Pythagorean W/L and Yearly AL/NL Pennant Winners

[Cyclone792]

EDIT: See Post #12 for the full list of all 322 playoff teams in MLB history, not just the AL/NL Pennant Winners as listed in this post.

This is just something I found interesting and decided to have some fun with ... FWIW, this is also a good chance for everybody to realize who some of the greatest teams in baseball history are.

Right now, the Reds currently reside with a 49-44 record - 4 games back of St. Louis, but 2.5 games up in the NL Wildcard - but they've still been outscored on the season thus far. Our runs scored total is an impressive 469 runs (5.04 runs per game), but our runs allowed total is an ugly 477 runs (5.13 runs per game).

Tally it up, and that's a pythagorean W/L record pace of 80-82, and that's a record that just screams mediocrity. For those of you unfamiliar with pythagorean W/L, it is your expected won/loss record based off your runs scored/allowed totals.

All this got me to thinking how many AL and NL Pennant Winners - or World Series participants - have been outscored for the regular season, and that's a pretty short list that starts and ends with the 1987 World Champion Minnesota Twins (hmmm ... coincidence?).

Anyhow, how about the rest of the list? Is there anybody close? If the Reds finish the 2006 season still being outscored, but somehow still make the playoffs and then somehow come out victorious in both the LDS and LCS to reach the World Series, how much history would they be going against?

Now obviously before the era of LCS and LDS play, the chances of a team winning the AL or NL flag while being outscored was pretty much zero. Since the advent of LCS and LDS play, the chances are a bit more likely, though still very slim since a team's odds of making the postseason while being outscored are slim, plus they'd have to win one or two rounds of additional playoff series to reach the World Series.

All that said, here's the final list with every team that's ever played in a World Series since the very first World Series in 1903. Columns listed left to right are Year, Team, Runs Scored Total, Runs Allowed Total, the +/- difference of runs scored/allowed, Pythagorean Winning Percentage, Pythagorean Wins, and Pythagorean Losses ...

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1906 Chicago Cubs 705 381 324 0.755 122 40
1939 New York Yankees 967 556 411 0.734 119 43
1927 New York Yankees 975 599 376 0.709 115 47
1942 New York Yankees 801 507 294 0.698 113 49
1944 St. Louis Cardinals 772 490 282 0.697 113 49
1942 St. Louis Cardinals 755 482 273 0.695 113 49
1909 Pittsburgh Pirates 699 447 252 0.694 112 50
1904 New York Giants 744 476 268 0.694 112 50
1905 New York Giants 778 505 273 0.688 111 51
1910 Philadelphia A's 673 441 232 0.684 111 51

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1969 Baltimore Orioles 779 517 262 0.679 110 52
1954 Cleveland Indians 746 504 242 0.672 109 53
1948 Cleveland Indians 840 568 272 0.672 109 53
1998 New York Yankees 965 656 309 0.670 108 54
1912 Boston Red Sox 799 544 255 0.669 108 54
1907 Chicago Cubs 572 390 182 0.668 108 54
1929 Philadelphia A's 901 615 286 0.668 108 54
1953 New York Yankees 801 547 254 0.668 108 54
1937 New York Yankees 979 671 308 0.666 108 54
1936 New York Yankees 1065 731 334 0.666 108 54

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1912 New York Giants 823 571 252 0.661 107 55
1919 Cincinnati Reds 577 401 176 0.661 107 55
1975 Cincinnati Reds 840 586 254 0.659 107 55
1911 Philadelphia A's 861 601 260 0.659 107 55
1943 St. Louis Cardinals 679 475 204 0.658 107 55
1910 Chicago Cubs 712 499 213 0.657 106 56
1974 Los Angeles Dodgers 798 561 237 0.656 106 56
1935 Chicago Cubs 847 597 250 0.655 106 56
1914 Philadelphia A's 749 529 220 0.654 106 56
1917 Chicago White Sox 656 464 192 0.653 106 56

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1903 Boston Pilgrims 708 504 204 0.651 105 57
1971 Baltimore Orioles 742 530 212 0.649 105 57
1947 New York Yankees 794 568 226 0.649 105 57
1911 New York Giants 756 542 214 0.648 105 57
1917 New York Giants 635 457 178 0.646 105 57
1953 Brooklyn Dodgers 955 689 266 0.645 105 57
1932 New York Yankees 1002 724 278 0.644 104 58
1995 Cleveland Indians 840 607 233 0.644 104 58
1935 Detroit Tigers 919 665 254 0.644 104 58
1945 Chicago Cubs 735 532 203 0.644 104 58

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1970 Baltimore Orioles 792 574 218 0.643 104 58
1941 Brooklyn Dodgers 800 581 219 0.642 104 58
1931 Philadelphia A's 858 626 232 0.640 104 58
1918 Chicago Cubs 538 393 145 0.640 104 58
1968 Detroit Tigers 671 492 179 0.638 103 59
1938 New York Yankees 966 710 256 0.637 103 59
1956 New York Yankees 857 631 226 0.637 103 59
1986 New York Mets 783 578 205 0.635 103 59
1957 New York Yankees 723 534 189 0.635 103 59
1976 Cincinnati Reds 857 633 224 0.635 103 59

