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Kc61
07-16-2006, 12:31 PM
Guy isn't hitting. Adjustment? Slump? Bust? Injury? Small sample size? Fatigue?

Would appreciate any knowledge or wisdom on the subject. Thanks.

TC81190
07-16-2006, 12:56 PM
Sample size.

Steve4192
07-16-2006, 01:12 PM
No offense intended, but some folks need to get a grip.

Stubbs hasn't lit the league on fire on his first 20 games, but he hasn't been terrible either.

Yes his 230 BA is anemic, but to borrow a quote from 'Bull Durham', if he got one more Texas leaguer or ground ball with eyes per week (4 hits) he'd be batting 284 and no one would be asking what is wrong with him. Aside from his low BA (and K's if those hurt your feelings), Stubbs has for the most part been solid.

1. He's playing a gold-glove caliber CF
2. He's putting up an outstanding BB rate and secondary averages
3. He's getting on base at a very solid 356 clip
4. He leads the Pioneer league in SB (11) and has only been caught once
5. He is 2nd in the Pioneer league in triples

Right now, he looks like a young Mike Cameron ... great speed and defense, developing power, solid OBP, lots of K's and a mediocre BA. Mike Cameron was one of the best combinations of offense/defense at the CF position in MLB from 1999-2003. I would have no problem if Stubbs turned into a carbon copy of Mike Cameron in his prime.

princeton
07-16-2006, 05:01 PM
so far, reminds me more of BJ Szymanski than Mike Cameron

Blue
07-16-2006, 05:33 PM
Whenever someone mentions Stubbs' OBP I feel compelled to point out that he has been hit by numerous pitches, padding that percentage quite a bit.

traderumor
07-16-2006, 05:41 PM
Whenever someone mentions Stubbs' OBP I feel compelled to point out that he has been hit by numerous pitches, padding that percentage quite a bit.
That's why its called "On Base Percentage." You get hit, you get on base. Why do you feel compelled to point that out?

jmcclain19
07-16-2006, 05:42 PM
so far, reminds me more of BJ Szymanski than Mike Cameron

I'm still hoping for the Reds sake, that I was wrong

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=991427&postcount=6


You have to wonder if Stubbs isn't Szymanski from a better baseball school.

Szymanski's last year at school
.362AVG/.433OBP/.610SLG/1043OPS
Stubbs last year at school
.347AVG/.450OBP/.597SLG/1047OPS

Aronchis
07-16-2006, 06:21 PM
Why Stubbs? I think Buckley just did his Gabe Gross part two..........:mooner:

Ibleedblue
07-16-2006, 06:45 PM
That's why its called "On Base Percentage." You get hit, you get on base. Why do you feel compelled to point that out?
Because getting hit isn't a skill, walking is. I would rather his OBP be walk+average driven then walk+HBP driven, anyday.

Steve4192
07-16-2006, 06:58 PM
Because getting hit isn't a skill

Don Baylor, Corky Miller and a whole host of other guys would disagree with you.

There are tons of examples of hitters who posted sky high HBP totals year in and year out. If it wasn't a skill, guys wouldn't be able to reproduce high HBP totals year after year after year. Getting plunked is most definitely a skill.

dabvu2498
07-16-2006, 07:13 PM
Don Baylor, Corky Miller and a whole host of other guys would disagree with you.

There are tons of examples of hitters who posted sky high HBP totals year in and year out. If it wasn't a skill, guys wouldn't be able to reproduce high HBP totals year after year after year. Getting plunked is most definitely a skill.
Craig Biggio would like to join your list.

TOBTTReds
07-16-2006, 07:14 PM
Don Baylor, Corky Miller and a whole host of other guys would disagree with you.

There are tons of examples of hitters who posted sky high HBP totals year in and year out. If it wasn't a skill, guys wouldn't be able to reproduce high HBP totals year after year after year. Getting plunked is most definitely a skill.

I see what you are getting at, but I think it is only a skill if you are intentionally doing it. LaRue gets plunked a lot and I don't think he is intentionally getting hit in the hands and wrists.

At rookie ball, I doubt Stubbs is trying to get hit by the pitch. You dont get called up for HBP's. I think it's a combo of his swing which probably dives in and bad control by pitchers. To call someone skillfull at being HBP's in rookie ball is an excuse.

Guys that I have seen that I would say are 'skillfull' at it are Fernando Vena and Craig Biggio.

Ravenlord
07-16-2006, 08:29 PM
Guys that I have seen that I would say are 'skillfull' at it are Fernando Vena and Craig Biggio.
Craig Wilson.

and if it's kept track of (i doubt it is) i'd wadger Wilson gets hit at a higher rate with 3 balls on him then with all other count combonations (his swing already puts him in the line, but when he has 3 balls on him he no longer tries to move out of the way of a pitch).

TOBTTReds
07-16-2006, 08:52 PM
Craig Wilson.

and if it's kept track of (i doubt it is) i'd wadger Wilson gets hit at a higher rate with 3 balls on him then with all other count combonations (his swing already puts him in the line, but when he has 3 balls on him he no longer tries to move out of the way of a pitch).

Which doesn't make sense since that is ball four anyway, but like we say: "Wear it!"

Blue
07-16-2006, 09:02 PM
;) maybe there's something to what the good captain is saying... he was just hit by another pitch!

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2006, 11:02 PM
Good day today...Stubbs went 3-for-4 with three doubles tonight.

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 11:20 PM
No offense intended, but some folks need to get a grip.

Stubbs hasn't lit the league on fire on his first 20 games, but he hasn't been terrible either.

Yes his 230 BA is anemic, but to borrow a quote from 'Bull Durham', if he got one more Texas leaguer or ground ball with eyes per week (4 hits) he'd be batting 284 and no one would be asking what is wrong with him. Aside from his low BA (and K's if those hurt your feelings), Stubbs has for the most part been solid.

1. He's playing a gold-glove caliber CF
2. He's putting up an outstanding BB rate and secondary averages
3. He's getting on base at a very solid 356 clip
4. He leads the Pioneer league in SB (11) and has only been caught once
5. He is 2nd in the Pioneer league in triples

Right now, he looks like a young Mike Cameron ... great speed and defense, developing power, solid OBP, lots of K's and a mediocre BA. Mike Cameron was one of the best combinations of offense/defense at the CF position in MLB from 1999-2003. I would have no problem if Stubbs turned into a carbon copy of Mike Cameron in his prime.
Yes, this is an enormously small sample size. But I think Stubbs has at least shown a cause for concern. His biggest question was his hitting and his hitting has been nothing short of horrific. You know you are struggling when your SLG is less than your OBP.

But the most disturbing thing is that he is in Billings right now. Yeah he had a good day today, but he faced a 19 year old with an 11.51 ERA. He is facing teenagers when he starred for one of the best college programs in the country.

I really hope this is a sample size issue, b/c he should be doing much better than what he has showed so far.

Blue
07-17-2006, 12:18 AM
Good day today...Stubbs went 3-for-4 with three doubles tonight.

yeah, 1 double off of 3 different pitchers, maybe he figured out what he's doing?

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 09:13 AM
and if it's kept track of (i doubt it is) i'd wadger Wilson gets hit at a higher rate with 3 balls on him then with all other count combonations
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6642&type=batting3

Check his 'By Count' split for the last three years. Wilson has 53 HBP during that time period, but only 5 of 'em have come with 3 ball counts (3-0, 3-1, 3-2). He pretty much only gets plunked when he is in a pitchers count (19 HBP) or when the count is even (21 HBP).

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 09:38 AM
Back to the sample size issue. Here why folks need to chill out.

After ONE good game, Stubbs batting average just shot up 26 points and his OPS went up 81 points. It is WAY too early to draw any meaningful information from Stubbs batting stats at this point.

