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View Full Version : In-depth look at '07 and beyond



Shaknb8k
07-14-2006, 12:10 AM
I was bound and determined to figure out why Krivsky did this trade, so I decided to look at a bigger picture. I believe the main reason the trade was made was for this season because our bullpen is awful and we have a lot of offense and no pitching. Did I think we would have gotten a starter out of Lopez and Kearns; Yes but we didnít. That makes me think there was a larger picture to this trade than just bullpen help. Let me start out and say that in no way do I think this is a salary dump. So here we go.

Iíve done some research into some salary numbers for next season. Feel free to critique any of these numbers. Many of you all know more about arbitration figures and things like that. The dollar figures are in millions and for some it is the correct price and for some it is my estimates so look over it and correct me if you see something wrong. I will put an * by the players whose salary figure I know and did not estimate.

I have looked over the 25-man and 40-man rosters and come up with a list of players who I think will be on the team next year no matter what. (Unless they are traded which as you all know is defiantly a possibility). I found 9 pitchers that will be on the 25-Man roster going into next year.
Starters:
Milton- $9.0*
Arroyo- $3.8*
Harang- $4.0 (I will admit Iím clueless on what he will get paid)
Claussen- $.47
Ramirez- $.5
Relievers:
Majewski- $.4
Belisle- $.44
Coffey- $.5
Brey- $.33
I hope and pray our rotation doesnít look like that next year and I figure some of those starters will move to the bullpen when pitchers are signed or traded for.

I also looked into the salaries of the hitters on the team.
C: LaRue- $4.2*
C: Ross- $1.0
IF: Phillips- $.5
3B: Encarnacion- $.4
OF: Denorfia- $.35
CF: Griffey- $12.5*
LF: Dunn- $10.5*
Utl: Freel- $1.7*

I believe those are the players who will defiantly be a part of the 2007 Reds. I figure there will be a few more trades that might take away from this list but for the most part that is everyone on the current roster who will be here next year for sure. That is 17 players and the math will show you that we need 8 more players for a full roster. Maybe it will be Votto or Standridge or Shack that might make the team but for the most part those players are neutral when looking at the overall payroll. That is roughly $51 million dedicated to the team.

I believe there are a few players on the roster that have a chance to be resigned or their option picked up.
IF: Aurilia- $2.0*
IF: Castro- $1.0*
IF: Hatteberg- $2.0
P: Balfour- $.4
That is a total of roughly $5.5 million making my total payroll for the 2007 Reds to be between $51-56 million. And also having between 17-21 players signed.

A quick look at those players who will be back and I see that we need a 2B if they want to keep Freel coming off the bench. Maybe a 1B if Dunn is not moved there, but I seriously believe Aurilia or Hatteberg are going to be signed to play there if Votto doesnít. We defiantly need at least one SP and a Closer if no one steps up.

So we need 1B, 2B, SP, and a Closer. Some of those positions can be picked up for cheap (1B: Votto or Hatteberg) and some might not need to be picked up at all (2B with Freel). But at the most I believe that is what we will need. And if we stick with a $65 million payroll then we have $10-15 million to spend. So I wouldnít be surprised if they have $15-20 million to spend this offseason.

That was a whole lot of words to say this: Even though Krivsky is going to say the move was made for this year; I believe it was also made for payroll flexibility going into this offseason. Iím not writing this season off just yet, but naturally as a Reds fan I am looking forward to next year, and I know there are going to be a lot of new faces in 2007 but with our available money I believe these new faces also have a chance to be good baseball players. So I look for the Reds to be very active this offseason.

Feel free to critique this thread or flat out tell me I took too much time coming up with this cause it makes no sense or its too early to look towards next year.

Nugget
07-14-2006, 12:36 AM
Your forgetting that both Harris and Bergolla are 2B. I would say that 1B is probably the most crucial position for the REDS in the offseason, other than pitching. Depending on how the rest of the minor league season you could also see Dumatrait in the majors next year as well as Wilson out of the pen. I don't think you will see Votto up next year unless he plays AAA towards the end of this season.

Marc D
07-14-2006, 12:44 AM
I think you'll be forced to carry the Aurillia/Hatteberg thing into '07. Just no way to be sure Votto can make that kind of jump that quick. I also feel that Votto's re-emergence this year has effectively ended the Dunn to 1B thing(although Dunn's ability to play 1B probably dd that already).

vaticanplum
07-14-2006, 12:56 AM
Milton- $9.0*
Arroyo- $3.8*
Harang- $4.0 (I will admit Iím clueless on what he will get paid)

On a semi-unrelated note, this just makes me cry. Do you think Harang and Arroyo short-sheet Milton's bed every night?

princeton
07-14-2006, 12:54 PM
I believe those are the players who will defiantly be a part of the 2007 Reds.

there hasn't been a defiant part of the Reds since Barry Larkin.

personally, I think that the Kearns/Lopez deal shows a huge commitment by Reds brass to Adam Dunn and to Junior, which ought to jazz the casual fans; to Encarnacion, which ought to jazz the BA crowd; to defense, which ought to jazz the in-my-day crowd; and especially to pitching, which ought to jazz the we've-had-no-pitching-for-100-years crowd.

and we've effectively (and yes, defiantly) announced that Bill Bray will be a great one. isn't that great news?

