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Jpup
07-13-2006, 11:34 PM
That wasn't my point at all. The point was that Uggla is as likely to have one All-Star appearance as Lopez, yet when he is dumped, he will be referred to as an "All-Star second baseman." In other words, its not something that anyone should care about when evaluating the merits of the players involved. For example, Derrick Turnbow (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6420) made the All-Star team.

I agree with ya.:thumbup:

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 11:34 PM
That wasn't my point at all. The point was that Uggla is as likely to have one All-Star appearance as Lopez, yet when he is dumped, he will be referred to as an "All-Star second baseman." In other words, its not something that anyone should care about when evaluating the merits of the players involved. For example, Derrick Turnbow (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6420) made the All-Star team.
I'd rather have him than Majewski.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:35 PM
That wasn't my point at all. The point was that Uggla is as likely to have one All-Star appearance as Lopez, yet when he is dumped, he will be referred to as an "All-Star second baseman." In other words, its not something that anyone should care about when evaluating the merits of the players involved. For example, Derrick Turnbow (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6420) made the All-Star team.

Whatever helps to raise a player's perceived value (be it "former all-star" or whatever) is important (or should be) when negotiating deals.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:36 PM
I'd rather have him than Majewski.

I disagree. I much prefer Majewski to Turnbow. Talk about a one-hit wonder, T-bow turned out to be.

KronoRed
07-13-2006, 11:37 PM
you are forgetting, "Royce Clayton knows how to play the game, the right way."
What does that even mean?

We need a Narron dictionary ;)

Reds/Flyers Fan
07-13-2006, 11:38 PM
For what it's worth, the Rockies TV likes the trade for the Reds. George Frazier said it was a trade the Reds had to make if the Reds want to stay with the Cardinals or in the WC hunt. Added that what we saw tonight was "Crazy," with the Reds having to bring in their closer despite starting the 9th inning with a 9-3 lead. Also said that Royce Clayton will help as a positive influence for Brandon Phillips.

Jeff Huson, a former big league pitcher, did say the Reds "overpaid" for these players.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 11:39 PM
you are forgetting, "Royce Clayton knows how to play the game, the right way."my comment was I would have been happier if it was 4 for 3 and the Nats keeping Clayton

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 11:40 PM
I disagree. I much prefer Majewski to Turnbow. Talk about a one-hit wonder, T-bow turned out to be.
Turnbow had two very bad games in July...before that his ERA was 3.28. He'll have better numbers than The Majic Man by the end of the year.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:41 PM
For what it's worth, the Rockies TV likes the trade for the Reds. George Frazier said it was a trade the Reds had to make if the Reds want to stay with the Cardinals or in the WC hunt. Added that what we saw tonight was "Crazy," with the Reds having to bring in their closer despite starting the 9th inning with a 9-3 lead. Also said that Royce Clayton will help as a positive influence for Brandon Phillips.

Jeff Huson, a former big league pitcher, did say the Reds "overpaid" for these players.


That the tying run was able to come to the plate in the ninth had everything to do with Narron's pathetic managing--only secondarily to do with the "talent" in the bullpen.

Reds Nd2
07-13-2006, 11:41 PM
you are forgetting, "Royce Clayton knows how to play the game, the right way."

The Reds might also end up with a Type A draft pick when they let him walk after this season too.

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 11:41 PM
For what it's worth, the Rockies TV likes the trade for the Reds. George Frazier said it was a trade the Reds had to make if the Reds want to stay with the Cardinals or in the WC hunt. Added that what we saw tonight was "Crazy," with the Reds having to bring in their closer despite starting the 9th inning with a 9-3 lead. Also said that Royce Clayton will help as a positive influence for Brandon Phillips.

Jeff Huson, a former big league pitcher, did say the Reds "overpaid" for these players.
Down goes Frazier! He must be still wobbly from all the beatings he took in the ring.

traderumor
07-13-2006, 11:43 PM
I'd rather have him than Majewski.Not sure about that, but then you're comparing a current closer to a setup man. I'd rather have Joe Nathan, too.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:44 PM
Turnbow had two very bad games in July...before that his ERA was 3.28. He'll have better numbers than The Majic Man by the end of the year.

Turnbow's horribly erratic--he's always only a couple of steps from turning into Marc Kroon.

Unassisted
07-13-2006, 11:45 PM
I think the pro-trade faction of the board is misunderstanding the anti-trade side. Speaking for me, I don't like the trade b/c of who Krivsky traded. No one is complaining about the BP help. It was quite obvious early on that they needed this. But not at the price they paid. Please look at any arguments against the trade in this light.I understand this perception very well, except that I'm on the opposite side of the same fence. I felt that Kearns and Lopez were uber-expendable. The Reds had to dance with whatever team was willing to part with pitching in exchange for spare parts to get a deal done.

I'm a bit (not a lot) disappointed with the return because they didn't get name pitching, but I am pleased that Wayne managed to find pitching that's potentially better than what the Reds had before.

I'm prepaed to be proven wrong, but my perception is that the bullpen has cost this team more games in 2006 than Kearns and Lopez have won for it.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 11:45 PM
I don't mind Majewski, he is an extreme GB pitcher(1.8) who doesn't give up many HRs. Gopherballitis has been the main problem of the Reds pen.

traderumor
07-13-2006, 11:45 PM
That the tying run was able to come to the plate in the ninth had everything to do with Narron's pathetic managing--only secondarily to do with the "talent" in the bullpen.Yea, bringing in a mop up man on the bubble to keep a job to mop up is just crazy. Bad mood, today, eh?

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:46 PM
Yea, bringing in a mop up man on the bubble to keep a job to mop up is just crazy. Bad mood, today, eh?


Leaving him in to surrender four runs is bad business.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 11:46 PM
I felt that Kearns ... was uber-expendable. only if Denorfia is ready to play and replace him. How well Denorfia produces is likely to be the key to the trade.

Falls City Beer
07-13-2006, 11:47 PM
only if Denorfia is ready to play and replace him. How well Denorfia produces is likely to be the key to the trade.

Getting more mileage out of limited trading chips is the key. That hasn't and won't change, unfortunately.

membengal
07-13-2006, 11:51 PM
My disgruntlement has to do with the return. I would have thought Kearns and Lopez, if actually dealt together, would have brought a much bigger bounty.

Maybe Bray will be a future closer. Maybe Majewski is the world's best set-up guy. Maybe Clayton will step on a rake, turn his ankle, and be unable to suit-up. But it's going to take a lot before I ever stop thinking that they should have gotten a LOT more for those two.

flyer85
07-13-2006, 11:52 PM
My disgruntlement has to do with the return. I would have thought Kearns and Lopez, if actually dealt together, would have brought a much bigger bounty.

Maybe Bray will be a future closer. Maybe Majewski is the world's best set-up guy. Maybe Clayton will step on a rake, turn his ankle, and be unable to suit-up. But it's going to take a lot before I ever stop thinking that they should have gotten a LOT more for those two.talentwise the Nats were the clear winner

REDREAD
07-13-2006, 11:55 PM
I don't understand why people are touting the payflex benefit of this deal.
Kearns and Lopez were not deadweight. They could easily be moved at any time.

Bowden has this right. As Johnny Footstool said with his stats, Kearns and Lopez are above average position players that Wash will have under control for at least 2 more years. Bowden can backfill the bullpen in the offseason.

Meanwhile, I bet the Reds have a lot more trouble finding an above average SS to replace Lopez. I bet by September, people are going to be over this wierd infatuation with Defornia and be complaining about how Denfornia is below average.

LoganBuck
07-14-2006, 12:04 AM
Whenever I think I about Lopez and his long term projection, I think of the PECOTA projection that listed him as being capable of a Allstar season to earn a paycheck, and then he will revert to norms. This was before last season. Lopez is a talent, but sadly Clayton is actually a better Defensive player, to bad he can actually say that he and Castro are contemporaries.

I wish we still had Kearns and had sent Denorfia instead.

I love Majeski and also have the semi man crush that Ramp was talking of, on Bray.

letsgojunior
07-14-2006, 12:08 AM
Wow, I just got home to find out that we've been pillaged by JimBo of all people.

Gut reaction is this is an awful, awful trade.

MartyFan
07-14-2006, 12:15 AM
I just got home and found out about the trade...I am sorry to see Kearns go...Lopez...okay...Wagner...Sure...I am VERY HAPPY to get the relief arms we are getting...My guess is that Clayton was something we had to take in order for the deal to go down...All in all I think this is a very good deal because we have Deno to replace Kearns...and we have a multitude of middle infielders to fill the spot of Lopez..

I think this will be good for both Lopez and Wagner especially because Larkin was great with Lopez and Pants drafted Wagner...Kearns, if he stays healthy will make it possible now for them to trade Soriano.

Jpup
07-14-2006, 12:18 AM
I just got home and found out about the trade...I am sorry to see Kearns go...Lopez...okay...Wagner...Sure...I am VERY HAPPY to get the relief arms we are getting...My guess is that Clayton was something we had to take in order for the deal to go down...All in all I think this is a very good deal because we have Deno to replace Kearns...and we have a multitude of middle infielders to fill the spot of Lopez..

I think this will be good for both Lopez and Wagner especially because Larkin was great with Lopez and Pants drafted Wagner...Kearns, if he stays healthy will make it possible now for them to trade Soriano.

they were trading Soriano anyway.

reds44
07-14-2006, 12:23 AM
http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2006/baseball/mlb/07/13/reds.nationals.ap/t1_trade.jpg

Felipe was one of my favorite Reds. I bought his ASG jersey last year. There is 200 bucks down the drain.

Oh well, the pen help will be gladly accepted.

DoogMinAmo
07-14-2006, 12:24 AM
Immediate reaction: Reds got fleeced for middling relievers

Now: I like the return a little better than before, but the Reds WAY overpaid.

The fact that another anonymous GM agreed means that there should have been more on the table for those two, especially + Wagner. Let's hope the year picked the Reds.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:25 AM
Now: I like the return a little better than before, but the Reds WAY overpaid.with an honest evaluation it's hard to see it any other way.

paulrichjr
07-14-2006, 12:28 AM
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060713&content_id=1555040&vkey=trade2006&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Ouch...This doesn't sound real good....

Last year, Majewski joined Chad Cordero, Luis Ayala and Hector Carrasco as one of the best relief corps in baseball. Majewski posted a 2.93 ERA in 79 games, but, this season, he was often hit hard and walked too many batters.

Some members of the organization felt that he was negatively influenced by then-bullpen coach John Wetteland, who was accused of changing Majewski's personality, a charge that Majewski denied. It appeared to some that Majewski cared more about shooting firecrackers and pulling pranks than winning ballgames.

Bray was considered the closer of the future. He was called up this season and appeared in 19 games and had a 3.91 ERA.

Nugget
07-14-2006, 12:28 AM
The arms out of the pen are the key. When you consider that both Bray and Maj are going to cost less now and for years to come than just Lopez then there is a benefit right there.

There is already a replacement for Lopez in the system. Phillips. The fact that they have Bergolla and Harris is set for next year. Aurilla, Clayton and Castro will be serviceable for subbing for Phillips and EdE when the need arises. Not forgetting that Freel is available as well.

Even though Kearns is an everyday player and Deno is unproven I think the risk is small as they are more than a wash in defense and Deno may not put up the power numbers but is probably going to have a higher OBP.

StillFunkyB
07-14-2006, 12:28 AM
What happens if Harris becomes Phillips v2.0?

gonelong
07-14-2006, 12:29 AM
I am OK with the trade.

Krivsky knew he had to do something with the pen in order to have any chance at all this year. A+ for trying, really trying, to win something THIS YEAR. That alone is noteworty (whether you think it was a good idea or not.) This is a clear shift in organizational philosophy.

IMO Lopez is not likely to reprise his role as an All-Star shortstop with big offensive numbers like the 2005 campaign. Lack of Range, EE young to his right, and Jr in CF was too much defensive liability up the middle. Lopez was about to get more expesive than he was worth next season ... as good as time as any to move him.

Kearns never seemed to be held in high regard by Narron or Krivsky ... I had a gut feeling he was going to be traded this season if he proved he could play a bit, and he did, and then he was. Kearns is also about to get pretty expensive for his production considering we have a possible/probable replacement in Denorfia waiting in the wings.

Denorfia in RF makes me happy. The kid will get a chance and that'll give us some idea if he can cut the mustard, something I think the Reds need to find out given his age. I think there is a real chance he gives us 85% of what Kearns would give us offensively and defensively.

Clayton at SS scares the daylights out of me. If we were putting Philllips at SS and Freel at 2B this trade would be a much better idea. If Clayton is the starting SS in 2007 with Castro as his backup I'll be PO'd to the nth degree.

That said, we don't lose much on defense with him as SS because we didn't have much. Offensively we lose quite a bit at SS I think.

All in all, I think we did pay a premium for these guys, but I don't think the important thing here was to win the trade from a talent perspective as it was to get bullpen help right now.

I am not much for "statements" from the front office, but I think this trade does let the players know that the organization is serious about trying to win and will do whatever it takes to get there. A kick in the pants.

This trade really does have the chance to haunt Krivsky, but I think he knows that and went and did it anyway. I like that.

I think the shock will wear off this trade, we'll still score a goodly amount of runs, and we will hold on to a few more of those leads. Unfortunately, I still don't see the Reds in the post-season.

GL

Nugget
07-14-2006, 12:30 AM
with an honest evaluation it's hard to see it any other way.

Krivs has already said that it was high price to pay but then I think that is the going rate. The other issue is that the REDS have no young BP talent in the farm. So if you wait till the offseason your going to have to shell out big bucks or once again be stuck with the "veteran" pen.

Nugget
07-14-2006, 12:31 AM
As far as I am aware Clayton, Castro and RA are free to leave at the end of this year.

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 12:32 AM
I really don't see the relevance of Lopez being an "All-Star" shortstop. It is nice for him, but Dan Uggla will be traded one day as an "All-Star" second baseman.

He broke through last year. He's off to a slow start this year, but he's a good bet to rebound.

Dunn had a bad season after his first good one too.

Kearns and Lopez were easily the two best players in this deal, in terms of production now and potential.

I still think the Reds should've been able to make this trade with just ONE of Kearns or Lopez.

What happened to all the people in 2003 that said that "good bullpen arms grow on trees" when we gave away White, Heredia, Sully, etc for nothing? Now some of them are justifying giving up two above average starting players for 2 relievers? Bree (or whatever his name is) might be decent, but the other one seems average at best. We will all grow to loathe this deal. This is insane.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:33 AM
The other issue is that the REDS have no young BP talent in the farm. there are 4 guys doing very well in AA and at least a couple are likely to pan out. The issue next year is the Reds current pen would probably only have Coffey and Belisle coming back.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 12:34 AM
All in all, I think we did pay a premium for these guys, but I don't think the important thing here was to win the trade from a talent perspective as it was to get bullpen help right now.

When the only positional help in the minors at AA and 1B, this team absolutely cannot afford to come out as far down on the talent swap as it did today.

Seriously -- if Denorfia bombs out as a starting outfielder, there closest real prospect in the system is Jay Bruce at Dayton. If Brandon Phillips 1-year-wonders it at 2B and can't hack it at SS, there's nothing down in the minors as a safety net at the 6 spot.

The Reds are so horridly thin at positional talent in the minors, trading proven MLs and not getting good return is just not smart business.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:36 AM
Seriously -- if Denorfia bombs out as a starting outfielder, there closest real prospect in the system is Jay Bruce at Dayton. I pointed out that WK was betting big on Denorfia and he had better be right.

reds44
07-14-2006, 12:37 AM
When the only positional help in the minors at AA and 1B, this team absolutely cannot afford to come out as far down on the talent swap as it did today.

Seriously -- if Denorfia bombs out as a starting outfielder, there closest real prospect in the system is Jay Bruce at Dayton. If Brandon Phillips 1-year-wonders it at 2B and can't hack it at SS, there's nothing down in the minors as a safety net at the 6 spot.

The Reds are so horridly thin at positional talent in the minors, trading proven MLs and not getting good return is just not smart business.
You can get decent COFers very easily.

Even if Deno doesn't pan out, there will be plenty of them floating around in free agency next year. SS is the hole I am worried about.

Team Clark
07-14-2006, 12:41 AM
Hahahaha....everybody is screaming that we have to revamp the bullpen and as many of us have pointed out, it's an expensive thing to do. So what happens? Kriv goes out and makes some moves and the board explodes with people screaming that we paid to much. Some people are actually suggesting bringing DanO back.

People have acted like Deno is the savior of the free world. Now he gets a chance to play and what happens? The board explodes! Kriv sucks! Bring back Bowden! We got robbed.

People have pounded on Lopez having the range of a turtle and the recient stats on defence show he's worst in the league. And he's getting ready to be really expensive. So Kriv moves him....But of course, because he's ours he must be worth $100,000,000,000,000 of player in return. "I'm gonna be sick". I want Wills, Carbrea, Clemons, and Jeter in return!

Not even 15 minutes to really stop and think about this being a good or bad trade. Just an instant explosion of "we suck", "its over", " I hate this team".

Good grief.

Well said. Actually Dead On. Great job by krivsky dealing early while some pitching is still available. Waiting for a "better" deal is like waiting at the alter if she's an hour late. Gonna be a long wait. The market is ridculously tight right now and very well may be through the 31st.

Kearns moving on is great for this Reds team. His persona, work ethic and uppercut stroke are the Reds problem no longer. I dare him to try the stuff with Frank Robinson that he got away with in Cincy. Good luck buddy, call you in a few weeks. Kearns hates Bowden so this will be good to watch from the sidelines.

FeLo I personally would have held back but Castro is outplaying him so why not move him at this point? Nice job by Castro putting a stamp on his ticket tonight. Not sure who the SS of the future is but I suspect it will be Phillips once Bergolla quits peeing down his leg every time he gets a ML AB.

I can forsee Mercker getting moved tomorrow. Standridge will go back to AAA. He's a real wuss for someone his size AND havng a 97 MPH FB. If you can't throw it with confidence then get the hell out.

Guardado, and Gray will get guys out. Magic closing would be a bonus. Coffey, regrows some cahones and fixes the tipping problem he can go back to being an effective 7th, 8th inning guy. I like Belisle in the 6th or 7th. This could really be good for the Res.

Dunn has shown some incredible strides since he was lashed by the organization 3 weeks ago. Dunner pulled up his bootstraps for which I give him a lot of credit. Someone may actually print in the paper what has been going on. Then again maybe they fear the FO? Who knows?

LaRue is out. Unless one of the deals that are on the table for him fall through in the next two weeks, he's gone as soon as Ross is healthy. Good thing he has been hitting a little.

Aurillia is probably not going anywhere. I know for a fact that two clubs have been after him since Mid June. With Freel relegated to PH duties for the time being AND considering that Aurillia is Narron's go to guy I'd put my money on him staying.

Team Clark
07-14-2006, 12:44 AM
Yeah, we look at every move as if it was the only move to be made.

Krivsky is systematically remaking the team. After the last five years, I'm happy that it's happening.

I know a lot of us here hate the way he's doing it. Only time will tell.

