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Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 02:24 PM
I know, I know--on the surface, it seems as though the decision isn't a decision at all--whether to root for the Cards or Braves in this series. But history tells us that the Braves are indomitable, that, even 6 games under .500, they are still very, very likely to jump up and win the wild card. After all, the Braves just got finished dominating the Reds in every conceivable fashion two weekends ago.

I know this much: both teams will be in the chase on September 30th. With whom would you rather contend?

Me? I'm pulling for the Cards. The Braves scare the lightning out of me.

zombie-a-go-go
07-17-2006, 02:27 PM
I know, I know--on the surface, it seems as though the decision isn't a decision at all--whether to root for the Cards or Braves in this series. But history tells us that the Braves are indomitable, that, even 6 games under .500, they are still very, very likely to jump up and win the wild card. After all, the Braves just got finished dominating the Reds in every conceivable fashion two weekends ago.

I know this much: both teams will be in the chase on September 30th. With whom would you rather contend?

Me? I'm pulling for the Cards. The Braves scare the lightning out of me.

I won't root for either, since I loathe the Braves, but I'll want ATL to sweep STL this series. You don't have to worry about the WC if you win your division. :cool:

Tommyjohn25
07-17-2006, 02:30 PM
I'm rooting for the Braves (did I just say that?). If the Reds win the division, and the Braves win the WC, you know that the Braves will lose, they always lose in the playoffs. Why not against the Reds? :)

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 02:32 PM
The Cards are starting to put it together, though. They destroyed the Dodgers over the weekend, and Pujols looks primed and ready for another scorched earth campaign. Hancock, Looper, Izzy, and Wainwright have rounded into world-beater shape. Yeah, their rotation remains ho-hum, but you really only need two starters and a killer bully, and the Cards have that in spades.

In short, I don't see the Reds catching the Cards. But I like that the Braves have spotted the Reds 5 1/2 games; I think that's a lead that the Reds have a chance of maintaining.

redsmetz
07-17-2006, 02:44 PM
This one is a no brainer, IMO. In this series, I want the Braves to win as many of the games as they can. In the Cards-Dodgers series, it was fine that the Cards won while we did too because it helped us in the Wild Card race. I'd have rather picked up a game on the Cards, but we can do that now if the Braves beat them.

Tommyjohn25
07-17-2006, 02:48 PM
and Pujols looks primed and ready for another scorched earth campaign.

:laugh: :laugh: FCB I don't always agree with everything you say, but I think you make me laugh out loud at least once a day with quotes like this one. :laugh: :laugh:

And I kind of agree on the rest, I think the Cards are hot right now, kind of like the Reds. But I don't think they are good enough to run off and hide with the division this year, but we'll have to see what they do at the deadline. If anything.

RedFanAlways1966
07-17-2006, 02:49 PM
If the Reds win the division, and the Braves win the WC, you know that the Braves will lose, they always lose in the playoffs. Why not against the Reds? :)

Where were you in 1995, Tommyjohn25?!?!? ;)


Go Braves! Beat those Cards. Sweep those Cards.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 02:49 PM
I guess I look at it this way: if all three teams (Cards, Braves, Reds) had the same record right now, and only the top two finishers would make the postseason, I think both the Cards and Braves beat the Reds handily. However, the Reds have the benefit of being 5 1/2 games out in front of Atlanta (who couldn't possibly be playing better baseball right now). I think the Reds can survive the Braves if they (the Reds) can put together one more nice win streak this season.

Tommyjohn25
07-17-2006, 02:51 PM
Where were you in 1995, Tommyjohn25?!?!? ;)



I know I know, I guess I figure that we owe 'em one.;)

redsfan30
07-17-2006, 03:16 PM
Until it becomes clearly defined who you're rooting for and against, I'm just concerned with winning our own games and letting everything else fall into place. A month from now is when you start looking at individual teams/situations but if you don't take care of your own business you don't have to even worry about that.

Strikes Out Looking
07-17-2006, 03:36 PM
I'm rooting for the Braves to beat the Cardinals this week.

However (and not that I'd ever wish an injury on a player) if in defeating the Cardinals, a few of the Braves players end up on the disabled list for various reasons, I wouldn't be too upset.

The_jbh
07-17-2006, 03:38 PM
You don't have to worry about the wildcard if u win your division, the WC should never be your goal... gotta root for those bravos.

Marc D
07-17-2006, 04:17 PM
It's still a bit early for the scoreboard watching IMO.

What I like about the rest of July is that the Mets and Astros series line up to have 2 of 3 started by Harang and Arroyo.