Heath
07-14-2006, 12:56 PM
So - next up on the salary dump parade should be Jason LaRue followed by Eric Milton.

One would think, that Milton would have some trade value over the offseason, purely on the speculation he's in a contract year and wants to go out guns a-blazin'.

LincolnparkRed
07-14-2006, 01:25 PM
One would think, that Milton would have some trade value over the offseason, purely on the speculation he's in a contract year and wants to go out guns a-blazin'.

Not sure Eric is familar with that term

Shaknb8k
07-14-2006, 07:37 PM
If the Reds could get rid of Milton and LaRue that would be huge. The reds would be major spenders this offseason.

KronoRed
07-15-2006, 01:54 AM
If the Reds could get rid of Milton and LaRue that would be huge. The reds would be major spenders this offseason.
On what though? the market doesn't look so hot.

corkedbat
07-15-2006, 02:23 AM
Your forgetting that both Harris and Bergolla are 2B. I would say that 1B is probably the most crucial position for the REDS in the offseason, other than pitching. Depending on how the rest of the minor league season you could also see Dumatrait in the majors next year as well as Wilson out of the pen. I don't think you will see Votto up next year unless he plays AAA towards the end of this season.

I think Harris is more likely a utility-type and to paraphrase what someone said yesterday, Bergiolla still wets himself everytime he steps in a big league batters box. I'd like to add at least one and hopefully two legitimate Major League-ready MI prospects to go with Phillips before ST

Scrap Irony
07-15-2006, 03:30 AM
Wither Olmedo?

Cincinnati has at least four options in-house as a 2B next year, even if Aurillia, Castro, and Cornrow Clayton are sent packing (free agency/ Supplimental draft picks?).

Olmedo has shown a high BA in AAA and has matured into an excellent defensive player. He's more Davey Concepcion than Larkin at this point, but that's not all bad, assuming the lineup remains solid.

Bergolla is a year or two away, IMO, but remains relatively talented. He refuses to walk, so he's extremely BA-driven, but his glove, too, is special. And his wheels are not bad at all.

Harris is also BA driven with no pop, but he's supposedly got a great glove. He, too, refuses to walk much.

The best bet, IMO, is Freel. He's got a decent glove, decent range, but outstanding speed and leadoff capabilities.

If none of them float your boat, there are at least 12 free agent middle infielders. Demand exceeds supply, so prices should not be exorbitant.

2B/ SS is not a problem. The problem is and continues to be pitching.

boobhat
07-15-2006, 06:17 AM
i found this on yahoo. this is a prediction of who will be available and at what cost

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Aiiyseo8VtwBcEhcRSRxBUI5nYcB?slug=jp-freeagents071406&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Highlifeman21
07-16-2006, 09:27 AM
i found this on yahoo. this is a prediction of who will be available and at what cost

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Aiiyseo8VtwBcEhcRSRxBUI5nYcB?slug=jp-freeagents071406&prov=yhoo&type=lgns


Based on this Yahoo! article, I think the Reds should target the following (in no set order):

Nomar Garciaparra (Sure, he's old, but I believe he's an upgrade over the 1B platoon right now. If he would sign for a "bargain" contract, this could be a key pick up for the Reds)

Adam Eaton (Simply an upgrade at the backend of the rotation. I wouldn't project him at anything higher than a #4 for us.)

Frank Catalanotto (If we can't get Nomar, Catalanotto is a better Ryan Freel, and could potentially be our starting 1B. He could also be a much improved super sub, which might make Ryan Freel a solid bargaining chip.)

Scott Hatteberg (We know him version 2006. If he continues to produce, he definitely should be retained.)

Tony Armas Jr (He might be a #3 for us. Getting rid of Milton would pave the way for this move I feel.)

Danys Baez (While I can't imagine the Dodgers would let him go, if we had any chance to sign him we should take it seriously. He could pitch any role out of the bullpen for us, and even be an emergency/spot starter)

----------------------------------------------------------------

Realistically, I only see us at having a shot at 2 of these guys, minus Hatteberg, so personally I would like to see us go after Catalanotto and Tony Armas Jr. I think those two, along with keeping Hatteberg would not only give us bench depth, but a reliable middle to back of the rotation starter.

Thoughts?

redsmetz
07-16-2006, 09:43 AM
I think you'll be forced to carry the Aurillia/Hatteberg thing into '07. Just no way to be sure Votto can make that kind of jump that quick. I also feel that Votto's re-emergence this year has effectively ended the Dunn to 1B thing(although Dunn's ability to play 1B probably dd that already).

That's what I'm thinking. If Votto is presumably the long term, another stop gap year is likely. Of course, it could be some other one year FA or such too.

Reds1
07-16-2006, 11:26 AM
Does Votto have a chance to be at 1B next season? Then Hatte could be a back up or starter during injuries.

RBA
07-16-2006, 11:49 AM
Sometime next year Bailey will be in the rotation. Most likely after the All-Star break. That's my predicition.

KronoRed
07-16-2006, 03:19 PM
Sometime next year Bailey will be in the rotation. Most likely after the All-Star break. That's my predicition.
Hope he finds something else other then a fastball or it will be a real short stay