To further illustrate the point, let's keep in mind that Jay Bruce was batting 263 with an ugly 315 OBP after the first eight weeks of the season. Now, six weeks later, he is batting 315 with a stellar 383 OBP and we are hearing rumblings about him being named minor league player of the year.

A lot can change over the course of a season. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Stubbs stumbled out of the starters blocks, but he's still got 26 miles left to make up the lost ground.

TOBTTReds
07-17-2006, 12:00 PM
To further illustrate the point, let's keep in mind that Jay Bruce was batting 263 with an ugly 315 OBP after the first eight weeks of the season. Now, six weeks later, he is batting 315 with a stellar 383 OBP and we are hearing rumblings about him being named minor league player of the year.


Great point.

I think the other factor is that people heard coming in that his hitting was questionable. No one freaked of Bruce's slow start bc we all "knew" he was a solid hitter. But when a questionable hitter struggles, it's bc he sucks (so say the posters).

princeton
07-17-2006, 12:30 PM
I agree that the sample size is small, and that we'll know more in six weeks. And hopefully Stubbs hits .333 by end of season.

a 21 year old really should hit like crazy in Billings, where you'll see guys hit .450 for extended periods. Hitting .400 at Billings projects little, but if you hit .240 at 21 in Billings, you don't hit anywhere.

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 01:04 PM
a 21 year old really should hit like crazy in Billings, where you'll see guys hit .450 for extended periods. Hitting .400 at Billings projects little, but if you hit .240 at 21 in Billings, you don't hit anywhere.
I completely agree that he should be tearing the cover off the ball in the Pioneer league. However, I am not going to rush to judgement based on a half season of rookie ball.

There are plenty of examples of college guys who stunk up the joint in rookie ball who recovered nicely in a full-season league the following year. There are also plenty of examples of college guys who destroyed rookie ball and never could carry that success over to a full-season league. Maybe his body has adapted to the shorter college season and he is worn down. Maybe he is struggling with the adjustment to a wood bat. Maybe he just has the misfortune of being in a slump to start his pro career. Maybe he is dealing with personal issues. Who knows?

Regardless of the reason, I don't believe we can't glean a whole lot of useful information about the kid until he has had an offseason to prepare for the rigors of pro baseball. As long as he hits next year in Dayton/Sarasota, I don't much care what he does this year.

princeton
07-17-2006, 01:26 PM
There are plenty of examples of college guys who stunk up the joint in rookie ball who recovered nicely in a full-season league the following year.

find a Billings guy

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 01:39 PM
find a Billings guy

Pat Watkins is the guy who immediately comes to mind. I remembered being stoked about the Reds drafting him out of ECU in 1993. I got to watch him quite a bit in college and though he was a heck of a player. Pat pretty much sucked at Billings and looked like a bust in 1993, but then made the jump up to the high A Carolina league in 1994 and absolutely wrecked everything in his path.

Jason Larue is another guy that was a much better hitter in single-A/AA ball than he was in rookie ball. Noochie Varner also really struggled in his first year at Billings, though he crushed the league the following year. Heck, even Edwin Encarnacion struggled at Billings, but he was probably the youngest player in the league at that time so we have to cut him some slack.

edabbs44
07-17-2006, 01:43 PM
Back to the sample size issue. Here why folks need to chill out.

After ONE good game, Stubbs batting average just shot up 26 points and his OPS went up 81 points. It is WAY too early to draw any meaningful information from Stubbs batting stats at this point.

To further illustrate the point, let's keep in mind that Jay Bruce was batting 263 with an ugly 315 OBP after the first eight weeks of the season. Now, six weeks later, he is batting 315 with a stellar 383 OBP and we are hearing rumblings about him being named minor league player of the year.

A lot can change over the course of a season. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Stubbs stumbled out of the starters blocks, but he's still got 26 miles left to make up the lost ground.
But you have to admit that it's scary that Stubbs is playing one level lower than Bruce and is a few years older.

princeton
07-17-2006, 01:47 PM
Pat Watkins is the guy who immediately comes to mind.

Pat Watkins was one of the worst Reds picks in history

You see my point?

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 01:52 PM
But you have to admit that it's scary that Stubbs is playing one level lower than Bruce and is a few years older.

Not really.

That says more about Bruce (that he's a freaking stud) than it says about Stubbs.

Do you think Cardinals fans were scared in 2001 because the rest of their prospects were older than Albert Pujols and Albert was already wrecking major leagers? Of course not. Albert's status as a freak of nature had no bearing on the rest of their prospects. The same can be said for Jay Bruce and the rest of the Reds minor league system.

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 01:56 PM
Pat Watkins was one of the worst Reds picks in history

You see my point?
Not really.

As I also mentioned, Jason Larue was also a much better hitter once he left Billings, and he certainly has turned out to be a solid major leaguer. Ditto for EE (though his numbers were likely due in part to his relative youth).

Also, I disagree that Pat Watkins was a horrible pick. The Reds screwed the pooch by holding on to him too long. They could have received good value for him in a trade if they had traded him in 1997 or 1998, and they had plenty of OF depth in the majors to make him eminently expendable. Unfortunately, JimBo's well known man-fetish for 5-tool outfielders prevented him from pulling the trigger and he kept Pat around until it was abundantly clear to everyone in MLB that he was pyrite.

princeton
07-17-2006, 02:11 PM
Jason Larue was also a much better hitter once he left Billings, and he certainly has turned out to be a solid major leaguer.

he's a marginal hitter, and defined the marginal offense that you must have from a 21 year old Billings hitter. If Stubbs can't post Larue (.273 BA, .766 OPS) numbers this year, despite having come out of a much higher profile program than the Dallas Baptist product (and with wood bat experience to boot) then he's defined his probable offensive destiny. And it wouldn't be a good one.

Billings is a wonderful litmus test for the Reds' organization. It tells them exactly who to trade should they ever get an opportunity. It's a crystal ball.

but if you're happy with a Watkins-type of player, then you should be pleased by underperformance

redsupport
07-17-2006, 04:41 PM
pat watkins was another classic pick but not as classic as john oliver or chat mottola, or even Lincoln Curtis

KoryMac5
07-17-2006, 04:55 PM
He is up to 360AB's between his time at Texas and his time at Billings. It may be fatigue or the adjustment from college to the minors either way I think he will be fine very small sample size to judge him on and make comparisons.

edabbs44
07-17-2006, 06:04 PM
Not really.

That says more about Bruce (that he's a freaking stud) than it says about Stubbs.

Do you think Cardinals fans were scared in 2001 because the rest of their prospects were older than Albert Pujols and Albert was already wrecking major leagers? Of course not. Albert's status as a freak of nature had no bearing on the rest of their prospects. The same can be said for Jay Bruce and the rest of the Reds minor league system.
It's a little early to start the Bruce/Pujols comparisons. Unless Bruce is on HGH. :evil:

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 06:17 PM
It's a little early to start the Bruce/Pujols comparisons.
It wasn't my intent to compare Bruce to Pujols. I was just trying to say that if we hold every prospect to the same standard as Bruce, 99% of them will fall short of that standard.

edabbs44
07-17-2006, 06:27 PM
It wasn't my intent to compare Bruce to Pujols. I was just trying to say that if we hold every prospect to the same standard as Bruce, 99% of them will fall short of that standard.
My original statement was that Bruce is much younger than Stubbs and ripping it up in a level above him. Stubbs has been flat out awful. Hopefully he will improve, but it seems like Billings is a step down from UT.

Steve4192
07-17-2006, 07:13 PM
Stubbs has been flat out awful.

Flat out awful?

