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View Full Version : Does Hatteberg Stay?



DunnFan44
07-13-2006, 09:05 PM
I say nope. I see him and a veteren pitcher leaving the REDS. Also would not be suprised if I see Jason Larue gone, for a draft pick or cash or that famous PTBNL. Please give me your thoughts!!!

"Give Narron and Krivsky extensions and a week later see what happens!!"

Jpup
07-13-2006, 09:07 PM
I say nope. I see him and a veteren pitcher leaving the REDS. Also would not be suprised if I see Jason Larue gone, for a draft pick or cash or that famous PTBNL. Please give me your thoughts!!!

"Give Narron and Krivisky extensions and a week later see what happens!!"

Why in the *&%! would they trade Hatteberg?

edabbs44
07-13-2006, 09:08 PM
I say nope. I see him and a veteren pitcher leaving the REDS. Also would not be suprised if I see Jason Larue gone, for a draft pick or cash or that famous PTBNL. Please give me your thoughts!!!

"Give Narron and Krivsky extensions and a week later see what happens!!"
Draft picks can't be traded in MLB.

goreds2
07-13-2006, 09:10 PM
Scotty will probably stay until the end of the season (in Nov. :) )

I see LaRue having a very SOLID/GOOD second half. The guy has been injuried. (Can you imagine being injuried and your occupation is squating?)

He will be healthy from now until November.

lucky bugle boy
07-13-2006, 09:27 PM
Hatteberg will not be traded. No one else to play first as Dunn shows no interest, Aurilia just won't everyday, he'll play 3rd, short 2nd occasionally, as much as some would like it, Encarnacion is not going there. And Griffey definitely not going there either; Valentin can play there once in a blue moon, but everyday? Lord help us if that ever happens, especially against LHP. Don't often see switch hitters flail around miserably from one side of the plate as Valentin does batting right handed. Anyway, doesn't make any sense to trade Hat.

Larue? Talk about selling low. After his first half he is worth very little, esp. with the amount of $ he makes. Now, a gutsy move may be to move Ross, that would be selling high IMO. Don't think Kriv will do it, though, as Ross is his guy. I'm predicting that if Larue gets any kind of playing time in the second half he will put up quite adequate numbers.

DunnFan44
07-13-2006, 10:19 PM
Thanks for the insight!!! And sorry about the Draft picks thing, I dont know what I was thinking....lol
Some good info.

Rob Dicken
07-13-2006, 10:52 PM
Well, I believe after the first half, with Ross's performance, they are NOT going to trade him. He's still young, and has the potential to hit 30-35 homers a year if playing every day.

LaRue is a great defensive catcher, but he's ALWAYS lacked in the offensive department. I don't believe the guy has broke .260 his entire time in the major leagues.

If another trade were to take place, I believe they would package a few of the guys just received in the Nationals deal, with LaRue. The Reds have quite a bit of payroll to work with, so we'll see what happens.

CrackerJack
07-13-2006, 11:37 PM
Hatte's keepin' it warm for Votto. There's no reason to trade him, he's having a very good season obviously.

j

Unassisted
07-13-2006, 11:53 PM
Keep Hatteburg. Keep LaRue. Find a trading partner for Valentin. He's the most expendable part now on this team with a healthy LaRue.

fisch11
07-14-2006, 12:16 AM
Hatteberg is one of the reasons Wayne got his extension, so NO Hatteberg does not get dealt. Now, LaRue is the other end of the spectrum. He has no value and is expendible to the Reds....he may become part of a package deal similar to Ryan Wagner was in this trade. Ryan's value isn't jack either.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:17 AM
Where would Hatty go?

reds44
07-14-2006, 12:18 AM
People won't give you equal value for what Hatte is worth to the Reds.

Jpup
07-14-2006, 12:19 AM
Where would Hatty go?

San Francisco or Oakland?

flyer85
07-14-2006, 12:20 AM
People won't give you equal value for what Hatte is worth to the Reds.I feel safe predicting a big dropoff in the 2nd half for Hatty. He was well over his 90th percentile PECOTA in the first half. In addition, he completely tanked in the 2nd half last year.

lucky bugle boy
07-14-2006, 12:22 AM
Well, I believe after the first half, with Ross's performance, they are NOT going to trade him. He's still young, and has the potential to hit 30-35 homers a year if playing every day.

LaRue is a great defensive catcher, but he's ALWAYS lacked in the offensive department. I don't believe the guy has broke .260 his entire time in the major leagues.

If another trade were to take place, I believe they would package a few of the guys just received in the Nationals deal, with LaRue. The Reds have quite a bit of payroll to work with, so we'll see what happens.

