing to make bold moves and I really like that.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 07:26 PM
We have a GM who is willing to make bold moves and I really like that.

Just because it's bold doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Starting pitching is still a deadweight holding this club down, and it's going to be that way for the forseeable future, until Bailey and the crop of A-ballers start popping up in 2-3 years.

Why they felt the need to go blow the few trading chips they have on bullpen guys -- well, I don't know -- it reeks of desperation to please the boss right now.

We'll see.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 07:27 PM
We have a GM who is willing to make bold moves and I really like that.

He's the anti-Dan O in that regard.

Think about since end of 2005, the following are gone: Casey (I know it was DanO) /Kearns/Lopez/WMP

919191
07-13-2006, 07:29 PM
I wonder if Lopez will be Larkin's "assignment" again?

reds44
07-13-2006, 07:30 PM
So who else overrated Lopez in April?


*raises hand*

harangatang
07-13-2006, 07:31 PM
[I]t reeks of desperation to please the boss right now.

We'll see.
I think it reeks of trying to improve this ballclub both in the short term and long term. We'll see.

kyred14
07-13-2006, 07:32 PM
Now the initial shock has worn off, I don't think the trade was that bad. I get the feeling that Felo '06, rather than '05 is more like the real Felo. Kearns is injury prone, and has never been close to the player he was before the King thing. i doubt Wagner will ever live up to the hype.

The trade would be better if Clayton wasn't in it. BP should be SS right now. However, it helps the BP, and gives Deno a spot to play. Just don't go trading Dunn, Wayne.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 07:33 PM
Just because it's bold doesn't mean it's a good idea.

Starting pitching is still a deadweight holding this club down, and it's going to be that way for the forseeable future, until Bailey and the crop of A-ballers start popping up in 2-3 years.

Why they felt the need to go blow the few trading chips they have on bullpen guys -- well, I don't know -- it reeks of desperation to please the boss right now.

We'll see.

Salary freedom in 2007 and beyond is a big factor. How they spend the $10M they won't be paying Kearns/Lopez next season is key. We have to trust Krivsky with some blind faith on this one that he won't pee it away like the previous two GM regimes. There's your missing 4th rotation arm (#2 starter) and another setup man + an a 4th OF filler type for 2007.

If in contention for next season, I think we'll see Bailey up here by 2H 2007.

LawFive
07-13-2006, 07:34 PM
2 pitchers go tomorrow...

Standridge, I would guess would be one.


Final auditions tonight.


Bye-Bye Yan and Mays for the moment.

When Ramirez is needed (Sunday), adios to Standridge.

When a 5th starter is needed (Claussen eligible soon?), a position player will need to go. Wise might be the guy, looks like he's an odd man out even though they just brought him up.

Arroyo
Harang
Milton
Ramirez
Claussen

Bray
Belisle
Weathers
Mercker
Coffey
Majewski
Guardado

If Guardado does ok and Majewski and Bray live up to expectations, that's almost an acceptable staff...but, a lot of if's.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 07:35 PM
Now the initial shock has worn off, I don't think the trade was that bad. I get the feeling that Felo '06, rather than '05 is more like the real Felo. Kearns is injury prone, and has never been close to the player he was before the King thing. i doubt Wagner will ever live up to the hype.

The trade would be better if Clayton wasn't in it. BP should be SS right now. However, it helps the BP, and gives Deno a spot to play. Just don't go trading Dunn, Wayne.

Clayton is irrelevant here. Simply a 2006 stop gap.

Judge the trade on the other principles exchanged + Reds salary freedom going forward.

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 07:38 PM
Boy..Weathers would be the first pitcher I'm sending down

Aronchis
07-13-2006, 07:39 PM
Woah, the Reds just got blown up. I don't like the deal, because the Nationals couldn't include a top prospect, I would have searched for another club that could of and offered some of the bullpen pieces.

A classic baseball deal in any sense.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 07:40 PM
Boy..Weathers would be the first pitcher I'm sending down

DL Weathers, DFA Mays

SirFelixCat
07-13-2006, 07:41 PM
If Clayton were not the starting SS, this is a smart, forward-looking trade, imo.

Ltlabner
07-13-2006, 07:47 PM
While listening to the press conference to hear Kriv's rational behind the trade they asked about Clayton at SS. Kriv defered to Narron who promptly blurted out, "Royce Clayton KNOWS how to play the game the right way" (emphasis his).

I almost fell out of my chair. I'm not one to bash on Narron but could somebody help the poor guy out with a new "go-to" line?

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 07:48 PM
Lots of people know how to play the game.

The key is..some play it better then others

Joseph
07-13-2006, 07:49 PM
While listening to the press conference to hear Kriv's rational behind the trade they asked about Clayton at SS. Kriv defered to Narron who promptly blurted out, "Royce Clayton KNOWS how to play the game" (emphasis his).

I almost fell out of my chair. I'm not one to bash on Narron but could somebody help the poor guy out with a new "go-to" line?

Hey, in his defense he did say he [Clayton] knows how to play the game the right way. Thats a plus ;)

Just saying.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 07:53 PM
Clayton's also better defensively at shortstop.

Then there's the hitting thing...

I think people are putting a little to much into the Royce Clayton part of the deal. He's not the core of the deal...the pitching/prospects are.

VR
07-13-2006, 07:57 PM
must be the NW water, I'm with woy and OR on this one.


Let's wait and see. Bowden got the glamour (wow! two new starters!)
Krisvky got the small parts that might get them over a hump this year, but will also open up a new salary pocket in 2-3 years.



After Griff/Milt/LaRue are gone.....there is a long window until EE, BP, CD even get to arbitration. It opens up mega spending flexibility for years to come.


Royce Clayton though, I threw up in my mouth a little bit when I saw that. ;)

ochre
07-13-2006, 07:58 PM
Clayton's also better defensively at shortstop.

Then there's the hitting thing...

I think people are putting a little to much into the Royce Clayton part of the deal. He's not the core of the deal...the pitching/prospects are.
when you trade two starters for a list of 5 guys, one of whom, the only one that the casual fan even recognizes, is Royce Clayton, you can expect a bit of discussion.

westofyou
07-13-2006, 07:59 PM
Royce Clayton though, I threw up in my mouth a little bit when I saw that.Hummm Baby....

westofyou
07-13-2006, 08:00 PM
must be the NW water, I'm with woy and OR on this one.

Probably just the sun.


After Griff/Milt/LaRue are gone.....there is a long window until EE, BP, CD even get to arbitration. It opens up mega spending flexibility for years to come.

Yep with just Harang to up.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 08:03 PM
Well, at least Krivsky made some moves to compete this year....

on Mars.

schroomytunes
07-13-2006, 08:04 PM
Well, call me crazy but I dont think its all that bad of a move. For one Lopez is not having a great year, and Boras is his agent, do we really want him for @6-7 million a year. NO! Kearns on the other hand is having a good year, but he has a hard time staying healthy and he does K alot too. Wagner's just a throw in no biggie.
Krivsky has unloaded @ 10-12 million in upcoming salary and I guarentee that it gets used for starting pitching in 07. We must not veer from the future, we are getting solid pieces. IMHO we just upgraded the worst part of our team in a big way. Majewski and Bray give us a solid middle relief core now and are young. Clayton is a stop gap at short and if you look at his numbers he's not far off from Lopez. Not sure about Harris, but looks like maybe a decent utility guy. Thompson looks like he might have a future as a #3 guy in the rotation, either way he is a better prospect than Wagner. Say goodbye to Mays and Standridge, and I think Denorfia will be OK.

Highlifeman21
07-13-2006, 08:05 PM
This trade is iffy to me, but the good thing about it is that Krivsky did not trade his top prospects for relief help. Bailey, Bruce, Votto, Ward, etc. are all still around. This shows that Krivsky values these guys, as he should. He also apparently values Deno, who will now get a shot.

Indeed, Krivsky added to the "system" with the AAA infielder and the young pitcher.

I guess the big issue for me on this trade is that the Reds now have three older infielders, Castro, Clayton and RA, and I don't see who the future shortstop is. Perhaps Phillips will move in the off-season. You need a good shortstop in his prime.

I think, when the two new relievers come in, that Joe Mays will be gone along with another current reliever (Standridge?). My guess is that Krivsky's next move is for another starter.


Or it shows that Krivsky hasn't found a market for these guys b/c they are only worth something to us, rather than other teams, or he doesn't have a clue what these kids can do. I wouldn't be surprised if he was shopping some of our prospects, as he should as the GM.

Phillips should be our SS of the future, based on the current personnel, but after today's move, who's really certain of anything?

While I'm not sad in the least bit to see Lopez go, I'm really kinda puzzled by moving Kearns. Hopefully Bray and Majewski justify this move.

westofyou
07-13-2006, 08:06 PM
Well, at least Krivsky made some moves to compete this year....

on Mars.
You think this was for this year?

I don't.

Don't forget your Space Food Stick.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 08:07 PM
You think this was for this year?

I don't.

Don't forget your Space Food Stick.

Two major league relievers.

Darn tootin' it was for this year.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 08:08 PM
when you trade two starters for a list of 5 guys, one of whom, the only one that the casual fan even recognizes, is Royce Clayton, you can expect a bit of discussion.

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw Royce Clayton too....but after thinking and hearing Wayne's press conference, I don't feel as snubbed by it.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 08:10 PM
Phillips should be our SS of the future, based on the current personnel, but after today's move, who's really certain of anything?



He may be.....next season...

If so, he'll make the switch during spring training I would say.

redsandrails
07-13-2006, 08:11 PM
Alright..... y'all are going to love this so much..... I found out about the trade about an hour ago. After about 15 minutes of screaming profanities beyond senselessness and punching household appliances (almost broke the oven window) I garned enough mental focus to write a song based on the trade (I am a singer/songwriter about 2-3 songs away from really going on tour and trying to be noticed). When I get in a groove songs come out awful quick and this one turned out very good. Unfortunately my band is pretty spread out (my band's guitarist picks up songs in a matter of seconds, he's amazing) and I have a friend who does all my recording but unfortunately he doesn't have his cell nor is he at his house. I am about 75% done, however, and I mean right now it's just a piano song but it would turn out MUCH better with a full band. Anyways, I'll try to post it soon.... I might have to try Myspace right now.

-Greg

redsandrails
07-13-2006, 08:12 PM
One more thought.... the passing the torch of SS from Concepcion to Larkin to Lopez is officially no more.