A stud defensive CF who leads his league in SB, is posting a sterling 374 OBP, and has a respectable (but not fantastic) 744 OPS has been flat out awful?

Tough crowd.

Caveat Emperor
07-17-2006, 07:28 PM
Flat out awful?

A stud defensive CF who leads his league in SB, is posting a a sterling 374 OBP, and has a respectable (but not fantastic) 744 OPS has been flat out awful?

Tough crowd.

Yup.

Wake me when his numbers contradict the scouting report that said he'd struggle making the switch from aluminum to wood. Until that happens, I stand by my claim that Drew Stubbs was a swing-and-a-miss pick by the Reds scouting brass.

edabbs44
07-17-2006, 08:59 PM
Flat out awful?

A stud defensive CF who leads his league in SB, is posting a sterling 374 OBP, and has a respectable (but not fantastic) 744 OPS has been flat out awful?

Tough crowd.
Evan Longoria, in the SS NY Penn league, hit .424 with 4 HRs and 11 RBI in 8 games. 1.366 OPS.

He then moved to High A, where he is currently hitting .339 with 5 HRs and 13 RBI in 15 games. 1.105 OPS.

That's the kind of damage I'd like to see (or at least somewhere in the vicinity of) when your 21 year old top 10 pick is playing against teenagers.

flyer85
07-17-2006, 10:52 PM
From BBTF ... I think we'll end up regretting passing on Lincecum.


#8 - Cincinnati Reds - CF Drew Stubbs

Crap swing. I reviewed his video more closely and discovered that his hands and his torso disconnect severely. In other words, his torso/hips/legs donít really help him much in getting the bat moving towards the ball. When so much of the review is based on swing mechanics, it is easy to overlook the other parts of his game. OK, he looks like heís a good athlete, so thereís hope. That said, I donít like this pick here, not this high.

Grade: C-

Stubbs is hitting 247/374/370 in 92 plate appearances for the Billings Mustangs.

NewEraReds
07-18-2006, 12:27 AM
Whenever someone mentions Stubbs' OBP I feel compelled to point out that he has been hit by numerous pitches, padding that percentage quite a bit.
what happens when he stops getting beaned and has to actually hit the ball ;) just sayin. i was never a fan of this pick, in fact the exact opp, and though its early, im not feeling any better. we already have bj in the system, what is so much better about this guy that you would pass on college pitchers who can throw heat and are good

NewEraReds
07-18-2006, 12:28 AM
Yup.

Wake me when his numbers contradict the scouting report that said he'd struggle making the switch from aluminum to wood. Until that happens, I stand by my claim that Drew Stubbs was a swing-and-a-miss pick by the Reds scouting brass.and a VERY BAD one at that. almost as bad as the hole in his swing ;)

mbgrayson
07-18-2006, 01:43 AM
From the 7/17/06 Billings Gazette:
"Stubbs, the first-round draft pick of the Cincinnati Reds this season, entered Sunday's game with a .221 average. Batting leadoff for the second straight game, the speedy 6-foot-3 center fielder knocked three doubles and scored three times. It was his first multi-hit game since June 30, a span of 10 starts, and he bumped his average up to .247.

"I've been struggling a little bit as of late and the past few days I've been hitting some balls hard, it seems, right at people," Stubbs said. "Things haven't been falling for me. Today was a nice turnaround. Hopefully, it's a turning point in the season for me where I can get things back on the right foot."


Tonight he ended up going 1 for 4 (single), 1 BB, and 1 k. He also had 2 stolen bases tonight, making 13 for the season, with 1 caught stealing for the season.

Willy
07-19-2006, 04:21 PM
I would think that the coaches are making some adjustments to his swing. Maybe he is just working on his swing. It always gets worst before it gets better.

guttle11
07-19-2006, 05:39 PM
Stubbs has been playing everyday since probably January. Now, he's probably been doing that for a few years, but now he has the added pressure of being a first round draft pick and playing for money.

Give him time to settle in to professional baseball, and give him time to settle in to what is likely a new coaching style and outlook.

It takes time. Relax.

37red
07-19-2006, 06:21 PM
could I cut in and ask where to get the latest on the Bats and Mud Hens players? My kids are taking me to the game next week and I'd like to be up on the line up, thanks.

Ravenlord
07-19-2006, 06:24 PM
could I cut in and ask where to get the latest on the Bats and Mud Hens players? My kids are taking me to the game next week and I'd like to be up on the line up, thanks.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/index.jsp?sid=t416

http://www.mudhens.com/

37red
07-19-2006, 06:26 PM
I'm on it, thanks

edabbs44
07-19-2006, 08:55 PM
Stubbs has been playing everyday since probably January. Now, he's probably been doing that for a few years, but now he has the added pressure of being a first round draft pick and playing for money.

Give him time to settle in to professional baseball, and give him time to settle in to what is likely a new coaching style and outlook.

It takes time. Relax.
But I think talent would overcome some of the adjustment level. His stat line is putrid.

Aronchis
07-19-2006, 08:56 PM
But I think talent would overcome some of the adjustment level. His stat line is putrid.

Actually his walk ratio isn't that bad. Just little few hits and little power.

edabbs44
07-19-2006, 08:58 PM
Actually his walk ratio isn't that bad. Just little few hits and little power.
That's not good...

Ravenlord
07-19-2006, 09:12 PM
21 Year Old Drew Stubb's current stat line: 239/360/348
21 Year Old Anderson Machado's stat line: 251/355/398

...oh yeah, Machado was in AA by then too.

Steve4192
07-19-2006, 09:27 PM
His stat line is putrid.

21 Year Old Drew Stubb's current stat line: 239/360/348
21 Year Old Anderson Machado's stat line: 251/355/398

...oh yeah, Machado was in AA by then too.

80 FREAKING AT BATS!!!!!

People need to calm down. I'll be happy to join the lynch mob a year from now if he continues on his current path, but it is a little early to be erecting the gallows.

edabbs44
07-19-2006, 09:34 PM
80 FREAKING AT BATS!!!!!

People need to calm down. I'll be happy to join the lynch mob a year from now if he continues on his current path, but it is a little early to be erecting the gallows.
We're calm, but they guy technicaly moved down a level and hasn't hit. Period. No one is erecting the gallows, but I think people have the right to point out the obvious. He isn't hitting and that was the biggest knock on him coming out. I think people can get worried since this was predicted by some.

Edd Roush
07-20-2006, 12:24 AM
Okay, okay. After reading through this whole thread, I'm going to put in my two cents. I enjoy looking through the rose-colored glasses so, I am going to choose to look at it through the optimist's point of view.

Reading about Stubbs' early struggles, brings to mind the early struggles of my favorite player, Derek Jeter. In his autobiography, Jeter talked about how he struggled through his early days in the Yankee farm system and just wanted to give up on baseball. Obviously, Jeter stuck it out and turned out to become one of the best shortstops in Yankee history.

This is not to say Stubbs can hold a candle to DJ and granted DJ was just a high schooler from Kalamazoo, but maybe Stubbs is just working out some kinks. Give Chambliss and some of the other random hitting instructors give some advice to him and see if things change before we stick a fork in him.

All of this said, I was never a huge fan of this pick, but I still don't think he's being given a fair chance. Let the man play a couple of years of ball before we stick a fork in him.

Superdude
07-20-2006, 12:28 AM
Right on CaptainHook. This early in the season, numbers can change fast. If he pulls a Szymanski in Dayton next year, then I'll be worried.