What I don't like about the rest of July is that all 6 games vs the Brewers look like pure EZ, Milton, Mays games.

It might not fall exactly like that but it looks like it right now and given our past with the Brewers, I'm a bit concerned.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 05:00 PM
It's still a bit early for the scoreboard watching IMO.

.

Maybe.

But watching second-half contenders duke it out can reveal some things--if you know what to look for.

Phil in BG
07-17-2006, 05:12 PM
I can't stand the Braves, but there is one team I dislike even more.

KronoRed
07-17-2006, 06:14 PM
Scum...both of em ;)

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:08 PM
The beat rolls on for the slugging Bravos--McCann hits a granny off the immortal Jeff Weaver.

Joseph
07-17-2006, 08:09 PM
Followed by a triple for Francouer.

RedLegSuperStar
07-17-2006, 08:10 PM
The beat rolls on for the slugging Bravos--McCann hits a granny off the immortal Jeff Weaver.

65 pitches and Weaver isn't out of the third

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:11 PM
I'm still at the BiL's house, so I have unlimited access to cable--and so I'm watching the game, and so I'm thinkin': Weaver's toast.

Nobody's kiddin.

5-0 Bravos. Beware the undead.

Joseph
07-17-2006, 08:14 PM
The braves are only 5 1/2 back of us for the wild card, beware indeed.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:15 PM
The braves are only 5 1/2 back of us for the wild card, beware indeed.

Hence, the thread.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:22 PM
What the last several games I've watched have taught me is: 1) the Braves are in no way dead. They play decent defense, they hit like mad, and they have just enough starting pitching. 2) The Dodgers are a non-factor--yeah, the got offense but nothing else. 3. The Cardinals have an absolute bear of a bullpen.

flyer85
07-17-2006, 08:26 PM
Weaver getting pounded

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:26 PM
The Braves are teeing off on Weaver: Betemit goes deep. 6-0.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:27 PM
Weaver getting pounded

And it's every bit as bad as it sounds. They are hitting bullets off him.

RBA
07-17-2006, 08:30 PM
The Reds need to just win the rest of their games and they won't have to worry about anyone else. ;) Seriously, number 1 thing to do is try to win your division. Go BRAVES!

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:30 PM
A Jones just hit a screamer that nearly snapped off Luna's hand at the wrist.

I'll say this for Wayne: he wisely stayed away from the prancing fecal matter that is Jeff Weaver.

Wise choice.

Joseph
07-17-2006, 08:37 PM
Edmonds just goes yard for the Cards first hit.

Tommyjohn25
07-17-2006, 08:37 PM
Jimmy boy with a solo shot to make it 6-1. Somewhere, George Grande is beaming.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:44 PM
7-1, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out. Ready to become a laugher.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 08:46 PM
9-1. Cards are human again. Braves may not be.

Joseph
07-17-2006, 08:52 PM
So long as we pass the Cards....of course I guess we'd face the Bravos in round 1 wouldnt we?

Caveat Emperor
07-17-2006, 08:53 PM
9-1. Cards are human again. Braves may not be.

Jeff Weaver is kyrptonite to good baseball.

37red
07-17-2006, 09:01 PM
It's real simple, I want the Reds to win the division not have to struggle for the wild card. I'll take the wild card and be happy with it don't take me wrong, but I'm going for the division, so I'm hoping the Braves sweep the Cardinals. Every year I hope the Braves along with the Cowboys and Yankees lose to whoever they're playing, but right now let the Braves kick the what ever it is out of the Cards.

Swampturkey
07-17-2006, 10:12 PM
Take Weaver. Please. You can have him for free. Actually, I will PAY you to take him. Anything you want, it's yours as long as you take this guy away from my Cardinals.

I was against aquiring him 3 or 4 years ago when the rumors began. I was against acquiring him when we actually did it and I'm really really really wishing that Jocketty had passed. I don't like Weaver. Never have, never will.

I'll even throw in Pujols if you take him. Not Albert, but Wilfredo...the young cousin of Albert that we drafted last year.

Fullboat
07-17-2006, 10:23 PM
Take Weaver. Please. You can have him for free. Actually, I will PAY you to take him. Anything you want, it's yours as long as you take this guy away from my Cardinals.

I was against aquiring him 3 or 4 years ago when the rumors began. I was against acquiring him when we actually did it and I'm really really really wishing that Jocketty had passed. I don't like Weaver. Never have, never will.

I'll even throw in Pujols if you take him. Not Albert, but Wilfredo...the young cousin of Albert that we drafted last year.