RedlegJake
07-13-2006, 08:17 PM
I am in the minority here. I like the trade. I trust Krivsky and have felt this team was fundamentally flawed. Even in an offensive era you have to have some defense, and the cupboard was so bare in pitching that a trade likethis was necessary. Majewski, Bray and Harris are solid pickups, R-L bullpen help, a futureinfielder. Clayton is for defense now, is cheap and lets Phillips become the SS of the future. Denorfia and Bergolla bring speed and defense. With Guardado as well, the bullpen will be light years better. This will be a better team in the second half - and the trade will end up long term in Washington's favor because of Kearns, but probably not nearly so much as posters on here seem to think.

cincyinco
07-13-2006, 08:18 PM
I hated to see Kearns traded, but after calming down a bit, I don't think the trade is too bad. Lopez was going to walk and Wagner is AAA fodder.

I'll take a optimistic approach to this deal, although that authentic Kearns jersey in the closet isn't going to get much use anymore.

We'll see how it turns out.

Ouch, I just bought my authentic Kearns jersey on the Reds trip to CO earlier this year... I'll still pimp it strong tho ;)

The wife is glad to see Lopez and his errors gone. She immedietly grew distasteful of him after seeing make some bonehead plays on the field.

Everyone is acting like drama queens here... way too emotional.

cincyinco
07-13-2006, 08:20 PM
I think I could live with it too, but Clayton makes the whole deal smell.

LOL.. I dont see how you can think that what you posted is in any way logical. If Clayton is so inconsequential, why worry?

if you like the deal without Clayton, whast the harm if he's included? He certainly provides some defensive capability.

Raisor
07-13-2006, 08:24 PM
Since we're showing what other forums are saying about the trade:

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=ml-reds&msg=27789.1&ctx=0

Raisor
07-13-2006, 08:25 PM
if you like the deal without Clayton, whast the harm if he's included? .


The same problem with signing the Joe Mayses of the world...if he's around, he'll get used.

deltachi8
07-13-2006, 08:31 PM
One thing's for sure this will play out pretty quick, if the Reds nosedive fast this wil be the part everyone will note (not the two 1-8 runs prior to the trade)

well said.

i dont hate this trade, i don't like it either at this point. Wayne has earned my wait and see.

Puffy
07-13-2006, 08:32 PM
The same problem with signing the Joe Mayses of the world...if he's around, he'll get used.

And the Juan Castros and the Dave Williams'

WVRed
07-13-2006, 08:34 PM
It doesn't matter what happens to AK and FeLo after they leave...it matters what happens to the Reds.

And I think the Reds will be better as a result of it. Denorfia will help ease the Kearns blow, and the defense up the middle will ultimately improve, as will the bullpen.

Cyclone792
07-13-2006, 08:36 PM
The same problem with signing the Joe Mayses of the world...if he's around, he'll get used.


And the Juan Castros and the Dave Williams'

Yep, that's the problem with players on the trash heap. They cost money - sometimes more just the league minimum - they're a waste as they take up roster spots, they help you lose when they do play, and most importantly, they play much more than they actually should.

cincyinco
07-13-2006, 08:39 PM
Somebody's gotta deliver the mail and get a lead to those shiny new bullpen pitchers that we paid so dearly for.

Is a 3 run lead after the 1st in the 1st game since this trade good enough? :D

reds44
07-13-2006, 08:41 PM
Good inning Milty.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 08:43 PM
Salary freedom in 2007 and beyond is a big factor. How they spend the $10M they won't be paying Kearns/Lopez next season is key. We have to trust Krivsky with some blind faith on this one that he won't pee it away like the previous two GM regimes. There's your missing 4th rotation arm (#2 starter) and another setup man + an a 4th OF filler type for 2007.

If in contention for next season, I think we'll see Bailey up here by 2H 2007.
No guarantee that they will be spending unspent money. Maybe what FeLo and AK were making, but not $10 million. I hope this wasn't a pure salary dump.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 08:45 PM
The Jerry Rice of baseball is 0 for 2

:D

MrCinatit
07-13-2006, 08:45 PM
I think we got spoiled by rumors that we were getting Willis, Cabrera and Tejada as a return for Kearns, Lopez and Hatty - did anyone really think that would happen?
Remember, not all trades can be measured in "Good for one team, bad for the other". We have filled some holes (the bullpen). So have the Nationals.

Johnny Footstool
07-13-2006, 08:46 PM
Clayton is irrelevant here. Simply a 2006 stop gap.

Judge the trade on the other principles exchanged + Reds salary freedom going forward.

Depends on how they use that alleged "salary freedom."

Ltlabner
07-13-2006, 08:46 PM
No guarantee that they will be spending unspent money. Maybe what FeLo and AK were making, but not $10 million. I hope this wasn't a pure salary dump.

I don't think it was edabbs. Kriv said during the press conference that they were saving around $1.3 million or so. While that's a lot of money to you and me, it's not much in the grand scheme of things.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 08:46 PM
The Jerry Rice of baseball is 0 for 2

:D

I thought Jerry Rice was the Chris Denorfia of football players.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 08:47 PM
I thought Jerry Rice was the Chris Denorfia of football players.

That could be. :)

Gallen5862
07-13-2006, 08:50 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/print261918.html
Contending Reds Make Baffling Trade
By Jim Callis
July 13, 2006


The Reds are just 1½ games back in the National League wild-card chase and four behind in the NL Central, while the Nationals have the third-worst record in the league. Yet it was Cincinnati surrendering more talent than it received from Washington in a baffling trade on Thursday. The Reds gave up two productive starters, Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns, plus Triple-A righthander Ryan Wagner to acquire a less-than-inspiring package of five players: big leaguers Gary Majewski, Bill Bray and Royce Clayton and minor leaguers Brendan Harris and Daryl Thompson.

The deal will help Cincinnati's bullpen, which has compiled a 5.16 ERA—the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball. But the cost of doing so was huge. Even if the Reds replace Lopez and Kearns with some combination of Clayton, utilityman Ryan Freel and prospect Chris Denorfia, their offense will take a huge hit. Additionally, Lopez and Kearns appear to be, by far, the two best long-term players in the deal. And while those two will get raises when they're arbitration-eligible again this offseason, they won't make enough money that it makes sense for Cincinnati to jettison them while trying to reach the playoffs.

Lopez, 26, had a breakthrough season and earned all-star recognition in 2005, when he hit .291/.352/.486 with 23 homers, 85 RBIs and 15 steals. He hasn't been as productive this year, but he's still one of the game's more dangerous offensive shortstops. He has power and speed and has improved his patience at the plate. In 85 games, Lopez has hit .268/.355/.394 with nine homers, 30 RBIs and 23 steals. On defense, he shows a strong arm but his consistency and instincts are lacking. Clayton is a more reliable defender, but the Reds will miss Lopez' bat. He's making $2.7 million this season and is a career .259/.329/.416 hitter with 54 homers, 216 RBIs and 56 steals in 505 games.

Kearns, 26, was considered a prospect on par with Adam Dunn when both came up through the Reds system. Kearns hasn't achieved the same stardom, however, as he has been bothered by injuries and inconsistency. Finally on track to spend a full season in the majors, Kearns is just two homers away from his career high of 18, established last year. He's batting .274/.351/.492 with 50 RBIs in 87 games. Kearns runs well enough to steal an occasional base, and he's a good right fielder with the requisite strong arm. He currently has a salary of $1.85 million, a figure that will rise significantly in arbitration. He has batted .267/.358/.468 with 71 homers and 263 RBIs in 452 career games.

Wagner needed just nine minor league appearances to reach the majors after the Reds made him the 14th overall pick in the 2003 draft out of Houston. But the 23-year-old righthander hasn't blossomed into a closer, and he has spent this year at Triple-A Louisville after missing the second half of 2005 with shoulder inflammation. Wagner is known for having one of the game's most devastating sliders, and he has a plus fastball to go with it. But he has been far from peak form at Louisville, going 1-3, 6.34 with one save in 35 games. He has a 28-14 K-BB ratio in 38 innings, while International League hitters have torched him for a .344 average and three homers. In part of three major league seasons, he has gone 8-4, 4.69 in 105 games. The Nationals assigned him to Triple-A New Orleans.

A 26-year-old righty, Majewski finally established himself as a big leaguer in 2005, when he ranked fifth in the NL with 24 holds. He has continued to be an effective setup man this year, going 3-2, 3.58 with six holds in 46 appearances. He has a 34-25 K-BB ratio, .233 opponent average and four homers allowed in 55 innings. He's a power reliever with a fastball that can reach the mid-90s and a slider that can hit the mid-80s. Majewski, who won't be eligible for arbitration until after the 2007 season, has a big league record of 7-7, 3.27 with two saves in 141 games.

Bray, a 23-year-old lefty, was the 13th overall pick in 2004. A product of William & Mary, he rebounded from back problems a year ago to reach the majors for the first time this season. In 19 games, he has gone 1-1, 3.91. He has a 16-9 K-BB ratio in 23 innings, and opponents have hit .273 with two homers against him. Bray has the stuff to be a top southpaw setup man, starting with a low-90s fastball and a low-80s slider.

After the Cristian Guzman debacle of 2005, the Nationals signed Royce Clayton to a one-year, $1 million free-agent contract to take over at shortstop. He remains a quality defender at shortstop, but he contributes next to nothing offensively. He doesn't hit for much of an average and doesn't provide much in the way of power or on-base skills. He has the speed to steal a few bases, but that doesn't make up for his shortcomings at the plate. He's hitting .269/.315/.348 with no homers, 27 RBIs and eight steals in 87 games. A free agent again after this season, Clayton is a lifetime .259/.313/.369 hitter with 107 homers, 698 RBIs and 223 games in 1,981 big league games.

Brendan Harris once ranked as one of the top prospects in the Cubs system, but his stock has dropped since he joined the Nationals in the four-team Nomar Garciaparra trade in July 2004. A fifth-round pick out of William & Mary in 2001, he hasn't been able to claim a regular job in the majors and now projects as a utilityman at best. He's a line-drive hitter who doesn't have a true plus tool. He has fringy power and speed, and his best defensive trait is his versatility. He can handle second and third base and fill in at shortstop. Harris has spent most of this year at New Orleans, where he hit .283/.379/.416 with five homers and 32 RBIs in 59 games. He also appeared in 17 games for Washington this year and has career big league totals of .210/.275/.330 with two homers and eight RBIs in 27 career big league contests. The Reds assigned him to Louisville.

A 20-year-old righty, Thompson quickly emerged as one of the Nationals' best prospects after they took him in the eighth round out of a Maryland high school in 2003. But he was sidetracked by shoulder surgery in mid-2005, and only recently returned to the mound at short-season Vermont. Working under tight pitch counts, he has gone 0-1, 6.64 in four starts covering seven innings. Before he got hurt, Thompson showed a 91-94 mph fastball, an average curveball and an improving changuep. If he can regain that stuff, he'll be a nice pickup for the Reds, who have few pitching prospects of note beyond Homer Bailey. Cincinnati sent Thompson to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League.