Az. Reds Fan
07-20-2006, 02:34 AM
Stubbs was 3-6 tonite, 3 singles, RBI, K. Moved his avg. up to .255

Willy
07-20-2006, 11:55 PM
He is 2-3 so far tonight, up to .267

Looks like someone might be breaking out!!

keeganbrick
07-21-2006, 02:53 AM
3-5 on Thursday night, double and run scored. Up to .272.:)

Buckeye33
07-21-2006, 03:16 PM
3-5 on Thursday night, double and run scored. Up to .272.:)

.272? No way! Not Drew Stubbs. He was suppose to melt away quicker than an ice cream cone at the ballgame. He had 80 ABs in and was hitting .235 and all of the Reds fans said he would amount to nothing!

Maybe he will amount to nothing, but give the damn kid more than 80 ABs before you start ripping on him.

Kc61
07-21-2006, 03:40 PM
I think it's fair to ask questions about his hitting.

Guy came from big time program in Texas. Eighth pick in the draft. Folks were shocked that he was starting out as low as Billings. Then it was assumed he would get feet wet there and wind up at Dayton in a few weeks.

Turns out he has struggled to hit even at the Billings level. So it is fair to ask whether this is temporary or if there is a real hitting problem.

If he is adjusting and starting to hit now, great. But it's fair to ask the question.

KoryMac5
07-21-2006, 04:53 PM
I think it is always fair to ask questions and to wonder about what might be going on with a player, manager, and GM. However, we do get quite a few statements on this wonderful board of ours laced with strong opinions. That's what makes talkin Reds baseball so much fun. I like the Stubbs pick warts and all. He is young enough and eager enough to learn and make adjustments. It will be awesome to see both Bruce and Stubbs come up through the system.

Rob Dicken
07-21-2006, 05:01 PM
Because getting hit isn't a skill, walking is. I would rather his OBP be walk+average driven then walk+HBP driven, anyday.

Getting hit is a walk.

chicoruiz
07-21-2006, 05:46 PM
If he is adjusting and starting to hit now, great. But it's fair to ask the question.

It's not the asking the question that irks some of us; it's those who think they already know the answer.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 09:42 AM
Stubbs hit his first HR last night, and he did it in style by swatting a big fly with the bases juiced. Congrats on the grand salami Drew!

BTW - Stubbs has been destroying the ball for the past week. Can we get off his back yet, or does 'small sample size' suddenly become relevent when the results are positive?

dougdirt
07-23-2006, 01:56 PM
Hook, I think a lot of people are still pretty disappointed in him. I mean if you compare what Evan Longoria is doing to what Drew Stubbs is doing, as they were the 1st two college hitters taken, Stubbs looks bad. Yeah, there is a small sample size, but Longoria is killing the ball and Stubbs is struggling in rookie ball as a 21 year old.

I mean Longoria is now in High-A with 7 HR in 77 at bats and is hitting .377 and has on OPS of 1.176. Stubbs is having problems OPSing .800. Have we given up on him yet? No, but he needs to start hitting. He is starting to, which is good, but lets see it for more than a week before I want to say the results are positive. He did go 1-5 last night with 3 strikeouts when almost everyone else on his team had multihit games.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 02:20 PM
He did go 1-5 last night with 3 strikeouts when almost everyone else on his team had multihit games.

This is what mean. The guy hit a grand slam last night and has had three 3-hit games this week, yet we still hear about what he didn't do. When Adam Dunn strikes out and puts up a low BA, most fans accept it as part of the total package that Dunn brings to the table. When Drew Stubbs does it, it is a sign that he was a horrid draft pick and will never amount to anything.

Regarding Evan Longoria, frankly, I don't give a flying hoot what Longoria is doing. Not every guy who becomes a quality MLB hitter puts up an 1176 OPS in his first exposure to pro ball, and not every guy who puts up an 1176 OPS in his first exposure to pro ball becomes a quality MLB hitter. Travis Lee destroyed the California league and the PCL immediately after being drafted, but he has never become anything close to a serviceable MLB hitter.

dougdirt
07-23-2006, 02:35 PM
Adam Dunn is doing those things at the MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL. Drew Stubbs doesnt bring the power that Dunn does, and is doing it in ROOKIE BALL. As for what Dunn did as a 21 year old, well you go look it up for yourself. That was a horrible comparison.

As for Longoria, I used it as an example of another college hitter taken in the top 10, who is actually a year younger than Stubbs and is absolutely raking. Yeah, its no guarentee that Longoria does anything in the future. It does bode a little better for him though considering he is younger, at a higher level and killing the ball, where as Stubbs is a year older, 2 levels lower and struggling.

KoryMac5
07-23-2006, 05:03 PM
I think a lot of people did not like this pick when it was made therefore some opinions are sure to be tilted against Stubbs no matter what he does. He has not looked great so far and has been outplayed by other members of the team (Parker and Heisey). But 21 is not ancient by any means and just a couple of days ago his batting average was at around .240 or so. Looks like he is making some adjustments so lets see where he is at the end of the year.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 05:16 PM
He has not looked great so far and has been outplayed by other members of the team
Honestly, outside of Heisey, no one is really crushing the ball in Billings. Only one player (Heisey) has a 900+ OPS and only two others (Rojo, Valaika) have cracked the 850 OPS barrier. For some reason (talent?), no one is having the monster hitting year that Billings has become notorious for producing.

KoryMac5
07-23-2006, 05:22 PM
Valaika has shown some good pop tied with Heisey with 5hr's.

Caveat Emperor
07-23-2006, 05:32 PM
I think a lot of people did not like this pick when it was made therefore some opinions are sure to be tilted against Stubbs no matter what he does. He has not looked great so far and has been outplayed by other members of the team (Parker and Heisey). But 21 is not ancient by any means and just a couple of days ago his batting average was at around .240 or so. Looks like he is making some adjustments so lets see where he is at the end of the year.

His batting average is far less worrisome than his .393 SLG. Hitting his first HR was good, and I'll buy that he might've just started off slowly due to the layoff between the college season ending and going to Billings for the rookie league -- but I want to see this kid start to show some pop with thet wood bat before I start thinking highly of his chances to be anything other than a slightly above replacement-level outfielder. Hes got good defensive instincts, which is helpful -- now we'll see if the stick develops into something that makes him worth playing.

Having said that, I plan to shut up about Stubbs and re-evaluate where he is at when the season finishes.

Cedric
07-23-2006, 05:35 PM
His batting average is far less worrisome than his .393 SLG. Hitting his first HR was good, and I'll buy that he might've just started off slowly due to the layoff between the college season ending and going to Billings for the rookie league -- but I want to see this kid start to show some pop with thet wood bat before I start thinking highly of his chances to be anything other than a slightly above replacement-level outfielder. Hes got good defensive instincts, which is helpful -- now we'll see if the stick develops into something that makes him worth playing.

Having said that, I plan to shut up about Stubbs and re-evaluate where he is at when the season finishes.

You guys do realize he has a little more than a hundred professional at bats?

I don't know how long you have been following the development of baseball players, but the internet has pushed an absurd amount of pressure on some of these guys. In the past nobody would look at a minor leaguer until after the year or at certain intervals. Now players get thrown in the garbage because of 50 minor league at bats.

Caveat Emperor
07-23-2006, 06:08 PM
You guys do realize he has a little more than a hundred professional at bats?

I don't know how long you have been following the development of baseball players, but the internet has pushed an absurd amount of pressure on some of these guys. In the past nobody would look at a minor leaguer until after the year or at certain intervals. Now players get thrown in the garbage because of 50 minor league at bats.

I did say I was going to re-evaluate at the end of the season.

Nobody is throwing Stubbs into the garbage -- more accurately, Stubbs was labeled as a bad pick from Day 1 (based on college play and pre-draft scouting reports) and has done absolutely nothing in his time in the rookie leagues to shed that image.

Cedric
07-23-2006, 06:36 PM
Who labeled him a bad pick? People obsessed with ops?

