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View Full Version : Baseball America's New Top 25 Prospect List includes Bailey, Bruce



jmcclain19
07-18-2006, 04:59 PM
Baseball America released their mid season Top 25 prospects list today, and two Reds players find themselves on it.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/features/261965.html

If want to read the whole list, you've got to go shell out some greenbacks to Baseball America


10. Homer Bailey, rhp Reds 6-5, 2.67 (AA) Best Reds pitching prospect since Mario Soto?

15. Jay Bruce, of Reds .322/.388/.581 (Lo A) Not far behind Upton/Maybin duo in Midwest League.

Joey Votto was listed in the "Just missing the cut" list of 15 or so players, meaning he's likely a Top 50 prospect at the end of the year.

Benihana
07-18-2006, 05:09 PM
I would love to know the rest of the top 15:evil:

TOBTTReds
07-18-2006, 05:52 PM
Joey Votto was on the "Just missing the cut" list.

guttle11
07-18-2006, 05:54 PM
Just for kicks, where do they have Phillip Hughes? Seems to me Homer and Hughes have very similar numbers.

edabbs44
07-18-2006, 06:02 PM
Hughes is right behind Homer.

Pretty impressive season so far for the farm. Depth is still a question mark, but the top of the system is producing. Stubbs, on the other hand...:evil:

cincyinco
07-18-2006, 06:19 PM
Stubbs is def. a wildcard edabbs, but you know what? I was originally PO'd about the pick - I wanted Lincecum baaaaaad - but there are some things I like about Stubbs. His speed, his OBP, his defense.

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

edabbs44
07-18-2006, 06:37 PM
Stubbs is def. a wildcard edabbs, but you know what? I was originally PO'd about the pick - I wanted Lincecum baaaaaad - but there are some things I like about Stubbs. His speed, his OBP, his defense.

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.
I would be disappointed if a top 10 pick's ceiling is JP with OBP. And the level where he is playing is worrying the hell out of me.

Outshined_One
07-18-2006, 06:46 PM
If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

Considering Stubbs supposedly had some of the best power of any prospect in this draft, that would be a heck of a disappointment.

Doc. Scott
07-18-2006, 07:49 PM
Stubbs is def. a wildcard edabbs, but you know what? I was originally PO'd about the pick - I wanted Lincecum baaaaaad - but there are some things I like about Stubbs. His speed, his OBP, his defense.

If he could become Juan Pierre with on base skills, I would be one very happy camper.

Stubbs won't end up too much like Juan Pierre no matter what he does. He'll never be an extreme contact hitter, most likely. Downside is more like a Gary Pettis or Tom Goodwin, with a high upside of Carlos Beltran. You also hear names like Torii Hunter, Andy Van Slyke, Devon White, and Mike Cameron tossed around as good-case comparisons. The other direction that's possible is down Szymanski Boulevard with the strikeouts.

Now, I know that's a pretty freakishly wide range, but Stubbs' glove and speed are his only two unquestioned tools. The other three are more "under construction".

I don't think the guy's off to a terribly bad start, as power is the last tool to develop (and he is getting extra-base hits, witness the three doubles he had in one game earlier this week), but let's hope he's just not in the groove yet.

StillFunkyB
07-18-2006, 07:53 PM
Stubbs won't end up too much like Juan Pierre no matter what he does. He'll never be an extreme contact hitter, most likely. Downside is more like a Gary Pettis or Tom Goodwin, with a high upside of Carlos Beltran. You also hear names like Torii Hunter, Andy Van Slyke, Devon White, and Mike Cameron tossed around as good-case comparisons.

Now, I know that's a pretty freakishly wide range, but Stubbs' glove and speed are his only two unquestioned tools. The other three are more "under construction".

I don't think the guy's off to a terribly bad start, as power is the last tool to develop (and he is getting extra-base hits, witness the three doubles he had in one game earlier this week), but let's hope he's just not in the groove yet.

I'll take me an Andy Van Slyke any day of the week.

HBP
07-19-2006, 11:14 AM
15. Jay Bruce, of Reds .322/.388/.581 (Lo A) Not far behind Upton/Maybin duo in Midwest League.


I can't figure out why Bruce is "behind" Maybin and Upton. Even though they were drafted higher (Maybin by what, 2 picks?), Jay's production has been significantly better.

dougdirt
07-19-2006, 12:55 PM
I asked that question to a few guys at BA and basically it came down to, and I am paraphrasing now "With only half of a season of stats, we cant just jump him over them if they are producing at a decent to good level just yet becuase they came into the draft rated much higher"
Both of them have the percieved "higher cieling" than Jay does, both also will probably play CF in the majors and Jay will probably be playing right field or left field. CF doesnt quite have the power that the corner spots do, so if you are producing very well at the CF position, it is more valuable than a good corner position.

