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View Full Version : Adam Dunn (or why BA doesn't matter)



RedsManRick
07-16-2006, 04:17 PM
I was just checking Dunn's game log to check this homer tear and saw something interesting. The following is plagued with sample size issues (and other things such as where he was hitting in the batting order). However, I think it illustrates some macro level points that are often missed by people who don't go by Cyclone or Steel, or don't have the interest in digging in to the piles of evidence they provide along this line.

April: .265/.432/.614 (.182 ISO SLG, 17 RBI, .20 RBI/AB)
May: .212/.328/.535 (.207 ISO SLG, 15 RBI, .15 RBI/AB)
June: .221/.368/.537 (.169 ISO SLG, 20 RBI, .21 RBI/AB)
July: .319/.360/.553 (.193 ISO SLG, 11 RBI, .23 RBI/AB)

This does NOT include today's 2-3 with a walk and a homer. A couple of interesting things come up here. Firstly, Dunn's extra base hits don't slump. Sometimes he gets more singles or a few more (or less) walks, but he always hits for power. Secondly, his RBI rate is fairly consistent. Guess what? These things are related.

Even when Dunn is "slumping" and hitting .212 for the month, he still drives people in because when he gets hits, they accomplish things.

Then there's something else to check out, runs. Let's just look at OBP.

April: .432, 25 runs (.23 R/PA)
May: .328, 13 runs (.11 R/PA)
June: .368, 19 runs (.16 R/PA)
July: .360, 8 runs (.16 R/PA)

So when we see that Dunn is on a tear and still batting under .250, let's remember the following 2 points:

1.) Isolated Slugging % = driving in runs
2.) On Base % = scoring runs

At the most base level, these are the two things a player can accomplish offensively and Dunn is very good at both.

Ravenlord
07-16-2006, 04:28 PM
then there's also this to go along with it

Month/SecA
April/651
May/505
June/547
July/370 (that includes today)

edabbs44
07-16-2006, 04:40 PM
No offense to anyone here, but this horse gets beaten as much as the other side of the conversation. Again, no offense.

Marc D
07-16-2006, 04:43 PM
What I notice is that his worst month(May) was also the teams worst offensive month.

Kc61
07-16-2006, 04:44 PM
No point to debate this further. Everyone has different stats they think are most important. Besides, Dunn's BA is increasing. It was below .220 and now it's .248. I think he's hitting great.

RedsManRick
07-16-2006, 05:11 PM
No offense to anyone here, but this horse gets beaten as much as the other side of the conversation. Again, no offense.

Oh well, there are plenty of horses to go around.

TOBTTReds
07-16-2006, 06:09 PM
I think there is little difference because he is now batting 2nd. No one seems to be on base in front of him. Lately it has been the pitcher, Denorfia and Wise batting in front of him. Who in the world is he going to drive in?? Bat him 3rd I say, let someone else get on in front of him.

reds44
07-16-2006, 06:16 PM
I think there is little difference because he is now batting 2nd. No one seems to be on base in front of him. Lately it has been the pitcher, Denorfia and Wise batting in front of him. Who in the world is he going to drive in?? Bat him 3rd I say, let someone else get on in front of him.
When Hatteberg plays 1st:
Deno/Freel
Hatte
Dunn
Junior
Edwin
BP
Clayton
LaRue

When RA plays 1st:
Freel/Deno
Dunn
Griffey
Edwin
Rich
BP
Clayton
LaRue

When Hatteberg doesn't play, this team doesn't have a 2 hitter. You could put Edwin there, but he needs to be protecting Griffey or Dunn so they get to see something to hit. So when Rich plays I say leave Dunn in the 2 hole.

Either way Narron must use our best offensive players as often as possible. I wouldn't mind see Rich take some of Clayton's time at SS either.

smith288
07-17-2006, 03:36 PM
Dunn strikes out too much.

:evil:

Reds1
07-17-2006, 05:31 PM
Dunn strikes out too much.

:evil:

And he never hits sac flies! ;)

ghettochild
07-17-2006, 07:33 PM
he's not scrappy enough!