Stubbs brings a ton of things to the table, too bad people are obsessed with ops right off the bat.

dougdirt
07-23-2006, 06:53 PM
Scouts labeled him as a bad pick. Fans labeled him as a bad pick. There were HUGE concerns about his ability to hit both with a wooden bat or hit professional pitching thanks to the huge hole in his swing.

Stubbs has good tools. He has speed, he has a good glove and a good arm. He however has and still does have HUGE questions as to whether he canor will ever hit.

traderumor
07-23-2006, 06:59 PM
I did say I was going to re-evaluate at the end of the season.

Nobody is throwing Stubbs into the garbage -- more accurately, Stubbs was labeled as a bad pick from Day 1 (based on college play and pre-draft scouting reports) and has done absolutely nothing in his time in the rookie leagues to shed that image.labeled by some. Every hitter leaving college to pros has question marks about whether or not they are "aluminum bat" hitters. Stubbs was not a consensus "bad pick," unless all you are basing it on is the draft thread, where everyone spouts off about guys they have read two sentences about either at Baseball America or on mlb.com

Caveat Emperor
07-23-2006, 07:08 PM
Who labeled him a bad pick? People obsessed with ops?

Stubbs brings a ton of things to the table, too bad people are obsessed with ops right off the bat.

There were serious concerns as he came out of college that his power numbers would disappear with the switch away from alumnium to wood. He whiffed a ton in college too, which really shouldn't happen to a supposedly elite hitter facing middling opposition on the mound -- he led his team in strikeouts all 3 years at UT. For a college hitter, that's a bit of a red flag.

He brings other tools to the plate -- speed and defense. Both of those tools are very easily (and very cheaply) acquired elsewhere if you don't care about offensive production. His value will absolutely come from his ability to hit the baseball. There is no point in using a #8 pick to draft a defensive-replacement outfielder. His speed is nice, but it'll only help him if he either cuts down on his strikeouts and puts the ball in play more, or if he ups his discipline and takes more walks to get on. If he does that, he has a chance to be a useful player.

If he wants to justify his high draft selection, however, he simply has to figure out how to hit for power with a wood bat. We'll see if he makes the transition.

ETA: I'm not dogging Drew Stubbs. I really hope he puts it together and starts hitting well in Billings. Given his advanced age, I don't think it would be out of the ordinary for him and Bruce to get on the same track here in the very near future. That'd be fantastic if the Reds could have two bona-fide outfield prospects rising through the minors together. With Dunn being only 26, there's a very real possibility that Bruce could be manning RF and Stubbs could be manning CF as early as 2009 along with a 29 year old Adam Dunn in left. That's a great thought.

Kid just has to put it together at the dish -- I'm pulling for him to do just that.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 07:38 PM
If he wants to justify his high draft selection, however, he simply has to figure out how to hit for power with a wood bat. We'll see if he makes the transition.

Why does he have to develop power to justify his draft slot? If he can play gold glove level CF and draw enough walks/HBP to post a solid OBP, he could fit in nicely as a leadoff hitter. That said, I don't think his power is going to be a problem. His bat speed and physical frame bode well for his ability to drive the ball, and he has been showing plenty of extra base power in his recent hot streak.

I still think his ceiling looks a lot like Mike Cameron. Of course, his floor is that he could be one of the 2/3 of first rounders who don't make an impact in the majors. At this point, nobody has a really good grasp on how good (or bad) he will eventually become.

TOBTTReds
07-23-2006, 07:43 PM
Scouts labeled him as a bad pick. Fans labeled him as a bad pick. There were HUGE concerns about his ability to hit both with a wooden bat or hit professional pitching thanks to the huge hole in his swing.

Stubbs has good tools. He has speed, he has a good glove and a good arm. He however has and still does have HUGE questions as to whether he canor will ever hit.

I think the ultimate red flag is 1/k per game in COLLEGE with an aluminum bat. Doesn't bode well for hitting professionals with a wooden bat.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 07:44 PM
Scouts labeled him as a bad pick.
Really?

Last I checked, both MLB.com and Baseball America had him rated as a top 10 prospect before the draft. Both of those sites use scout observations as their primary data source. I remember a lot of sabremetric sites not being too enamored with Stubbs, but to the best of my recollection the scouts loved him.

dougdirt
07-23-2006, 07:50 PM
Scouts love his tools and his potential, but every scout I either talked to or read anything from were very concerned as to if he ever was going to adjust to a wooden bat, or even his ability to hit at all. In my opinion, and granted its just my opinion, to be a top 10 pick, you better be able to hit in rookie ball, especially out of college. Stubbs has a ways to go before I write him off, but he has a ways to go before I start thinking about putting him anywhere in my train of thought as being near the top of our outfielders in our system.

Caveat Emperor
07-23-2006, 08:00 PM
Why does he have to develop power to justify his draft slot? If he can play gold glove level CF and draw enough walks/HBP to post a solid OBP, he could fit in nicely as a leadoff hitter. That said, I don't think his power is going to be a problem. His bat speed and physical frame bode well for his ability to drive the ball, and he has been showing plenty of extra base power in his recent hot streak.

I still think his ceiling looks a lot like Mike Cameron. Of course, his floor is that he could be one of the 2/3 of first rounders who don't make an impact in the majors. At this point, nobody has a really good grasp on how good (or bad) he will eventually become.

Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. With a top-10 pick, you're looking for an impact player to come out as opposed to a quality defensive CF. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong, but with that draft pick, if it's going to be a position player, I want to see Mark Teixeira or Prince Feilder, not Mike Cameron. Bad comparison, due to positions, I know -- but I think its a fair point.

And you're right, nobody has a great grasp on any of this stuff -- just getting a productive first rounder to the majors is an accomplishment enough, no matter what his ceiling is.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 08:07 PM
In my opinion, and granted its just my opinion, to be a top 10 pick, you better be able to hit in rookie ball, especially out of college.

I agree. If I had my druthers, the Reds would draft guys with polished bats who are raw defensively, not guys who are polished defensively but have raw bats. I mainly argue in Stubbs favor because I am tired of seeing the 'he sucks' posts, not because I agreed with the pick.


he has a ways to go before I start thinking about putting him anywhere in my train of thought as being near the top of our outfielders in our system.

Agreed. Of course, that has less to do with my opinion of Stubbs than it does of my opinion of 1st year players in general. IMO, no player should appear on a top prospect list until he has finished at least one full season in pro ball.

Cedric
07-23-2006, 08:14 PM
Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. With a top-10 pick, you're looking for an impact player to come out as opposed to a quality defensive CF. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong, but with that draft pick, if it's going to be a position player, I want to see Mark Teixeira or Prince Feilder, not Mike Cameron. Bad comparison, due to positions, I know -- but I think its a fair point.

And you're right, nobody has a great grasp on any of this stuff -- just getting a productive first rounder to the majors is an accomplishment enough, no matter what his ceiling is.

Did you even look at the talent in this draft? Comparing it to other drafts and other players in the past is pointless. It was amazing how bad this class was on paper.

Tony Cloninger
07-23-2006, 08:15 PM
Sounds like a Bob Howsman type pick....circa the middle 70's.

They had some bad drafts in those years.....they liked to take raw tools....over actual hitting ability. As long as they had speed....they figured they could make them hitters.

Sounds like Paul Householder right now.

Cedric
07-23-2006, 08:17 PM
Sounds like a Bob Howsman type pick....circa the middle 70's.

They had some bad drafts in those years.....they liked to take raw tools....over actual hitting ability. As long as they had speed....they figured they could make them hitters.

Sounds like Paul Householder right now.

With the talent in this draft I had no problem with them taking the highest ceiling player.