He's not done by a long shot. The Cardinals are weak. Time to strike.

gonelong
07-14-2006, 12:47 AM
Seriously -- if Denorfia bombs out as a starting outfielder, there closest real prospect in the system is Jay Bruce at Dayton.

Krivsky has made no secrets of his affinity for Denorfia, he is basically betting this trade on him so he feels the kid is ready. IMO we'll get 85% of Kearns production from Denorfia.


If Brandon Phillips 1-year-wonders it at 2B and can't hack it at SS, there's nothing down in the minors as a safety net at the 6 spot.

Phillips very well might not have this type of season again. He hasn't seemed to have a prolonged slump all season. Shortstop is troublesome.


The Reds are so horridly thin at positional talent in the minors, trading proven MLs and not getting good return is just not smart business.

I agree the Reds lost the trade on a pure talent level, but I also think the team on the field has been improved. While you couldn't survive making a habit of losing talent in trades, I think this one has a real chance to work pretty well for the team. I guess we'll see.

I look at the numbers, depth chart, and salary implications going forward and can't get too worked up about this trade even though I freely admit it had a chance to become a Hindenburgh. No guts, no glory.

GL

Marc D
07-14-2006, 12:49 AM
Aurillia is probably not going anywhere. I know for a fact that two clubs have been after him since Mid June. With Freel relegated to PH duties for the time being AND considering that Aurillia is Narron's go to guy I'd put my money on him staying.

The day they trade Aurillia, Narron will committ sepuku in centerfield with Marty standing by to apply the finishing stroke.

MWM
07-14-2006, 12:51 AM
I haven't said much either way about Krivsky's deals so far, but put me in the crowd who hates this deal. And I'm not going to apologize for feeling that way. Majewski's decent, but nothing special. An improvement, yes! Worthy of what he demanded, no!

Some have suggested Lopez and Kearns are over-valued here. I think some have undervalued them as well. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

I guess it boils down to how much you value this season. Personally, I couldn't care less about this season. The Reds have no chance and I think most of us know it. I hate to see us part with assets, even if they're not as valuable as we'd like to believe, to help this year when they could be traded for something for the future.

And I don't mind losing Kearns or Lopez. I would have rather they used as part of deals to get one or two stronger players that will help next year and beyond.

And one thing that gets under my skin a little is that if someone wanted bullpen help, but don't like this particular trade, then somehow they're being unreasonable or a hypocrite. That's just silly and illogical in its own right.

Patrick Bateman
07-14-2006, 01:01 AM
I have absolutely no problem trading Kearns and Lopez. This was a good time to trade them. They were on the verge of becoming expensive and we had cheaper alternatives waiting in the wings (Denorfia in right, Phillips at SS, and Freel at 2nd).

The plan was smart, however, the return we got was simply not good enough. We aren't really a worse team now then we were before the trade (excepting the fact that Clayton is going to get the majority of at-bats when there are better alternatives, plus we have less depth then before) since we have a couple guys who should actually be major league calibre relievers right now, but we didn't get nearly full value for the package we dealt.

The guys we got seem like a suitable return for simply Lopez or Kearns, not both. We should have been able to get a top prospect or 2. Instead, we got a mixed bag of "stuff". Relievers like Majewski shouldn't really be that difficlut to find that we have to resort to trading guys like Kearns for him. He's really not that different than guys like Hancock/Reitsma. Majewski is clearly an upgrade over our current staff and will help considerably in our bullpen in a set-up role for the next 3-4 years, b

Bray is clearly the keeper in the deal and he's more of a "B" prospect considering he's viewed as a reliever rather than a starter. He's a good prospect (probably our 3rd or 4th best), but he shouldn't be the centerpiece of a trade where we give up Kearns and Lopez. I find it hard to believe that Krivsky couldn't find a team willing to give up a better package of prospects.

Thompson seems like he's got some very nice potential if he puts it all together, but he's a pretty big mystery as of now. He's in A ball with some big injuries already. He's a good sleeper, but I don't particularly like his chances of developing into a good major league pitcher. It could happen, but our success rate with pitchers would suggest otherwise.

Clayton fits into the category of my least favorite players that have been acquired by the Reds this year. First Womack, then McCracken, then Yan, then Castro, and now Clayton. At his age, he's no longer a capable fielding SS (albeit way better than Lopez) and he's never been a good hitter. It's hard to find a reason to find joy in watching him play on a regular basis in a Reds jersey. I prey Narron comes to the conclusion of shifting Phillips to SS before we have to cringe every time we see him in the line-up.

Harris will probably be a decent utility player. Certainly not a great player, but a solid back-up that can play multiple positions decently, while being able to supply some decent level of hitting (720-750 OPS). He could probably start down the road and get a decent level of production at a cheap rate as a stop-gap.

All in all, we may be a better team this year, next year, and after that, but it doesn't neccessarily make it a good trade. We traded from a position of strength and got well below market value for them. We definitely could have done better, and be even better set-up for the future. Any way you slice it, we could have gotten better players.

M2
07-14-2006, 01:01 AM
The more I reflect on this trade, the more horrified I become.

1) Juan Castro/Royce Clayton are going to own a slot in the Reds' lineup for the rest of the season.

2) Chris Denorfia has been stationed in RF, not CF.

3) Majewski's got a .262 BABIP and control issues.

4) Krivsky's desperation move to acquire middle relief has tipped his hand. Other GMs are going to ask for and expect a king's ransom if he comes asking for a starter.

This trade has a Denny Neagle 2000 feel to it for me. I know what went out the door was worth something and I'm highly suspicious of what's coming back in return. Bill Bray had better have a star turn in him.

Heath
07-14-2006, 01:02 AM
He's not done by a long shot. The Cardinals are weak. Time to strike.


TC, since you are in the know - tell the RZ'ers the over-valuing of Kearns and Lopez without the Red-Tinted glasses.

gonelong
07-14-2006, 01:03 AM
I guess it boils down to how much you value this season. Personally, I couldn't care less about this season. The Reds have no chance and I think most of us know it.


Normally I'd agree with you. I just get a gut feeling this will work out OK.

I think the Reds have a chance only because the Cards are faltering ever so seriously.

Hopefully this season is the first domino that restores some of the excitement around this franchise. We see how a good run increased interest in the Bengals exponentially. I think the Reds are sitting on a powder keg but haven't been able to keep their matches dry, and I think Krivsky has a chance to be that point guy like Mavin is for the Bengals.

This trade will go a long way to defining Krivsky's legacy here.

GL

reds44
07-14-2006, 01:04 AM
Here are my final thoughts:

Pitching and hitting are nowhere near equal value. To get good pitching, you are going to have to give up better hitting. It is basiclaly that simple. Krivsky dealt his best strength (hitting) to try to fix his biggest weakness (bullpen and defense).

It's not as if Kearns and FeLo are sure things. Lopez is a bad defender who is OPSing and a pedestrian .749, and can't hit lefties. Before last year he had never hit above .260 in a season. Kearns has never played an entire, healthy season in his career. Before this year the most games he had played was 112 in his 5 year career. He had already grounded into 14 DPs this year, and struck out 85 times. Kearns was a power hitter who strikes out alot, and we have an abundance of those. Freel/Denorfia will be more of contact/SB guys, which is something we didn't have.

With Castro/Clayton at SS, it will allow us to mask Edwin's shortcomings there right now. Edwin has all the tools to be a very good defensive 3rd base (very good range and arm), but he struggles with throwing accuracy. This team was not going to make the playoffs with that bad of a defensive left side of the field (if you include Dunn), but now with Castro and Clayton at SS, it improves you defense drastically. Edwin, at age 23, was already argueably a better hitter then Lopez, and he could devolp into a good defensive 3rd baseman. Lopez isn't going to improve on defense. In the end, I think Wayne was almost forced to move either Lopez or Edwin, and moving Lopez was definately the right move.

In return we are getting 2 solid and young relievers. Ramirez, Arroyo, Harang, and at some points Milton have been very solid in our rotation this year. If they can just go 6-7 innings, you can get the ball to Bray/Majewski/Guardado, and you have a good shot at winning. Lately the bullpen couldn't get anybody out. There was not 1 pitcher you can rely on to come in and get outs consitently. Something had to be done, and Wayne did it.

When it comes down to it, the last 6 years the Reds have been trying to win with offense, and it has failed miserably. We needed to improve the pitching staff, and Wayne has done it. Our offense isn't going to suffer much at all, and the bullpen just got twice as good.

Not to mention we got 2 of their better prospects in Harris and Thompson.


I'm done! Lets go win the hole freaking thing!
:beerme:

DoogMinAmo
07-14-2006, 01:04 AM
there are 4 guys doing very well in AA and at least a couple are likely to pan out. The issue next year is the Reds current pen would probably only have Coffey and Belisle coming back.

Based on current performances, hardly an issue

Reds Nd2
07-14-2006, 01:06 AM
The Reds might also end up with a Type A draft pick when they let him walk after this season too.

Of course that means the Reds have to offer him arbitration and he has to decline. Then he has to sign with another team. For the Reds to receive a Type A compensation draft pick in the '07 Rule IV draft, Clayton will have to finish in the top 30% of SS's for the past two seasons. (He did finish in the 30th percentile in '05. The D-Backs didn't offer him arb.)

Not exactly getting a free draft pick by letting him walk as I implied. Sorry. :doh:

Hey, after working 14 hours today, my brain isn't functioning correctly. I'm still trying to figure out how Lopez is an above average SS.

gonelong
07-14-2006, 01:06 AM
I gotta say, one thing that scares me about this trade is that the posters that I normally find myself agreeing on 90% of things with hate the heck out of this trade. Gulp.

GL

Marc D
07-14-2006, 01:07 AM
I want to see anyone still try and put lipstick on this pig when Bowden turns around and flips one or both of these guys for more than he just bought them for.

reds44
07-14-2006, 01:08 AM
I want to see anyone still try and put lipstick on this pig when Bowden turns around and flips one or both of these guys for more than he just bought them for.
Maybe in the terms of prospects, but not MLB ready pitching help.

Marc D
07-14-2006, 01:09 AM
Maybe in the terms of prospects, but not MLB ready pitching help.

We shall see.

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 01:10 AM
The more I reflect on this trade, the more horrified I become.
.

Great analysis. We know SS is going to be a blackhole now. At least with Lopez, there was a decent chance he'd bounce back.

I'm worried that Defornia is going to flop with extended playing time (or at best be below average).

We just lost a lot of power from the lineup. That's going to make it even harder to get to the revamped bullpen with a lead when our #3-5 starters are on the mound.

I'm just not pumped with the best case scenerio here. Bray becomes a capable closer, and Majestico becomes an average middle reliever.
Even in the best case scenerio, I'm not sure those two guys can cover enough innings to make a difference. Plus, I think people are underestimating the amount the offense has been degraded (and I think the defense has been degraded as well by having Clayton and Defornia in there).

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 01:11 AM
Maybe in the terms of prospects, but not MLB ready pitching help.

And I ask again -- what possible good does MLB-ready bullpen help do for a team that trots out Eric Milton, Elizardo Ramirez and Joe Mays or Brandon Claussen to the mound three times a week?

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 09:31 AM
Another fallout out of this trade is that now our lineup is extremely vulnerable to injuries. If Jr or Dunn gets hurt, we're going to struggle a lot to score runs (the other guy will get pitched around). Our depth has been reduced to Freel (nothing in the minors even close to being ready).

It's a huge risk to hand Defornia and Clayton/Castro everyday jobs. Both those slots (RF and SS) could end up being easy outs in the lineup. Neither is going to generate slugging.

I still can't believe we gave Washington all of our trading chips. Now it's going to be impossible to trade for a quality starting pitcher in the near future (including the offseason) without giving up Homer or Bruce.

Krusty
07-14-2006, 09:33 AM
First time I had to post so let me add my thoughts:

1. Five losing seasons. It is time for us to break the hex.

2. 9-20 the last 29 games with the bullpen self-destructing. Something had to be done.

3. Royce Clayton will be steadier on defense than Lopez. Come 2007 introduce Brandon Phillips as the everyday shortstop.

4. Say you what about Kearns but up till this year, we all wonder if he would live up to his hype. Can we really say he will be putting up numbers like the 2006 season for the next five or six years?

5. Krivsky didn't get rental players. Both Majeska and Bray will be a factor for the next two or three seasons. Bray might be a future closer. If anything these additions to the bullpen could have the same impact as Arroyo did for the starting rotation.

6. The Reds are moving from free swinging power hitters that are also noted for their strikeouts to more contact hitters like Denorfia and Hatteberg.

7. Anybody think Brenden Harris will be the second baseman come 2007 season?

8. I still think Krivisky has one more move to bring in a starting pitcher.

9. Pitching and defense wins games. And that is what Krivsky and Narron is striving for.

10. If you wanted a slobber-knocker deal, Krivsky just delivered.

Krusty
07-14-2006, 09:34 AM
And I ask again -- what possible good does MLB-ready bullpen help do for a team that trots out Eric Milton, Elizardo Ramirez and Joe Mays or Brandon Claussen to the mound three times a week?


Ramirez has pitched well. Milton is alright as a fourth or fifth starter. I do think Krivsky will make one more deal to add a starting pitcher.

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 09:35 AM
Last year's in-season deals for ML relief pitching:

1) Matt Kata for Tim Worrell
2) Roman Colon and Zach Minor for Farnsworth
3) Polanco for Ugie Urbina and Ramon Martinez
4) Yormin Bazardo and Mike Flannery for Ron Villone

Those are just a few examples. I do not see anything on here that would even come close to comparing with Kearns and Lopez. And you can say that it is a different market, but then Wayne should have stood pat, IMO. He must have really disliked Kearns and Lopez.

If this is what it cost for Maj and Bray, then maybe he should have went down a notch. Just my opinion.

BTW, does Maj get a haircut before tonight's game?

flyer85
07-14-2006, 09:35 AM
After everything that has been said IMHO the biggest problem this team was and still is going to have in the 2nd half was the 4/5 spots in the rotation, not the bullpen.

I guess one thing you can say about WK is that he has a big pair, unlike the previous GM who was missing his completely.

Gainesville Red
07-14-2006, 09:37 AM
BTW, does Maj get a haircut before tonight's game?

Arroyo didn't.

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 09:39 AM
6. The Reds are moving from free swinging power hitters that are also noted for their strikeouts to more contact hitters like Denorfia and Hatteberg.
I wouldn't exactly call Kearns "free-swinging".

Krusty
07-14-2006, 09:41 AM
I wouldn't exactly call Kearns "free-swinging".

Kearns is on pace for 150 strikeouts. He has 85 right now. I would say that's alot.

Ltlabner
07-14-2006, 09:47 AM
Seriously -- if Denorfia bombs out as a starting outfielder, there closest real prospect in the system is Jay Bruce at Dayton. If Brandon Phillips 1-year-wonders it at 2B and can't hack it at SS, there's nothing down in the minors as a safety net at the 6 spot.

Geez CE, sounds a bit like DanO there. While you have to take in account your farm system when making trades, if you play the "what if" game with every trade no trades would ever be made. I understand thinking through all the outcomes but you can also shut yourself down thinking and never get anything done.

Wasn't it just last year that AK was sent to Louisville to get his head on straight? This is the same AK that hasn't been healthy for a full year in a while? The same AK that strikes out a fair amount? I like AK, think he's a good player and has the possibility to a great player. But I don't think he's worth all 5 players we got all by himself.

I'm not upset one bit about Lopez. He was an allstar last year. Great. Does that mean he's always going to play at that level? People are saying "what if BP flops". Ummm...doesn't that apply to Lopez too? What if Lopez never goes back to his all-star year? We've seen all the stats reciently that show he's a defensive liability. He's got some pop in his bat, but he's been pretty slow this year in hitting.

Wagners a waste...never going to do anything for us. People don't like Clayton and I can see why. But while Washinton gets a broken down arm that is regressing we get a servicable guy that along with Castro can fill a void in the short term. How's that not a plus? If Clayton is there next year, then we have a big problem.

I'm not knocking AK or Lopez but let's not go overboard with their value. People are saying this is a "white flag" move. To me, doing nothing would be a capulation on this season. The FO would be saying, "we don't care that our bullpen is going to drag us down, we'll get them next season". That's a white flag!

If it's so easy to get middle releavers, then why are so many teams struggling with their bullpens? If bullpen help was growing on trees they'd just run out and grab a couple.

I'm not sold on this deal by any strech. Only time will tell but I can understand the rationale behind it.

15fan
07-14-2006, 09:49 AM
This trade has a Denny Neagle 2000 feel to it for me. I know what went out the door was worth something and I'm highly suspicious of what's coming back in return. Bill Bray had better have a star turn in him.

I was thinking along the lines of John Wetteland for Dave Martinez, Scott Ruskin and Willie Greene.

A bird in the hand for, well, some seeds that might one day turn into a bush that might attract some birds.

Phhhl
07-14-2006, 10:02 AM
There are going to be more relievers moved before the deadline. Let's see what some of those fetch. I am guessing nobody is going to cough up their starting shortstop and right fielder, or anything that close to the core of their team.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 10:04 AM
Even DanO never made a trade this bad.

Yeah, DanO got us a certain free agent, but....

Jpup
07-14-2006, 10:04 AM
There are going to be more relievers moved before the deadline. Let's see what some of those fetch. I am guessing nobody is going to cough up their starting shortstop and right fielder, or anything that close to the core of their team.

I'm not so sure that Majewski was not the best arm available, in terms of the bullpen.

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 10:12 AM
I'm not so sure that Majewski was not the best arm available, in terms of the bullpen.
For Kearns and Lopez, arms that aren;t available could be available, IMO.

lollipopcurve
07-14-2006, 10:17 AM
Gutsy trade by WK, I gotta give him credit for that. We're not used to this kind of infrastructure-building thing -- with Bowden it was that diamond-in-the-rough, the future all-star, the bright shiny possibility. With O'Brien it was baby steps in the direction of a long-term vision cast many miles into the future.

Now Wayne is sacrificing our Red meat, offense, for veggies. No wonder we're banging our forks.

Ltlabner
07-14-2006, 10:18 AM
So we got two bullpen arms for AK. - Deals with the now and future.
Two prospests + 1 stopgap at SS for Lopez - Deals with the future (mostly)
Wager was a toss in. - Addition by subtraction


Just another way of looking at it, I suppose. Like I said, only time will tell.

M2
07-14-2006, 10:19 AM
Last year's in-season deals for ML relief pitching:

1) Matt Kata for Tim Worrell
2) Roman Colon and Zach Minor for Farnsworth
3) Polanco for Ugie Urbina and Ramon Martinez
4) Yormin Bazardo and Mike Flannery for Ron Villone

Those are just a few examples. I do not see anything on here that would even come close to comparing with Kearns and Lopez. And you can say that it is a different market, but then Wayne should have stood pat, IMO. He must have really disliked Kearns and Lopez.

If this is what it cost for Maj and Bray, then maybe he should have went down a notch. Just my opinion.

That really puts this deal into perspective. What Krivsky just did is sort of like spending $100 on a hot dog.