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1908 Chicago Cubs 624 461 163 0.635 103 59
1934 Detroit Tigers 958 708 250 0.635 103 59
1961 New York Yankees 827 612 215 0.634 103 59
1909 Detroit Tigers 666 493 173 0.634 103 59
1949 Brooklyn Dodgers 879 651 228 0.634 103 59
1913 Philadelphia A's 794 592 202 0.631 102 60
1955 New York Yankees 762 569 193 0.631 102 60
1940 Cincinnati Reds 707 528 179 0.630 102 60
1921 New York Yankees 948 708 240 0.630 102 60
1915 Boston Red Sox 668 499 169 0.630 102 60

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1924 New York Giants 857 641 216 0.630 102 60
1920 Cleveland Indians 857 642 215 0.629 102 60
1946 Boston Red Sox 792 594 198 0.629 102 60
1954 New York Giants 732 550 182 0.628 102 60
1913 New York Giants 684 515 169 0.627 102 60
1931 St. Louis Cardinals 815 614 201 0.627 102 60
1923 New York Yankees 823 622 201 0.625 101 61
1950 New York Yankees 914 691 223 0.625 101 61
1972 Oakland A's 604 457 147 0.625 101 61
2002 Anaheim Angels 851 644 207 0.625 101 61

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1977 Los Angeles Dodgers 769 582 187 0.625 101 61
1921 New York Giants 840 637 203 0.624 101 61
1955 Brooklyn Dodgers 857 650 207 0.624 101 61
1971 Pittsburgh Pirates 788 599 189 0.623 101 61
1958 New York Yankees 759 577 182 0.623 101 61
1941 New York Yankees 830 631 199 0.623 101 61
1946 St. Louis Cardinals 712 545 167 0.620 100 62
1985 St. Louis Cardinals 747 572 175 0.620 100 62
1963 New York Yankees 714 547 167 0.620 100 62
1952 New York Yankees 727 557 170 0.620 100 62

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1928 New York Yankees 894 685 209 0.619 100 62
1904 Boston Pilgrims 608 466 142 0.619 100 62
1907 Detroit Tigers 694 532 162 0.619 100 62
1949 New York Yankees 829 637 192 0.618 100 62
1979 Baltimore Orioles 757 582 175 0.618 100 62
2004 St. Louis Cardinals 855 659 196 0.617 100 62
1929 Chicago Cubs 982 758 224 0.616 100 62
1922 New York Giants 852 658 194 0.616 100 62
1903 Pittsburgh Pirates 793 613 180 0.616 100 62
1988 Oakland A's 800 620 180 0.615 100 62

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1965 Minnesota Twins 774 600 174 0.614 100 62
1984 Detroit Tigers 829 643 186 0.614 99 63
1939 Cincinnati Reds 767 595 172 0.614 99 63
1990 Oakland A's 733 570 163 0.613 99 63
1952 Brooklyn Dodgers 775 603 172 0.613 99 63
1951 New York Yankees 798 621 177 0.613 99 63
1930 St. Louis Cardinals 1004 784 220 0.611 99 63
1933 Washington Senators 850 665 185 0.610 99 63
1977 New York Yankees 831 651 180 0.610 99 63
1925 Pittsburgh Pirates 912 715 197 0.610 99 63

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1962 San Francisco Giants 878 690 188 0.608 99 63
1915 Philadelphia Phillies 589 463 126 0.608 99 63
2002 San Francisco Giants 783 616 167 0.608 98 64
1999 Atlanta Braves 840 661 179 0.608 98 64
1976 New York Yankees 730 575 155 0.607 98 64
1972 Cincinnati Reds 707 557 150 0.607 98 64
1928 St. Louis Cardinals 807 636 171 0.607 98 64
1978 Los Angeles Dodgers 727 573 154 0.607 98 64
1930 Philadelphia A's 951 751 200 0.606 98 64
1905 Philadelphia A's 623 492 131 0.606 98 64

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1948 Boston Braves 739 584 155 0.606 98 64
1964 New York Yankees 730 577 153 0.606 98 64
1981 Los Angeles Dodgers 450 356 94 0.606 98 64
1978 New York Yankees 735 582 153 0.605 98 64
1957 Milwaukee Braves 772 613 159 0.604 98 64
1923 New York Giants 854 679 175 0.603 98 64
1966 Baltimore Orioles 755 601 154 0.603 98 64
1974 Oakland A's 689 551 138 0.601 97 65
1920 Brooklyn Dodgers 660 528 132 0.601 97 65
1919 Chicago White Sox 667 534 133 0.600 97 65

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1967 St. Louis Cardinals 695 557 138 0.600 97 65
1958 Milwaukee Braves 675 541 134 0.600 97 65
1918 Boston Red Sox 474 380 94 0.600 97 65
1982 Milwaukee Brewers 891 717 174 0.598 97 65
1916 Brooklyn Dodgers 585 471 114 0.598 97 65
1927 Pittsburgh Pirates 817 659 158 0.597 97 65
1925 Washington Senators 829 669 160 0.597 97 65
1906 Chicago White Sox 570 460 110 0.597 97 65
1940 Detroit Tigers 888 717 171 0.597 97 65
1960 Pittsburgh Pirates 734 593 141 0.596 97 65

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1966 Los Angeles Dodgers 606 490 116 0.596 97 65
1989 Oakland A's 712 576 136 0.596 97 65
2004 Boston Red Sox 949 768 181 0.596 96 66
1968 St. Louis Cardinals 583 472 111 0.595 96 66
1933 New York Giants 636 515 121 0.595 96 66
1943 New York Yankees 669 542 127 0.595 96 66
1973 Oakland A's 758 615 143 0.594 96 66
1924 Washington Senators 755 613 142 0.594 96 66
1999 New York Yankees 900 731 169 0.594 96 66
1981 New York Yankees 421 343 78 0.593 96 66