<< Trade Central 2006

corkedbat
07-13-2006, 08:51 PM
Buster Olney said Griffey or Dunn could be traded to the Yanks for Phillip Hughes.

I would deal Griff for Hughes. Dunn? Hell no.

Gimme Cano and Hughes for Junior and omeone (Clayton maybe? :D ). I'll take it.

GAC
07-13-2006, 08:51 PM
Most likely a last minute dangle to be the SS the rest of the year, then Phillips goes to SS and Harris 2nd.

Exactly what I'm thinking. He was fodder thrown in.


In two years Lopez will be expensive and not playing SS. Maybe one year too soon... but better than a year too late (Like with Kearns eh?)

Yep. Personally, I'm OK with the trade.

Deno gets to show his stuff, now that Ears is gone. As much as Denorfria has been built up on this forum, did we lose much there? ;)

Lopez leaving simply opens up SS for Phillips next year.

And reports have been down on the farm that Wagner was not developing the pitches he needed to really succeed in the Bigs. He was struggling.

I continue to laugh at some who talk about how disappointed and expendable players like Ears and Lopez have been, because their performance was so erratic.... and yet when it comes to trade value, they ALWAYS over value them and expect the star and moon. :lol:

And I don't think the Reds are done.

cincyinco
07-13-2006, 08:54 PM
The same problem with signing the Joe Mayses of the world...if he's around, he'll get used.

Is he being used tonight? I was under the impression that Clayton, Majewski, and Bray were all going to be at the ballpark before tonights game.

Clayton is a spare part.. big deal.. even if he gets used a little bit.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 08:54 PM
This trade would have been a clear winner had it been Kearns/Dumatrait/Pelland for what they got, but giving up two big MLB chips is just too much.

RFS62
07-13-2006, 08:56 PM
For all the good that fantasy baseball has done, I think it's done some harm too.

People think you have to win a trade on paper without thinking of the relative value of the players being exchanged to their teams.

Our defense and bullpen are killing us.

The long term finances make Lopez unlikely to be the shortstop of the future for the Reds.

We're strong on offense.

This trade doesn't make me want to jump ship. I don't know enough about the guys we're getting yet, but I'm not ready to declare that the sky is falling.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 08:59 PM
I think we got spoiled by rumors that we were getting Willis, Cabrera and Tejada as a return for Kearns, Lopez and Hatty - did anyone really think that would happen?
Remember, not all trades can be measured in "Good for one team, bad for the other". We have filled some holes (the bullpen). So have the Nationals.

I don't know if I can speak for everyone, but I have been here long enough to know that very few people that are part of the ORG thought anything of such rumors except they were crazy. at least, that is my perception.

SteelSD
07-13-2006, 08:59 PM
Well, I hope no one says I didn't warn them.

I have few words that can be relayed on a family-oriented public message board for how awful a job Wayne Krivsky just did of maximizing the value of two of his biggest trading chips. Putrid comes to mind, but that's not quite strong enough.

westofyou
07-13-2006, 09:00 PM
Our defense and bullpen are killing us.

Like a pack of monkeys with socks full of bb's.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 09:00 PM
This trade would have been a clear winner had it been Kearns/Dumatrait/Pelland for what they got, but giving up two big MLB chips is just too much.

Yup -- that's my big problems with the deal, when it all boils down.

The Reds are out trading chips now, since every remaining player will be needed to keep producing runs.

And, after it's all said and done, are they in THAT much better of shape than they were 24 hours ago?

Eric Milton is still pitching tonight.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 09:01 PM
Is he being used tonight? I was under the impression that Clayton, Majewski, and Bray were all going to be at the ballpark before tonights game.



They report tomorrow.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:04 PM
I don't think it was edabbs. Kriv said during the press conference that they were saving around $1.3 million or so. While that's a lot of money to you and me, it's not much in the grand scheme of things.
I don't think I was clear in getting my point across. One of the earlier posts said that hopefully they will spend roughly $10 million next year that they were saving, taking into account future contracts of AK and FeLo. My response was that there is no guarantee that they will spend that money, and that this was potentially a dump of next year's contracts.

Any better?

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:06 PM
For all the good that fantasy baseball has done, I think it's done some harm too.

People think you have to win a trade on paper without thinking of the relative value of the players being exchanged to their teams.

Our defense and bullpen are killing us.

The long term finances make Lopez unlikely to be the shortstop of the future for the Reds.

We're strong on offense.

This trade doesn't make me want to jump ship. I don't know enough about the guys we're getting yet, but I'm not ready to declare that the sky is falling.
If defense was a big part of this deal, then Kriv failed since AK is easily the best defender in the OF.

I think the BP is definitely much better, but I think WK could have gotten much more for these guys.

GAC
07-13-2006, 09:06 PM
Well, I hope no one says I didn't warn them.

I have few words that can be relayed on a family-oriented public message board for how awful a job Wayne Krivsky just did of maximizing the value of two of his biggest trading chips.

I don't think their value was as great as many Red fans think they were. Especially Kearns.

dsmith421
07-13-2006, 09:06 PM
This reminds me of the Casey trade, only worse.

In both situations, we traded a useful, albeit flawed, commodity and got the functional equivalent of garbage back. The problem is not making the bad trade--it's that now we have no more trading chips to play with to get the kind of young starting pitching that is essential to building a contending team.

Krivsky gets an F on this deal. And it's a big percentage of his grade so far.

Ltlabner
07-13-2006, 09:06 PM
I don't think I was clear in getting my point across. One of the earlier posts said that hopefully they will spend roughly $10 million next year that they were saving, taking into account future contracts of AK and FeLo. My response was that there is no guarantee that they will spend that money, and that this was potentially a dump of next year's contracts.


Oh yes, gotcha. I think it does give them more flexibility in the next year or so. And when they can get rid of the horrible contracts (Again, thanks DanO) of Milton, LaRue and Jr we can really do something.

RFS62
07-13-2006, 09:11 PM
Oh yes, gotcha. I think it does give them more flexibility in the next year or so. And when they can get rid of the horrible contracts (Again, thanks DanO) of Milton, LaRue and Jr we can really do something.


Yeah, we look at every move as if it was the only move to be made.

Krivsky is systematically remaking the team. After the last five years, I'm happy that it's happening.

I know a lot of us here hate the way he's doing it. Only time will tell.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:13 PM
In any trade, nine times out of ten, you want to get the best player in the deal, and in Bray, we did that.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:14 PM
This reminds me of the Casey trade, only worse.

In both situations, we traded a useful, albeit flawed, commodity and got the functional equivalent of garbage back. The problem is not making the bad trade--it's that now we have no more trading chips to play with to get the kind of young starting pitching that is essential to building a contending team.

Krivsky gets an F on this deal. And it's a big percentage of his grade so far.

So you think the Majewski is garbage?

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:14 PM
In any trade, nine times out of ten, you want to get the best player in the deal, and in Bray, we did that.
He was rated their 8th best prospect. I think, if AK and FeLo were in AAA, they would be raed higher than 8th.

NC Reds
07-13-2006, 09:15 PM
I think Krivsky pooped his pants with this trade. Horrible.

According to Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings, Kearns is #96 and Lopez is #103, placing them in the upper quarter of all of baseball. By comparison, Carlos Delgado is #101. In exchange we got Royce Clayton and some middle relief help.

Kearns and Lopez are both just 26 yrs old. Small market teams improve by developing and keeping their good young players. Small market teams fail when they sign a bunch of veteran fodder (see KC Royals) and trade good young talent and get little back.

Realistically, this team was not going to win a World Series before the trade. It sure isn't going to win one now. We should be trading the old guys, not the ones who are entering the primes of their careers. This trade is absolutely putrid. Krivsky's reputation just took a huge hit. Not even DanO accepts this low of a return. :thumbdown

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:16 PM
I have a hard time believing Lopez was nearly as valuable as people think. Bowden may be the only GM dumb enough to trade for him with the idea of him playing SS.

BTW- Lopez OPS for the last month was .670. Hardly awe inspiring considering his defensive inadequacies.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:16 PM
I think Krivsky pooped his pants with this trade. Horrible.

According to Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings, Kearns is #96 and Lopez is #103, placing them in the upper quarter of all of baseball. By comparison, Carlos Delgado is #101. In exchange we got Royce Clayton and some middle relief help.

Kearns and Lopez are both just 26 yrs old. Small market teams improve by developing and keeping their good young players. Small market teams fail when they sign a bunch of veteran fodder (see KC Royals) and trade good young talent and get little back.

Realistically, this team was not going to win a World Series before the trade. It sure isn't going to win one now. We should be trading the old guys, not the ones who are entering the primes of their careers. This trade is absolutely putrid. Krivsky's reputation just took a huge hit. Not even DanO accepts this low of a return. :thumbdown


This isn't fantasy baseball.:help:

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:17 PM
Yeah, we look at every move as if it was the only move to be made.

Krivsky is systematically remaking the team. After the last five years, I'm happy that it's happening.

I know a lot of us here hate the way he's doing it. Only time will tell.
It's kind of rough to be in the playoff hunt and watch a trade go down like this. Bullpen help should not be that expensive and, if it currently is, they should have stood pat for the time being.

I think their BP needed help in the worst way but AK and Lopez didn;t have to go. One of them, OK. But not both.

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:17 PM
I think Krivsky pooped his pants with this trade. Horrible.

According to Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings, Kearns is #96 and Lopez is #103, placing them in the upper quarter of all of baseball. By comparison, Carlos Delgado is #101. In exchange we got Royce Clayton and some middle relief help.

Kearns and Lopez are both just 26 yrs old. Small market teams improve by developing and keeping their good young players. Small market teams fail when they sign a bunch of veteran fodder (see KC Royals) and trade good young talent and get little back.

Realistically, this team was not going to win a World Series before the trade. It sure isn't going to win one now. We should be trading the old guys, not the ones who are entering the primes of their careers. This trade is absolutely putrid. Krivsky's reputation just took a huge hit. Not even DanO accepts this low of a return. :thumbdown

Lopez was due a big payday. he hardly qualifies as the type of "good young player" small market teams shoudl covet IMO.

GAC
07-13-2006, 09:18 PM
I have a hard time believing Lopez was nearly as valuable as people think. Bowden may be the only GM dumb enough to trade for him with the idea of him playing SS.

BTW- Lopez OPS for the last month was .670. Hardly awe inspiring considering his defensive inadequacies.

Shhhhhh! You're killing his trade value. ;)

CrackerJack
07-13-2006, 09:19 PM
This deal doesn't really bother me - 2 good, ready ML pitchers under the age of 27 for the BP and a young guy (could care less about Clayton).