I don't think Ross will stay at this pace, unfortunately. Krivsky saw something good and got it, but I can't imagine even he expected him to be as good as he has, and I doubt he expects him to keep the pace. I'd love to keep Ross, b/c I think that he will be above average. However, as has been posted often on here, Larue has been above average offensively for several years.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 11:40 AM
------------------G---AB---R---H---2B---3B---HR---RBI---TB---BB---SO---SB---CS---OBP----SLG----AVG
Career Totals----68--2158 254-519-125---6----80---295---896--185--626--11---11--.324---.415---.241


ABOVE average? Would you say an average catcher hits .230 or .240? If so, he's .001 above that his entire career so far.

Jason LaRue is far from an offensive catcher.

Ross hasn't had the chance to play in the majors with very many teams, and get the playing time he has with the reds. He's just as young as LaRue, and he has PLENTY more power.

Jason LaRue is the expendable one, not Ross.

markymark69
07-14-2006, 04:26 PM
I would doubt that he would be traded despite the fact that he was signed to a one-year contract. Having said that, nothing would surprise me after yesterday.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 04:31 PM
I feel safe predicting a big dropoff in the 2nd half for Hatty. He was well over his 90th percentile PECOTA in the first half. In addition, he completely tanked in the 2nd half last year.

OTOH, he's benefitted tremendously from playing at GABP, which will continue to help fuel his productivity in the second half of the season. He's hitting over .070 better at home than on the road, and slugging a full .060 better:


SPLIT AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 114 17 39 5 0 5 16 22 1 8 .342 .443 .518 .960
Away 129 20 36 14 0 3 12 20 2 9 .279 .382 .457 .839
Add into that his platooning with RA, which limits his ABs to situations where he can be productive (v. RHPs), and you've got the recipe for at least some continued success.

Having said that, I'll be shocked if he replicates his first half OPS.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2006, 04:42 PM
ABOVE average? Would you say an average catcher hits .230 or .240? If so, he's .001 above that his entire career so far.

Jason LaRue is far from an offensive catcher.

Ross hasn't had the chance to play in the majors with very many teams, and get the playing time he has with the reds. He's just as young as LaRue, and he has PLENTY more power.

Jason LaRue is the expendable one, not Ross.

Ross is three years younger to the day, and many years younger as far as the arbitration/free agency clock is concerned.

I do believe that Ross will regress a bit, but not to the extent that LaRue is much better. Not to mention, Ross makes a nickel for every dollar Mr. Larue makes. If payroll flexibilty is what this organization is shooting for LaRue need to go. Soon.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 04:47 PM
Ross is three years younger to the day, and many years younger as far as the arbitration/free agency clock is concerned.

I do believe that Ross will regress a bit, but not to the extent that LaRue is much better. Not to mention, Ross makes a nickel for every dollar Mr. Larue makes. If payroll flexibilty is what this organization is shooting for LaRue need to go. Soon.

I've gotta agree 100%.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 04:52 PM
ABOVE average? Would you say an average catcher hits .230 or .240? If so, he's .001 above that his entire career so far.

Jason LaRue is far from an offensive catcher.


I'd say that each of the last two years he's been among the upper-half in OPS among catchers w/ more than 200 PA. He was 15th in 2004, 5th in 2005. Also been Top-10 in extra-base hits (among catchers) for each of the last 3 years.

That seems to be, by definition, above average.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 04:54 PM
I'd say that each of the last two years he's been among the upper-half in OPS among catchers w/ more than 200 PA. He was 15th in 2004, 5th in 2005.

That seems to be, by definition, above average.

If that's the only thing ABOVE AVERAGE, that you're worried about, then this argument is settled.

Because the rest of his stats, offensively, are pretty pitiful. I've seen pitchers have better averages.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2006, 04:57 PM
If that's the only thing ABOVE AVERAGE, that you're worried about, then this argument is settled.

Because the rest of his stats, offensively, are pretty pitiful. I've seen pitchers have better averages.


Offensively, OPS matters. And Larue has had a better than average OPS (for a catcher) for some time now.

With that said, I won't miss him if we get out of the 5 million he is owed next year. I think Ross can put up the same OPS, with a limited dropoff defensively.

and all for 300-500K.

RichRed
07-14-2006, 04:58 PM
If that's the only thing ABOVE AVERAGE, that you're worried about, then this argument is settled.

Because the rest of his stats, offensively, are pretty pitiful. I've seen pitchers have better averages.

Since OPS is a much better indicator of offensive production than batting average, I'd say you're right, the argument is settled.

Who are the 15 catchers who are better offensively over the past few years than Larue?