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1922 New York Yankees 758 618 140 0.592 96 66
1983 Baltimore Orioles 799 652 147 0.592 96 66
2003 New York Yankees 877 716 161 0.592 96 66
1951 New York Giants 781 641 140 0.589 95 67
1934 St. Louis Cardinals 799 656 143 0.589 95 67
1937 New York Giants 732 602 130 0.589 95 67
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks 818 677 141 0.586 95 67
1979 Pittsburgh Pirates 775 643 132 0.585 95 67
1926 St. Louis Cardinals 817 678 139 0.585 95 67
1962 New York Yankees 817 680 137 0.583 94 68

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1914 Boston Braves 657 548 109 0.582 94 68
1992 Atlanta Braves 682 569 113 0.582 94 68
1956 Brooklyn Dodgers 720 601 119 0.582 94 68
1936 New York Giants 742 621 121 0.581 94 68
1995 Atlanta Braves 645 540 105 0.581 94 68
1996 Atlanta Braves 773 648 125 0.580 94 68
1938 Chicago Cubs 713 598 115 0.580 94 68
1991 Minnesota Twins 776 652 124 0.579 94 68
1960 New York Yankees 746 627 119 0.579 94 68
1926 New York Yankees 847 713 134 0.578 94 68

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1993 Philadelphia Phillies 877 740 137 0.577 93 69
1908 Detroit Tigers 647 547 100 0.576 93 69
1998 San Diego Padres 749 635 114 0.575 93 69
1967 Boston Red Sox 722 614 108 0.574 93 69
1969 New York Mets 632 541 91 0.571 92 70
1965 Los Angeles Dodgers 608 521 87 0.570 92 70
1980 Kansas City Royals 809 694 115 0.570 92 70
1944 St. Louis Browns 684 587 97 0.570 92 70
1989 San Francisco Giants 699 600 99 0.569 92 70
1963 Los Angeles Dodgers 640 550 90 0.569 92 70

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1991 Atlanta Braves 749 644 105 0.569 92 70
1990 Cincinnati Reds 693 597 96 0.568 92 70
1947 Brooklyn Dodgers 774 668 106 0.567 92 70
1950 Philadelphia Phillies 722 624 98 0.566 92 70
1988 Los Angeles Dodgers 628 544 84 0.565 92 70
1987 St. Louis Cardinals 798 693 105 0.564 91 71
2005 Chicago White Sox 741 645 96 0.563 91 71
1916 Boston Red Sox 550 480 70 0.562 91 71
1992 Toronto Blue Jays 780 682 98 0.561 91 71
1993 Toronto Blue Jays 847 742 105 0.560 91 71

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1986 Boston Red Sox 794 696 98 0.560 91 71
1980 Philadelphia Phillies 728 639 89 0.559 91 71
1970 Cincinnati Reds 775 681 94 0.559 91 71
2005 Houston Astros 693 609 84 0.559 91 71
1959 Chicago White Sox 669 588 81 0.559 91 71
1932 Chicago Cubs 720 633 87 0.559 91 71
2001 New York Yankees 804 713 91 0.555 90 72
1982 St. Louis Cardinals 685 609 76 0.554 90 72
1975 Boston Red Sox 796 709 87 0.553 90 72
1945 Detroit Tigers 633 565 68 0.552 89 73

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1996 New York Yankees 871 787 84 0.546 88 74
1997 Florida Marlins 740 669 71 0.546 88 74
1964 St. Louis Cardinals 715 652 63 0.542 88 74
1983 Philadelphia Phillies 696 635 61 0.542 88 74
1961 Cincinnati Reds 710 653 57 0.538 87 75
2003 Florida Marlins 751 692 59 0.537 87 75
1984 San Diego Padres 686 634 52 0.536 87 75
1985 Kansas City Royals 687 639 48 0.533 86 76
1997 Cleveland Indians 868 815 53 0.529 86 76
1959 Los Angeles Dodgers 705 670 35 0.523 85 77
1973 New York Mets 608 588 20 0.515 83 79
1987 Minnesota Twins 786 806 -20 0.489 79 83

[VR]

Great info, thanks Cyclone.

It is interesting to see the cosmic shift in the Twins two title years. Lose big names (Brunansky, Gaetti). Replace them with better D and much improved middle relief, while losing some firepower.

They decreased by 10 runs scored, and gained back 154.

Maybe the Reds should try such a crazy formula?

[Cyclone792]

It is definitely interesting, but we also have to consider league context too when comparing the Twins v.87 to the Twins v.91.

The '87 Twins scored 786 runs, good for 4.85 runs per game, but the league average offense scored 4.90 runs per game. As an offensive unit, those Twins had a 96 OPS+. They were actually a slightly below average offensive team and ranked eighth in the AL in run scoring.

In '91, they scored 776 runs, good for 4.79 runs per game, but the league average offense dipped all the way down to 4.49 runs per game. Essentially, the '91 Twins nearly matched the '87 Twins in raw offensive output, but they did so in a league with much less total run scoring. The '91 Twins had a 107 OPS+ and were fourth in the AL in runs.

The pitching did improve greatly though too. The '87 Twins had a league average staff with a 100 ERA+, but the '91 Twins had a 115 ERA+ and pretty much had the second best pitching staff in the league behind only Toronto.