Jpup
07-14-2006, 10:25 AM
So we got two bullpen arms for AK. - Deals with the now and future.
Two prospests + 1 stopgap at SS for Lopez - Deals with the future (mostly)
Wager was a toss in. - Addition by subtraction


Just another way of looking at it, I suppose. Like I said, only time will tell.

I would like to say that Brendan Harris is not a "prospect". A "suspect" would be more valid.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 10:26 AM
I knew I had a reason to be very suspicious of Krivsky. If the other moves were circumstantial evidence, then this is a three-person eyewitness account of seeing him leave the crime scene at the time of the murder.

Too bad the corpse belongs to the Reds.

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 10:29 AM
That really puts this deal into perspective. What Krivsky just did is sort of like spending $100 on a hot dog.
That shows how hungry Kriv is/was. Which makes me wonder why he was so panic stricken to get this BP fixed in one fell swoop. He obviously wants to win now, but at this price?

Jpup
07-14-2006, 10:29 AM
I knew I had a reason to be very suspicious of Krivsky. If the other moves were circumstantial evidence, then this is a three-person eyewitness account of seeing him leave the crime scene at the time of the murder.

Too bad the corpse belongs to the Reds.

what should he have done? what was he going to use to bring in some bullpen help? what ideas do you have?

flyer85
07-14-2006, 10:30 AM
Too bad the corpse belongs to the Reds.and Royce Clayton is thy name. The fact that the Reds see him as any kind of a useful player tells me all I need to know. His useful skills disappeared a long time ago. Now he is a slightly below average SS defensively who can't hit a lick. He will quickly become an anvil for a team trying to keep their head above water.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 10:31 AM
what should he have done? what was he going to use to bring in some bullpen help? what ideas do you have?

Trade Kearns for Majewski or Bray, straight up. No sense in deep sixing two big trading chips for that kind of return.

cincinnati chili
07-14-2006, 10:35 AM
That really puts this deal into perspective. What Krivsky just did is sort of like spending $100 on a hot dog.

Except Kearns and Lopez have millions of dollars of value above replacement level and above average major league level.

So I prefer the analogy of spending several million dollars to purchase and renovate a mansion, and then selling it for several hundred thousand dollars, so you could purchase an upscale tract home in the suburbs with better wiring.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 10:38 AM
Except Kearns and Lopez have millions of dollars of value above replacement level and above average major league level.

So I prefer the analogy of spending several million dollars to purchase and renovate a mansion, and then selling it for several hundred thousand dollars, so you could purchase an upscale tract home in the suburbs with better wiring.

Yeah, but kosher dogs kick arse.

Jpup
07-14-2006, 10:38 AM
Trade Kearns for Majewski or Bray, straight up. No sense in deep sixing two big trading chips for that kind of return.

fair enough.

If you look at it this way, I think the deal makes more sense.

Reds Trade Austin Kearns for Gary Majewski and Brendan Harris
Reds Trade Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and Darryl Thompson

I don't know if that makes it any better, but it makes a little more sense to me.

cincinnati chili
07-14-2006, 10:39 AM
In any trade, nine times out of ten, you want to get the best player in the deal, and in Bray, we did that.

Completely disagree. Even if Austin Kearns never fulfills his potential, he is the best player in this deal.

He's the best player right now, he has the most value right now, and he has the brightest future, and he has an outside shot at being outstanding if he gets his head screwed on straight.

Felipe Lopez is second on all of the above.

Remember these guys are both under 26, IIRC.

I don't even particularly like Kearns

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 10:41 AM
He's the best player right now, he has the most value right now, and he has the brightest future, and he has an outside shot at being outstanding if he gets his head screwed on straight.


Kearns is 26, and he'll never be outstanding.

But the salient part of your post is that he has the most value right now.

M2
07-14-2006, 10:44 AM
Trade Kearns for Majewski or Bray, straight up. No sense in deep sixing two big trading chips for that kind of return.

I was thinking pretty much the same thing. Heck, I'll even boil it down a little more. I can see trading Kearns or Lopez if you LOVE Bray's upside, but Majewski strikes me as the second coming of Scott Strickland.

Jpup
07-14-2006, 10:45 AM
I was thinking pretty much the same thing. Heck, I'll even boil it down a little more. I can see trading Kearns or Lopez if you LOVE Bray's upside, but Majewski strikes me as the second coming of Scott Strickland.

have you ever watched the guy pitch? I always thought he was pretty good.

M2
07-14-2006, 10:52 AM
have you ever watched the guy pitch? I always thought he was pretty good.

Yep and I've never thought he was all that good. He's got faux power, kind of like Jason Standridge. He can tickle a radar gun, but he can't make people miss. Add his control issues and you're looking at a pretty forgettable pitcher.

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 11:28 AM
I'll give Wayne credit--he's killing the team with a bullet to the brain, not the DanO way, slowly crushed under an accumulation of rocks.

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 11:38 AM
Could you imagine if Wayne was offered a much better reliever or closer? What if the Twins called and offered Nathan? What would that deal have looked like? Dunn, Bailey, Bruce, Wood, lifetime season tickets to the Reds, 100 cases of Skyline Chili, 500 racks of Mont Inn ribs and partial ownership of the team?

Moosie52
07-14-2006, 11:44 AM
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

This organization is a JOKE!

And the team was so good with Kearns and Lopez?

flyer85
07-14-2006, 11:47 AM
Could you imagine if Wayne was offered a much better reliever or closer? It's only a matter of time until the Dunn for Colon trade goes down. :evil:

Falls City Beer
07-14-2006, 11:48 AM
And the team was so good with Kearns and Lopez?

This is a fair point. I couldn't care less what Kearns and Lopez could give to this club because frankly it wasn't very much to begin with--and is eminently replaceable.

However, their perceived value should have netted the Reds a whole lot more.

M2
07-14-2006, 11:49 AM
Could you imagine if Wayne was offered a much better reliever or closer? What if the Twins called and offered Nathan? What would that deal have looked like? Dunn, Bailey, Bruce, Wood, lifetime season tickets to the Reds, 100 cases of Skyline Chili, 500 racks of Mont Inn ribs and partial ownership of the team?

The curious thing is Krivsky was part of getting Nathan, Liriano and Bonser for a relatively modest return (Pierzynski). Now he's paying through the nose for A LOT less.

westofyou
07-14-2006, 11:54 AM
Now he's paying through the nose for A LOT less.

But he has a different boss with a different agenda breathing down his back too.

ochre
07-14-2006, 12:02 PM
What happens if Harris becomes Phillips v2.0?
You mean Phillips v3.0.

v2.0 was DFAd by the indians.

RedFanAlways1966
07-14-2006, 12:04 PM
I like the trade.

Hate to lose Kearns & Lopez. I always feel like I have lost an extended family member when these things happen. But you gotta give to get. The REDS are strong offensively. The REDS are very weak defensively and in the bullpen. I like having a SS who is more dependable in the field than at the plate.... call me old-school, I guess. Lopez was shaky in the field. Austin will be missed, but I am okay with getting mound-help for his type of player. Denorfia was there waiting to take over Austin's spot and I am okay with that.

Life goes on. Hopefully this will help. If not, then the REDS are no worse than where they have been in recent years IMO. Here's to "change is good".

:)

registerthis
07-14-2006, 12:05 PM
You skewered the main problem, Krivsky just burned his major league trading chips to acquire questionable bullpen help.

This sums up this trade perfectly.

What a squandering of talent this was.

M2
07-14-2006, 12:11 PM
But he has a different boss with a different agenda breathing down his back too.

That's not a justification for burning a huge portion of your trade value on questionable relief help.

I keep getting back to this deal having to pay off in 2006. Krivsky's placed a huge gamble that the team truly is just two relievers away. If it doesn't pay off, the subsequent talent fallout situation this winter is going to be painful.

Just one man's opinion, but I don't think Kearns and Lopez brought in anywhere near enough pitching to keep Dunn in a Reds uni through 2008.

BoydsOfSummer
07-14-2006, 12:14 PM
1) The Reds traded RF Austin Kearns, SS Felipe Lopez and minor league P Ryan Wagner to the Nationals for Ps Gary Majewski and Bill Bray, SS Royce Clayton, INF Brendan Harris and minor league P Daryl Thompson.

KEARNS
YEAR AGE RCAA OBA SLG OPS OWP RC/G AVG HR RBI SB G TEAM
2004 24 -4 .321 .419 .740 .443 4.30 .230 9 32 2 64 Reds
2005 25 -2 .333 .452 .785 .483 5.19 .240 18 67 0 112 Reds
2006 26 2 .351 .492 .843 .521 5.63 .274 16 50 7 87 Reds
CAR 23 .358 .468 .826 .543 5.80 .267 71 263 20 452
LG AVG 0 .340 .431 .771 .500 5.14 .269 51 209 27
POS AVG 23 .351 .458 .808 .541 5.66 .271 63 236 28

LOPEZ
YEAR AGE RCAA OBA SLG OPS OWP RC/G AVG HR RBI SB G TEAM
2004 24 -2 .314 .405 .719 .475 4.61 .242 7 31 1 79 Reds
2005 25 13 .352 .486 .838 .563 6.19 .291 23 85 15 148 Reds
2006 26 -1 .355 .394 .749 .489 5.26 .268 9 30 23 85 Reds
CAR -18 .329 .416 .744 .467 4.85 .259 54 216 56 505
LG AVG 0 .338 .431 .770 .500 5.12 .268 59 246 31
POS AVG -37 .322 .398 .720 .433 4.45 .266 39 199 47

WAGNER
YEAR AGE RSAA ERA G GS IP SO SO/9 BR/9 W L SV NW NL TEAM
2003 20 6 1.66 17 0 21.2 25 10.38 10.38 2 0 0 2 0 Reds
2004 21 -4 4.70 49 0 51.2 37 6.45 15.33 3 2 0 2 3 Reds
2005 22 -8 6.11 42 0 45.2 39 7.69 15.18 3 2 0 2 3 Reds
CAREER -6 4.69 108 0 119 101 7.64 14.37 8 4 0 6 6
LG AVG 0 4.28 119 88 6.66 12.80 7 7

MAJEWSKI
YEAR AGE RSAA ERA G GS IP SO SO/9 BR/9 W L SV NW NL TEAM
2004 24 1 3.86 16 0 21 12 5.14 15.00 0 1 1 1 0 Expos
2005 25 10 2.93 79 0 86 50 5.23 12.98 4 4 1 5 3 Nationals
2006 26 10 3.58 46 0 55.1 34 5.53 12.20 3 2 0 3 2 Nationals
CAREER 21 3.27 141 0 162.1 96 5.32 12.97 7 7 2 9 5
LG AVG 0 4.36 162.1 119 6.60 12.91 9 9

BRAY
YEAR AGE RSAA ERA G GS IP SO SO/9 BR/9 W L SV NW NL TEAM
2006 3 3.91 19 0 23 16 6.26 13.30 1 1 0 1 1 Nationals
CAREER 3 3.91 19 0 23 16 6.26 13.30 1 1 0 1 1
LG AVG 0 4.57 23 17 6.58 13.18 1 1

CLAYTON
YEAR AGE RCAA OBA SLG OPS OWP RC/G AVG HR RBI SB G TEAM
2004 34 -31 .338 .397 .735 .348 4.48 .279 8 54 10 146 Rockies
2005 35 -25 .320 .351 .670 .336 3.64 .270 2 44 13 143 Diamondbacks
2006 36 -22 .315 .348 .663 .285 3.65 .269 0 27 8 87 Nationals
CAR -310 .313 .369 .682 .349 3.75 .259 107 698 223 1981
LG AVG 0 .340 .427 .766 .500 5.10 .270 224 972 147
POS AVG -156 .326 .386 .712 .425 4.38 .266 133 759 173

Clayton ranks 5th on the all time list for worst career RCAA--

1 Ski Melillo -355
2 Tommy Thevenow -351
3 Neifi Perez -340
4 Bill Bergen -312
5 Royce Clayton -310
6 Tim Foli -309
7 Larry Bowa -307
8 Alfredo Griffin -306
T9 Don Kessinger -305
T9 Ozzie Guillen -305

HARRIS
YEAR AGE RCAA OBA SLG OPS OWP RC/G AVG HR RBI SB G TEAM
2004 23 -5 .222 .271 .493 .178 2.20 .169 1 3 0 23 Cubs/Expos
2005 24 0 .400 .778 1.178 .353 3.38 .333 1 3 0 4 Nationals
2006 25 -3 .333 .313 .646 .243 3.24 .250 0 2 0 17 Nationals
CAR -8 .275 .330 .605 .214 2.63 .210 2 8 0 44
LG AVG 0 .341 .437 .778 .500 5.24 .270 4 14 2
POS AVG -1 .337 .413 .749 .465 4.88 .274 3 12 3

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 12:16 PM
This sums up this trade perfectly.

What a squandering of talent this was.

Krivsky may not be as outright incompetent as O'Brien, but arguably this trade was a worse move than any single thing O'Brien ever did (with the arguable exception of the Milton signing).

Cedric
07-14-2006, 12:16 PM
This is a fair point. I couldn't care less what Kearns and Lopez could give to this club because frankly it wasn't very much to begin with--and is eminently replaceable.

However, their perceived value should have netted the Reds a whole lot more.

The percieved value was always ridicilous on this site IMO.

We have a injury proned, bad attitude, bad work ethic hyped OF and a SS with one good offensive year and the worst defense I've ever seen at that position.

I don't like the trade because I really dislike Majewski. That said I think Lopez and Kearns didn't have this insane value that some here did.

Corner outfielders and aren't that hard to find. And Lopez shouldn't even be near SS at this level anytime soon.

westofyou
07-14-2006, 12:16 PM
That's not a justification for burning a huge portion of your trade value on questionable relief help.No, but it is a variable that makes the Nathan deal different (plus that was off season to a team that devalues youth so that factors in)


Just one man's opinion, but I don't think Kearns and Lopez brought in anywhere near enough pitching to keep Dunn in a Reds uni through 2008.

If Dunn keeps making errors in the OF that will probably factor in the future plans too.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:17 PM
That's not a justification for burning a huge portion of your trade value on questionable relief help.This is exactly the kind of trade that happens when you have no idea about sabermetrics. WK is simply hoping that he got some "pitching" without hurting the team too badly but he really doesn't have any data that gives an objective answer to the question.

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 12:18 PM
FeLo I personally would have held back but Castro is outplaying him so why not move him at this point?

Oh, come on TC. Castro is one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball. He's going to regress to the mean, and it is going to be a blood stained out-fest. The gulf between Castro and Lopez as hitters isn't even a gulf, it's an ocean.

At the end of the day, I can't see any possible way that a single ML average middle reliever is worth two above average position players. Krivsky got rooked, and its a testament to how bad this organization is that none of them seem to realize it.

RedsBaron
07-14-2006, 12:21 PM
This is exactly the kind of trade that happens when you have no idea about sabermetrics. WK is simply hoping that he got some "pitching" without hurting the team too badly but he really doesn't have any data that gives an objective answer to the question.
While the rest of the baseball world uses a computer, the Reds still rely on an abacus.

Ltlabner
07-14-2006, 12:26 PM
That shows how hungry Kriv is/was. Which makes me wonder why he was so panic stricken to get this BP fixed in one fell swoop. He obviously wants to win now, but at this price?

Which of course assumes there will be a raft of bullpen help available for trade in the comming weeks. It also assumes that no other teams will be looking for bullpen help (driving the price up even further). It also assumes that by waithing we'd get something better. Seems to me that is how we ended up with Milton....by waiting for the mystical "better deal" that never was.


However, their perceived value should have netted the Reds a whole lot more

Who's perception of their value? Yours or another MLB GM who knows the players strengths and weaknesses? Becuase as Reds fans our "perception" of a players value is sooooooo objective and rational. No fans evvvveeeerrr overestimate the value of their players.


Oh, come on TC. Castro is one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball. He's going to regress to the mean, and it is going to be a blood stained out-fest. The gulf between Castro and Lopez as hitters isn't even a gulf, it's an ocean.

But Lopez's year last year couldn't have been a one time thing, and he'll "regress to the mean" for the rest of his carear? That cuts both ways.

westofyou
07-14-2006, 12:26 PM
This is exactly the kind of trade that happens when you have no idea about sabermetrics. WK is simply hoping that he got some "pitching" without hurting the team too badly but he really doesn't have any data that gives an objective answer to the question.
You think the Reds have no in house stats work going on?

I beg to differ, they might use it diffrently then we'd like but it's there.

princeton
07-14-2006, 12:28 PM
Reds must really like Bill Bray.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 12:28 PM
Oh, come on TC. Castro is one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball. He's going to regress to the mean, and it is going to be a blood stained out-fest. The gulf between Castro and Lopez as hitters isn't even a gulf, it's an ocean.

maybe they're hoping that Castro keeps his hot streak going for a couple more weeks, and then they can package him and Clayton together in a sort of Light Hitting Shortstop Out-O-Rama type of deal.

Then again, probably not.

vaticanplum
07-14-2006, 12:28 PM
The kids over at Deadspin weigh in...

http://www.deadspin.com/sports/baseball/reds-fans-not-handling-kearns-trade-well-187347.php

You get a good mix of perspective and ignorance in the comments. And some of them are funny.

westofyou
07-14-2006, 12:31 PM
Reds must really like Bill Bray.
I saw Krivsky and him in between classes and Wayne had his hand in Bill's back pocket as they walked down the hall.

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 12:31 PM
Then again, probably not.

There's only one GM in baseball dumb enough to trade for Juan Castro.

EDIT: Bowden traded for him in 2000. So there are two GMs in baseball dumb enough to trade for Castro; we've clearly got the dumber one.

ochre
07-14-2006, 12:35 PM
But Lopez's year last year couldn't have been a one time thing, and he'll "regress to the mean" for the rest of his carear? That cuts both ways.
you mean the 850ish OPS he posted in AAA as a 21-22 year old. Yep, here's to hoping he regresses to that.

ochre
07-14-2006, 12:36 PM
Reds must really like Bill Bray.
I hope it's that instead of the "Reds must really not have liked Kearns/Lopez".

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:37 PM
Which of course assumes there will be a raft of bullpen help available for trade in the comming weeks. And you are assuming that Majewski and Bray will be a big help. They both come from one of the friendliest pitching environments in all of baseball. What did the Reds get, a rookie LH reliever who may or may not be ready to contribute at the major league level. Bray has seen a huge drop in his K rate in his major league stint, a very troubling sign. Majewski is even more iffy. The only metric that looks good for him is HR rate. Is a lot of that success due to RFK? I bet the Reds don't know the answer to that question. Majewski has been BABIP lucky with a high BB rate, that means that if the HR goes up much he will have fallen from the ledge of effectiveness that he currently sits on.

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 12:37 PM
But Lopez's year last year couldn't have been a one time thing, and he'll "regress to the mean" for the rest of his carear? That cuts both ways.

Using only seasons where they played at least 81 games:

Castro's career high OBP is .290, and his career high SLG is .388.

Lopez's career low OPB is .289, and his career low SLG is .387. He "achieved" both at age 22.

So yeah, Castro's career year might be equivalent to Felipe's worst possible outcome after being rushed to the big leagues and playing sporadically.