Dunner44
07-14-2006, 05:01 PM
I think most of us have agreed that LaRue is highly expendable, and would be a good cog to move. It frees up room for that extra pitcher/IF/Of that we would like to carry on the roster, and gives Javy a few more starts, which is fine as long as he's used based on the starting pitching matchup, not for the pitcher. Plus we dump LaRue's contract. The only problem is that every single team knows what we know... that LaRue is expendable once Ross is back in action.

Here's a thought. If Ross's injury lingers a few more days, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him DLed retroactive to the injury. That would clear room on the roster for the Lizard and give LaRue a few more games to prove himself to other teams that he has recovered from his knee/slump early in the season. Ross's injury was before the all star game, so his stay would only be a couple games before he could come back, but that may be enough to move LaRue.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2006, 05:03 PM
I think most of us have agreed that LaRue is highly expendable, and would be a good cog to move. It frees up room for that extra pitcher/IF/Of that we would like to carry on the roster, and gives Javy a few more starts, which is fine as long as he's used based on the starting pitching matchup, not for the pitcher. Plus we dump LaRue's contract. The only problem is that every single team knows what we know... that LaRue is expendable once Ross is back in action.

Here's a thought. If Ross's injury lingers a few more days, I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see him DLed retroactive to the injury. That would clear room on the roster for the Lizard and give LaRue a few more games to prove himself to other teams that he has recovered from his knee/slump early in the season. Ross's injury was before the all star game, so his stay would only be a couple games before he could come back, but that may be enough to move LaRue.


Well said.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:10 PM
Offensively, OPS matters. And Larue has had a better than average OPS (for a catcher) for some time now.

With that said, I won't miss him if we get out of the 5 million he is owed next year. I think Ross can put up the same OPS, with a limited dropoff defensively.

and all for 300-500K.

Yeah, it does, but he hits in the eight spot which doesn't help. And not to mention, his strikeouts counter his OPS.

He's got a strikeout ratio of about 125 strikeouts in 350 at bats, considering that's his avergae at bats per season. That's just as bad as Adam Dunn, and he's definitely not as good as a producer.

gonelong
07-14-2006, 05:15 PM
And not to mention, his strikeouts counter his OPS.

I am being totally serious here. Could you explain what you mean by this?

GL

flyer85
07-14-2006, 05:16 PM
And not to mention, his strikeouts counter his OPS.We have had a new metric invented before our eyes. OPS-K

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 05:19 PM
We have had a new metric invented before our eyes. OPS-K
Well, we've got KRISPy...maybe now we need K-OPS...

Because, honestly, who loves KRISPy Kremes more than K-OPS?

flyer85
07-14-2006, 05:22 PM
Well, we've got KRISPy...maybe now we need K-OPS...

Because, honestly, who loves KRISPy Kremes more than K-OPS?So we will have Keystone KOPS eating KRISPy Kremes?

NJReds
07-14-2006, 05:23 PM
People won't give you equal value for what Hatte is worth to the Reds.

We didn't get equal value for Kearns and Lopez, either.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:25 PM
Since OPS is a much better indicator of offensive production than batting average, I'd say you're right, the argument is settled.

Who are the 15 catchers who are better offensively over the past few years than Larue?

Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, V. Martinez, R. Hernandez, I. Rodriguez, Javy Lopez, Michael Barrett, Mike Lieberthal, Paul LoDuca, Johnny Estrada, AJ Pierzynski, Jason Kendall, Toby Hall....

All with better averages, and better offensively than Jason LaRue besides hitting doubles....then you're looking at LaRue being #5 among catchers within the past 3 years. But that's really it....every other major category, he's ranked #10 or below.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:29 PM
I am being totally serious here. Could you explain what you mean by this?

GL

He either doubles, walks, or strikesout. Try telling me that's 'above average,' considering he strikes out about 125 times on average for 350 at bats....

KronoRed
07-14-2006, 05:30 PM
A strike out is just another out, I know I'd prefer a strike out to a double play out, or a ground out that might eliminate the lead runner

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:31 PM
We have had a new metric invented before our eyes. OPS-K

Quit harrassing me, seriously.

flyer85
07-14-2006, 05:36 PM
Quit harrassing me, seriously.I was giving you credit, a new metric isn't invented every day. It may soon rival KRISPy on this board. :beerme:

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:36 PM
A strike out is just another out, I know I'd prefer a strike out to a double play out, or a ground out that might eliminate the lead runner

True. But, you're giving them an out by striking out. I'd rather have players make contact and put the ball in play as opposed to getting up to the plate and whiffing.

dabvu2498
07-14-2006, 05:39 PM
A strike out is just another out
I'm not wanting to hi-jack this thread any further, but I'd say that's already blown to Hades.