The '91 Twins were a pretty good team, essentially your run of the mill World Championship caliber team. Not near an all-time great team, but not a team that would leave you scratching your head on how they won it all.

The '87 unit is a completely different story. I'm too young to remember any of their games, but on paper they just seem like a team who was destined to go on a series of dates with lady luck and did just that.

[VR]

While '87 was truly a matter of divine intervention, the makeup of that '91 team changed dramatically without the big bats of Bruno and GMan. And yet, the offense thrived.

The Reds of the last five years have hoped to be the '87 Twins. Maybe this year they're trying the more responsible, '91 Twins approach.


Just no homer hankies when the Reds make the playoffs, please.

[redsrule2500]

Reds opening day didn't help their Pyt W/L...Somewhat of the reason why I think it's a little off to judge a lot on these. For example, a team that gives up a lot of blowouts, but seems to win a lot of games (When things go wrong they really go wrong)

[westofyou]

Somewhat of the reason why I think it's a little off to judge a lot on these.

Deja Vu every year on this subject

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11888

[M2]

The 1919 Reds may be the most underappreciated great single season team ever. I maintain the White Sox tried to beat them, got smoked and then came up with a bogus game-fixing excuse to cover themselves.

And from the year-too-early for the playoffs file, the 1902 Pirates were +335 in 139 games.

[Puffy]

Ummmmmmm, I think we need the Raisor © for any Pyth gorem thread

[D-Man]

Deja Vu every year on this subject

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11888

Well, this year's Pythagorean may be a red herring. Using BP's equivalent runs and equivalent runs against formulae, you get a result that is much more in line with the Reds' actual wins and losses.

Actual W-L:
49-44

Eq Runs Predicted W-L:
48-45

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

The most overlooked story of the first half, IMO, is how the Reds have managed to score 40 fewer runs offensively than the RC formula predicts. That's an 8% underburn, and that projects to slightly less than 80 runs over a full season.

That's a huge, huge number to attribute to randomness or normal variation.

[M2]

Another thing that jumps out at me is that only 13 of 202 pennant winners have had a pythag that would net them less than 90 wins in a 162-game season. You pretty much need to be +80 runs if you want to be the kind of team that can make the postseason do some serious damage.

Though I suppose the bar might be a bit lower in a year where only one NL team looks capable of being at least +80.

[Johnny Footstool]

I thought the prevailing theory was that a good bullpen helps a team beat its Pythagoran projections by winning a higher percentage of close games.

The '06 Reds seem to defy that theory.

[Cyclone792]

Well, I decided to take this project a step further and have since added in every MLB playoff team in history (not including one-game playoffs and the like). This list includes every AL/NL Pennant winner from 1903-2005, plus every LCS and LDS participant from 1969-2005.

If the Reds - or anybody else in the NL this season for that matter - would happen to make the playoffs and be outscored this season, they would join a list of only five teams in MLB history to achieve that feat. Those five teams represent only 1.55 percent of all the playoff teams in MLB history.

Essentially, if the Reds can make the playoffs but still manage to get outscored, we'd be achieving something quite historic this season.

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1906 Chicago Cubs 705 381 324 0.755 122 40
1939 New York Yankees 967 556 411 0.734 119 43
1927 New York Yankees 975 599 376 0.709 115 47
1942 New York Yankees 801 507 294 0.698 113 49
1944 St. Louis Cardinals 772 490 282 0.697 113 49
1942 St. Louis Cardinals 755 482 273 0.695 113 49
1909 Pittsburgh Pirates 699 447 252 0.694 112 50
1904 New York Giants 744 476 268 0.694 112 50
1905 New York Giants 778 505 273 0.688 111 51
1910 Philadelphia A's 673 441 232 0.684 111 51

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1969 Baltimore Orioles 779 517 262 0.679 110 52
1954 Cleveland Indians 746 504 242 0.672 109 53
1948 Cleveland Indians 840 568 272 0.672 109 53
2001 Seattle Mariners 927 627 300 0.672 109 53
1998 New York Yankees 965 656 309 0.670 108 54
1912 Boston Red Sox 799 544 255 0.669 108 54
1907 Chicago Cubs 572 390 182 0.668 108 54
1929 Philadelphia A's 901 615 286 0.668 108 54
1953 New York Yankees 801 547 254 0.668 108 54
1937 New York Yankees 979 671 308 0.666 108 54

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1936 New York Yankees 1065 731 334 0.666 108 54
1912 New York Giants 823 571 252 0.661 107 55
1919 Cincinnati Reds 577 401 176 0.661 107 55
1975 Cincinnati Reds 840 586 254 0.659 107 55
1911 Philadelphia A's 861 601 260 0.659 107 55
1943 St. Louis Cardinals 679 475 204 0.658 107 55
1910 Chicago Cubs 712 499 213 0.657 106 56
1974 Los Angeles Dodgers 798 561 237 0.656 106 56
1998 Atlanta Braves 826 581 245 0.656 106 56
1935 Chicago Cubs 847 597 250 0.655 106 56

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1914 Philadelphia A's 749 529 220 0.654 106 56
1917 Chicago White Sox 656 464 192 0.653 106 56
1998 Houston Astros 874 620 254 0.652 106 56
1903 Boston Pilgrims 708 504 204 0.651 105 57
1971 Baltimore Orioles 742 530 212 0.649 105 57
1947 New York Yankees 794 568 226 0.649 105 57
1911 New York Giants 756 542 214 0.648 105 57
1917 New York Giants 635 457 178 0.646 105 57
1953 Brooklyn Dodgers 955 689 266 0.645 105 57
1932 New York Yankees 1002 724 278 0.644 104 58