People shouldn't be writing off Drew yet or expecting him to be a silver slugger already. With his good plate patience, speed, and defense he has time to work on his plate balance. Which is what I read was his biggest problem at this point.

Caveat Emperor
07-23-2006, 08:30 PM
Did you even look at the talent in this draft? Comparing it to other drafts and other players in the past is pointless. It was amazing how bad this class was on paper.

Extensively, as a matter of fact.

Weakness of the draft class is a fair point -- but when there are other players below Stubbs who are outperforming him, it seems to underscore that maybe Stubbs was overdrafted in his position. I don't buy lack of talent in the draft; I buy good scouting, looking at the relevant numbers, and making a good pick as opposed to complaining later that there just wasn't much to be had. There is talent to be identified in every draft. No matter what sport you play -- bad teams whine about lack of talent in a draft, good teams go out and find players.

In all honesty, though, you're right -- previous drafts are a bit of a non sequitur in this argument. The debate remains whether or not Drew Stubbs was/is a good player and whether or not he is going to be able correct the flaws in his game that will make him a good prospect that can project through the system. As I said previously, it is far too early to evaluate that and probably should wait until the offseason at the very earliest.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 08:34 PM
Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more.
I think your expectations are too high.

Go back and take a look at the top 10 of any given draft and tell me how many guys ended up as better players than Mike Cameron. Better yet, just take a look at the guys from 6-10 and perform the same exercise. Let's take a look at a couple of examples:

2000 draft

#6 - Rocco Baldelli
#7 - Matt Harrington
#8 - Matt Wheatland
#9 - Mark Phillips
#10 - Joe Torres

2001 draft

#6 - RHP Josh Karp
#7 - LHP Chris Smith
#8 - RHP John Van Benschoten
#9 - RHP Colt Griffin
#10 - SS Chris Burke

Call me crazy, but I don't see a single player in that group that is better than Mike Cameron, and I see a bunch of guys that never made a dent in the majors. I am sure there are some fantastic players chosen in the 6-10 range in prior years, but the point is that they are few and far between. The MLB draft is so hit-and-miss that anytime you get an above-average major leaguer, you have done well.

Steve4192
07-23-2006, 08:41 PM
Sounds like Paul Householder right now.
... or Eric Davis.

traderumor
07-23-2006, 09:55 PM
What Stubbs does this year is of little consequence. He has played a full college season and rookie ball is not much of a predictor either way. His most important seasons are the next two.

RedsFanatic
07-23-2006, 11:24 PM
This guy might not be a star, but he sure as hell isn't Matt Bush. Only time will tell if he will pan out, maybe he needs to make adjustments. The offseason is the time to make them, if he is still struggling this time next year then I will be worried.

princeton
07-24-2006, 08:16 AM
rookie ball is not much of a predictor either way.

tut, tut

failure to rake at Billings is a tremendous predictor

princeton
07-24-2006, 08:19 AM
Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. With a top-10 pick, you're looking for an impact player to come out as opposed to a quality defensive CF. Maybe I'm looking at this all wrong.

Mike Cameron is a terrific player. If Drew Stubbs is as good, then it was a worthy pick.

Redmachine2003
07-24-2006, 09:51 AM
It seems that the Pioneer league is more of a pitching league this year than a hitting league. In the past it has been more of a hitting league, Correct?

REDREAD
07-25-2006, 11:13 AM
I think a lot of people did not like this pick when it was made therefore some opinions are sure to be tilted against Stubbs no matter what he does. He has not looked great so far and has been outplayed by other members of the team (Parker and Heisey). But 21 is not ancient by any means and just a couple of days ago his batting average was at around .240 or so. Looks like he is making some adjustments so lets see where he is at the end of the year.

Yes, a lot of fans were primed up for the Reds to pick a college pitcher, and were disappointed with a college OF. Even worse, the college OF had amazing physical tools. Some people assume this means the guy's ceiling is Deion Sanders, but actually the best players in the game have simliar tools.

Stubbs was rated the second best position prospect in the draft. I think he was a great pick. I know we need pitching, but if you can get a possible impact CF in the draft, it's a good pick. Good up the middle players are just as rare as good starting pitching. (I know some people will disagree, but look at some of the ML rosters). It's not a bad idea to draft position players and then later trade them for pitching. As long as Wayne's guys draft promising players (as opposed to "signablity" guys), I'll be happy, regardless of the position they play.

There have been some other justifiable complaints about this year's draft, but I don't understand why people are upset about Stubbs and predicting failure for him. Just because there was one little blurb in a scouting report that doubted he could adjust to wood bats, doesn't mean the guy is doomed. I recall another small blurb about Travis Wood getting everyone upset as well, and he's working out fine.

REDREAD
07-25-2006, 11:15 AM
Scouts labeled him as a bad pick. .

Not all scouts. In all fairness, some rated him as the second best position player in the draft.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 11:18 AM
Stubbs, when drafted, was regarded as a terrific athlete and a potential GG CF who many wondered if he would ever hit well enough to make it to the majors. To this point he has done nothing to alleviate the concern and instead, while playing in a notorious hitters league, has only given cause for heightened concern.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 11:19 AM
Not all scouts. In all fairness, some rated him as the second best position player in the draft.thats because of a terrible draft for position players. The stuff I read said that with his big question mark he would have been a late first round or supplemental pick in most years.

REDREAD
07-25-2006, 11:23 AM
Maybe my expectations are high, but when a player gets drafted in the #8 spot, I expect a little more. That's what I meant by justifying his draft spot. Mike Cameron has had a nice career -- but he was also an 18th round pick w/ a career OPS in the high 700s. If Drew Stubbs ended up being Mike Cameron v. 2.0, that'd be good for the Reds, but it'd still represent poor value coming from the draft position he was taken in, IMO. .

I guess I disagree with you here. If the Reds could get a Mike Cameron level talent out of the first round every year, they'd be one of the better farm systems in baseball. Cameron had a great career, when you factor in his amazing defense. I think people underestimate the value of a premium defensive player sometimes, particularly one that can hit at an above average level. Obviously, not every player on the team has to slug like Dunn to contribute. Cameron was a huge part of the 1999 success.

I'll be happy as a clam if Stubbs becomes Cameron Jr. That would easily make him the best draft pick since Dunn. Consider how much a gold glove centerfielder would help our pitching.

edabbs44
07-25-2006, 11:26 AM
I'll be happy as a clam if Stubbs becomes Cameron Jr. That would easily make him the best draft pick since Dunn. Consider how much a gold glove centerfielder would help our pitching.

What about if Bailey pans out? I know it's a big if, but so is Stubbs.

princeton
07-25-2006, 11:31 AM
Stubbs pick reminds me a lot of the Dan Wilson pick in 1990, which was also too high for a non-bat but in hindsight turned out to be reasonable given the low quality of that draft's first round.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/dan-wilson.shtml

the real gem that round was Mike Mussina, taken 13 picks later. But Wilson was much better than most of the other selections.

REDREAD
07-25-2006, 11:31 AM
thats because of a terrible draft for position players. The stuff I read said that with his big question mark he would have been a late first round or supplemental pick in most years.

Fair enough, there was little position player talent to get. However, we have to draft the best guy we can this year. If Stubbs would've slid to the 4th round in better years, that's no reason to pass on him.

For whatever reason, Wayne's guys liked Stubbs better than the college arms that were available. Only time will tell. Personally, I'm glad we are changing strategy in the draft. We had about 5 years where it seemed we spent 75% of our high picks on pitchers, and we have almost nothing to show for it. Maybe it's better for our organization to focus on using high picks for position players, since we have had success developing those. In the long run, the purpose of the draft is to add talent. That talent can be traded for pitching later. We had to change the previous strategy, because the previous strategy has added virtually nothing marketable to our farm (other than Homer/Wood).