Just what the Reds needed - but I am sorry to see Lopez go.

but the arms are a welcome sight for sore eyes.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:19 PM
It's kind of rough to be in the playoff hunt and watch a trade go down like this. Bullpen help should not be that expensive and, if it currently is, they should have stood pat for the time being.

I think their BP needed help in the worst way but AK and Lopez didn;t have to go. One of them, OK. But not both.

and sit around on their hands and listen to 9 out of 10 people complain how bad their bullpen is? they still have to sell tickets.

the bullpen has made me lose a lot of hair this season. I think I'll just shave it completely if these guys don't help. I think a lot of people are going to be suprised at how good of a pitcher Gary Majewski is.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:19 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/print261918.html
Contending Reds Make Baffling Trade
By Jim Callis
July 13, 2006

"Additionally, Lopez and Kearns appear to be, by far, the two best long-term players in the deal."



Wrong, banana-breath! (to Jim Callis, the baseball america cut-and-paste copy clerk) Bray is the best player in this deal.

Great move by the REDS's G.M.!

It's fun to be a REDS fan again. This year has been great since new ownershipe took over. (Actually as soon it was announced that there would be new ownership.)

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 09:20 PM
We wanted Denorfia up here. Done.

We wanted bullpen help. Done

We want better defense. Done.


It's steps in the right direction. You have to give something to get something.

It wouldn't shock me if there's more to come.

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:20 PM
I think people greatly underestimate the cumulative effect of adding much needed BP depth to this pitching staff.

OnBaseMachine
07-13-2006, 09:21 PM
Should the Reds move Bray into the rotation next year? Have Soto work with him on that changeup and then stretch him out during the Spring.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 09:21 PM
We wanted Denorfia up here. Done.

We wanted bullpen help. Done

We want better defense. Done.


It's steps in the right direction. You have to give something to get something.

As has been said before -- it shouldn't have cost two STARTING major league players.

If it costs that much, you put the phone down and wait for better calls to come. Sometimes it's the deals you DON'T make that are the most important things you do as the man in charge. It's not like these two relievers are going to be the difference between winning and losing. The back of the rotation is still a killer.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:21 PM
He was rated their 8th best prospect. I think, if AK and FeLo were in AAA, they would be raed higher than 8th.

AK and Felo aren't one year removed from College!!!!!

cincinnati chili
07-13-2006, 09:22 PM
John Sickels ratings for these guys going into 2006:

Bray: B-
Thompson: C+
Harris: C+

Majewski's ceiling is decent middle reliever. Clayton is a non-factor in this deal (or a negative factor if we actually play him).

IMO, too many of the posters I respect are being way too consiliatory about this.

I want to go on record to say this borders on malpractice by Krivsky.

I wasn't sure if he was really good or really lucky with the Arroyo and Phillips moves. This suggests he was really lucky.

While I agree that Kearns and Lopez are overrated on this board, and I agree we need to improve the bullpen/defense, this is not the way to do it. We've traded roughly 2 runs of offense for every additional run we'll prevent; we've gutted our offensive depth (if/when Griffey gets hurt); we've given up our better trading chips.

I'm off the bandwagon.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:22 PM
We wanted Denorfia up here. Done.

We wanted bullpen help. Done

We want better defense. Done.


It's steps in the right direction. You have to give something to get something.

good post Matt. It's more fun to complain about getting what you asked for. Do I absolutely love the deal? no, but it's not horrible and I almost think Krisky made a good move.:pray:

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 09:22 PM
I think people greatly underestimate the cumulative effect of adding much needed BP depth to this pitching staff.

I think people underestimate more the cumulative effect of adding starters.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:23 PM
We wanted Denorfia up here. Done.

We wanted bullpen help. Done

We want better defense. Done.


It's steps in the right direction. You have to give something to get something.
Deno...check.
BP help...check.
Better defense? AK was arguable the best defensive player on the team.

We also could have dealt Dunn, Griffey and Homer for Torii Hunter, Crain and Rincon. That would have solved the BP and defense problem as well.

OK, I'm over-exaggerating a little. But I think that sums it up.

cincinnati chili
07-13-2006, 09:23 PM
can anyone summarize Keith Law's thought's on Espn insider. My understanding is he thinks we got fleeced.

NC Reds
07-13-2006, 09:23 PM
This isn't fantasy baseball.:help:


I never said it was. The point is that MLB All-Stars routinely occupy the top 100 of such rankings. When you give up quality performers, you should expect to get back quality. Without Kearns and Lopez, we should have fewer late inning leads to protect.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:23 PM
I would have expected Livan Hernandez to be involved in any deal with the Nats. I kind of wish he was.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 09:24 PM
I have a hard time believing Lopez was nearly as valuable as people think. Bowden may be the only GM dumb enough to trade for him with the idea of him playing SS.

BTW- Lopez OPS for the last month was .670. Hardly awe inspiring considering his defensive inadequacies.

I was thinking the same thing about Jimbo. If any GM was emotionally as attached to Kearns/Lopez/Wagner as many of us here on Redszone it would be Jim Bowden. Maybe he would pay more than anyone else?? I still can't figure out putting Lopez/Kearns in the same package though.

Intersting Article on Bray

Bray Delviers in Pressure Situations

http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20060611-125732-2614r.htm

Washington Nationals manager Frank Robinson wanted to see rookie reliever Bill Bray in a pressure situation.
Robinson liked what he saw in Friday night's 12-inning win over the Philadelphia Phillies: three perfect innings -- the eighth, ninth and 10th -- in a tie game from the 23-year-old left-hander.
"He couldn't do any more, let me put it that way," Robinson said. "I just wanted to see what he's capable of doing and have an idea. He answered a lot of questions last night. He also answered that he can go three effective innings. Now, am I at ease with him to put him in any type of situation? Just about, yes."
Bray, who was selected in the first round (13th overall) of the 2004 draft out of William & Mary, had not pitched more than one inning in his three previous appearances since he was called up from Class AAA New Orleans on June 2.
In the ninth, Bray retired the heart of the Phillies order -- Chase Utley, Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. He struck out Abreu and Burrell, who were both in the top 10 in the National League in RBI. Abreu was first in on-base percentage.
"It definitely helped prove to myself that I can go into a situation and get the job done," said Bray, who has allowed just one hit in 51/3 innings. "It's definitely a confidence booster."
Bray had a shot to win the game in the 10th, when the Nationals loaded the bases with one out. But Jose Vidro grounded into a fielder's choice and Nick Johnson grounded out to second to end the inning.
Closer Chad Cordero (2-1), who pitched scoreless innings in the 11th and 12th, picked up the win when Robert Fick singled home Marlon Byrd in the 12th for the Nationals' eighth win in nine games.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:25 PM
AK and Felo aren't one year removed from College!!!!!
Then say highest ceiling or most potential. But don;t say best player.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 09:25 PM
I would have expected Livan Hernandez to be involved in any deal with the Nats. I kind of wish he was.

I was hoping his name would pop up when this thing went down.

I would be surprised if his name didn't come up during the talks, however.

Wayne: "Livan Hernandez"

Jim: "Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Felipe..."

Wayne: "scratch that..."

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:25 PM
I think Krivsky pooped his pants with this trade. Horrible.

According to Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings, Kearns is #96 and Lopez is #103, placing them in the upper quarter of all of baseball. By comparison, Carlos Delgado is #101. In exchange we got Royce Clayton and some middle relief help.

Kearns and Lopez are both just 26 yrs old. Small market teams improve by developing and keeping their good young players. Small market teams fail when they sign a bunch of veteran fodder (see KC Royals) and trade good young talent and get little back.

Realistically, this team was not going to win a World Series before the trade. It sure isn't going to win one now. We should be trading the old guys, not the ones who are entering the primes of their careers. This trade is absolutely putrid. Krivsky's reputation just took a huge hit. Not even DanO accepts this low of a return. :thumbdown

NC, what players could you possibly be talking about? Kearns and Felo are both three years older than the best player we got in this trade, Bray.

Krivsky traded older players for a younger player who has more upside and more talent...When Bray is 26 years old, he will have become a rock in this bullpen that will help this team win games of 4-3 and 5-4.

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:25 PM
I think people underestimate more the cumulative effect of adding starters.


that too. we need some of those.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 09:25 PM
I think people greatly underestimate the cumulative effect of adding much needed BP depth to this pitching staff.

Unless one of them has an extra meniscus growing somewhere on his body, neither of them is going to make Eric Milton a good pitcher.

Unless one of them has an extra elbow ligament, neither of them is going to give Brandon Claussen back the 3-4 MPH of velocity he needs to be successful.

Unless one of them has some duct tape, a gun and a shovel, we're still going to be stuck with Joe Mays on the big league roster.

All this does is make the 7th and 8th less frutrating. With Milton, Mays and Claussen on this club and Arroyo coming back to earth, the 7th and 8th is not the only priority on the Reds plate right now. And now they're fresh out of talent to trade to help.

MrCinatit
07-13-2006, 09:26 PM
I do have one question - Lopez was replaced by Bergollia. Kearns by DenO.
This means three roster spots will have to be open tomorrow for three newcomers (2 relievers, and Clayton) - am I correct here, or am I missing something.

RFS62
07-13-2006, 09:26 PM
We always overvalue our own guys.

The cost of pitching is off the charts. It's like oil, it's supply and demand, not what it's really worth in a rational world.

Narron and Krivsky see Clayton and Castro as stability, not volatility. Streaky volatility is what we've had from Lopez. I love his athleticism, but he's not stable on a defense that sucks hard.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 09:27 PM
I do have one question - Lopez was replaced by Bergollia. Kearns by DenO.
This means three roster spots will have to be open tomorrow for three newcomers (2 relievers, and Clayton) - am I correct here, or am I missing something.

Maybe Bergolla goes down to make room for Clayton....

...then 2 pitchers have to go.

Cyclone792
07-13-2006, 09:27 PM
John Sickels ratings for these guys going into 2006:

Bray: B-
Thompson: C+
Harris: C+

Majewski's ceiling is decent middle reliever. Clayton is a non-factor in this deal (or a negative factor if we actually play him).

IMO, too many of the posters I respect are being way too consiliatory about this.

I want to go on record to say this borders on malpractice by Krivsky.

I wasn't sure if he was really good or really lucky with the Arroyo and Phillips moves. This suggests he was really lucky.

While I agree that Kearns and Lopez are overrated on this board, and I agree we need to improve the bullpen/defense, this is not the way to do it. We've traded roughly 2 runs of offense for every additional run we'll prevent; we've gutted our offensive depth (if/when Griffey gets hurt); we've given up our better trading chips.

I'm off the bandwagon.

On the actual trade itself, that's a pretty darn good summary there, chili.

BTW, I'm also very interested in the Law article if anybody has access to it.

Matt700wlw
07-13-2006, 09:29 PM
On the actual trade itself, that's a pretty darn good summary there, chili.