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1995 Cleveland Indians 840 607 233 0.644 104 58
1976 Philadelphia Phillies 770 557 213 0.644 104 58
1935 Detroit Tigers 919 665 254 0.644 104 58
1945 Chicago Cubs 735 532 203 0.644 104 58
1970 Baltimore Orioles 792 574 218 0.643 104 58
1941 Brooklyn Dodgers 800 581 219 0.642 104 58
1993 Atlanta Braves 767 559 208 0.641 104 58
1931 Philadelphia A's 858 626 232 0.640 104 58
2001 Oakland Athletics 884 645 239 0.640 104 58
1918 Chicago Cubs 538 393 145 0.640 104 58

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1968 Detroit Tigers 671 492 179 0.638 103 59
1997 Atlanta Braves 791 581 210 0.638 103 59
1938 New York Yankees 966 710 256 0.637 103 59
1956 New York Yankees 857 631 226 0.637 103 59
1986 New York Mets 783 578 205 0.635 103 59
1957 New York Yankees 723 534 189 0.635 103 59
1976 Cincinnati Reds 857 633 224 0.635 103 59
1908 Chicago Cubs 624 461 163 0.635 103 59
1934 Detroit Tigers 958 708 250 0.635 103 59
1961 New York Yankees 827 612 215 0.634 103 59

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1909 Detroit Tigers 666 493 173 0.634 103 59
1949 Brooklyn Dodgers 879 651 228 0.634 103 59
1972 Pittsburgh Pirates 691 512 179 0.634 103 59
1973 Baltimore Orioles 754 561 193 0.632 102 60
1999 Arizona Diamondbacks 908 676 232 0.632 102 60
1913 Philadelphia A's 794 592 202 0.631 102 60
1955 New York Yankees 762 569 193 0.631 102 60
1940 Cincinnati Reds 707 528 179 0.630 102 60
1921 New York Yankees 948 708 240 0.630 102 60
1915 Boston Red Sox 668 499 169 0.630 102 60

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1924 New York Giants 857 641 216 0.630 102 60
1920 Cleveland Indians 857 642 215 0.629 102 60
1946 Boston Red Sox 792 594 198 0.629 102 60
1954 New York Giants 732 550 182 0.628 102 60
1913 New York Giants 684 515 169 0.627 102 60
1931 St. Louis Cardinals 815 614 201 0.627 102 60
1923 New York Yankees 823 622 201 0.625 101 61
1950 New York Yankees 914 691 223 0.625 101 61
1972 Oakland A's 604 457 147 0.625 101 61
2002 Anaheim Angels 851 644 207 0.625 101 61

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1988 New York Mets 703 532 171 0.625 101 61
1977 Los Angeles Dodgers 769 582 187 0.625 101 61
1921 New York Giants 840 637 203 0.624 101 61
1955 Brooklyn Dodgers 857 650 207 0.624 101 61
1971 Pittsburgh Pirates 788 599 189 0.623 101 61
1958 New York Yankees 759 577 182 0.623 101 61
1941 New York Yankees 830 631 199 0.623 101 61
1946 St. Louis Cardinals 712 545 167 0.620 100 62
1985 St. Louis Cardinals 747 572 175 0.620 100 62
1963 New York Yankees 714 547 167 0.620 100 62

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1952 New York Yankees 727 557 170 0.620 100 62
1928 New York Yankees 894 685 209 0.619 100 62
1904 Boston Pilgrims 608 466 142 0.619 100 62
1907 Detroit Tigers 694 532 162 0.619 100 62
1949 New York Yankees 829 637 192 0.618 100 62
1979 Baltimore Orioles 757 582 175 0.618 100 62
2004 St. Louis Cardinals 855 659 196 0.617 100 62
1929 Chicago Cubs 982 758 224 0.616 100 62
1997 New York Yankees 891 688 203 0.616 100 62
1922 New York Giants 852 658 194 0.616 100 62

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1903 Pittsburgh Pirates 793 613 180 0.616 100 62
1985 Toronto Blue Jays 759 588 171 0.615 100 62
1988 Oakland A's 800 620 180 0.615 100 62
1965 Minnesota Twins 774 600 174 0.614 100 62
1984 Detroit Tigers 829 643 186 0.614 99 63
1939 Cincinnati Reds 767 595 172 0.614 99 63
2002 New York Yankees 897 697 200 0.613 99 63
1990 Oakland A's 733 570 163 0.613 99 63
1952 Brooklyn Dodgers 775 603 172 0.613 99 63
1951 New York Yankees 798 621 177 0.613 99 63

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1930 St. Louis Cardinals 1004 784 220 0.611 99 63
1969 Minnesota Twins 790 618 172 0.610 99 63
1933 Washington Senators 850 665 185 0.610 99 63
1977 New York Yankees 831 651 180 0.610 99 63
1925 Pittsburgh Pirates 912 715 197 0.610 99 63
1962 San Francisco Giants 878 690 188 0.608 99 63
1915 Philadelphia Phillies 589 463 126 0.608 99 63
2002 San Francisco Giants 783 616 167 0.608 98 64
1999 Atlanta Braves 840 661 179 0.608 98 64
2005 St. Louis Cardinals 805 634 171 0.608 98 64