Maybe Stubbs will flop, but I'm not going to panic. If the scouts were right that his swing needed adjusted, then perhaps that's what they are doing in Billings and it will take time to see results. I like the guy's upside, and am excited about him.

REDREAD
07-25-2006, 11:32 AM
What about if Bailey pans out? I know it's a big if, but so is Stubbs.

I agree, Bailey might ultimately end up better than Stubbs. I was comparing a Mike Cameron clone to all the picks we've had that made it to the bigs. I didn't intend to imply that Homer was a bust.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 11:33 AM
Stubbs still has time, but not a lot of it. He needs to establish himself in AA in 2008 to have a decent shot at major league success.

Steve4192
07-25-2006, 03:15 PM
Stubbs still has time, but not a lot of it. He needs to establish himself in AA in 2008 to have a decent shot at major league success.

I disagree.

He doesn't have a lot of time if he wants to crank out a 10-15 year career, but he has plenty of time to have a short but productive career.

Not everyone has to be in the majors before their 25th birthday. Sometimes, it is better (for the team) to groom a guy for a five-year window and then let him go. Chris Sabo took his own sweet time getting to the majors, but he gave the Reds one heck a nice five-year run before he got expensive and his career fell apart. Chris Denorfia will probably never be remembered as an all-time great, but he might give the Reds an above average bat on the cheap for the next five years. Guys like Sabo & Denorfia have a TON of value for clubs operating on a budget.

All the Reds care about is getting quality production out of their draft picks, ESPECIALLY during their pre-FA years. Who cares what the guy does with the rest of his career after leaving Cincinnati?

Kc61
07-25-2006, 03:46 PM
I disagree.

He doesn't have a lot of time if he wants to crank out a 10-15 year career, but he has plenty of time to have a short but productive career.

Not everyone has to be in the majors before their 25th birthday. Sometimes, it is better (for the team) to groom a guy for a five-year window and then let him go.

All the Reds care about is getting quality production out of their draft picks, ESPECIALLY during their pre-FA years. Who cares what the guy does with the rest of his career after leaving Cincinnati?

I guess I disagree. Stubbs was the 8th highest pick in all of baseball. He was not a high school kid but a 21 year old from a top college program. The other top ten position player, Longoria, is now at High-A ball, hitting .365, and will certainly be at AA or higher next year. Stubbs is hitting 100 points lower in advanced Rookie ball.

If Stubbs has a short, productive major league career starting in his late 20's, as your post suggests, that may be ok for him, but it is not what you want from the 8th player in the draft.

People are predicting Stubbs will be like Cameron, great fielding, solid but not great hitter with some power. I hope so. But his hitting at Billings has been quite disappointing.

flyer85
07-25-2006, 04:49 PM
I disagree.

He doesn't have a lot of time if he wants to crank out a 10-15 year career, but he has plenty of time to have a short but productive career.
has nothing to do with length of career but having success in a career. Guys who haven't done well at AA or above by 23 are usually no better than fringe major league players at best. There are exceptions but if he wants to have the impact one would expect of a top 10 player Stubbs needs to move and move quickly after this season. What Bruce is doing at 19 in the Midwest League portends future success while what Stubbs is doing in the Pioneer League at 21 does not.

Reds have a current wonderful example in BJ, I'd say the odds are a lot better that Stubbs will be like BJ than being a productive everyday player in the majors.

Steve4192
07-25-2006, 09:39 PM
People are predicting Stubbs will be like Cameron, great fielding, solid but not great hitter with some power. I hope so.

Which is exactly why I brought up the concept of a short but productive career. Like Chris Sabo, Mike Cameron was a really good player for about five years. He is another example of a guy who was really productive in his pre-FA years and then imploded.

Guys like that don't get remembered 20 years from now, but they can be a vital component of a winning team during their peak years. If Stubbs gives the Reds five really good years at just the right time, he will have been a great pick.

BRM
07-28-2006, 11:52 AM
Updated numbers - .248/.358/.360. 16 walks, 37 K's in 141 plate appearances. He also has 13 steals and has been caught twice.

edabbs44
07-28-2006, 01:15 PM
It's kind of scary that Lutz and Watson have moved to Dayton and Stubbs is still lingering in Billings.

princeton
07-28-2006, 01:29 PM
It's kind of scary that Lutz and Watson have moved to Dayton and Stubbs is still lingering in Billings.

it IS scary. Challenge thy hitters. Coddle thy pitchers

Benihana
07-28-2006, 01:36 PM
Bring back Dan O'Brien... ONLY to run the drafts???:devil:

Say what you want about the guy but he DID have two very impressive drafts.

edabbs44
07-28-2006, 01:40 PM
Bring back Dan O'Brien... ONLY to run the drafts???:devil:

Say what you want about the guy but he DID have two very impressive drafts.
Sure did. This guy Buckley pulled a very questionable draft, especially when you look at the state of the Cincinnati pitching staff over the past [enter large number here] years. When I saw Stubbs' name come up I felt nauseous...like when you knew you failed a big test and are waiting to get the grade back and have that little hope that you might have got lucky and pulled a C or something. Then...WHAM! You got a 52.

BRM
07-28-2006, 01:43 PM
it IS scary. Challenge thy hitters. Coddle thy pitchers

Would you promote him right now, given his current numbers?

edabbs44
07-28-2006, 01:48 PM
Would you promote him right now, given his current numbers?
I would wait for him to put together a nice stretch with some power, then move him.

If he has ML ready speed and fielding, then they will have to make a decision on his bat sooner or later. Do they think more seasoning will make him into a legit hitter? If not, then start to move him.

Kc61
07-28-2006, 01:49 PM
it IS scary. Challenge thy hitters. Coddle thy pitchers

Sounds to me like young Mr. Stubbs is being challenged plenty right now. Frankly, it speaks volumes that he is not headed for Dayton and Lutz/Watson are.

Billings has a couple of hitters who could be in Dayton soon, particularly Heisey who has hit great. I think Loo should be at Dayton when healthy.

Reds draft may have been questionable at the top this year, but they did gain a lot of depth for the organization. A lot of pretty good looking prospects at Billings and GCL.

So, I'm not too critical of the draft overall. And maybe Stubbs will get it going soon.

flyer85
07-28-2006, 01:50 PM
Jay Bruce as an 18 year put up better numbers in the Pioneer League than Stubbs.

BRM
07-28-2006, 01:52 PM
I would wait for him to put together a nice stretch with some power, then move him.

If he has ML ready speed and fielding, then they will have to make a decision on his bat sooner or later. Do they think more seasoning will make him into a legit hitter? If not, then start to move him.

What if that stretch never happens? At some point, he needs to move up anyway, right?

edabbs44
07-28-2006, 02:01 PM
What if that stretch never happens? At some point, he needs to move up anyway, right?
My point exactly. As an organization, they have to make a decision what will be his greatest value for the big team: speed/glove or bat. Many have said his CF play is GG caliber already. So do you stick him in CF before his bat is ready and hope he catches up while he hits 8th? Or let him linger in the minors and, when/if he starts to hit, then bring him up? He might be 27 or 28 by then. So the FO might have a decision to make. I say he HAS to be in Dayton by year end and maybe Sarasota to start next year, with hopes Chatt by year end 07. But if they want his bat to progress, it might be a while.

princeton
07-28-2006, 02:04 PM
Would you promote him right now, given his current numbers?

no, but I wouldn't bring up the pitchers. Let 'em succeed where they are

Milton Loo is the promotion that I'd make. All the way to Dayton. Let's see what he does at night.