Factor in Castro's rapidly declining range and there is simply no comparison between the two. And we just traded Lopez for Royce freaking Clayton. Hilarious. Tell me another one, WayneO.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:38 PM
Reds must really like Bill Bray.my comment is they must know something about Bray that we don't.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:39 PM
You think the Reds have no in house stats work going on?

I beg to differ, they might use it diffrently then we'd like but it's there.or they don't use it all.

Ltlabner
07-14-2006, 12:39 PM
And you are assuming that Majewski and Bray will be a big help.

And you are assuming that AK stays healthy and continues to improve. Along with assuming Lopez can get it together and have another all star year.

Ltlabner
07-14-2006, 12:41 PM
Lopez's career low OPB is .289, and his career low SLG is .387. He "achieved" both at age 22.


And it's written in stone that he will continue to improve apon his one good year where?

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 12:42 PM
And you are assuming that AK stays healthy and continues to improve. Along with assuming Lopez can get it together and have another all star year.

I'd say that outcome is a lot more likely than the acquisition of Gary Majewski and Bill Bray single-handedly fixing the Reds bullpen. Majewski is a league-average middle reliever, he's not Goose Gossage.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 12:42 PM
And it's written in stone that he will continue to improve apon his one good year where?

Let's put it this way:

I like the odds of Kearns and Lopez continuing to improve and be productive than I do Majewski and Bray. Neither is written in stone, no. But one is certainly more likely than the other.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:42 PM
And you are assuming that AK stays healthy and continues to improve. Along with assuming Lopez can get it together and have another all star year.they are a help now at their current production rate, they don't have to improve.

MWM
07-14-2006, 12:42 PM
Ah, the old it has to be written in stone. Always comes up in these discussions.

Ltlabner
07-14-2006, 12:43 PM
The only metric that looks good for him is HR rate. Is a lot of that success due to RFK? I bet the Reds don't know the answer to that question.

So the change from RFK to GABP will hurt Magic and Bray but will have no effect what-so-ever on AK and Lopez? So AK, who is K prone has to be a more consistant hitter and Lopez who is struggling at the plate has to suddenly get hot because neither can rely on the long ball to make their numbers look good.

Again, it cuts both ways.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:43 PM
Majewski is a league-average middle relieverwho may not even be that away from the friendly confines of RFK.

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 12:44 PM
And it's written in stone that he will continue to improve apon his one good year where?

Written in stone? Nowhere.

Proven to a high degree of certainty by performance-based analysis of a century's worth of data by people a lot smarter than either of us? Yes.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:47 PM
So the change from RFK to GABP will hurt Magic and Bray but will have no effect what-so-ever on AK and Lopez? So AK, who is K prone has to be a more consistant hitter and Lopez who is struggling at the plate has to suddenly get hot because neither can rely on the long ball to make their numbers look good.

Again, it cuts both ways.It does but it may mean the Reds traded away two starter players for a pair of releivers who are only marginally better than what they've got. AK will lose in the translation to RFK, it is possible that Lopez may not because not much of his offensive value is tied to HRs(hence the increase in other hits will offset the drop in HRs. As an example PECOTA projected a higher VORP for Casey with PNC as his home park instead of GABP).

reds44
07-14-2006, 12:52 PM
Any word on who we got rid of to make room for the 3 new guys?

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 12:55 PM
I'll give Wayne credit--he's killing the team with a bullet to the brain, not the DanO way, slowly crushed under an accumulation of rocks.

:laugh: After my initial stun of this trade, I couldn't wait to see Fall's, Chilli's and M2's take on the deal. You didn't disappoint me.

I'm willing to let Wayne make one big goof like this, but it better not become a habit.

SteelSD
07-14-2006, 12:57 PM
And you are assuming that AK stays healthy and continues to improve. Along with assuming Lopez can get it together and have another all star year.

And both are completely reasonable assumptions. Both players are just about to enter their age-prime years. Both players have a history of solid plate discipline and power output.

The Reds just traded two solid MLB performers who've yet to enter the years in which they project peak performance for an BABIP-lucky, ERA-lucky middle reliever (Majewski), another reliever who projects awful HR rates (Bray), an infielder who demonstrates below-average plate discipline and range (Harris), a Tony Womack clone, and an oft-injured A-Ball pitcher who doesn't project.

The Reds just traded a boatload of talent for marginal relief help and have added nothing to the team defensively while they take a worse offensive team to the field every day. They've most likely lost tens of millions of dollars in value while doing this and project to see fewer Wins.

That's the reality of this trade. And if you want a guarantee, you're not going to get it because there are no guarantees as to what the future holds. Because of that we let probability guide us. You're hoping for the improbable.

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 01:02 PM
There's only one GM in baseball dumb enough to trade for Juan Castro.

EDIT: Bowden traded for him in 2000. So there are two GMs in baseball dumb enough to trade for Castro; we've clearly got the dumber one.

Well, in Bowden's defense, he gave up nothing for Castro when Castro was a AAA journeyman who's career was in danger of ending. At the time, the Reds had no backup SS, and Castro was a cheap one. When Bowden picked up Castro, it made sense.

Bowden didn't trade for Castro as a starter to replace a SS that hit 23 HR and around 90RBI the year before.

pedro
07-14-2006, 01:06 PM
Even if the Reds had kept Lopez they'd have to move him to 2B or 3B and frankly I just don't know if he'd be a good second baseman either. Coupled with the fact that I think that last years power was somewhat of an aberation and he's going to be making 6-7 million next year I just can't get too excited about losing him.

Kearns is the player that I figure to have the best career but that's no lock either.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 01:07 PM
Well, now that they've gone and done this trade, they've got an entirely new problem -- keeping the engine that drives this team (offense) from sputtering.

Simply put, they've gotta somehow keep run production up -- everyone with half a brain knows you're not going to get 3-run shots out of Juan Castro more than once a fortnight. Kearns and Lopez were both well above replacement level (both in the double digits for VORP on the year), and there is going to be a definite production drop-off from the SS position -- because there is simply no way that Clayton and Castro can maintain any offensive firepower in the long haul (or the short haul). I think Denorfia is going to be OK -- if I had to project him forward, I'd guess we can probably expect about a .775-.825 OPS out of him. Any stolen bases he picks up will be gravy. That's not Kearns-level production, but it'll be passable. The extra burden is going to fall to Griffey and Dunn to keep pace, and I think the two of them can still improve on the numbers they're posting thus far.

In the long term -- I think run production will be adquate for this squad, but you can say goodbye the league-leading offense we've enjoed around here . I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the FA market for a 2nd baseman or a corner outfielder, depending on how Harris looks at Louisville for the remainder of the year; though I imagine Harris might be on the big league squad sooner rather than later. I see a lot of Adam Kennedy in him, but I've been wrong before.

Speaking of minor league bats, it'd be pretty helpful if they could get some look at Joey Votto before the season ends, because his bat could REALLY help alleviate production concerns in 2007 if they can count on him to hit .300 with gap power from the 1st base bag. If he's not going to get ready, then it really is going to put the pressure on the team to either shift Dunn to 1B next year and go get a LF or hit the FA market for a big-stick firstbaseman.

Another reason not to like this deal -- it sends the Reds back to the speculative market of finding starting talent in the FA market next season.

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 01:08 PM
Check out these splits on Bray (how batters fare vs him)


Home: BA: 245 OBP: 306 SLG: 386
Away: BA: 323 OBP: 405 SLG: 452 .. gives up an OPS of 857 on the road.

Now these are limited samples (57 AB at home, 31 away), but it's a bit scary.

REDREAD
07-14-2006, 01:09 PM
In contrast, Majewski is fairly consistent.

Gives up a 662 OPS at home, and a 694 OPS away

registerthis
07-14-2006, 01:09 PM
Another reason not to like this deal -- it sends the Reds back to the speculative market of finding starting talent in the FA market next season.

...for positions that most fans believed they had shorn up.

Spitball
07-14-2006, 01:15 PM
I want Jim Bowden back.

But, you know what? He has Ramon Ortiz as his number one starter (think about that) and he goes out and trades pitching for a five tool outfielder and a no range shortstop who suffers away from GAP and versus lefties.

I don't really mean this to rip Bowden, but I like Krivsky's approach to fixing a flaw. He traded away replaeable parts to acquire help for today and for the future. He actually took action and addressed a need (unlike O'Brien) and there wasn't a five tool outfielder coming to town (like Bowden).

reds44
07-14-2006, 01:15 PM
Another reason not to like this deal -- it sends the Reds back to the speculative market of finding starting talent in the FA market next season.
Really?

If Deno pans out you have no need for a starting rightfielder. Phillips is going to go to SS, so you are going to need a starting 2nd baseman.

vaticanplum
07-14-2006, 01:22 PM
For those of you who are dissapointed in the lack of anger, I just want to clarify that, speaking for myself, trying to find the good and the reason in this does NOT mean that I think it is a good trade. By virtue of the nature of the word "trade" (assuming an EVEN trade), it is a miserable failure. We did not get anything worth what we gave up in the way of sheer value.

But that doesn't mean it can't help the team, or that there may not be trickle-down good effects as time goes on. I am NOT making excuses for Krivsky. I think it is a bad deal in the definition of the word. But it's done, and I'm happy that we have bullpen help, and I want to look forward to see how this will help the team, and I think that what we gave up for it, while too much by value definition, does not hurt us horribly in terms of the actual baseball being played on the field.

It's a blurry distinction, but it's there.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 01:23 PM
But, you know what? He has Ramon Ortiz as his number one starter (think about that) and he goes out and trades pitching for a five tool outfielder and a no range shortstop who suffers away from GAP and versus lefties.

And he hardly gave anything up to get it.

I don't want Bowden back, but i'd take this deal any day of the week. He's have been an idiot not to.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 01:24 PM
If Deno pans out you have no need for a starting rightfielder.

That's a very big if.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 01:24 PM
Really?

If Deno pans out you have no need for a starting rightfielder. Phillips is going to go to SS, so you are going to need a starting 2nd baseman.

People on this thread have hopped up and down about Lopez having a career year last year and then regressing to this norm he is at now -- what makes you think Brandon Phillips isn't doing the same this year? Sure, I'd love it if he turned out to be a great defense, .300 hitting MI, but it's just as likely he'll get less hit-lucky next season are drop down to the .260-.270 area with a corresponding drop in OBP because he just doesn't walk a ton.

His defense would be better than Lopez -- but you're already banking on him doing what Lopez couldn't: have continued success for a multiple of years, not months.

Cedric
07-14-2006, 01:25 PM
That's a very big if.

At least he seemingly isn't going to attend every spring training twenty five pounds overweight.

I don't like the execution of this trade in the least, but I can't help but be happy that Kearns is gone.

If you got the history you can be lazy and get away with it. But with his injury history he was nothing short of irresponsible.

Marc D
07-14-2006, 01:29 PM
At least he seemingly isn't going to attend every spring training twenty five pounds overweight.

I don't like the execution of this trade in the least, but I can't help but be happy that Kearns is gone.

If you got the history you can be lazy and get away with it. But with his injury history he was nothing short of irresponsible.

I think the universal feeling is that it was ok to trade AK and FeLo but most are dissapointed in what we got back. I know thats the most PC, G rated, clean way I can sum up my opinion of the trade.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 01:30 PM
People on this thread have hopped up and down about Lopez having a career year last year and then regressing to this norm he is at now -- what makes you think Brandon Phillips isn't doing the same this year? Sure, or David Ross, or Hatty and with the addition of Clayton, well. This offense is likely to hit with a resounding thud in the 2nd half. I sure hope the pitching and defense are up to the task.

redsrule2500
07-14-2006, 01:36 PM
If Clayton were not the starting SS, this is a smart, forward-looking trade, imo.

exactly. Brandon Phillips should have been the idea here!!!!! :bang:

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 01:41 PM
The percieved value was always ridicilous on this site IMO.

We have a injury proned, bad attitude, bad work ethic hyped OF and a SS with one good offensive year and the worst defense I've ever seen at that position.

I don't like the trade because I really dislike Majewski. That said I think Lopez and Kearns didn't have this insane value that some here did.

Corner outfielders and aren't that hard to find. And Lopez shouldn't even be near SS at this level anytime soon.
I think their perceived value might be high, but their actual value (judged by this trade) was obscenely low. When Griffey goes down, this offense could be KC-like. Think about it. One of these guys could have went, but both of them is suicide.

The fact of them christening Clayton as the starter immediately is scary. It almost leads me to believe that he was a key to this deal. A perfect partner on the left side for RA. Gritty veteran. They don't even want to TRY and see what BP can do there with Freel at 2nd? Clayton is not an automatic starter on most ballclubs (and AAA teams), but they are going to be comfortable with him in the lineup everyday? The quotes look like he is here to stay for the rest of the season and they are positively giddy about it. Personally I would rather have Castro see more time than Royce.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 01:45 PM
Personally I would rather have Castro see more time than Royce.I will put in a vote for rather seeing Olmedo.

RedFanAlways1966
07-14-2006, 02:06 PM
Didn't our friendly AL neighbor in the northern part of OH teach us anything about O being the most important thing back in the 1990's? How many WS rings do those guys sport from those great offensive teams from the 1990's? Yep, the playoffs would be nice and they made it there many times. No doubt about it. But that does not hardly seem possible with the REDS team as it was.

Does having the 2nd worst fielding SS in the NL matter? Does his hitting abilities (are they really that impressive?) outweigh the fact that he is the 2nd worst fielding SS in the NL?

What kind of BP help should Wayne have gotten for these guys (AK & Felipe)? Where are the teams that would have done this deal to help a big-time hole in this team and what relievers should have been obtained? Do you keep bringing in the same pitchers late in the game to keep the likes of AK and FeLo? Do you keep hoping a Burns, Shackelford or Standrige type will somehow find the ability to be a decent ML bullpen guy?

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 02:10 PM
What kind of BP help should Wayne have gotten for these guys (AK & Felipe)? Where are the teams that would have done this deal to help a big-time hole in this team and what relievers should have been obtained?

If you can't get a return consistent with the amount you are giving up, you don't make the trade. Make the Nats come back on July 31st with a better offer. Solicit offers from other Major League clubs (there's no evidence anywhere this package was shopped to anyone but Washington). Wait until the offseason.

Even if the Reds this year luck into the Wild Card, this abysmal trade has tied their hands in the offseason. Again, all I'm asking for is one impact arm. Instead, we got an average middle reliever and a lot of question marks. Oh, and a shortstop with rapidly declining defensive skills who can't hit. Lovely.

Marc D
07-14-2006, 02:13 PM
How bad this offense could be if Jr or Dunn goes down pales to how bad the pitching will be if Arroyo or Harang go down.

It seems the power of positive thought which leads many to think this team a contender, has the dual effect of blinding the faithful to just how thin a line this team has between merely mediocre and downright abysmal.

I'm not 2nd guessing, I'm first guessing. I have said all along this team is too far away from being legit to fix it mid season and to avoid win now panic trades exactly like this one. Stand pat for just another 2 weeks, be sellers and stock up on the young players no one really wanted to part with but did anyway in a fit of pennant fever. Then for the first time in ages we have a reason for hope as soon as 2007.

Stocking the farm system and clearing dead payroll on the big club are the two principles Kriv should have stayed focused on. Insted we are still locked into the death sprial of building for the future as we try to win now.

I've tried for about 24 hours now to like this trade and I just can't do it.

edabbs44
07-14-2006, 02:15 PM
Didn't our friendly AL neighbor in the northern part of OH teach us anything about O being the most important thing back in the 1990's? How many WS rings do those guys sport from those great offensive teams from the 1990's? Yep, the playoffs would be nice and they made it there many times. No doubt about it. But that does not hardly seem possible with the REDS team as it was.

Does having the 2nd worst fielding SS in the NL matter? Does his hitting abilities (are they really that impressive?) outweigh the fact that he is the 2nd worst fielding SS in the NL?

What kind of BP help should Wayne have gotten for these guys (AK & Felipe)? Where are the teams that would have done this deal to help a big-time hole in this team and what relievers should have been obtained? Do you keep bringing in the same pitchers late in the game to keep the likes of AK and FeLo? Do you keep hoping a Burns, Shackelford or Standrige type will somehow find the ability to be a decent ML bullpen guy?
For both AK and FeLo, they should have gotten more. That's it. For these guys, I would have been fine with FeLo and a minor leaguer for Bray and Maj. I just cannot see both of these guys netting us 2 middle relievers. If WK had gotten one of their top prospects with these guys, then I would feel better. If he had gotten a starter, I would feel better. If he had gotten a real SS, I would feel better.

And for all of the talk surrounding how this was a defensive upgrade, doesn't anyone else think AK was, by FAR, the best defensive OF on the team? I'm not sure what SuperDeno brings to the defense (except robbing HRs in a single bound) but AK was certainly a very good RFer. And Royce Clayton better be Ozzie Smith to make up for his hitting inadequacies.

Kc61
07-14-2006, 03:06 PM
Media is blasting Krivsky for this trade. I still think that he decided to dump Lopez and Kearns for the best pitching package available. I just don't believe WK thought that these guys are winning players.

In retrospect, we probably should have figured Kearns was going by the approach to Deno. Keeping him in AAA for everyday play rather than using him as a Reds sub; shows that WK always viewed Deno as more than a bench guy and wanted him ready to replace AK.

My big problem with the trade is the lack of any real replacement for Lopez. Personally, I would be happy to see Olmedo get a shot, at least sharing the position. Not sure he is starter material, but he has done very well at AAA and seems to have the tools except power. Some folks knock his defense. He isn't a high error guy, like Felipe, but I can't comment on his range. Have always thought he is underrated as a prospect.

The other thing the media is missing is that the two relievers are both young guys. If you add Coffey and Belisle, you have four young middle relievers/set up guys who could add depth to the pitching staff for a number of years. Pitching depth is probably the hardest commodity in today's baseball -- you may have two or three good pitchers, but harder to have seven or eight.

The bullpen this year should now be Guardado, the two Nationals, Coffey, Mercker, Weathers, Belisle. If Merck and Stormy are healthy and throwing well -- and they are both doing a bit better now -- this is pretty good. I assume Standridge will be gone and perhaps Yan.

For this year, the big remaining problem is the fifth starter. Particularly with EZ only a rookie, Reds need one more solid vet starter, perhaps a rental. Or, they may go with Claussen if healthy. But the Joe Mays spot has to be improved. I would guess a catcher and some minor leaguers will be the bait if WK goes this route.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 03:11 PM
For this year, the big remaining problem is the fifth starter. Particularly with EZ only a rookie, Reds need one more solid vet starter, perhaps a rental. Or, they may go with Claussen if healthy. But the Joe Mays spot has to be improved. I would guess a catcher and some minor leaguers will be the bait if WK goes this route.

I'd argue that the lack of a #5 starter, and the dependance on Ramirez and Milton as #s 3 and 4, are a bigger problem for this team than the bullpen situation. I think it's practically unforgiveable that we traded Kearns and Lopez and didn't receive anything remotely close to starting pitching talent in return.