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1976 New York Yankees 730 575 155 0.607 98 64
1972 Cincinnati Reds 707 557 150 0.607 98 64
1928 St. Louis Cardinals 807 636 171 0.607 98 64
1978 Los Angeles Dodgers 727 573 154 0.607 98 64
1977 Philadelphia Phillies 847 668 179 0.607 98 64
1930 Philadelphia A's 951 751 200 0.606 98 64
1905 Philadelphia A's 623 492 131 0.606 98 64
1948 Boston Braves 739 584 155 0.606 98 64
1964 New York Yankees 730 577 153 0.606 98 64
1981 Los Angeles Dodgers 450 356 94 0.606 98 64

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1978 New York Yankees 735 582 153 0.605 98 64
1977 Kansas City Royals 822 651 171 0.605 98 64
1975 Pittsburgh Pirates 712 565 147 0.604 98 64
1957 Milwaukee Braves 772 613 159 0.604 98 64
1923 New York Giants 854 679 175 0.603 98 64
1966 Baltimore Orioles 755 601 154 0.603 98 64
2002 Atlanta Braves 708 565 143 0.602 97 65
1975 Oakland Athletics 758 606 152 0.601 97 65
1974 Oakland A's 689 551 138 0.601 97 65
1920 Brooklyn Dodgers 660 528 132 0.601 97 65

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1919 Chicago White Sox 667 534 133 0.600 97 65
1967 St. Louis Cardinals 695 557 138 0.600 97 65
1958 Milwaukee Braves 675 541 134 0.600 97 65
1918 Boston Red Sox 474 380 94 0.600 97 65
1982 Milwaukee Brewers 891 717 174 0.598 97 65
1916 Brooklyn Dodgers 585 471 114 0.598 97 65
1927 Pittsburgh Pirates 817 659 158 0.597 97 65
1925 Washington Senators 829 669 160 0.597 97 65
1906 Chicago White Sox 570 460 110 0.597 97 65
1980 New York Yankees 820 662 158 0.597 97 65

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1940 Detroit Tigers 888 717 171 0.597 97 65
2000 San Francisco Giants 925 747 178 0.597 97 65
1996 Cleveland Indians 952 769 183 0.596 97 65
1960 Pittsburgh Pirates 734 593 141 0.596 97 65
1966 Los Angeles Dodgers 606 490 116 0.596 97 65
1989 Oakland A's 712 576 136 0.596 97 65
2004 Boston Red Sox 949 768 181 0.596 96 66
1968 St. Louis Cardinals 583 472 111 0.595 96 66
1933 New York Giants 636 515 121 0.595 96 66
1943 New York Yankees 669 542 127 0.595 96 66

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1973 Oakland A's 758 615 143 0.594 96 66
1924 Washington Senators 755 613 142 0.594 96 66
1999 New York Yankees 900 731 169 0.594 96 66
1983 Chicago White Sox 800 650 150 0.594 96 66
1970 Minnesota Twins 744 605 139 0.594 96 66
1981 New York Yankees 421 343 78 0.593 96 66
1922 New York Yankees 758 618 140 0.592 96 66
2003 Atlanta Braves 907 740 167 0.592 96 66
1983 Baltimore Orioles 799 652 147 0.592 96 66
1971 Oakland Athletics 691 564 127 0.592 96 66

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2003 New York Yankees 877 716 161 0.592 96 66
2002 Oakland Athletics 800 654 146 0.591 96 66
1999 Houston Astros 823 675 148 0.590 96 66
1987 Detroit Tigers 896 735 161 0.590 96 66
1951 New York Giants 781 641 140 0.589 95 67
1934 St. Louis Cardinals 799 656 143 0.589 95 67
1937 New York Giants 732 602 130 0.589 95 67
1991 Pittsburgh Pirates 768 632 136 0.588 95 67
2002 Arizona Diamondbacks 819 674 145 0.588 95 67
1982 California Angels 814 670 144 0.588 95 67

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2002 St. Louis Cardinals 787 648 139 0.588 95 67
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks 818 677 141 0.586 95 67
1978 Philadelphia Phillies 708 586 122 0.586 95 67
1979 Pittsburgh Pirates 775 643 132 0.585 95 67
1926 St. Louis Cardinals 817 678 139 0.585 95 67
2004 Atlanta Braves 803 668 135 0.583 95 67
1998 Boston Red Sox 876 729 147 0.583 94 68
1962 New York Yankees 817 680 137 0.583 94 68
1999 New York Mets 853 711 142 0.583 94 68
1995 Cincinnati Reds 747 623 124 0.582 94 68

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1914 Boston Braves 657 548 109 0.582 94 68
1992 Atlanta Braves 682 569 113 0.582 94 68
1956 Brooklyn Dodgers 720 601 119 0.582 94 68
1936 New York Giants 742 621 121 0.581 94 68
1995 Atlanta Braves 645 540 105 0.581 94 68
2003 Oakland Athletics 768 643 125 0.581 94 68
1973 Cincinnati Reds 741 621 120 0.580 94 68
1996 Atlanta Braves 773 648 125 0.580 94 68
1997 Baltimore Orioles 812 681 131 0.580 94 68
1938 Chicago Cubs 713 598 115 0.580 94 68