So... if that's true... why are we so concrened with pitchers' strikeouts?

gonelong
07-14-2006, 05:41 PM
He either doubles, walks, or strikesout. Try telling me that's 'above average,' considering he strikes out about 125 times on average for 350 at bats....

I am not interested in this for the moment ...

Originally Posted by Rob Dicken
And not to mention, his strikeouts counter his OPS.

I am specifically requesting that you elaborate a bit about how his strikeouts counter his OPS. Sincerely.

GL

NoColonBoy
07-14-2006, 05:41 PM
Man, LaRue is such a lightning rod on this site.

LaRue is a streaky hitter who does produce for periods. He probably is among the top half catchers offensively. That doesn't make him worth the $4.5 million per year for which Dim signed him. We saw the catchers market with Ramon Hernandez--who wouldn't take him in a heartbeat over LaRue--the best he could do was a one year, $4.0 million deal with the Os.

LaRue is adequate defensively. Personally, I can't stand to watch him, though. Look at his mechanics--he's always leaning, he's got terrible balance, he "cheats" (by leaning on his back foot) so he can get into position to throw, he doesn't frame pitches well at all or block them particularly well. He's an okay catcher worth around $2 million annually in crazy baseball economics. I don't think people would have an issue with him if that's what he was making.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:44 PM
I was giving you credit, a new metric isn't invented every day. It may soon rival KRISPy on this board. :beerme:

You're either:
A) Being a smartass like you have in every other thread with me.
B) Being a smartass like you have in every other thread with me.
C) All of the above.

Quit harrassing me.

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 05:44 PM
I'm not wanting to hi-jack this thread any further, but I'd say that's already blown to Hades.

So... if that's true... why are we so concrened with pitchers' strikeouts?

They correlate to different things. The same event can be predictive of different things, it just depends on what you're trying to ask it to do.

For hitters, how much he strikes out tells you little else about his overall productivity, his RC, his VORP, his OPS, etc.

For pitchers, strikeouts tell you lots about how his ERA is, what his BABIP his, what his DIPS ERA is, what his VORP is. What kind of pticher he is -- his effectiveness.

They're measuring different things because the skill set involved to THORW a strikeout is completely different than the skill set predisposed to striking out for hitters.

Look at it this way:
Land value in a neighborhood is a good metric of a lot of things -- it tells you about crime rates, school performance level, and tax rates. It's a very good predictor for things like that.

However, land value is a poor predictor for things like, say, pet ownership. There's likely a very low correlation between how wealthy you are and how many pets you own -- people of all socioeconomic backgrounds own pets and you'd likely find that there was no way of predicting one (pet ownership) from the other (land value)

Same metric (land ownership) -- but different usefulness depending on what you want it to do.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 05:48 PM
I am not interested in this for the moment ...

Originally Posted by Rob Dicken
And not to mention, his strikeouts counter his OPS.

I am specifically requesting that you elaborate a bit about how his strikeouts counter his OPS. Sincerely.

GL


On Base + Slugging.

He's on base by doubles or walks. His slugging is based nearly on doubles, and the 9-15 homers he hits a YEAR. If hits and walks work into OPS, his strikeouts COUNTER those, because he strikesout just as much as his hits and walks combined during each season.

So, he's hurting this team just as much as he is helping them.

dabvu2498
07-14-2006, 05:52 PM
For pitchers, strikeouts tell you lots about how his ERA is, what his BABIP his, what his DIPS ERA is, what his VORP is. What kind of pticher he is -- his effectiveness.

They're measuring different things because the skill set involved to THORW a strikeout is completely different than the skill set predisposed to striking out for hitters.
Could you explain your POV on the correlation between pitcher's strikeouts and ERA. And BABIP also.

And if it's valuable for a pitcher to have a skill set that allows him to strikeout a high number of batters, wouldn't it also be valuable for a hitter to have a skills et avoid strikeouts?

Caveat Emperor
07-14-2006, 05:52 PM
On Base + Slugging.

He's on base by doubles or walks. His slugging is based nearly on doubles, and the 9-15 homers he hits a YEAR. If hits and walks work into OPS, his strikeouts COUNTER those, because he strikesout just as much as his hits and walks combined during each season.

So, he's hurting this team just as much as he is helping them.

A strikeout adds an additional out to the total for an inning.

How's that any different than weak groundout to second and why should it matter more than the weak groundout does?

Shouldn't the pop-fly out in foul territory also be counted against OPS? It's just as bad as a strikeout -- no runners advance, nothing happens.