BTW, I'm also very interested in the Law article if anybody has access to it.


Here's part of it...

Do you think Jim Bowden took a little pleasure in thoroughly robbing the organization that fired him in 2003? If not, perhaps he should, because he just pushed the Reds to the back of the NL playoff queue, and in the process picked up three players who entered the Reds' organization while he was their GM.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:30 PM
On the actual trade itself, that's a pretty darn good summary there, chili.

BTW, I'm also very interested in the Law article if anybody has access to it.
I posted it on the Farm page.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:32 PM
Then say highest ceiling or most potential. But don;t say best player. You're right...and I should have said that he's in his second year of pro baseball, not one year removed from college. He's got a dynamite slider from all the different posts I'm reading....looking forward to this bullpen's second half ERA being under 4.4 with the additions of Bray, Mac, and Guardado, and next year's bullpen to stay the whole year under 4.4.

oregonred
07-13-2006, 09:33 PM
Sickles Offseason Ratings on Top Reds Prospects. Interesting to see Votto at C+ and Lizard at a C

Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+

Travis Wood, LHP, Grade B

Jay Bruce, OF, Grade B

B.J. Szymanski, OF, B-

Phil Dumatrait, LHP, B-

Chris Denorfia, OF, C+

Tyler Pelland, LHP, C+

Joey Votto, 1B, C+

Justin Germano, RHP, C+

Zach Ward, RHP, C+

Sam Lecure, RHP, C+

Bobby Basham, RHP, C+

Adam Rosales, SS, C+

Jeff Stevens, RHP, C+

William Bergolla, 2B, C

Travis Chick, RHP, C

Elizardo Ramirez, RHP, C

Rafael Gonzalez, RHP, C

James Avery, RHP, C

Miguel Perez, C, C

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:33 PM
Unless one of them has an extra meniscus growing somewhere on his body, neither of them is going to make Eric Milton a good pitcher.

Unless one of them has an extra elbow ligament, neither of them is going to give Brandon Claussen back the 3-4 MPH of velocity he needs to be successful.

Unless one of them has some duct tape, a gun and a shovel, we're still going to be stuck with Joe Mays on the big league roster.

All this does is make the 7th and 8th less frutrating. With Milton, Mays and Claussen on this club and Arroyo coming back to earth, the 7th and 8th is not the only priority on the Reds plate right now. And now they're fresh out of talent to trade to help.

They can still trade Larue, Freel, Griffey or prospects, but I agree that they need some starting pitching as well.

Puffy
07-13-2006, 09:34 PM
Here ya go:


Nationals win deal with Redsposted: Thursday, July 13, 2006 | Print Entry

Do you think Jim Bowden took a little pleasure in thoroughly robbing the organization that fired him in 2003? If not, perhaps he should, because he just pushed the Reds to the back of the NL playoff queue, and in the process picked up three players who entered the Reds' organization while he was their GM.
The Nationals were widely expected to be sellers in the July trade market, and that may still come to pass, but in this deal, they took on more salary than they gave up. In exchange for a talented left-handed relief prospect and three spare parts, the Nationals just added an above-average corner outfielder, an above-average shortstop, and a talented right-handed relief prospect. Whether they choose to keep Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez or move them for younger talent, the Nationals won this deal in a rout.

Kearns frustrates a lot of people inside the game because of the frequency he racks up strikeouts. Look instead at what Kearns does well: plus power, plus patience, and plus defense in right with a good arm. He'll strike out a lot and may not always hit for average, but he's an above-average player in an outfield corner, and the Nationals have him under control through the end of 2008. He's very similar to Brad Wilkerson, but with the added sheen of having served as a Red while Bowden ran that club.

Lopez is in the same service-time class as Kearns, meaning that he too is eligible for free agency after 2008. Lopez is having a down year after his breakthrough in 2005, an All-Star caliber season during which he poked 23 homers and hit for average with a few walks, a few steals and erratic defense at short. Lopez is an athletic player who has above-average raw power and a good arm, but his makeup has always been an open question. Given the complete lack of anything resembling a big-league shortstop in the Washington system, however, Lopez is an immediate and substantial upgrade, and it's a good gamble that he'll return at least most of the way to his 2005 performance.

Ryan Wagner is a throw-in, which is a major fall from grace for a guy selected in the first round in 2003 and rushed right to the majors. Wagner had the best strikeout rate in Division I in his junior year at the University of Houston, but his command has been awful in the pros, partly the result of a slinging delivery that puts a lot of strain on his shoulder. Still, he has a plus fastball and a plus slider that can get a little sweepy when he gets around it; it's worth a shot to see if a change of scenery will help.

The jewel in the deal for the Reds is Bill Bray, who was highly touted as a first-round pick in 2004. Bray has an out-pitch slider with a hard, late break to go with an average fastball and good control. He closed in college and should develop into a setup man in the majors, but the odds of his doing so this year (his debut season in the majors) aren't great. He also has a history of back trouble, which limited him to just 40 innings in 2005.

The real problem here for Cincinnati is that the other players they acquired just aren't any good. Royce Clayton was once a defensive whiz who would hit just enough to be a contributor, but his offense is so bad today that he makes Rafael Belliard look like Cal Ripken at the plate. Since the start of the 2000 season, Clayton has hit .258/.313/.369. And his defensive abilities have declined, much as you would expect they would for a player moving through his late 30s. As a glove off the bench acquired at no cost, Clayton is still a questionable use of a spot on the 25-man roster, but if the Reds intend to give him any of the playing time freed up by the trade of Lopez, they're shooting themselves in the foot.

Gary Majewski has two average pitches in his fastball and slider, but no real out pitch, no weapon to use against left-handed batters, and below-average control. He has moderate sink on his fastball, which is important in Cincinnati's home park, but isn't enough to make him more than an 11th or 12th man on their staff. Brendan Harris is a utility player who isn't good defensively and who has never had much patience at the plate; he's a 4-A guy who won't find playing time in Cincinnati with Ryan Freel, Rich Aurilia, Brandon Phillips, Juan Castro, and now Clayton all on the roster.

The Reds' apparent strategy here -- trading some of their offensive depth for pitching help -- is sensible, but their specific choices here make no sense. I don't see any way in which trading two of the top 50 hitters in the league for questionable relievers helps the Reds. The most charitable analysis would say that they've acquired 50-60 better bullpen innings at the cost of 400-450 good plate appearances, but given the volatility of reliever performance and Majewski's wildness, there's a good chance that the Reds won't see any benefit in their pen as a result of this deal. Had the Reds traded some spare parts or even good prospects for Majewski and Bray, I could understand it, but they have probably now taken the league's second- or third-best offense and made it merely average.

The Nationals, on the other hand, acquired a lot more talent than they gave up, and in doing so acquired the trade's top two players, both of whom are under control through the end of 2008. Washington can go in two directions. The Nats can keep Kearns and Lopez with an eye toward contending in the next two years, which would require a lot more work. The alternative is to deal one or both of the players to try to acquire younger players whom they'd control beyond 2008; given their paltry farm system and the fact that the Mets look like they'll be a powerhouse over the next few seasons, dealing Kearns and Lopez -- both of whom would be among the most coveted players in the July trade market if they're made available again -- would be a sensible course of action.

GAC
07-13-2006, 09:34 PM
This reminds me of the Casey trade, only worse.

I was a Casey "defender", but that trade was nothing more then a salary dump, and I agreed with it (not the Williams acquisition so much).

And Hat/RA have put up casey numbers at 1B for alot less mullah.

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:35 PM
I do have one question - Lopez was replaced by Bergollia. Kearns by DenO.
This means three roster spots will have to be open tomorrow for three newcomers (2 relievers, and Clayton) - am I correct here, or am I missing something.


bergolla will go back down and soem pitchers will be DFA'd

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:35 PM
Remember, this is the Expos, though they call themselves the Nationals now, and who better knows how to scout players than the Expos?

A fastball that goes 95, and a nearly unhittable slider in the mid to upper 80's. These pitches will develop even more as he learns at the Major League level. His change-up is still a work in progress. His fastball, though it touches 95...usually sits in the 91-94 range, and he has both a two-seam and four-seam fastball.

I think we've made the moves that can get us a World Series ring this year.

I'm looking forward to the August 16-18 games I'll be attending in St. Louis next month.

GAC
07-13-2006, 09:37 PM
Remember, this is the Expos, though they call themselves the Nationals now, and who better knows how to scout players than the Expos?

But we are also talking Jim Bowden too. Remember him? ;)

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:37 PM
Remember, this is the Expos, though they call themselves the Nationals now, and who better knows how to scout players than the Expos?

A fastball that goes 95, and a nearly unhittable slider in the mid to upper 80's. These pitches will develop even more as he learns at the Major League level.
Wayne, I think you should be watching the game...:D

vaticanplum
07-13-2006, 09:39 PM
Unless one of them has an extra meniscus growing somewhere on his body, neither of them is going to make Eric Milton a good pitcher.

Unless one of them has an extra elbow ligament, neither of them is going to give Brandon Claussen back the 3-4 MPH of velocity he needs to be successful.

Unless one of them has some duct tape, a gun and a shovel, we're still going to be stuck with Joe Mays on the big league roster.

All this does is make the 7th and 8th less frutrating. With Milton, Mays and Claussen on this club and Arroyo coming back to earth, the 7th and 8th is not the only priority on the Reds plate right now. And now they're fresh out of talent to trade to help.

You two both make points I can see here. I can't tell you how many games this year I've watched and things are going along swimmingly until the bullpen comes in. How many saves have we actually blown? Take Kearns and FeLo out of a lot of these games, and although suddenly there's less offensive breathing room, I feel that it's less of a difference than the disasters the bullpen has caused. Defensively it's kind of a wash, FeLo not great at all and Kearns hopefully replaced by Denorfia. When I think about all those games, i feel better. Win games one at a time with an eye towards your team long-term -- I guess that's a good basic philosophy, and this move fits that.

But the starting pitching is still lacking, it's true...I wonder if it's just impossible to get for what we're willing to give up at this point? it seems like every time the Reds make a trade they get less in return than I would have expected, so maybe my own vision is skewed...we know what good starting pitching costs these days. Perhaps Dunn is the only thing that can bring starting pitching at this point, and Krivsky simply wasn't willing to give him up. If that's the case, kudos.

the two sides of my brain then...

"It's a bad trade" We should have gotten more. We gave up two major-league starters. It's bad timing for the deal. I liked them both.

"It's a good trade." If I'm quite honest with myself, I think there's a very good chance this trade will actually help our team win more games this year. If we get into the playoffs, it will still be by the skin of our teeth, but our chances are the same I think and maybe even slightly improved. (note: I do not TRULY think this team is going to the playoffs, but I didn't before either). And we've done all this for mostly a bunch of cheap kids, which I always enjoy.