BrooklynRedz
07-14-2006, 03:13 PM
For this year, the big remaining problem is the fifth starter. Particularly with EZ only a rookie, Reds need one more solid vet starter, perhaps a rental. Or, they may go with Claussen if healthy. But the Joe Mays spot has to be improved. I would guess a catcher and some minor leaguers will be the bait if WK goes this route.

I think this trade should be a clear indication that something else is on the way to bring in another starter. You don't make this move and sit pat with an upgraded bullpen.

Kc61
07-14-2006, 03:15 PM
I think this trade should be a clear indication that something else is on the way to bring in another starter. You don't make this move and sit pat with an upgraded bullpen.

Probably right. I just hope that the Reds don't give up one of their top prospects in any such deal. For the first time in years, I see 4-6 real good prospects in the organization. You all know the names.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 03:29 PM
I think this trade should be a clear indication that something else is on the way to bring in another starter. You don't make this move and sit pat with an upgraded bullpen.

What else is left to trade? The team is fresh out of chips at the major league level, what with Freel now needed to platoon in right w/ Denorfia and Dunn's bat and Griffey's bat now needed to make up for lost production.

If it took Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez just to bring some average relief help in, it's going to take a LOT more than Jason LaRue on a bad money contract to get a starting pitcher of any note into Cincinnati.

Above and beyond that....Does anyone really want to start mortgaging the few remaining prospects in the lower half of the organization to win with this group?

RedFanAlways1966
07-14-2006, 03:31 PM
I'd argue that the lack of a #5 starter, and the dependance on Ramirez and Milton as #s 3 and 4, are a bigger problem for this team than the bullpen situation.

You mean Milton (9 of 14) & Ramirez (8 of 13)... combined they have 63.0% quality starts.

I wonder how many other teams have 3 & 4 starters with 63% quality starts combined? And more importantly how many teams with a payroll like the REDS have 3 & 4 starters with a QS rate of 63.0%?

No, I cannot agree with this statement. The BP is a MUCH BIGGER problem than the performances of Milton & Ramirez.

ochre
07-14-2006, 03:32 PM
What else is left to trade? The team is fresh out of chips at the major league level, what with Freel now needed to platoon in right w/ Denorfia and Dunn's bat and Griffey's bat now needed to make up for lost production.

If it took Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez just to bring some average relief help in, it's going to take a LOT more than Jason LaRue on a bad money contract to get a starting pitcher of any note into Cincinnati.

Above and beyond that....Does anyone really want to start mortgaging the few remaining prospects in the lower half of the organization to win with this group?
I think the pieces they picked up might net more in a deadline deal than those traded would have. That's all I got.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 03:33 PM
I think this trade should be a clear indication that something else is on the way to bring in another starter. You don't make this move and sit pat with an upgraded bullpen.

Short of completely gutting the offense by trading off a Dunn or Phillips, what valuable commodities do the Reds have left to trade? I suppose they could deplete the farm system and ship Bailey and Votto off for someone, but does anyone really want to see that happen? A combination of Aurilia/Hatteberg/Castro/Clayton/LaRue is only going to get you so much.

reds44
07-14-2006, 03:34 PM
Short of completely gutting the offense by trading off a Dunn or Phillips, what valuable commodities do the Reds have left to trade? I suppose they could deplete the farm system and ship Bailey and Votto off for someone, but does anyone really want to see that happen? A combination of Aurilia/Hatteberg/Castro/Clayton/LaRue is only going to get you so much.
The PTBNL has worked well of us this year. We got BP and Ross for them.

:D

registerthis
07-14-2006, 03:39 PM
You mean Milton (9 of 14) & Ramirez (8 of 13)... combined they have 63.0% quality starts.

I wonder how many other teams have 3 & 4 starters with 63% quality starts combined? And more importantly how many teams with a payroll like the REDS have 3 & 4 starters with a QS rate of 63.0%?

No, I cannot agree with this statement. The BP is a MUCH BIGGER problem than the performances of Milton & Ramirez.

For starters, you neglected to mention that this team has nothing resembling a #5 starter. So there's one-fifth of your rotation that's essentially non-existent. With Milton, he pitches decently one night, then blows up the next. I could live with Milton in the 5 spot if the other four starters were all dependable, but they aren't. Admittedly, Ramirez has pitched effectively thus far, but there's no guarantee that this will continue. This is his first go-around with significant major league time--he could be developing into a dependable #3 starter, or he could be coasting by on luck and anonymity.

Harang's been relatively consistent, and Arroyo's been solid--yet has been coming back to Earth recently.

Thus I stand by my statement--if Kearns and Lopez were to be traded, that deal *had* to involve some type of quality starting pitching in return. I'm simply not comfortable going the last 3 months of the season with a 3-5 rotation of Ramirez-Milton-Pitching Machine.

vaticanplum
07-14-2006, 03:39 PM
The PTBNL has worked well of us this year. We got BP and Ross for them.

You know, we have been committing our fair share of highway robbery this year...maybe the baseball gods caught up to us.

registerthis
07-14-2006, 03:39 PM
The PTBNL has worked well of us this year. We got BP and Ross for them.

:D

Well, then let's trade for a few more of them then.

wheels
07-14-2006, 04:58 PM
I haven't said anything about this because I am truly, 100% speechless.

If you know me, you know that speaks volumes about how I feel.

I guess I won't feel as bad about the bullpen, but is it really fixed?

Relief pitchers are a volitile breed, and giving up that much for them is organizational suicide.

Sure, a hot pen can help a club in a big way, but what about next year? Majewski's logged a hefty innings load in his short career..... just take a look at what the Pirates did with Salomon Torres. Worked him into the ground for two years, inked him to a big deal this year, and whaddaya know, he's struggling to keep his ERA under 5.

Relief pitchers are scary, man. Reeel scary.

That's my official opinion.

Gallen5862
07-14-2006, 05:46 PM
When do we get the Ptbnl from the Marlins for Cody Ross? Hopefully that player will help the farm system or be a valuable trading chip.

Krusty
07-14-2006, 05:54 PM
The curious thing is Krivsky was part of getting Nathan, Liriano and Bonser for a relatively modest return (Pierzynski). Now he's paying through the nose for A LOT less.

And at the time of that trade, no one knew how it would turn out.

Hey, if Bray turns out to be our closer down the road the next five to seven years, this deal will be in more of favor of the Reds.

And if the Reds make the playoffs this season, the trade will be a success.

Bottom line is they didn't mortgage the farm system to make a run this year.

Krusty
07-14-2006, 06:00 PM
And both are completely reasonable assumptions. Both players are just about to enter their age-prime years. Both players have a history of solid plate discipline and power output.

The Reds just traded two solid MLB performers who've yet to enter the years in which they project peak performance for an BABIP-lucky, ERA-lucky middle reliever (Majewski), another reliever who projects awful HR rates (Bray), an infielder who demonstrates below-average plate discipline and range (Harris), a Tony Womack clone, and an oft-injured A-Ball pitcher who doesn't project.

The Reds just traded a boatload of talent for marginal relief help and have added nothing to the team defensively while they take a worse offensive team to the field every day. They've most likely lost tens of millions of dollars in value while doing this and project to see fewer Wins.

That's the reality of this trade. And if you want a guarantee, you're not going to get it because there are no guarantees as to what the future holds. Because of that we let probability guide us. You're hoping for the improbable.

So, what you're telling me the Reds haven't improved their bullpen with the Guardado and this deals?

Krusty
07-14-2006, 06:06 PM
I think this trade should be a clear indication that something else is on the way to bring in another starter. You don't make this move and sit pat with an upgraded bullpen.

MLB radio today was speculating that too that the Reds could make another deal that would net them a fifth starter.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2006, 06:09 PM
So, what you're telling me the Reds haven't improved their bullpen with the Guardado and this deals?

As bad as it was, how could you not improve it? Just because they improved it, doesn't make the deal worth it. Especially for a .500 ballclub.

No trade would have been a better trade. You can pick up quality releivers in the offseason, sometimes for peanuts.

Just ask St. Louis with Josh Hancock.

Marc D
07-14-2006, 06:12 PM
MLB radio today was speculating that too that the Reds could make another deal that would net them a fifth starter.

If lopez and Kearns= 2 bullpen guys, I am at a loss as to whats left that could net a starter.

Krusty
07-14-2006, 06:20 PM
If lopez and Kearns= 2 bullpen guys, I am at a loss as to whats left that could net a starter.

Here is the way I see it. Come 2007 you'll have Majeski and Bray for the bullpen. Phillips goes to shortstop. Either Harris or a free agent second baseman is brought in. Denorfia establishes himself as a major league outfielder that you can hit at the top of the order.

Right now, Clayton is an upgrade over Lopez defensively at shortstop. The Reds have their closer in Guardado with Majeski, Bray and Coffey the setup men. Freel gets more playing time in RF and leads off for the Reds.

Marc D
07-14-2006, 06:30 PM
Here is the way I see it. Come 2007 you'll have Majeski and Bray for the bullpen. Phillips goes to shortstop. Either Harris or a free agent second baseman is brought in. Denorfia establishes himself as a major league outfielder that you can hit at the top of the order.

Right now, Clayton is an upgrade over Lopez defensively at shortstop. The Reds have their closer in Guardado with Majeski, Bray and Coffey the setup men. Freel gets more playing time in RF and leads off for the Reds.

Ok but who gets traded for a 5th starter? LaRue/Aurilia/Hatteberg is pretty much all you have left unless you start raiding the farm system(at which point I'm pretty much done if it happens).

Only thing I could see is trading Jr to say Detroit for a pitcher but I don't know if you could get back the type of pitcher needed to offset the hit we take offensively. This team sans FeLo, AK and JR would suffer a significant drop in run production. But that type of pitcher is going to mean no slary relief, which is the point in trading Jr so I don't see it at all.

Dunn and EE are Krivsky's core it appears so I don't think its either one of them.

All in all I'd be estatic to get a starter in here but I shudder to think of what it may cost after yesterdays trade.

Matt700wlw
07-14-2006, 06:31 PM
If lopez and Kearns= 2 bullpen guys, I am at a loss as to whats left that could net a starter.

Dunn's name would have to be involved.

Kc61
07-14-2006, 06:33 PM
Ok but who gets traded for a 5th starter? LaRue/Aurilia/Hatteberg is pretty much all you have left unless you start raiding the farm system(at which point I'm pretty much done if it happens).

Only thing I could see is trading Jr to say Detroit for a pitcher but I don't know if you could get back the type of pitcher needed to offset the hit we take offensively. This team sans FeLo, AK and JR would suffer a significant drop in run production. But that type of pitcher is going to mean no slary relief, which is the point in trading Jr so I don't see it at all.

Dunn and EE are Krivsky's core it appears so I don't think its either one of them.

All in all I'd be estatic to get a starter in here but I shudder to think of what it may cost after yesterdays trade.

They can get a pitcher for money. At deadline, perhaps Reds can get a starter due some bucks from a team that doesn't want to pay. Money and some non-top tier prospects for a "solid veteran."

Marc D
07-14-2006, 06:36 PM
They can get a pitcher for money. At deadline, perhaps Reds can get a starter due some bucks from a team that doesn't want to pay. Money and some non-top tier prospects for a "solid veteran."

I could live with that but at this point I'm having a mental image of Kriv saying "Why pay a Million when we could pay him a Billion?"

http://www.defence.gov.au/news/armynews/editions/1119/images/16-dr%20evil_th.jpg

Kc61
07-14-2006, 06:42 PM
I could live with that but at this point I'm having a mental image of Kriv saying "Why pay a Million when we could pay him a Billion?"

http://www.defence.gov.au/news/armynews/editions/1119/images/16-dr%20evil_th.jpg

Well, the media thinks Kriv overpaid, many fans think he overpaid, he may have overpaid. But we don't know what other GMs were willing to give up for these Kearns and Lopez. Presumably, Krivsky asked around.

Teams just don't trade good young major league caliber pitchers. They are hard to get and Kriv was willing to bite the bullet. That the Reds' package could have netted a lot more -- particularly young major league pitching -- is really speculation.

reds44
07-14-2006, 06:42 PM
Ok but who gets traded for a 5th starter? LaRue/Aurilia/Hatteberg is pretty much all you have left unless you start raiding the farm system(at which point I'm pretty much done if it happens).

Only thing I could see is trading Jr to say Detroit for a pitcher but I don't know if you could get back the type of pitcher needed to offset the hit we take offensively. This team sans FeLo, AK and JR would suffer a significant drop in run production. But that type of pitcher is going to mean no slary relief, which is the point in trading Jr so I don't see it at all.

Dunn and EE are Krivsky's core it appears so I don't think its either one of them.

All in all I'd be estatic to get a starter in here but I shudder to think of what it may cost after yesterdays trade.
Don't underestimate that. If EE and Dunn (23,26) are his core, that is a very good offensive base to build on.

Eric_Davis
07-14-2006, 06:56 PM
I Love this Trade!

I Love this Trade!

I Love this Trade!

registerthis
07-14-2006, 06:57 PM
I Love this Trade!

I Love this Trade!

I Love this Trade!

Kriv?

That you?

dsmith421
07-14-2006, 07:00 PM
Here is the way I see it. Come 2007 you'll have Majeski and Bray for the bullpen. Phillips goes to shortstop. Either Harris or a free agent second baseman is brought in. Denorfia establishes himself as a major league outfielder that you can hit at the top of the order.



So if every segment of this deal is a completely best case scenario, we have marginally improved the bullpen. Great. Much more likely that Majewski turns into a pumpkin away from RFK, Phillips and Ross are having career years, Guardado is done, and Harris never makes it in the bigs.

This trade has made the Reds a national laughingstock (again). I understand why people are trying to defend it, but many of the justifications are torturing logic.

SteelSD
07-14-2006, 07:29 PM
So, what you're telling me the Reds haven't improved their bullpen with the Guardado and this deals?

I'm telling you that the Reds haven't improved their team.


Bottom line is they didn't mortgage the farm system to make a run this year.

No, they just sold the farm for pennies on the dollar because apparently mortgaging it wasn't an option.

Ltlabner
07-15-2006, 12:10 AM
Yep, we shoulda done nothing. Kept running Standridge, Yan, Burns, Hammons, Merker, Weathers and Coffee out there. Just said "we're done" for the year and set us off on yet another "rebuilding" year as we watch the team slowly fade from contention. Boy that would have been great.

It will be interesting to see what other trades relating to bullpen help happen. If there's a glut of decent-to-good bullpen arms snapped up for garbage and cast offs then we'll know Kriv kicked it into the weeds. If other teams also over pay then it just goes you that limited supply and increased demand always end up raising prices. Ahhh...the comfort of absoultes.

I am amused that people are convinced that AK and Lopez will definatley improve and become all-star HOF type players for the rest of their carears. And that the pitchers and prospects we got will definatley be horrible. Seems to me there have been more than one trade in the past that didn't work out quite like "the experts" and the crisp neat numbers on paper said they would. We can look at trends, and analyisis and graphs all day, and while they do give us a reasonable expectation of what might happen, they by no means guarentee that everything will happen as everybody expects.

See also: Morgan, Sever, Geranamo, Ryan Wager, et al

bottom_feeder
07-15-2006, 01:40 AM
Yep, we shoulda done nothing. Kept running Standridge, Yan, Burns, Hammons, Merker, Weathers and Coffee out there. Just said "we're done" for the year and set us off on yet another "rebuilding" year as we watch the team slowly fade from contention. Boy that would have been great.


This trade is going to make us fader faster from contention. I can't believe the Reds made such a dumb move.

SteelSD
07-15-2006, 01:46 AM
Yep, we shoulda done nothing. Kept running Standridge, Yan, Burns, Hammons, Merker, Weathers and Coffee out there. Just said "we're done" for the year and set us off on yet another "rebuilding" year as we watch the team slowly fade from contention. Boy that would have been great.

That line of thought is simply convoluted. If you're trying to fix a hole in your wall, you don't rip a bigger hole in the same wall to cover the smaller hole.

Action for action's sake is the worst of all possible supporting arguments.


It will be interesting to see what other trades relating to bullpen help happen. If there's a glut of decent-to-good bullpen arms snapped up for garbage and cast offs then we'll know Kriv kicked it into the weeds. If other teams also over pay then it just goes you that limited supply and increased demand always end up raising prices. Ahhh...the comfort of absoultes.

Yeah. People are telling you there are no guarantees so you go back to the strawman that they're speaking of "absolutes". Say it as often as you like, but know it's wrong every time you type it.

Oh, and the Brewers traded an older lesser player than Kearns (Lyle Overbay) for a return of Dave Bush, Gabe Gross, and Zach Jackson. Dave Bush has the 11th lowest DIPS in the NL and the 11th highest K rate in the National League. Worth more than a slightly above average reliever plus a HR-prone Bill Bray. Heck, Zach Jackson has a real strong chance to outproduce Bray by himself. Gross has more value than the ancillary pieces combined (Clayton, Harris).

For one guy (Overbay), the Brewers received a pitcher who's actually been doing better than Bronson Arroyo (Bush), a legit LH prospect (Jackson), and an .800+ MLB Outfielder. If the Reds had made a value-equitable trade like that, you'd hear no one complaining. But they didn't. Now you go find the last team to trade an above-average starting MLB Right Fielder and an above-average starting MLB Middle Infielder for a slightly above-average RP, a prospect RP who's historically had trouble with the longball, and chaff. Seriously, go find those deals. If you think you found one, then add the qualifiers "under 27" and "affordable". Good luck.


I am amused that people are convinced that AK and Lopez will definatley improve and become all-star HOF type players for the rest of their carears. And that the pitchers and prospects we got will definatley be horrible. Seems to me there have been more than one trade in the past that didn't work out quite like "the experts" and the crisp neat numbers on paper said they would. We can look at trends, and analyisis and graphs all day, and while they do give us a reasonable expectation of what might happen, they by no means guarentee that everything will happen as everybody expects.

And the most amusing thing is that no one has ever- not ONCE- positioned that Kearns and Lopez will "definitely improve and become all-star HOF type players for the rest of their careers". That thought exists only in your own brain. No one's said it. It's bad enough that we've seen one strawman prior to that paragraph, but you've hit a strawman trifecta in one post by then repeating your demand that anyone opposing the trade is speaking in absolutes and that anyone thinks Kearns and Lopez have HOF-level potential.

The irony is that you might fare better by looking for relevant reasons to be excited about the trade. I doubt you'll find them but, at minimum, looking for them is far more productive than transparent attempts by making up opposing positions that no one's yet taken.


See also: Morgan, Sever, Geranamo, Ryan Wager, et al

See also what? See also good trades that don't comp with the one the Reds just made? Where is the established high-level high-OBP Second Baseman in Kearns/Lopez deal? Where is the established ace-level starter? What does Ryan Wagner have to do with anything other than he was shipped out? See also: Huh?

Ltlabner
07-15-2006, 06:44 AM
See also what? See also good trades that don't comp with the one the Reds just made? Where is the established high-level high-OBP Second Baseman in Kearns/Lopez deal? Where is the established ace-level starter? What does Ryan Wagner have to do with anything other than he was shipped out? See also: Huh?