Hey Swampturkey what happened to the Cards forum?looks like it got hacked.:eek: As for Weaver no thanks:D we have his
cousin Joe Mayday Mays.:)

Swampturkey
07-17-2006, 10:36 PM
yup, we got hacked. I've been talking to our admins and they're working on it but they are having a lot of trouble.

Good thing it happened on a night when I didn't really need to discuss our lovely game anyway. ;)

Swampturkey
07-17-2006, 10:45 PM
Will you take Weaver if I throw in A.J. Pujols? He has a pretty good swing and he can make a routine play in the outfield!

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20060710/capt.pnc11407102255.all_star_home_run_derby__baseb all_pnc114.jpg

AND he's reeeeally cute!

smith288
07-17-2006, 11:32 PM
9-1. Cards are human again. Braves may not be.
First it was the Astros...then the Brewers...then the Cards. When is it the Reds turn to be a candidate to win the division in your opinion?

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 11:33 PM
First it was the Astros...then the Brewers...then the Cards. When is it the Reds turn to be a candidate to win the division in your opinion?

Not making trades like the one Wayne just made wouldn't hurt matters. And don't kid yourself, the Brewers are still very much in this thing.

Patrick Bateman
07-17-2006, 11:33 PM
The Cardinals have an absolute bear of a bullpen.

Looks like that bear sh%t in the woods tonight. Hancock's DIPS ERA is approaching 5.

Falls City Beer
07-17-2006, 11:37 PM
Looks like that bear sh%t in the woods tonight. Hancock's DIPS ERA is approaching 5.

The Cards threw their scrubs out there, excepting Hancock. And yet, even after his "implosion," Hancock's OPSA is still well below .700.

You can throw out DIPS all you want, but Hancock has been the picture of productive for the Cardinals all season long, far better than any pitcher in the Reds bullpen--or virtually any bullpen in the Central for that matter. It may not last forever, but it's working brilliantly to this point.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2006, 12:10 AM
The Cards threw their scrubs out there, excepting Hancock. And yet, even after his "implosion," Hancock's OPSA is still well below .700.

You can throw out DIPS all you want, but Hancock has been the picture of productive for the Cardinals all season long, far better than any pitcher in the Reds bullpen--or virtually any bullpen in the Central for that matter. It may not last forever, but it's working brilliantly to this point.

Best bullpener in the Central???

Surely not better than Capellan or Shouse???:laugh:

His high DIPS ERA and low OPSA means he's been very, very lucky this year.

He's got a BABIP of .194 this year, so he's relying on extreme luck to keep that ERA down. But it's starting to rise, as it always does as you get a larger sample size. He's giving up HR's in bunches, and only a low BABIP is keeping him alive.

He's a 4.5-5 ERA type bullpen guy, slightly below average. And certainly not the top bullpen guy in the Central.

RFS62
07-18-2006, 07:31 AM
http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20060710/capt.pnc11407102255.all_star_home_run_derby__baseb all_pnc114.jpg






The plane, Boss!!! The plane!!!!

Falls City Beer
07-18-2006, 08:36 AM
Best bullpener in the Central???

Surely not better than Capellan or Shouse???:laugh:

His high DIPS ERA and low OPSA means he's been very, very lucky this year.

He's got a BABIP of .194 this year, so he's relying on extreme luck to keep that ERA down. But it's starting to rise, as it always does as you get a larger sample size. He's giving up HR's in bunches, and only a low BABIP is keeping him alive.

He's a 4.5-5 ERA type bullpen guy, slightly below average. And certainly not the top bullpen guy in the Central.

I don't think you understand--BABIP is predictive, but it doesn't tell the tale of the tape: so far, for four months, Hancock has been incredibly helpful to the Cards' success. It won't last, I'm sure, but name a Reds' relief pitcher who has been as effective at preventing runs from scoring this season.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2006, 11:19 AM
I don't think you understand--BABIP is predictive, but it doesn't tell the tale of the tape: so far, for four months, Hancock has been incredibly helpful to the Cards' success. It won't last, I'm sure, but name a Reds' relief pitcher who has been as effective at preventing runs from scoring this season.

I understand it completely. What it tells you is how good a pitcher has actually been so far.

I'll say with the assistance of luck hancock has pitched well so far this year, but with the assistance of luck the Reds also acquired one of the best set-up men in baseball in Majewski. Hancock really has not been very good this season, otherwise his DIPS wouldn't be approaching 5.00. The reason he's pitched this well is random. If Chris Hammonds and Mike Burns had his kind of luck we would probably be our 2 "best" relief pitchers right now. While if Hancock had their luck, he would have been DFA'd months ago.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2006, 11:42 AM
I understand it completely. What it tells you is how good a pitcher has actually been so far.