Krivsky is a good talent guy. I agree with most of the decisions he's made so far, he's made my team better than I thought it could be, so I trust him to a degree. Then again, my fears of Dunn being traded are going to flare up again and keep me up nights. I hadn't realized how different my world had been the last six months without them until they came back today. Oy.

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:41 PM
Here ya go:


Nationals win deal with Redsposted: Thursday, July 13, 2006 | Print Entry

Do you think Jim Bowden took a little pleasure in thoroughly robbing the organization that fired him in 2003? If not, perhaps he should, because he just pushed the Reds to the back of the NL playoff queue, and in the process picked up three players who entered the Reds' organization while he was their GM.
The Nationals were widely expected to be sellers in the July trade market, and that may still come to pass, but in this deal, they took on more salary than they gave up. In exchange for a talented left-handed relief prospect and three spare parts, the Nationals just added an above-average corner outfielder, an above-average shortstop, and a talented right-handed relief prospect. Whether they choose to keep Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez or move them for younger talent, the Nationals won this deal in a rout.

Kearns frustrates a lot of people inside the game because of the frequency he racks up strikeouts. Look instead at what Kearns does well: plus power, plus patience, and plus defense in right with a good arm. He'll strike out a lot and may not always hit for average, but he's an above-average player in an outfield corner, and the Nationals have him under control through the end of 2008. He's very similar to Brad Wilkerson, but with the added sheen of having served as a Red while Bowden ran that club.

Lopez is in the same service-time class as Kearns, meaning that he too is eligible for free agency after 2008. Lopez is having a down year after his breakthrough in 2005, an All-Star caliber season during which he poked 23 homers and hit for average with a few walks, a few steals and erratic defense at short. Lopez is an athletic player who has above-average raw power and a good arm, but his makeup has always been an open question. Given the complete lack of anything resembling a big-league shortstop in the Washington system, however, Lopez is an immediate and substantial upgrade, and it's a good gamble that he'll return at least most of the way to his 2005 performance.

Ryan Wagner is a throw-in, which is a major fall from grace for a guy selected in the first round in 2003 and rushed right to the majors. Wagner had the best strikeout rate in Division I in his junior year at the University of Houston, but his command has been awful in the pros, partly the result of a slinging delivery that puts a lot of strain on his shoulder. Still, he has a plus fastball and a plus slider that can get a little sweepy when he gets around it; it's worth a shot to see if a change of scenery will help.

The jewel in the deal for the Reds is Bill Bray, who was highly touted as a first-round pick in 2004. Bray has an out-pitch slider with a hard, late break to go with an average fastball and good control. He closed in college and should develop into a setup man in the majors, but the odds of his doing so this year (his debut season in the majors) aren't great. He also has a history of back trouble, which limited him to just 40 innings in 2005.

The real problem here for Cincinnati is that the other players they acquired just aren't any good. Royce Clayton was once a defensive whiz who would hit just enough to be a contributor, but his offense is so bad today that he makes Rafael Belliard look like Cal Ripken at the plate. Since the start of the 2000 season, Clayton has hit .258/.313/.369. And his defensive abilities have declined, much as you would expect they would for a player moving through his late 30s. As a glove off the bench acquired at no cost, Clayton is still a questionable use of a spot on the 25-man roster, but if the Reds intend to give him any of the playing time freed up by the trade of Lopez, they're shooting themselves in the foot.

Gary Majewski has two average pitches in his fastball and slider, but no real out pitch, no weapon to use against left-handed batters, and below-average control. He has moderate sink on his fastball, which is important in Cincinnati's home park, but isn't enough to make him more than an 11th or 12th man on their staff. Brendan Harris is a utility player who isn't good defensively and who has never had much patience at the plate; he's a 4-A guy who won't find playing time in Cincinnati with Ryan Freel, Rich Aurilia, Brandon Phillips, Juan Castro, and now Clayton all on the roster.

The Reds' apparent strategy here -- trading some of their offensive depth for pitching help -- is sensible, but their specific choices here make no sense. I don't see any way in which trading two of the top 50 hitters in the league for questionable relievers helps the Reds. The most charitable analysis would say that they've acquired 50-60 better bullpen innings at the cost of 400-450 good plate appearances, but given the volatility of reliever performance and Majewski's wildness, there's a good chance that the Reds won't see any benefit in their pen as a result of this deal. Had the Reds traded some spare parts or even good prospects for Majewski and Bray, I could understand it, but they have probably now taken the league's second- or third-best offense and made it merely average.

The Nationals, on the other hand, acquired a lot more talent than they gave up, and in doing so acquired the trade's top two players, both of whom are under control through the end of 2008. Washington can go in two directions. The Nats can keep Kearns and Lopez with an eye toward contending in the next two years, which would require a lot more work. The alternative is to deal one or both of the players to try to acquire younger players whom they'd control beyond 2008; given their paltry farm system and the fact that the Mets look like they'll be a powerhouse over the next few seasons, dealing Kearns and Lopez -- both of whom would be among the most coveted players in the July trade market if they're made available again -- would be a sensible course of action.


anyone who thinks Majewski is the 11th of 12th guy on this staff is crazy.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:41 PM
can anyone summarize Keith Law's thought's on Espn insider. My understanding is he thinks we got fleeced.

Well, the Mariners were fleeced when they got some lanky pitcher who was walking nearly 7 batters per nine innings when they traded All-Star Mark Langston to the Expos.

The REDS got the player with the most upside in this deal.

GriffeyFan
07-13-2006, 09:41 PM
except he doesn't have "stuff" anywhere near a BJ Ryan.

How do you know he doesn't have the "stuff" anywhere near a BJ Ryan? Are you a professional scout?

I find it funny that some of us can just spout out stuff about how good a certain player is with either not seeing him pitch at all or just seeing them a pitch a limited amount of times.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:42 PM
anyone who thinks Majewski is the 11th of 12th guy on this staff is crazy.

Majewski is a solid guy on anybody's staff.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:42 PM
18 months ago:

Nationals:

TOP TEN PROSPECTS
1. Mike Hinckley, lhp
2. Larry Broadway, 1b
3. Ryan Church, of
4. Clint Everts, rhp
5. Brendan Harris, inf
6. Bill Bray, lhp
7. Daryl Thompson, rhp

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 09:43 PM
anyone who thinks Majewski is the 11th of 12th guy on this staff is crazy.

I agree. I'd argue that Majewski becomes the ace of the bullpen immediately.

M2
07-13-2006, 09:43 PM
Wow, Jim Bowden just USED Wayne Krivsky.

I've been a supporter of most everything Krivsky's done to date, but this trade is baffling. Basically this deal has to pay off immediately. The Reds have to suffer no ill effects on offense, the starting pitching staff the team currently offers has to come up big and Bray and Majewski have to cause a complete 180 in the bullpen.

Why? Because the Reds just traded more for bullpen help than any team in history. Kearns and Lopez, either on the team or as trade bait for pieces for next season, put this team in a vastly superior talent position than what's come in return for them.

Anyway, as others have mentioned, Majewski puts a lot of runners on and doesn't make a lot of guys miss. Bray looks a little better on that front, but he's still hardly the kind of shut-down reliever the team optimally ought to be looking for. So I think the immediate fix these two offer isn't that great. While you can argue that they're young and they'll be around for awhile, I'm not sure either of these two qualifies as anything near a foundational piece for the bullpen moving forward. Unless they can find a way to make hitter swing and miss a lot more often, they're likely to be feast or famine pitchers dependent on whether balls in play find the holes.

Royce Clayton ... well, it's just regrettable that we have to watch him pull on a Reds jersey.

Brendan Harris might make a useful bench player.

Thompson's like buying a lottery scratch ticket.

Yet the real shame of this deal, to me, is the Reds are married to a rotation with Eric Milton, Elizardo Ramirez and Joe Mays/Brandon Claussen/TBA. IMO, even if this deal does fix the bullpen, the rotation will undercut it in the second half.

vaticanplum
07-13-2006, 09:46 PM
I'm sorry if this has been covered, but can somebody tell me how long these guys are in Reds' control now?

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:47 PM
Well, the Mariners were fleeced when they got some lanky pitcher who was walking nearly 7 batters per nine innings when they traded All-Star Mark Langston to the Expos.

The REDS got the player with the most upside in this deal.
It's tough to even talk about someone who's upside is as a reliever. The best relievers, historically, are starters turned relievers. I'd rather still have Kearns.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:47 PM
But we are also talking Jim Bowden too. Remember him? ;)

True, and who better knows how to trade away good prospects for veterans than Jim Bowden?

SunDeck
07-13-2006, 09:48 PM
"Royce knows how to play the game the right way," Narron said. "He’s a pro. We have to play solid defensively and you need a shortstop like Royce to take charge in your infield.

:rolleyes:

RedLegSuperStar
07-13-2006, 09:48 PM
bergolla will go back down and soem pitchers will be DFA'd

I think Bergolla, Wise, and Standridge go down If not Standridge then they DL Weathers

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 09:48 PM
They can still trade Larue, Freel, Griffey or prospects, but I agree that they need some starting pitching as well.

Assuming this is the going price for pitching... If this is all that Austin Kearns AND Felipe Lopez bought -- do you really think Jason LaRue has any value whatsoever?

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:49 PM
Assuming this is the going price for pitching... If this is all that Austin Kearns AND Felipe Lopez bought -- do you really think Jason LaRue has any value whatsoever?
LaRue will bring a Mike Burns type.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:50 PM
Dunn has been hitting .313 over his last 13 games....Freel has been great the last month...Ed E is back and ready to play...Aurilia is back...

I'd rather try to win a game 5-4 than 9-8.

Eric_Davis
07-13-2006, 09:52 PM
Enjoy the second half everyone....

It will be different.

Good Luck!

Go REDS!

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:52 PM
Wow, Jim Bowden just USED Wayne Krivsky.

I've been a supporter of most everything Krivsky's done to date, but this trade is baffling. Basically this deal has to pay off immediately. The Reds have to suffer no ill effects on offense, the starting pitching staff the team currently offers has to come up big and Bray and Majewski have to cause a complete 180 in the bullpen.

Why? Because the Reds just traded more for bullpen help than any team in history. Kearns and Lopez, either on the team or as trade bait for pieces for next season, put this team in a vastly superior talent position than what's come in return for them.

Anyway, as others have mentioned, Majewski puts a lot of runners on and doesn't make a lot of guys miss. Bray looks a little better on that front, but he's still hardly the kind of shut-down reliever the team optimally ought to be looking for. So I think the immediate fix these two offer isn't that great. While you can argue that they're young and they'll be around for awhile, I'm not sure either of these two qualifies as anything near a foundational piece for the bullpen moving forward. Unless they can find a way to make hitter swing and miss a lot more often, they're likely to be feast or famine pitchers dependent on whether balls in play find the holes.