You missed the point. Those were players who were "projected" to have a certian outcome yet did something different. Sever was supposed to come to town and take us all the way....didn't happen. People flipped over Morgan (who's that) yet he turned out ok. Ryan Wagner was supposed to be the ace of the future. Now he's history. So while some here are saying they know for sure what is going to happen the fact is none of us do.


And the most amusing thing is that no one has ever- not ONCE- positioned that Kearns and Lopez will "definitely improve and become all-star HOF type players for the rest of their careers". That thought exists only in your own brain. No one's said it. It's bad enough that we've seen one strawman prior to that paragraph, but you've hit a strawman trifecta in one post by then repeating your demand that anyone opposing the trade is speaking in absolutes and that anyone thinks Kearns and Lopez have HOF-level potential.

Funny, I've read more than one post on many threads talking about how Kearns and Lopez are destined to continue to improve, are going into their prime, playing below their means etc. But you got me, the specific words "definitely improve and become all-star HOF type players for the rest of their careers" weren't used. Blew me right out of the water.

Again you missed my point. People are saying/claiming/hinting/implying that the pitchers we got will definatley fall apart when they come here while at the same time claiming that AK and Lopez will definatley continue to improve. I'm saying that we don't know definatley what is going to happen at all. Oh yea, they may not have said it exactly as I typed it so be forwared.


It will be interesting to see what other trades relating to bullpen help happen. If there's a glut of decent-to-good bullpen arms snapped up for garbage and cast offs then we'll know Kriv kicked it into the weeds. If other teams also over pay then it just goes you that limited supply and increased demand always end up raising prices. Ahhh...the comfort of absoultes.

Here's another one you missed the boat on. My comment about "absoultes" is in reference to the law of supply and demand. And that's the only definate we can be sure of. And that's what I take comfort in. You've actually reversed my entire argument. I've been saying all along that there are no definates involved in baseball trades so everybody saying that XYZ bad outcome is going to happen is wrong....of course until it really does happen. And they're just as wrong as the people saying XYZ good thing is definatley going to happen....of course until it really does happen.

But we woln't know that until some time passes now will we?


Action for action's sake is the worst of all possible supporting arguments.

And the most amusing thing is that I have never, NOT ONCE, positioned that the Reds should make a trade just for the joy of making a trade. That thought exists only in your own brain. I've not said it. Again, the point I was making (actually building apon a series of posts earlier in the day) was twofold.

(1) People were saying that this trade was a "white flag" of surrender by the FO. My position would be that standing firm with our high school level bullpen would be giving up.

(2) People have said we should have just waited. My point was that sometimes waiting isn't the best option. Especially in a sellers market where the prices will get higher. Especially when there is increased demand.

GAC
07-15-2006, 07:37 AM
I'm telling you that the Reds haven't improved their team.

I think that is yet to be determined isn't it?

And Austin Kearns is no Lyle Overbay.... not even close IMO.

Marty and Joe
07-15-2006, 09:19 AM
I'm skeptical of this deal as many of you are, however, I can also see how it attempts to fix a current problem that needed to be fixed while at the same time also providing the opportunity to control 4 young guys at a cheap cost for the near future. I agree with the 'infrastructure-building' comment earlier.

It's bold - that's for sure. It's both current and forward thinking. We can debate the return - on the surface it may not look good. But, I'm curious to see how this one plays out...both this year and for the next several.

Kriv is reshaping this team rather quickly. This is the first deal he's made that gave me pause in a not-so-good way initially. But, this one has a long way to go to play out. I'll be curious to see this thread again a few years from now.

traderumor
07-15-2006, 09:38 AM
Now you go find the last team to trade an above-average starting MLB Right Fielder and an above-average starting MLB Middle Infielder
Speaking of strawmen...

Ltlabner
07-15-2006, 09:52 AM
Speaking of strawmen...

There is a lot of talk from some here about strawmen....I myself am a much bigger fan of the tinman. Then again, I never learned nothing from him, that I didn't already know....

SteelSD
07-15-2006, 12:09 PM
You missed the point. Those were players who were "projected" to have a certian outcome yet did something different. Sever was supposed to come to town and take us all the way....didn't happen. People flipped over Morgan (who's that) yet he turned out ok. Ryan Wagner was supposed to be the ace of the future. Now he's history.

Tom Seaver was acquired at age 32 in 1977 for a bunch of chaff and Tom Seaver freakin' rocked. There were valid reasons to acquire a Joe Morgan. The great thing is that he wasn't the finish to that haul, which also included Billingham and a decent little player in Geronimo. Ryan Wagner was never looked to as the "ace" of the future. He was drafted as a reliever, rushed to the show as a reliever, and died the death of a reliever with no real fastball. Happens.


So while some here are saying they know for sure what is going to happen the fact is none of us do.

You keep saying folks like that exist, but they don't and you've been told as much in no uncertain terms.


Funny, I've read more than one post on many threads talking about how Kearns and Lopez are destined to continue to improve, are going into their prime, playing below their means etc. But you got me, the specific words "definitely improve and become all-star HOF type players for the rest of their careers" weren't used. Blew me right out of the water.

Again you missed my point. People are saying/claiming/hinting/implying that the pitchers we got will definatley fall apart when they come here while at the same time claiming that AK and Lopez will definatley continue to improve. I'm saying that we don't know definatley what is going to happen at all. Oh yea, they may not have said it exactly as I typed it so be forwared.

No, you haven't read a bunch of posts that talk about how Kearns and Lopez are "destined" to improve. You've read a bunch of posts telling you that improvement is likely considering they're just about to move into their age-prime seasons. You continue to misinterpret probability as certainty and I'm not sure why.


Here's another one you missed the boat on. My comment about "absoultes" is in reference to the law of supply and demand. And that's the only definate we can be sure of. And that's what I take comfort in. You've actually reversed my entire argument. I've been saying all along that there are no definates involved in baseball trades so everybody saying that XYZ bad outcome is going to happen is wrong....of course until it really does happen. And they're just as wrong as the people saying XYZ good thing is definatley going to happen....of course until it really does happen.

Well, as no one has ever stated that the future is set in stone, your position doesn't really doesn't have any footing.


But we woln't know that until some time passes now will we?

We know what's most probable. You can ignore it all you like. But we know what's most likely to happen. That's the great thing about understanding probability- it allows you to tell good decisions from bad decisions at the point of the decision.


And the most amusing thing is that I have never, NOT ONCE, positioned that the Reds should make a trade just for the joy of making a trade. That thought exists only in your own brain. I've not said it. Again, the point I was making (actually building apon a series of posts earlier in the day) was twofold.

(1) People were saying that this trade was a "white flag" of surrender by the FO. My position would be that standing firm with our high school level bullpen would be giving up.

(2) People have said we should have just waited. My point was that sometimes waiting isn't the best option. Especially in a sellers market where the prices will get higher. Especially when there is increased demand.

The very moment you position the concept of "Well we had to do something" as justification for a bad trade, you've just backed the concept of action for action's sake. Maybe you don't realize you did it, but you did. Funny thing is that something DID need to happen to fix the pen. Problem is that the solution Krivsky chose was awful. The fact that the pen needed to be fixed isn't justification for doing what he did. And the irony is that the pen doesn't look to be all that "fixed" with the players acquired. They didn't get shut-down dominant relievers. That's part of the tragedy.

SteelSD
07-15-2006, 12:21 PM
I think that is yet to be determined isn't it?

And Austin Kearns is no Lyle Overbay.... not even close IMO.

Lyle Overbay 2006: 5.99 RC/27
Austin Kearns 2006: 5.66 RC/27

Career:

Lyle Overbay: .830 OPS
Austin Kearns: .825 OPS

Now, which of the two do you think provides more defensive value? Yep. Kearns. Which of the two have we seen age-prime seasons from already? Yep. Overbay. Lyle Overbay's MLB career had barely started at Kearns age. And yet, Milwaukee was able to get a multi-player high-value haul headed up by a very solid and projectible Starting Pitcher (Bush) for one guy who, during his age-prime seasons, has been as good as Kearns has been before moving into his age-prime seasons.

SteelSD
07-15-2006, 12:35 PM
Speaking of strawmen...

Kearns was right about average in 2005. After starting off poorly he got jerked around by a team desperate to lay down whatever law it was that guided them to disaster. After the ASB last year, Kearns posted a .851 OPS and was sitting at .843 OPS at the time of the trade. Lopez was well above average in 2005 and is still above average this season despite a lower SLG than last season. Going forward, both players project seasonal above-average performance on a yearly basis. Felipe may need to be moved off Shortstop eventually, but above-average offensive middle infielders are rare commodities and Kearns isn't a dime-a-dozen player.

Now, feel free to look for a trade that resembles the one the Reds just made. If you can find one, it won't be hard to figure out who the winner and loser were.

traderumor
07-15-2006, 01:21 PM
Kearns was right about average in 2005. After starting off poorly he got jerked around by a team desperate to lay down whatever law it was that guided them to disaster. After the ASB last year, Kearns posted a .851 OPS and was sitting at .843 OPS at the time of the trade. Lopez was well above average in 2005 and is still above average this season despite a lower SLG than last season. Going forward, both players project seasonal above-average performance on a yearly basis. Felipe may need to be moved off Shortstop eventually, but above-average offensive middle infielders are rare commodities and Kearns isn't a dime-a-dozen player.
Either are, at best, average players. Keeping and overpaying average players or waiting until they had little value is the model that has been so instrumental in bringing about this wonderful era of Reds baseball. Flipping average position players getting ready to get a payday in the screwed up system that results in a salary bulge for just such types of players with average position players to replace them (although we will take a small downtick at SS overall, admittedly) plus adding young, above average major league talent in an area that is horrific is a different model. Here's to a new model, whether Steel SD likes it or not. ;)

SteelSD
07-15-2006, 02:17 PM
Either are, at best, average players. Keeping and overpaying average players or waiting until they had little value is the model that has been so instrumental in bringing about this wonderful era of Reds baseball. Flipping average position players getting ready to get a payday in the screwed up system that results in a salary bulge for just such types of players with average position players to replace them (although we will take a small downtick at SS overall, admittedly) plus adding young, above average major league talent in an area that is horrific is a different model. Here's to a new model, whether Steel SD likes it or not. ;)

tr, both players have produced and are likely to continue to produce above-average Run values. Adding above-average performance in a need area is fine as long as you don't end up with a probable negative impact to your overall Run Differential- which is what this trade represents. Majewski is a lot more average than you think. Bray doesn't project as well as we're being told. We didn't get better defensively anywhere.

The money saved is a red herring. That money could have been saved by trading both players for a return that netted the Reds a probable significant Run value gain- which isn't what happened.

I know folks are trying desperately to justify this deal. It's part of the process. I've never considered either player to be untouchable. In fact, I've often offered up trade scenarios for each. I don't dislike the return just because I didn't want to see the guys traded or because I don't want to like Wayne Krivsky. When I saw the players involved, the first thing I did was go take a look at them rather than jump to conclusions. The knot in my stomach twisted tighter with each successive viewing.

ochre
07-15-2006, 02:20 PM
I see a lot of "Glad we got rid of them, they suck" type comments. Then I see some more balanced analytical views of what really has gone on. I'm happy everybody is please with this trade. I'm sure that'll make it a winner. The fact remains, on the field, from a performance factor the Reds just lost two above average everyday players that were just coming into their prime years and also were still controlled by the team for another 2 years.

Teams like the Reds can not afford to lose players (performance-wise) like that for, at best, average relief pitching. Trading these guys in the offseason would have been much better proposition than moving them now for overpriced relief pitching.

The only valid rationale for this trade is that it was a clubhouse make-over. We just paid Frank Lloyd Wright for a dirt floor shack with a coal burning stuff and no running water.

RedFanAlways1966
07-15-2006, 02:34 PM
fact remains, on the field, from a performance factor the Reds just lost two above average everyday players that were just coming into their prime years and also were still controlled by the team for another 2 years.


Lots of questions...

Does the arrival of Denorfia , and a spot for him on the big team, lessen the above-comment any? Can he stay healthy for an entire year and put up quality numbers at the plate like he has done at AAA (look out for Larson comments!)?

Does Lopez' defense (lack of) at arguably the most important defensive position on the field really make him "above average"? Granted, the REDS do not have a solution for SS at the moment. However, as I have thought all year, do you really need 8 offensive studs to be a winner? Or can you give up some O for some D at a very important position? Can you get some bullpen help without giving up something of quality... or do we think Wayne didn't give that angle a shot before agreeing with Jimbo?

IMO (just an opnion)... OFs are plentiful in the MLs. Austin is a good ballplayer, but there are many others like him in the MLs. Denorfia for Austin will not make as big of a diff. as not trying to fill the MAJOR problem in the bullpen. Were there better arms to be had for AK and FeLo? I'd like to believe that Wayne did attempt to get something else (better), but other teams do not value FeLo and AK like some here. And who are the great middle-relievers that are available?

ochre
07-15-2006, 02:47 PM
I've always like Denorfia. Ideally he would have been the CF from day one this year. Having players like him doesn't mean you have to unload other good players. The big swings in talent acquisition when a team is moving position players tend to happen in the offseason. People want pitching always, but in season acquisition of pitching is always costly.

Therein lies my problem with this trade. I, personally, think this move was like going all in hoping for an inside straight draw.

membengal
07-15-2006, 02:52 PM
Even if Denorfia is as good as I think he is, or others think he is for that matter, it still won't address the fundamental flaw with this deal...the less-than-acceptable return from what was dealt.

oregonred
07-15-2006, 03:12 PM
I keep thinking about this deal and what appears to be a wide talent gap on paper.

1) Krivsky just made a savvy trade for Guadardo less than a week before so he should know the market for relievers. Aging vet on a last year deal, but got him for virtually nothing more than a once sexy, but stalled AA level pitcher. Reds took on about 800K of salary

2) Krivsky has been shopping Kearns since he got to town. He should know his value. He traded WMP so he should know the market for young OF's with "potential" more than anyone

3) Jimbo would be the one GM emotionally attached to Kearns and Lopez and thus one would think he would pay more than most. He loves the names.

4) Despite the Guardado move the Reds pen may have lost 3-4 games the week before in a span of five days (Sun vs. Cle, 2 in Milwaukee and Thurs night in ATL). Krivsky couldn't wait to see if Guardado + setup Coffey was enough he needed more pen ammo -- and fast. He didn't want to wait for a July 31st or August salary dump acquisition for a two month vet -- it would be too late for 2006.

5) The starting pitching market doesn't exist (yet) and may not exist until winter for anything half decent. Two of the best and deepest pocket franchises in the game have played DFA shuffle with Weaver/Ponson and the Mets have Lima in their rotation. Taking a look at the pen of the Yankees beyond Rivera and it's pretty ugly

6) Going into the DFA pool with guys like Yan/Mays midseason just isn't going to work.

Unless our GM purprosely wanted to get ripped off on paper, the only conclusion is that the pitching market is tighter than ever -- and getting two young, pen arms that could be the anchor of your pen the next 5-6 years is apparently very costly

Is Majewski a young Scott Sullivan? A young 26 yrs -- used seemingly every night by the Nats in all situations, but overall not much wear yet on the arm at the MLB level with 1.5 yrs service time, Expos upbringing pre-Bowden regime. Pretty good stuff, a career 3.3 ERA and sub .670 OPS in 160 IP. A setup man that can eat innings on the cheap for the next 4-5 seasons. The Nats appear to have used in all situations -- tight ones with him in the 7th-9th and some others when they needed some outs-- he's their rubber arm apparently. If so, then moving him solely into almost exclusively and meaningful 7th-9th situations for the Reds (aka Sullivan) makes sense. He can go 2 innings a 1-2 times a week a single 1 inning another 2-3 nights with ease. This is a valuable, young setup guy already, not a "Middle reliever". I think Scott Sullivan.

Bray -- 23 years, Great stuff, lefty. Already pitched in meaningful situations for the Nats. Reds must project him no worse than a top notch lefty setup man and more likely as their top candidate closer for 2007-2012. Young and cheap for a long, long time. If he's anywhere as good as Charlton in his prime he's huge. If he becomes an above average closer even better.

So breaking the trade into two parts:

1a) Kearns for Majewski and Bray. This feels like a good deal for the Reds and the one Krivsky should have (and for all we know was) pushed due to JimBo's unique overvaluing of Kearns as a "potential" 30/100 guy. This would be a win for the Reds. Throw in Wagner if you had too.

1b) Lopez for the other parts. This is where I keep scratching my head as to why Lopez was included at this point in time -- unless #1 above just wasn't good enough and realistic. Krivsky must have really wanted to get rid of Lopez this season due to defense and/or he must value the two prosepcts in the deal and Clayton in 2H 2006 as enough to fill the SS gap this season. Lopez seems to have been sold low, but I would have probably moved Lopez in the offseason and let him finish out 2006 as a Red. As a weak SS and more likely a 2B his numbers, his escalating salary and career .740 OPS look a lot less attractive. He should have been moved. Not sure this was the right deal to toss him into.

Given the above assumptions as evidence, I have to trust Krivsky knew the market value for Lopez/Kearns and for pen arms. I love a young, cheap pen base of two setup guys (Coffey, Majewski) and a possible lefty closer starting in 2007 (Bray). These three as anchors alone could make the Reds pen cheap and very solid from 2007-2010. All I know is when the Reds were competitive in the mid 80's, 1990, 1994-1995, 1999 the pen rocked. You could almost argue they were the strength of every single one of those fun teams. I like the general direction here and hope Wayne K managed to find our next young Scott Sullivan (seems he did) and in 2007 and beyond and above average and cheap closer in Bray (this is where it gets a little more dicey).

edabbs44
07-15-2006, 03:12 PM
Lots of questions...

Does the arrival of Denorfia , and a spot for him on the big team, lessen the above-comment any? Can he stay healthy for an entire year and put up quality numbers at the plate like he has done at AAA (look out for Larson comments!)?

No...if the Reds had a solid starting rotation, would you want them to deal Harang for less than value b/c Bailey is ready? Or Dunn b/c Bruce is ready? You need to get value for what you are trading, especially when your payroll limits you to about $60 million.

oregonred
07-15-2006, 03:23 PM
No...if the Reds had a solid starting rotation, would you want them to deal Harang for less than value b/c Bailey is ready? Or Dunn b/c Bruce is ready? You need to get value for what you are trading, especially when your payroll limits you to about $60 million.

I want as much young and talented pitching as possible. I want to hoard this kind of stuff. I want to be greedy. I'll fix everything else around that base.

I really am starting to like where this thing is going for the next couple of years;

Young, Talented and Cheap Staff Base:

Harang (we've got an ace folks)
Arroyo (solid #2, still cheap until 2009)
Ramirez
Bailey (2H 2007 or earlier)

Bray (setup, closer)
Majewski (setup, Scott Sullivan rubber-man)
Coffey (setup)

Offense: Dunn + EE + BP as your young base (Votto + DenO hopefully join the group)

2007 Salary flexibility: $10-15M in the offseason. Key is getting rid of as much of the $25M deadweight (Milton/Larue/KGJ) as possible before 2007 opens. At least the first two of those three. Then we've got a boatload of salary flexibility for salary dumping trades/FA acquisitions, etc.

edabbs44
07-15-2006, 03:36 PM
2007 Salary flexibility: $10-15M in the offseason. Key is getting rid of as much of the $25M deadweight (Milton/Larue/KGJ) as possible before 2007 opens. At least the first two of those three. Then we've got a boatload of salary flexibility for salary dumping trades/FA acquisitions, etc.
Here is the biggest misconception of this trade. How does this give $10-15M in flexibility? Sure, that's a good estimate of what those two would bring home in arbitration. But I seriously doubt this payroll was headed north of $70M next season. There is no way they will boost payroll b/c of what they WOULD have saved IF they signed FeLo and AK next season. It's one thing to clear actual salary, it's a whole other ballgame when talking about clearing unrealized salary.