I'll say with the assistance of luck hancock has pitched well so far this year, but with the assistance of luck the Reds also acquired one of the best set-up men in baseball in Majewski. Hancock really has not been very good this season, otherwise his DIPS wouldn't be approaching 5.00. The reason he's pitched this well is random. If Chris Hammonds and Mike Burns had his kind of luck we would probably be our 2 "best" relief pitchers right now. While if Hancock had their luck, he would have been DFA'd months ago.

Majewski is not one of the best set-up men in baseball.

And Hancock, though certainly greatly assisted by the Cardinals' excellent defense, has performed this season. Would he have performed as well with a different defense? I don't know, and I don't care. He's performed well, luck or no. Who cares about next year or whether his luck will continue? This year he's performed well for 50 innings.

I find the speculative nature of DIPS ERA to be on a par with Range Factor. OPSA tells me how a player performs with a relatively stable set of defensive factors (which the Cardinals possess) behind him. OPSA is the better and more revealing of the two stats. And Hancock's OPSA is very, very good. It may not be as good with the Reds' defense behind him. I don't know and I don't care.

Patrick Bateman
07-18-2006, 11:58 AM
Majewski is not one of the best set-up men in baseball.

If you want to look at his career ERA (3.41) and OPSA (.697) he's definitely one of the better ones, but that's a reason right now why I don't look at just those 2 numbers to decide how good a pitcher is.


And Hancock, though certainly greatly assisted by the Cardinals' excellent defense, has performed this season. Would he have performed as well with a different defense? I don't know, and I don't care. He's performed well, luck or no. Who cares about next year or whether his luck will continue? This year he's performed well for 50 innings.

I don't call that Hancock succeeding. I call that the St. Louis defense succeeding or whatever the reason is. Hancock has had success through complete randomness. Sometimes it works sometimes it wont. He's not really performed very well up to this point. Other factors he has no control of are the reasons for success. I don't give points to Hancock for that.


I find the speculative nature of DIPS ERA to be on a par with Range Factor. OPSA tells me how a player performs with a relatively stable set of defensive factors (which the Cardinals possess) behind him. OPSA is the better and more revealing of the two stats. And Hancock's OPSA is very, very good. It may not be as good with the Reds' defense behind him. I don't know and I don't care.

The reason for DIPS is to find out how good a pitcher is independent of other factors. The fact that St. Louis has a better defense than Cincy is not a very good reason to suggest that Hancock is good. It shows that a great St. Louis defense can make below average pitchers look good sometimes. It's like comparing RBI's. Some guys may get lot's of RBI's playing is stacked line-ups where there are lots of guys on base and lots of opportunities w/RISP while the other guy may be in the Royals' line-up. The fact the rest of the line-up is better doesn't neccesarily make the 1st guy better.

Falls City Beer
07-18-2006, 12:30 PM
If you want to look at his career ERA (3.41) and OPSA (.697) he's definitely one of the better ones, but that's a reason right now why I don't look at just those 2 numbers to decide how good a pitcher is.



I don't call that Hancock succeeding. I call that the St. Louis defense succeeding or whatever the reason is. Hancock has had success through complete randomness. Sometimes it works sometimes it wont. He's not really performed very well up to this point. Other factors he has no control of are the reasons for success. I don't give points to Hancock for that.



The reason for DIPS is to find out how good a pitcher is independent of other factors. The fact that St. Louis has a better defense than Cincy is not a very good reason to suggest that Hancock is good. It shows that a great St. Louis defense can make below average pitchers look good sometimes. It's like comparing RBI's. Some guys may get lot's of RBI's playing is stacked line-ups where there are lots of guys on base and lots of opportunities w/RISP while the other guy may be in the Royals' line-up. The fact the rest of the line-up is better doesn't neccesarily make the 1st guy better.


As I've stated or intimated several times, I'm not looking for Hancock to continue what he's doing. Nor would I want to pick the guy up in the offseason to help the Reds bullpen. But Hancock's done the job well enough to this point, luck or no. I'm sure his ERA will reflect soon enough what his DIPS is suggesting. A ton of things goes into a sub .300 OBAgainst--only some of it is luck.

Matt700wlw
07-18-2006, 03:00 PM
Braves...Reds winning the NL Central still isn't out of the picture

Swampturkey
07-18-2006, 07:59 PM
On the topic of Hancock, his era doesn't give the whole story. He'll have like 3 very good outtings followed by one really bad outting that balloons his era up. Then he'll have another few good outtings and then a bad one again.

Overall, he hasn't been bad just not as good as Looper and Wainwright have been for us.