Royce Clayton ... well, it's just regrettable that we have to watch him pull on a Reds jersey.

Brendan Harris might make a useful bench player.

Thompson's like buying a lottery scratch ticket.

Yet the real shame of this deal, to me, is the Reds are married to a rotation with Eric Milton, Elizardo Ramirez and Joe Mays/Brandon Claussen/TBA. IMO, even if this deal does fix the bullpen, the rotation will undercut it in the second half.


I know it's not much of a sample, but Bray strikes out a ton. He hasn't really pitched enough to know how good he is IMO.

Also, who is to say that Krivsky is done? He may go out and get another starter. The only problem is that they don't have much to trade with now.

The organization has now shown that it wants to win this year. It's time to give up Homer and company to get it done. If they don't get, at least, one really good starter, well, this trade was lame. I'm going to wait and see what happens.

I am arguing with myself because, if all of that happens, the Reds still can't beat the Mets and probably the Cardinals this year. I really think Krivsky believes he got the best of the deal.

There is always Jr. to the Sox for some pitching, they have plenty at all levels.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:53 PM
I think the pro-trade faction of the board is misunderstanding the anti-trade side. Speaking for me, I don't like the trade b/c of who Krivsky traded. No one is complaining about the BP help. It was quite obvious early on that they needed this. But not at the price they paid. Please look at any arguments against the trade in this light.

No back to our regularly scheduled arguments about the BS trade today, OBP and Adam Dunn. :D

Cyclone792
07-13-2006, 09:53 PM
"Royce knows how to play the game the right way," Narron said. "He’s a pro. We have to play solid defensively and you need a shortstop like Royce to take charge in your infield."

:rolleyes:

When I heard Narron say that in the press conference, I just couldn't help but laugh. Royce Clayton may be a 2006 stopgap, but what Narron's implying is that a Royce Clayton stopgap = regular starting shortstop for the remainder of the season.

This is why I hate it when the Reds acquire guys like a Royce Clayton.

Nugget
07-13-2006, 09:54 PM
Good Trade at the nd of the day.

REDSZONE has an infatuation with the trade value of hitters or potential hitters.

If you look at the same "experts" on their opinions on Phillips and Ross they could be reflected in Harris. Also Bray would have far more upside than Wags at this time. Don't forget that even if the REDS do win now they haven't given up their chance to win in the future.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 09:55 PM
I hope Narron is ready to replace Milton on short notice this inning

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:55 PM
I hope Narron is ready to replace Milton on short notice this inning

wrong thread. :D

oregonred
07-13-2006, 09:57 PM
But the starting pitching is still lacking, it's true...I wonder if it's just impossible to get for what we're willing to give up at this point?

Well let's look at the two best and very deep pocketed NL teams and a certain team in the Bronx.

1) Cards just traded for a DFA (Weaver) and have no one with other than Carpenter and Reyes under a 5 ERA on their staff

2) Mets have Jose Lima currently in their rotation

3) The $200M payroll Yankees just signed Sidney Ponson who was DFA'd by team #1 above and replaced by said DFA above

pedro
07-13-2006, 09:58 PM
Assuming this is the going price for pitching... If this is all that Austin Kearns AND Felipe Lopez bought -- do you really think Jason LaRue has any value whatsoever?

Yeah I do. He's a catcher. TMBS, it really depends on whether a market for catchers develops and there doesn't seem to be one now. That can change quickly though.

I might also add that maybe this proves that there wasn't much of a market for crappy fielding short stops who aren't hitting all that well or fragile outfielders with histories of inconsistency.

Honestly, who is going to trade for Felipe Lopez with the idea of playing him at SS knowing he's in his arb year and his agent is Scott Boros? And if you aren't going to trade for Lopez with idea of playing him at SS, are you going to pay big to get a guy you know you are going to move to 2B wher he may or may not be any better?

I think the Reds were resigned to letting Lopez walk this year and decided to get what they coudl for him.

NC Reds
07-13-2006, 09:59 PM
No one can convince me that an aging Griffey would not have fetched middle relief help, if that is all we were looking for. It is obvious we need relief pitching, but at the expense of two 26 yr old big league veterans?

Kearns and Lopez are entering the primes of their careers and the Nationals will reap the benefits.

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 09:59 PM
I hope Narron is ready to replace Milton on short notice this inning
I think this is valuable in any thread;)

westofyou
07-13-2006, 10:00 PM
No one can convince me that an aging Griffey would not have fetched middle relief help, if that is all we were looking for. It is obvious we need relief pitching, but at the expense of two 26 yr old big league veterans?

Kearns and Lopez are entering the primes of their careers and the Nationals will reap the benefits.
Griffey has trade veto.

M2
07-13-2006, 10:00 PM
Also, who is to say that Krivsky is done? He may go out and get another starter. The only problem is that they don't have much to trade with now.

The organization has now shown that it wants to win this year. It's time to give up Homer and company to get it done. If they don't get, at least, one really good starter, well, this trade was lame. I'm going to wait and see what happens.

You skewered the main problem, Krivsky just burned his major league trading chips to acquire questionable bullpen help. You're right that Bray does have better swing and miss skills than I credited him for, but he's hardly setting the majors on fire at the moment.

As for future trades, maybe those will help the Reds. Regardless of that, I don't think one ever will. It's looking like a nag in the starting gate. My guess is in five years people will be shaking their heads over what the Reds got in return for Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.

Kc61
07-13-2006, 10:01 PM
One thing about the trade. It shows that Krivsky really disliked Lopez and Kearns as players. Lopez obviously because of his defense. Kearns perhaps because he is streaky, Ks a lot, and doesn't run that well.

I think there's an element in this trade that Krivsky just didn't want these guys on the team long term. Doesn't justify an inadequate return, but probably a factor.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 10:01 PM
Yeah I do. He's a catcher. TMBS, it really depends on whether a market for catchers develops and there doesn't seem to be one now. That can change quickly though.

I might also add that maybe this proves that there wasn't much of a market for crappy fielding short stops who aren't hitting all that well or fragile outfielders with histories of inconsistency.

Honestly, who is going to trade for Felipe Lopez with the idea of playing him at SS knowing he's in his arb year and his agent is Scott Boros? And if you aren't going to trade for Lopez with idea of playing him at SS, are you going to pay big to get a guy you know you are going to move to 2B wher he may or may not be any better?

I think the Reds were resigned to letting Lopez walk this year and decided to get what they coudl for him.
Can someone trade for him with the idea of playing him at 2b? He is still talented...let's not act like he is Royce Clayton.

TC81190
07-13-2006, 10:01 PM
A good young shortstop and a good hitting RF that can field pretty well, and all you get in return is a couple of relief pitchers? This is saddening. One because FeLo was gone, and was excellent and my favorite player, and two, because we didn't get Hinckley or Soriano or a starting pitcher back.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 10:01 PM
Griffey has trade veto.
That's too bad.

pedro
07-13-2006, 10:01 PM
One thing I've been thinking is this trade might mean another IF has to go. Maybe we'll get lucky and they'll DFA Castro. But I doubt it.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 10:03 PM
I think this is valuable in any thread;)I meant to put it the other thread but I did call it before the inning started.

NC Reds
07-13-2006, 10:03 PM
Griffey has trade veto.

Griffey once said he would accept a trade to a World Series contender; my statement about moving him takes that into consideration. He can help any number of AL teams.

Aronchis
07-13-2006, 10:03 PM
No one can convince me that an aging Griffey would not have fetched middle relief help, if that is all we were looking for. It is obvious we need relief pitching, but at the expense of two 26 yr old big league veterans?

Kearns and Lopez are entering the primes of their careers and the Nationals will reap the benefits.

or Kearns returns to a injury prone malcontent(it isn't like his 2006 has overly wowed me either) and Lopez settles into a solid, but unspectaculer player.

Krivsky probably feels he made big headway getting our bullpen up to snuff by getting our next closer and a solid middle relief man. He was willing to maybe even overpay.

Interesting to see how it goes down, but 2001-05 Reds RIP.

Caveat Emperor
07-13-2006, 10:04 PM
Krivsky probably feels he made big headway getting our bullpen up to snuff by getting our next closer and a solid middle relief man. He was willing to maybe even overpay.

If you're looking to play this long term, all of these guys (or guys like them) could've been had for, by comparison, pennies on the dollar in the offseason.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 10:05 PM
My guess is in five years people will be shaking their heads over what the Reds got in return for Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez.

you are probably right, but a boy can dream, right? :cool:

M2
07-13-2006, 10:05 PM
but 2001-05 Reds RIP.

The 2001-2005 Reds are dead, long live the 2001-2005 Reds!

Aronchis
07-13-2006, 10:07 PM
If you're looking to play this long term, all of these guys (or guys like them) could've been had for, by comparison, pennies on the dollar in the offseason.

Maybe, but Brey probably means a little more to Krivsky than we think. Will he live up to it?

westofyou
07-13-2006, 10:09 PM
As for future trades, maybe those will help the Reds. New owners also mean that said cash could go elswhere on the market, indications are that that is not a dream as it was before.

15fan
07-13-2006, 10:11 PM
If the Reds are going to compete, they can't go around paying $2 for $0.50 cent parts.

My guess is that Kearns by himself to Houston (either in the next 2.5 weeks or during the offseason) would have netted a better return.

Count me in the "blech" camp on this one.

Edit: Though I must admit that there are some decent salary implications for 2007. If Krivsky can find any takers at all for Milton over the off-season, the Reds might actually be able to make a decent move or two in the FA market. They could also look to take on another team's salary dump that inevitably happens each off-season (a la the Florida Marlins every couple of years).

johngalt
07-13-2006, 10:11 PM
The REDS got the player with the most upside in this deal.

You really think a potential closer has more upside than a potential 30/30 shortstop or a right fielder who can hit .300 with 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a cannon arm?

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 10:11 PM
New owners also mean that said cash could go elswhere on the market, indications are that that is not a dream as it was before.
Until the crowds start to get better, $ won't be going anywhere.

Aronchis
07-13-2006, 10:11 PM
You really think a potential closer has more upside than a potential 30/30 shortstop or a right fielder who can hit .300 with 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a cannon arm?

Kearns is not that player.

westofyou
07-13-2006, 10:13 PM
Until the crowds start to get better, $ won't be going anywhere.
Carl Lindner left, the new guy said he will spend and make more money.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 10:14 PM
Carl Lindner left, the new guy said he will spend and make more money.
Making money involves the crowds getting better. And I haven't seen anything yet to tell me that he will spend more money. I don't doubt him yet, but I'm not buying until I see something.

pedro
07-13-2006, 10:14 PM
You really think a potential closer has more upside than a potential 30/30 shortstop or a right fielder who can hit .300 with 30 homers, 100 RBIs and a cannon arm?