GAC
07-15-2006, 04:13 PM
I see a lot of "Glad we got rid of them, they suck" type comments. Then I see some more balanced analytical views of what really has gone on. I'm happy everybody is please with this trade. I'm sure that'll make it a winner. The fact remains, on the field, from a performance factor the Reds just lost two above average everyday players that were just coming into their prime years and also were still controlled by the team for another 2 years.

I don't see where Lopez, when one looks at his performance this year, as one finally coming into his prime. Not when one looks at his performance overall, and not just last year's possible career year. Was 2005 a fluke?

Maybe we should have continued to hold onto them and hope they got better, thus raising their trade value. But IMO, I don't think it was gonna happen.

I don't think their "loss" is gonna be as damaging to this team as some think.

oregonred
07-15-2006, 04:17 PM
Here is the biggest misconception of this trade. How does this give $10-15M in flexibility? Sure, that's a good estimate of what those two would bring home in arbitration. But I seriously doubt this payroll was headed north of $70M next season. There is no way they will boost payroll b/c of what they WOULD have saved IF they signed FeLo and AK next season. It's one thing to clear actual salary, it's a whole other ballgame when talking about clearing unrealized salary.

I wasn't thinking that this trade allowed the $10-15M, but maybe it does

This trade helps here;
FeLO = $4-5M next season
AK = $4-5M next season
Replacment cost: TBD (Deno $350K, MI filler: Prospects or cheap vet)

$7-9M more flexibility next season.

Cost Opportunity saved;

Majewski + Bray = $750K combined (and under control until 2011/2012 respectively)

2 above average setup FA vets in the offseason: $1M for fodder or $2-3M+ over multiple years each for anyone that's at all above average. (Plus a possible loss of a draft pick if you actually go find someone decent).

You save 1) on the escalating salaries of Kearns + Lopez (granted there was no urgency to get them off the books until the offseason) and 2) on the opportunity cost saved for not having to find + pony up (as lots of others always want good setup type relief) for a couple of above average FA pen arms in the offseason.

Salary focus can become: Starting pitching (hard), a pen around the three young setup guys + maybe a cheap Standridge, a solid MI part for 2B (could be a vet -- shouldn't be hard to find), a solid 4th OF backup (always on the market).

ochre
07-15-2006, 04:21 PM
I don't see where Lopez, when one looks at his performance this year, as one finally coming into his prime. Not when one looks at his performance overall, and not just last year's possible career year. Was 2005 a fluke?

Maybe we should have continued to hold onto them and hope they got better, thus raising their trade value. But IMO, I don't think it was gonna happen.

I don't think their "loss" is gonna be as damaging to this team as some think.
Their loss is tangible. It shows up in their runs created numbers. Did the Reds replace those runs created with runs saved? I see people throwing Phillips out there as a can't miss replacement, yet Lopez out performed him at all levels offensively at the same age. The time to trade players like the Reds dealt isn't in the middle of the season.

That's really not the prime issue though. The prime issue is that it would appear 'win this year' is the driver. I don't think that's wise given the shallow state this organization is in from top to bottom.

oregonred
07-15-2006, 04:35 PM
Their loss is tangible. It shows up in their runs created numbers. Did the Reds replace those runs created with runs saved? I see people throwing Phillips out there as a can't miss replacement, yet Lopez out performed him at all levels offensively at the same age. The time to trade players like the Reds dealt isn't in the middle of the season.

That's really not the prime issue though. The prime issue is that it would appear 'win this year' is the driver. I don't think that's wise given the shallow state this organization is in from top to bottom.

I understand the concern on the offensive side, but I think Krivsky has plugged some serious holes this season and for the next 3-4. Plus an added bonus of all three of Bailey + Bruce + Votto having great years and shooting up the minor league charts. Great fortune for Wayne and us on the B+B+V trifecta...

Again as I posted above, I am starting to love how this staff is coming together with a Young, Talented and Cheap Staff Base: All the below talented arms for under $10M next season;

1) Harang (we've got an ace folks)
2) Arroyo (solid #2, still cheap until 2009)
3) Ramirez (biggest hope on this list, but so far so good)
4) Bailey (2H 2007 or earlier)

1) Bray (setup, closer)
2) Majewski (setup, Scott Sullivan rubber-man)
3) Coffey (setup)

Offense: EE + BP as your young base (Votto + DenO ready to join the group)

Offensive hammers: Dunn, KGJ (if still here)

Salary Flexibility $10-15M or much more if we can move any of Larue/Milton/KGJ

Matt700wlw
07-15-2006, 06:46 PM
2) Krivsky has been shopping Kearns since he got to town. He should know his value. He traded WMP so he should know the market for young OF's with "potential" more than anyone



He also turned Boston down when they wanted Kearns in the Arroyo deal. He made them "settle" for WMP. To me that shows he felt he could get more for Kearns.

It appears to me this guy knows what he'd doing. Throw in the Phillips (which may be the biggest steal in baseball) and Ross moves, and I have no reason NOT to have faith in him.

He's done more to fix this team in 3-4 months than Dan O'Brien did in 3 years.

vaticanplum
07-15-2006, 06:57 PM
I am starting to really believe that we may see a semi-significant increase in payroll in the off-season, whether this team drops to fourth in the division or makes the playoffs. Castellini seems pretty serious about winning, and if the team continues to do well there hopefull will be a good income from tickets (a lot of home games left this season). If not, yes, there is extra money to be used here because of this trade.

Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think we're heading towards another very good starting pitcher.

GAC
07-15-2006, 07:13 PM
I've always like Denorfia. Ideally he would have been the CF from day one this year. Having players like him doesn't mean you have to unload other good players.

Then how do you expect to even have any chance of acquiring any help at this period of the season if you're not willing to even part with players like Lopez and Kearns?


People want pitching always, but in season acquisition of pitching is always costly.

That's true. But I don't see this trade as being really that costly. Especially if Deno and the arms acquired provide dividends.

redsfanmia
07-15-2006, 08:36 PM
No...if the Reds had a solid starting rotation, would you want them to deal Harang for less than value b/c Bailey is ready? Or Dunn b/c Bruce is ready? You need to get value for what you are trading, especially when your payroll limits you to about $60 million.


I think that you are completely over valueing Kearns and Lopez. Do you really think that Wayne K talked to the Nats only? Do you think he jumped at the first deal that Jimbo threw at him? Do you think that Wayne K knows what he is doing at all? Kearns and Lopez were about to become really expensive and really they are just average players so your whole argument is bupkis if you talk about value and a 60 million dollar payroll.

Ltlabner
07-15-2006, 11:56 PM
Tom Seaver was acquired at age 32 in 1977 for a bunch of chaff and Tom Seaver freakin' rocked. Without a doubt (in fact I was really bumbed that I didn't get to meet him tonight at the Reds Hall of Fame thing). But he also didn't take us "over the top" for yet another WS win in 77 did he. Again the point is that the while the "probablity" of winning another WS on paper looked good, in real life, it didn't happen.


Well, as no one has ever stated that the future is set in stone, your position doesn't really doesn't have any footing. Then why are a large number of posters blowing a gasket? Some blew a complete gasket before Kriv even explained his rationale behind the trade. They obviously feal that the outcome is certian....why else would they be so worked up? If they don't feal the outcome is certian, they I guess they like to make dire, dramatic posts just for kicks or attention. If the future isn't set in stone then let's all sit back a bit, and even through the trade doesn't make sense to you, let's let this thing unfold before we all run Krvi out of town on a rail.


We know what's most probable. You can ignore it all you like. But we know what's most likely to happen. That's the great thing about understanding probability- it allows you to tell good decisions from bad decisions at the point of the decision. Oh I understand probablity just fine. I've also been around the block enough times to know that probability and reality don't always mesh up. That just comes with experience, I suppose.


You've read a bunch of posts telling you that improvement is likely considering they're just about to move into their age-prime seasons.

Yet the two relievers we acquired are also young and have the potential to develop into valuable tools, but of course most leave that out. And before you scream "small sample size" don't forget that AK has never player a full season without being hurt and Lopez as put up 1 whole good year SS (last year). So the "small sample size" argument fits all involved besides Clayton.

Interestingly, both AK and Lopez had their positions "locked up" this year and had no threat of being benched at the first sign of trouble yet neither have really set the world on fire. No marked impovement inspite of the early job security. Good yes, "all-star-can't-afford-to-lose", no. I guess they'll make this marked, contiuned, probable improvement next year then.


The very moment you position the concept of "Well we had to do something" as justification for a bad trade, you've just backed the concept of action for action's sake. So cut and paste where I suggested we just had to do something now and damn the cost. Good luck to you.

Again, my point, is that if you do choose to "wait for that better deal" it may never come. In fact, DanO ended up with Milton because of this. I've never said we need to do something "just because" but a lot of people here forget the basics of logic sometimes when they say "we should wait" because they are assuming a better deal will definatley be available.

If said deal doesn't happen you know what happens to the Reds? They are done, over, dead. Now this trade may not "push them over the top" either...I've never said whether it would or wouldn't. But BC and Kriv have made it clear that they want to win, and win now. So it's only logical to assume they judge the risk of waiting in todays market to be higher than the risk of making the deal. Who's judgement about the baseball trade market do I trust more....the guys in the trenches day to day (and an owner that knows something about building solid businesses) or some bunch of total strangers on the other end of a computer that while good with research and stats (and that is an honest complement, not a slam) know abolutley nothing about the current trade envronment or the possibilties of making these trades? Hummmmmm.........I think you can figure out the correct answer.

Maybe they will abuse that trust and will have made a horrific blunder. Maybe the trade works out to be one fat wash. Maybe the trade becomes another building block towards success. Beats me, but again expereince in life tells me that what I think I can clearly see based on my VERY VERY VERY limited knowledge of what is going on behind the sceens may not be as it appears.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 12:32 AM
I think that you are completely over valueing Kearns and Lopez. Do you really think that Wayne K talked to the Nats only? Do you think he jumped at the first deal that Jimbo threw at him? Do you think that Wayne K knows what he is doing at all? Kearns and Lopez were about to become really expensive and really they are just average players so your whole argument is bupkis if you talk about value and a 60 million dollar payroll.
Look at the relievers dealt at the deadline last season and see what it took to get them. I don't think Wayne had to go get top shelf talent for the BP. I'm not saying he got top shelf, but he went and got two younger arms, which definitely caused the price to go up.

Last year, Matt Kata brought Tim Worrell. He ended up with a 4.11 ERA. Two minor league fringe prospects brought Villone. He ended up with a 4.08 ERA. What's wrong with taking some shots on guys like this? It's not like Wayne pulled down Mariano and Wagner here. Does anyone feel like Wayne really locked down the later innings with this trade? Everyone talks about "rubber armed" Majewski. Comparing him to Scott Sullivan. Hopefully he doesn't end up like Sullivan, out of baseball after the abuse handed to him by pitching so many innings. I have higher hopes for Bray, but I did also with Wagner. Let's wait and see what happens with him.

If Kearns and Lopez were 29 or 30, this trade would make more sense. These guys still have time to improve. Royce Clayton is an absolute bum. Sorry to say. The left side of the infield, currently, is one of the worst in baseball.

If WMP brought in Arroyo, AK and FeLo should have brought in a significant amt more than him. And I don't think that happened here. If the price was this high, then Kriv should have stood pat. I don't see them getting to the playoffs b/c of this deal. If he couldn't have gotten better value, he should have kept these guys and seen what would have happened in the offseason with them. Gotten some stopgap relievers for the time being. Signed some solid middle relief help in the winter. But this was highway robbery. Plain and simple.

SteelSD
07-16-2006, 03:27 AM
Without a doubt (in fact I was really bumbed that I didn't get to meet him tonight at the Reds Hall of Fame thing). But he also didn't take us "over the top" for yet another WS win in 77 did he. Again the point is that the while the "probablity" of winning another WS on paper looked good, in real life, it didn't happen.

It's really immaterial. You continue to be caught up in the idea that probability must equal certainty for probability to matter when evaluating a decision. That's just not the way it works.


Then why are a large number of posters blowing a gasket? Some blew a complete gasket before Kriv even explained his rationale behind the trade. They obviously feal that the outcome is certian....why else would they be so worked up? If they don't feal the outcome is certian, they I guess they like to make dire, dramatic posts just for kicks or attention. If the future isn't set in stone then let's all sit back a bit, and even through the trade doesn't make sense to you, let's let this thing unfold before we all run Krvi out of town on a rail.

You've been told NUMEROUS times that no one is positioning anything as "certain", but you keep bringing that concept. Will you stop? Ever?


Oh I understand probablity just fine. I've also been around the block enough times to know that probability and reality don't always mesh up. That just comes with experience, I suppose.

If you understood probability, you wouldn't type that paragraph because you'd understand that those using probability also understand that nothing is certain. I can't be any more clear on that and I've repeated it multiple times. There should be no need to repeat it again.


Yet the two relievers we acquired are also young and have the potential to develop into valuable tools, but of course most leave that out. And before you scream "small sample size" don't forget that AK has never player a full season without being hurt and Lopez as put up 1 whole good year SS (last year). So the "small sample size" argument fits all involved besides Clayton.

All you're attempting to position is the concept that "maybe" trumps "probably" in your world. It doesn't anywhere else. Bill Bray is a huge "maybe". I can tell you that he doesn't project as well as we're being told. Neither does Majewski. So color me unsurprised that he's had a couple rough nights thusfar.


Interestingly, both AK and Lopez had their positions "locked up" this year and had no threat of being benched at the first sign of trouble yet neither have really set the world on fire. No marked impovement inspite of the early job security. Good yes, "all-star-can't-afford-to-lose", no. I guess they'll make this marked, contiuned, probable improvement next year then.

None of my analysis (or really anyone else's) is centered around the concept that the Reds couldn't do without Felipe Lopez or Austin Kearns. Strawman #11 (maybe more). Both players have half a season at age 26 and you're calling it good mainly because you're looking for some reason to devalue the outgoing players in order to justify an awful trade. I see it for what it is and you're not the only one on the board doing it. It happens a lot because folks need to feel that their faith is justified. The difference is that I'm not a faith-based creature so I feel no need to justify a low probability gamble for players who simply don't project all that well. That's not about me. That's about the players.


So cut and paste where I suggested we just had to do something now and damn the cost. Good luck to you.

Um...ok:

Ltabner 7/14/06: Yep, we shoulda done nothing. Kept running Standridge, Yan, Burns, Hammons, Merker, Weathers and Coffee out there. Just said "we're done" for the year and set us off on yet another "rebuilding" year as we watch the team slowly fade from contention. Boy that would have been great.

Now, my one mistake may have been that I didn't understand that you might not realize what the true cost actually was and/or that you'd begin erroneously devaluing above-average young MLB starting position players to the point that they're worth basically average middle relievers and chaff after we've seen similar single players dealt for better returns and/or similar relievers acquired for less pretty consistently over time.

And I think I've already stated that the Reds needed to fix the pen. But the cost was far far too high for the return. And I post that because I understand how probability works.


Again, my point, is that if you do choose to "wait for that better deal" it may never come. In fact, DanO ended up with Milton because of this. I've never said we need to do something "just because" but a lot of people here forget the basics of logic sometimes when they say "we should wait" because they are assuming a better deal will definatley be available.

I've seen much better value returns from equitable players and much lower prices paid for equitable relievers. You have too and you know it.


If said deal doesn't happen you know what happens to the Reds? They are done, over, dead. Now this trade may not "push them over the top" either...I've never said whether it would or wouldn't. But BC and Kriv have made it clear that they want to win, and win now. So it's only logical to assume they judge the risk of waiting in todays market to be higher than the risk of making the deal. Who's judgement about the baseball trade market do I trust more....the guys in the trenches day to day (and an owner that knows something about building solid businesses) or some bunch of total strangers on the other end of a computer that while good with research and stats (and that is an honest complement, not a slam) know abolutley nothing about the current trade envronment or the possibilties of making these trades? Hummmmmm.........I think you can figure out the correct answer.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but they're most likely dead either way. But now they're dead with less production. And I've been right often enough to trust my own judgment- particularly after reading posts about Krivsky's rationale (the in-game interview he did) on the game thread today.

For example, one piece of Krivsky's reasoning stood out as being particularly two-dimensional. That was his comment about needing better pen performance to win the games the Reds should win in the late Innings. While that sounds good on the surface, we need to understand that the Reds just removed a sizeable chunk of the offense. When you do that, you see a Run value loss which ends up resulting in fewer "winnable" games in which you're ahead in the late Innings and fewer games in which you're further ahead in the late Innings.

The reality is that the Reds will most likely be ahead less when going to the pen and ahead by fewer runs less often when going to the pen. When you turn potential three-Run leads into two-Run leads and two-Run leads because you've diminished the offense, you're maximizing the probability that the probable pen performance improvement is rendered moot. The Reds most likely negatively impacted their offense. The only real question is "by how much"? They did not appreciatively improve their defense if they did at all.


Maybe they will abuse that trust and will have made a horrific blunder. Maybe the trade works out to be one fat wash. Maybe the trade becomes another building block towards success. Beats me, but again expereince in life tells me that what I think I can clearly see based on my VERY VERY VERY limited knowledge of what is going on behind the sceens may not be as it appears.

The best time to evaluate a decision you have no control over is immediately after the decision is made. If you'd focus more on probability rather than faith, you'd be able to realize that the trade was incredibly high-risk/low-reward. Those types of deals work out almost never.

Lacking probability-based analysis, we see things like (paraphrasing):

-"Well, we had to do something..."
-"Krivsky is a MLB General Manager so he must know what he's doing..."
-"Obviously the players traded away were only worth what the Reds got for them..."

And we can go on and on. Yet, we still should know that the Reds just made a low-probability swap. We don't want to know that. But we should. Makes what's most likely to happen less surprising.

Your trust has just been abused but either you don't know it or don't want to.

redsrule2500
07-16-2006, 05:02 AM
:eek: ....Maybe you should just write a book ;)

Jpup
07-16-2006, 05:24 AM
The more and more I think about it, I think Krivsky hurt this team pretty bad. I just can't wrap my mind around how the Reds are going to score enough runs to win ball games this year. Losing Kearns in the lineup is going to cost them a lot, I think.

Maybe it's just because they haven't scored many the last couple of days. They won and I'm glad about that, but Harang and Arroyo pitched very well. I'm afraid of what is going to happen when they give up a few runs. I hope Adam Dunn has been working out because he has a huge burden to carry the load the rest of the way.