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1981 Houston Astros 394 331 63 0.579 94 68
1991 Minnesota Twins 776 652 124 0.579 94 68
2001 St. Louis Cardinals 814 684 130 0.579 94 68
1960 New York Yankees 746 627 119 0.579 94 68
1926 New York Yankees 847 713 134 0.578 94 68
2003 Boston Red Sox 961 809 152 0.578 94 68
1993 Philadelphia Phillies 877 740 137 0.577 93 69
1990 Pittsburgh Pirates 733 619 114 0.577 93 69
2005 Anaheim Angels of LA 761 643 118 0.576 93 69
2003 San Francisco Giants 755 638 117 0.576 93 69

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1908 Detroit Tigers 647 547 100 0.576 93 69
1988 Boston Red Sox 813 689 124 0.575 93 69
1998 San Diego Padres 749 635 114 0.575 93 69
1985 Los Angeles Dodgers 682 579 103 0.574 93 69
1997 Houston Astros 777 660 117 0.574 93 69
1967 Boston Red Sox 722 614 108 0.574 93 69
1999 Cleveland Indians 1009 860 149 0.573 93 69
1978 Kansas City Royals 743 634 109 0.572 93 69
1987 San Francisco Giants 783 669 114 0.571 93 69
1993 Chicago White Sox 776 664 112 0.571 92 70

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1969 New York Mets 632 541 91 0.571 92 70
1965 Los Angeles Dodgers 608 521 87 0.570 92 70
1976 Kansas City Royals 713 611 102 0.570 92 70
1980 Kansas City Royals 809 694 115 0.570 92 70
2000 Chicago White Sox 978 839 139 0.570 92 70
1944 St. Louis Browns 684 587 97 0.570 92 70
1989 San Francisco Giants 699 600 99 0.569 92 70
2000 Oakland Athletics 947 813 134 0.569 92 70
1992 Pittsburgh Pirates 693 595 98 0.569 92 70
1999 Boston Red Sox 836 718 118 0.569 92 70

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1963 Los Angeles Dodgers 640 550 90 0.569 92 70
1991 Atlanta Braves 749 644 105 0.569 92 70
2000 Seattle Mariners 907 780 127 0.569 92 70
1996 Texas Rangers 928 799 129 0.568 92 70
1990 Cincinnati Reds 693 597 96 0.568 92 70
1947 Brooklyn Dodgers 774 668 106 0.567 92 70
1984 Chicago Cubs 762 658 104 0.567 92 70
1950 Philadelphia Phillies 722 624 98 0.566 92 70
1988 Los Angeles Dodgers 628 544 84 0.565 92 70
1987 St. Louis Cardinals 798 693 105 0.564 91 71

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2000 St. Louis Cardinals 887 771 116 0.564 91 71
2004 Houston Astros 803 698 105 0.564 91 71
1986 Houston Astros 654 569 85 0.563 91 71
1986 California Angels 786 684 102 0.563 91 71
2005 Chicago White Sox 741 645 96 0.563 91 71
1916 Boston Red Sox 550 480 70 0.562 91 71
1992 Toronto Blue Jays 780 682 98 0.561 91 71
1974 Pittsburgh Pirates 751 657 94 0.561 91 71
1993 Toronto Blue Jays 847 742 105 0.560 91 71
2005 Atlanta Braves 769 674 95 0.560 91 71

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1986 Boston Red Sox 794 696 98 0.560 91 71
1980 Philadelphia Phillies 728 639 89 0.559 91 71
2004 Anaheim Angels 836 734 102 0.559 91 71
1970 Cincinnati Reds 775 681 94 0.559 91 71
2005 Houston Astros 693 609 84 0.559 91 71
1959 Chicago White Sox 669 588 81 0.559 91 71
1932 Chicago Cubs 720 633 87 0.559 91 71
1981 Oakland Athletics 458 403 55 0.558 90 72
1979 Cincinnati Reds 731 644 87 0.558 90 72
2000 Atlanta Braves 810 714 96 0.557 90 72

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2001 Atlanta Braves 729 643 86 0.557 90 72
1995 Boston Red Sox 791 698 93 0.557 90 72
1996 San Diego Padres 771 682 89 0.556 90 72
2005 Boston Red Sox 910 805 105 0.556 90 72
2001 New York Yankees 804 713 91 0.555 90 72
1979 California Angels 866 768 98 0.555 90 72
1989 Chicago Cubs 702 623 79 0.554 90 72
1982 St. Louis Cardinals 685 609 76 0.554 90 72
1981 Montreal Expos 443 394 49 0.553 90 72
1995 Seattle Mariners 796 708 88 0.553 90 72

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2005 New York Yankees 886 789 97 0.553 90 72
1989 Toronto Blue Jays 731 651 80 0.553 90 72
1975 Boston Red Sox 796 709 87 0.553 90 72
1945 Detroit Tigers 633 565 68 0.552 89 73
2004 Los Angeles Dodgers 761 684 77 0.549 89 73
1997 Seattle Mariners 925 833 92 0.548 89 73
2004 New York Yankees 897 808 89 0.548 89 73
1992 Oakland Athletics 745 672 73 0.547 89 73
1996 New York Yankees 871 787 84 0.546 88 74
1997 Florida Marlins 740 669 71 0.546 88 74