That said, I would take Jay Bruce over Cameron Maybin for sure right now...Upton, I dont think I can do that just yet.

Aronchis
07-19-2006, 01:46 PM
Maybin looks to me a big slugger, or in essense a more powerfull version of Mike Cameron. He will strikeout a ton, but hit many Johnsons and get alot of walks. Plus he will play a plus CF. Excellent prospect.

Bruce IMO is going to be a better contact hitter, a lesser athlete/RF, less power and MAYBE less walks. He looks to be about at 50 walks this year, I expect that to improve next year.

Maybin is going to be a trend setting player like Griffey, while Bruce is just the next Larry Walker. Walker was a nice player, but take him outside Coors, he wasn't all that.

RedsIn07
07-20-2006, 03:39 AM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/261983.html
Q&A concerning the new rankings, Reds comments below:

Q: Ben S from Newington, CT asks:
Besides the draft hype and scouts drooling over Upton and Maybin since high school, what sets Jay Bruce apart from that Elite Duo of OF Prospects? So far, hes putting up better all around numbers than BOTH Upton and Maybin, and at the same age. His makeup and additude is off the charts, and there still remains questions about how much full effort Upton puts into his everyday play. Since your midseason 25 is based on the numbers and it said quote "Not far behind UptonMaybin duo in Midwest League." my question is, what can Bruce ever do to put himself with, or ahead of these other two elite prospects?

A: John Manuel: Good question Ben; for me, some of it is physical. Upton has more present strength, and Maybin looks like a big leaguer right now physically. I've used this line before but minus the 6-foot-8 part, Maybin looks like LeBron James to me, just so broad-shouldered and physical at such a young age. I just think Bruce isn't as physical as those guys right now (even though he's no shrimp himself), and that's why he's considered a bit behind them. But there's no reason he can't overtake them, and the higher up the ladder prospects the go, the more performance matters. He has significant tools and significant talent, obviously. If he translates his tools into performance more at higher levels, then he'll be rated ahead of them. Right now he is, but he's also a Texan who came into pro ball with a lot more polish than, say Maybin. He SHOULD be outperforming Maybin. I don't know what Upton's excuse is for not performing, but everyone still says the supreme talent is in there, and it shows itself from time to time.

Q: Deywane from Memphis asks:
If your list included 100 prospects where would Joey Votto rank and would Drew Stubbs get any consideration for the list?

A: John Manuel: Votto would; he got much love from scouts at the Futures Game. Stubbs would not, he needs to hit consistently with wood to earn consideration.

Q: Mark from Davis, Ca asks:
is there a chance we see Bailey pitching for the Reds this year, or even next year?

A: John Manuel: I could see him up this year, though I think the Reds will wait until next year.

Q: Joshua from Springfield, NJ asks:
How do bailey and hughes compare to the top pitching prospects from the beginning of the year who have since graduated to the bigs (ie liriano, verlander, billingsley, cain, etc)?

A: John Manuel:
Another good Q. Hard to think either one will be as dominant as Liriano and Verlander have been; those guys are real and spectacular. I'd put them closer to Billingsley and Cain, a little more raw (especially Bailey). Hughes has polish and stuff but I don't see him as being as electric as any of the others. he could be the most productive of the group but I don't think of him as electric. Elbert, as I have said, also belongs in this discussion for me.

Q: Stu from Minnapolis asks:
Does it look like the Reds farm system is starting to show a little life?

A: John Manuel:
Absolutely. Great strides made thanks to guys picked in the last three drafts. They have legit guys from Double-A on down and have had very few flameouts this year (Szymanski, Valiquette and Dickerson stick out as disappointments). Encouraging signs. Still progress to be made but lots of progress.

fearofpopvol1
07-21-2006, 10:49 PM
Who is considered the #1 prospect overall? Anyone know?

dougdirt
07-21-2006, 11:40 PM
I believe it was Alex Gordon if memory serves me correct.

edabbs44
07-21-2006, 11:45 PM
I believe it was Alex Gordon if memory serves me correct.
Drew is #1. Gordon is #5.

dougdirt
07-21-2006, 11:56 PM
Ahh, yes, Im a moron. Stephen Drew at #1 is laughable though. Of course, if I recall that was just what Manual thought, it wasnt the entire poll of all the writers, correct?

edabbs44
07-22-2006, 12:12 AM
Ahh, yes, Im a moron. Stephen Drew at #1 is laughable though. Of course, if I recall that was just what Manual thought, it wasnt the entire poll of all the writers, correct?
I believe so.