Make room with Jay Bruce, on his way to Sarasota

Kc61
07-28-2006, 02:39 PM
no, but I wouldn't bring up the pitchers. Let 'em succeed where they are

Milton Loo is the promotion that I'd make. All the way to Dayton. Let's see what he does at night.

Make room with Jay Bruce, on his way to Sarasota

I would agree, except that guys like Lutz and Watson started out too low to begin with. Given their age and background, each could well have started at Dayton after signing. So I don't think it is a big deal to promote them now. Justin Smith is another guy who probably should be at Dayton too.

I think Loo will move up when healthy.

As for Bruce, I don't mind if he stays at Dayton all year. I think the organization wants Dayton to have some young stars and that's ok. But starting next year he should move quickly.

REDREAD
07-28-2006, 02:40 PM
It's not going to kill Stubbs' career to let him finish the season at Billings.

You guys are a bit impatient, aren't you?

Most of us that liked the Stubbs' pick knew he wasn't going to be a future MVP.

Also, remember that some guys do make the big leagues later and still have decent careers. Freel didn't make it to the bigs for good until he was 27 or 28.

princeton
07-28-2006, 02:44 PM
I would agree, except...

you would agree except that you disagree?

that's cool. If you WANT to be wrong...

Kc61
07-28-2006, 02:56 PM
you would agree except that you disagree?

that's cool. If you WANT to be wrong...

I would normally agree about keeping young pitchers where they are in their first professional go around. In this case, however, the pitchers were slotted too low. This is particularly true for Lutz, who certainly should have started above GCL ball.

When someone like Lutz, a reasonably accomplished 21 year old college pitcher, is assigned to the Gulf Coast League, it is sometimes just to get his feet wet, or maybe because it is the only roster spot available. In that type of situation, I don't think it is overly aggressive to move him up, even in the first year.

princeton
07-28-2006, 03:13 PM
I don't think it is overly aggressive to move him up, even in the first year.

if he's a prospect, then he should be in rookie ball such as Billings.

if he's not a prospect, then I don't mind him being filler in Dayton, Sarasota, whatever

cincyinco
07-28-2006, 03:40 PM
Good lord, Stubbs is coming off a college season, and he's still playing ball. Lots of guys get the rest of the year off and go to instructional camp and wait until next season to even get going.

I'm going to point to Clevelands first round pick last year, Trevor Crowe. A college product, and a pretty darn good hitter coming out of college. He played after school(in the NYPL(short season), and didn't exactly set the world on fire with a .255 BA and a .345OB and a .392SLG. He did even worse when promoted to A ball.

Then this year, after he got some rest - low and behold he lit the lower minors on fire, got promoted to AA and was doing well there then got injured. OPSing over .900.

Look, i'm not saying Stubbs will have that path, but its likely he's tired a bit.. this half season means just about nothing. It just gets him assimilated. Give it TIME people.

Even Homer freaking phenom Bailey didn't do that great his first year in Dayton. Everyone was calling for his head. Would they do that this year? Noooo.

Baseball is a game of PATIENCE. Why don't you guys show some.

M2
07-28-2006, 03:49 PM
if he's a prospect, then he should be in rookie ball such as Billings.

if he's not a prospect, then I don't mind him being filler in Dayton, Sarasota, whatever

I tend to agree.

Though his inability to hit in Billings is big-time disconcerting. Generally speaking, if you can't hit there you can't hit anywhere.

mbgrayson
07-29-2006, 02:47 AM
Tonight Stubbs was 3 for 4, with a HR, his 2nd at Billings, and a double. His batting average is up to .264. His OBP is now .388, and he has 13 stolen bases in 35 games.

I think he will end up being o.k.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 02:24 PM
Tonight Stubbs was 3 for 4, with a HR, his 2nd at Billings, and a double. His batting average is up to .264. His OBP is now .388, and he has 13 stolen bases in 35 games.

I think he will end up being o.k.

I guess it's time to find a new thing to panic about :laugh:

flyer85
07-31-2006, 02:44 PM
I guess it's time to find a new thing to panic about :laugh:last night he went 0-4 with 3Ks.

REDREAD
07-31-2006, 02:50 PM
last night he went 0-4 with 3Ks.

So I guess the watch is back on...;)

BRM
08-01-2006, 12:08 PM
Updated numbers:

.252/.357/.378 for a .735 OPS.

Is Watson the only one to have been promoted from Billings to Dayton so far?

flyer85
08-01-2006, 01:11 PM
Updated numbers:

.252/.357/.378 for a .735 OPS.
That certainly isn't going to get him promoted from the uber-offensive Pioneer League.

BRM
08-01-2006, 01:14 PM
That certainly isn't going to get him promoted from the uber-offensive Pioneer League.

There are seven players with a higher OPS on the Billings roster.

dougdirt
08-03-2006, 08:27 PM
Well, Evan Longoria the 1st college hitter taken was just promoted to AA.
Tyler Colvin the 3rd college hitter chosen is in A ball.
Matt Antonelli the 4th college hitter chosen is in A ball.
Emmanual Burris the 5th college hitter taken is in A ball
Ronald Bourquin the 7th college hitter taken is in A ball.
Chad Huffman the 8th college hitter taken is in A ball.
Joshua Rodriguez the 9th college hitter taken is in A ball.
Robert Fontaine was the 11th college hitter taken, out a community college, is the only other top 11 college hitter taken that is in rookie ball along with Drew Stubbs.

2 players either have not yet signed, or have yet to appear in a game. Are the Reds coddling him, or is he taking the route of Brandon Roberts who played his first year in Billings then skipped over Dayton the next year? If the Reds would do that with a 7th round pick last year, what does it mean for a first round pick?

Steve4192
08-04-2006, 07:55 AM
I've decided for my own mental well-being I am going to ignore all Drew Stubbs related material until September of 2007. If I read any more I might be compelled to drive out to Montana with a sniper rifle and euthanize the poor kid, just to put him out of his misery and end all the kvetching.

edabbs44
08-04-2006, 09:13 AM
Updated numbers:

.252/.357/.378 for a .735 OPS.

Is Watson the only one to have been promoted from Billings to Dayton so far?
Lutz also...

camisadelgolf
08-04-2006, 03:11 PM
Is it possible that the Reds asked Drew Stubbs to work on some things and that that could attribute to some of the struggles he's had?

Everything that could be said about this has pretty much been said already, but I guess some people just like to be pessimistic. Anyway, I'll bet you that over 99 percent of baseball players, good or bad, have gone through struggles at some point in their careers. This is just another example. And if hitting over .250, gold glove-caliber defense, and a bunch of stolen bases while playing more baseball than you've ever played in your life is considered "struggling", I think he might be okay. Also, one might argue that hitting in a higher league, especially if you're an aggressive hitter like Stubbs, would be easier at times because in the league he's in, half the guys couldn't throw strikes if they tried.

edabbs44
08-04-2006, 03:40 PM
Is it possible that the Reds asked Drew Stubbs to work on some things and that that could attribute to some of the struggles he's had?

Everything that could be said about this has pretty much been said already, but I guess some people just like to be pessimistic. Anyway, I'll bet you that over 99 percent of baseball players, good or bad, have gone through struggles at some point in their careers. This is just another example. And if hitting over .250, gold glove-caliber defense, and a bunch of stolen bases while playing more baseball than you've ever played in your life is considered "struggling", I think he might be okay. Also, one might argue that hitting in a higher league, especially if you're an aggressive hitter like Stubbs, would be easier at times because in the league he's in, half the guys couldn't throw strikes if they tried.
Valid, but if Stubbs is an "aggressive hitter" and swings at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, then he better tone it down since pitchers are also smarter in the higher levels. And he won't see much to hit.