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2001 Houston Astros 847 769 78 0.544 88 74
1999 Texas Rangers 945 859 86 0.544 88 74
1991 Toronto Blue Jays 684 622 62 0.543 88 74
1970 Pittsburgh Pirates 729 664 65 0.543 88 74
1964 St. Louis Cardinals 715 652 63 0.542 88 74
1971 San Francisco Giants 706 644 62 0.542 88 74
1983 Philadelphia Phillies 696 635 61 0.542 88 74
1969 Atlanta Braves 691 631 60 0.541 88 74
2001 Cleveland Indians 897 821 76 0.540 88 74
1998 Cleveland Indians 850 779 71 0.540 87 75

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

2004 Minnesota Twins 780 715 65 0.540 87 75
1995 New York Yankees 749 688 61 0.539 87 75
1961 Cincinnati Reds 710 653 57 0.538 87 75
1972 Detroit Tigers 558 514 44 0.538 87 75
2003 Florida Marlins 751 692 59 0.537 87 75
1984 San Diego Padres 686 634 52 0.536 87 75
1980 Houston Astros 637 589 48 0.536 87 75
1998 Texas Rangers 940 871 69 0.535 87 75
2002 Minnesota Twins 768 712 56 0.535 87 75
1996 Los Angeles Dodgers 703 652 51 0.534 87 75

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1974 Baltimore Orioles 659 612 47 0.534 86 76
1985 Kansas City Royals 687 639 48 0.533 86 76
1996 St. Louis Cardinals 759 706 53 0.533 86 76
1981 Milwaukee Brewers 493 459 34 0.533 86 76
1983 Los Angeles Dodgers 654 609 45 0.533 86 76
1997 Cleveland Indians 868 815 53 0.529 86 76
2003 Chicago Cubs 724 683 41 0.527 85 77
2003 Minnesota Twins 801 758 43 0.525 85 77
1990 Boston Red Sox 699 664 35 0.523 85 77
1982 Atlanta Braves 739 702 37 0.523 85 77

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1959 Los Angeles Dodgers 705 670 35 0.523 85 77
1996 Baltimore Orioles 949 903 46 0.523 85 77
1998 Chicago Cubs 831 792 39 0.522 85 77
1995 Los Angeles Dodgers 634 609 25 0.518 84 78
1981 Philadelphia Phillies 491 472 19 0.518 84 78
1973 New York Mets 608 588 20 0.515 83 79
1995 Colorado Rockies 785 783 2 0.501 81 81

Year Team Scored Allowed +/- Pyt Pct. W L

1997 San Francisco Giants 784 793 -9 0.495 80 82
1984 Kansas City Royals 673 686 -13 0.491 80 82
1981 Kansas City Royals 397 405 -8 0.491 80 82
1987 Minnesota Twins 786 806 -20 0.489 79 83
2005 San Diego Padres 684 726 -42 0.473 77 85

[vaticanplum]

If the Reds - or anybody else in the NL this season for that matter - would happen to make the playoffs and be outscored this season, they would join a list of only five teams in MLB history to achieve that feat. Those five teams represent only 1.55 percent of all the playoff teams in MLB history.

Essentially, if the Reds can make the playoffs but still manage to get outscored, we'd be achieving something quite historic this season.

Cyclone, do you think this will change in the future due to the current playoff system? Until ten years ago, to go to the playoffs you had to win the division outright, and against up to seven teams in competition if I recall correctly. Of course, we also have more teams competing right now, but one could argue that that thins the talent and doesn't really make it stiffer competition.

I like the current playoff system, I like the wild card, and I think that any team that makes it to the playoffs has some kind of chance to win it all. But I have wondered in the past if it allows weaker teams to get the the playoffs than used to be the case. And when the disparity in leagues is as skewed as it is right now, that could mean an even bigger difference.

[Cyclone792]

Cyclone, do you think this will change in the future due to the current playoff system? Until ten years ago, to go to the playoffs you had to win the division outright, and against up to seven teams in competition if I recall correctly. Of course, we also have more teams competing right now, but one could argue that that thins the talent and doesn't really make it stiffer competition.

I like the current playoff system, I like the wild card, and I think that any team that makes it to the playoffs has some kind of chance to win it all. But I have wondered in the past if it allows weaker teams to get the the playoffs than used to be the case. And when the disparity in leagues is as skewed as it is right now, that could mean an even bigger difference.

It will change slightly due to the expansion of playoffs, but I think it will only go from pretty much impossible to still quite rare. How much it will change remains to be seen, but I don't think it's something to expect yearly. Perhaps an average of one team every decade or so may be reasonable; we just seem to be in an odd stretch where we had the Padres last season and now presumably one or more teams this season may make the playoffs while being outscored. I think it's a combination of a statistical oddity and the fact that the NL as a whole has been weaker recently that we're seeing this in 2005 and 2006, but time will tell. Interleague play does add an odd twist in when the strength differential of the AL and NL is one-sided as it's been at least this season.

Before the creation of even the LCS, the worst team by pythag measures to win the league and reach the World Series (which was the only playoff format before 1969) was the 1959 Dodgers, who went 88-68 but had a pythag record of 82-74 (and a per 162 game pythag of 85-77).

In wildcard play, we've had the 1997 San Francisco Giants and last season's Padres. In LCS play, we had the 1987 Twins who went on to win the World Series, and a pair of Royals squads in 1981 and 1984. It should be noted that 1981 was the goofy season where playoff qualifers only had to win their division over about a 50+ game season, and the Reds who had the overall best NL record that season didn't even make the playoffs.

If you exclude the goofy 1981 season, we've still only had four teams who have been outscored since 1969 to make the playoffs over a normal, full-scheduled season, and that's out of roughly 200 teams.