Aronchis
07-22-2006, 12:27 AM
Looks like the consensus on Bailey is a #2. Better than Billingsley, probably not as Verlander. So the Reds still don't have a true number 1 in the pipeline, though they are so rare.

dougdirt
07-22-2006, 12:36 AM
Aronchis, I disagree with that. I dont know where you got the "consensus" from. There isnt a consensus of Bailey being a #2 and really, I havent seen anywhere say that he is a #2. So please show me.

Aronchis
07-22-2006, 12:42 AM
Aronchis, I disagree with that. I dont know where you got the "consensus" from. There isnt a consensus of Bailey being a #2 and really, I havent seen anywhere say that he is a #2. So please show me.

Essentially Manual just did. Saying that Bailey isn't on Verlander's level is telling. Granted, those are my opinions, but I think he was indicating that. Though he also indicated he didn't think Hughes was even a 1 or 2, but more like a 3.

dougdirt
07-22-2006, 12:44 AM
I dont think Hughes is a 1 or a 2 either. Bailey isnt on Verlanders level yet, but he is on his way. Where did Manual say that? Also, since when is one persons word the consensus?

nmculbreth
07-22-2006, 12:49 AM
Looks like the consensus on Bailey is a #2. Better than Billingsley, probably not as Verlander. So the Reds still don't have a true number 1 in the pipeline, though they are so rare.

He's considered a top ten prospect in baseball and just about every source I've read considers him a "high ceiling" pitcher, how does that make him a #2 type pitcher? Am I missing something?

RedsFanatic
07-22-2006, 12:58 AM
From the BA handbook.

#1 Pitcher:
two plus pitches-->Bailey has a plus fastball and a potentially plus curveball
average third pitch-->Bailey's changeup
plus-plus command-->Bailey has had very good command this year, very good
plus makeup-Bailey seems to have it.

He def looks like a #1. He arguably has the most potential out of any pitcher in the minor leagues.

fearofpopvol1
07-22-2006, 01:13 AM
[QUOTE=RedsFanatic]From the BA handbook.

#1 Pitcher:
two plus pitches-->Bailey has a plus fastball and a potentially plus curveball
average third pitch-->Bailey's changeup
QUOTE]

Yeah, but potential isn't anything until it's reached. I'm also not sure at this juncture I would even consider his changeup to be average.

I hope both of those pitches develop, though.

dougdirt
07-22-2006, 01:21 AM
I think his curve is at least above average right now. When he has control of it, it is a plus pitch as is. His change up is mediocre at best, but apparently it was working tonight.

ChatterRed
07-22-2006, 01:52 PM
Maybin looks to me a big slugger, or in essense a more powerfull version of Mike Cameron. He will strikeout a ton, but hit many Johnsons and get alot of walks. Plus he will play a plus CF. Excellent prospect.

Bruce IMO is going to be a better contact hitter, a lesser athlete/RF, less power and MAYBE less walks. He looks to be about at 50 walks this year, I expect that to improve next year.

Maybin is going to be a trend setting player like Griffey, while Bruce is just the next Larry Walker. Walker was a nice player, but take him outside Coors, he wasn't all that.


Uh..........you don't remember Walker with the Expos? (cough)

BrooklynRedz
07-22-2006, 03:23 PM
[QUOTE=RedsFanatic]From the BA handbook.

#1 Pitcher:
two plus pitches-->Bailey has a plus fastball and a potentially plus curveball
average third pitch-->Bailey's changeup
QUOTE]

Yeah, but potential isn't anything until it's reached. I'm also not sure at this juncture I would even consider his changeup to be average.

I hope both of those pitches develop, though.

I don't think anyone is suggesting he is a No. 1 now...rather, his ceiling is a No. 1. That's potential. That's why he's in the Minors.

Caveat Emperor
07-22-2006, 03:54 PM
Essentially Manual just did. Saying that Bailey isn't on Verlander's level is telling. Granted, those are my opinions, but I think he was indicating that. Though he also indicated he didn't think Hughes was even a 1 or 2, but more like a 3.

You'll go broke in a hurry making prognostications that pitchers are guaranteed to be as good as Liriano and Verlander -- especially if you want to be taken seriously as a minor league talent evaluator. I took it to read: Yeah, there's a good chance he's going to be great, but Liriano and Verlander are great right now.

Call him whatever you want, but the curve's been set insanely high on #1 talent if a cat throwing 94-98MPH routinely with a plus curve and developing change that runs 12+ MPH on the velocity differential isn't seen as a potential #1 anymore.