1. Lopez is never going to hit 30 HR's and he is a horrible defensive SS. If the Reds had any intention of moving into the future with Lopez playing SS, they'd be idiots.

2. I like Kearns a lot but he's never actually hit 30 HR's, had a 100 RBI's or hit .300 and maybe he never will

IMO the Reds probably payed a little much but in reality I think they traded one guy (Lopez) who probably didn't fit inot their long term plans and one guy (Kearns) who they felt they could replace.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 10:14 PM
Making money involves the crowds getting better. And I haven't seen anything yet to tell me that he will spend more money. I don't doubt him yet, but I'm not buying until I see something.

they have to win games for the crowds to get better. they weren't doing too well with what they had.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 10:20 PM
they have to win games for the crowds to get better. they weren't doing too well with what they had.
They were winning earlier in the year and drawing 15k while they were in first. The funny thing is that, when people (including me) complain about the Yankees spending money, they draw no matter what time of year and no matter who they play. When the Reds are in first in May, it's a myriad of excuses:

1) "People don't show up until school lets out." That's BS.
2) "They've let us down before." BS again.
3) "Let's see where they are in August." BS, anyone?

I guess the fans want Cast to drop $100 million so they can wait to see what August brings? People forget the business aspect of the game.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 10:22 PM
They were winning earlier in the year and drawing 15k while they were in first. The funny thing is that, when people (including me) complain about the Yankees spending money, they draw no matter what time of year and no matter who they play. When the Reds are in first in May, it's a myriad of excuses:

1) "People don't show up until school lets out." That's BS.
2) "They've let us down before." BS again.
3) "Let's see where they are in August." BS, anyone?

I guess the fans want Cast to drop $100 million so they can wait to see what August brings? People forget the business aspect of the game.

i agree with all that. they want something to believe in IMO. They have watched a few mirages.

Tommyjohn25
07-13-2006, 10:25 PM
Well I'll have to say that my reaction to this trade pretty much followed the progression of this thread. I was out and about when it happened and my Dad called me to tell me what went down, at first I was livid at the thought of trading two established major league players for what my Dad said was "Three minor leaguers and Royce Clayton". I think you can see why I was angry given the info that was given to me. Upon listening to WLW and learning more about the trade, I began to calm down and look at it subjectively. Now, Kearns is my favorite Red, has been since he came up, but I feel that this part of the trade is a wash due to the fact that I believe Deno can fill his shoes very well. Next Lopez, I've never been his biggest fan though I do respect his talent, albeit declining this season, so I wasn't as upset to see him go. Last Wagner, didn't really care if he left or not as I didn't think he had a future with the Reds any longer.

Now the return, I feel pretty confident in it actually. I think we all know that the bully this year is nothing short of a joke, this will undoubtedly bolster this part of the team, imagine where these guys would be if they had held HALF of the leads they've blown, needless to say they'd be the frontrunners in this weakened division. Will it happen now? I think there is a shot, and I'll tell ya what, I like the chances better now, which is strange, but call it a gut feeling if you will. Give it a chance everyone, you never know.

In Wayne I Trust.

vaticanplum
07-13-2006, 10:29 PM
Well I'll have to say that my reaction to this trade pretty much followed the progression of this thread. I was out and about when it happened and my Dad called me to tell me what went down, at first I was livid at the thought of trading two established major league players for what my Dad said was "Three minor leaguers and Royce Clayton". I think you can see why I was angry given the info that was given to me. Upon listening to WLW and learning more about the trade, I began to calm down and look at it subjectively. Now, Kearns is my favorite Red, has been since he came up, but I feel that this part of the trade is a wash due to the fact that I believe Deno can fill his shoes very well. Next Lopez, I've never been his biggest fan though I do respect his talent, albeit declining this season, so I wasn't as upset to see him go. Last Wagner, didn't really care if he left or not as I didn't think he had a future with the Reds any longer.

Now the return, I feel pretty confident in it actually. I think we all know that the bully this year is nothing short of a joke, this will undoubtedly bolster this part of the team, imagine where these guys would be if they had held HALF of the leads they've blown, needless to say they'd be the frontrunners in this weakened division. Will it happen now? I think there is a shot, and I'll tell ya what, I like the chances better now, which is strange, but call it a gut feeling if you will. Give it a chance everyone, you never know.

In Wayne I Trust.

I agree with most of this.

It's a bad trade. That doesn't mean it won't work out well for us. I think it might.

Cedric
07-13-2006, 10:42 PM
I agree with most of this.

It's a bad trade. That doesn't mean it won't work out well for us. I think it might.

It's a bad trade with a good premise in my opinion. Having Phillips at SS and Denorfia in RF would be fine with some added top shelf talent. Too bad Wayne seemingly dropped the ball.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 10:44 PM
It's a bad trade with a good premise in my opinion. Having Phillips at SS and Denorfia in RF would be fine with some added top shelf talent. Too bad Wayne seemingly dropped the ball.

I pretty much agree. Good idea, but he got hosed in the execution.

dsmith421
07-13-2006, 10:57 PM
I just feel like if there was one bona fide impact arm in this deal--whether it be Patterson, Hernandez, Armas, even Hinckley--then it's defensible. As it stands, we gave away two starters for a league average middle reliever who doesn't strike people out, a guy who can't hit but Narron will play every night, and three question marks. That's just not an acceptable haul, and I refuse to believe that this package was the best Krivsky could have gotten for Lopez, Kearns, and Wagner.

REDREAD
07-13-2006, 10:58 PM
Well, you knew Bowden was going to rape the Reds at one point or another. This is a horrible trade. An allstar SS (Lopez) and a good everyday RF for two relievers? This is insane.

I doubt the pitching prospect we got from Wash is even as good as Wagner.

I've been a supporter of Wayne, but he laid a turd on this one.

traderumor
07-13-2006, 11:02 PM
I really don't see the relevance of Lopez being an "All-Star" shortstop. It is nice for him, but Dan Uggla will be traded one day as an "All-Star" second baseman.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 11:03 PM
I really don't see the relevance of Lopez being an "All-Star" shortstop. It is nice for him, but Dan Uggla will be traded one day as an "All-Star" second baseman.

Uggla has had a good year. Lopez hasn't.

Cedric
07-13-2006, 11:05 PM
Lopez is not a worry to me. He's had one above average year and he's been pretty bad in every other run. He's also one of the worst defensive SS in team history.

Kearns you have to get more for. IMO.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:06 PM
It's peculiar: they sold Kearns "high" and Lopez "low."

Jpup
07-13-2006, 11:07 PM
It's peculiar: they sold Kearns "high" and Lopez "low."

WaynO loves him some defense.

Aronchis
07-13-2006, 11:07 PM
Wayne Krivsky in "Good Intentions..........but bad execution" the motion picture.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 11:08 PM
It's peculiar: they sold Kearns "high" and Lopez "low."
The only "high" party involved in this deal was Wayne.

REDREAD
07-13-2006, 11:08 PM
Most likely a last minute dangle to be the SS the rest of the year, then Phillips goes to SS and Harris 2nd.

In two years Lopez will be expensive and not playing SS. Maybe one year too soon... but better than a year too late (Like with Kearns eh?)

I agree that getting Clayton as a stopgap is not a big deal.

As far as Lopez.. geez, he should be worth more than a relief pitcher. The Reds paid more to get him when he was an unproven prospect. Since then, he's at least established that he's a solid infield bat. Even if he has to move to 2b or 3b longterm, he's still very valuable.

If the Reds can't afford to keep a guy like Lopez because of $$, there's not much hope. (I don't want to believe that). Even if they had to dump him, he's worth more than a setup man reliever.

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-13-2006, 11:14 PM
Hahahaha....everybody is screaming that we have to revamp the bullpen and as many of us have pointed out, it's an expensive thing to do. So what happens? Kriv goes out and makes some moves and the board explodes with people screaming that we paid to much. Some people are actually suggesting bringing DanO back.

People have acted like Deno is the savior of the free world. Now he gets a chance to play and what happens? The board explodes! Kriv sucks! Bring back Bowden! We got robbed.

People have pounded on Lopez having the range of a turtle and the recient stats on defence show he's worst in the league. And he's getting ready to be really expensive. So Kriv moves him....But of course, because he's ours he must be worth $100,000,000,000,000 of player in return. "I'm gonna be sick". I want Wills, Carbrea, Clemons, and Jeter in return!

Not even 15 minutes to really stop and think about this being a good or bad trade. Just an instant explosion of "we suck", "its over", " I hate this team".

Good grief.
:clap:

REDREAD
07-13-2006, 11:19 PM
Assuming Denorfia/Kearns is a near wash and Clayton/Lopez is a near wash, .

IMO, it won't be a wash. Denorfia will be exposed as a marginal OF when he becomes an everyday starter. We take for granted that OF are easy to find, because we've been so fortunate for the last 15 years to have good OF.

Clayton isn't a gold glove either, and we're going to get a dropoff on offense from SS.

Cedric
07-13-2006, 11:19 PM
:clap:

I do'nt see what there is to clap about. I haven't read one person bemoaning the fact that Denorfia will be playing everyday. Does that mean the return is automatically good?

Of course not. Like I mentioned earlier, the premise was good and the execution seems very bad. I don't mind losing Lopez or Kearns, but getting Majewski as the centerpiece? That's not gonna do it. That's not doing the job.

REDREAD
07-13-2006, 11:28 PM
Lopez and Kearns would never have been here for seven years. Lopez could walk after this year - and at 6 million+ - he would have priced himself out of Cincinnati.
.

Wasn't this year Lopez's first year of arb? (First time was the 2005-2006 offseason, to be specific) I think the Reds controlled him through the end of 2008. He came up for I think parts of 2 or 3 seasons with the Blue Jays, but didn't acquire much service time.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 11:30 PM
On a talent for talent basis the Reds were a big loser and the success of this trade will more likely hinge on Denorfia than on the players acquired.

traderumor
07-13-2006, 11:32 PM
Uggla has had a good year. Lopez hasn't.That wasn't my point at all. The point was that Uggla is as likely to have one All-Star appearance as Lopez, yet when he is dumped, he will be referred to as an "All-Star second baseman." In other words, its not something that anyone should care about when evaluating the merits of the players involved. For example, Derrick Turnbow (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6420) made the All-Star team.

Jpup
07-13-2006, 11:33 PM
On a talent for talent basis the Reds were a big loser and the success of this trade will more likely hinge on Denorfia than on the players acquired.

you are forgetting, "Royce Clayton knows how to play the game, the right way."