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 06:06 PM
A strikeout adds an additional out to the total for an inning.

How's that any different than weak groundout to second and why should it matter more than the weak groundout does?

Shouldn't the pop-fly out in foul territory also be counted against OPS? It's just as bad as a strikeout -- no runners advance, nothing happens.

Good points. A weak groundout can advance a runner. A strikeout can't unless it's a pass ball, and in the major leagues that rarely happens. It's more lkely for a weak ground ball to advance a runner, as opposed to a strikeout.

And a foul-out should count against it. Which it happens to every batter.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-14-2006, 06:14 PM
A weak ground out can also produce a double play.

Probably at the same rate as advancing the runner.

So unless you are intending to advance the runner (bunt, hit and run) a weak ground out is pretty much the same as a strike out.

Speaking of strike outs. There is actually a correlation between the teams that score the most runs and the teams the strike out the most. Take the Reds of 2005. 4th in all of baseball in runs scored (820). 19th in team batting average (.261). What about strikeouts? Numero uno. The Big Red Machine teams of 1975 and 1976? 1975-1st in the major's with 840 runs scored. 2nd in OPS and believe it or not 4th in strikeouts. 1976? 1st in runs scored with 857 and #1 in OPS and 2nd in team K's.

RichRed
07-14-2006, 06:34 PM
A weak ground out can also produce a double play.

Probably at the same rate as advancing the runner.

So unless you are intending to advance the runner (bunt, hit and run) a weak ground out is pretty much the same as a strike out.

Speaking of strike outs. There is actually a correlation between the teams that score the most runs and the teams the strike out the most. Take the Reds of 2005. 4th in all of baseball in runs scored (820). 19th in team batting average (.261). What about strikeouts? Numero uno. The Big Red Machine teams of 1975 and 1976? 1975-1st in the major's with 840 runs scored. 2nd in OPS and believe it or not 4th in strikeouts. 1976? 1st in runs scored with 857 and #1 in OPS and 2nd in team K's.

Yep. Teams that strike out a lot tend to see a lot of pitches, which works the opposing pitchers more, which leads to increased run scoring.

Jpup
07-14-2006, 06:55 PM
On Base + Slugging.

He's on base by doubles or walks. His slugging is based nearly on doubles, and the 9-15 homers he hits a YEAR. If hits and walks work into OPS, his strikeouts COUNTER those, because he strikesout just as much as his hits and walks combined during each season.

So, he's hurting this team just as much as he is helping them.

:laugh:

Rob Dicken
07-14-2006, 09:13 PM
:laugh:

Why's that funny?


Giving the other teams outs, isn't what I would call helping the team, especially in the part of the line-up he's usually in.

Striking out may work a pitcher, but most pitchers these days can go an excess of 100-120 pitches on any given night.

If a pitcher throws 5 pitches to a batter, 3 outs per inning, and pitches 7 innings and you keep striking out and don't score, you're going to be fighting to get back into the game in the late innings. You want to attack a pitcher early, not in the late innings.

gonelong
07-15-2006, 01:19 AM
On Base + Slugging.

He's on base by doubles or walks. His slugging is based nearly on doubles, and the 9-15 homers he hits a YEAR. If hits and walks work into OPS, his strikeouts COUNTER those, because he strikesout just as much as his hits and walks combined during each season.

So, he's hurting this team just as much as he is helping them.

I guess I see the point you are trying to make (I don't agree with it), it just didn't make any sense to me as OPS takes into account all the outs a player makes (OBP) so a strikeout cannot "counter his OPS".

It may lower OPS, but can not counter it.

Thanks for the explanation.

GL

Rob Dicken
07-15-2006, 01:44 AM
I guess I see the point you are trying to make (I don't agree with it), it just didn't make any sense to me as OPS takes into account all the outs a player makes (OBP) so a strikeout cannot "counter his OPS".

It may lower OPS, but can not counter it.

Thanks for the explanation.

GL

Thanks for not being an a-hole about it, like other posters.

gonelong
07-15-2006, 01:52 AM
Thanks for not being an a-hole about it, like other posters.

I think that might make a good signature for me.

"At least he wasn't an a-hole, and he rarely peed in the shower - on purpose."

:)

GL

Rob Dicken
07-15-2006, 09:35 AM
I think that might make a good signature for me.

"At least he wasn't an a-hole, and he rarely peed in the shower - on purpose."

:)

GL

Hahaha.

crazybob60
07-15-2006, 09:55 AM
I'd say Hatteberg stays until the end of the season maybe half of next year until Votto is somewhat ready for the pros and then Votto takes over full-time.