GAC
07-16-2006, 05:47 AM
He also turned Boston down when they wanted Kearns in the Arroyo deal. He made them "settle" for WMP. To me that shows he felt he could get more for Kearns.

At that time you're probably right Mike. But wouldn't the "attitude" (or trade scenario) be quite different once you get into the season?


It appears to me this guy knows what he'd doing. Throw in the Phillips (which may be the biggest steal in baseball) and Ross moves, and I have no reason NOT to have faith in him.

He's done more to fix this team in 3-4 months than Dan O'Brien did in 3 years.

And that is the crux of it with me too. No one, in their wildest dreams, expected what we have seen so far. They would never think, in a million years, that we'd be in the thick of it come mid-July.

Even if we fall short this year, people's optimism about this organization has been bolstered by Castellini/Krivsky - regardless of even some of the latter moves that seem questionable.

I believe they know what needs to be done - what onjectives they need to accomplish - and no one can expect them to achieve that in one year. Not when we look at the shape this organization has been in over the last several years.

I'm impressed.

GAC
07-16-2006, 05:54 AM
The more and more I think about it, I think Krivsky hurt this team pretty bad. I just can't wrap my mind around how the Reds are going to score enough runs to win ball games this year. Losing Kearns in the lineup is going to cost them a lot, I think.

Only if Deno doesn't pan out. And I look at it as an opportunity to get Freel more playing time. Is that a bad thing?


Maybe it's just because they haven't scored many the last couple of days. They won and I'm glad about that, but Harang and Arroyo pitched very well. I'm afraid of what is going to happen when they give up a few runs. I hope Adam Dunn has been working out because he has a huge burden to carry the load the rest of the way.

They need to get EE back into this lineup for the remainder of the season. I don't think it's a "love thing" for the vets as much as it's simply some apprehension on Narron's part on simply wanting to try and improve on this INF D, which has been a liability for us this year.

Also - guys like Phillips and Jr are going through slumps right now. I believe they'll come around.

Guacarock
07-16-2006, 06:26 AM
If Kearns and Lopez were 29 or 30, this trade would make more sense. These guys still have time to improve.

If Bowden succeeds in recruiting Davey Johnson back to the game, then I wouldn't be surprised to see Kearns and Lopez rise to a higher level of performance. Johnson is a smart manager who would surround himself with the right coaches to train and inspire these young players.

Narron and his coaches didn't get that job done. Time will tell whether it was an impossible task to expect done right or whether we just had the wrong teachers.

One gauge to watch: Just how long EE rides the pines. Short-term, and the coaches could be sucking up to the brass, who want to win now, never mind the developmental consequences. But if EE is relegated to the scrapheaps as quickly as Kearns and Lopez, then it suggests: We have a more serious, lingering problem up top -- maybe involving unreasonable and rash expectations posed by ownership or our GM, maybe involving an inability on the part of our manager or coaches to connect with the players.

Small-market teams just don't win without having a successful formula to cultivate young talent. You can patch and fill with a Clayton or Castro, or for that matter, a Weathers or Griffey, but if you want to win consistently fielding an over-the-hill squad that's overpaid in relationship to current performance or likely future potential, you better be well-endowed like the Yankees.

Ltlabner
07-16-2006, 09:27 AM
You've been told NUMEROUS times that no one is positioning anything as "certain", but you keep bringing that concept. Will you stop? Ever?

Not until the trade proves itself out one way or another ;)


If you understood probability, you wouldn't type that paragraph because you'd understand that those using probability also understand that nothing is certain.

Taking your statement at face value, then I guess the reason for the complete hystaria and melodrama on the board in the wake of the trade is that some people here are hystarical and melodramatic. Because, as you claim, they know that nothing is for sure about the trade, but it sure is fun to freak out and claim the end of the world anyway. This was part of my original comments in the first post. Now, my one mistake may have been that I didn't understand that you might not realize what hysteria and melodrama really is.


Both players have half a season at age 26 and you're calling it good mainly because you're looking for some reason to devalue the outgoing players in order to justify an awful trade.

You are a lousy mindreader then if you believe this. I'm calling them good because that is what they are. Good ballplayers with promise.


Ltabner 7/14/06: Yep, we shoulda done nothing. Kept running Standridge, Yan, Burns, Hammons, Merker, Weathers and Coffee out there. Just said "we're done" for the year and set us off on yet another "rebuilding" year as we watch the team slowly fade from contention. Boy that would have been great.

Let me see...sarcasim, check. A desire to replace the horrific bullpen, check. A comment about being tired of rebuilding years, check. A statement that we should go out and get bullpen help at all costs....nope. But thanks for playing.


Now, my one mistake may have been that I didn't understand that you might not realize what the true cost actually was and/or that you'd begin erroneously devaluing above-average young MLB starting position players to the point that they're worth basically average middle relievers and chaff after we've seen similar single players dealt for better returns and/or similar relievers acquired for less pretty consistently over time.


The true cost to the team in terms of output is a huge gamble. I agree with you there and have never stated otherwise but a huge offense and crap pitching has not been a successful formula for a while now. Fantastic pitching and crap offense isn't good either. We will now (hopefully) be heading towards that happy medium.

And trades do not happen in a vacume either. We don't know what other moves are in the works. We do have some (allbeit limted amount) of tallent comming up (Voto, Bruce) that may or may not replace/exceede/fallshort of the current production. So just saying that the offence will always be the offense pre trade - AK and Lopez isn't realistic.

It's a change in philsophy for sure. Is the risk of not having a lead to hold higher/lower than the risk of the bullpen blowing the lead? It's that simple. Apparently it's a risk Kriv is willing to take. We know the results of the power offense crap pitching era.


The best time to evaluate a decision you have no control over is immediately after the decision is made. And the best time for an evaluation of a decision to be wrong is immediatley after the decision has been made.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 10:45 AM
He also turned Boston down when they wanted Kearns in the Arroyo deal. He made them "settle" for WMP. To me that shows he felt he could get more for Kearns.

He didn't get more for Kearns...he got much less, when you consider the entire haul received and the fact that he also traded Lopez and Wagner.


It appears to me this guy knows what he'd doing. Throw in the Phillips (which may be the biggest steal in baseball) and Ross moves, and I have no reason NOT to have faith in him.

He's done more to fix this team in 3-4 months than Dan O'Brien did in 3 years.

I agree, he has done some good things so far, but he hasn't reached bulletproof level in only a few months. Lopez sure looked good last year, didn't he? Phillips has been outstanding so far, but why can't he be the next FeLo? Ross also...it's funny how we have witnessed the rise and fall of Lopez but only a few people are equating that to Phillips. Ross also...same situation.

It is very true that the moves made for both Phillips and Ross were astute, to say the least. But I think luck had something to do with these as well. Krivsky made other "like" trades (Yan, the Cody Ross debacle) and those didn't fare that well.

While I agree that Kriv has done very well so far, we cannot treat him like a god just yet. Just my opinion.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 10:51 AM
I wasn't thinking that this trade allowed the $10-15M, but maybe it does

This trade helps here;
FeLO = $4-5M next season
AK = $4-5M next season
Replacment cost: TBD (Deno $350K, MI filler: Prospects or cheap vet)

$7-9M more flexibility next season.

Cost Opportunity saved;

Majewski + Bray = $750K combined (and under control until 2011/2012 respectively)

2 above average setup FA vets in the offseason: $1M for fodder or $2-3M+ over multiple years each for anyone that's at all above average. (Plus a possible loss of a draft pick if you actually go find someone decent).

You save 1) on the escalating salaries of Kearns + Lopez (granted there was no urgency to get them off the books until the offseason) and 2) on the opportunity cost saved for not having to find + pony up (as lots of others always want good setup type relief) for a couple of above average FA pen arms in the offseason.

Salary focus can become: Starting pitching (hard), a pen around the three young setup guys + maybe a cheap Standridge, a solid MI part for 2B (could be a vet -- shouldn't be hard to find), a solid 4th OF backup (always on the market).
You don't save the escalating salaries unless the FO already committed to themselves that payroll was going up next year. No one here knows that so no one can say that money was actually saved. Until $ is actually committed by the club, that is not savings.

GAC
07-16-2006, 11:30 AM
He didn't get more for Kearns...he got much less, when you consider the entire haul received and the fact that he also traded Lopez and Wagner.



I agree, he has done some good things so far, but he hasn't reached bulletproof level in only a few months. Lopez sure looked good last year, didn't he? Phillips has been outstanding so far, but why can't he be the next FeLo? Ross also...it's funny how we have witnessed the rise and fall of Lopez but only a few people are equating that to Phillips. Ross also...same situation.

It is very true that the moves made for both Phillips and Ross were astute, to say the least. But I think luck had something to do with these as well. Krivsky made other "like" trades (Yan, the Cody Ross debacle) and those didn't fare that well.

While I agree that Kriv has done very well so far, we cannot treat him like a god just yet. Just my opinion.

But no one is treating him like a god, or that he is bullet-proof. Many have just decided to hold off on "judging" this current trade until we see the tangible results/effects from it - not projections/probabilities, which have sent some over the deep end.

Wait and see basically.

Should Krivksy - because the pitching market is about as bare as old mother Hubbard's cupboard - stood pat, basically wrote of this season, and waited till the off-season?

I have stated on a few other threads that this may be a problem that can't be fixed until the off-season because.... I don't want him to sell-off or gut this team, and make a rash trade, just for the sake of a shot this year.

Some contend that this trade was such a trade (rash). I don't. I personally think Lopez and Ears have been over-valued by some, and we do have players in the system as options in those positions (Deno, BP, Freel).

I'm not gonna sit back and project or predict how the young arms we acquired are gonna perform for this team.

All I know is that the market is bare, we and everyone else needs arms, and they are young, unproven arms.

Guys like Lopez and Ears were expendable IMO.

Did we pay a higher price then expected? Possibly so. But again - the market dictated that.

But right now, everyone is basing their evaluations of this trade on how players traded and players received are gonna project out to.

And while I respect that "science of probabilities", it's not writen in cement with me. ;)

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 11:54 AM
If this deal was made at the deadline, it would make more sense. This looked like a panic deal to me, playing more for the now than for the future. I love the youth of these relievers, but the drop off from Lopez to Clayton is Grand Canyonish. Everyone talking about how great of a fielder Clayton is. I've never heard that until Kriv and Narron started playing damage control on the trade.

And everytime I hear someone say "In Wayne I trust" or saying that Krivsky has been great so far so no one has any right to judge this trade, I think that he has reached bulletproof status right now.

Matt700wlw
07-16-2006, 01:02 PM
If this deal was made at the deadline, it would make more sense. This looked like a panic deal to me, playing more for the now than for the future. I love the youth of these relievers, but the drop off from Lopez to Clayton is Grand Canyonish. Everyone talking about how great of a fielder Clayton is. I've never heard that until Kriv and Narron started playing damage control on the trade.

And everytime I hear someone say "In Wayne I trust" or saying that Krivsky has been great so far so no one has any right to judge this trade, I think that he has reached bulletproof status right now.

Standing pat would have gotten them nowhere except sunk.

Greatest trade in the world? No. Needed trade? Yes.

If they're still in this thing in 14 more days, which I have no reason to believe they won't be, another deal wouldn't shock me.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 01:04 PM
Standing pat would have gotten them nowhere except sunk.

Greatest trade in the world? No. Needed trade? Yes.

If they're still in this thing in 14 more days, which I have no reason to believe they won't be, another deal wouldn't shock me.
Unless this off season brings a SS/2B, next season might be a problem as well.

westofyou
07-16-2006, 01:10 PM
Lopez sure looked good last year, didn't he?

At the plate yes, but did he ever look really comfortable in the field?

Were the Reds from Dan O and Miley to Narron and now Krivsky ever really enamored with Lopez as a infield leader? As the THE infield leader....the quarterback of the Reds?

I keep trying to figure out why Lopez was dealt and it keeps coming back to the Reds getting Aurilia, Womack and Castro and trying to fit them into the infield despite their batting warts and declining skills, all I keep coming to is Earl Weavers Ninth Law:


"The key step for an infielder is the first one---to the left or right, but before the ball is hit.

(Emaphasis by Earl.)

Narron said this about Clayton


"Royce knows how to play the game the right way," Narron said. "He's a pro. We've got to make the routine plays. We've got to play solid defense. You need a shortstop that can take charge of the infield. Royce is that guy."

My take is the Reds had no confidence in Lopez as a MLB SS, period. It was never really there last year and now it's completely not there.

You can argue aboutwhat they got for him and his batting and Clayton's fielding, and what else was on the market.... all are valid arguments.

But the Reds for whatever reason decided that they would not win this year with the bullpen they had and they also pretty much told me they'd never win with Lopez at shortstop.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 01:19 PM
At the plate yes, but did he ever look really comfortable in the field?

Were the Reds from Dan O and Miley to Narron and now Krivsky ever really enamored with Lopez as a infield leader? As the THE infield leader....the quarterback of the Reds?
The comparison was with Phillips...Lopez was a prodigy last season. I was trying to say that until we christen Wayne as the greatest, we cannot use Phillips as proof of that for a while. We all loved FeLo last season. We all love Phillips this season. Things can change quickly, and Lopez is proof of that.

Matt700wlw
07-16-2006, 01:28 PM
Unless this off season brings a SS/2B, next season might be a problem as well.

Phillips at short would be my choice. 2B could be a FA target.

VR
07-16-2006, 01:31 PM
Were the Reds from Dan O and Miley to Narron and now Krivsky ever really enamored with Lopez as a infield leader? As the THE infield leader....the quarterback of the Reds?


Larkin = Montana
Lopez = Leaf

It's a good thing for Felipe that mental errors can't be calculated.

PuffyPig
07-16-2006, 01:36 PM
You don't save the escalating salaries unless the FO already committed to themselves that payroll was going up next year. No one here knows that so no one can say that money was actually saved. Until $ is actually committed by the club, that is not savings.

That's not really true.

No matter what the payroll, it's money saved. Even if the Front Office is going the slash the payroll to $40M next year, that's money that doesn't have to be slashed.

If the payroll is to remain neutral, that's money saved. It's about $10M savings anyway you cut it.

reds44
07-16-2006, 01:58 PM
Steve Phillips on BBTN just said this was the most 1 sided deal he has seen in a decade.

Not that I care what the retread GM says, but maybe some of you will.

redsrule2500
07-16-2006, 02:00 PM
Every commentator I have heard has said it was rediculously one sided adn that Jim Bowden "Does it again"...

NJReds
07-16-2006, 02:03 PM
Steve Phillips on BBTN just said this was the most 1 sided deal he has seen in a decade.

Not that I care what the retread GM says, but maybe some of you will.

In a radio interview, yesterday, Phillips tried to goad Yanks GM Brian Cashman into slamming the trade, too. Cash would have none of it only saying that on the surface the price seemed steep (giving up two everyday players) but that the Reds also got two very good young arms.

MWM
07-16-2006, 02:04 PM
Steve Phillips on BBTN just said this was the most 1 sided deal he has seen in a decade.

Knowing Steve Phillips thinks it was a bad deal for the Reds has me rethinking my opposition to it. :devil:

NJReds
07-16-2006, 02:05 PM
If this deal was made at the deadline, it would make more sense. This looked like a panic deal to me, playing more for the now than for the future.

It's amazing how much more WK got in return for WMP (Arroyo) than Kearns and Lopez.

NJReds
07-16-2006, 02:06 PM
Knowing Steve Phillips thinks it was a bad deal for the Reds has me rethinking my opposition to it. :devil:

Kazmir for Zambrano was much worse, IMO. (I know Phillips didn't pull the trigger on that one, but he should be familiar with it.)

GAC
07-16-2006, 02:11 PM
Knowing Steve Phillips thinks it was a bad deal for the Reds has me rethinking my opposition to it. :devil:

:lol:

Yeah - who cares what Steve Phillips thinks?

Wasn't this the guy who at one time had one of the top payrolls in MLB.... yet put together one of the losingest teams? ;)

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 02:12 PM
That's not really true.

No matter what the payroll, it's money saved. Even if the Front Office is going the slash the payroll to $40M next year, that's money that doesn't have to be slashed.

If the payroll is to remain neutral, that's money saved. It's about $10M savings anyway you cut it.
I think you're missing the point. There are some posts out there saying that this money that will not be paid to Lopez and Kearns will now be used to get some players next season. That is not a guarantee. That's like dealing Bailey right now and saying that the FO will have $10 million extra in 2014 to spend.

MWM
07-16-2006, 02:12 PM
Kazmir for Zambrano was much worse, IMO. (I know Phillips didn't pull the trigger on that one, but he should be familiar with it.)

Kazmir/Zambrano and Liriano-Nathan/Pierzynski are two of the worst trades I can recall in my lifetime, both happening in the last few years. While I don't like this trade at all, it certainly doesn not belong in the the same category as those two.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 02:13 PM
Kazmir/Zambrano and Liriano-Nathan/Pierzynski are two of the worst trades I can recall in my lifetime, both happening in the last few years. While I don't like this trade at all, it certainly doesn not belong in the the same category as those two.
The diff btw this deal and the Liriano deal is this one is awful from the start and the Liriano deal came to be awful over time, mostly due to the progression of Liriano and Nathan's success as closer.

Eric_Davis
07-16-2006, 03:03 PM
He's done more to fix this team in 3-4 months than Dan O'Brien did in 3 years.

Ain't that the truth!

oneupper
07-16-2006, 03:19 PM
Well, Hi guys...

I just got back from a Cruise and was met with this trade and a three game win streak by the REDS.

I was shocked, amazed, bewildered and befuddled.

Don't know what to think...so, GO REDS!

Eric_Davis
07-16-2006, 03:39 PM
The diff btw this deal and the Liriano deal is this one is awful from the start and the Liriano deal came to be awful over time, mostly due to the progression of Liriano and Nathan's success as closer.

How can you say it's awful?

How many times have you personally witnessed Thompson, Bray, Harris, and Majewski play baseball?

You don't posess enough personal information to make that sort of a judgement, nor does anyone else on this board (to say it's awful).

oneupper
07-16-2006, 03:40 PM
I believe this trade merits a Poll...can someone start it?

SteelSD
07-16-2006, 05:17 PM
How can you say it's awful?

How many times have you personally witnessed Thompson, Bray, Harris, and Majewski play baseball?

You don't posess enough personal information to make that sort of a judgement, nor does anyone else on this board (to say it's awful).

Just wondering, does your insurance agent demand to ride with you for a week or two before deciding whether or not you write you a policy?

Using your logic, he sure should.

OldXOhio
07-16-2006, 05:29 PM
How can you say it's awful?

How many times have you personally witnessed Thompson, Bray, Harris, and Majewski play baseball?

You don't posess enough personal information to make that sort of a judgement, nor does anyone else on this board (to say it's awful).

I think what you meant to say is while it doesn't look like an equitable trade at the outset, to truly call it awful will require some additional time and witness to how these players progress?

There's certainly a large enough sample at this time for some to have the "awful" opinion. What might lessen that label to a degree is what we see happen over the next few weeks in this seller's market. Perhaps the Reds have set forth a short-term standard that other sellers will now expect potential buyers to live by.